Add world state snapshot for 2026-04-20

2026-04-20.json

@@ -0,0 +1,123 @@
+{
+  "date": "2026-04-20",
+  "timestamp": "2026-04-20T23:50:40.397Z",
+  "index": {
+    "disagreement": 46,
+    "geoRisk": 31,
+    "breadth": 0.46,
+    "activity": 57
+  },
+  "traditional": [
+    {
+      "symbol": "SPY",
+      "price": 710.26,
+      "changePct": 1.15
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "QQQ",
+      "price": 648.75,
+      "changePct": 1.46
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "IWM",
+      "price": 275.61,
+      "changePct": 2.08
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "VIXY",
+      "price": 27.98,
+      "changePct": -1.13
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "SHY",
+      "price": 82.63,
+      "changePct": 0.17
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "IEF",
+      "price": 95.91,
+      "changePct": 0.53
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "TLT",
+      "price": 87.06,
+      "changePct": 0.97
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "HYG",
+      "price": 80.63,
+      "changePct": 0.36
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "GLD",
+      "price": 444.27,
+      "changePct": 1.04
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "USO",
+      "price": 116.49,
+      "changePct": -7.26
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "UNG",
+      "price": 10.83,
+      "changePct": 0.28
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "CPER",
+      "price": 37.3,
+      "changePct": 1.03
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "UUP",
+      "price": 27.35,
+      "changePct": -0.02
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "FXE",
+      "price": 108.63,
+      "changePct": -0.09
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "XLE",
+      "price": 54.9,
+      "changePct": -3.04
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "EEM",
+      "price": 63.61,
+      "changePct": 1.88
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "IBIT",
+      "price": 43.86,
+      "changePct": 2.81
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "ETHE",
+      "price": 19.73,
+      "changePct": 2.95
+    }
+  ],
+  "topics": [],
+  "topEdges": [],
+  "divergences": [
+    {
+      "description": "How many ships will Iran successfully… lagging How many ships will Iran successfully… — 19¢ gap [Iran / Hormuz crisis]",
+      "implication": "",
+      "affectedTickers": []
+    },
+    {
+      "description": "min WTI front month settle price reac… overshooting What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in … — 16¢ gap [Oil & energy]",
+      "implication": "",
+      "affectedTickers": []
+    },
+    {
+      "description": "Trump say \"Bibi / Netanyahu\"? lagging Israel military action against Damasc… — 16¢ gap [Middle East / Israel]",
+      "implication": "",
+      "affectedTickers": []
+    }
+  ],
+  "markdown": "# World (2026-04-20 23:40 UTC)\nRegime: Broad up-skew — markets resolving toward higher probability\nSF Index: Disagree 46 | GeoRisk 31 | Breadth +0.46 | Activity 57\nBaseline: last 12h\n\n## [residual] 7.6σ volume @ 44¢ — federal funds rate be above 3.50%?\n- ticker: KXFED-27APR-T3.50\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting?: Above 3.50%\n- price: 44\n- residualVr: 7.607\n- vr: 8.358\n- volume24h: 696\n  → why moving? · `GET /api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-om3y0x`\n  → volume path · `GET /api/public/market/KXFED-27APR-T3.50`\n  → related · `GET /api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXFED-27APR-T3.50`\n\n## [divergence] How many ships will Iran successfully… lagging How many ships will Iran successfully… — 19¢ gap [Iran / Hormuz crisis]\n- lhs: {\"name\":\"How many ships will Iran successfully target by April 30?: 10+\",\"Δ\":\"15c\"}\n- rhs: {\"name\":\"How many ships will Iran successfully target by April 30?: 6–7\",\"Δ\":\"33c\"}\n- gap: 19\n- theme: Iran / Hormuz crisis\n- triggerTicker: 0x062665fd43dd992de43e8d317ced9135252d2cbca5bacf35633e98237abd023f\n- laggingTicker: 0xa39e59a436f93cd170395a2ad3595a62149f4bf8919157052fbb88fbad9a1208\n  → why? · `GET /api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-hfl7wz`\n  → How many ships will Iran successfully target by April 30?: 10+ spread · `GET /api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → 6h path · `GET /api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`\n\n## [consensus_break] BNB price?: 12 markets deeply split (σ=43¢, range 87¢)\n- seriesKey: KXBNBD\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"KXBNBD-26APR2417-T504.99\",\"title\":\"BNB price  on Apr 24, 2026?: $505 or above\",\"price\":90},{\"ticker\":\"KXBNBD-26APR2417-T509.99\",\"title\":\"BNB price  on Apr 24, 2026?:...\n- dispersion: 43\n- range: 87\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n  → full spread · `GET /api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → drill iran · `GET /api/agent/world/iran`\n  → why disagree? · `GET /api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-anghki`\n\n## [consensus_break] RTX 5090 compute per hour price be above?: 40 markets deeply split (σ=43¢, range 94¢)\n- seriesKey: KXRTX5090MON\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"KXRTX5090MON-26APR30-0.283\",\"title\":\"Will the RTX 5090 compute per hour price be above $0.283 on Apr 30?: Above $0.28\",\"price\":97},{\"ticker\":\"KXRTX5090MON-26APR30-0....\n- dispersion: 43\n- range: 94\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n  → full spread · `GET /api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → drill iran · `GET /api/agent/world/iran`\n  → why disagree? · `GET /api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-qbdlvs`\n\n## [consensus_break] Republicans win the Senate race in Colorado?: 4 markets deeply split (σ=43¢, range 90¢)\n- seriesKey: SENATECO\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"SENATECO-28-D\",\"title\":\"Will Democratics win the Senate race in Colorado?: Democratic party\",\"price\":87},{\"ticker\":\"SENATECO-28-R\",\"title\":\"Will Republicans win the ...\n- dispersion: 43\n- range: 90\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n  → full spread · `GET /api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → drill iran · `GET /api/agent/world/iran`\n  → why disagree? · `GET /api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-gn87t`\n\n## [divergence] min WTI front month settle price reac… overshooting What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in … — 16¢ gap [Oil & energy]\n- lhs: {\"name\":\"What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in April 2026?: ↑ $90\",\"Δ\":\"-20c\"}\n- rhs: {\"name\":\"Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $82 by Apr 30, 2026?: 81.99 \",\"Δ\":\"15c\"}\n- gap: -16\n- theme: Oil & energy\n- triggerTicker: 0x41b7f92e082fee780113808dd56fa7c58f29a04fc61edbf5140669b83d9fa492\n- laggingTicker: KXWTIMINM-26APR30-T82\n  → why? · `GET /api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-asb2q3`\n  → What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in April 2026?: ↑ $90 spread · `GET /api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → 6h path · `GET /api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`\n\n## [divergence] Trump say \"Bibi / Netanyahu\"? lagging Israel military action against Damasc… — 16¢ gap [Middle East / Israel]\n- lhs: {\"name\":\"Israel military action against Damascus by...?: June 30\",\"Δ\":\"19c\"}\n- rhs: {\"name\":\"Will Trump say \\\"Bibi / Netanyahu\\\" before Apr 27, 2026?: Bibi / Netanyahu\",\"Δ\":\"70c\"}\n- gap: 16\n- theme: Middle East / Israel\n- triggerTicker: 0xeb4beaefa070c6ccfef90eb088852246c9e965b2672a83bc6f4c36ae347817f4\n- laggingTicker: KXTRUMPSAY-26APR27-BIBI\n  → why? · `GET /api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-cvbrs4`\n  → Israel military action against Damascus by...?: June 30 spread · `GET /api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → 6h path · `GET /api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`\n\n## [regime_shift] market gone quiet: Activity 100→57 (-43)\n- baselineAt: 2026-04-20T11:45:00.193Z\n- driver: \n- primaryMover: Activity\n- moves: [{\"k\":\"Activity\",\"from\":100,\"to\":57,\"Δ\":-43,\"unit\":\"\"}]\n- atBaseline: {\"disagreement\":41,\"geoRisk\":27,\"breadth\":0.35,\"activity\":100}\n- now: {\"disagreement\":46,\"geoRisk\":31,\"breadth\":0.46,\"activity\":57}\n  → 24h path · `GET /api/agent/world?op=history&dt=24h`\n\n## [resolving_soon] 95% yes in 4h — #2 US Netflix Movie?\n- ticker: KXNETFLIXRANKMOVIERUNNERUP-26APR20-ROO\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: #2 US Netflix Movie on Apr 20, 2026?: Roommates\n- price: 95\n- settlesInHours: 4\n- impliedProbability: 0.95\n- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢\n- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢\n  → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXNETFLIXRANKMOVIERUNNERUP-26APR20-ROO`\n  → nearby resolutions · `GET /api/agent/world?op=catalyst`\n  → siblings · `GET /api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXNETFLIXRANKMOVIERUNNERUP-26APR20-ROO`\n\n## [resolving_soon] 95% yes in 4h — average **gas prices** be above?\n- ticker: KXAAAGASD-26APR21-4.020\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will average **gas prices** be above $4.020?: Above 4.020\n- price: 95\n- settlesInHours: 4\n- impliedProbability: 0.95\n- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢\n- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢\n  → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXAAAGASD-26APR21-4.020`\n  → nearby resolutions · `GET /api/agent/world?op=catalyst`\n  → siblings · `GET /api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXAAAGASD-26APR21-4.020`\n\n## Zoom\n- **Iran** — 265 markets → `GET /api/agent/world/iran`\n- **Oil & Energy** — 515 markets → `GET /api/agent/world/oil`\n- **Fed & Rates** — 1265 markets → `GET /api/agent/world/fed-rate`\n- **Recession** — 659 markets → `GET /api/agent/world/recession`\n- **2026 Elections** — 2815 markets → `GET /api/agent/world/election-2026`\n- **Crypto** — 1486 markets → `GET /api/agent/world/bitcoin`\n- **Ukraine/Russia** — 273 markets → `GET /api/agent/world/ukraine`\n- **China/Taiwan** — 224 markets → `GET /api/agent/world/china`\n\n---\nPath: /api/agent/world\nOp: snapshot · Generated in 4553ms",
+  "markdownTokenEstimate": 1640
+}