| "markdown": "# World (2026-05-22 23:30 UTC)\nRegime: Broad down-skew — markets resolving toward lower probability\nSimpleFunctions Index: Disagree 47 | GeoRisk 24 | Breadth -0.46 | Activity 100\nBaseline: last 12h\n\n## [divergence] Democratic win the House race for MD-… lagging Democratic win the House race for MI-… — 104¢ gap [US Elections]\n- lhs: {\"name\":\"Will Democratic win the House race for MI-8?: Democratic party\",\"Δ\":\"76c\"}\n- rhs: {\"name\":\"Will Democratic win the House race for MD-02?: Democratic party\",\"Δ\":\"6c\"}\n- gap: 104\n- theme: US Elections\n- triggerTicker: HOUSEMI8-26-D\n- laggingTicker: KXHOUSERACE-MD02-26-D\n → why? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-8khbr4`\n → Will Democratic win the House race for MI-8?: Democratic party spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n → 6h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`\n\n## [residual] 7.4σ volume @ 40¢ — federal funds rate be above 3.50%?\n- ticker: KXFED-27APR-T3.50\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting?: Above 3.50%\n- price: 40\n- residualVr: 7.427\n- vr: 7.607\n- volume24h: 602.6\n → why moving? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-om3y0x`\n → volume path · `GET /api/public/market/KXFED-27APR-T3.50`\n → related · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXFED-27APR-T3.50`\n\n## [consensus_break] Bank of Mexico Decision in June: 3 markets deeply split (σ=44¢, range 93¢)\n- seriesKey: 314452\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"0x2f1db759c6a4f4b67b73374755ecb50ca71a8b549a216881b0bd4581f8c6b403\",\"title\":\"Bank of Mexico Decision in June: Decrease\",\"price\":4},{\"ticker\":\"0x7fc2ef7c733fb853dc324...\n- dispersion: 44\n- range: 93\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-y784j6`\n\n## [consensus_break] James Bialota be the Republican nominee for …: 3 markets deeply split (σ=43¢, range 92¢)\n- seriesKey: KXSDPRIMARY\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"KXSDPRIMARY-ALD26-NGRO\",\"title\":\"Will Nikki Gronli be the Democratic nominee for SD-AL?: Nikki Gronli\",\"price\":97},{\"ticker\":\"KXSDPRIMARY-ALR26-JBIA\",\"title\":\"Will J...\n- dispersion: 43\n- range: 92\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-jf3zpp`\n\n## [consensus_break] Germany vs. Curaçao: 3 markets deeply split (σ=43¢, range 91¢)\n- seriesKey: 351723\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"0x00cf3efc18a950cf442049aa0770903f0ab8606212499e0e4196bf74c102c456\",\"title\":\"Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany\",\"price\":94},{\"ticker\":\"0x0fe5bb2f2da60b0bcb4855dc0cc3101dd...\n- dispersion: 43\n- range: 91\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-y9dg3k`\n\n## [resolving_soon] 94% no in 1d — Sporting Kansas City vs. New York Red Bulls …\n- ticker: 0x62799b02b5595c0cef481680ed784242e73daa8440bfa1a92edde8b71d216d0d\n- venue: polymarket\n- title: Sporting Kansas City vs. New York Red Bulls - More Markets: Sporting Kansas City (-2.5)\n- price: 6\n- settlesInHours: 24\n- impliedProbability: 0.06\n- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢\n- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢\n → price path · `GET /api/public/market/0x62799b02b5595c0cef481680ed784242e73daa8440bfa1a92edde8b71d216d0d`\n → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=catalyst`\n → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=0x62799b02b5595c0cef481680ed784242e73daa8440bfa1a92edde8b71d216d0d`\n\n## [resolving_soon] 91% no in 1d — Portland Timbers vs. San Jose Earthquakes - …\n- ticker: 0x69635d8868a02a299152fe9cb4ba5981dd2347dcfab395777e03a53082f29b7a\n- venue: polymarket\n- title: Portland Timbers vs. San Jose Earthquakes - More Markets: Portland Timbers (-2.5)\n- price: 9\n- settlesInHours: 24\n- impliedProbability: 0.09\n- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢\n- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢\n → price path · `GET /api/public/market/0x69635d8868a02a299152fe9cb4ba5981dd2347dcfab395777e03a53082f29b7a`\n → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=catalyst`\n → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=0x69635d8868a02a299152fe9cb4ba5981dd2347dcfab395777e03a53082f29b7a`\n\n## [resolving_soon] 91% no in 1d — Zweigen Kanazawa vs. Kōchi United SC - More …\n- ticker: 0xce0919683866807df798b17d71f7bda33fa639a702d90ace7618a246a0e4721c\n- venue: polymarket\n- title: Zweigen Kanazawa vs. Kōchi United SC - More Markets: Kōchi United SC (-2.5)\n- price: 9\n- settlesInHours: 24\n- impliedProbability: 0.09\n- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢\n- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢\n → price path · `GET /api/public/market/0xce0919683866807df798b17d71f7bda33fa639a702d90ace7618a246a0e4721c`\n → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=catalyst`\n → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=0xce0919683866807df798b17d71f7bda33fa639a702d90ace7618a246a0e4721c`\n\n## [residual] 1.0σ volume @ 56¢ — CPI rise more than 0.5% in May?\n- ticker: KXCPI-26MAY-T0.5\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will CPI rise more than 0.5% in May 2026?: Above 0.5%\n- price: 56\n- residualVr: 1.038\n- vr: 1.528\n- volume24h: 1129.66\n → why moving? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-16afde`\n → volume path · `GET /api/public/market/KXCPI-26MAY-T0.5`\n → related · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXCPI-26MAY-T0.5`\n\n## [residual] 0.9σ volume @ 9¢ — CPI Core rise more than 0.3% in May?\n- ticker: KXCPICORE-26MAY-T0.3\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will CPI Core rise more than 0.3% in May?: Above 0.3%\n- price: 9\n- residualVr: 0.855\n- vr: 1.345\n- volume24h: 618.55\n → why moving? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-ermc7l`\n → volume path · `GET /api/public/market/KXCPICORE-26MAY-T0.3`\n → related · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXCPICORE-26MAY-T0.3`\n\n## Zoom\n- **Iran** — 223 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/iran`\n- **Oil & Energy** — 355 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/oil`\n- **Fed & Rates** — 1078 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/fed-rate`\n- **Recession** — 627 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/recession`\n- **2026 Elections** — 3026 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/election-2026`\n- **Crypto** — 773 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/bitcoin`\n- **Ukraine/Russia** — 294 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/ukraine`\n- **China/Taiwan** — 242 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/china`\n\n---\nPath: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world\nOp: snapshot · Generated in 0ms", |
