2026-05-03.json

{
  "date": "2026-05-03",
  "timestamp": "2026-05-03T23:50:08.616Z",
  "index": {
    "disagreement": 45,
    "geoRisk": 30,
    "breadth": 0.25,
    "activity": 0
  },
  "traditional": [
    {
      "symbol": "SPY",
      "price": 719.72,
      "changePct": -0.05
    },
    {
      "symbol": "QQQ",
      "price": 673.11,
      "changePct": 0.84
    },
    {
      "symbol": "IWM",
      "price": 278.72,
      "changePct": 0.07
    },
    {
      "symbol": "VIXY",
      "price": 27.37,
      "changePct": 0.81
    },
    {
      "symbol": "SHY",
      "price": 82.24,
      "changePct": -0.32
    },
    {
      "symbol": "IEF",
      "price": 94.76,
      "changePct": -0.22
    },
    {
      "symbol": "TLT",
      "price": 85.67,
      "changePct": -0.3
    },
    {
      "symbol": "HYG",
      "price": 80.07,
      "changePct": -0.36
    },
    {
      "symbol": "GLD",
      "price": 423.23,
      "changePct": -0.08
    },
    {
      "symbol": "USO",
      "price": 143.43,
      "changePct": -2.49
    },
    {
      "symbol": "UNG",
      "price": 10.71,
      "changePct": 0.99
    },
    {
      "symbol": "CPER",
      "price": 36.24,
      "changePct": -0.77
    },
    {
      "symbol": "UUP",
      "price": 27.42,
      "changePct": 0.18
    },
    {
      "symbol": "FXE",
      "price": 108.12,
      "changePct": -0.18
    },
    {
      "symbol": "XLE",
      "price": 58.83,
      "changePct": -1.33
    },
    {
      "symbol": "EEM",
      "price": 64.21,
      "changePct": 0.38
    },
    {
      "symbol": "IBIT",
      "price": 44.17,
      "changePct": 1.84
    },
    {
      "symbol": "ETHE",
      "price": 18.72,
      "changePct": 2.02
    }
  ],
  "topics": [],
  "topEdges": [],
  "divergences": [
    {
      "description": "FL-23 House Election Winner lagging VA-10 House Election Winner — 45¢ gap [US Elections]",
      "implication": "",
      "affectedTickers": []
    },
    {
      "description": "Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at… overshooting Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...? — 27¢ gap [Fed / monetary policy]",
      "implication": "",
      "affectedTickers": []
    },
    {
      "description": "How many initial jobless claims will … lagging UK Annual GDP Growth — 23¢ gap [US fiscal / recession]",
      "implication": "",
      "affectedTickers": []
    }
  ],
  "markdown": "# World (2026-05-03 23:40 UTC)\nRegime: Steady — no dominant macro signal\nSF Index: Disagree 45 | GeoRisk 30 | Breadth +0.25 | Activity 0\nBaseline: last 12h\n\n## [divergence] VA-10 House Election Winner lagging IL-17 House Election Winner — 55¢ gap [US Elections]\n- lhs: {\"name\":\"IL-17 House Election Winner: Republican Party\",\"Δ\":\"34c\"}\n- rhs: {\"name\":\"VA-10 House Election Winner: Democratic Party\",\"Δ\":\"48c\"}\n- gap: 55\n- theme: US Elections\n- triggerTicker: 0x59946d130f7e7093e3463db4221f6e620f670b45ff4acd42def5e29742bee074\n- laggingTicker: 0xf7baa091d720a429809c88e624df633920d3517df25ffea679d9ebb8b4ea2f24\n  → why? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-wa21kw`\n  → IL-17 House Election Winner: Republican Party spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → 6h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`\n\n## [divergence] Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at… overshooting Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...? — 29¢ gap [Fed / monetary policy]\n- lhs: {\"name\":\"Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?: May 15\",\"Δ\":\"-54c\"}\n- rhs: {\"name\":\"Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their March 2027 meeting?: Fed ma\",\"Δ\":\"37c\"}\n- gap: -29\n- theme: Fed / monetary policy\n- triggerTicker: 0x1bb8bd43ada27e828ce693a5dc2896cd918b64869570761a61048ec78471ce9a\n- laggingTicker: KXFEDDECISION-27MAR-H0\n  → why? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-i7a6gs`\n  → Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?: May 15 spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → 6h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`\n\n## [consensus_break] TX-38 Republican Primary Winner: 3 markets deeply split (σ=43¢, range 92¢)\n- seriesKey: 200774\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"0x226fb2b3a531a7f09ce74c6459f3bc85963c781a1282c38e38a30d6047fe6fb2\",\"title\":\"TX-38 Republican Primary Winner: Jon Bonck\",\"price\":95},{\"ticker\":\"0x289437966e76b2ea691...\n- dispersion: 43\n- range: 92\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n  → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-xpk7vd`\n\n## [consensus_break] James Bialota be the Republican nominee for …: 3 markets deeply split (σ=43¢, range 92¢)\n- seriesKey: KXSDPRIMARY\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"KXSDPRIMARY-ALR26-MJAC\",\"title\":\"Will Marty Jackley be the Republican nominee for SD-AL?: Marty Jackley\",\"price\":95},{\"ticker\":\"KXSDPRIMARY-ALR26-JBIA\",\"title\":\"Will...\n- dispersion: 43\n- range: 92\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n  → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-jf3zpp`\n\n## [consensus_break] Florida Republican Senate Primary Winner: 3 markets deeply split (σ=43¢, range 92¢)\n- seriesKey: 89321\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"0x9743ef770e5caafc6a8676aaa87d4303908ebf31f42826cc152948964d0a05d7\",\"title\":\"Florida Republican Senate Primary Winner: Ashley B. Moody\",\"price\":95},{\"ticker\":\"0x0a9c...\n- dispersion: 43\n- range: 92\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n  → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-6wtqre`\n\n## [resolving_soon] 91% no in 4h — average **gas prices** be above?\n- ticker: KXAAAGASD-26MAY04-4.500\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will average **gas prices** be above $4.500?: Above 4.500\n- price: 9\n- settlesInHours: 4\n- impliedProbability: 0.09\n- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢\n- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢\n  → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXAAAGASD-26MAY04-4.500`\n  → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=catalyst`\n  → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXAAAGASD-26MAY04-4.500`\n\n## [resolving_soon] 95% no in 14h — Trump say \"Windmill\"?\n- ticker: KXTRUMPSAY-26MAY04-WIND\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will Trump say \"Windmill\" before May 4, 2026?: Windmill\n- price: 5\n- settlesInHours: 14\n- impliedProbability: 0.05\n- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢\n- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢\n  → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXTRUMPSAY-26MAY04-WIND`\n  → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=catalyst`\n  → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXTRUMPSAY-26MAY04-WIND`\n\n## [resolving_soon] 95% no in 14h — Trump say \"Pope\"?\n- ticker: KXTRUMPSAY-26MAY04-POPE\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will Trump say \"Pope\" before May 4, 2026?: Pope\n- price: 5\n- settlesInHours: 14\n- impliedProbability: 0.05\n- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢\n- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢\n  → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXTRUMPSAY-26MAY04-POPE`\n  → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=catalyst`\n  → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXTRUMPSAY-26MAY04-POPE`\n\n## [novel] NEW 3h @ 0¢ — \"The Devil Wears Prada 2\" Opening Weekend Box Off…\n- ticker: 0x7c6000328963796aaec9a57a2a43cc8e16b9a90b297806b81e27d74d3096d672\n- venue: polymarket\n- title: \"The Devil Wears Prada 2\" Opening Weekend Box Office: 90-100m\n- listedAgoHours: 3\n- currentPrice: 0\n- volume24h: 135244\n- note: listedAt = Polymarket createdAt\n  → similar prior · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=0x7c6000328963796aaec9a57a2a43cc8e16b9a90b297806b81e27d74d3096d672`\n  → topic path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=24h`\n\n## [novel] NEW 3h @ 0¢ — \"The Devil Wears Prada 2\" Opening Weekend Box Off…\n- ticker: 0x6c2c7effd44d8f8fdbe4c21a8cff81608109832750b007d0cad2c86b75db1033\n- venue: polymarket\n- title: \"The Devil Wears Prada 2\" Opening Weekend Box Office: >100m\n- listedAgoHours: 3\n- currentPrice: 0\n- volume24h: 77289\n- note: listedAt = Polymarket createdAt\n  → similar prior · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=0x6c2c7effd44d8f8fdbe4c21a8cff81608109832750b007d0cad2c86b75db1033`\n  → topic path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=24h`\n\n## Zoom\n- **Iran** — 206 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/iran`\n- **Oil & Energy** — 380 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/oil`\n- **Fed & Rates** — 1204 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/fed-rate`\n- **Recession** — 667 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/recession`\n- **2026 Elections** — 2902 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/election-2026`\n- **Crypto** — 1390 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/bitcoin`\n- **Ukraine/Russia** — 278 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/ukraine`\n- **China/Taiwan** — 279 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/china`\n\n---\nPath: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world\nOp: snapshot · Generated in 4644ms",
  "markdownTokenEstimate": 1765
}