Add world state snapshot for 2026-05-11

2026-05-11.json

@@ -0,0 +1,123 @@
+{
+  "date": "2026-05-11",
+  "timestamp": "2026-05-11T23:50:24.353Z",
+  "index": {
+    "disagreement": 35,
+    "geoRisk": 23,
+    "breadth": 0.53,
+    "activity": 29
+  },
+  "traditional": [
+    {
+      "symbol": "SPY",
+      "price": 737.83,
+      "changePct": 1.05
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "QQQ",
+      "price": 711.23,
+      "changePct": 2.54
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "IWM",
+      "price": 284.34,
+      "changePct": 0.81
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "VIXY",
+      "price": 27.03,
+      "changePct": 0.37
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "SHY",
+      "price": 82.3,
+      "changePct": 0.09
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "IEF",
+      "price": 94.96,
+      "changePct": 0.24
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "TLT",
+      "price": 86.06,
+      "changePct": 0.31
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "HYG",
+      "price": 80.13,
+      "changePct": 0.3
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "GLD",
+      "price": 433.84,
+      "changePct": 0.5
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "USO",
+      "price": 133.6,
+      "changePct": -2.51
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "UNG",
+      "price": 10.59,
+      "changePct": -0.89
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "CPER",
+      "price": 38.26,
+      "changePct": 2.46
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "UUP",
+      "price": 27.33,
+      "changePct": -0.27
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "FXE",
+      "price": 108.69,
+      "changePct": 0.37
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "XLE",
+      "price": 55.67,
+      "changePct": -0.52
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "EEM",
+      "price": 68,
+      "changePct": 2.09
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "IBIT",
+      "price": 45.41,
+      "changePct": 0.22
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "ETHE",
+      "price": 18.77,
+      "changePct": 0.91
+    }
+  ],
+  "topics": [],
+  "topEdges": [],
+  "divergences": [
+    {
+      "description": "margin of victory for Republicans in … lagging Republican win the House race for AL-… — 72¢ gap [US Elections]",
+      "implication": "",
+      "affectedTickers": []
+    },
+    {
+      "description": "XRP trimmed mean be above:59 PM ET? overshooting Dogecoin price? — 51¢ gap [Crypto]",
+      "implication": "",
+      "affectedTickers": []
+    },
+    {
+      "description": "Equity-oil split: SPY +1.1% vs Oil -2.5% — demand pulling, supply stable",
+      "implication": "demand pulling, supply stable",
+      "affectedTickers": []
+    }
+  ],
+  "markdown": "# World (2026-05-11 23:45 UTC)\nRegime: Broad up-skew — markets resolving toward higher probability\nSimpleFunctions Index: Disagree 35 | GeoRisk 23 | Breadth +0.53 | Activity 29\nBaseline: last 12h\n\n## [divergence] margin of victory for Republicans in … lagging Republican win the House race for AL-… — 72¢ gap [US Elections]\n- lhs: {\"name\":\"Will Republican win the House race for AL-02?: Republican party\",\"Δ\":\"39c\"}\n- rhs: {\"name\":\"Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Michigan's 10th District House\",\"Δ\":\"29c\"}\n- gap: 72\n- theme: US Elections\n- triggerTicker: KXHOUSERACE-AL02-26-R\n- laggingTicker: KXMIDTERMMOV-MI10R-P1\n  → why? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-5w9nmt`\n  → Will Republican win the House race for AL-02?: Republican party spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → 6h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`\n\n## [divergence] XRP trimmed mean be above:59 PM ET? overshooting Dogecoin price? — 51¢ gap [Crypto]\n- lhs: {\"name\":\"Dogecoin price  on May 15, 2026?: $0.105 or above\",\"Δ\":\"-73c\"}\n- rhs: {\"name\":\"Will XRP trimmed mean be above $1.50 by 11:59 PM ET on May 31, 2026?: Above $1.5\",\"Δ\":\"87c\"}\n- gap: -51\n- theme: Crypto\n- triggerTicker: KXDOGED-26MAY1517-T0.1049999\n- laggingTicker: KXXRPMAXMON-XRP-26MAY31-150\n  → why? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-7khkod`\n  → Dogecoin price  on May 15, 2026?: $0.105 or above spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → 6h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`\n\n## [consensus_break] Italy inflation rate YoY for April be above …: 8 markets deeply split (σ=44¢, range 94¢)\n- seriesKey: KXITCPIPREL\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"KXITCPIPREL-26MAY15-T2.4\",\"title\":\"Will Italy inflation rate YoY for April 2026 be above 2.4%?: Above 2.4%\",\"price\":97},{\"ticker\":\"KXITCPIPREL-26MAY15-T2.5\",\"title\":...\n- dispersion: 44\n- range: 94\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n  → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-ji4oc6`\n\n## [consensus_break] Howard Lutnick attend any part of Donald Tru…: 11 markets deeply split (σ=43¢, range 90¢)\n- seriesKey: KXATTENDTRUMPCHINA\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"KXATTENDTRUMPCHINA-27JAN-JHUA\",\"title\":\"Will Jensen Huang attend any part of Donald Trump’s first visit to China after Issuance?: Jensen Huang\",\"price\":3},{\"ticker\":...\n- dispersion: 43\n- range: 90\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n  → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → drill china · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/china`\n  → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-z4mliz`\n\n## [consensus_break] James Bialota be the Republican nominee for …: 3 markets deeply split (σ=43¢, range 92¢)\n- seriesKey: KXSDPRIMARY\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"KXSDPRIMARY-ALR26-MJAC\",\"title\":\"Will Marty Jackley be the Republican nominee for SD-AL?: Marty Jackley\",\"price\":95},{\"ticker\":\"KXSDPRIMARY-ALR26-JBIA\",\"title\":\"Will...\n- dispersion: 43\n- range: 92\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n  → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-jf3zpp`\n\n## [resolving_soon] 95% yes in 4h — #1 Movie on Netflix have at least 15 million…\n- ticker: KXNETFLIXTOPVIEWSMOVIE-26MAY11-15\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will the #1 Movie on Netflix have at least 15 million views?: At least 15 million\n- price: 95\n- settlesInHours: 4\n- impliedProbability: 0.95\n- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢\n- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢\n  → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXNETFLIXTOPVIEWSMOVIE-26MAY11-15`\n  → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=catalyst`\n  → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXNETFLIXTOPVIEWSMOVIE-26MAY11-15`\n\n## [resolving_soon] 95% yes in 4h — #1 Movie on Netflix have at least 35 million…\n- ticker: KXNETFLIXTOPVIEWSMOVIE-26MAY11-35\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will the #1 Movie on Netflix have at least 35 million views?: At least 35 million\n- price: 95\n- settlesInHours: 4\n- impliedProbability: 0.95\n- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢\n- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢\n  → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXNETFLIXTOPVIEWSMOVIE-26MAY11-35`\n  → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=catalyst`\n  → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXNETFLIXTOPVIEWSMOVIE-26MAY11-35`\n\n## [resolving_soon] 95% yes in 4h — #2 US Netflix Show?: Man on Fire\n- ticker: KXNETFLIXRANKSHOWRUNNERUP-26MAY11-MAN\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: #2 US Netflix Show on May 11, 2026?: Man on Fire: Season 1\n- price: 95\n- settlesInHours: 4\n- impliedProbability: 0.95\n- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢\n- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢\n  → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXNETFLIXRANKSHOWRUNNERUP-26MAY11-MAN`\n  → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=catalyst`\n  → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXNETFLIXRANKSHOWRUNNERUP-26MAY11-MAN`\n\n## [divergence] Equity-oil split: SPY +1.1% vs Oil -2.5% — demand pulling, supply stable\n- lhs: {\"name\":\"SPY\",\"Δ\":\"+1.1%\"}\n- rhs: {\"name\":\"USO\",\"Δ\":\"-2.5%\"}\n- hypothesis: demand pulling, supply stable\n  → why? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-4075jg`\n  → SPY spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → 6h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`\n\n## [residual] 0.9σ volume @ 88¢ — above 0 jobs be added in May?\n- ticker: KXPAYROLLS-26MAY-T0\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will above 0 jobs be added in May 2026?: Above 0\n- price: 88\n- residualVr: 0.93\n- vr: 1.17\n- volume24h: 691.36\n  → why moving? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-a7ljsl`\n  → volume path · `GET /api/public/market/KXPAYROLLS-26MAY-T0`\n  → related · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXPAYROLLS-26MAY-T0`\n\n## Zoom\n- **Iran** — 219 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/iran`\n- **Oil & Energy** — 415 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/oil`\n- **Fed & Rates** — 1233 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/fed-rate`\n- **Recession** — 646 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/recession`\n- **2026 Elections** — 2930 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/election-2026`\n- **Crypto** — 1090 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/bitcoin`\n- **Ukraine/Russia** — 286 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/ukraine`\n- **China/Taiwan** — 305 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/china`\n\n---\nPath: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world\nOp: snapshot · Generated in 3456ms",
+  "markdownTokenEstimate": 1783
+}