Add world state snapshot for 2026-05-08

2026-05-08.json

@@ -0,0 +1,123 @@
+{
+  "date": "2026-05-08",
+  "timestamp": "2026-05-08T23:50:24.394Z",
+  "index": {
+    "disagreement": 37,
+    "geoRisk": 30,
+    "breadth": 0.47,
+    "activity": 14
+  },
+  "traditional": [
+    {
+      "symbol": "SPY",
+      "price": 730.14,
+      "changePct": -0.38
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "QQQ",
+      "price": 693.6,
+      "changePct": -0.03
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "IWM",
+      "price": 282.06,
+      "changePct": -1.43
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "VIXY",
+      "price": 26.93,
+      "changePct": -0.63
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "SHY",
+      "price": 82.23,
+      "changePct": -0.09
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "IEF",
+      "price": 94.73,
+      "changePct": -0.27
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "TLT",
+      "price": 85.79,
+      "changePct": -0.38
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "HYG",
+      "price": 79.89,
+      "changePct": -0.34
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "GLD",
+      "price": 431.66,
+      "changePct": 0.24
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "USO",
+      "price": 137.04,
+      "changePct": 1.71
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "UNG",
+      "price": 10.69,
+      "changePct": 2.25
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "CPER",
+      "price": 37.34,
+      "changePct": -0.56
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "UUP",
+      "price": 27.41,
+      "changePct": 0.22
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "FXE",
+      "price": 108.29,
+      "changePct": -0.09
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "XLE",
+      "price": 55.96,
+      "changePct": -1.79
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "EEM",
+      "price": 66.61,
+      "changePct": -1.27
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "IBIT",
+      "price": 45.31,
+      "changePct": -1.78
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "ETHE",
+      "price": 18.6,
+      "changePct": -2.36
+    }
+  ],
+  "topics": [],
+  "topEdges": [],
+  "divergences": [
+    {
+      "description": "MI-03 House Election Winner lagging margin of victory for Republicans in … — 45¢ gap [US Elections]",
+      "implication": "",
+      "affectedTickers": []
+    },
+    {
+      "description": "MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by __… lagging ETH trimmed mean be above:59 PM ET? — 33¢ gap [Crypto]",
+      "implication": "",
+      "affectedTickers": []
+    },
+    {
+      "description": "Eurozone Annual GDP Growth overshooting UK Annual GDP Growth — 19¢ gap [US fiscal / recession]",
+      "implication": "",
+      "affectedTickers": []
+    }
+  ],
+  "markdown": "# World (2026-05-08 23:45 UTC)\nRegime: Broad up-skew — markets resolving toward higher probability\nSimpleFunctions Index: Disagree 37 | GeoRisk 30 | Breadth +0.47 | Activity 14\nBaseline: last 12h\n\n## [divergence] MI-03 House Election Winner lagging margin of victory for Republicans in … — 45¢ gap [US Elections]\n- lhs: {\"name\":\"Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Alabama's 5th District House e\",\"Δ\":\"41c\"}\n- rhs: {\"name\":\"MI-03 House Election Winner: Republican Party\",\"Δ\":\"12c\"}\n- gap: 45\n- theme: US Elections\n- triggerTicker: KXMIDTERMMOV-AL05R-P28\n- laggingTicker: 0x5a9c199f5580fd145622bf822fdcab24c44f24cf3db997db3c6eaea3907578c1\n  → why? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-6gxo4d`\n  → Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Alabama's 5th District House e spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → 6h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`\n\n## [divergence] MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by __… lagging ETH trimmed mean be above:59 PM ET? — 33¢ gap [Crypto]\n- lhs: {\"name\":\"Will ETH trimmed mean be above $2500.00 by 11:59 PM ET on May 31, 2026?: Above $\",\"Δ\":\"44c\"}\n- rhs: {\"name\":\"MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ ?: May 31, 2026\",\"Δ\":\"37c\"}\n- gap: 33\n- theme: Crypto\n- triggerTicker: KXETHMAXMON-ETH-26MAY31-250000\n- laggingTicker: 0x3733a1b647e7364095736ab0966465d896a84cf3b6bc1695ca1f26c3239b3868\n  → why? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-vln2sl`\n  → Will ETH trimmed mean be above $2500.00 by 11:59 PM ET on May 31, 2026?: Above $ spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → 6h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`\n\n## [divergence] Eurozone Annual GDP Growth overshooting UK Annual GDP Growth — 19¢ gap [US fiscal / recession]\n- lhs: {\"name\":\"UK Annual GDP Growth 2026: 5%+\",\"Δ\":\"-36c\"}\n- rhs: {\"name\":\"Eurozone Annual GDP Growth 2026: 3.0-4.0%\",\"Δ\":\"22c\"}\n- gap: -19\n- theme: US fiscal / recession\n- triggerTicker: 0xd1cdfc25c26ccb87c1045b1361147da598b831faf6f65d39e31462e385058759\n- laggingTicker: 0xca2d841f2670dffe5191054f83e405e4f1182846594fd46ae06abdb2aae27083\n  → why? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-1zock3`\n  → UK Annual GDP Growth 2026: 5%+ spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → 6h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`\n\n## [consensus_break] Italy inflation rate YoY for April be above …: 7 markets deeply split (σ=43¢, range 94¢)\n- seriesKey: KXITCPIPREL\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"KXITCPIPREL-26MAY15-T2.4\",\"title\":\"Will Italy inflation rate YoY for April 2026 be above 2.4%?: Above 2.4%\",\"price\":97},{\"ticker\":\"KXITCPIPREL-26MAY15-T2.5\",\"title\":...\n- dispersion: 43\n- range: 94\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n  → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-ji4oc6`\n\n## [consensus_break] James Bialota be the Republican nominee for …: 3 markets deeply split (σ=43¢, range 92¢)\n- seriesKey: KXSDPRIMARY\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"KXSDPRIMARY-ALR26-MJAC\",\"title\":\"Will Marty Jackley be the Republican nominee for SD-AL?: Marty Jackley\",\"price\":95},{\"ticker\":\"KXSDPRIMARY-ALR26-JBIA\",\"title\":\"Will...\n- dispersion: 43\n- range: 92\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n  → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-jf3zpp`\n\n## [consensus_break] Republicans win the Senate race in Colorado?: 4 markets deeply split (σ=43¢, range 91¢)\n- seriesKey: SENATECO\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"SENATECO-28-D\",\"title\":\"Will Democratics win the Senate race in Colorado?: Democratic party\",\"price\":87},{\"ticker\":\"SENATECO-28-R\",\"title\":\"Will Republicans win the ...\n- dispersion: 43\n- range: 91\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n  → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-gn87t`\n\n## [resolving_soon] 94% no in 4h — average **gas prices** be above?\n- ticker: KXAAAGASD-26MAY09-4.540\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will average **gas prices** be above $4.540?: Above 4.540\n- price: 6\n- settlesInHours: 4\n- impliedProbability: 0.06\n- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢\n- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢\n  → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXAAAGASD-26MAY09-4.540`\n  → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=catalyst`\n  → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXAAAGASD-26MAY09-4.540`\n\n## [resolving_soon] 94% no in 14h — Running Point (S2) (S2) be #1 on the Luminat…\n- ticker: KXTOPSHOW-26MAY07-RUNNING22\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will Running Point (S2) (S2) be #1 on the Luminate Top 50 TV shows ranked by hours?: Running Point (S2) \n- price: 6\n- settlesInHours: 14\n- impliedProbability: 0.06\n- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢\n- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢\n  → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXTOPSHOW-26MAY07-RUNNING22`\n  → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=catalyst`\n  → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXTOPSHOW-26MAY07-RUNNING22`\n\n## [resolving_soon] 94% no in 14h — Unchosen (S1) (S1) be #1 on the Luminate Top…\n- ticker: KXTOPSHOW-26MAY07-UNCHOSE11\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will Unchosen (S1) (S1) be #1 on the Luminate Top 50 TV shows ranked by hours?: Unchosen (S1) \n- price: 6\n- settlesInHours: 14\n- impliedProbability: 0.06\n- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢\n- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢\n  → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXTOPSHOW-26MAY07-UNCHOSE11`\n  → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=catalyst`\n  → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXTOPSHOW-26MAY07-UNCHOSE11`\n\n## [novel] NEW 1h @ 0¢ — Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by..…\n- ticker: 0xc0b2acd094ebce0630fa9b3e899eb90c6a77424ebf01f67baf12b843af35f719\n- venue: polymarket\n- title: Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?: May 8\n- listedAgoHours: 1\n- currentPrice: 0\n- volume24h: 216438\n- note: listedAt = Polymarket createdAt\n  → similar prior · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=0xc0b2acd094ebce0630fa9b3e899eb90c6a77424ebf01f67baf12b843af35f719`\n  → topic path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=24h`\n\n## Zoom\n- **Iran** — 211 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/iran`\n- **Oil & Energy** — 424 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/oil`\n- **Fed & Rates** — 1242 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/fed-rate`\n- **Recession** — 626 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/recession`\n- **2026 Elections** — 2912 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/election-2026`\n- **Crypto** — 1044 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/bitcoin`\n- **Ukraine/Russia** — 282 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/ukraine`\n- **China/Taiwan** — 358 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/china`\n\n---\nPath: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world\nOp: snapshot · Generated in 7274ms",
+  "markdownTokenEstimate": 1874
+}