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"date": "2026-05-17",
"timestamp": "2026-05-17T23:50:29.531Z",
"index": {
"disagreement": 52,
"geoRisk": 0,
"breadth": 0.36,
"activity": 14
},
"traditional": [
{
"symbol": "SPY",
"price": 737.65,
"changePct": -1.39
},
{
"symbol": "QQQ",
"price": 706.4,
"changePct": -1.79
},
{
"symbol": "IWM",
"price": 276.72,
"changePct": -2.65
},
{
"symbol": "VIXY",
"price": 27.06,
"changePct": 1.35
},
{
"symbol": "SHY",
"price": 82.08,
"changePct": -0.09
},
{
"symbol": "IEF",
"price": 93.5,
"changePct": -0.81
},
{
"symbol": "TLT",
"price": 83.66,
"changePct": -1.51
},
{
"symbol": "HYG",
"price": 79.57,
"changePct": -0.36
},
{
"symbol": "GLD",
"price": 417.33,
"changePct": -2.27
},
{
"symbol": "USO",
"price": 147.99,
"changePct": 4.13
},
{
"symbol": "UNG",
"price": 11.33,
"changePct": 1.25
},
{
"symbol": "CPER",
"price": 38.17,
"changePct": -4.64
},
{
"symbol": "UUP",
"price": 27.77,
"changePct": 0.58
},
{
"symbol": "FXE",
"price": 107.21,
"changePct": -0.42
},
{
"symbol": "XLE",
"price": 59.43,
"changePct": 2.32
},
{
"symbol": "EEM",
"price": 65.05,
"changePct": -3.53
},
{
"symbol": "IBIT",
"price": 44.79,
"changePct": -2.9
},
{
"symbol": "ETHE",
"price": 18.01,
"changePct": -3.33
}
],
"topics": [],
"topEdges": [],
"divergences": [
{
"description": "MI-03 House Election Winner overshooting IL-17 House Election Winner — 47¢ gap [US Elections]",
"implication": "",
"affectedTickers": []
},
{
"description": "What price will Solana hit in? lagging Dogecoin price? — 26¢ gap [Crypto]",
"implication": "",
"affectedTickers": []
},
{
"description": "Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of June? overshooting natural gas get above per million BTU… — 19¢ gap [Oil & energy]",
"implication": "",
"affectedTickers": []
}
],
"markdown": "# World (2026-05-17 23:30 UTC)\nRegime: Broad up-skew — markets resolving toward higher probability\nSimpleFunctions Index: Disagree 51 | GeoRisk 0 | Breadth +0.36 | Activity 14\nBaseline: last 12h\n\n## [divergence] MI-03 House Election Winner overshooting IL-17 House Election Winner — 47¢ gap [US Elections]\n- lhs: {\"name\":\"IL-17 House Election Winner: Republican Party\",\"Δ\":\"-36c\"}\n- rhs: {\"name\":\"MI-03 House Election Winner: Democratic Party\",\"Δ\":\"87c\"}\n- gap: -47\n- theme: US Elections\n- triggerTicker: 0x59946d130f7e7093e3463db4221f6e620f670b45ff4acd42def5e29742bee074\n- laggingTicker: 0xf95a13ab7db445e3aa5e668fce91115b480cd7b628620e7b5a4bb39d8ad27c55\n → why? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-e2t3st`\n → IL-17 House Election Winner: Republican Party spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n → 6h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`\n\n## [divergence] What price will Solana hit in? lagging Dogecoin price? — 26¢ gap [Crypto]\n- lhs: {\"name\":\"Dogecoin price on May 22, 2026?: $0.105 or above\",\"Δ\":\"59c\"}\n- rhs: {\"name\":\"What price will Solana hit in 2026?: ↑ 280\",\"Δ\":\"9c\"}\n- gap: 26\n- theme: Crypto\n- triggerTicker: KXDOGED-26MAY2217-T0.1049999\n- laggingTicker: 0x5c1d1a216a212d9a99177c940685192888473c890fa704427321bcd02a869ab8\n → why? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-e8jlyh`\n → Dogecoin price on May 22, 2026?: $0.105 or above spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n → 6h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`\n\n## [divergence] Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of June? overshooting natural gas get above per million BTU… — 19¢ gap [Oil & energy]\n- lhs: {\"name\":\"Will the price of natural gas get above $7.00 per million BTU before January 1, \",\"Δ\":\"-32c\"}\n- rhs: {\"name\":\"Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of June?: ↓ $85\",\"Δ\":\"48c\"}\n- gap: -19\n- theme: Oil & energy\n- triggerTicker: KXNGASMAX-26DEC31-P7.00\n- laggingTicker: 0xa4c71c6f43ceb1dec4b91e60cf22a4480f0b73683a3ea4aaba812ca20cba17e3\n → why? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-id1lqg`\n → Will the price of natural gas get above $7.00 per million BTU before January 1, spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n → 6h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`\n\n## [consensus_break] at least 3 judges be confirmed in May?: 5 markets deeply split (σ=44¢, range 93¢)\n- seriesKey: KXJUDGECOUNT\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"KXJUDGECOUNT-26MAY-0\",\"title\":\"Will at least 1 judges be confirmed in May 2026?: At least 1\",\"price\":96},{\"ticker\":\"KXJUDGECOUNT-26MAY-1\",\"title\":\"Will at least 2 ju...\n- dispersion: 44\n- range: 93\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-4ed4u4`\n\n## [consensus_break] Euro area GDP growth rate QoQ flash for Q1 b…: 3 markets deeply split (σ=44¢, range 93¢)\n- seriesKey: KXEZGDPQOQF\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"KXEZGDPQOQF-26JUN05-T-0.1\",\"title\":\"Will Euro area GDP growth rate QoQ flash for Q1 2026 be above -0.1%?: Above -0.1%\",\"price\":97},{\"ticker\":\"KXEZGDPQOQF-26JUN05-T0....\n- dispersion: 44\n- range: 93\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-9zo5cd`\n\n## [consensus_break] Italy GDP growth rate YoY for Q1 be above 0.…: 5 markets deeply split (σ=43¢, range 93¢)\n- seriesKey: KXITGDPYOYA\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"KXITGDPYOYA-26MAY29-T0.0\",\"title\":\"Will Italy GDP growth rate YoY for Q1 2026 be above 0.0%?: Above 0.0%\",\"price\":96},{\"ticker\":\"KXITGDPYOYA-26MAY29-T0.4\",\"title\":\"W...\n- dispersion: 43\n- range: 93\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-1m2jsy`\n\n## [resolving_soon] 95% no in 4h — average **gas prices** be above?\n- ticker: KXAAAGASW-26MAY18-4.520\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will average **gas prices** be above $4.520?: Above 4.520\n- price: 5\n- settlesInHours: 4\n- impliedProbability: 0.05\n- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢\n- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢\n → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXAAAGASW-26MAY18-4.520`\n → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=catalyst`\n → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXAAAGASW-26MAY18-4.520`\n\n## [resolving_soon] 93% no in 4h — average **gas prices** be above?\n- ticker: KXAAAGASD-26MAY18-4.565\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will average **gas prices** be above $4.565?: Above 4.565\n- price: 7\n- settlesInHours: 4\n- impliedProbability: 0.07\n- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢\n- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢\n → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXAAAGASD-26MAY18-4.565`\n → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=catalyst`\n → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXAAAGASD-26MAY18-4.565`\n\n## [resolving_soon] 95% yes in 14h — In the Grey Rotten Tomatoes score?\n- ticker: KXRT-INT-35\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: In the Grey Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 35\n- price: 95\n- settlesInHours: 14\n- impliedProbability: 0.95\n- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢\n- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢\n → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXRT-INT-35`\n → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=catalyst`\n → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXRT-INT-35`\n\n## [regime_shift] regime shifting: GeoRisk 20→0 (-20)\n- baselineAt: 2026-05-17T11:45:00.108Z\n- driver: geopolitics\n- primaryMover: GeoRisk\n- moves: [{\"k\":\"GeoRisk\",\"from\":20,\"to\":0,\"Δ\":-20,\"unit\":\"\"}]\n- atBaseline: {\"disagreement\":51,\"geoRisk\":20,\"breadth\":0.36,\"activity\":14}\n- now: {\"disagreement\":51,\"geoRisk\":0,\"breadth\":0.36,\"activity\":14}\n → drill into geopolitics · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/geopolitics`\n → 24h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=24h`\n\n## Zoom\n- **Iran** — 204 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/iran`\n- **Oil & Energy** — 433 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/oil`\n- **Fed & Rates** — 1113 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/fed-rate`\n- **Recession** — 642 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/recession`\n- **2026 Elections** — 3017 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/election-2026`\n- **Crypto** — 1012 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/bitcoin`\n- **Ukraine/Russia** — 291 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/ukraine`\n- **China/Taiwan** — 340 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/china`\n\n---\nPath: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world\nOp: snapshot · Generated in 3132ms",
"markdownTokenEstimate": 1799
} |