Daily Papers

We introduce TiRex-2, a recurrent xLSTM-based time series foundation model that generalizes the univariate TiRex to multivariate forecasting with both past and future covariates. Real-world forecasting is inherently sequential: observations arrive continuously, variables evolve jointly, and a subset of covariates is known ahead of time. Existing Transformer-based time series foundation models capture cross-variate dependencies but incur quadratic complexity in context length and require full-history recomputation as new observations arrive. TiRex-2 addresses these limitations through a memory-centric recurrent design that operates at constant per-patch cost under streaming. The model combines a bidirectional time mixer with an asymmetric grouped-attention variate mixer, enabling the integration of future-known covariates while preserving strict causality over target variables. To our knowledge, this is the first time series foundation model that achieves this combination of properties. To support scalable multivariate pretraining, we propose a synthetic coupling pipeline that composes diverse multivariate samples on the fly from large univariate corpora. Empirically, TiRex-2 achieves state-of-the-art zero-shot performance on GIFT-Eval and fev-bench, remains stable when streamed to arbitrary context lengths, and maintains constant inference cost per patch. The model uses 38.4M active parameters in univariate mode, with an additional 44.1M parameters activated for multivariate forecasting.

Skill-distillation pipelines learn reusable rules from LLM agent trajectories, but they lack a key signal: how much each step costs. Without per-step cost, a pipeline cannot distinguish adding a missing step to fix a bug from removing an expensive step that never affected the outcome. We introduce ClawTrace, an agent tracing platform that records every LLM call, tool use, and sub-agent spawn during an agent session and compiles each session into a TraceCard: a compact YAML summary with per-step USD cost, token counts, and redundancy flags. Built on ClawTrace, CostCraft is a distillation pipeline that reads TraceCards and produces three types of skill patches. Preserve patches keep behaviors that led to success. Prune patches remove expensive steps that did not matter, each backed by a counterfactual argument against a named high-cost step. Repair patches fix failures grounded in oracle evidence. Ablations on 30 held-out SpreadsheetBench tasks show that both cost attribution and prune patches independently reduce quality regressions. When the same skill is applied to 30 unrelated SkillsBench tasks, an unexpected asymmetry emerges: prune rules transferred across benchmarks and cut median cost by 32%, while preserve rules, trained on benchmark-specific conventions, caused regressions on new task types. We release ClawTrace and TraceCards as open infrastructure for cost-aware agent research.

Agentic AI development today runs on token maxing: buying capability with tokens -- longer reasoning traces, more turns, wider tool payloads, bigger replayed contexts -- so tokens per task grow faster than task value. Falling per-token prices mask the pattern; total spend rises anyway. We argue the decisive lever against token maxing is the harness: the orchestration layer that assembles context, exposes tools, sequences turns, delegates work, and carries enterprise observability and governance. We isolate it with a controlled swap: 22 locked evaluation tasks, six foundation models (Claude Sonnet 4.6, Gemini 3.1, Gemini Flash 3.5, Qwen 3.6, GLM 5.1, Palmyra X6), changing only the orchestration layer -- a frozen conventional production loop versus the Writer Agent Harness. Holding models constant, the harness cuts blended cost per task 41% (0.21->0.12), median wall-clock 44% (48s->27s), and tokens per task 38% (14.2k->8.8k), with task-completion quality at parity (0.78->0.81, directional at this sample size). Efficiency is model-invariant -- every model gets cheaper (33-61%) -- while quality gains are capability-dependent: a model's gain correlates almost perfectly with its baseline strength (r=0.99, n=6), a phenomenon we term harness leverage. Quality per dollar rises 82%; task-completions per million tokens rise from 54.9 to 92.0. On this workload the orchestration layer moved cost per task more than the full spread of the model menu did. We formalize token economics at the orchestration layer (including effective input price under prompt caching), detail the six mechanism families behind the effect -- cache-shape discipline to failure-spend governance -- compare six widely used agent systems on the same axes, and argue the harness is the one component whose efficiency multiplies across every model an organization runs -- present and future.

Automated Program Repair (APR) attempts to fix software bugs without human intervention, which plays a crucial role in software development and maintenance. Recently, with the advances in Large Language Models (LLMs), a rapidly increasing number of APR techniques have been proposed with remarkable performance. However, existing LLM-based APR techniques typically adopt trial-and-error strategies, which suffer from two major drawbacks: (1) inherently limited patch effectiveness due to local exploration, and (2) low search efficiency due to redundant exploration. In this paper, we propose APRMCTS, which uses iterative tree search to improve LLM-based APR. APRMCTS incorporates Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) into patch searching by performing a global evaluation of the explored patches and selecting the most promising one for subsequent refinement and generation. APRMCTS effectively resolves the problems of falling into local optima and thus helps improve the efficiency of patch searching. Our experiments on 835 bugs from Defects4J demonstrate that, when integrated with GPT-3.5, APRMCTS can fix a total of 201 bugs, which outperforms all state-of-the-art baselines. Besides, APRMCTS helps GPT-4o-mini, GPT-3.5, Yi-Coder-9B, and Qwen2.5-Coder-7B to fix 30, 27, 37, and 28 more bugs, respectively. More importantly, APRMCTS boasts a significant performance advantage while employing small patch size (16 and 32), notably fewer than the 500 and 10,000 patches adopted in previous studies. In terms of cost, compared to existing state-of-the-art LLM-based APR methods, APRMCTS has time and monetary costs of less than 20% and 50%, respectively. Our extensive study demonstrates that APRMCTS exhibits good effectiveness and efficiency, with particular advantages in addressing complex bugs.

The rapid advancement of bug-finding techniques has led to the discovery of more vulnerabilities than developers can reasonably fix, creating an urgent need for effective Automated Program Repair (APR) methods. However, the complexity of modern bugs often makes precise root cause analysis difficult and unreliable. To address this challenge, we propose crash-site repair to simplify the repair task while still mitigating the risk of exploitation. In addition, we introduce a template-guided patch generation approach that significantly reduces the token cost of Large Language Models (LLMs) while maintaining both efficiency and effectiveness. We implement our prototype system, WILLIAMT, and evaluate it against state-of-the-art APR tools. Our results show that, when combined with the top-performing agent CodeRover-S, WILLIAMT reduces token cost by 45.9% and increases the bug-fixing rate to 73.5% (+29.6%) on ARVO, a ground-truth open source software vulnerabilities benchmark. Furthermore, we demonstrate that WILLIAMT can function effectively even without access to frontier LLMs: even a local model running on a Mac M4 Mini achieves a reasonable repair rate. These findings highlight the broad applicability and scalability of WILLIAMT.