Add world state snapshot for 2026-05-05

2026-05-05.json

@@ -0,0 +1,123 @@
+{
+  "date": "2026-05-05",
+  "timestamp": "2026-05-05T23:50:42.417Z",
+  "index": {
+    "disagreement": 51,
+    "geoRisk": 16,
+    "breadth": 0.47,
+    "activity": 50
+  },
+  "traditional": [
+    {
+      "symbol": "SPY",
+      "price": 718.09,
+      "changePct": -0.23
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "QQQ",
+      "price": 671.81,
+      "changePct": -0.19
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "IWM",
+      "price": 277.56,
+      "changePct": -0.42
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "VIXY",
+      "price": 27.7,
+      "changePct": 1.21
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "SHY",
+      "price": 82.16,
+      "changePct": -0.1
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "IEF",
+      "price": 94.4,
+      "changePct": -0.39
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "TLT",
+      "price": 84.98,
+      "changePct": -0.81
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "HYG",
+      "price": 79.81,
+      "changePct": -0.33
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "GLD",
+      "price": 414.98,
+      "changePct": -1.95
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "USO",
+      "price": 147.37,
+      "changePct": 2.75
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "UNG",
+      "price": 10.96,
+      "changePct": 2.33
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "CPER",
+      "price": 35.57,
+      "changePct": -1.85
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "UUP",
+      "price": 27.48,
+      "changePct": 0.2
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "FXE",
+      "price": 107.89,
+      "changePct": -0.21
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "XLE",
+      "price": 59.41,
+      "changePct": 0.99
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "EEM",
+      "price": 64.02,
+      "changePct": -0.3
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "IBIT",
+      "price": 45.34,
+      "changePct": 2.65
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "ETHE",
+      "price": 19.14,
+      "changePct": 2.22
+    }
+  ],
+  "topics": [],
+  "topEdges": [],
+  "divergences": [
+    {
+      "description": "Dogecoin price? lagging MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by __… — 59¢ gap [Crypto]",
+      "implication": "",
+      "affectedTickers": []
+    },
+    {
+      "description": "NY-06 Democratic Primary Winner overshooting Gavin Newsom endorse no one in the Ca… — 32¢ gap [US Elections]",
+      "implication": "",
+      "affectedTickers": []
+    },
+    {
+      "description": "Israel and Colombia normalize relatio… lagging Jordan Spieth beat Sepp Straka in the… — 29¢ gap [Middle East / Israel]",
+      "implication": "",
+      "affectedTickers": []
+    }
+  ],
+  "markdown": "# World (2026-05-05 23:40 UTC)\nRegime: Broad up-skew — markets resolving toward higher probability\nSF Index: Disagree 49 | GeoRisk 15 | Breadth +0.46 | Activity 43\nBaseline: last 12h\n\n## [divergence] Dogecoin price? lagging MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by __… — 58¢ gap [Crypto]\n- lhs: {\"name\":\"MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ ?: December 31, 2026\",\"Δ\":\"38c\"}\n- rhs: {\"name\":\"Dogecoin price  on May 8, 2026?: $0.07 or above\",\"Δ\":\"50c\"}\n- gap: 58\n- theme: Crypto\n- triggerTicker: 0x8213d395e079614d6c4d7f4cbb9be9337ab51648a21cc2a334ae8f1966d164b4\n- laggingTicker: KXDOGED-26MAY0817-T0.0699999\n  → why? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-s4en27`\n  → MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ ?: December 31, 2026 spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → 6h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`\n\n## [divergence] NY-06 Democratic Primary Winner overshooting Gavin Newsom endorse no one in the Ca… — 34¢ gap [US Elections]\n- lhs: {\"name\":\"Will Gavin Newsom endorse no one in the 2026 California gubernatorial race befor\",\"Δ\":\"-54c\"}\n- rhs: {\"name\":\"NY-06 Democratic Primary Winner: Charles Park\",\"Δ\":\"27c\"}\n- gap: -34\n- theme: US Elections\n- triggerTicker: KXNEWSOMENDORSE-26JUN02-NONE\n- laggingTicker: 0xa35e08ad7737b6a9e4c968ad5a091b24eeba6a76fbfcfede25d245dbc9b686a9\n  → why? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-9fpm6k`\n  → Will Gavin Newsom endorse no one in the 2026 California gubernatorial race befor spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → 6h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`\n\n## [divergence] Israel and Colombia normalize relatio… lagging Jordan Spieth beat Sepp Straka in the… — 29¢ gap [Middle East / Israel]\n- lhs: {\"name\":\"Will Jordan Spieth beat Sepp Straka in the 1st round of the Truist Championship?\",\"Δ\":\"45c\"}\n- rhs: {\"name\":\"Will Israel and Colombia normalize relations before Jan 1, 2027?: Colombia\",\"Δ\":\"39c\"}\n- gap: 29\n- theme: Middle East / Israel\n- triggerTicker: KXPGAH2H-TRC26R1JSPISSTR-JSPI\n- laggingTicker: KXABRAHAMSA-27-JAN01-COLO\n  → why? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-uf8jc5`\n  → Will Jordan Spieth beat Sepp Straka in the 1st round of the Truist Championship? spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → 6h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`\n\n## [consensus_break] Which parties will be part of the next Gover…: 9 markets deeply split (σ=44¢, range 94¢)\n- seriesKey: 263217\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"0xd7713592ea6b082909b781cec004fb8081e335ceb54c16328ab0de5e95bd25af\",\"title\":\"Which parties will be part of the next Government of Slovenia?: Slovenian Democratic Par...\n- dispersion: 44\n- range: 94\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n  → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-xswsjk`\n\n## [consensus_break] Florida Republican Senate Primary Winner: 3 markets deeply split (σ=43¢, range 92¢)\n- seriesKey: 89321\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"0x9743ef770e5caafc6a8676aaa87d4303908ebf31f42826cc152948964d0a05d7\",\"title\":\"Florida Republican Senate Primary Winner: Ashley B. Moody\",\"price\":95},{\"ticker\":\"0x0a9c...\n- dispersion: 43\n- range: 92\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n  → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-6wtqre`\n\n## [consensus_break] Peru Presidential Election First Round: 3 markets deeply split (σ=43¢, range 92¢)\n- seriesKey: 287772\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"0x53316ee53bbb1f8b488371cbcf29b851838909ff1bd266fac86bd3d62c99093b\",\"title\":\"Peru Presidential Election First Round: Turnout: 70-75%\",\"price\":95},{\"ticker\":\"0x307764...\n- dispersion: 43\n- range: 92\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n  → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → drill election-2026 · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/election-2026`\n  → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-xu31iw`\n\n## [resolving_soon] 95% no in 4h — average **gas prices** be above?\n- ticker: KXAAAGASD-26MAY06-4.540\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will average **gas prices** be above $4.540?: Above 4.540\n- price: 5\n- settlesInHours: 4\n- impliedProbability: 0.05\n- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢\n- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢\n  → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXAAAGASD-26MAY06-4.540`\n  → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=catalyst`\n  → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXAAAGASD-26MAY06-4.540`\n\n## [resolving_soon] 91% yes in 4h — average **gas prices** be above?\n- ticker: KXAAAGASD-26MAY06-4.515\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will average **gas prices** be above $4.515?: Above 4.515\n- price: 91\n- settlesInHours: 4\n- impliedProbability: 0.91\n- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢\n- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢\n  → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXAAAGASD-26MAY06-4.515`\n  → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=catalyst`\n  → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXAAAGASD-26MAY06-4.515`\n\n## [resolving_soon] 90% no in 4h — average **gas prices** be above?\n- ticker: KXAAAGASD-26MAY06-4.535\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will average **gas prices** be above $4.535?: Above 4.535\n- price: 10\n- settlesInHours: 4\n- impliedProbability: 0.1\n- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢\n- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢\n  → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXAAAGASD-26MAY06-4.535`\n  → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=catalyst`\n  → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXAAAGASD-26MAY06-4.535`\n\n## [regime_shift] dispersion up — fading conviction: GeoRisk 33→15 (-18), Disagreement 39→49 (+10)\n- baselineAt: 2026-05-05T11:45:00.054Z\n- driver: geopolitics\n- primaryMover: GeoRisk\n- moves: [{\"k\":\"GeoRisk\",\"from\":33,\"to\":15,\"Δ\":-18,\"unit\":\"\"},{\"k\":\"Disagreement\",\"from\":39,\"to\":49,\"Δ\":10,\"unit\":\"\"}]\n- atBaseline: {\"disagreement\":39,\"geoRisk\":33,\"breadth\":0.37,\"activity\":29}\n- now: {\"disagreement\":49,\"geoRisk\":15,\"breadth\":0.46,\"activity\":43}\n  → drill into geopolitics · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/geopolitics`\n  → 24h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=24h`\n\n## Zoom\n- **Iran** — 202 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/iran`\n- **Oil & Energy** — 414 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/oil`\n- **Fed & Rates** — 1209 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/fed-rate`\n- **Recession** — 667 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/recession`\n- **2026 Elections** — 2921 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/election-2026`\n- **Crypto** — 1447 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/bitcoin`\n- **Ukraine/Russia** — 280 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/ukraine`\n- **China/Taiwan** — 266 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/china`\n\n---\nPath: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world\nOp: snapshot · Generated in 0ms",
+  "markdownTokenEstimate": 1870
+}