Daily Papers

In recent years, there has been increasing interest in developing foundation models for time series data that can generalize across diverse downstream tasks. While numerous forecasting-oriented foundation models have been introduced, there is a notable scarcity of models tailored for time series classification. To address this gap, we present Mantis, a new open-source foundation model for time series classification based on the Vision Transformer (ViT) architecture that has been pre-trained using a contrastive learning approach. Our experimental results show that Mantis outperforms existing foundation models both when the backbone is frozen and when fine-tuned, while achieving the lowest calibration error. In addition, we propose several adapters to handle the multivariate setting, reducing memory requirements and modeling channel interdependence.

Current speaker verification techniques rely on a neural network to extract speaker representations. The successful x-vector architecture is a Time Delay Neural Network (TDNN) that applies statistics pooling to project variable-length utterances into fixed-length speaker characterizing embeddings. In this paper, we propose multiple enhancements to this architecture based on recent trends in the related fields of face verification and computer vision. Firstly, the initial frame layers can be restructured into 1-dimensional Res2Net modules with impactful skip connections. Similarly to SE-ResNet, we introduce Squeeze-and-Excitation blocks in these modules to explicitly model channel interdependencies. The SE block expands the temporal context of the frame layer by rescaling the channels according to global properties of the recording. Secondly, neural networks are known to learn hierarchical features, with each layer operating on a different level of complexity. To leverage this complementary information, we aggregate and propagate features of different hierarchical levels. Finally, we improve the statistics pooling module with channel-dependent frame attention. This enables the network to focus on different subsets of frames during each of the channel's statistics estimation. The proposed ECAPA-TDNN architecture significantly outperforms state-of-the-art TDNN based systems on the VoxCeleb test sets and the 2019 VoxCeleb Speaker Recognition Challenge.

Image downscaling is a fundamental operation in image processing, crucial for adapting high-resolution content to various display and storage constraints. While classic methods often introduce blurring or aliasing, recent learning-based approaches offer improved adaptivity. However, achieving maximal fidelity against ground-truth low-resolution (LR) images, particularly by accounting for channel-specific characteristics, remains an open challenge. This paper introduces ADK-Net (Adaptive Downscaling Kernel Network), a novel deep convolutional neural network framework for high-fidelity supervised image downscaling. ADK-Net explicitly addresses channel interdependencies by learning to predict spatially-varying, adaptive resampling kernels independently for each pixel and uniquely for each color channel (RGB). The architecture employs a hierarchical design featuring a ResNet-based feature extractor and parallel channel-specific kernel generators, themselves composed of ResNet-based trunk and branch sub-modules, enabling fine-grained kernel prediction. Trained end-to-end using an L1 reconstruction loss against ground-truth LR data, ADK-Net effectively learns the target downscaling transformation. Extensive quantitative and qualitative experiments on standard benchmarks, including the RealSR dataset, demonstrate that ADK-Net establishes a new state-of-the-art in supervised image downscaling, yielding significant improvements in PSNR and SSIM metrics compared to existing learning-based and traditional methods.

Due to the increased demand for music streaming/recommender services and the recent developments of music information retrieval frameworks, Music Genre Classification (MGC) has attracted the community's attention. However, convolutional-based approaches are known to lack the ability to efficiently encode and localize temporal features. In this paper, we study the broadcast-based neural networks aiming to improve the localization and generalizability under a small set of parameters (about 180k) and investigate twelve variants of broadcast networks discussing the effect of block configuration, pooling method, activation function, normalization mechanism, label smoothing, channel interdependency, LSTM block inclusion, and variants of inception schemes. Our computational experiments using relevant datasets such as GTZAN, Extended Ballroom, HOMBURG, and Free Music Archive (FMA) show state-of-the-art classification accuracies in Music Genre Classification. Our approach offers insights and the potential to enable compact and generalizable broadcast networks for music and audio classification.

Time series forecasting has attracted significant attention in recent decades. Previous studies have demonstrated that the Channel-Independent (CI) strategy improves forecasting performance by treating different channels individually, while it leads to poor generalization on unseen instances and ignores potentially necessary interactions between channels. Conversely, the Channel-Dependent (CD) strategy mixes all channels with even irrelevant and indiscriminate information, which, however, results in oversmoothing issues and limits forecasting accuracy. There is a lack of channel strategy that effectively balances individual channel treatment for improved forecasting performance without overlooking essential interactions between channels. Motivated by our observation of a correlation between the time series model's performance boost against channel mixing and the intrinsic similarity on a pair of channels, we developed a novel and adaptable Channel Clustering Module (CCM). CCM dynamically groups channels characterized by intrinsic similarities and leverages cluster information instead of individual channel identities, combining the best of CD and CI worlds. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate that CCM can (1) boost the performance of CI and CD models by an average margin of 2.4% and 7.2% on long-term and short-term forecasting, respectively; (2) enable zero-shot forecasting with mainstream time series forecasting models; (3) uncover intrinsic time series patterns among channels and improve interpretability of complex time series models.

Multivariate time series forecasting plays a crucial role in various fields such as finance, traffic management, energy, and healthcare. Recent studies have highlighted the advantages of channel independence to resist distribution drift but neglect channel correlations, limiting further enhancements. Several methods utilize mechanisms like attention or mixer to address this by capturing channel correlations, but they either introduce excessive complexity or rely too heavily on the correlation to achieve satisfactory results under distribution drifts, particularly with a large number of channels. Addressing this gap, this paper presents an efficient MLP-based model, the Series-cOre Fused Time Series forecaster (SOFTS), which incorporates a novel STar Aggregate-Redistribute (STAR) module. Unlike traditional approaches that manage channel interactions through distributed structures, e.g., attention, STAR employs a centralized strategy to improve efficiency and reduce reliance on the quality of each channel. It aggregates all series to form a global core representation, which is then dispatched and fused with individual series representations to facilitate channel interactions effectively.SOFTS achieves superior performance over existing state-of-the-art methods with only linear complexity. The broad applicability of the STAR module across different forecasting models is also demonstrated empirically. For further research and development, we have made our code publicly available at https://github.com/Secilia-Cxy/SOFTS.

Coopetition refers to simultaneous cooperation and competition among actors wherein actors 'cooperate to grow the pie and compete to split it up.' Modern socio-technical systems are characterized by strategic coopetition wherein actors concomitantly cooperate to create value and compete to capture it. While conceptual modeling languages such as i* provide rich qualitative representations of strategic dependencies, they lack mechanisms for quantitative analysis of dynamic trade-offs. Conversely, classical game theory offers mathematical rigor but strips away contextual richness. This report bridges this gap by developing computational foundations that formalize two critical dimensions of coopetition: interdependence and complementarity. We ground interdependence in i* structural dependency analysis, translating depender-dependee-dependum relationships into quantitative interdependence coefficients via a structured translation framework. We formalize complementarity following Brandenburger and Nalebuff's Added Value concept, modeling synergistic value creation with validated parameterization. We integrate structural dependencies with bargaining power in value appropriation and introduce a game-theoretic formulation where Nash Equilibrium incorporates structural interdependence. Validation combines over 22,000 experimental trials across power and logarithmic specifications with the Samsung-Sony S-LCD joint venture (2004-2011). Under strict historical alignment scoring, logarithmic specifications achieve 58/60 compared to power functions (46/60), producing realistic 41% cooperation increases aligning with documented S-LCD patterns while power functions produce 166% increases exceeding realistic bounds. Statistical significance confirmed at p < 0.001, Cohen's d > 9.

Recently, channel-independent methods have achieved state-of-the-art performance in multivariate time series (MTS) forecasting. Despite reducing overfitting risks, these methods miss potential opportunities in utilizing channel dependence for accurate predictions. We argue that there exist locally stationary lead-lag relationships between variates, i.e., some lagged variates may follow the leading indicators within a short time period. Exploiting such channel dependence is beneficial since leading indicators offer advance information that can be used to reduce the forecasting difficulty of the lagged variates. In this paper, we propose a new method named LIFT that first efficiently estimates leading indicators and their leading steps at each time step and then judiciously allows the lagged variates to utilize the advance information from leading indicators. LIFT plays as a plugin that can be seamlessly collaborated with arbitrary time series forecasting methods. Extensive experiments on six real-world datasets demonstrate that LIFT improves the state-of-the-art methods by 5.5% in average forecasting performance. Our code is available at https://github.com/SJTU-Quant/LIFT.

Multivariate time series forecasting tasks are usually conducted in a channel-dependent (CD) way since it can incorporate more variable-relevant information. However, it may also involve a lot of irrelevant variables, and this even leads to worse performance than the channel-independent (CI) strategy. This paper combines the strengths of both strategies and proposes the Deep Graph Clustering Transformer (DGCformer) for multivariate time series forecasting. Specifically, it first groups these relevant variables by a graph convolutional network integrated with an autoencoder, and a former-latter masked self-attention mechanism is then considered with the CD strategy being applied to each group of variables while the CI one for different groups. Extensive experimental results on eight datasets demonstrate the superiority of our method against state-of-the-art models, and our code will be publicly available upon acceptance.

Accurate Multivariate Time Series (MTS) forecasting is crucial for collaborative design of complex systems, Digital Twin building, and maintenance ahead of time. However, the collaborative industrial environment presents new challenges for MTS forecasting models: models should decouple complex inter-variable dependencies while addressing non-stationary distribution shift brought by environmental changes. To address these challenges and improve collaborative sensing reliability, we propose a Patch-Based Dual-Branch Channel-Temporal Forecasting Network (D-CTNet). Particularly, with a parallel dual-branch design incorporating linear temporal modeling layer and channel attention mechanism, our method explicitly decouples and jointly learns intra-channel temporal evolution patterns and dynamic multivariate correlations. Furthermore, a global patch attention fusion module goes beyond the local window scope to model long range dependencies. Most importantly, aiming at non-stationarity, a Frequency-Domain Stationarity Correction mechanism adaptively suppresses distribution shift impacts from environment change by spectrum alignment. Evaluations on seven benchmark datasets show that our model achieves better forecasting accuracy and robustness compared with state-of-the-art methods. Our work shows great promise as a new forecasting engine for industrial collaborative systems.

Benefiting from the capability of building inter-dependencies among channels or spatial locations, attention mechanisms have been extensively studied and broadly used in a variety of computer vision tasks recently. In this paper, we investigate light-weight but effective attention mechanisms and present triplet attention, a novel method for computing attention weights by capturing cross-dimension interaction using a three-branch structure. For an input tensor, triplet attention builds inter-dimensional dependencies by the rotation operation followed by residual transformations and encodes inter-channel and spatial information with negligible computational overhead. Our method is simple as well as efficient and can be easily plugged into classic backbone networks as an add-on module. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method on various challenging tasks including image classification on ImageNet-1k and object detection on MSCOCO and PASCAL VOC datasets. Furthermore, we provide extensive in-sight into the performance of triplet attention by visually inspecting the GradCAM and GradCAM++ results. The empirical evaluation of our method supports our intuition on the importance of capturing dependencies across dimensions when computing attention weights. Code for this paper can be publicly accessed at https://github.com/LandskapeAI/triplet-attention

The Lightning Network (LN) is a second-layer protocol for Bitcoin designed to enable fast and cost-efficient off-chain transactions. Channels in the LN can be closed either by mutual agreement or unilaterally through a forced closure, which locks the involved capital for an extended period and degrades network reliability. In this paper, we study the problem of predicting channel closure types from publicly available gossip data, framing it as a temporal link classification task over the evolving channel graph. We construct a dataset spanning over two years of LN activity and benchmark a range of machine learning approaches, from MLPs to temporal graph neural networks and spectral encodings. Our experiments reveal that the dominant predictive signals are temporal and behavioural, namely how recently each endpoint was active and the per-node history of past closures, while the surrounding network topology provides no additional benefit. We find that a simple MLP operating on edge-level features, node-level event counts, and temporal patterns outperforms all graph-based approaches, and discuss how the inherent privacy of the LN, where critical information such as channel balances and payment flows remains hidden, fundamentally limits the predictability of closures from gossip data alone. We publicly release the dataset and code at https://github.com/AmbossTech/ln-channel-closure-prediction to encourage further research on this practically relevant task.

Recently, channel attention mechanism has demonstrated to offer great potential in improving the performance of deep convolutional neural networks (CNNs). However, most existing methods dedicate to developing more sophisticated attention modules for achieving better performance, which inevitably increase model complexity. To overcome the paradox of performance and complexity trade-off, this paper proposes an Efficient Channel Attention (ECA) module, which only involves a handful of parameters while bringing clear performance gain. By dissecting the channel attention module in SENet, we empirically show avoiding dimensionality reduction is important for learning channel attention, and appropriate cross-channel interaction can preserve performance while significantly decreasing model complexity. Therefore, we propose a local cross-channel interaction strategy without dimensionality reduction, which can be efficiently implemented via 1D convolution. Furthermore, we develop a method to adaptively select kernel size of 1D convolution, determining coverage of local cross-channel interaction. The proposed ECA module is efficient yet effective, e.g., the parameters and computations of our modules against backbone of ResNet50 are 80 vs. 24.37M and 4.7e-4 GFLOPs vs. 3.86 GFLOPs, respectively, and the performance boost is more than 2% in terms of Top-1 accuracy. We extensively evaluate our ECA module on image classification, object detection and instance segmentation with backbones of ResNets and MobileNetV2. The experimental results show our module is more efficient while performing favorably against its counterparts.

Many recent multivariate time series anomaly detection (MTSAD) models incorporate cross-channel modeling, under the implicit assumption that the structure of anomalies may be spread across multiple channels. We evaluate this assumption on eight widely used public benchmarks by introducing a per-segment diagnostic framework that flags, for each labeled anomaly, whether at least one channel deviates individually from its normal history, whether the cross-channel correlation structure changes, or both. The framework shows that no cross-channel rupture occurs without an accompanying univariate deviation across a range of reasonable thresholds. A complementary metric also reveals that on six of the eight benchmarks, at least half of the labeled anomaly segments deviate univariately on 89% to 100% of their timesteps, reaching 100% on three of these datasets. To verify that our framework captures cross-channel structure when present, we construct synthetic data of phase-shifted sinusoidal channels with shared noise. Each anomalous segment is altered through one of two channel-wise corruptions that preserve the per-channel marginal distribution while breaking cross-channel structure, and our framework correctly characterizes these segments as cross-channel-only. On these data, channel-dependent (CD) models successfully exploit the cross-channel signal whereas channel-independent (CI) ones fail. The CI/CD comparison of a recent SOTA detector on real benchmarks further confirms that CD modeling brings no measurable gain. We conclude that current MTSAD benchmarks are unsuitable for validating cross-channel modeling capabilities, and we call for the development of more structurally diverse evaluation sets. The code for this study is publicly available.

Recent studies on mobile network design have demonstrated the remarkable effectiveness of channel attention (e.g., the Squeeze-and-Excitation attention) for lifting model performance, but they generally neglect the positional information, which is important for generating spatially selective attention maps. In this paper, we propose a novel attention mechanism for mobile networks by embedding positional information into channel attention, which we call "coordinate attention". Unlike channel attention that transforms a feature tensor to a single feature vector via 2D global pooling, the coordinate attention factorizes channel attention into two 1D feature encoding processes that aggregate features along the two spatial directions, respectively. In this way, long-range dependencies can be captured along one spatial direction and meanwhile precise positional information can be preserved along the other spatial direction. The resulting feature maps are then encoded separately into a pair of direction-aware and position-sensitive attention maps that can be complementarily applied to the input feature map to augment the representations of the objects of interest. Our coordinate attention is simple and can be flexibly plugged into classic mobile networks, such as MobileNetV2, MobileNeXt, and EfficientNet with nearly no computational overhead. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our coordinate attention is not only beneficial to ImageNet classification but more interestingly, behaves better in down-stream tasks, such as object detection and semantic segmentation. Code is available at https://github.com/Andrew-Qibin/CoordAttention.

Prior studies in learned image compression (LIC) consistently show that only a small subset of latent channels is critical for reconstruction, while many others carry limited information. Exploiting this imbalance could improve both coding and computational efficiency, yet existing approaches often rely on costly, dataset-specific ablation tests and typically analyze channels in isolation, ignoring their interdependencies. We propose a generalizable, dataset-agnostic method to identify and organize important channels in pretrained VAE-based LIC models. Instead of brute-force empirical evaluations, our approach leverages intrinsic parameter statistics-weight variances, bias magnitudes, and pairwise correlations-to estimate channel importance. This analysis reveals a consistent organizational structure, termed the Invariant Salient Channel Space (ISCS), where Salient-Core channels capture dominant structures and Salient-Auxiliary channels provide complementary details. Building on ISCS, we introduce a deterministic channel ordering and grouping strategy that enables slice-parallel decoding, reduces redundancy, and improves bitrate efficiency. Experiments across multiple LIC architectures demonstrate that our method effectively reduces bitrate and computation while maintaining reconstruction quality, providing a practical and modular enhancement to existing learned compression frameworks.

Informative features play a crucial role in the single image super-resolution task. Channel attention has been demonstrated to be effective for preserving information-rich features in each layer. However, channel attention treats each convolution layer as a separate process that misses the correlation among different layers. To address this problem, we propose a new holistic attention network (HAN), which consists of a layer attention module (LAM) and a channel-spatial attention module (CSAM), to model the holistic interdependencies among layers, channels, and positions. Specifically, the proposed LAM adaptively emphasizes hierarchical features by considering correlations among layers. Meanwhile, CSAM learns the confidence at all the positions of each channel to selectively capture more informative features. Extensive experiments demonstrate that the proposed HAN performs favorably against the state-of-the-art single image super-resolution approaches.

Deep learning models for channel estimation in Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing (OFDM) systems often suffer from performance degradation under fast-fading channels and low-SNR scenarios. To address these limitations, we introduce the Adaptive Fortified Transformer (AdaFortiTran), a novel model specifically designed to enhance channel estimation in challenging environments. Our approach employs convolutional layers that exploit locality bias to capture strong correlations between neighboring channel elements, combined with a transformer encoder that applies the global Attention mechanism to channel patches. This approach effectively models both long-range dependencies and spectro-temporal interactions within single OFDM frames. We further augment the model's adaptability by integrating nonlinear representations of available channel statistics SNR, delay spread, and Doppler shift as priors. A residual connection is employed to merge global features from the transformer with local features from early convolutional processing, followed by final convolutional layers to refine the hierarchical channel representation. Despite its compact architecture, AdaFortiTran achieves up to 6 dB reduction in mean squared error (MSE) compared to state-of-the-art models. Tested across a wide range of Doppler shifts (200-1000 Hz), SNRs (0 to 25 dB), and delay spreads (50-300 ns), it demonstrates superior robustness in high-mobility environments.

Recent studies have demonstrated the great power of Transformer models for time series forecasting. One of the key elements that lead to the transformer's success is the channel-independent (CI) strategy to improve the training robustness. However, the ignorance of the correlation among different channels in CI would limit the model's forecasting capacity. In this work, we design a special Transformer, i.e., Channel Aligned Robust Blend Transformer (CARD for short), that addresses key shortcomings of CI type Transformer in time series forecasting. First, CARD introduces a channel-aligned attention structure that allows it to capture both temporal correlations among signals and dynamical dependence among multiple variables over time. Second, in order to efficiently utilize the multi-scale knowledge, we design a token blend module to generate tokens with different resolutions. Third, we introduce a robust loss function for time series forecasting to alleviate the potential overfitting issue. This new loss function weights the importance of forecasting over a finite horizon based on prediction uncertainties. Our evaluation of multiple long-term and short-term forecasting datasets demonstrates that CARD significantly outperforms state-of-the-art time series forecasting methods. The code is available at the following repository:https://github.com/wxie9/CARD

Strategic coopetition in multi-stakeholder systems requires understanding how cooperation persists through time without binding contracts. This technical report extends computational foundations for strategic coopetition to sequential interaction dynamics, bridging conceptual modeling (i* framework) with game-theoretic reciprocity analysis. We develop: (1) bounded reciprocity response functions mapping partner deviations to finite conditional responses, (2) memory-windowed history tracking capturing cognitive limitations over k recent periods, (3) structural reciprocity sensitivity derived from interdependence matrices where behavioral responses are amplified by structural dependencies, and (4) trust-gated reciprocity where trust modulates reciprocity responses. The framework applies to both human stakeholder interactions and multi-agent computational systems. Comprehensive validation across 15,625 parameter configurations demonstrates robust reciprocity effects, with all six behavioral targets exceeding thresholds: cooperation emergence (97.5%), defection punishment (100%), forgiveness dynamics (87.9%), asymmetric differentiation (100%), trust-reciprocity interaction (100%), and bounded responses (100%). Empirical validation using the Apple iOS App Store ecosystem (2008-2024) achieves 43/51 applicable points (84.3%), reproducing documented cooperation patterns across five ecosystem phases. Statistical significance confirmed at p < 0.001 with Cohen's d = 1.57. This report concludes the Foundations Series (TR-1 through TR-4) adopting uniaxial treatment where agents choose cooperation levels along a single continuum. Companion work on interdependence (arXiv:2510.18802), trust (arXiv:2510.24909), and collective action (arXiv:2601.16237) has been prepublished. Extensions Series (TR-5 through TR-8) introduces biaxial treatment where cooperation and competition are independent dimensions.

Channel prediction is an effective approach for reducing the feedback or estimation overhead in massive multi-input multi-output (m-MIMO) systems. However, existing channel prediction methods lack precision due to model mismatch errors or network generalization issues. Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated powerful modeling and generalization abilities, and have been successfully applied to cross-modal tasks, including the time series analysis. Leveraging the expressive power of LLMs, we propose a pre-trained LLM-empowered channel prediction method (LLM4CP) to predict the future downlink channel state information (CSI) sequence based on the historical uplink CSI sequence. We fine-tune the network while freezing most of the parameters of the pre-trained LLM for better cross-modality knowledge transfer. To bridge the gap between the channel data and the feature space of the LLM, preprocessor, embedding, and output modules are specifically tailored by taking into account unique channel characteristics. Simulations validate that the proposed method achieves SOTA prediction performance on full-sample, few-shot, and generalization tests with low training and inference costs.

Controllable music generation with deep generative models has become increasingly reliant on disentanglement learning techniques. However, current disentanglement metrics, such as mutual information gap (MIG), are often inadequate and misleading when used for evaluating latent representations in the presence of interdependent semantic attributes often encountered in real-world music datasets. In this work, we propose a dependency-aware information metric as a drop-in replacement for MIG that accounts for the inherent relationship between semantic attributes.

Modeling high-order feature interactions efficiently is a central challenge in click-through rate and conversion rate prediction. Modern industrial recommender systems are predominantly built upon deep learning recommendation models, where the interaction backbone plays a critical role in determining both predictive performance and system efficiency. However, existing interaction modules often struggle to simultaneously achieve strong interaction capacity, high computational efficiency, and good scalability, resulting in limited ROI when models are scaled under strict production constraints. In this work, we propose MLCC, a structured feature interaction architecture that organizes feature crosses through hierarchical compression and dynamic composition, which can efficiently capture high-order feature dependencies while maintaining favorable computational complexity. We further introduce MC-MLCC, a Multi-Channel extension that decomposes feature interactions into parallel subspaces, enabling efficient horizontal scaling with improved representation capacity and significantly reduced parameter growth. Extensive experiments on three public benchmarks and a large-scale industrial dataset show that our proposed models consistently outperform strong DLRM-style baselines by up to 0.52 AUC, while reducing model parameters and FLOPs by up to 26times under comparable performance. Comprehensive scaling analyses demonstrate stable and predictable scaling behavior across embedding dimension, head number, and channel count, with channel-based scaling achieving substantially better efficiency than conventional embedding inflation. Finally, online A/B testing on a real-world advertising platform validates the practical effectiveness of our approach, which has been widely adopted in Bilibili advertising system under strict latency and resource constraints.

Time series forecasting is essential in various domains. Compared to relying solely on endogenous variables (i.e., target variables), considering exogenous variables (i.e., covariates) provides additional predictive information and often leads to more accurate predictions. However, existing methods for time series forecasting with exogenous variables (TSF-X) have the following shortcomings: 1) they do not leverage future exogenous variables, 2) they fail to fully account for the correlation between endogenous and exogenous variables. In this study, to better leverage exogenous variables, especially future exogenous variables, we propose DAG, which utilizes Dual correlAtion network along both the temporal and channel dimensions for time series forecasting with exoGenous variables. Specifically, we propose two core components: the Temporal Correlation Module and the Channel Correlation Module. Both modules consist of a correlation discovery submodule and a correlation injection submodule. The former is designed to capture the correlation effects of historical exogenous variables on future exogenous variables and on historical endogenous variables, respectively. The latter injects the discovered correlation relationships into the processes of forecasting future endogenous variables based on historical endogenous variables and future exogenous variables.