Daily Papers

Model fusion is a key strategy for robust recognition in unconstrained scenarios, as different models provide complementary strengths. This is especially important for whole-body human recognition, where biometric cues such as face, gait, and body shape vary across samples and are typically integrated via score-fusion. However, existing score-fusion strategies are usually static, invoking all models for every test sample regardless of sample quality or modality reliability. To overcome these limitations, we propose FusionAgent, a novel agentic framework that leverages a Multimodal Large Language Model (MLLM) to perform dynamic, sample-specific model selection. Each expert model is treated as a tool, and through Reinforcement Fine-Tuning (RFT) with a metric-based reward, the agent learns to adaptively determine the optimal model combination for each test input. To address the model score misalignment and embedding heterogeneity, we introduce Anchor-based Confidence Top-k (ACT) score-fusion, which anchors on the most confident model and integrates complementary predictions in a confidence-aware manner. Extensive experiments on multiple whole-body biometric benchmarks demonstrate that FusionAgent significantly outperforms SoTA methods while achieving higher efficiency through fewer model invocations, underscoring the critical role of dynamic, explainable, and robust model fusion in real-world recognition systems. Project page: https://fusionagent.github.io/{FusionAgent}.

The ``LLM-as-a-judge'' paradigm has become a standard method for evaluating open-ended generation. To address the quadratic scalability costs of pairwise comparisons, popular benchmarks like Arena-Hard and AlpacaEval compare all models against a single anchor. However, despite its widespread use, the impact of anchor selection on the reliability of the results remains largely unexplored. In this work, we systematically investigate the effect of anchor selection by evaluating 22 different anchors on the Arena-Hard-v2.0 dataset. We find that the choice of anchor is critical: a poor anchor can dramatically reduce correlation with human rankings. We identify that common anchor choices (best-performing and worst-performing models) make poor anchors. Because these extreme anchors are consistently better or worse than all other models, they are seldom indicative of the relative ranking of the models. We further quantify the effect size of anchor selection, showing it is comparable to the selection of a judge model. We conclude with actionable recommendations. First, we conduct a power analysis, and compute sufficient benchmark sizes for anchor-based evaluation, finding that standard benchmark sizes are insufficient for pairwise evaluation and fail to distinguish between competitive models reliably. Second, we provide guidelines for selecting informative anchors to ensure reliable and efficient evaluation practices.

Model evolution and constant availability of data are two common phenomena in large-scale real-world machine learning applications, e.g. ads and recommendation systems. To adapt, the real-world system typically retrain with all available data and online learn with recently available data to update the models periodically with the goal of better serving performance. In this paper, we propose a novel framework, named Confidence Ranking, which designs the optimization objective as a ranking function with two different models. Our confidence ranking loss allows direct optimization of the logits output for different convex surrogate functions of metrics, e.g. AUC and Accuracy depending on the target task and dataset. Armed with our proposed methods, our experiments show that the introduction of confidence ranking loss can outperform all baselines on the CTR prediction tasks of public and industrial datasets. This framework has been deployed in the advertisement system of JD.com to serve the main traffic in the fine-rank stage.

Anchors (Ribeiro et al., 2018) is a post-hoc, rule-based interpretability method. For text data, it proposes to explain a decision by highlighting a small set of words (an anchor) such that the model to explain has similar outputs when they are present in a document. In this paper, we present the first theoretical analysis of Anchors, considering that the search for the best anchor is exhaustive. After formalizing the algorithm for text classification, we present explicit results on different classes of models when the vectorization step is TF-IDF, and words are replaced by a fixed out-of-dictionary token when removed. Our inquiry covers models such as elementary if-then rules and linear classifiers. We then leverage this analysis to gain insights on the behavior of Anchors for any differentiable classifiers. For neural networks, we empirically show that the words corresponding to the highest partial derivatives of the model with respect to the input, reweighted by the inverse document frequencies, are selected by Anchors.

Recent advances in machine learning have significantly improved prediction accuracy in various applications. However, ensuring the calibration of probabilistic predictions remains a significant challenge. Despite efforts to enhance model calibration, the rigorous statistical evaluation of model calibration remains less explored. In this work, we develop confidence intervals the ell_2 Expected Calibration Error (ECE). We consider top-1-to-k calibration, which includes both the popular notion of confidence calibration as well as full calibration. For a debiased estimator of the ECE, we show asymptotic normality, but with different convergence rates and asymptotic variances for calibrated and miscalibrated models. We develop methods to construct asymptotically valid confidence intervals for the ECE, accounting for this behavior as well as non-negativity. Our theoretical findings are supported through extensive experiments, showing that our methods produce valid confidence intervals with shorter lengths compared to those obtained by resampling-based methods.

Neural ranking models (NRMs) have achieved promising results in information retrieval. NRMs have also been shown to be vulnerable to adversarial examples. A typical Word Substitution Ranking Attack (WSRA) against NRMs was proposed recently, in which an attacker promotes a target document in rankings by adding human-imperceptible perturbations to its text. This raises concerns when deploying NRMs in real-world applications. Therefore, it is important to develop techniques that defend against such attacks for NRMs. In empirical defenses adversarial examples are found during training and used to augment the training set. However, such methods offer no theoretical guarantee on the models' robustness and may eventually be broken by other sophisticated WSRAs. To escape this arms race, rigorous and provable certified defense methods for NRMs are needed. To this end, we first define the Certified Top-K Robustness for ranking models since users mainly care about the top ranked results in real-world scenarios. A ranking model is said to be Certified Top-K Robust on a ranked list when it is guaranteed to keep documents that are out of the top K away from the top K under any attack. Then, we introduce a Certified Defense method, named CertDR, to achieve certified top-K robustness against WSRA, based on the idea of randomized smoothing. Specifically, we first construct a smoothed ranker by applying random word substitutions on the documents, and then leverage the ranking property jointly with the statistical property of the ensemble to provably certify top-K robustness. Extensive experiments on two representative web search datasets demonstrate that CertDR can significantly outperform state-of-the-art empirical defense methods for ranking models.

Estimating uncertainty or confidence in the responses of a model can be significant in evaluating trust not only in the responses, but also in the model as a whole. In this paper, we explore the problem of estimating confidence for responses of large language models (LLMs) with simply black-box or query access to them. We propose a simple and extensible framework where, we engineer novel features and train a (interpretable) model (viz. logistic regression) on these features to estimate the confidence. We empirically demonstrate that our simple framework is effective in estimating confidence of flan-ul2, llama-13b and mistral-7b with it consistently outperforming existing black-box confidence estimation approaches on benchmark datasets such as TriviaQA, SQuAD, CoQA and Natural Questions by even over 10% (on AUROC) in some cases. Additionally, our interpretable approach provides insight into features that are predictive of confidence, leading to the interesting and useful discovery that our confidence models built for one LLM generalize zero-shot across others on a given dataset.

Self-training is a well-known approach for semi-supervised learning. It consists of iteratively assigning pseudo-labels to unlabeled data for which the model is confident and treating them as labeled examples. For neural networks, softmax prediction probabilities are often used as a confidence measure, although they are known to be overconfident, even for wrong predictions. This phenomenon is particularly intensified in the presence of sample selection bias, i.e., when data labeling is subject to some constraint. To address this issue, we propose a novel confidence measure, called T-similarity, built upon the prediction diversity of an ensemble of linear classifiers. We provide the theoretical analysis of our approach by studying stationary points and describing the relationship between the diversity of the individual members and their performance. We empirically demonstrate the benefit of our confidence measure for three different pseudo-labeling policies on classification datasets of various data modalities. The code is available at https://github.com/ambroiseodt/tsim.

Active learning for imbalanced classification tasks is challenging as the minority classes naturally occur rarely. Gathering a large pool of unlabelled data is thus essential to capture minority instances. Standard pool-based active learning is computationally expensive on large pools and often reaches low accuracy by overfitting the initial decision boundary, thus failing to explore the input space and find minority instances. To address these issues we propose AnchorAL. At each iteration, AnchorAL chooses class-specific instances from the labelled set, or anchors, and retrieves the most similar unlabelled instances from the pool. This resulting subpool is then used for active learning. Using a small, fixed-sized subpool AnchorAL allows scaling any active learning strategy to large pools. By dynamically selecting different anchors at each iteration it promotes class balance and prevents overfitting the initial decision boundary, thus promoting the discovery of new clusters of minority instances. Experiments across different classification tasks, active learning strategies, and model architectures AnchorAL is (i) faster, often reducing runtime from hours to minutes, (ii) trains more performant models, (iii) and returns more balanced datasets than competing methods.

Self-supervised learning on large-scale multi-modal datasets allows learning semantically meaningful embeddings in a joint multi-modal representation space without relying on human annotations. These joint embeddings enable zero-shot cross-modal tasks like retrieval and classification. However, these methods often struggle to generalize well on out-of-domain data as they ignore the semantic structure present in modality-specific embeddings. In this context, we propose a novel Semantic-Structure-Preserving Consistency approach to improve generalizability by preserving the modality-specific relationships in the joint embedding space. To capture modality-specific semantic relationships between samples, we propose to learn multiple anchors and represent the multifaceted relationship between samples with respect to their relationship with these anchors. To assign multiple anchors to each sample, we propose a novel Multi-Assignment Sinkhorn-Knopp algorithm. Our experimentation demonstrates that our proposed approach learns semantically meaningful anchors in a self-supervised manner. Furthermore, our evaluation on MSR-VTT and YouCook2 datasets demonstrates that our proposed multi-anchor assignment based solution achieves state-of-the-art performance and generalizes to both inand out-of-domain datasets. Code: https://github.com/Swetha5/Multi_Sinkhorn_Knopp

Cascade Ranking is a prevalent architecture in large-scale top-k selection systems like recommendation and advertising platforms. Traditional training methods focus on single-stage optimization, neglecting interactions between stages. Recent advances have introduced interaction-aware training paradigms, but still struggle to 1) align training objectives with the goal of the entire cascade ranking (i.e., end-to-end recall of ground-truth items) and 2) learn effective collaboration patterns for different stages. To address these challenges, we propose LCRON, which introduces a novel surrogate loss function derived from the lower bound probability that ground truth items are selected by cascade ranking, ensuring alignment with the overall objective of the system. According to the properties of the derived bound, we further design an auxiliary loss for each stage to drive the reduction of this bound, leading to a more robust and effective top-k selection. LCRON enables end-to-end training of the entire cascade ranking system as a unified network. Experimental results demonstrate that LCRON achieves significant improvement over existing methods on public benchmarks and industrial applications, addressing key limitations in cascade ranking training and significantly enhancing system performance.

Large language models (LLMs) can increase users' perceived trust by verbalizing confidence in their outputs. However, prior work has shown that LLMs are often overconfident, making their stated confidence unreliable since it does not consistently align with factual accuracy. To better understand the sources of this verbalized confidence, we introduce TracVC (Tracing Verbalized Confidence), a method that builds on information retrieval and influence estimation to trace generated confidence expressions back to the training data. We evaluate TracVC on OLMo and Llama models in a question answering setting, proposing a new metric, content groundness, which measures the extent to which an LLM grounds its confidence in content-related training examples (relevant to the question and answer) versus in generic examples of confidence verbalization. Our analysis reveals that OLMo2-13B is frequently influenced by confidence-related data that is lexically unrelated to the query, suggesting that it may mimic superficial linguistic expressions of certainty rather than rely on genuine content grounding. These findings point to a fundamental limitation in current training regimes: LLMs may learn how to sound confident without learning when confidence is justified. Our analysis provides a foundation for improving LLMs' trustworthiness in expressing more reliable confidence.

Vector embeddings have been tasked with an ever-increasing set of retrieval tasks over the years, with a nascent rise in using them for reasoning, instruction-following, coding, and more. These new benchmarks push embeddings to work for any query and any notion of relevance that could be given. While prior works have pointed out theoretical limitations of vector embeddings, there is a common assumption that these difficulties are exclusively due to unrealistic queries, and those that are not can be overcome with better training data and larger models. In this work, we demonstrate that we may encounter these theoretical limitations in realistic settings with extremely simple queries. We connect known results in learning theory, showing that the number of top-k subsets of documents capable of being returned as the result of some query is limited by the dimension of the embedding. We empirically show that this holds true even if we restrict to k=2, and directly optimize on the test set with free parameterized embeddings. We then create a realistic dataset called LIMIT that stress tests models based on these theoretical results, and observe that even state-of-the-art models fail on this dataset despite the simple nature of the task. Our work shows the limits of embedding models under the existing single vector paradigm and calls for future research to develop methods that can resolve this fundamental limitation.

Semi-supervised learning is attracting blooming attention, due to its success in combining unlabeled data. To mitigate potentially incorrect pseudo labels, recent frameworks mostly set a fixed confidence threshold to discard uncertain samples. This practice ensures high-quality pseudo labels, but incurs a relatively low utilization of the whole unlabeled set. In this work, our key insight is that these uncertain samples can be turned into certain ones, as long as the confusion classes for the top-1 class are detected and removed. Invoked by this, we propose a novel method dubbed ShrinkMatch to learn uncertain samples. For each uncertain sample, it adaptively seeks a shrunk class space, which merely contains the original top-1 class, as well as remaining less likely classes. Since the confusion ones are removed in this space, the re-calculated top-1 confidence can satisfy the pre-defined threshold. We then impose a consistency regularization between a pair of strongly and weakly augmented samples in the shrunk space to strive for discriminative representations. Furthermore, considering the varied reliability among uncertain samples and the gradually improved model during training, we correspondingly design two reweighting principles for our uncertain loss. Our method exhibits impressive performance on widely adopted benchmarks. Code is available at https://github.com/LiheYoung/ShrinkMatch.

Large language models (LLMs), despite their impressive performance across a wide range of tasks, often struggle to balance two competing objectives in open-ended text generation: fostering diversity and creativity while preserving logical coherence. Existing truncated sampling techniques, including temperature scaling, top-\p (nucleus) sampling, and min-\p sampling, aim to manage this trade-off. However, they exhibit limitations, particularly in the effective incorporation of the confidence of the model into the corresponding sampling strategy. For example, min-\p sampling relies on a single top token as a heuristic for confidence, eventually underutilizing the information of the probability distribution. Toward effective incorporation of the confidence of the model, in this paper, we present **top-H** decoding. We first establish the theoretical foundation of the interplay between creativity and coherence in truncated sampling by formulating an **entropy-constrained minimum divergence** problem. We then prove this minimization problem to be equivalent to an **entropy-constrained mass maximization** (ECMM) problem, which is NP-hard. Finally, we present top-H decoding, a computationally efficient greedy algorithm to solve the ECMM problem. Extensive empirical evaluations demonstrate that top-H outperforms the state-of-the-art (SoTA) alternative of min-\p sampling by up to **25.63%** on creative writing benchmarks, while maintaining robustness on question-answering datasets such as GPQA, GSM8K, and MT-Bench. Additionally, an *LLM-as-judge* evaluation confirms that top-H indeed produces coherent outputs even at higher temperatures, where creativity is especially critical. In summary, top-H advances SoTA in open-ended text generation and can be *easily integrated* into creative writing applications. The code is available at https://github.com/ErfanBaghaei/Top-H-Decoding.

K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN) is one of the most used ML classifiers. However, if we observe closely, standard distance-weighted KNN and relative variants assume all 'k' neighbors are equally reliable. In heterogeneous feature space, this becomes a limitation that hinders reliability in predicting true levels of the observation. We propose DW-KNN (Double Weighted KNN), a transparent and robust variant that integrates exponential distance with neighbor validity. This enables instance-level interpretability, suppresses noisy or mislabeled samples, and reduces hyperparameter sensitivity. Comprehensive evaluation on 9 data-sets helps to demonstrate that DW-KNN achieves 0.8988 accuracy on average. It ranks 2nd among six methods and within 0.2% of the best-performing Ensemble KNN. It also exhibits the lowest cross-validation variance (0.0156), indicating reliable prediction stability. Statistical significance test confirmed (p < 0.001) improvement over compactness weighted KNN (+4.09\%) and Kernel weighted KNN (+1.13\%). The method provides a simple yet effective alternative to complex adaptive schemes, particularly valuable for high-stakes applications requiring explainable predictions.

Major cloud providers have employed advanced AI-based solutions like large language models to aid humans in identifying the root causes of cloud incidents. Despite the growing prevalence of AI-driven assistants in the root cause analysis process, their effectiveness in assisting on-call engineers is constrained by low accuracy due to the intrinsic difficulty of the task, a propensity for LLM-based approaches to hallucinate, and difficulties in distinguishing these well-disguised hallucinations. To address this challenge, we propose to perform confidence estimation for the predictions to help on-call engineers make decisions on whether to adopt the model prediction. Considering the black-box nature of many LLM-based root cause predictors, fine-tuning or temperature-scaling-based approaches are inapplicable. We therefore design an innovative confidence estimation framework based on prompting retrieval-augmented large language models (LLMs) that demand a minimal amount of information from the root cause predictor. This approach consists of two scoring phases: the LLM-based confidence estimator first evaluates its confidence in making judgments in the face of the current incident that reflects its ``grounded-ness" level in reference data, then rates the root cause prediction based on historical references. An optimization step combines these two scores for a final confidence assignment. We show that our method is able to produce calibrated confidence estimates for predicted root causes, validate the usefulness of retrieved historical data and the prompting strategy as well as the generalizability across different root cause prediction models. Our study takes an important move towards reliably and effectively embedding LLMs into cloud incident management systems.

Prototype-based federated learning has emerged as a promising approach that shares lightweight prototypes to transfer knowledge among clients with data heterogeneity in a model-agnostic manner. However, existing methods often collect prototypes directly from local models, which inevitably introduce inconsistencies into representation learning due to the biased data distributions and differing model architectures among clients. In this paper, we identify that both statistical and model heterogeneity create a vicious cycle of representation inconsistency, classifier divergence, and skewed prototype alignment, which negatively impacts the performance of clients. To break the vicious cycle, we propose a novel framework named Federated Learning via Semantic Anchors (FedSA) to decouple the generation of prototypes from local representation learning. We introduce a novel perspective that uses simple yet effective semantic anchors serving as prototypes to guide local models in learning consistent representations. By incorporating semantic anchors, we further propose anchor-based regularization with margin-enhanced contrastive learning and anchor-based classifier calibration to correct feature extractors and calibrate classifiers across clients, achieving intra-class compactness and inter-class separability of prototypes while ensuring consistent decision boundaries. We then update the semantic anchors with these consistent and discriminative prototypes, which iteratively encourage clients to collaboratively learn a unified data representation with robust generalization. Extensive experiments under both statistical and model heterogeneity settings show that FedSA significantly outperforms existing prototype-based FL methods on various classification tasks.

In many scenarios, the interpretability of machine learning models is a highly required but difficult task. To explain the individual predictions of such models, local model-agnostic approaches have been proposed. However, the process generating the explanations can be, for a user, as mysterious as the prediction to be explained. Furthermore, interpretability methods frequently lack theoretical guarantees, and their behavior on simple models is frequently unknown. While it is difficult, if not impossible, to ensure that an explainer behaves as expected on a cutting-edge model, we can at least ensure that everything works on simple, already interpretable models. In this paper, we present a theoretical analysis of Anchors (Ribeiro et al., 2018): a popular rule-based interpretability method that highlights a small set of words to explain a text classifier's decision. After formalizing its algorithm and providing useful insights, we demonstrate mathematically that Anchors produces meaningful results when used with linear text classifiers on top of a TF-IDF vectorization. We believe that our analysis framework can aid in the development of new explainability methods based on solid theoretical foundations.

While large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable performance across diverse tasks, they fundamentally lack self-awareness and frequently exhibit overconfidence, assigning high confidence scores to incorrect predictions. Accurate confidence estimation is therefore critical for enhancing the trustworthiness and reliability of LLM-generated outputs. However, existing approaches suffer from coarse-grained scoring mechanisms that fail to provide fine-grained, continuous confidence estimates throughout the generation process. To address these limitations, we introduce FineCE, a novel confidence estimation method that delivers accurate, fine-grained confidence scores during text generation. Specifically, we first develop a comprehensive pipeline for constructing training data that effectively captures the underlying probabilistic distribution of LLM responses, and then train a model to predict confidence scores for arbitrary text sequences in a supervised manner. Furthermore, we propose a Backward Confidence Integration (BCI) strategy that leverages information from the subsequent text to enhance confidence estimation for the current sequence during inference. We also introduce three strategies for identifying optimal positions to perform confidence estimation within the generation process. Extensive experiments on multiple benchmark datasets demonstrate that FineCE consistently outperforms existing classical confidence estimation methods. Our code and all baselines used in the paper are available on GitHub.

In the realm of recommender systems (RS), Top-K ranking metrics such as NDCG@K are the gold standard for evaluating recommendation performance. However, during the training of recommendation models, optimizing NDCG@K poses significant challenges due to its inherent discontinuous nature and the intricate Top-K truncation. Recent efforts to optimize NDCG@K have either overlooked the Top-K truncation or suffered from high computational costs and training instability. To overcome these limitations, we propose SoftmaxLoss@K (SL@K), a novel recommendation loss tailored for NDCG@K optimization. Specifically, we integrate the quantile technique to handle Top-K truncation and derive a smooth upper bound for optimizing NDCG@K to address discontinuity. The resulting SL@K loss has several desirable properties, including theoretical guarantees, ease of implementation, computational efficiency, gradient stability, and noise robustness. Extensive experiments on four real-world datasets and three recommendation backbones demonstrate that SL@K outperforms existing losses with a notable average improvement of 6.03%. The code is available at https://github.com/Tiny-Snow/IR-Benchmark.

Increasing test-time computation is a straightforward approach to enhancing the quality of responses in Large Language Models (LLMs). While Best-of-N sampling and Self-Consistency with majority voting are simple and effective, they require a fixed number of sampling responses for each query, regardless of its complexity. This could result in wasted computation for simpler questions and insufficient exploration for more challenging ones. In this work, we argue that model confidence of responses can be used for improving the efficiency of test-time scaling. Unfortunately, LLMs are known to be overconfident and provide unreliable confidence estimation. To address this limitation, we introduce Self-Calibration by distilling Self-Consistency-derived confidence into the model itself. This enables reliable confidence estimation at test time with one forward pass. We then design confidence-based efficient test-time scaling methods to handle queries of various difficulty, such as Early-Stopping for Best-of-N and Self-Consistency with calibrated confidence. Experiments on three LLMs across six datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach. Specifically, applying confidence-based Early Stopping to Best-of-N improves MathQA accuracy from 81.0 to 83.6 with a sample budget of 16 responses, indicating the efficacy of confidence-based sampling strategy at inference time.

In contrastive learning, the choice of ``view'' controls the information that the representation captures and influences the performance of the model. However, leading graph contrastive learning methods generally produce views via random corruption or learning, which could lead to the loss of essential information and alteration of semantic information. An anchor view that maintains the essential information of input graphs for contrastive learning has been hardly investigated. In this paper, based on the theory of graph information bottleneck, we deduce the definition of this anchor view; put differently, the anchor view with essential information of input graph is supposed to have the minimal structural uncertainty. Furthermore, guided by structural entropy, we implement the anchor view, termed SEGA, for graph contrastive learning. We extensively validate the proposed anchor view on various benchmarks regarding graph classification under unsupervised, semi-supervised, and transfer learning and achieve significant performance boosts compared to the state-of-the-art methods.

The rapid release of both language models and benchmarks makes it increasingly costly to evaluate every model on every dataset. In practice, models are often evaluated on different samples, making scores difficult to compare across studies. To address this, we propose a framework based on multidimensional Item Response Theory (IRT) that uses anchor items to calibrate new benchmarks to the evaluation suite while holding previously calibrated item parameters fixed. Our approach supports a realistic evaluation setting in which datasets are introduced over time and models are evaluated only on the datasets available at the time of evaluation, while a fixed anchor set for each dataset is used so that results from different evaluation periods can be compared directly. In large-scale experiments on more than 400 models, our framework predicts full-evaluation performance within 2-3 percentage points using only 100 anchor questions per dataset, with Spearman ρgeq 0.9 for ranking preservation, showing that it is possible to extend benchmark suites over time while preserving score comparability, at a constant evaluation cost per new dataset. Code available at https://github.com/eliyahabba/growing-pains

Large language models (LLMs) augmented with retrieval systems have significantly advanced natural language processing tasks by integrating external knowledge sources, enabling more accurate and contextually rich responses. To improve the robustness of such systems against noisy retrievals, Retrieval-Augmented Fine-Tuning (RAFT) has emerged as a widely adopted method. However, RAFT conditions models to generate answers even in the absence of reliable knowledge. This behavior undermines their reliability in high-stakes domains, where acknowledging uncertainty is critical. To address this issue, we propose Divide-Then-Align (DTA), a post-training approach designed to endow RAG systems with the ability to respond with "I don't know" when the query is out of the knowledge boundary of both the retrieved passages and the model's internal knowledge. DTA divides data samples into four knowledge quadrants and constructs tailored preference data for each quadrant, resulting in a curated dataset for Direct Preference Optimization (DPO). Experimental results on three benchmark datasets demonstrate that DTA effectively balances accuracy with appropriate abstention, enhancing the reliability and trustworthiness of retrieval-augmented systems.

The use of relative representations for latent embeddings has shown potential in enabling latent space communication and zero-shot model stitching across a wide range of applications. Nevertheless, relative representations rely on a certain amount of parallel anchors to be given as input, which can be impractical to obtain in certain scenarios. To overcome this limitation, we propose an optimization-based method to discover new parallel anchors from a limited known set (seed). Our approach can be used to find semantic correspondence between different domains, align their relative spaces, and achieve competitive results in several tasks.

Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) mitigates hallucinations in Large Language Models (LLMs) by integrating external knowledge. However, conflicts between parametric knowledge and retrieved context pose challenges, particularly when retrieved information is unreliable or the model's internal knowledge is outdated. In such cases, LLMs struggle to determine whether to rely more on their own parameters or the conflicted context. To address this, we propose **CK-PLUG**, a plug-and-play method for controlling LLMs' reliance on parametric and contextual knowledge. We introduce a novel knowledge consistency metric, Confidence Gain, which detects knowledge conflicts by measuring entropy shifts in token probability distributions after context insertion. CK-PLUG then enables fine-grained control over knowledge preference by adjusting the probability distribution of tokens with negative confidence gain through a single tuning parameter. Experiments demonstrate CK-PLUG's ability to significantly regulate knowledge reliance in counterfactual RAG scenarios while maintaining generation fluency and knowledge accuracy. For instance, on Llama3-8B, memory recall (MR) of RAG response can be adjusted within a broad range (9.9%-71.9%), compared to the baseline of 42.1%. Moreover, CK-PLUG supports adaptive control based on the model's confidence in both internal and external knowledge, achieving consistent performance improvements across various general RAG tasks. Our code is available at: https://github.com/byronBBL/CK-PLUG{this https URL}.

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have shown exceptional performance in the task of link prediction. Despite their effectiveness, the high latency brought by non-trivial neighborhood data dependency limits GNNs in practical deployments. Conversely, the known efficient MLPs are much less effective than GNNs due to the lack of relational knowledge. In this work, to combine the advantages of GNNs and MLPs, we start with exploring direct knowledge distillation (KD) methods for link prediction, i.e., predicted logit-based matching and node representation-based matching. Upon observing direct KD analogs do not perform well for link prediction, we propose a relational KD framework, Linkless Link Prediction (LLP), to distill knowledge for link prediction with MLPs. Unlike simple KD methods that match independent link logits or node representations, LLP distills relational knowledge that is centered around each (anchor) node to the student MLP. Specifically, we propose rank-based matching and distribution-based matching strategies that complement each other. Extensive experiments demonstrate that LLP boosts the link prediction performance of MLPs with significant margins, and even outperforms the teacher GNNs on 7 out of 8 benchmarks. LLP also achieves a 70.68x speedup in link prediction inference compared to GNNs on the large-scale OGB dataset.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are widely used as automated judges, where practical value depends on both accuracy and trustworthy, risk-aware judgments. Existing approaches predominantly focus on accuracy, overlooking the necessity of well-calibrated confidence, which is vital for adaptive and reliable evaluation pipelines. In this work, we advocate a shift from accuracy-centric evaluation to confidence-driven, risk-aware LLM-as-a-Judge systems, emphasizing the necessity of well-calibrated confidence for trustworthy and adaptive evaluation. We systematically identify the Overconfidence Phenomenon in current LLM-as-a-Judges, where predicted confidence significantly overstates actual correctness, undermining reliability in practical deployment. To quantify this phenomenon, we introduce TH-Score, a novel metric measuring confidence-accuracy alignment. Furthermore, we propose LLM-as-a-Fuser, an ensemble framework that transforms LLMs into reliable, risk-aware evaluators. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our approach substantially improves calibration and enables adaptive, confidence-driven evaluation pipelines, achieving superior reliability and accuracy compared to existing baselines.

The choice of embedding model is a crucial step in the design of Retrieval Augmented Generation (RAG) systems. Given the sheer volume of available options, identifying clusters of similar models streamlines this model selection process. Relying solely on benchmark performance scores only allows for a weak assessment of model similarity. Thus, in this study, we evaluate the similarity of embedding models within the context of RAG systems. Our assessment is two-fold: We use Centered Kernel Alignment to compare embeddings on a pair-wise level. Additionally, as it is especially pertinent to RAG systems, we evaluate the similarity of retrieval results between these models using Jaccard and rank similarity. We compare different families of embedding models, including proprietary ones, across five datasets from the popular Benchmark Information Retrieval (BEIR). Through our experiments we identify clusters of models corresponding to model families, but interestingly, also some inter-family clusters. Furthermore, our analysis of top-k retrieval similarity reveals high-variance at low k values. We also identify possible open-source alternatives to proprietary models, with Mistral exhibiting the highest similarity to OpenAI models.

Best-of-n sampling improves the accuracy of large language models (LLMs) and large reasoning models (LRMs) by generating multiple candidate solutions and selecting the one with the highest reward. The key challenge for reasoning tasks is designing a scoring function that can identify correct reasoning chains without access to ground-truth answers. We propose Probabilistic Confidence Selection And Ranking (PiCSAR): a simple, training-free method that scores each candidate generation using the joint log-likelihood of the reasoning and final answer. The joint log-likelihood of the reasoning and final answer naturally decomposes into reasoning confidence and answer confidence. PiCSAR achieves substantial gains across diverse benchmarks (+10.18 on MATH500, +9.81 on AIME2025), outperforming baselines with at least 2x fewer samples in 16 out of 20 comparisons. Our analysis reveals that correct reasoning chains exhibit significantly higher reasoning and answer confidence, justifying the effectiveness of PiCSAR.

We consider the problem of ranking n experts based on their performances on d tasks. We make a monotonicity assumption stating that for each pair of experts, one outperforms the other on all tasks. We consider the sequential setting where in each round, the learner has access to noisy evaluations of actively chosen pair of expert-task, given the information available up to the actual round. Given a confidence parameter delta in (0, 1), we provide strategies allowing to recover the correct ranking of experts and develop a bound on the total number of queries made by our algorithm that hold with probability at least 1 -- delta. We show that our strategy is adaptive to the complexity of the problem (our bounds are instance dependent), and develop matching lower bounds up to a poly-logarithmic factor. Finally, we adapt our strategy to the relaxed problem of best expert identification and provide numerical simulation consistent with our theoretical results.

Assessing the quality of Large Language Model (LLM) outputs presents a critical challenge. Previous methods either rely on text-level information (e.g., reward models, majority voting), which can overfit to superficial cues, or on calibrated confidence from token probabilities, which would fail on less-calibrated models. Yet both of these signals are, in fact, partial projections of a richer source of information: the model's internal hidden states. Early layers, closer to token embeddings, preserve semantic and lexical features that underpin text-based judgments, while later layers increasingly align with output logits, embedding confidence-related information. This paper explores hidden states directly as a unified foundation for verification. We show that the correctness of a solution is encoded as a geometrically separable signature within the trajectory of hidden activations. To validate this, we present Clue (Clustering and Experience-based Verification), a deliberately minimalist, non-parametric verifier. With no trainable parameters, CLUE only summarizes each reasoning trace by an hidden state delta and classifies correctness via nearest-centroid distance to ``success'' and ``failure'' clusters formed from past experience. The simplicity of this method highlights the strength of the underlying signal. Empirically, CLUE consistently outperforms LLM-as-a-judge baselines and matches or exceeds modern confidence-based methods in reranking candidates, improving both top-1 and majority-vote accuracy across AIME 24/25 and GPQA. As a highlight, on AIME 24 with a 1.5B model, CLUE boosts accuracy from 56.7% (majority@64) to 70.0% (top-maj@16).

Industrial-scale user representation learning requires balancing robust universality with acute task-sensitivity. However, existing paradigms primarily yield static, task-agnostic embeddings that struggle to reconcile the divergent requirements of downstream scenarios within unified vector spaces. Furthermore, heterogeneous multi-source data introduces inherent noise and modality conflicts, degrading representation. We propose Query-as-Anchor, a framework shifting user modeling from static encoding to dynamic, query-aware synthesis. To empower Large Language Models (LLMs) with deep user understanding, we first construct UserU, an industrial-scale pre-training dataset that aligns multi-modal behavioral sequences with user understanding semantics, and our Q-Anchor Embedding architecture integrates hierarchical coarse-to-fine encoders into dual-tower LLMs via joint contrastive-autoregressive optimization for query-aware user representation. To bridge the gap between general pre-training and specialized business logic, we further introduce Cluster-based Soft Prompt Tuning to enforce discriminative latent structures, effectively aligning model attention with scenario-specific modalities. For deployment, anchoring queries at sequence termini enables KV-cache-accelerated inference with negligible incremental latency. Evaluations on 10 Alipay industrial benchmarks show consistent SOTA performance, strong scalability, and efficient deployment. Large-scale online A/B testing in Alipay's production system across two real-world scenarios further validates its practical effectiveness. Our code is prepared for public release and will be available at: https://github.com/JhCircle/Q-Anchor.

Conventional representation learning algorithms for knowledge graphs (KG) map each entity to a unique embedding vector. Such a shallow lookup results in a linear growth of memory consumption for storing the embedding matrix and incurs high computational costs when working with real-world KGs. Drawing parallels with subword tokenization commonly used in NLP, we explore the landscape of more parameter-efficient node embedding strategies with possibly sublinear memory requirements. To this end, we propose NodePiece, an anchor-based approach to learn a fixed-size entity vocabulary. In NodePiece, a vocabulary of subword/sub-entity units is constructed from anchor nodes in a graph with known relation types. Given such a fixed-size vocabulary, it is possible to bootstrap an encoding and embedding for any entity, including those unseen during training. Experiments show that NodePiece performs competitively in node classification, link prediction, and relation prediction tasks while retaining less than 10% of explicit nodes in a graph as anchors and often having 10x fewer parameters. To this end, we show that a NodePiece-enabled model outperforms existing shallow models on a large OGB WikiKG 2 graph having 70x fewer parameters.

Model merging is an efficient post-training strategy for integrating knowledge from multiple finetuned checkpoints of a shared foundation model. Existing methods operate in the parameter space, combining task vectors to mitigate conflicts, but remain constrained by parameter inconsistencies. We propose Functional Dual Anchors (FDAs), a framework that instead models the input-representation space. FDAs are synthetic inputs whose induced gradients align with task vectors, capturing task-specific functional shifts relative to the pretrained model. This perspective bridges joint multi-task training and post-hoc merging, offering both robustness and flexibility. We further introduce a principled initialization scheme and show that FDAs are complementary to parameter-space model merging. Comprehensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of FDAs in model merging.

Large language models (LLMs) must balance diversity and creativity against logical coherence in open-ended generation. Existing truncation-based samplers are effective but largely heuristic, relying mainly on probability mass and entropy while ignoring semantic geometry of the token space. We present Top-W, a geometry-aware truncation rule that uses Wasserstein distance-defined over token-embedding geometry-to keep the cropped distribution close to the original, while explicitly balancing retained probability mass against the entropy of the kept set. Our theory yields a simple closed-form structure for the fixed-potential subset update: depending on the mass-entropy trade-off, the optimal crop either collapses to a single token or takes the form of a one-dimensional prefix that can be found efficiently with a linear scan. We implement Top-W using efficient geometry-based potentials (nearest-set or k-NN) and pair it with an alternating decoding routine that keeps the standard truncation-and-sampling interface unchanged. Extensive experiments on four benchmarks (GSM8K, GPQA, AlpacaEval, and MT-Bench) across three instruction-tuned models show that Top-W consistently outperforms prior state-of-the-art decoding approaches achieving up to 33.7% improvement. Moreover, we find that Top-W not only improves accuracy-focused performance, but also boosts creativity under judge-based open-ended evaluation.

Accurate confidence estimation is essential for trustworthy large language models (LLMs) systems, as it empowers the user to determine when to trust outputs and enables reliable deployment in safety-critical applications. Current confidence estimation methods for LLMs neglect the relevance between responses and contextual information, a crucial factor in output quality evaluation, particularly in scenarios where background knowledge is provided. To bridge this gap, we propose CRUX (Context-aware entropy Reduction and Unified consistency eXamination), the first framework that integrates context faithfulness and consistency for confidence estimation via two novel metrics. First, contextual entropy reduction represents data uncertainty with the information gain through contrastive sampling with and without context. Second, unified consistency examination captures potential model uncertainty through the global consistency of the generated answers with and without context. Experiments across three benchmark datasets (CoQA, SQuAD, QuAC) and two domain-specific datasets (BioASQ, EduQG) demonstrate CRUX's effectiveness, achieving the highest AUROC than existing baselines.

Top-k decoding is a widely used method for sampling from LLMs: at each token, only the largest k next-token-probabilities are kept, and the next token is sampled after re-normalizing them to sum to unity. Top-k and other sampling methods are motivated by the intuition that true next-token distributions are sparse, and the noisy LLM probabilities need to be truncated. However, to our knowledge, a precise theoretical motivation for the use of top-k decoding is missing. In this work, we develop a theoretical framework that both explains and generalizes top-k decoding. We view decoding at a fixed token as the recovery of a sparse probability distribution. We consider Bregman decoders obtained by minimizing a separable Bregman divergence (for both the primal and dual cases) with a sparsity-inducing ell_0 regularization. Despite the combinatorial nature of the objective, we show how to optimize it efficiently for a large class of divergences. We show that the optimal decoding strategies are greedy, and further that the loss function is discretely convex in k, so that binary search provably and efficiently finds the optimal k. We show that top-k decoding arises as a special case for the KL divergence, and identify new decoding strategies that have distinct behaviors (e.g., non-linearly up-weighting larger probabilities after re-normalization).

This paper presents a novel technique for accelerating inference in large, pre-trained language models (LLMs) by introducing early exits during inference. The computational demands of these models, used across a wide range of applications, can be substantial. By capitalizing on the inherent variability in token complexity, our approach enables selective acceleration of the inference process. Specifically, we propose the integration of early exit ''heads'' atop existing transformer layers, which facilitate conditional terminations based on a confidence metric. These heads are trained in a self-supervised manner using the model's own predictions as training data, thereby eliminating the need for additional annotated data. The confidence metric, established using a calibration set, ensures a desired level of accuracy while enabling early termination when confidence exceeds a predetermined threshold. Notably, our method preserves the original accuracy and reduces computational time on certain tasks, leveraging the existing knowledge of pre-trained LLMs without requiring extensive retraining. This lightweight, modular modification has the potential to greatly enhance the practical usability of LLMs, particularly in applications like real-time language processing in resource-constrained environments.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated impressive performance across various tasks, with different models excelling in distinct domains and specific abilities. Effectively combining the predictions of multiple LLMs is crucial for enhancing system robustness and performance. However, existing ensemble methods often rely on simple techniques like voting or logits ensembling, which overlook the varying confidence and reliability of models in different contexts. In this work, we propose LENS (Learning ENsemble confidence from Neural States), a novel approach that learns to estimate model confidence by analyzing internal representations. For each LLM, we train a lightweight linear confidence predictor that leverages layer-wise hidden states and normalized probabilities as inputs. This allows for more nuanced weighting of model predictions based on their context-dependent reliability. Our method does not require modifying the model parameters and requires negligible additional computation. Experimental results on multiple-choice and boolean question-answering tasks demonstrate that LENS outperforms traditional ensemble methods by a substantial margin. Our findings suggest that internal representations provide valuable signals for determining model confidence and can be effectively leveraged for ensemble learning.

Retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) has emerged as a popular solution to mitigate the hallucination issues of large language models. However, existing studies on RAG seldom address the issue of predictive uncertainty, i.e., how likely it is that a RAG model's prediction is incorrect, resulting in uncontrollable risks in real-world applications. In this work, we emphasize the importance of risk control, ensuring that RAG models proactively refuse to answer questions with low confidence. Our research identifies two critical latent factors affecting RAG's confidence in its predictions: the quality of the retrieved results and the manner in which these results are utilized. To guide RAG models in assessing their own confidence based on these two latent factors, we develop a counterfactual prompting framework that induces the models to alter these factors and analyzes the effect on their answers. We also introduce a benchmarking procedure to collect answers with the option to abstain, facilitating a series of experiments. For evaluation, we introduce several risk-related metrics and the experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach.

FOLD-RM is an explainable machine learning classification algorithm that uses training data to create a set of classification rules. In this paper we introduce CON-FOLD which extends FOLD-RM in several ways. CON-FOLD assigns probability-based confidence scores to rules learned for a classification task. This allows users to know how confident they should be in a prediction made by the model. We present a confidence-based pruning algorithm that uses the unique structure of FOLD-RM rules to efficiently prune rules and prevent overfitting. Furthermore, CON-FOLD enables the user to provide pre-existing knowledge in the form of logic program rules that are either (fixed) background knowledge or (modifiable) initial rule candidates. The paper describes our method in detail and reports on practical experiments. We demonstrate the performance of the algorithm on benchmark datasets from the UCI Machine Learning Repository. For that, we introduce a new metric, Inverse Brier Score, to evaluate the accuracy of the produced confidence scores. Finally we apply this extension to a real world example that requires explainability: marking of student responses to a short answer question from the Australian Physics Olympiad.

In any ranking system, the retrieval model outputs a single score for a document based on its belief on how relevant it is to a given search query. While retrieval models have continued to improve with the introduction of increasingly complex architectures, few works have investigated a retrieval model's belief in the score beyond the scope of a single value. We argue that capturing the model's uncertainty with respect to its own scoring of a document is a critical aspect of retrieval that allows for greater use of current models across new document distributions, collections, or even improving effectiveness for down-stream tasks. In this paper, we address this problem via an efficient Bayesian framework for retrieval models which captures the model's belief in the relevance score through a stochastic process while adding only negligible computational overhead. We evaluate this belief via a ranking based calibration metric showing that our approximate Bayesian framework significantly improves a retrieval model's ranking effectiveness through a risk aware reranking as well as its confidence calibration. Lastly, we demonstrate that this additional uncertainty information is actionable and reliable on down-stream tasks represented via cutoff prediction.

Vector databases typically rely on approximate nearest neighbor (ANN) search to retrieve the top-k closest vectors to a query in embedding space. While effective, this approach often yields semantically redundant results, missing the diversity and contextual richness required by applications such as retrieval-augmented generation (RAG), multi-hop QA, and memory-augmented agents. We introduce a new retrieval paradigm: semantic compression, which aims to select a compact, representative set of vectors that captures the broader semantic structure around a query. We formalize this objective using principles from submodular optimization and information geometry, and show that it generalizes traditional top-k retrieval by prioritizing coverage and diversity. To operationalize this idea, we propose graph-augmented vector retrieval, which overlays semantic graphs (e.g., kNN or knowledge-based links) atop vector spaces to enable multi-hop, context-aware search. We theoretically analyze the limitations of proximity-based retrieval under high-dimensional concentration and highlight how graph structures can improve semantic coverage. Our work outlines a foundation for meaning-centric vector search systems, emphasizing hybrid indexing, diversity-aware querying, and structured semantic retrieval. We make our implementation publicly available to foster future research in this area.

Learning decompositions of expensive-to-evaluate black-box functions promises to scale Bayesian optimisation (BO) to high-dimensional problems. However, the success of these techniques depends on finding proper decompositions that accurately represent the black-box. While previous works learn those decompositions based on data, we investigate data-independent decomposition sampling rules in this paper. We find that data-driven learners of decompositions can be easily misled towards local decompositions that do not hold globally across the search space. Then, we formally show that a random tree-based decomposition sampler exhibits favourable theoretical guarantees that effectively trade off maximal information gain and functional mismatch between the actual black-box and its surrogate as provided by the decomposition. Those results motivate the development of the random decomposition upper-confidence bound algorithm (RDUCB) that is straightforward to implement - (almost) plug-and-play - and, surprisingly, yields significant empirical gains compared to the previous state-of-the-art on a comprehensive set of benchmarks. We also confirm the plug-and-play nature of our modelling component by integrating our method with HEBO, showing improved practical gains in the highest dimensional tasks from Bayesmark.

Unsupervised learning methods based on contrastive learning have drawn increasing attention and achieved promising results. Most of them aim to learn representations invariant to instance-level variations, which are provided by different views of the same instance. In this paper, we propose Invariance Propagation to focus on learning representations invariant to category-level variations, which are provided by different instances from the same category. Our method recursively discovers semantically consistent samples residing in the same high-density regions in representation space. We demonstrate a hard sampling strategy to concentrate on maximizing the agreement between the anchor sample and its hard positive samples, which provide more intra-class variations to help capture more abstract invariance. As a result, with a ResNet-50 as the backbone, our method achieves 71.3% top-1 accuracy on ImageNet linear classification and 78.2% top-5 accuracy fine-tuning on only 1% labels, surpassing previous results. We also achieve state-of-the-art performance on other downstream tasks, including linear classification on Places205 and Pascal VOC, and transfer learning on small scale datasets.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used in high-stakes settings, where overconfident responses can mislead users. Reliable confidence estimation has been shown to enhance trust and task accuracy. Yet existing methods face practical barriers: logits are often hidden, multi-sampling is computationally expensive, and verbalized numerical uncertainty (e.g., giving a 0-100 score) deviates from natural communication. We revisit linguistic confidence (LC), where models express uncertainty through hedging language (e.g., probably, might), offering a lightweight and human-centered alternative. To advance this direction, we (1) release the first diverse, large-scale dataset of hedging expressions with human-annotated confidence scores, and (2) propose a lightweight mapper that converts hedges into confidence scores at near-zero cost. Building on these resources, we (3) conduct the first systematic study of LC across modern LLMs and QA benchmarks, revealing that while most LLMs underperform in expressing reliable LC, carefully designed prompting achieves competitive calibration and discriminability. Finally, we (4) introduce a fine-tuning framework that further improves LC reliability. Taken together, our work positions linguistic confidence as a scalable, efficient, and human-aligned approach to LLM uncertainty estimation, and calls for deeper exploration of this promising yet underexplored direction.

Existing frameworks for evaluating and comparing generative models consider an offline setting, where the evaluator has access to large batches of data produced by the models. However, in practical scenarios, the goal is often to identify and select the best model using the fewest possible generated samples to minimize the costs of querying data from the sub-optimal models. In this work, we propose an online evaluation and selection framework to find the generative model that maximizes a standard assessment score among a group of available models. We view the task as a multi-armed bandit (MAB) and propose upper confidence bound (UCB) bandit algorithms to identify the model producing data with the best evaluation score that quantifies the quality and diversity of generated data. Specifically, we develop the MAB-based selection of generative models considering the Fr\'echet Distance (FD) and Inception Score (IS) metrics, resulting in the FD-UCB and IS-UCB algorithms. We prove regret bounds for these algorithms and present numerical results on standard image datasets. Our empirical results suggest the efficacy of MAB approaches for the sample-efficient evaluation and selection of deep generative models. The project code is available at https://github.com/yannxiaoyanhu/dgm-online-eval.

Image-text matching remains a challenging task due to heterogeneous semantic diversity across modalities and insufficient distance separability within triplets. Different from previous approaches focusing on enhancing multi-modal representations or exploiting cross-modal correspondence for more accurate retrieval, in this paper we aim to leverage the knowledge transfer between peer branches in a boosting manner to seek a more powerful matching model. Specifically, we propose a brand-new Deep Boosting Learning (DBL) algorithm, where an anchor branch is first trained to provide insights into the data properties, with a target branch gaining more advanced knowledge to develop optimal features and distance metrics. Concretely, an anchor branch initially learns the absolute or relative distance between positive and negative pairs, providing a foundational understanding of the particular network and data distribution. Building upon this knowledge, a target branch is concurrently tasked with more adaptive margin constraints to further enlarge the relative distance between matched and unmatched samples. Extensive experiments validate that our DBL can achieve impressive and consistent improvements based on various recent state-of-the-art models in the image-text matching field, and outperform related popular cooperative strategies, e.g., Conventional Distillation, Mutual Learning, and Contrastive Learning. Beyond the above, we confirm that DBL can be seamlessly integrated into their training scenarios and achieve superior performance under the same computational costs, demonstrating the flexibility and broad applicability of our proposed method. Our code is publicly available at: https://github.com/Paranioar/DBL.

Instance embeddings are an efficient and versatile image representation that facilitates applications like recognition, verification, retrieval, and clustering. Many metric learning methods represent the input as a single point in the embedding space. Often the distance between points is used as a proxy for match confidence. However, this can fail to represent uncertainty arising when the input is ambiguous, e.g., due to occlusion or blurriness. This work addresses this issue and explicitly models the uncertainty by hedging the location of each input in the embedding space. We introduce the hedged instance embedding (HIB) in which embeddings are modeled as random variables and the model is trained under the variational information bottleneck principle. Empirical results on our new N-digit MNIST dataset show that our method leads to the desired behavior of hedging its bets across the embedding space upon encountering ambiguous inputs. This results in improved performance for image matching and classification tasks, more structure in the learned embedding space, and an ability to compute a per-exemplar uncertainty measure that is correlated with downstream performance.

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated impressive performance on several tasks and are increasingly deployed in real-world applications. However, especially in high-stakes settings, it becomes vital to know when the output of an LLM may be unreliable. Depending on whether an answer is trustworthy, a system can then choose to route the question to another expert, or otherwise fall back on a safe default behavior. In this work, we study the extent to which LLMs can reliably indicate confidence in their answers, and how this notion of confidence can translate into downstream accuracy gains. We propose Self-REF, a lightweight training strategy to teach LLMs to express confidence in whether their answers are correct in a reliable manner. Self-REF introduces confidence tokens into the LLM, from which a confidence score can be extracted. Compared to conventional approaches such as verbalizing confidence and examining token probabilities, we demonstrate empirically that confidence tokens show significant improvements in downstream routing and rejection learning tasks.

Large language model retrievers improve performance on complex queries, but their practical value depends on efficiency, robustness, and reliable confidence signals in addition to accuracy. We reproduce a reasoning-intensive retrieval benchmark (BRIGHT) across 12 tasks and 14 retrievers, and extend evaluation with cold-start indexing cost, query latency distributions and throughput, corpus scaling, robustness to controlled query perturbations, and confidence use (AUROC) for predicting query success. We also quantify reasoning overhead by comparing standard queries to five provided reasoning-augmented variants, measuring accuracy gains relative to added latency. We find that some reasoning-specialized retrievers achieve strong effectiveness while remaining competitive in throughput, whereas several large LLM-based bi-encoders incur substantial latency for modest gains. Reasoning augmentation incurs minimal latency for sub-1B encoders but exhibits diminishing returns for top retrievers and may reduce performance on formal math/code domains. Confidence calibration is consistently weak across model families, indicating that raw retrieval scores are unreliable for downstream routing without additional calibration. We release all code and artifacts for reproducibility.

Large Language Models deployed as question answering tools require robust calibration to avoid overconfidence. We systematically evaluate how reasoning capabilities and budget affect confidence assessment accuracy, using the ClimateX dataset (Lacombe et al., 2023) and expanding it to human and planetary health. Our key finding challenges the "test-time scaling" paradigm: while recent reasoning LLMs achieve 48.7% accuracy in assessing expert confidence, increasing reasoning budgets consistently impairs rather than improves calibration. Extended reasoning leads to systematic overconfidence that worsens with longer thinking budgets, producing diminishing and negative returns beyond modest computational investments. Conversely, search-augmented generation dramatically outperforms pure reasoning, achieving 89.3% accuracy by retrieving relevant evidence. Our results suggest that information access, rather than reasoning depth or inference budget, may be the critical bottleneck for improved confidence calibration of knowledge-intensive tasks.

Empowering large language models to accurately express confidence in their answers is essential for trustworthy decision-making. Previous confidence elicitation methods, which primarily rely on white-box access to internal model information or model fine-tuning, have become less suitable for LLMs, especially closed-source commercial APIs. This leads to a growing need to explore the untapped area of black-box approaches for LLM uncertainty estimation. To better break down the problem, we define a systematic framework with three components: prompting strategies for eliciting verbalized confidence, sampling methods for generating multiple responses, and aggregation techniques for computing consistency. We then benchmark these methods on two key tasks-confidence calibration and failure prediction-across five types of datasets (e.g., commonsense and arithmetic reasoning) and five widely-used LLMs including GPT-4 and LLaMA 2 Chat. Our analysis uncovers several key insights: 1) LLMs, when verbalizing their confidence, tend to be overconfident, potentially imitating human patterns of expressing confidence. 2) As model capability scales up, both calibration and failure prediction performance improve. 3) Employing our proposed strategies, such as human-inspired prompts, consistency among multiple responses, and better aggregation strategies can help mitigate this overconfidence from various perspectives. 4) Comparisons with white-box methods indicate that while white-box methods perform better, the gap is narrow, e.g., 0.522 to 0.605 in AUROC. Despite these advancements, none of these techniques consistently outperform others, and all investigated methods struggle in challenging tasks, such as those requiring professional knowledge, indicating significant scope for improvement. We believe this study can serve as a strong baseline and provide insights for eliciting confidence in black-box LLMs.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used in applications requiring factual accuracy, yet their outputs often contain hallucinated responses. While fact-checking can mitigate these errors, existing methods typically retrieve external evidence indiscriminately, overlooking the model's internal knowledge and potentially introducing irrelevant noise. Moreover, current systems lack targeted mechanisms to resolve specific uncertainties in the model's reasoning. Inspired by how humans fact-check, we argue that LLMs should adaptively decide whether to rely on internal knowledge or initiate retrieval based on their confidence in a given claim. We introduce Probabilistic Certainty and Consistency (PCC), a framework that estimates factual confidence by jointly modeling an LLM's probabilistic certainty and reasoning consistency. These confidence signals enable an adaptive verification strategy: the model answers directly when confident, triggers targeted retrieval when uncertain or inconsistent, and escalates to deep search when ambiguity is high. Our confidence-guided routing mechanism ensures that retrieval is invoked only when necessary, improving both efficiency and reliability. Extensive experiments across three challenging benchmarks show that PCC achieves better uncertainty quantification than verbalized confidence and consistently outperforms strong LLM-based fact-checking baselines. Furthermore, we demonstrate that PCC generalizes well across various LLMs.

Real-world machine learning deployments are characterized by mismatches between the source (training) and target (test) distributions that may cause performance drops. In this work, we investigate methods for predicting the target domain accuracy using only labeled source data and unlabeled target data. We propose Average Thresholded Confidence (ATC), a practical method that learns a threshold on the model's confidence, predicting accuracy as the fraction of unlabeled examples for which model confidence exceeds that threshold. ATC outperforms previous methods across several model architectures, types of distribution shifts (e.g., due to synthetic corruptions, dataset reproduction, or novel subpopulations), and datasets (Wilds, ImageNet, Breeds, CIFAR, and MNIST). In our experiments, ATC estimates target performance 2-4times more accurately than prior methods. We also explore the theoretical foundations of the problem, proving that, in general, identifying the accuracy is just as hard as identifying the optimal predictor and thus, the efficacy of any method rests upon (perhaps unstated) assumptions on the nature of the shift. Finally, analyzing our method on some toy distributions, we provide insights concerning when it works. Code is available at https://github.com/saurabhgarg1996/ATC_code/.

To deduce new facts on a knowledge graph (KG), a link predictor learns from the graph structure and collects local evidence to find the answer to a given query. However, existing methods suffer from a severe scalability problem due to the utilization of the whole KG for prediction, which hinders their promise on large scale KGs and cannot be directly addressed by vanilla sampling methods. In this work, we propose the one-shot-subgraph link prediction to achieve efficient and adaptive prediction. The design principle is that, instead of directly acting on the whole KG, the prediction procedure is decoupled into two steps, i.e., (i) extracting only one subgraph according to the query and (ii) predicting on this single, query dependent subgraph. We reveal that the non-parametric and computation-efficient heuristics Personalized PageRank (PPR) can effectively identify the potential answers and supporting evidence. With efficient subgraph-based prediction, we further introduce the automated searching of the optimal configurations in both data and model spaces. Empirically, we achieve promoted efficiency and leading performances on five large-scale benchmarks. The code is publicly available at: https://github.com/tmlr-group/one-shot-subgraph.

Tool-using agents that act in the world need to be both useful and safe. Well-calibrated model confidences can be used to weigh the risk versus reward of potential actions, but prior work shows that many models are poorly calibrated. Inspired by interpretability literature exploring the internals of models, we propose a novel class of model-internal confidence estimators (MICE) to better assess confidence when calling tools. MICE first decodes from each intermediate layer of the language model using logitLens and then computes similarity scores between each layer's generation and the final output. These features are fed into a learned probabilistic classifier to assess confidence in the decoded output. On the simulated trial and error (STE) tool-calling dataset using Llama3 models, we find that MICE beats or matches the baselines on smoothed expected calibration error. Using MICE confidences to determine whether to call a tool significantly improves over strong baselines on a new metric, expected tool-calling utility. Further experiments show that MICE is sample-efficient, can generalize zero-shot to unseen APIs, and results in higher tool-calling utility in scenarios with varying risk levels. Our code is open source, available at https://github.com/microsoft/mice_for_cats.

We present Natural Gradient Boosting (NGBoost), an algorithm for generic probabilistic prediction via gradient boosting. Typical regression models return a point estimate, conditional on covariates, but probabilistic regression models output a full probability distribution over the outcome space, conditional on the covariates. This allows for predictive uncertainty estimation -- crucial in applications like healthcare and weather forecasting. NGBoost generalizes gradient boosting to probabilistic regression by treating the parameters of the conditional distribution as targets for a multiparameter boosting algorithm. Furthermore, we show how the Natural Gradient is required to correct the training dynamics of our multiparameter boosting approach. NGBoost can be used with any base learner, any family of distributions with continuous parameters, and any scoring rule. NGBoost matches or exceeds the performance of existing methods for probabilistic prediction while offering additional benefits in flexibility, scalability, and usability. An open-source implementation is available at github.com/stanfordmlgroup/ngboost.

Knowledge Graph Retrieval-Augmented Generation (KG-RAG) extends the RAG paradigm by incorporating structured knowledge from knowledge graphs, enabling Large Language Models (LLMs) to perform more precise and explainable reasoning. While KG-RAG improves factual accuracy in complex tasks, existing KG-RAG models are often severely overconfident, producing high-confidence predictions even when retrieved sub-graphs are incomplete or unreliable, which raises concerns for deployment in high-stakes domains. To address this issue, we propose Ca2KG, a Causality-aware Calibration framework for KG-RAG. Ca2KG integrates counterfactual prompting, which exposes retrieval-dependent uncertainties in knowledge quality and reasoning reliability, with a panel-based re-scoring mechanism that stabilises predictions across interventions. Extensive experiments on two complex QA datasets demonstrate that Ca2KG consistently improves calibration while maintaining or even enhancing predictive accuracy.

The rise of Large Language Models (LLMs) like ChatGPT has advanced natural language processing, yet concerns about cognitive biases are growing. In this paper, we investigate the anchoring effect, a cognitive bias where the mind relies heavily on the first information as anchors to make affected judgments. We explore whether LLMs are affected by anchoring, the underlying mechanisms, and potential mitigation strategies. To facilitate studies at scale on the anchoring effect, we introduce a new dataset, SynAnchors. Combining refined evaluation metrics, we benchmark current widely used LLMs. Our findings show that LLMs' anchoring bias exists commonly with shallow-layer acting and is not eliminated by conventional strategies, while reasoning can offer some mitigation. This recontextualization via cognitive psychology urges that LLM evaluations focus not on standard benchmarks or over-optimized robustness tests, but on cognitive-bias-aware trustworthy evaluation.

Language model (LM) decoding is based on the next-token prediction (NTP) probability distribution. For neural LMs (e.g., Transformer-based), NTP distribution is essentially a softmax-regularized dot product between an encoded input context (query) and fixed vocabulary representations (keys). In this paper, we study the effect of the key distribution on the NTP distribution, with a focus on whether the similarity between keys will trigger spurious correlations in NTP. Through knowledge-probing tasks, we show that in the NTP distribution, the few top-ranked tokens are typically accurate. However, the middle-ranked prediction is highly biased towards the tokens that are distributionally (not necessarily semantically) similar to these top ones. For instance, if "P" is predicted as the top-1 token, "A"-"Z" will all be ranked high in NTP, no matter whether they can lead to correct decoding results. This hurts the sampling diversity and makes the sampling of correct, long-tail results hopeless and noisy. We attempt to alleviate this issue via a novel in-context method that iteratively pushes the query representation away from explored regions. Specifically, we include the explored decoding results in the context and prompt the LM to generate something else, which encourages the LM to produce a query representation that has small dot products with explored keys. Experiments on knowledge-probing tasks show that our method leads to efficient navigation away from explored keys to correct new keys. We further extend our method to open-ended and chain-of-thought (for reasoning) generation. Experiment results show that ICN contributes to better generation diversity and improved self-consistency voting performance. Finally, we discuss potential training issues caused by the fixed key space together with the challenges and possible ways to address them in future research.

Learning exists in the context of data, yet notions of confidence typically focus on model predictions, not label quality. Confident learning (CL) is an alternative approach which focuses instead on label quality by characterizing and identifying label errors in datasets, based on the principles of pruning noisy data, counting with probabilistic thresholds to estimate noise, and ranking examples to train with confidence. Whereas numerous studies have developed these principles independently, here, we combine them, building on the assumption of a class-conditional noise process to directly estimate the joint distribution between noisy (given) labels and uncorrupted (unknown) labels. This results in a generalized CL which is provably consistent and experimentally performant. We present sufficient conditions where CL exactly finds label errors, and show CL performance exceeding seven recent competitive approaches for learning with noisy labels on the CIFAR dataset. Uniquely, the CL framework is not coupled to a specific data modality or model (e.g., we use CL to find several label errors in the presumed error-free MNIST dataset and improve sentiment classification on text data in Amazon Reviews). We also employ CL on ImageNet to quantify ontological class overlap (e.g., estimating 645 "missile" images are mislabeled as their parent class "projectile"), and moderately increase model accuracy (e.g., for ResNet) by cleaning data prior to training. These results are replicable using the open-source cleanlab release.

Large Reasoning Models have demonstrated remarkable performance with the advancement of test-time scaling techniques, which enhances prediction accuracy by generating multiple candidate responses and selecting the most reliable answer. While prior work has analyzed that internal model signals like confidence scores can partly indicate response correctness and exhibit a distributional correlation with accuracy, such distributional information has not been fully utilized to guide answer selection. Motivated by this, we propose DistriVoting, which incorporates distributional priors as another signal alongside confidence during voting. Specifically, our method (1) first decomposes the mixed confidence distribution into positive and negative components using Gaussian Mixture Models, (2) then applies a reject filter based on positive/negative samples from them to mitigate overlap between the two distributions. Besides, to further alleviate the overlap from the perspective of distribution itself, we propose SelfStepConf, which uses step-level confidence to dynamically adjust inference process, increasing the separation between the two distributions to improve the reliability of confidences in voting. Experiments across 16 models and 5 benchmarks demonstrate that our method significantly outperforms state-of-the-art approaches.

Scaling educational assessment with large language models requires not just accuracy, but the ability to recognize when predictions are trustworthy. Instruction-tuned models tend to be overconfident, and their reliability deteriorates as curricula evolve, making fully autonomous deployment unsafe in high-stakes settings. We introduce CHiL(L)Grader, the first automated grading framework that incorporates calibrated confidence estimation into a human-in-the-loop workflow. Using post-hoc temperature scaling, confidence-based selective prediction, and continual learning, CHiL(L)Grader automates only high-confidence predictions while routing uncertain cases to human graders, and adapts to evolving rubrics and unseen questions. Across three short-answer grading datasets, CHiL(L)Grader automatically scores 35-65% of responses at expert-level quality (QWK >= 0.80). A QWK gap of 0.347 between accepted and rejected predictions confirms the effectiveness of the confidence-based routing. Each correction cycle strengthens the model's grading capability as it learns from teacher feedback. These results show that uncertainty quantification is key for reliable AI-assisted grading.

Language models (LMs) should provide reliable confidence estimates to help users detect mistakes in their outputs and defer to human experts when necessary. Asking a language model to assess its confidence ("Score your confidence from 0-1.") is a natural way of evaluating its uncertainty. However, models struggle to provide absolute assessments of confidence (i.e. judging confidence in answering a question independent of other questions) and the coarse-grained scores they produce are not useful for evaluating the correctness of their answers. We propose relative confidence estimation, where we match up questions against each other and ask the model to make relative judgments of confidence ("Which question are you more confident in answering correctly?"). Treating each question as a "player" in a series of matchups against other questions and the model's preferences as match outcomes, we can use rank aggregation methods like Elo rating and Bradley-Terry to translate the model's confidence preferences into confidence scores. We evaluate relative confidence estimation against absolute confidence estimation and self-consistency confidence methods on five state-of-the-art LMs -- GPT-4, GPT-4o, Gemini 1.5 Pro, Claude 3.5 Sonnet, and Llama 3.1 405B -- across 14 challenging STEM, social science, and commonsense reasoning question answering tasks. Our results demonstrate that relative confidence estimation consistently provides more reliable confidence scores than absolute confidence estimation, with average gains of 3.5% in selective classification AUC over direct absolute confidence estimation methods and 1.7% over self-consistency approaches across all models and datasets.

Retrieval Augmented Generation (RAG) complements the knowledge of Large Language Models (LLMs) by leveraging external information to enhance response accuracy for queries. This approach is widely applied in several fields by taking its advantage of injecting the most up-to-date information, and researchers are focusing on understanding and improving this aspect to unlock the full potential of RAG in such high-stakes applications. However, despite the potential of RAG to address these needs, the mechanisms behind the confidence levels of its outputs remain underexplored, although the confidence of information is very critical in some domains, such as finance, healthcare, and medicine. Our study focuses the impact of RAG on confidence within the medical domain under various configurations and models. We evaluate confidence by treating the model's predicted probability as its output and calculating Expected Calibration Error (ECE) and Adaptive Calibration Error (ACE) scores based on the probabilities and accuracy. In addition, we analyze whether the order of retrieved documents within prompts calibrates the confidence. Our findings reveal large variation in confidence and accuracy depending on the model, settings, and the format of input prompts. These results underscore the necessity of optimizing configurations based on the specific model and conditions.

Assessing the fidelity and diversity of the generative model is a difficult but important issue for technological advancement. So, recent papers have introduced k-Nearest Neighbor (kNN) based precision-recall metrics to break down the statistical distance into fidelity and diversity. While they provide an intuitive method, we thoroughly analyze these metrics and identify oversimplified assumptions and undesirable properties of kNN that result in unreliable evaluation, such as susceptibility to outliers and insensitivity to distributional changes. Thus, we propose novel metrics, P-precision and P-recall (PP\&PR), based on a probabilistic approach that address the problems. Through extensive investigations on toy experiments and state-of-the-art generative models, we show that our PP\&PR provide more reliable estimates for comparing fidelity and diversity than the existing metrics. The codes are available at https://github.com/kdst-team/Probablistic_precision_recall.

Ensuring reliable confidence scores from deep neural networks is of paramount significance in critical decision-making systems, particularly in real-world domains such as healthcare. Recent literature on calibrating deep segmentation networks has resulted in substantial progress. Nevertheless, these approaches are strongly inspired by the advancements in classification tasks, and thus their uncertainty is usually modeled by leveraging the information of individual pixels, disregarding the local structure of the object of interest. Indeed, only the recent Spatially Varying Label Smoothing (SVLS) approach considers pixel spatial relationships across classes, by softening the pixel label assignments with a discrete spatial Gaussian kernel. In this work, we first present a constrained optimization perspective of SVLS and demonstrate that it enforces an implicit constraint on soft class proportions of surrounding pixels. Furthermore, our analysis shows that SVLS lacks a mechanism to balance the contribution of the constraint with the primary objective, potentially hindering the optimization process. Based on these observations, we propose NACL (Neighbor Aware CaLibration), a principled and simple solution based on equality constraints on the logit values, which enables to control explicitly both the enforced constraint and the weight of the penalty, offering more flexibility. Comprehensive experiments on a wide variety of well-known segmentation benchmarks demonstrate the superior calibration performance of the proposed approach, without affecting its discriminative power. Furthermore, ablation studies empirically show the model agnostic nature of our approach, which can be used to train a wide span of deep segmentation networks.

Recent work in open-domain question answering (ODQA) has shown that adversarial poisoning of the input contexts can cause large drops in accuracy for production systems. However, little to no work has proposed methods to defend against these attacks. To do so, we introduce a new method that uses query augmentation to search for a diverse set of retrieved passages that could answer the original question. We integrate these new passages into the model through the design of a novel confidence method, comparing the predicted answer to its appearance in the retrieved contexts (what we call Confidence from Answer Redundancy, e.g. CAR). Together these methods allow for a simple but effective way to defend against poisoning attacks and provide gains of 5-20% exact match across varying levels of data poisoning.

Autonomous Graphical User Interface (GUI) agents rely on accurate GUI grounding, which maps language instructions to on-screen coordinates, to execute user commands. However, current models, whether trained via supervised fine-tuning (SFT) or reinforcement fine-tuning (RFT), lack self-awareness of their capability boundaries, leading to overconfidence and unreliable predictions. We first systematically evaluate probabilistic and verbalized confidence in general and GUI-specific models, revealing a misalignment between confidence and actual accuracy, which is particularly critical in dynamic GUI automation tasks, where single errors can cause task failure. To address this, we propose HyperClick, a novel framework that enhances reliable GUI grounding through uncertainty calibration. HyperClick introduces a dual reward mechanism, combining a binary reward for correct actions with a truncated Gaussian-based spatial confidence modeling, calibrated using the Brier score. This approach jointly optimizes grounding accuracy and confidence reliability, fostering introspective self-criticism. Extensive experiments on seven challenge benchmarks show that HyperClick achieves state-of-the-art performance while providing well-calibrated confidence. By enabling explicit confidence calibration and introspective self-criticism, HyperClick reduces overconfidence and supports more reliable GUI automation.

In-context learning is the paradigm that adapts large language models to downstream tasks by providing a few examples. Few-shot selection -- selecting appropriate examples for each test instance separately -- is important for in-context learning. In this paper, we propose Skill-KNN, a skill-based few-shot selection method for in-context learning. The key advantages of Skill-KNN include: (1) it addresses the problem that existing methods based on pre-trained embeddings can be easily biased by surface natural language features that are not important for the target task; (2) it does not require training or fine-tuning of any models, making it suitable for frequently expanding or changing example banks. The key insight is to optimize the inputs fed into the embedding model, rather than tuning the model itself. Technically, Skill-KNN generates the skill-based descriptions for each test case and candidate example by utilizing a pre-processing few-shot prompting, thus eliminating unimportant surface features. Experimental results across five cross-domain semantic parsing datasets and six backbone models show that Skill-KNN significantly outperforms existing methods.

Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) has emerged as a widely adopted approach for enhancing LLMs in scenarios that demand extensive factual knowledge. However, current RAG evaluations concentrate primarily on correctness, which may not fully capture the impact of retrieval on LLM uncertainty and reliability. To bridge this gap, we introduce URAG, a comprehensive benchmark designed to assess the uncertainty of RAG systems across various fields like healthcare, programming, science, math, and general text. By reformulating open-ended generation tasks into multiple-choice question answering, URAG allows for principled uncertainty quantification via conformal prediction. We apply the evaluation pipeline to 8 standard RAG methods, measuring their performance through both accuracy and prediction-set sizes based on LAC and APS metrics. Our analysis shows that (1) accuracy gains often coincide with reduced uncertainty, but this relationship breaks under retrieval noise; (2) simple modular RAG methods tend to offer better accuracy-uncertainty trade-offs than more complex reasoning pipelines; and (3) no single RAG approach is universally reliable across domains. We further show that (4) retrieval depth, parametric knowledge dependence, and exposure to confidence cues can amplify confident errors and hallucinations. Ultimately, URAG establishes a systematic benchmark for analyzing and enhancing the trustworthiness of retrieval-augmented systems. Our code is available on GitHub.

As Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in real-world settings, correctness alone is insufficient. Reliable deployment requires maintaining truthful beliefs under contextual perturbations. Existing evaluations largely rely on point-wise confidence like Self-Consistency, which can mask brittle belief. We show that even facts answered with perfect self-consistency can rapidly collapse under mild contextual interference. To address this gap, we propose Neighbor-Consistency Belief (NCB), a structural measure of belief robustness that evaluates response coherence across a conceptual neighborhood. To validate the efficiency of NCB, we introduce a new cognitive stress-testing protocol that probes outputs stability under contextual interference. Experiments across multiple LLMs show that the performance of high-NCB data is relatively more resistant to interference. Finally, we present Structure-Aware Training (SAT), which optimizes context-invariant belief structure and reduces long-tail knowledge brittleness by approximately 30%. Code will be available at https://github.com/zjunlp/belief.

Model merging aims to combine multiple task-specific expert models into a single model without joint retraining, offering a practical alternative to multi-task learning when data access or computational budget is limited. Existing methods, however, face two key limitations: (1) they overlook the valuable inductive bias of strong anchor models and estimate the merged weights from scratch, and (2) they rely on a shared hyperparameter setting across different modules of the network, lacking a global optimization strategy. This paper introduces Bayesian Model Merging (BMM), a plug-and-play bi-level optimization framework, where the inner level formulates the model merging as an activation-based Bayesian regression under a strong prior induced by an anchor model, yielding an efficient closed-form solution; and the outer level leverages a Bayesian optimization procedure to search module-specific hyperparameters globally based on a small validation set. Furthermore, we reveal a key alignment between activation statistics and task vectors, enabling us to derive a data-free variant of BMM that estimates the Gram matrix for regression without any auxiliary data. Across extensive benchmarks, including up to 20-task merging in vision and 5-task merging in language, BMM consistently outperforms all plug-and-play anchor baselines (e.g., TA, WUDI-Merging, and TSV). In particular, on the ViT-L/14 benchmark for 8-task merging, a single merged model reaches 95.1, closely matching the average performance of eight task-specific experts (95.8).

Evaluating the capability of Large Language Models (LLMs) in following instructions has heavily relied on a powerful LLM as the judge, introducing unresolved biases that deviate the judgments from human judges. In this work, we reevaluate various choices for automatic evaluation on a wide range of instruction-following tasks. We experiment with methods that leverage human-written responses and observe that they enhance the reliability of automatic evaluations across a wide range of tasks, resulting in up to a 3.2% improvement in agreement with human judges. We also discovered that human-written responses offer an orthogonal perspective to model-generated responses in following instructions and should be used as an additional context when comparing model responses. Based on these observations, we develop a new evaluation benchmark, Human Response-Guided Evaluation of Instruction Following (HREF), comprising 4,258 samples across 11 task categories with a composite evaluation setup, employing a composite evaluation setup that selects the most reliable method for each category. In addition to providing reliable evaluation, HREF emphasizes individual task performance and is free from contamination. Finally, we study the impact of key design choices in HREF, including the size of the evaluation set, the judge model, the baseline model, and the prompt template. We host a live leaderboard that evaluates LLMs on the private evaluation set of HREF.

We introduce a simple, yet novel entropy-based framework to drive token efficiency in large language models during reasoning tasks. Our approach uses Shannon entropy from token-level logprobs as a confidence signal to enable early stopping, achieving 25-50% computational savings while maintaining task accuracy. Crucially, we demonstrate that entropy-based confidence calibration represents an emergent property of advanced post-training optimization present in modern reasoning models but notably absent in standard instruction-tuned and pre-trained models (Llama 3.3 70B). We show that the entropy threshold to stop reasoning varies from model to model but can be calculated easily in one shot using only a few examples from existing reasoning datasets. Our results indicate that advanced reasoning models often know that they've gotten a correct answer early on, and that this emergent confidence awareness can be exploited to save tokens and reduce latency. The framework demonstrates consistent performance across reasoning-optimized model families with 25-50% computational cost reduction while preserving accuracy, revealing that confidence mechanisms represent a distinguishing characteristic of modern post-trained reasoning systems versus their predecessors.

Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks (KANs) have gained significant attention as an alternative to traditional multilayer perceptrons, with proponents claiming superior interpretability and performance through learnable univariate activation functions. However, recent systematic evaluations reveal substantial discrepancies between theoretical claims and empirical evidence. This critical assessment examines KANs' actual performance across diverse domains using fair comparison methodologies that control for parameters and computational costs. Our analysis demonstrates that KANs outperform MLPs only in symbolic regression tasks, while consistently underperforming in machine learning, computer vision, and natural language processing benchmarks. The claimed advantages largely stem from B-spline activation functions rather than architectural innovations, and computational overhead (1.36-100x slower) severely limits practical deployment. Furthermore, theoretical claims about breaking the "curse of dimensionality" lack rigorous mathematical foundation. We systematically identify the conditions under which KANs provide value versus traditional approaches, establish evaluation standards for future research, and propose a priority-based roadmap for addressing fundamental limitations. This work provides researchers and practitioners with evidence-based guidance for the rational adoption of KANs while highlighting critical research gaps that must be addressed for broader applicability.

It is important for Large Language Models to be aware of the boundary of their knowledge, the mechanism of identifying known and unknown queries. This type of awareness can help models perform adaptive inference, such as invoking RAG, engaging in slow and deep thinking, or adopting the abstention mechanism, which is beneficial to the development of efficient and trustworthy AI. In this work, we propose a method to detect knowledge boundaries via Query-Level Uncertainty, which aims to determine if the model is able to address a given query without generating any tokens. To this end, we introduce a novel and training-free method called Internal Confidence, which leverages self-evaluations across layers and tokens. Empirical results on both factual QA and mathematical reasoning tasks demonstrate that our internal confidence can outperform several baselines. Furthermore, we showcase that our proposed method can be used for efficient RAG and model cascading, which is able to reduce inference costs while maintaining performance.

Characterizing a large language model's (LLM's) knowledge of a given question is challenging. As a result, prior work has primarily examined LLM behavior under knowledge conflicts, where the model's internal parametric memory contradicts information in the external context. However, this does not fully reflect how well the model knows the answer to the question. In this paper, we first introduce a taxonomy of five knowledge statuses based on the consistency and correctness of LLM knowledge modes. We then propose KScope, a hierarchical framework of statistical tests that progressively refines hypotheses about knowledge modes and characterizes LLM knowledge into one of these five statuses. We apply KScope to nine LLMs across four datasets and systematically establish: (1) Supporting context narrows knowledge gaps across models. (2) Context features related to difficulty, relevance, and familiarity drive successful knowledge updates. (3) LLMs exhibit similar feature preferences when partially correct or conflicted, but diverge sharply when consistently wrong. (4) Context summarization constrained by our feature analysis, together with enhanced credibility, further improves update effectiveness and generalizes across LLMs.

While confidence estimation is a promising direction for mitigating hallucinations in Large Language Models (LLMs), current research dominantly focuses on single-turn settings. The dynamics of model confidence in multi-turn conversations, where context accumulates and ambiguity is progressively resolved, remain largely unexplored. Reliable confidence estimation in multi-turn settings is critical for many downstream applications, such as autonomous agents and human-in-the-loop systems. This work presents the first systematic study of confidence estimation in multi-turn interactions, establishing a formal evaluation framework grounded in two key desiderata: per-turn calibration and monotonicity of confidence as more information becomes available. To facilitate this, we introduce novel metrics, including a length-normalized Expected Calibration Error (InfoECE), and a new "Hinter-Guesser" paradigm for generating controlled evaluation datasets. Our experiments reveal that widely-used confidence techniques struggle with calibration and monotonicity in multi-turn dialogues. We propose P(Sufficient), a logit-based probe that achieves comparatively better performance, although the task remains far from solved. Our work provides a foundational methodology for developing more reliable and trustworthy conversational agents.

Large language models (LLMs) have shown impressive performance in various reasoning benchmarks with the emergence of Chain-of-Thought (CoT) and its derivative methods, particularly in tasks involving multi-choice questions (MCQs). However, current works all process data uniformly without considering the problem-solving difficulty, which means an excessive focus on simple questions while insufficient to intricate ones. To address this challenge, we inspired by humans using heuristic strategies to categorize tasks and handle them individually, propose to apply the Divide and Conquer to LLMs reasoning. First, we divide questions into different subsets based on the statistical confidence score (CS), then fix nearly resolved sets and conquer demanding nuanced process ones with elaborately designed methods, including Prior Knowledge based Reasoning (PKR) and Filter Choices based Reasoning (FCR), as well as their integration variants. Our experiments demonstrate that this proposed strategy significantly boosts the models' reasoning abilities across nine datasets involving arithmetic, commonsense, and logic tasks. For instance, compared to baseline, we make a striking improvement on low confidence subsets of 8.72\% for AQuA, 15.07\% for ARC Challenge and 7.71\% for RiddleSense. In addition, through extensive analysis on length of rationale and number of options, we verify that longer reasoning paths in PKR could prevent models from referring infer-harmful shortcuts, and also find that removing irrelevant choices in FCR would substantially avoid models' confusion. The code is at https://github.com/AiMijie/Divide-and-Conquer

Embedding knowledge graphs (KGs) into continuous vector spaces is a focus of current research. Early works performed this task via simple models developed over KG triples. Recent attempts focused on either designing more complicated triple scoring models, or incorporating extra information beyond triples. This paper, by contrast, investigates the potential of using very simple constraints to improve KG embedding. We examine non-negativity constraints on entity representations and approximate entailment constraints on relation representations. The former help to learn compact and interpretable representations for entities. The latter further encode regularities of logical entailment between relations into their distributed representations. These constraints impose prior beliefs upon the structure of the embedding space, without negative impacts on efficiency or scalability. Evaluation on WordNet, Freebase, and DBpedia shows that our approach is simple yet surprisingly effective, significantly and consistently outperforming competitive baselines. The constraints imposed indeed improve model interpretability, leading to a substantially increased structuring of the embedding space. Code and data are available at https://github.com/iieir-km/ComplEx-NNE_AER.

To address the trade-off between computational efficiency and adherence to Kolmogorov-Arnold Network (KAN) principles, we propose TruKAN, a new architecture based on the KAN structure and learnable activation functions. TruKAN replaces the B-spline basis in KAN with a family of truncated power functions derived from k-order spline theory. This change maintains the KAN's expressiveness while enhancing accuracy and training time. Each TruKAN layer combines a truncated power term with a polynomial term and employs either shared or individual knots. TruKAN exhibits greater interpretability than other KAN variants due to its simplified basis functions and knot configurations. By prioritizing interpretable basis functions, TruKAN aims to balance approximation efficacy with transparency. We develop the TruKAN model and integrate it into an advanced EfficientNet-V2-based framework, which is then evaluated on computer vision benchmark datasets. To ensure a fair comparison, we develop various models: MLP-, KAN-, SineKAN and TruKAN-based EfficientNet frameworks and assess their training time and accuracy across small and deep architectures. The training phase uses hybrid optimization to improve convergence stability. Additionally, we investigate layer normalization techniques for all the models and assess the impact of shared versus individual knots in TruKAN. Overall, TruKAN outperforms other KAN models in terms of accuracy, computational efficiency and memory usage on the complex vision task, demonstrating advantages beyond the limited settings explored in prior KAN studies.

Self-consistency detects hallucinations by generating multiple sampled answers to a question and measuring agreement, but this requires repeated decoding and can be sensitive to lexical variation. Semantic self-consistency improves this by clustering sampled answers by meaning using natural language inference, but it adds both sampling cost and external inference overhead. We show that first-token confidence, phi_first, computed from the normalized entropy of the top-K logits at the first content-bearing answer token of a single greedy decode, matches or modestly exceeds semantic self-consistency on closed-book short-answer factual question answering. Across three 7-8B instruction-tuned models and two benchmarks, phi_first achieves a mean AUROC of 0.820, compared with 0.793 for semantic agreement and 0.791 for standard surface-form self-consistency. A subsumption test shows that phi_first is moderately to strongly correlated with semantic agreement, and combining the two signals yields only a small AUROC improvement over phi_first alone. These results suggest that much of the uncertainty information captured by multi-sample agreement is already available in the model's initial token distribution. We argue that phi_first should be reported as a default low-cost baseline before invoking sampling-based uncertainty estimation.

The increasing use of machine learning in clinical decision support has been limited by the lack of transparency of many high-performing models. In clinical settings, predictions must be interpretable, auditable, and actionable. This study investigates Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks (KANs) as intrinsically interpretable alternatives to conventional black-box models for clinical classification of tabular health data, aiming to balance predictive performance with clinically meaningful transparency. We introduce two KAN-based models: the Logistic KAN, a flexible generalization of logistic regression, and the Kolmogorov-Arnold Additive Model (KAAM), an additive variant that yields transparent symbolic representations through feature-wise decomposability. Both models are evaluated on multiple public clinical datasets and compared with standard linear, tree-based, and neural baselines. Across all datasets, the proposed models achieve predictive performance comparable to or exceeding that of commonly used baselines while remaining fully interpretable. Logistic-KAN obtains the highest overall ranking across evaluation metrics, with a mean reciprocal rank of 0.76, indicating consistently strong performance across tasks. KAAM provides competitive accuracy while offering enhanced transparency through feature-wise decomposability, patient-level visualizations, and nearest-patient retrieval, enabling direct inspection of individual predictions. KAN-based models provide a practical and trustworthy alternative to black-box models for clinical classification, offering a strong balance between predictive performance and interpretability for clinical decision support. By enabling transparent, patient-level reasoning and clinically actionable insights, the proposed models represent a promising step toward trustworthy AI in healthcare (code: https://github.com/Patricia-A-Apellaniz/classification_with_kans).

Reliable application of machine learning is of primary importance to the practical deployment of deep learning methods. A fundamental challenge is that models are often unreliable due to overconfidence. In this paper, we estimate a model's reliability by measuring the agreement between its latent space, and the latent space of a foundation model. However, it is challenging to measure the agreement between two different latent spaces due to their incoherence, \eg, arbitrary rotations and different dimensionality. To overcome this incoherence issue, we design a neighborhood agreement measure between latent spaces and find that this agreement is surprisingly well-correlated with the reliability of a model's predictions. Further, we show that fusing neighborhood agreement into a model's predictive confidence in a post-hoc way significantly improves its reliability. Theoretical analysis and extensive experiments on failure detection across various datasets verify the effectiveness of our method on both in-distribution and out-of-distribution settings.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are often augmented with external information as contexts, but this external information can sometimes be inaccurate or even intentionally misleading. We argue that robust LLMs should demonstrate situated faithfulness, dynamically calibrating their trust in external information based on their confidence in the internal knowledge and the external context. To benchmark this capability, we evaluate LLMs across several QA datasets, including a newly created dataset called RedditQA featuring in-the-wild incorrect contexts sourced from Reddit posts. We show that when provided with both correct and incorrect contexts, both open-source and proprietary models tend to overly rely on external information, regardless of its factual accuracy. To enhance situated faithfulness, we propose two approaches: Self-Guided Confidence Reasoning (SCR) and Rule-Based Confidence Reasoning (RCR). SCR enables models to self-access the confidence of external information relative to their own internal knowledge to produce the most accurate answer. RCR, in contrast, extracts explicit confidence signals from the LLM and determines the final answer using predefined rules. Our results show that for LLMs with strong reasoning capabilities, such as GPT-4o and GPT-4o mini, SCR outperforms RCR, achieving improvements of up to 24.2% over a direct input augmentation baseline. Conversely, for a smaller model like Llama-3-8B, RCR outperforms SCR. Fine-tuning SCR with our proposed Confidence Reasoning Direct Preference Optimization (CR-DPO) method improves performance on both seen and unseen datasets, yielding an average improvement of 8.9% on Llama-3-8B. In addition to quantitative results, we offer insights into the relative strengths of SCR and RCR. Our findings highlight promising avenues for improving situated faithfulness in LLMs. The data and code are released.

Ensuring reliable confidence scores from deep networks is of pivotal importance in critical decision-making systems, notably in the medical domain. While recent literature on calibrating deep segmentation networks has led to significant progress, their uncertainty is usually modeled by leveraging the information of individual pixels, which disregards the local structure of the object of interest. In particular, only the recent Spatially Varying Label Smoothing (SVLS) approach addresses this issue by softening the pixel label assignments with a discrete spatial Gaussian kernel. In this work, we first present a constrained optimization perspective of SVLS and demonstrate that it enforces an implicit constraint on soft class proportions of surrounding pixels. Furthermore, our analysis shows that SVLS lacks a mechanism to balance the contribution of the constraint with the primary objective, potentially hindering the optimization process. Based on these observations, we propose a principled and simple solution based on equality constraints on the logit values, which enables to control explicitly both the enforced constraint and the weight of the penalty, offering more flexibility. Comprehensive experiments on a variety of well-known segmentation benchmarks demonstrate the superior performance of the proposed approach.

Knowledge distillation (KD) is a widely used framework for training compact, task-specific models by leveraging the knowledge of teacher models. However, its application to active learning (AL), which aims to minimize annotation costs through iterative sample selection, remains underexplored. This gap stems from the fact that KD typically assumes access to sufficient labeled data, whereas AL operates in data-scarce scenarios where task-specific teacher models are often unavailable. In this paper, we introduce ActiveKD, a framework that integrates AL with KD by leveraging the zero- and few-shot capabilities of large vision-language models (VLMs). A key aspect of ActiveKD is the structured prediction bias of VLMs -- i.e., their predictions form clusters in the probability space. We regard this structure as an inductive bias of the teacher model, capturing generalizable output patterns beneficial to student learning. To exploit this bias, we propose Probabilistic CoreSet (PCoreSet), a selection strategy that maximizes coverage in the probability space rather than the feature space. PCoreSet strategically selects categorically diverse unlabeled samples, facilitating more efficient transfer of teacher knowledge under limited annotation budgets. Evaluations on 11 datasets show that PCoreSet consistently outperforms existing selection methods within the ActiveKD framework, advancing research at the intersection of AL and KD.

Large language models (LLMs) typically employ greedy decoding or low-temperature sampling for reasoning tasks, reflecting a perceived trade-off between diversity and accuracy. We challenge this convention by introducing top-nsigma, a novel sampling method that operates directly on pre-softmax logits by leveraging a statistical threshold. Our key insight is that logits naturally separate into a Gaussian-distributed noisy region and a distinct informative region, enabling efficient token filtering without complex probability manipulations. Unlike existing methods (e.g., top-p, min-p) that inadvertently include more noise tokens at higher temperatures, top-nsigma maintains a stable sampling space regardless of temperature scaling. We also provide a theoretical analysis of top-nsigma to better understand its behavior. The extensive experimental results across four reasoning-focused datasets demonstrate that our method not only outperforms existing sampling approaches but also surpasses greedy decoding, while maintaining consistent performance even at high temperatures.

The ability to acknowledge the inevitable uncertainty in their knowledge and reasoning is a prerequisite for AI systems to be truly truthful and reliable. In this paper, we present a taxonomy of uncertainty specific to vision-language AI systems, distinguishing between epistemic uncertainty (arising from a lack of information) and aleatoric uncertainty (due to inherent unpredictability), and further explore finer categories within. Based on this taxonomy, we synthesize a benchmark dataset, CertainlyUncertain, featuring 178K visual question answering (VQA) samples as contrastive pairs. This is achieved by 1) inpainting images to make previously answerable questions into unanswerable ones; and 2) using image captions to prompt large language models for both answerable and unanswerable questions. Additionally, we introduce a new metric confidence-weighted accuracy, that is well correlated with both accuracy and calibration error, to address the shortcomings of existing metrics.

In precision-oriented tasks like answer ranking, it is more important to rank many relevant answers highly than to retrieve all relevant answers. It follows that a good ranking strategy would be to learn how to identify the easiest correct answers first (i.e., assign a high ranking score to answers that have characteristics that usually indicate relevance, and a low ranking score to those with characteristics that do not), before incorporating more complex logic to handle difficult cases (e.g., semantic matching or reasoning). In this work, we apply this idea to the training of neural answer rankers using curriculum learning. We propose several heuristics to estimate the difficulty of a given training sample. We show that the proposed heuristics can be used to build a training curriculum that down-weights difficult samples early in the training process. As the training process progresses, our approach gradually shifts to weighting all samples equally, regardless of difficulty. We present a comprehensive evaluation of our proposed idea on three answer ranking datasets. Results show that our approach leads to superior performance of two leading neural ranking architectures, namely BERT and ConvKNRM, using both pointwise and pairwise losses. When applied to a BERT-based ranker, our method yields up to a 4% improvement in MRR and a 9% improvement in P@1 (compared to the model trained without a curriculum). This results in models that can achieve comparable performance to more expensive state-of-the-art techniques.

Knowledge graph (KG) link prediction aims to infer new facts based on existing facts in the KG. Recent studies have shown that using the graph neighborhood of a node via graph neural networks (GNNs) provides more useful information compared to just using the query information. Conventional GNNs for KG link prediction follow the standard message-passing paradigm on the entire KG, which leads to superfluous computation, over-smoothing of node representations, and also limits their expressive power. On a large scale, it becomes computationally expensive to aggregate useful information from the entire KG for inference. To address the limitations of existing KG link prediction frameworks, we propose a novel retrieve-and-read framework, which first retrieves a relevant subgraph context for the query and then jointly reasons over the context and the query with a high-capacity reader. As part of our exemplar instantiation for the new framework, we propose a novel Transformer-based GNN as the reader, which incorporates graph-based attention structure and cross-attention between query and context for deep fusion. This simple yet effective design enables the model to focus on salient context information relevant to the query. Empirical results on two standard KG link prediction datasets demonstrate the competitive performance of the proposed method. Furthermore, our analysis yields valuable insights for designing improved retrievers within the framework.

Recent progress in large language models (LLMs) has enabled them to express their confidence in natural language, enhancing transparency and reliability. However, their confidence often exhibits overconfidence, the cause of which remains poorly understood. In this work, we conduct a detailed analysis of the dynamics underlying verbalized confidence and identify answer-independence as a key factor, defined as the model's failure to condition confidence on its own answer. To address this, we propose ADVICE (Answer-Dependent Verbalized Confidence Estimation), a fine-tuning framework that facilitates answer-grounded confidence estimation. Extensive experiments show that ADVICE substantially improves confidence calibration while preserving task performance. Further analyses confirm that ADVICE strengthens answer-groundedness, leading to more balanced and well-calibrated confidence distributions. Our findings shed light on the origin of overconfidence and establish a framework for more trustworthy confidence verbalization.

Unbiased learning-to-rank (ULTR) is a well-established framework for learning from user clicks, which are often biased by the ranker collecting the data. While theoretically justified and extensively tested in simulation, ULTR techniques lack empirical validation, especially on modern search engines. The dataset released for the WSDM Cup 2023, collected from Baidu's search engine, offers a rare opportunity to assess the real-world performance of prominent ULTR techniques. Despite multiple submissions during the WSDM Cup 2023 and the subsequent NTCIR ULTRE-2 task, it remains unclear whether the observed improvements stem from applying ULTR or other learning techniques. We revisit and extend the available experiments. We find that unbiased learning-to-rank techniques do not bring clear performance improvements, especially compared to the stark differences brought by the choice of ranking loss and query-document features. Our experiments reveal that ULTR robustly improves click prediction. However, these gains in click prediction do not translate to enhanced ranking performance on expert relevance annotations, implying that conclusions strongly depend on how success is measured in this benchmark.

While significant advances exist in pseudo-label generation for semi-supervised semantic segmentation, pseudo-label selection remains understudied. Existing methods typically use fixed confidence thresholds to retain high-confidence predictions as pseudo-labels. However, these methods cannot cope with network overconfidence tendency, where correct and incorrect predictions overlap significantly in high-confidence regions, making separation challenging and amplifying model cognitive bias. Meanwhile, the direct discarding of low-confidence predictions disrupts spatial-semantic continuity, causing critical context loss. We propose Confidence Separable Learning (CSL) to address these limitations. CSL formulates pseudo-label selection as a convex optimization problem within the confidence distribution feature space, establishing sample-specific decision boundaries to distinguish reliable from unreliable predictions. Additionally, CSL introduces random masking of reliable pixels to guide the network in learning contextual relationships from low-reliability regions, thereby mitigating the adverse effects of discarding uncertain predictions. Extensive experimental results on the Pascal, Cityscapes, and COCO benchmarks show that CSL performs favorably against state-of-the-art methods. Code and model weights are available at https://github.com/PanLiuCSU/CSL.

The k-nearest neighbors (kNN) algorithm is a cornerstone of non-parametric classification in artificial intelligence, yet its deployment in large-scale applications is persistently constrained by the computational trade-off between inference speed and accuracy. Existing approximate nearest neighbor solutions accelerate retrieval but often degrade classification precision and lack adaptability in selecting the optimal neighborhood size (k). Here, we present an adaptive graph model that decouples inference latency from computational complexity. By integrating a Hierarchical Navigable Small World (HNSW) graph with a pre-computed voting mechanism, our framework completely transfers the computational burden of neighbor selection and weighting to the training phase. Within this topological structure, higher graph layers enable rapid navigation, while lower layers encode precise, node-specific decision boundaries with adaptive neighbor counts. Benchmarking against eight state-of-the-art baselines across six diverse datasets, we demonstrate that this architecture significantly accelerates inference speeds, achieving real-time performance, without compromising classification accuracy. These findings offer a scalable, robust solution to the long-standing inference bottleneck of kNN, establishing a new structural paradigm for graph-based nonparametric learning.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown remarkable capabilities across various tasks, but their deployment in high-stake domains requires consistent performance across multiple interaction rounds. This paper introduces a comprehensive framework for evaluating and improving LLM response consistency, making three key contributions. First, we propose a novel Position-Weighted Consistency (PWC) score that captures both the importance of early-stage stability and recovery patterns in multi-turn interactions. Second, we present a carefully curated benchmark dataset spanning diverse domains and difficulty levels, specifically designed to evaluate LLM consistency under various challenging follow-up scenarios. Third, we introduce Confidence-Aware Response Generation (CARG), a framework that significantly improves response stability by incorporating model confidence signals into the generation process. Empirical results demonstrate that CARG significantly improves response stability without sacrificing accuracy, underscoring its potential for reliable LLM deployment in critical applications.

Vector search systems, pivotal in AI applications, often rely on the Hierarchical Navigable Small Worlds (HNSW) algorithm. However, the behaviour of HNSW under real-world scenarios using vectors generated with deep learning models remains under-explored. Existing Approximate Nearest Neighbours (ANN) benchmarks and research typically has an over-reliance on simplistic datasets like MNIST or SIFT1M and fail to reflect the complexity of current use-cases. Our investigation focuses on HNSW's efficacy across a spectrum of datasets, including synthetic vectors tailored to mimic specific intrinsic dimensionalities, widely-used retrieval benchmarks with popular embedding models, and proprietary e-commerce image data with CLIP models. We survey the most popular HNSW vector databases and collate their default parameters to provide a realistic fixed parameterisation for the duration of the paper. We discover that the recall of approximate HNSW search, in comparison to exact K Nearest Neighbours (KNN) search, is linked to the vector space's intrinsic dimensionality and significantly influenced by the data insertion sequence. Our methodology highlights how insertion order, informed by measurable properties such as the pointwise Local Intrinsic Dimensionality (LID) or known categories, can shift recall by up to 12 percentage points. We also observe that running popular benchmark datasets with HNSW instead of KNN can shift rankings by up to three positions for some models. This work underscores the need for more nuanced benchmarks and design considerations in developing robust vector search systems using approximate vector search algorithms. This study presents a number of scenarios with varying real world applicability which aim to better increase understanding and future development of ANN algorithms and embedding

This paper democratizes neural information retrieval to scenarios where large scale relevance training signals are not available. We revisit the classic IR intuition that anchor-document relations approximate query-document relevance and propose a reinforcement weak supervision selection method, ReInfoSelect, which learns to select anchor-document pairs that best weakly supervise the neural ranker (action), using the ranking performance on a handful of relevance labels as the reward. Iteratively, for a batch of anchor-document pairs, ReInfoSelect back propagates the gradients through the neural ranker, gathers its NDCG reward, and optimizes the data selection network using policy gradients, until the neural ranker's performance peaks on target relevance metrics (convergence). In our experiments on three TREC benchmarks, neural rankers trained by ReInfoSelect, with only publicly available anchor data, significantly outperform feature-based learning to rank methods and match the effectiveness of neural rankers trained with private commercial search logs. Our analyses show that ReInfoSelect effectively selects weak supervision signals based on the stage of the neural ranker training, and intuitively picks anchor-document pairs similar to query-document pairs.

In this paper, we introduce BSRBF-KAN, a Kolmogorov Arnold Network (KAN) that combines B-splines and radial basis functions (RBFs) to fit input vectors during data training. We perform experiments with BSRBF-KAN, multi-layer perception (MLP), and other popular KANs, including EfficientKAN, FastKAN, FasterKAN, and GottliebKAN over the MNIST and Fashion-MNIST datasets. BSRBF-KAN shows stability in 5 training runs with a competitive average accuracy of 97.55% on MNIST and 89.33% on Fashion-MNIST and obtains convergence better than other networks. We expect BSRBF-KAN to open many combinations of mathematical functions to design KANs. Our repo is publicly available at: https://github.com/hoangthangta/BSRBF_KAN.

We address the neural network robustness problem by adding Similarity (i.e., correctly predicted depth-matches into training)-awareness and Distance-to-training-distribution-awareness to the existing output Magnitude (i.e., decision-boundary)-awareness of the softmax function. The resulting SDM activation function provides strong signals of the relative epistemic (reducible) predictive uncertainty. We use this novel behavior to further address the complementary HCI problem of mapping the output to human-interpretable summary statistics over relevant partitions of a held-out calibration set. Estimates of prediction-conditional uncertainty are obtained via a parsimonious learned transform over the class-conditional empirical CDFs of the output of a final-layer SDM activation function. For decision-making and as an intrinsic model check, estimates of class-conditional accuracy are obtained by further partitioning the high-probability regions of this calibrated output into class-conditional, region-specific CDFs. The uncertainty estimates from SDM calibration are remarkably robust to test-time distribution shifts and out-of-distribution inputs; incorporate awareness of the effective sample size; provide estimates of uncertainty from the learning and data splitting processes; and are well-suited for selective classification and conditional branching for additional test-time compute based on the predictive uncertainty, as for selective LLM generation, routing, and composition over multiple models and retrieval. Finally, we construct SDM networks, LLMs with uncertainty-aware verification and interpretability-by-exemplar as intrinsic properties. We provide open-source software implementing these results.

Language models contain ranking-based knowledge and are powerful solvers of in-context ranking tasks. For instance, they may have parametric knowledge about the ordering of countries by size or may be able to rank reviews by sentiment. Recent work focuses on pairwise, pointwise, and listwise prompting techniques to elicit a language model's ranking knowledge. However, we find that even with careful calibration and constrained decoding, prompting-based techniques may not always be self-consistent in the rankings they produce. This motivates us to explore an alternative approach that is inspired by an unsupervised probing method called Contrast-Consistent Search (CCS). The idea is to train a probing model guided by a logical constraint: a model's representation of a statement and its negation must be mapped to contrastive true-false poles consistently across multiple statements. We hypothesize that similar constraints apply to ranking tasks where all items are related via consistent pairwise or listwise comparisons. To this end, we extend the binary CCS method to Contrast-Consistent Ranking (CCR) by adapting existing ranking methods such as the Max-Margin Loss, Triplet Loss, and Ordinal Regression objective. Our results confirm that, for the same language model, CCR probing outperforms prompting and even performs on a par with prompting much larger language models.

High-dimensional datasets require effective feature selection to improve predictive performance, interpretability, and robustness. We propose and evaluate feature selection methods for tabular datasets based on Kolmogorov-Arnold networks (KANs), which parameterize feature transformations through splines, enabling direct access to interpretable importance measures. We introduce four KAN-based selectors (KAN-L1, KAN-L2, KAN-SI, KAN-KO) and compare them against classical baselines (LASSO, Random Forest, Mutual Information, SVM-RFE) across multiple classification and regression tabular dataset benchmarks. Average (over three retention levels: 20\%, 40\%, and 60\%) F1 scores and R^2 score results reveal that KAN-based selectors, particularly KAN-L2, KAN-L1, KAN-SI, and KAN-KO, are competitive with and sometimes superior to classical baselines in structured and synthetic datasets. However, KAN-L1 is often too aggressive in regression, removing useful features, while KAN-L2 underperforms in classification, where simple coefficient shrinkage misses complex feature interactions. KAN-L2 and KAN-SI provide robust performance on noisy regression datasets and heterogeneous datasets, aligning closely with ensemble predictors. In classification tasks, KAN selectors such as KAN-L1, KAN-KO, and KAN-SI sometimes surpass the other selectors by eliminating redundancy, particularly in high-dimensional multi-class data. Overall, our findings demonstrate that KAN-based feature selection provides a powerful and interpretable alternative to traditional methods, capable of uncovering nonlinear and multivariate feature relevance beyond sparsity or impurity-based measures.

We extend our previous work on Inductive Conformal Prediction (ICP) for multi-label text classification and present a novel approach for addressing the computational inefficiency of the Label Powerset (LP) ICP, arrising when dealing with a high number of unique labels. We present experimental results using the original and the proposed efficient LP-ICP on two English and one Czech language data-sets. Specifically, we apply the LP-ICP on three deep Artificial Neural Network (ANN) classifiers of two types: one based on contextualised (bert) and two on non-contextualised (word2vec) word-embeddings. In the LP-ICP setting we assign nonconformity scores to label-sets from which the corresponding p-values and prediction-sets are determined. Our approach deals with the increased computational burden of LP by eliminating from consideration a significant number of label-sets that will surely have p-values below the specified significance level. This reduces dramatically the computational complexity of the approach while fully respecting the standard CP guarantees. Our experimental results show that the contextualised-based classifier surpasses the non-contextualised-based ones and obtains state-of-the-art performance for all data-sets examined. The good performance of the underlying classifiers is carried on to their ICP counterparts without any significant accuracy loss, but with the added benefits of ICP, i.e. the confidence information encapsulated in the prediction sets. We experimentally demonstrate that the resulting prediction sets can be tight enough to be practically useful even though the set of all possible label-sets contains more than 1e+16 combinations. Additionally, the empirical error rates of the obtained prediction-sets confirm that our outputs are well-calibrated.

A plethora of sentence embedding models makes it challenging to choose one, especially for domains such as telecom, rich with specialized vocabulary. We evaluate multiple embeddings obtained from publicly available models and their domain-adapted variants, on both point retrieval accuracies as well as their (95\%) confidence intervals. We establish a systematic method to obtain thresholds for similarity scores for different embeddings. We observe that fine-tuning improves mean bootstrapped accuracies as well as tightens confidence intervals. The pre-training combined with fine-tuning makes confidence intervals even tighter. To understand these variations, we analyse and report significant correlations between the distributional overlap between top-K, correct and random sentence similarities with retrieval accuracies and similarity thresholds. Following current literature, we analyze if retrieval accuracy variations can be attributed to isotropy of embeddings. Our conclusions are that isotropy of embeddings (as measured by two independent state-of-the-art isotropy metric definitions) cannot be attributed to better retrieval performance. However, domain adaptation which improves retrieval accuracies also improves isotropy. We establish that domain adaptation moves domain specific embeddings further away from general domain embeddings.

Compact models often lose the structure of their embedding space. The issue shows up when the capacity is tight or the data spans several languages. Such collapse makes it difficult for downstream tasks to build on the resulting representation. Existing compression methods focus on aligning model outputs at a superficial level but fail to preserve the underlying manifold structure. This mismatch often leads to semantic drift in the compact model, causing both task behavior and linguistic properties to deviate from the reference model. To address those issues, we provide a new framework called Embedding Consistency Regulation (ECR). This framework first derives a set of semantic anchors from teacher embeddings (computed once offline). Then, the compact model learns to maintain consistent geometry around these anchors, without relying on matching logits or internal features. ECR adds only a small projection step at inference, without altering the decoding architecture or its runtime behavior. In experiments on a 100K multilingual corpus, ECR consistently stabilizes training and preserves semantic structure across tasks and languages. It also produces a more compact and task-aligned representation space, enabling low-capacity models to learn cleaner manifolds than conventional baselines. ECR works without teacher outputs and is compatible with, but independent of, distillation. Taken together, our results show that ECR helps compact models better follow task requirements and makes them easier to deploy under strict efficiency or privacy limits.

The ability to judge whether a caption correctly describes an image is a critical part of vision-language understanding. However, state-of-the-art models often misinterpret the correctness of fine-grained details, leading to errors in outputs such as hallucinating objects in generated captions or poor compositional reasoning. In this work, we explore Token-Level Confidence, or TLC, as a simple yet surprisingly effective method to assess caption correctness. Specifically, we fine-tune a vision-language model on image captioning, input an image and proposed caption to the model, and aggregate either algebraic or learned token confidences over words or sequences to estimate image-caption consistency. Compared to sequence-level scores from pretrained models, TLC with algebraic confidence measures achieves a relative improvement in accuracy by 10% on verb understanding in SVO-Probes and outperforms prior state-of-the-art in image and group scores for compositional reasoning in Winoground by a relative 37% and 9%, respectively. When training data are available, a learned confidence estimator provides further improved performance, reducing object hallucination rates in MS COCO Captions by a relative 30% over the original model and setting a new state-of-the-art.

High-quality pre-training data is crutial for large language models, where quality captures factual reliability and semantic value, and diversity ensures broad coverage and distributional heterogeneity. Existing approaches typically rely on single or multiple-dimensional score-based selection. However, directly selecting top-scored data often degrades performance, and sampling from a broader range is required to recover results. The above non-monotonicity between dataset scores and downstream benchmark results reveals a fundamental bias: score-based methods collapse correlated dimensions, causing top-scored data to appear high-quality while systematically overlooking diversity. We argue that ensuring diversity requires decomposing correlated metrics into orthogonal feature dimensions, from which the top-scored data can be directly selected. Therefore, we proposed the Orthogonal Diversity-Aware Selection (ODiS) algorithm, which preserves both quality and diversity during data selection. First, ODiS evaluates data from multiple dimensions, covering language quality, knowledge quality, and comprehension difficulty. The multi-dimensional scores are then decorrelated via Principal Component Analysis (PCA), yielding orthogonal evaluation dimensions. For each dimension, a Roberta-based scorer is trained to regress the data onto PCA-projected scores, enabling scalable inference on large corpora. Finally, ODiS constructs the training dataset by selecting top-scored data within each orthogonal dimension, thereby ensuring both quality and diversity. Empirical results show that ODiS-selected data exhibit less than 2\% inter-dimension overlap, confirming orthogonality between dimensions. More importantly, models trained with ODiS-selected data significantly outperform other baselines on downstream benchmarks, highlighting the necessity of orthogonal, diversity-aware data selection for LLMs.

Knowledge Graphs (KG) are of vital importance for multiple applications on the web, including information retrieval, recommender systems, and metadata annotation. Regardless of whether they are built manually by domain experts or with automatic pipelines, KGs are often incomplete. Recent work has begun to explore the use of textual descriptions available in knowledge graphs to learn vector representations of entities in order to preform link prediction. However, the extent to which these representations learned for link prediction generalize to other tasks is unclear. This is important given the cost of learning such representations. Ideally, we would prefer representations that do not need to be trained again when transferring to a different task, while retaining reasonable performance. In this work, we propose a holistic evaluation protocol for entity representations learned via a link prediction objective. We consider the inductive link prediction and entity classification tasks, which involve entities not seen during training. We also consider an information retrieval task for entity-oriented search. We evaluate an architecture based on a pretrained language model, that exhibits strong generalization to entities not observed during training, and outperforms related state-of-the-art methods (22% MRR improvement in link prediction on average). We further provide evidence that the learned representations transfer well to other tasks without fine-tuning. In the entity classification task we obtain an average improvement of 16% in accuracy compared with baselines that also employ pre-trained models. In the information retrieval task, we obtain significant improvements of up to 8.8% in NDCG@10 for natural language queries. We thus show that the learned representations are not limited KG-specific tasks, and have greater generalization properties than evaluated in previous work.

Large vision-language models suffer from visual ungroundedness: they can produce a fluent, confident, and even correct response driven entirely by language priors, with the image contributing nothing to the prediction. Existing confidence estimation methods cannot detect this, as they observe model behavior under normal inference with no mechanism to determine whether a prediction was shaped by the image or by text alone. We introduce BICR (Blind-Image Contrastive Ranking), a model-agnostic confidence estimation framework that makes this contrast explicit during training by extracting hidden states from a frozen LVLM twice: once with the real image-question pair, and once with the image blacked out while the question is held fixed. A lightweight probe is trained on the real-image hidden state and regularized by a ranking loss that penalizes higher confidence on the blacked-out view, teaching it to treat visual grounding as a signal of reliability at zero additional inference cost. Evaluated across five modern LVLMs and seven baselines on a benchmark covering visual question answering, object hallucination detection, medical imaging, and financial document understanding, BICR achieves the best cross-LVLM average on both calibration and discrimination simultaneously, with statistically significant discrimination gains robust to cluster-aware analysis at 4-18x fewer parameters than the strongest probing baseline.

Recent advancements in language models have led to significant improvements in mathematical reasoning across various benchmarks. However, most of these benchmarks rely on automatic evaluation methods that only compare final answers using heuristics, without verifying the underlying reasoning steps. This limitation results in false positive solutions, where models may produce correct final answers but with flawed deduction paths. In this paper, we systematically examine the prevalence of false positive solutions in mathematical problem solving for language models. We analyze the characteristics and extent of this issue across different open-source models, datasets of varying difficulty levels, and decoding strategies. Specifically, we explore how false positives influence the inference time scaling behavior of language models. Our experimental results reveal that: (1) false positive solutions persist across different models, datasets, and decoding methods, (2) sampling-based inference time scaling methods do not alleviate the problem, and (3) the pass@N evaluation metric is more susceptible to false positives, suggesting a significantly lower scaling ceiling than what automatic evaluations indicate. Additionally, we analyze specific instances of false positives and discuss potential limitations in self-improvement techniques and synthetic data generation under such conditions. Our data and code are publicly available at https://github.com/Wloner0809/False-Positives-in-Math.

Self-consistency decoding enhances LLMs' performance on reasoning tasks by sampling diverse reasoning paths and selecting the most frequent answer. However, it is computationally expensive, as sampling many of these (lengthy) paths is required to increase the chances that the correct answer emerges as the most frequent one. To address this, we introduce Confidence-Informed Self-Consistency (CISC). CISC performs a weighted majority vote based on confidence scores obtained directly from the model. By prioritizing high-confidence paths, it can identify the correct answer with a significantly smaller sample size. When tested on nine models and four datasets, CISC outperforms self-consistency in nearly all configurations, reducing the required number of reasoning paths by over 40% on average. In addition, we introduce the notion of within-question confidence evaluation, after showing that standard evaluation methods are poor predictors of success in distinguishing correct and incorrect answers to the same question. In fact, the most calibrated confidence method proved to be the least effective for CISC. Lastly, beyond these practical implications, our results and analyses show that LLMs can effectively judge the correctness of their own outputs, contributing to the ongoing debate on this topic.

Selective Classification, wherein models can reject low-confidence predictions, promises reliable translation of machine-learning based classification systems to real-world scenarios such as clinical diagnostics. While current evaluation of these systems typically assumes fixed working points based on pre-defined rejection thresholds, methodological progress requires benchmarking the general performance of systems akin to the AUROC in standard classification. In this work, we define 5 requirements for multi-threshold metrics in selective classification regarding task alignment, interpretability, and flexibility, and show how current approaches fail to meet them. We propose the Area under the Generalized Risk Coverage curve (AUGRC), which meets all requirements and can be directly interpreted as the average risk of undetected failures. We empirically demonstrate the relevance of AUGRC on a comprehensive benchmark spanning 6 data sets and 13 confidence scoring functions. We find that the proposed metric substantially changes metric rankings on 5 out of the 6 data sets.

In enhancing the reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs), prior research primarily focuses on specific prompting techniques such as few-shot or zero-shot chain-of-thought (CoT) prompting. These methods, while effective, often involve manually intensive prompt engineering. Our study takes a novel approach by asking: Can LLMs reason effectively without prompting? Our findings reveal that, intriguingly, CoT reasoning paths can be elicited from pre-trained LLMs by simply altering the decoding process. Rather than conventional greedy decoding, we investigate the top-k alternative tokens, uncovering that CoT paths are frequently inherent in these sequences. This approach not only bypasses the confounders of prompting but also allows us to assess the LLMs' intrinsic reasoning abilities. Moreover, we observe that the presence of a CoT in the decoding path correlates with a higher confidence in the model's decoded answer. This confidence metric effectively differentiates between CoT and non-CoT paths. Extensive empirical studies on various reasoning benchmarks show that the proposed CoT-decoding substantially outperforms the standard greedy decoding.

Scaling the test-time compute of large language models has demonstrated impressive performance on reasoning benchmarks. However, existing evaluations of test-time scaling make the strong assumption that a reasoning system should always give an answer to any question provided. This overlooks concerns about whether a model is confident in its answer, and whether it is appropriate to always provide a response. To address these concerns, we extract confidence scores during reasoning for thresholding model responses. We find that increasing compute budget at inference time not only helps models answer more questions correctly, but also increases confidence in correct responses. We then extend the current paradigm of zero-risk responses during evaluation by considering settings with non-zero levels of response risk, and suggest a recipe for reporting evaluations under these settings.

Recent advances such as self-consistency and test-time reinforcement learning (TTRL) improve the reliability of large language models (LLMs) without additional supervision, yet their underlying mechanisms and statistical guarantees remain poorly understood. We present a unified framework for certifiable inference in LLMs, showing that majority voting provides a statistical certificate of self-consistency: under mild assumptions, the aggregated answer coincides with the mode of the model's terminal distribution with high probability. We derive finite-sample and anytime-valid concentration bounds that quantify this confidence, and introduce the Martingale Majority Certificate (MMC), a sequential stopping rule that adaptively determines when sufficient samples have been drawn. We further prove that label-free post-training methods such as TTRL implicitly sharpen the answer distribution by exponentially tilting it toward its mode, thereby reducing the number of samples required for certification. Building on this insight, we propose new post-training objectives that explicitly optimise this trade-off between sharpness and bias. Together, these results explain and connect two central test-time scaling strategies, self-consistency and TTRL, within a single statistical framework for label-free, certifiable reliability in reasoning LLMs.

Pseudo-Relevance Feedback (PRF) utilises the relevance signals from the top-k passages from the first round of retrieval to perform a second round of retrieval aiming to improve search effectiveness. A recent research direction has been the study and development of PRF methods for deep language models based rankers, and in particular in the context of dense retrievers. Dense retrievers, compared to more complex neural rankers, provide a trade-off between effectiveness, which is often reduced compared to more complex neural rankers, and query latency, which also is reduced making the retrieval pipeline more efficient. The introduction of PRF methods for dense retrievers has been motivated as an attempt to further improve their effectiveness. In this paper, we reproduce and study a recent method for PRF with dense retrievers, called ANCE-PRF. This method concatenates the query text and that of the top-k feedback passages to form a new query input, which is then encoded into a dense representation using a newly trained query encoder based on the original dense retriever used for the first round of retrieval. While the method can potentially be applied to any of the existing dense retrievers, prior work has studied it only in the context of the ANCE dense retriever. We study the reproducibility of ANCE-PRF in terms of both its training (encoding of the PRF signal) and inference (ranking) steps. We further extend the empirical analysis provided in the original work to investigate the effect of the hyper-parameters that govern the training process and the robustness of the method across these different settings. Finally, we contribute a study of the generalisability of the ANCE-PRF method when dense retrievers other than ANCE are used for the first round of retrieval and for encoding the PRF signal.