Scaling with Collapse: Efficient and Predictable Training of LLM Families

Effective LLM training depends on predictable scaling of key quantities -- such as final loss and optimal hyperparameters -- with model and dataset size. Qiu et al. (2025) recently showed that this predictability can extend beyond scalars: whole training loss curves can *collapse* onto a universal trajectory after a simple normalization. What remains unclear is whether this phenomenon persists for LLM families trained under *practical scaling recipes*, where width, depth, learning rate, batch size, and weight decay are scaled jointly. We show that it does: loss curves collapse across scales precisely when optimization hyperparameters are set optimally for the given data budget, in accordance with recent empirical scaling laws. Collapse therefore emerges as a signature of compute-efficient training. We demonstrate two applications at scale: (1) deviation-from-collapse provides a sensitive, early diagnostic of training pathologies, and (2) predictability of collapsed curves enables early stopping in large-scale hyperparameter tuning. Finally, we train a competitive LLM family, *Celerity*, using these insights, establishing collapse as an effective tool for developing efficient LLMs.