2026-04-17.json

{
  "date": "2026-04-17",
  "timestamp": "2026-04-17T08:48:30.122Z",
  "index": {
    "breadth": 0.45,
    "geoRisk": 53,
    "activity": 14,
    "disagreement": 35
  },
  "traditional": [
    {
      "price": 702.2,
      "symbol": "SPY",
      "changePct": 0.37
    },
    {
      "price": 639.43,
      "symbol": "QQQ",
      "changePct": 0.16
    },
    {
      "price": 270,
      "symbol": "IWM",
      "changePct": 0.22
    },
    {
      "price": 28.3,
      "symbol": "VIXY",
      "changePct": -0.32
    },
    {
      "price": 82.49,
      "symbol": "SHY",
      "changePct": -0.02
    },
    {
      "price": 95.4,
      "symbol": "IEF",
      "changePct": -0.2
    },
    {
      "price": 86.23,
      "symbol": "TLT",
      "changePct": -0.69
    },
    {
      "price": 80.34,
      "symbol": "HYG",
      "changePct": -0.12
    },
    {
      "price": 439.71,
      "symbol": "GLD",
      "changePct": -0.29
    },
    {
      "price": 125.61,
      "symbol": "USO",
      "changePct": 2.42
    },
    {
      "price": 10.8,
      "symbol": "UNG",
      "changePct": 2.08
    },
    {
      "price": 36.92,
      "symbol": "CPER",
      "changePct": -0.94
    },
    {
      "price": 27.35,
      "symbol": "UUP",
      "changePct": 0.22
    },
    {
      "price": 108.73,
      "symbol": "FXE",
      "changePct": -0.18
    },
    {
      "price": 56.62,
      "symbol": "XLE",
      "changePct": 1.53
    },
    {
      "price": 62.43,
      "symbol": "EEM",
      "changePct": 0.34
    },
    {
      "price": 42.66,
      "symbol": "IBIT",
      "changePct": 0.49
    },
    {
      "price": 19.17,
      "symbol": "ETHE",
      "changePct": -0.7
    }
  ],
  "topics": [],
  "topEdges": [],
  "divergences": [
    {
      "description": "Energy sector split: some contracts rising while others falling",
      "implication": "Market uncertainty on energy direction — watch for resolution catalyst",
      "affectedTickers": [
        "USO",
        "KXNATGASMON-26APR3017-T1.699",
        "KXNATGASMON-26APR3017-T1.499"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "markdown": "# World — Apr 17, 2026\nRegime: Broad up-skew — more markets resolving toward higher implied probability\n\nSF Index v2: Disagree 35/100 | GeoRisk 53/100 | Breadth +0.45 | Activity 14/100\n\nMarkets: SPY $702.20 (+0.37%) | QQQ $639.43 (+0.16%) | IWM $270.00 (+0.22%) | VIXY $28.30 (-0.32%) | SHY $82.49 (-0.02%) | IEF $95.40 (-0.2%) | TLT $86.23 (-0.69%) | HYG $80.34 (-0.12%) | GLD $439.71 (-0.29%) | USO $125.61 (+2.42%) | UNG $10.80 (+2.08%) | CPER $36.92 (-0.94%) | UUP $27.35 (+0.22%) | FXE $108.73 (-0.18%) | XLE $56.62 (+1.53%) | EEM $62.43 (+0.34%) | IBIT $42.66 (+0.49%) | ETHE $19.17 (-0.7%)\n\n## Opportunities\n- [activity] Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Apr 28,: 37c (residualVR 15.8, IAR 1.1/h, v:$238) [kalshi]\n- [yield] Which company has the #3 AI model end of April? (Style Control On): Anthropic: 75c (IY 963%, τ 13d, v:$3k) [polymarket]\n- [contagion] Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $84 by Apr 30, 2026?: 83.99: lagging behind Will the minimum WTI front month settle  (24c gap) [Oil & energy]\n- [activity] Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their December 2026 meeting?: Cut 25bps: 19c (residualVR 6.5, IAR 1.4/h, v:$122) [kalshi]\n- [yield] Greta Thunberg arrested by June 30?: 34c (IY 962%, τ 74d, v:$1k) [polymarket]\n\n## Movers /24h\n- Will Yujin Kim win the Sema vs Kim: W15 Singapore Quarterfinal match?:: 90c (+89c/24h, v:$12k expires:Apr16) [kalshi]\n- Bitcoin price  on Apr 16, 2026?: $74,300 or above: 10c (-73c/24h, v:$61k expires:Apr16) [kalshi]\n\nAnchors: Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by...?: Apr 100c | Peru Presidential Election Winner: Rafae 13c | Peru Presidential Election Winner: Rober 22c | Peru Presidential Election Winner: Keiko 66c | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to norm 26c | Peru Presidential Election First Round:  73c\n\n## Contagion\n- Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $84 by Apr 30, 2026?: 83.99  lagging behind Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $80 by Apr 30, 2026?: 79.99  (24c gap) [theme:Oil & energy]\n- Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $80 by Apr 30, 2026?: 79.99  overreacting to Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $84 by Apr 30, 2026?: 83.99  (23c gap) [theme:Oil & energy]\n- Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $84 by Apr 30, 2026?: 83.99  lagging behind Will the brent crude oil close price be above $104.99 on Apr 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT (22c gap) [theme:Oil & energy]\n- Will HYPE trimmed mean be below $25.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Apr 30, 2026?: Below $2 overreacting to Will HYPE trimmed mean be below $22.50 by 11:59 PM ET on Apr 30, 2026?: Below $2 (53c gap) [event:KXHYPEMINMON-HYPE-26APR30]\n- Will HYPE trimmed mean be below $25.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Apr 30, 2026?: Below $2 overreacting to Will HYPE trimmed mean be below $17.50 by 11:59 PM ET on Apr 30, 2026?: Below $1 (53c gap) [event:KXHYPEMINMON-HYPE-26APR30]\n\n## Divergences\n- Energy sector split: some contracts rising while others falling\n  Market uncertainty on energy direction — watch for resolution catalyst\n\n---\nSource: SimpleFunctions — 45980 markets, calibrated by real money | simplefunctions.dev\nNext: inspect any ticker above → GET /api/agent/inspect/{ticker} (returns suggestion + pre-filled actions)\nMore: /api/public/ideas | /api/public/screen | /api/public/contagion\nOpinions: /api/public/theses (analyst thesis edges — not included in opportunities)\nSections: ?include=legislative (policy markets + bill status) | ?include=contagion (sibling gaps)",
  "markdownTokenEstimate": 884,
  "backfilled": true
}