| "markdown": "# World (2026-05-10 23:40 UTC)\nRegime: Broad up-skew — markets resolving toward higher probability\nSimpleFunctions Index: Disagree 39 | GeoRisk 27 | Breadth +0.37 | Activity 57\nBaseline: last 12h\n\n## [divergence] XRP trimmed mean be above:59 PM ET? lagging Did a crypto hedge fund blow up? — 78¢ gap [Crypto]\n- lhs: {\"name\":\"Did a crypto hedge fund blow up?\",\"Δ\":\"32c\"}\n- rhs: {\"name\":\"Will XRP trimmed mean be above $1.50 by 11:59 PM ET on May 31, 2026?: Above $1.5\",\"Δ\":\"25c\"}\n- gap: 78\n- theme: Crypto\n- triggerTicker: 0xee4c1f52bddaacaec52a153ba7b2d92291d6af6b4b35f19e764ac5789082761e\n- laggingTicker: KXXRPMAXMON-XRP-26MAY31-150\n → why? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-t6gp7`\n → Did a crypto hedge fund blow up? spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n → 6h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`\n\n## [divergence] US effective tariff rate (customs dut… lagging Trump announce a trade deal with Cuba? — 69¢ gap [Tariffs & trade]\n- lhs: {\"name\":\"Will Trump announce a trade deal with Cuba before Jan 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1, 20\",\"Δ\":\"-30c\"}\n- rhs: {\"name\":\"Will the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of\",\"Δ\":\"10c\"}\n- gap: 69\n- theme: Tariffs & trade\n- triggerTicker: KXTRADEDEALCUBA-27-B270101\n- laggingTicker: KXEFFTARIFF-26JUL30-T7.5\n → why? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-h9alg6`\n → Will Trump announce a trade deal with Cuba before Jan 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1, 20 spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n → 6h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`\n\n## [divergence] MI-03 House Election Winner lagging NC-13 House Election Winner — 31¢ gap [US Elections]\n- lhs: {\"name\":\"NC-13 House Election Winner: Republican Party\",\"Δ\":\"34c\"}\n- rhs: {\"name\":\"MI-03 House Election Winner: Republican Party\",\"Δ\":\"12c\"}\n- gap: 31\n- theme: US Elections\n- triggerTicker: 0x0536145e60528ca32583b13961a328a679b868f9fc6a775c2845776d8aa70cbe\n- laggingTicker: 0x5a9c199f5580fd145622bf822fdcab24c44f24cf3db997db3c6eaea3907578c1\n → why? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-4pyrgp`\n → NC-13 House Election Winner: Republican Party spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n → 6h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`\n\n## [residual] 5.2σ volume @ 71¢ — Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their April?\n- ticker: KXFEDDECISION-27APR-H0\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their April 2027 meeting?: Fed maintains rate\n- price: 71\n- residualVr: 5.247\n- vr: 6.247\n- volume24h: 1652\n → why moving? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-fybm2d`\n → volume path · `GET /api/public/market/KXFEDDECISION-27APR-H0`\n → related · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXFEDDECISION-27APR-H0`\n\n## [consensus_break] Italy inflation rate YoY for April be above …: 8 markets deeply split (σ=44¢, range 94¢)\n- seriesKey: KXITCPIPREL\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"KXITCPIPREL-26MAY15-T2.4\",\"title\":\"Will Italy inflation rate YoY for April 2026 be above 2.4%?: Above 2.4%\",\"price\":97},{\"ticker\":\"KXITCPIPREL-26MAY15-T2.5\",\"title\":...\n- dispersion: 44\n- range: 94\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-ji4oc6`\n\n## [consensus_break] GA-01 Republican Primary Winner: 3 markets deeply split (σ=43¢, range 92¢)\n- seriesKey: 290254\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"0x29cb08b01914d66b033c5400eddfec7e479df8df8a7986f958956f1cb89ca5a8\",\"title\":\"GA-01 Republican Primary Winner: Patrick Farrell\",\"price\":4},{\"ticker\":\"0xcc91f3cfed914f...\n- dispersion: 43\n- range: 92\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-xui9gf`\n\n## [consensus_break] James Bialota be the Republican nominee for …: 3 markets deeply split (σ=43¢, range 92¢)\n- seriesKey: KXSDPRIMARY\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"KXSDPRIMARY-ALR26-MJAC\",\"title\":\"Will Marty Jackley be the Republican nominee for SD-AL?: Marty Jackley\",\"price\":95},{\"ticker\":\"KXSDPRIMARY-ALR26-JBIA\",\"title\":\"Will...\n- dispersion: 43\n- range: 92\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-jf3zpp`\n\n## [resolving_soon] 95% no in 14h — Trump say \"Golden Dome\"?\n- ticker: KXTRUMPSAY-26MAY11-GOLD\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will Trump say \"Golden Dome\" before May 11, 2026?: Golden Dome\n- price: 5\n- settlesInHours: 14\n- impliedProbability: 0.05\n- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢\n- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢\n → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXTRUMPSAY-26MAY11-GOLD`\n → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=catalyst`\n → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXTRUMPSAY-26MAY11-GOLD`\n\n## [resolving_soon] 95% yes in 14h — Sheep Detectives Rotten Tomatoes score?\n- ticker: KXRT-SHEE-92\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: The Sheep Detectives Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 92\n- price: 95\n- settlesInHours: 14\n- impliedProbability: 0.95\n- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢\n- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢\n → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXRT-SHEE-92`\n → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=catalyst`\n → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXRT-SHEE-92`\n\n## [resolving_soon] 95% yes in 14h — Billie Eilish - Hit Me Hard and Soft: The To…\n- ticker: KXRT-BIL-90\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Billie Eilish - Hit Me Hard and Soft: The Tour (Live in 3D) Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 90\n- price: 95\n- settlesInHours: 14\n- impliedProbability: 0.95\n- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢\n- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢\n → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXRT-BIL-90`\n → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=catalyst`\n → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXRT-BIL-90`\n\n## Zoom\n- **Iran** — 213 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/iran`\n- **Oil & Energy** — 423 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/oil`\n- **Fed & Rates** — 1241 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/fed-rate`\n- **Recession** — 642 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/recession`\n- **2026 Elections** — 2918 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/election-2026`\n- **Crypto** — 1088 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/bitcoin`\n- **Ukraine/Russia** — 282 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/ukraine`\n- **China/Taiwan** — 308 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/china`\n\n---\nPath: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world\nOp: snapshot · Generated in 3286ms", |
