| "markdown": "# World (2026-04-29 23:45 UTC)\nRegime: Steady — no dominant macro signal\nSF Index: Disagree 47 | GeoRisk 32 | Breadth +0.27 | Activity 67\nBaseline: last 12h\n\n## [divergence] Reserve Bank of Australia Maintain cu… overshooting How many senators will vote for Trump… — 64¢ gap [Fed / monetary policy]\n- lhs: {\"name\":\"How many senators will vote for Trump's Fed chair nominee?: 54\",\"Δ\":\"-40c\"}\n- rhs: {\"name\":\"Will the Reserve Bank of Australia Maintain current rate at the June Reserve Ban\",\"Δ\":\"56c\"}\n- gap: -64\n- theme: Fed / monetary policy\n- triggerTicker: 0x464aeac6e80c0059679972c0f2d6b3571114f7180b410fe8133034e4b3ee1350\n- laggingTicker: KXCBDECISIONAUSTRALIA-26JUN16-HOLD\n → why? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-9bv479`\n → How many senators will vote for Trump's Fed chair nominee?: 54 spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n → 6h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`\n\n## [divergence] min WTI front month settle price reac… overshooting Crude Oil (CL) above ___ end of June? — 35¢ gap [Oil & energy]\n- lhs: {\"name\":\"Crude Oil (CL) above ___ end of June?: $50\",\"Δ\":\"-25c\"}\n- rhs: {\"name\":\"Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $65 by Dec 31, 2026?: 64.99 \",\"Δ\":\"33c\"}\n- gap: -35\n- theme: Oil & energy\n- triggerTicker: 0x8053490a998a739591c615219ccd8f65560d40a0286f23fd2a0dffc48e3c37ad\n- laggingTicker: KXWTIMIN-26DEC31-T65\n → why? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-t1th5u`\n → Crude Oil (CL) above ___ end of June?: $50 spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n → 6h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`\n\n## [consensus_break] Puducherry Legislative Assembly Election Win…: 3 markets deeply split (σ=44¢, range 94¢)\n- seriesKey: 119461\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"0xd671c34032895e71b99d64f00847006cd91b227b0d049414b22ab840aaf10312\",\"title\":\"Puducherry Legislative Assembly Election Winner: INC\",\"price\":3},{\"ticker\":\"0x39f49acbad...\n- dispersion: 44\n- range: 94\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n → drill election-2026 · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/election-2026`\n → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-x982p9`\n\n## [consensus_break] European Central Bank Cut 1-25bps at the Apr…: 3 markets deeply split (σ=44¢, range 94¢)\n- seriesKey: KXCBDECISIONEU\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"KXCBDECISIONEU-26APR30-C25P\",\"title\":\"Will the European Central Bank Cut more than 25bps at the April ECB Governing Council monetary policy meeting?: Cut more than 2...\n- dispersion: 44\n- range: 94\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-3gp09b`\n\n## [consensus_break] HYPE price?: 3 markets deeply split (σ=43¢, range 93¢)\n- seriesKey: KXHYPE\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"KXHYPE-26MAY0117-T64.9999\",\"title\":\"HYPE price on May 1, 2026?: $65 or above\",\"price\":5},{\"ticker\":\"KXHYPE-26APR2920-B39\",\"title\":\"HYPE price on Apr 29, 2026?: $39...\n- dispersion: 43\n- range: 93\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-ankjze`\n\n## [residual] 2.8σ volume @ 86¢ — rate of CPI inflation be above 3.8% for the year …\n- ticker: KXCPIYOY-26MAY-T3.8\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.8% for the year ending in May 2026?: Above 3.8%\n- price: 86\n- residualVr: 2.777\n- vr: 3.931\n- volume24h: 613\n → why moving? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-f2ve2x`\n → volume path · `GET /api/public/market/KXCPIYOY-26MAY-T3.8`\n → related · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXCPIYOY-26MAY-T3.8`\n\n## [resolving_soon] 95% yes in 4h — average **gas prices** be above?\n- ticker: KXAAAGASD-26APR30-4.275\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will average **gas prices** be above $4.275?: Above 4.275\n- price: 95\n- settlesInHours: 4\n- impliedProbability: 0.95\n- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢\n- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢\n → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXAAAGASD-26APR30-4.275`\n → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=catalyst`\n → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXAAAGASD-26APR30-4.275`\n\n## [resolving_soon] 95% no in 8h — Germany unemployment rate in April?\n- ticker: KXUE-GER26APR-6.4\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Germany unemployment rate in April 2026?: Above 6.4%\n- price: 5\n- settlesInHours: 8\n- impliedProbability: 0.05\n- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢\n- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢\n → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXUE-GER26APR-6.4`\n → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=catalyst`\n → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXUE-GER26APR-6.4`\n\n## [resolving_soon] 95% no in 8h — Italy GDP growth rate QoQ adv for Q1 be abov…\n- ticker: KXITGDPQOQA-26APR30-T0.2\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will Italy GDP growth rate QoQ adv for Q1 2026 be above 0.2%?: Above 0.2%\n- price: 5\n- settlesInHours: 8\n- impliedProbability: 0.05\n- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢\n- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢\n → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXITGDPQOQA-26APR30-T0.2`\n → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=catalyst`\n → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXITGDPQOQA-26APR30-T0.2`\n\n## [regime_shift] market gone quiet: Activity 100→67 (-33), GeoRisk 49→32 (-17)\n- baselineAt: 2026-04-29T11:45:00.729Z\n- driver: \n- primaryMover: Activity\n- moves: [{\"k\":\"Activity\",\"from\":100,\"to\":67,\"Δ\":-33,\"unit\":\"\"},{\"k\":\"GeoRisk\",\"from\":49,\"to\":32,\"Δ\":-17,\"unit\":\"\"}]\n- atBaseline: {\"disagreement\":40,\"geoRisk\":49,\"breadth\":0.35,\"activity\":100}\n- now: {\"disagreement\":47,\"geoRisk\":32,\"breadth\":0.27,\"activity\":67}\n → 24h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=24h`\n\n## Zoom\n- **Iran** — 260 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/iran`\n- **Oil & Energy** — 515 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/oil`\n- **Fed & Rates** — 1157 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/fed-rate`\n- **Recession** — 673 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/recession`\n- **2026 Elections** — 2840 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/election-2026`\n- **Crypto** — 1498 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/bitcoin`\n- **Ukraine/Russia** — 317 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/ukraine`\n- **China/Taiwan** — 253 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/china`\n\n---\nPath: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world\nOp: snapshot · Generated in 5407ms", |
