Add world state snapshot for 2026-04-27

2026-04-27.json

@@ -0,0 +1,123 @@
+{
+  "date": "2026-04-27",
+  "timestamp": "2026-04-27T23:50:11.358Z",
+  "index": {
+    "disagreement": 40,
+    "geoRisk": 34,
+    "breadth": 0.4,
+    "activity": 0
+  },
+  "traditional": [
+    {
+      "symbol": "SPY",
+      "price": 713.2,
+      "changePct": 0.56
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "QQQ",
+      "price": 663.38,
+      "changePct": 1.43
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "IWM",
+      "price": 276.76,
+      "changePct": 0.58
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "VIXY",
+      "price": 28.79,
+      "changePct": 1.05
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "SHY",
+      "price": 82.58,
+      "changePct": 0.12
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "IEF",
+      "price": 95.56,
+      "changePct": 0.17
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "TLT",
+      "price": 86.7,
+      "changePct": 0.16
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "HYG",
+      "price": 80.5,
+      "changePct": 0.16
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "GLD",
+      "price": 432.14,
+      "changePct": 0.37
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "USO",
+      "price": 132.32,
+      "changePct": -2.24
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "UNG",
+      "price": 10.31,
+      "changePct": -1.86
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "CPER",
+      "price": 36.97,
+      "changePct": -0.07
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "UUP",
+      "price": 27.46,
+      "changePct": -0.25
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "FXE",
+      "price": 108.15,
+      "changePct": 0.21
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "XLE",
+      "price": 56.81,
+      "changePct": -0.27
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "EEM",
+      "price": 63.72,
+      "changePct": 2.36
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "IBIT",
+      "price": 44.05,
+      "changePct": -0.25
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "ETHE",
+      "price": 18.85,
+      "changePct": 0.37
+    }
+  ],
+  "topics": [],
+  "topEdges": [],
+  "divergences": [
+    {
+      "description": "Russia capture Sofiivka by...? overshooting Russia enter Stinky by...? — 22¢ gap [Ukraine / Russia conflict]",
+      "implication": "",
+      "affectedTickers": []
+    },
+    {
+      "description": "Trump next nominate Stephen Miran as … overshooting Jerome Powell leave Member of the Boa… — 18¢ gap [Fed / monetary policy]",
+      "implication": "",
+      "affectedTickers": []
+    },
+    {
+      "description": "Bank of Israel Decision in July? lagging Israel military action against Damasc… — 14¢ gap [Middle East / Israel]",
+      "implication": "",
+      "affectedTickers": []
+    }
+  ],
+  "markdown": "# World (2026-04-27 23:40 UTC)\nRegime: Broad up-skew — markets resolving toward higher probability\nSF Index: Disagree 42 | GeoRisk 34 | Breadth +0.41 | Activity 0\nBaseline: last 12h\n\n## [residual] 46.0σ volume @ 11¢ — rate of CPI inflation be above 4.1% for the year …\n- ticker: KXCPIYOY-26MAY-T4.1\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.1% for the year ending in May 2026?: Above 4.1%\n- price: 11\n- residualVr: 46.01\n- vr: 46.877\n- volume24h: 604\n  → why moving? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-f2vetf`\n  → volume path · `GET /api/public/market/KXCPIYOY-26MAY-T4.1`\n  → related · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXCPIYOY-26MAY-T4.1`\n\n## [residual] 21.1σ volume @ 44¢ — federal funds rate be above 4.00%?\n- ticker: KXFED-27APR-T4.00\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting?: Above 4.00%\n- price: 44\n- residualVr: 21.146\n- vr: 23.189\n- volume24h: 676.5\n  → why moving? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-om4kw5`\n  → volume path · `GET /api/public/market/KXFED-27APR-T4.00`\n  → related · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXFED-27APR-T4.00`\n\n## [regime_shift] market gone quiet: Activity 100→0 (-100)\n- baselineAt: 2026-04-27T11:45:00.222Z\n- driver: \n- primaryMover: Activity\n- moves: [{\"k\":\"Activity\",\"from\":100,\"to\":0,\"Δ\":-100,\"unit\":\"\"}]\n- atBaseline: {\"disagreement\":37,\"geoRisk\":38,\"breadth\":0.25,\"activity\":100}\n- now: {\"disagreement\":42,\"geoRisk\":34,\"breadth\":0.41,\"activity\":0}\n  → 24h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=24h`\n\n## [divergence] USD hit ___ Iranian rials? lagging USD hit ___ Iranian rials? — 22¢ gap [Iran / Hormuz crisis]\n- lhs: {\"name\":\"Will USD hit ___ Iranian rials by April 30?: ↑ 1.7M\",\"Δ\":\"16c\"}\n- rhs: {\"name\":\"Will USD hit ___ Iranian rials by April 30?: ↑ 1.6M\",\"Δ\":\"60c\"}\n- gap: 22\n- theme: Iran / Hormuz crisis\n- triggerTicker: 0x05fc999a78a3a9bec241be1451810216bc912bcbf24d4fc586f8c482b372ba52\n- laggingTicker: 0x340c8d1a7e86c8d29e56bf6b33b21ead19edd840b27f373981430e4757faec4d\n  → why? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-x6akun`\n  → Will USD hit ___ Iranian rials by April 30?: ↑ 1.7M spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → 6h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`\n\n## [divergence] Trump next nominate Stephen Miran as … overshooting How many senators will vote for Trump… — 21¢ gap [Fed / monetary policy]\n- lhs: {\"name\":\"How many senators will vote for Trump's Fed chair nominee?: 53\",\"Δ\":\"-14c\"}\n- rhs: {\"name\":\"Will Trump next nominate Stephen Miran as member of the Board of Governors of th\",\"Δ\":\"36c\"}\n- gap: -21\n- theme: Fed / monetary policy\n- triggerTicker: 0x5c28e35f5ef8565fb9bc73d6d2b7e170e188c091f5835a7152e4e83b54f8fe1e\n- laggingTicker: KXFEDGOVNOM-27-SMIR\n  → why? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-4hr0yq`\n  → How many senators will vote for Trump's Fed chair nominee?: 53 spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → 6h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`\n\n## [consensus_break] BNB price?: 13 markets deeply split (σ=46¢, range 94¢)\n- seriesKey: KXBNBD\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"KXBNBD-26MAY0117-T509.99\",\"title\":\"BNB price  on May 1, 2026?: $510 or above\",\"price\":97},{\"ticker\":\"KXBNBD-26MAY0117-T514.99\",\"title\":\"BNB price  on May 1, 2026?: $...\n- dispersion: 46\n- range: 94\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n  → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-anghki`\n\n## [consensus_break] RTX 5090 compute per hour price be above?: 37 markets deeply split (σ=44¢, range 94¢)\n- seriesKey: KXRTX5090MON\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"KXRTX5090MON-26APR30-0.293\",\"title\":\"Will the RTX 5090 compute per hour price be above $0.293 on Apr 30?: Above $0.29\",\"price\":97},{\"ticker\":\"KXRTX5090MON-26APR30-0....\n- dispersion: 44\n- range: 94\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n  → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-qbdlvs`\n\n## [consensus_break] What will be the top AI model this month?: 3 markets deeply split (σ=44¢, range 93¢)\n- seriesKey: KXTOPMODEL\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"KXTOPMODEL-26MAY02-CLAUT\",\"title\":\"What will be the top AI model this month?: claude-opus-4-6-thinking\",\"price\":97},{\"ticker\":\"KXTOPMODEL-26MAY02-CLAU7\",\"title\":\"Wha...\n- dispersion: 44\n- range: 93\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n  → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-ufrmu0`\n\n## [divergence] Russia enter Stinky by...? lagging Russia capture Sofiivka by...? — 16¢ gap [Ukraine / Russia conflict]\n- lhs: {\"name\":\"Will Russia capture Sofiivka by...?: May 31\",\"Δ\":\"17c\"}\n- rhs: {\"name\":\"Will Russia enter Stinky by...?: May 31\",\"Δ\":\"40c\"}\n- gap: 16\n- theme: Ukraine / Russia conflict\n- triggerTicker: 0x26592785b3fc7faec42f7d5492da5a8ebed0845d5fe893472067d75430cc0891\n- laggingTicker: 0xe26dcffeba8a94632df98acb0b16171557558e9677f161d4602232e7fd328415\n  → why? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-v525er`\n  → Will Russia capture Sofiivka by...?: May 31 spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → 6h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`\n\n## [resolving_soon] 95% yes in 4h — #1 Movie on Netflix have at least 30 million…\n- ticker: KXNETFLIXTOPVIEWSMOVIE-26APR27-30\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will the #1 Movie on Netflix have at least 30 million views?: At least 30 million\n- price: 95\n- settlesInHours: 4\n- impliedProbability: 0.95\n- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢\n- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢\n  → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXNETFLIXTOPVIEWSMOVIE-26APR27-30`\n  → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=catalyst`\n  → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXNETFLIXTOPVIEWSMOVIE-26APR27-30`\n\n## Zoom\n- **Iran** — 265 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/iran`\n- **Oil & Energy** — 389 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/oil`\n- **Fed & Rates** — 1302 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/fed-rate`\n- **Recession** — 686 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/recession`\n- **2026 Elections** — 2847 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/election-2026`\n- **Crypto** — 1446 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/bitcoin`\n- **Ukraine/Russia** — 320 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/ukraine`\n- **China/Taiwan** — 253 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/china`\n\n---\nPath: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world\nOp: snapshot · Generated in 4428ms",
+  "markdownTokenEstimate": 1811
+}