| "markdown": "# World (2026-04-28 23:40 UTC)\nRegime: Broad up-skew — markets resolving toward higher probability\nSF Index: Disagree 47 | GeoRisk 34 | Breadth +0.43 | Activity 100\nBaseline: last 12h\n\n## [divergence] Fed rate cut by...? overshooting How many senators will vote for Trump… — 56¢ gap [Fed / monetary policy]\n- lhs: {\"name\":\"How many senators will vote for Trump's Fed chair nominee?: No vote by Dec 31/Wi\",\"Δ\":\"-35c\"}\n- rhs: {\"name\":\"Fed rate cut by...?: September Meeting\",\"Δ\":\"53c\"}\n- gap: -56\n- theme: Fed / monetary policy\n- triggerTicker: 0x205e799c5285c73319092e7d1b8c663813106ba837adb90bcb577db7b20e0d35\n- laggingTicker: 0xb4022c0b2718eca7ad27195f2d48f06527fa000269d188e1d3001ff8bbc16956\n → why? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-5cqgfn`\n → How many senators will vote for Trump's Fed chair nominee?: No vote by Dec 31/Wi spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n → 6h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`\n\n## [regime_shift] activity spike, conviction rising: Activity 0→100 (+100)\n- baselineAt: 2026-04-28T11:45:00.369Z\n- driver: \n- primaryMover: Activity\n- moves: [{\"k\":\"Activity\",\"from\":0,\"to\":100,\"Δ\":100,\"unit\":\"\"}]\n- atBaseline: {\"disagreement\":42,\"geoRisk\":27,\"breadth\":0.46,\"activity\":0}\n- now: {\"disagreement\":47,\"geoRisk\":34,\"breadth\":0.43,\"activity\":100}\n → 24h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=24h`\n\n## [divergence] Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin meet? lagging Russia enter Shevchenko by...? — 34¢ gap [Ukraine / Russia conflict]\n- lhs: {\"name\":\"Will Russia enter Shevchenko by...?: May 31\",\"Δ\":\"25c\"}\n- rhs: {\"name\":\"Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin meet before May 1, 2026?: Vladimir Putin\",\"Δ\":\"50c\"}\n- gap: 34\n- theme: Ukraine / Russia conflict\n- triggerTicker: 0x999c477e6c9aedeaa28735dc02fe9076f8088a020b2ca329c0acc2d28876c4f4\n- laggingTicker: KXTRUMPMEET-26APR-VPUT\n → why? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-tujqho`\n → Will Russia enter Shevchenko by...?: May 31 spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n → 6h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`\n\n## [consensus_break] Nikki Gronli be the Democratic nominee for S…: 4 markets deeply split (σ=46¢, range 94¢)\n- seriesKey: KXSDPRIMARY\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"KXSDPRIMARY-ALR26-MJAC\",\"title\":\"Will Marty Jackley be the Republican nominee for SD-AL?: Marty Jackley\",\"price\":95},{\"ticker\":\"KXSDPRIMARY-ALR26-JBIA\",\"title\":\"Will...\n- dispersion: 46\n- range: 94\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-jf3zpp`\n\n## [consensus_break] RTX 5090 compute per hour price be above?: 37 markets deeply split (σ=44¢, range 94¢)\n- seriesKey: KXRTX5090MON\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"KXRTX5090MON-26APR30-0.293\",\"title\":\"Will the RTX 5090 compute per hour price be above $0.293 on Apr 30?: Above $0.29\",\"price\":97},{\"ticker\":\"KXRTX5090MON-26APR30-0....\n- dispersion: 44\n- range: 94\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-qbdlvs`\n\n## [consensus_break] BNB price?: 12 markets deeply split (σ=44¢, range 93¢)\n- seriesKey: KXBNBD\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"KXBNBD-26MAY0117-T509.99\",\"title\":\"BNB price on May 1, 2026?: $510 or above\",\"price\":96},{\"ticker\":\"KXBNBD-26MAY0117-T514.99\",\"title\":\"BNB price on May 1, 2026?: $...\n- dispersion: 44\n- range: 93\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-anghki`\n\n## [divergence] What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in … lagging Crude Oil (CL) above ___ end of June? — 16¢ gap [Oil & energy]\n- lhs: {\"name\":\"Crude Oil (CL) above ___ end of June?: $60\",\"Δ\":\"32c\"}\n- rhs: {\"name\":\"What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in April 2026?: ↑ $105\",\"Δ\":\"23c\"}\n- gap: 16\n- theme: Oil & energy\n- triggerTicker: 0x30cbc7711849709ecf06fc715003adadfda2cb6c9862dd10882e39a1c40f565b\n- laggingTicker: 0x3cdf6fa07ce061ab6cdd26c7386b21d0b4c2cb3226d0a069cd8b597fdc667676\n → why? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-g7unch`\n → Crude Oil (CL) above ___ end of June?: $60 spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n → 6h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`\n\n## [resolving_soon] 95% yes in 4h — average **gas prices** be above?\n- ticker: KXAAAGASD-26APR29-4.205\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will average **gas prices** be above $4.205?: Above 4.205\n- price: 95\n- settlesInHours: 4\n- impliedProbability: 0.95\n- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢\n- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢\n → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXAAAGASD-26APR29-4.205`\n → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=catalyst`\n → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXAAAGASD-26APR29-4.205`\n\n## [resolving_soon] 95% no in 4h — average **gas prices** be above?\n- ticker: KXAAAGASD-26APR29-4.245\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will average **gas prices** be above $4.245?: Above 4.245\n- price: 5\n- settlesInHours: 4\n- impliedProbability: 0.05\n- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢\n- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢\n → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXAAAGASD-26APR29-4.245`\n → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=catalyst`\n → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXAAAGASD-26APR29-4.245`\n\n## [residual] 2.4σ volume @ 89¢ — CPI rise more than 0.1% in May?\n- ticker: KXCPI-26MAY-T0.1\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will CPI rise more than 0.1% in May 2026?: Above 0.1%\n- price: 89\n- residualVr: 2.425\n- vr: 3.425\n- volume24h: 1006.66\n → why moving? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-16afda`\n → volume path · `GET /api/public/market/KXCPI-26MAY-T0.1`\n → related · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXCPI-26MAY-T0.1`\n\n## Zoom\n- **Iran** — 269 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/iran`\n- **Oil & Energy** — 424 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/oil`\n- **Fed & Rates** — 1303 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/fed-rate`\n- **Recession** — 688 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/recession`\n- **2026 Elections** — 2862 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/election-2026`\n- **Crypto** — 1410 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/bitcoin`\n- **Ukraine/Russia** — 331 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/ukraine`\n- **China/Taiwan** — 250 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/china`\n\n---\nPath: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world\nOp: snapshot · Generated in 4639ms", |
