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Jun 19

PaintBench: Deterministic Evaluation of Precise Visual Editing

While current multimodal models are proficient at open-ended visual editing, executing precise single-answer edits remains an important obstacle. To probe this challenge, we introduce PaintBench, a dynamically scalable benchmark targeting 20 fundamental precise visual editing operations across four categories: geometric transformation, structural manipulation, color change, and symbolic reasoning. Procedural generation with configurable complexity enables an effectively infinite, contamination-resistant evaluation suite, and deterministic pixel-level evaluation eliminates reliance on bias-prone judge models. Across 11 image editing models, we find overall low performance, with the current highest-performing industry leader scoring only 17.1% (mIoU). Task decomposition reveals especially challenging operation types (geometric transformation, most structural manipulation, formula-based color change) and model-specific specializations. Fine-grained benchmark diagnostics further show performance degradations induced by scene variations in object count, background complexity, color scheme, and edit-region size. To test generalization of PaintBench scores to applied task performance, we create a procedural, deterministic evaluation for data visualization editing (TinyGrafixBench) and find strong linear correlation with PaintBench scores (R^2 = 0.91, p < 0.001). Altogether, PaintBench provides a rigorous foundation for measuring and driving progress in precise multimodal visual editing.

nyu-visionx VISIONx @ NYU
·
May 28 3

Stochastic CHAOS: Why Deterministic Inference Kills, and Distributional Variability Is the Heartbeat of Artifical Cognition

Deterministic inference is a comforting ideal in classical software: the same program on the same input should always produce the same output. As large language models move into real-world deployment, this ideal has been imported wholesale into inference stacks. Recent work from the Thinking Machines Lab has presented a detailed analysis of nondeterminism in LLM inference, showing how batch-invariant kernels and deterministic attention can enforce bitwise-identical outputs, positioning deterministic inference as a prerequisite for reproducibility and enterprise reliability. In this paper, we take the opposite stance. We argue that, for LLMs, deterministic inference kills. It kills the ability to model uncertainty, suppresses emergent abilities, collapses reasoning into a single brittle path, and weakens safety alignment by hiding tail risks. LLMs implement conditional distributions over outputs, not fixed functions. Collapsing these distributions to a single canonical completion may appear reassuring, but it systematically conceals properties central to artificial cognition. We instead advocate Stochastic CHAOS, treating distributional variability as a signal to be measured and controlled. Empirically, we show that deterministic inference is systematically misleading. Single-sample deterministic evaluation underestimates both capability and fragility, masking failure probability under paraphrases and noise. Phase-like transitions associated with emergent abilities disappear under greedy decoding. Multi-path reasoning degrades when forced onto deterministic backbones, reducing accuracy and diagnostic insight. Finally, deterministic evaluation underestimates safety risk by hiding rare but dangerous behaviors that appear only under multi-sample evaluation.

  • 10 authors
·
Jan 12 2

LLM-42: Enabling Determinism in LLM Inference with Verified Speculation

In LLM inference, the same prompt may yield different outputs across different runs. At the system level, this non-determinism arises from floating-point non-associativity combined with dynamic batching and GPU kernels whose reduction orders vary with batch size. A straightforward way to eliminate non-determinism is to disable dynamic batching during inference, but doing so severely degrades throughput. Another approach is to make kernels batch-invariant; however, this tightly couples determinism to kernel design, requiring new implementations. This coupling also imposes fixed runtime overheads, regardless of how much of the workload actually requires determinism. Inspired by ideas from speculative decoding, we present LLM-42, a scheduling-based approach to enable determinism in LLM inference. Our key observation is that if a sequence is in a consistent state, the next emitted token is likely to be consistent even with dynamic batching. Moreover, most GPU kernels use shape-consistent reductions. Leveraging these insights, LLM-42 decodes tokens using a non-deterministic fast path and enforces determinism via a lightweight verify-rollback loop. The verifier replays candidate tokens under a fixed-shape reduction schedule, commits those that are guaranteed to be consistent across runs, and rolls back those violating determinism. LLM-42 mostly re-uses existing kernels unchanged and incurs overhead only in proportion to the traffic that requires determinism.

  • 4 authors
·
Jan 29

I-GLIDE: Input Groups for Latent Health Indicators in Degradation Estimation

Accurate remaining useful life (RUL) prediction hinges on the quality of health indicators (HIs), yet existing methods often fail to disentangle complex degradation mechanisms in multi-sensor systems or quantify uncertainty in HI reliability. This paper introduces a novel framework for HI construction, advancing three key contributions. First, we adapt Reconstruction along Projected Pathways (RaPP) as a health indicator (HI) for RUL prediction for the first time, showing that it outperforms traditional reconstruction error metrics. Second, we show that augmenting RaPP-derived HIs with aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty quantification (UQ) via Monte Carlo dropout and probabilistic latent spaces- significantly improves RUL-prediction robustness. Third, and most critically, we propose indicator groups, a paradigm that isolates sensor subsets to model system-specific degradations, giving rise to our novel method, I-GLIDE which enables interpretable, mechanism-specific diagnostics. Evaluated on data sourced from aerospace and manufacturing systems, our approach achieves marked improvements in accuracy and generalizability compared to state-of-the-art HI methods while providing actionable insights into system failure pathways. This work bridges the gap between anomaly detection and prognostics, offering a principled framework for uncertainty-aware degradation modeling in complex systems.

orailix Orailix
·
Nov 26, 2025 2

Replayable Financial Agents: A Determinism-Faithfulness Assurance Harness for Tool-Using LLM Agents

LLM agents struggle with regulatory audit replay: when asked to reproduce a flagged transaction decision with identical inputs, many deployments fail to return consistent results. We introduce the Determinism-Faithfulness Assurance Harness (DFAH), a framework for measuring trajectory determinism, decision determinism, and evidence-conditioned faithfulness in tool-using agents deployed in financial services. Across 4,700+ agentic runs (7 models, 4 providers, 3 financial benchmarks with 50 cases each at T=0.0), we find that decision determinism and task accuracy are not detectably correlated (r = -0.11, 95% CI [-0.49, 0.31], p = 0.63, n = 21 configurations): models can be deterministic without being accurate, and accurate without being deterministic. Because neither metric predicts the other in our sample, both must be measured independently, which is precisely what DFAH provides. Small models (7-20B) achieve near-perfect determinism through rigid pattern matching at the cost of accuracy (20-42%), while frontier models show moderate determinism (50-96%) with variable accuracy. No model achieves both perfect determinism and high accuracy, supporting DFAH's multi-dimensional measurement approach. We provide three financial benchmarks (compliance triage, portfolio constraints, and DataOps exceptions; 50 cases each) together with an open-source stress-test harness. Across these benchmarks and DFAH evaluation settings, Tier 1 models with schema-first architectures achieved determinism levels consistent with audit replay requirements.

  • 1 authors
·
Mar 6

Degradation Prediction of Semiconductor Lasers using Conditional Variational Autoencoder

Semiconductor lasers have been rapidly evolving to meet the demands of next-generation optical networks. This imposes much more stringent requirements on the laser reliability, which are dominated by degradation mechanisms (e.g., sudden degradation) limiting the semiconductor laser lifetime. Physics-based approaches are often used to characterize the degradation behavior analytically, yet explicit domain knowledge and accurate mathematical models are required. Building such models can be very challenging due to a lack of a full understanding of the complex physical processes inducing the degradation under various operating conditions. To overcome the aforementioned limitations, we propose a new data-driven approach, extracting useful insights from the operational monitored data to predict the degradation trend without requiring any specific knowledge or using any physical model. The proposed approach is based on an unsupervised technique, a conditional variational autoencoder, and validated using vertical-cavity surface-emitting laser (VCSEL) and tunable edge emitting laser reliability data. The experimental results confirm that our model (i) achieves a good degradation prediction and generalization performance by yielding an F1 score of 95.3%, (ii) outperforms several baseline ML based anomaly detection techniques, and (iii) helps to shorten the aging tests by early predicting the failed devices before the end of the test and thereby saving costs

  • 5 authors
·
Nov 5, 2022

"I May Not Have Articulated Myself Clearly": Diagnosing Dynamic Instability in LLM Reasoning at Inference Time

Reasoning failures in large language models (LLMs) are typically measured only at the end of a generation, yet many failures manifest as a process-level breakdown: the model "loses the thread" mid-reasoning. We study whether such breakdowns are detectable from inference-time observables available in standard APIs (token log probabilities), without any training or fine-tuning. We define a simple instability signal that combines consecutive-step distributional shift (JSD) and uncertainty (entropy), summarize each trace by its peak instability strength, and show that this signal reliably predicts failure. Across GSM8K and HotpotQA, instability strength predicts wrong answers with above-chance AUC and yields monotonic bucket-level accuracy decline at scale across model sizes. Crucially, we show that instability is not uniformly harmful: early instability can reflect subsequent stabilization and a correct final answer (corrective instability), whereas late instability is more often followed by failure (destructive instability), even at comparable peak magnitudes, indicating that recoverability depends not only on how strongly the distribution changes but also on when such changes occur relative to the remaining decoding horizon. The method is model-agnostic, training-free, and reproducible, and is presented as a diagnostic lens rather than a corrective or control mechanism.

  • 4 authors
·
Feb 2 3

The Predicted-Updates Dynamic Model: Offline, Incremental, and Decremental to Fully Dynamic Transformations

We formulate the predicted-updates dynamic model, one of the first beyond-worst-case models for dynamic algorithms, which generalizes a large set of well-studied dynamic models including the offline dynamic, incremental, and decremental models to the fully dynamic setting when given predictions about the update times of the elements. In the most basic form of our model, we receive a set of predicted update times for all of the updates that occur over the event horizon. We give a novel framework that "lifts" offline divide-and-conquer algorithms into the fully dynamic setting with little overhead. Using this, we are able to interpolate between the offline and fully dynamic settings; when the ell_1 error of the prediction is linear in the number of updates, we achieve the offline runtime of the algorithm (up to poly log n factors). Provided a fully dynamic backstop algorithm, our algorithm will never do worse than the backstop algorithm regardless of the prediction error. Furthermore, our framework achieves a smooth linear trade-off between ell_1 error in the predictions and runtime. These correspond to the desiderata of consistency, robustness, and graceful degradation of the algorithms-with-predictions literature. We further extend our techniques to incremental and decremental settings, transforming algorithms in these settings when given predictions of only the deletion and insertion times, respectively. Our framework is general, and we apply it to obtain improved efficiency bounds over the state-of-the-art dynamic algorithms for a variety of problems including triconnectivity, planar digraph all pairs shortest paths, k-edge connectivity, and others, for prediction error of reasonable magnitude.

  • 2 authors
·
Jul 17, 2023

BatteryMFormer: Multi-level Learning for Battery Degradation Trajectory Forecasting

Early battery degradation trajectory forecasting (BDTF), which predicts the full-life state-of-health trajectory from early operational data, is critical for battery optimization, manufacturing, and deployment. Battery degradation data exhibit two key characteristics. First, degradation data present a multi-level structure, including regularities shared within aging conditions and trajectory patterns shared across batteries. Second, degradation-related variations in voltage-current profiles are often localized to specific state-of-charge (SOC) intervals. Existing approaches often fail to explicitly model these characteristics. To bridge this gap, we propose BatteryMFormer, a multi-level Transformer for early BDTF. BatteryMFormer integrates (1) an aging-condition-aware decoder that injects aging-condition priors via aging-condition-informed queries and aging-condition-aware attention, (2) a meta degradation pattern memory that learns and retrieves trajectory prototypes to guide long-horizon forecasting, and (3) a dual-view encoder that jointly captures temporal dynamics and SOC-localized variations from voltage and current time series. Extensive experiments on four battery domains show that BatteryMFormer consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines, marking a significant step toward reliable BDTF. Our code is available at https://github.com/Ruifeng-Tan/BatteryMFormer.

HKUSTGZ HKUSTGZ
·
May 25 2

Verified Detection and Prevention of Concurrency Anomalies in Multi-Agent Large Language Model Systems

Multi-agent LLM systems share state through memory stores, vector indices, and tool registries. We model such sharing as long-running read-generate-write operations under deterministic-generation semantics -- the regime durable-execution engines enforce by deterministic replay -- and formalize four concurrency anomalies in TLA+: stale-generation, phantom-tool, causal-cascade, and tool-effect reordering, structural analogues of classical isolation anomalies, each with a TLC counter-example. The exclusion lattice over these anomalies is trivial; the contribution is the mechanically verified realizability and strict separation of one maximal chain within it, L_0 subsetneq cdots subsetneq L_4, to our knowledge the first machine-checked consistency hierarchy for such runtimes. A development of 274 Verus obligations (zero assume, zero admit; trust base: two structural axioms and a mutex correspondence) proves the detectors sound and complete against the specifications and each runtime its avoidance set. Three deployed Rust runtimes realize L0-L1 (pessimistic locking, serializable snapshot isolation, default-SI), each verified against stale-generation and refined to its state machine; L2-L4 are exec-mode-verified with dependency-free prevention twins (A3, A6, A2: 0/1000 versus 1000/1000), and L2 is run live across three model families (A3 prevented in all 120 retracted sessions). We reproduce a silent lost update in ByteDance's deer-flow, formalizing its fix as a verified L_0 to L_1 refinement, and exhibit tool-effect reordering in LangGraph's ToolNode on unmodified output, removed by an L3 commit-order sequencer. The verified detector, refinements, and realizability artifacts are the contribution; the phenomena and lattice are classical.

  • 1 authors
·
Jun 14 1

SpatialEvo: Self-Evolving Spatial Intelligence via Deterministic Geometric Environments

Spatial reasoning over three-dimensional scenes is a core capability for embodied intelligence, yet continuous model improvement remains bottlenecked by the cost of geometric annotation. The self-evolving paradigm offers a promising path, but its reliance on model consensus to construct pseudo-labels causes training to reinforce rather than correct the model's own geometric errors. We identify a property unique to 3D spatial reasoning that circumvents this limitation: ground truth is a deterministic consequence of the underlying geometry, computable exactly from point clouds and camera poses without any model involvement. Building on this insight, we present SpatialEvo, a self-evolving framework for 3D spatial reasoning, centered on the Deterministic Geometric Environment (DGE). The DGE formalizes 16 spatial reasoning task categories under explicit geometric validation rules and converts unannotated 3D scenes into zero-noise interactive oracles, replacing model consensus with objective physical feedback. A single shared-parameter policy co-evolves across questioner and solver roles under DGE constraints: the questioner generates physically valid spatial questions grounded in scene observations, while the solver derives precise answers against DGE-verified ground truth. A task-adaptive scheduler endogenously concentrates training on the model's weakest categories, producing a dynamic curriculum without manual design. Experiments across nine benchmarks demonstrate that SpatialEvo achieves the highest average score at both 3B and 7B scales, with consistent gains on spatial reasoning benchmarks and no degradation on general visual understanding.

  • 19 authors
·
Apr 14 2

AdaIR: Adaptive All-in-One Image Restoration via Frequency Mining and Modulation

In the image acquisition process, various forms of degradation, including noise, haze, and rain, are frequently introduced. These degradations typically arise from the inherent limitations of cameras or unfavorable ambient conditions. To recover clean images from degraded versions, numerous specialized restoration methods have been developed, each targeting a specific type of degradation. Recently, all-in-one algorithms have garnered significant attention by addressing different types of degradations within a single model without requiring prior information of the input degradation type. However, these methods purely operate in the spatial domain and do not delve into the distinct frequency variations inherent to different degradation types. To address this gap, we propose an adaptive all-in-one image restoration network based on frequency mining and modulation. Our approach is motivated by the observation that different degradation types impact the image content on different frequency subbands, thereby requiring different treatments for each restoration task. Specifically, we first mine low- and high-frequency information from the input features, guided by the adaptively decoupled spectra of the degraded image. The extracted features are then modulated by a bidirectional operator to facilitate interactions between different frequency components. Finally, the modulated features are merged into the original input for a progressively guided restoration. With this approach, the model achieves adaptive reconstruction by accentuating the informative frequency subbands according to different input degradations. Extensive experiments demonstrate that the proposed method achieves state-of-the-art performance on different image restoration tasks, including denoising, dehazing, deraining, motion deblurring, and low-light image enhancement. Our code is available at https://github.com/c-yn/AdaIR.

  • 6 authors
·
Mar 21, 2024 2

DORNet: A Degradation Oriented and Regularized Network for Blind Depth Super-Resolution

Recent RGB-guided depth super-resolution methods have achieved impressive performance under the assumption of fixed and known degradation (e.g., bicubic downsampling). However, in real-world scenarios, captured depth data often suffer from unconventional and unknown degradation due to sensor limitations and complex imaging environments (e.g., low reflective surfaces, varying illumination). Consequently, the performance of these methods significantly declines when real-world degradation deviate from their assumptions. In this paper, we propose the Degradation Oriented and Regularized Network (DORNet), a novel framework designed to adaptively address unknown degradation in real-world scenes through implicit degradation representations. Our approach begins with the development of a self-supervised degradation learning strategy, which models the degradation representations of low-resolution depth data using routing selection-based degradation regularization. To facilitate effective RGB-D fusion, we further introduce a degradation-oriented feature transformation module that selectively propagates RGB content into the depth data based on the learned degradation priors. Extensive experimental results on both real and synthetic datasets demonstrate the superiority of our DORNet in handling unknown degradation, outperforming existing methods. The code is available at https://github.com/yanzq95/DORNet.

  • 6 authors
·
Oct 15, 2024

LLMs Can Get "Brain Rot"!

We propose and test the LLM Brain Rot Hypothesis: continual exposure to junk web text induces lasting cognitive decline in large language models (LLMs). To causally isolate data quality, we run controlled experiments on real Twitter/X corpora, constructing junk and reversely controlled datasets via two orthogonal operationalizations: M1 (engagement degree) and M2 (semantic quality), with matched token scale and training operations across conditions. Contrary to the control group, continual pre-training of 4 LLMs on the junk dataset causes non-trivial declines (Hedges' g>0.3) on reasoning, long-context understanding, safety, and inflating "dark traits" (e.g., psychopathy, narcissism). The gradual mixtures of junk and control datasets also yield dose-response cognition decay: for example, under M1, ARC-Challenge with Chain Of Thoughts drops 74.9 rightarrow 57.2 and RULER-CWE 84.4 rightarrow 52.3 as junk ratio rises from 0% to 100%. Error forensics reveal several key insights. First, we identify thought-skipping as the primary lesion: models increasingly truncate or skip reasoning chains, explaining most of the error growth. Second, partial but incomplete healing is observed: scaling instruction tuning and clean data pre-training improve the declined cognition yet cannot restore baseline capability, suggesting persistent representational drift rather than format mismatch. Finally, we discover that the popularity, a non-semantic metric, of a tweet is a better indicator of the Brain Rot effect than the length in M1. Together, the results provide significant, multi-perspective evidence that data quality is a causal driver of LLM capability decay, reframing curation for continual pretraining as a training-time safety problem and motivating routine "cognitive health checks" for deployed LLMs.

SpaceDG: Benchmarking Spatial Intelligence under Visual Degradation

Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) have made rapid progress in spatial intelligence, yet existing spatial reasoning benchmarks largely assume pristine visual inputs and overlook the degradations that commonly occur in real-world deployment, such as motion blur, low light, adverse weather, lens distortion, and compression artifacts. This raises a fundamental question: how robust is the spatial intelligence of current MLLMs when visual observations are imperfect? To answer this question, we introduce SpaceDG, the first large-scale dataset for degradation-aware spatial understanding. It is constructed with a physically grounded degradation synthesis engine that embeds degradation formation process into 3D Gaussian Splatting (3DGS) rendering, enabling realistic simulation of nine degradation types. The resulting dataset contains approximately 1M QA pairs from nearly 1,000 indoor scenes. We further introduce SpaceDG-Bench, an human-verified benchmark with 1,102 questions spanning 11 reasoning categories and 9 visual degradation types, yielding over 10K VQA instances. Evaluating 25 open- and closed-source MLLMs reveals that visual degradations consistently and substantially impair spatial reasoning, exposing a critical robustness gap. Finally, we show that finetuning on SpaceDG markedly improves degradation robustness and can even surpass human performance under degraded conditions without any performance drop on clean images, highlighting the promise of degradation-aware training for robust spatial intelligence.

Control-Plane Placement Shapes Forgetting: An Architectural Study of Agent Memory Across Thirteen System Configurations

Where an LLM sits in an agent memory pipeline -- between the recall plane that retrieves stored facts (extensively benchmarked) and the control plane that mutates them via supersede, release, purge (largely untested) -- shapes which forgetting failure modes the system recovers. Comparing thirteen system configurations on a 385-case adversarial surface, we observe three placement regimes with partly complementary coverage: deterministic primitives suffice for lexical/temporal categories but fail canonicalization (5% on identifier-obfuscation, 0% on cross-lingual); inscribe-time LLM recovers canonicalization (100%) but cannot help intent-aware deletion (0% on prefix-collision and compound-fact); a mutation-time hook recovers intent-aware deletion (78-85%) and brightens nearly all categories simultaneously (91.7-93.2% overall, $0.17 per 385-case run, 2.3s/case mutation latency vs. 64-191ms/case deterministic, recall path unchanged). We expose the trade-off via ForgetEval, a 1000-case templated suite plus a 385-case adversarial layer (132 hand-crafted + 253 LLM-drafted oracle-validated) scored by deterministic substring match, paired with a six-method Adapter Protocol with honest N/A scoring that lets heterogeneous memory stores enter in 130 lines. Admission is corroborated by 10-annotator IAA (Fleiss' kappa = 0.958) and a 77-case external-authored subset (four blind contributors) that replicates the canonicalization asymmetry and amplifies the joint-placement lift (+27.8 pt). Production failures are predominantly forgetting failures rather than recall failures, yet existing benchmarks measure only recall. ForgetEval and all adapters are released under MIT.

  • 1 authors
·
Jun 15

GenDeg: Diffusion-Based Degradation Synthesis for Generalizable All-in-One Image Restoration

Deep learning-based models for All-In-One Image Restoration (AIOR) have achieved significant advancements in recent years. However, their practical applicability is limited by poor generalization to samples outside the training distribution. This limitation arises primarily from insufficient diversity in degradation variations and scenes within existing datasets, resulting in inadequate representations of real-world scenarios. Additionally, capturing large-scale real-world paired data for degradations such as haze, low-light, and raindrops is often cumbersome and sometimes infeasible. In this paper, we leverage the generative capabilities of latent diffusion models to synthesize high-quality degraded images from their clean counterparts. Specifically, we introduce GenDeg, a degradation and intensity-aware conditional diffusion model capable of producing diverse degradation patterns on clean images. Using GenDeg, we synthesize over 550k samples across six degradation types: haze, rain, snow, motion blur, low-light, and raindrops. These generated samples are integrated with existing datasets to form the GenDS dataset, comprising over 750k samples. Our experiments reveal that image restoration models trained on the GenDS dataset exhibit significant improvements in out-of-distribution performance compared to those trained solely on existing datasets. Furthermore, we provide comprehensive analyses on the implications of diffusion model-based synthetic degradations for AIOR. The code will be made publicly available.

  • 4 authors
·
Nov 26, 2024

Separable neural architectures as a primitive for unified predictive and generative intelligence

Intelligent systems across physics, language and perception often exhibit factorisable structure, yet are typically modelled by monolithic neural architectures that do not explicitly exploit this structure. The separable neural architecture (SNA) addresses this by formalising a representational class that unifies additive, quadratic and tensor-decomposed neural models. By constraining interaction order and tensor rank, SNAs impose a structural inductive bias that factorises high-dimensional mappings into low-arity components. Separability need not be a property of the system itself: it often emerges in the coordinates or representations through which the system is expressed. Crucially, this coordinate-aware formulation reveals a structural analogy between chaotic spatiotemporal dynamics and linguistic autoregression. By treating continuous physical states as smooth, separable embeddings, SNAs enable distributional modelling of chaotic systems. This approach mitigates the nonphysical drift characteristics of deterministic operators whilst remaining applicable to discrete sequences. The compositional versatility of this approach is demonstrated across four domains: autonomous waypoint navigation via reinforcement learning, inverse generation of multifunctional microstructures, distributional modelling of turbulent flow and neural language modelling. These results establish the separable neural architecture as a domain-agnostic primitive for predictive and generative intelligence, capable of unifying both deterministic and distributional representations.

  • 5 authors
·
Mar 12

Your Agents Are Aging Too: Agent Lifespan Engineering for Deployed Systems

Long-lived AI agents are increasingly deployed as persistent operational systems, yet they are still evaluated like freshly initialized models. Day-one benchmarks miss a basic systems question: how long does an agent remain reliable after deployment? Even when model weights are frozen, an agent's effective state keeps changing as it compresses interaction history, retrieves from a growing memory store, revises facts after updates, and undergoes routine maintenance. Reliability therefore becomes a lifespan property of the full agent harness, not only a snapshot property of the base model. We introduce AgingBench, a longitudinal reliability benchmark for agent lifespan engineering: measuring not only whether deployed agents degrade, but what form the degradation takes and where repair should target. AgingBench organizes agent aging into four mechanisms: compression aging, interference aging, revision aging, and maintenance aging. To diagnose these failures, AgingBench uses temporal dependency graphs and paired counterfactual probes that produce diagnostic profiles for the write, retrieval, and utilization stages of the memory pipeline. Across 7 scenarios, 14 models, multiple memory policies, and both runner-controlled and autonomous agents, over ~400 runs spanning 8 - 200 sessions show that agent aging is not one-dimensional: behavioral tests can remain clean while factual precision decays; derived-state tracking can collapse sharply within a single model; and the same wrong answer can require different repairs depending on what the diagnostic profile points to. These results suggest that reliable agent deployment requires lifespan evaluation, mechanism-level diagnosis, and stage-targeted repair, not only stronger day-one models.

  • 8 authors
·
May 24 2

Removing Diffraction Image Artifacts in Under-Display Camera via Dynamic Skip Connection Network

Recent development of Under-Display Camera (UDC) systems provides a true bezel-less and notch-free viewing experience on smartphones (and TV, laptops, tablets), while allowing images to be captured from the selfie camera embedded underneath. In a typical UDC system, the microstructure of the semi-transparent organic light-emitting diode (OLED) pixel array attenuates and diffracts the incident light on the camera, resulting in significant image quality degradation. Oftentimes, noise, flare, haze, and blur can be observed in UDC images. In this work, we aim to analyze and tackle the aforementioned degradation problems. We define a physics-based image formation model to better understand the degradation. In addition, we utilize one of the world's first commodity UDC smartphone prototypes to measure the real-world Point Spread Function (PSF) of the UDC system, and provide a model-based data synthesis pipeline to generate realistically degraded images. We specially design a new domain knowledge-enabled Dynamic Skip Connection Network (DISCNet) to restore the UDC images. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method through extensive experiments on both synthetic and real UDC data. Our physics-based image formation model and proposed DISCNet can provide foundations for further exploration in UDC image restoration, and even for general diffraction artifact removal in a broader sense.

  • 6 authors
·
Apr 19, 2021

PerturbDiff: Functional Diffusion for Single-Cell Perturbation Modeling

Building Virtual Cells that can accurately simulate cellular responses to perturbations is a long-standing goal in systems biology. A fundamental challenge is that high-throughput single-cell sequencing is destructive: the same cell cannot be observed both before and after a perturbation. Thus, perturbation prediction requires mapping unpaired control and perturbed populations. Existing models address this by learning maps between distributions, but typically assume a single fixed response distribution when conditioned on observed cellular context (e.g., cell type) and the perturbation type. In reality, responses vary systematically due to unobservable latent factors such as microenvironmental fluctuations and complex batch effects, forming a manifold of possible distributions for the same observed conditions. To account for this variability, we introduce PerturbDiff, which shifts modeling from individual cells to entire distributions. By embedding distributions as points in a Hilbert space, we define a diffusion-based generative process operating directly over probability distributions. This allows PerturbDiff to capture population-level response shifts across hidden factors. Benchmarks on established datasets show that PerturbDiff achieves state-of-the-art performance in single-cell response prediction and generalizes substantially better to unseen perturbations. See our project page (https://katarinayuan.github.io/PerturbDiff-ProjectPage/), where code and data will be made publicly available (https://github.com/DeepGraphLearning/PerturbDiff).

  • 6 authors
·
Feb 22

Designing a Practical Degradation Model for Deep Blind Image Super-Resolution

It is widely acknowledged that single image super-resolution (SISR) methods would not perform well if the assumed degradation model deviates from those in real images. Although several degradation models take additional factors into consideration, such as blur, they are still not effective enough to cover the diverse degradations of real images. To address this issue, this paper proposes to design a more complex but practical degradation model that consists of randomly shuffled blur, downsampling and noise degradations. Specifically, the blur is approximated by two convolutions with isotropic and anisotropic Gaussian kernels; the downsampling is randomly chosen from nearest, bilinear and bicubic interpolations; the noise is synthesized by adding Gaussian noise with different noise levels, adopting JPEG compression with different quality factors, and generating processed camera sensor noise via reverse-forward camera image signal processing (ISP) pipeline model and RAW image noise model. To verify the effectiveness of the new degradation model, we have trained a deep blind ESRGAN super-resolver and then applied it to super-resolve both synthetic and real images with diverse degradations. The experimental results demonstrate that the new degradation model can help to significantly improve the practicability of deep super-resolvers, thus providing a powerful alternative solution for real SISR applications.

  • 4 authors
·
Mar 25, 2021

From HNSW to Information-Theoretic Binarization: Rethinking the Architecture of Scalable Vector Search

Modern semantic search and retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) systems rely predominantly on in-memory approximate nearest neighbor (ANN) indexes over high-precision floating-point vectors, resulting in escalating operational cost and inherent trade-offs between latency, throughput, and retrieval accuracy. This paper analyzes the architectural limitations of the dominant "HNSW + float32 + cosine similarity" stack and evaluates existing cost-reduction strategies, including storage disaggregation and lossy vector quantization, which inevitably sacrifice either performance or accuracy. We introduce and empirically evaluate an alternative information-theoretic architecture based on maximally informative binarization (MIB), efficient bitwise distance metrics, and an information-theoretic scoring (ITS) mechanism. Unlike conventional ANN systems, this approach enables exhaustive search over compact binary representations, allowing deterministic retrieval and eliminating accuracy degradation under high query concurrency. Using the MAIR benchmark across 14 datasets and 10,038 queries, we compare this architecture against Elasticsearch, Pinecone, PGVector, and Qdrant. Results demonstrate retrieval quality comparable to full-precision systems, while achieving substantially lower latency and maintaining constant throughput at high request rates. We show that this architectural shift enables a truly serverless, cost-per-query deployment model, challenging the necessity of large in-memory ANN indexes for high-quality semantic search.

moorcheh Moorcheh.ai
·
Dec 16, 2025

Solving Inverse Problems with FLAIR

Flow-based latent generative models such as Stable Diffusion 3 are able to generate images with remarkable quality, even enabling photorealistic text-to-image generation. Their impressive performance suggests that these models should also constitute powerful priors for inverse imaging problems, but that approach has not yet led to comparable fidelity. There are several key obstacles: (i) the encoding into a lower-dimensional latent space makes the underlying (forward) mapping non-linear; (ii) the data likelihood term is usually intractable; and (iii) learned generative models struggle to recover rare, atypical data modes during inference. We present FLAIR, a novel training free variational framework that leverages flow-based generative models as a prior for inverse problems. To that end, we introduce a variational objective for flow matching that is agnostic to the type of degradation, and combine it with deterministic trajectory adjustments to recover atypical modes. To enforce exact consistency with the observed data, we decouple the optimization of the data fidelity and regularization terms. Moreover, we introduce a time-dependent calibration scheme in which the strength of the regularization is modulated according to off-line accuracy estimates. Results on standard imaging benchmarks demonstrate that FLAIR consistently outperforms existing diffusion- and flow-based methods in terms of reconstruction quality and sample diversity.

  • 6 authors
·
Jun 3, 2025 2

ESAA: Event Sourcing for Autonomous Agents in LLM-Based Software Engineering

Autonomous agents based on Large Language Models (LLMs) have evolved from reactive assistants to systems capable of planning, executing actions via tools, and iterating over environment observations. However, they remain vulnerable to structural limitations: lack of native state, context degradation over long horizons, and the gap between probabilistic generation and deterministic execution requirements. This paper presents the ESAA (Event Sourcing for Autonomous Agents) architecture, which separates the agent's cognitive intention from the project's state mutation, inspired by the Event Sourcing pattern. In ESAA, agents emit only structured intentions in validated JSON (agent.result or issue.report); a deterministic orchestrator validates, persists events in an append-only log (activity.jsonl), applies file-writing effects, and projects a verifiable materialized view (roadmap.json). The proposal incorporates boundary contracts (AGENT_CONTRACT.yaml), metaprompting profiles (PARCER), and replay verification with hashing (esaa verify), ensuring the immutability of completed tasks and forensic traceability. Two case studies validate the architecture: (i) a landing page project (9 tasks, 49 events, single-agent composition) and (ii) a clinical dashboard system (50 tasks, 86 events, 4 concurrent agents across 8 phases), both concluding with run.status=success and verify_status=ok. The multi-agent case study demonstrates real concurrent orchestration with heterogeneous LLMs (Claude Sonnet 4.6, Codex GPT-5, Antigravity/Gemini 3 Pro, and Claude Opus 4.6), providing empirical evidence of the architecture's scalability beyond single-agent scenarios.

  • 1 authors
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Feb 25 1

SymbolicLight V1: Spike-Gated Dual-Path Language Modeling with High Activation Sparsity and Sub-Billion-Scale Pre-Training Evidence

Natively trained spiking language models struggle to combine Transformer-like language quality, stable multi-domain pre-training, and high activation sparsity. We present SymbolicLight V1, a spike-gated dual-path language model that combines binary Leaky Integrate-and-Fire spike dynamics with a continuous residual stream. Its Dual-Path SparseTCAM module replaces dense self-attention with an exponential-decay aggregation path for long-range memory and a spike-gated local attention path for short-range precision, complemented by a dynamic context-conditioned decoding head and a bilingual tokenizer. A 194M-parameter SymbolicLight V1 model trained from scratch on a 3B-token Chinese-English corpus reaches held-out validation PPL 8.88-8.93 across four independent runs at >89% per-element activation sparsity. It trails GPT-2 201M by 7.7% in PPL while surpassing GPT-2 124M under the reported comparison. Component ablations at matched 0.5B-token training budgets show that the spike-gated local attention path is the largest contributor, and that replacing LIF dynamics with a deterministic top-k mask at matched sparsity causes a larger degradation, indicating that temporal integration rather than sparsity alone drives performance. We also report a 0.8B-parameter scale-up run trained on 48.8B tokens as evidence of optimization and sparsity preservation, not as a primary quality comparison. Current dense-hardware inference is slower than GPT-2, so neuromorphic deployment is presented as a future sparsity-driven opportunity rather than an achieved hardware speedup.

  • 1 authors
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May 19

Textual Prompt Guided Image Restoration

Image restoration has always been a cutting-edge topic in the academic and industrial fields of computer vision. Since degradation signals are often random and diverse, "all-in-one" models that can do blind image restoration have been concerned in recent years. Early works require training specialized headers and tails to handle each degradation of concern, which are manually cumbersome. Recent works focus on learning visual prompts from data distribution to identify degradation type. However, the prompts employed in most of models are non-text, lacking sufficient emphasis on the importance of human-in-the-loop. In this paper, an effective textual prompt guided image restoration model has been proposed. In this model, task-specific BERT is fine-tuned to accurately understand user's instructions and generating textual prompt guidance. Depth-wise multi-head transposed attentions and gated convolution modules are designed to bridge the gap between textual prompts and visual features. The proposed model has innovatively introduced semantic prompts into low-level visual domain. It highlights the potential to provide a natural, precise, and controllable way to perform image restoration tasks. Extensive experiments have been done on public denoising, dehazing and deraining datasets. The experiment results demonstrate that, compared with popular state-of-the-art methods, the proposed model can obtain much more superior performance, achieving accurate recognition and removal of degradation without increasing model's complexity. Related source codes and data will be publicly available on github site https://github.com/MoTong-AI-studio/TextPromptIR.

  • 6 authors
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Dec 11, 2023

Evidence Sufficiency Under Delayed Ground Truth: Proxy Monitoring for Risk Decision Systems

Machine learning systems in fraud detection, credit scoring, and clinical risk assessment operate under delayed ground truth: outcome labels arrive days to months after the decision they evaluate. During this blind period, governance evidence degrades through mechanisms that neither drift detection methods nor governance frameworks adequately address. This paper formalizes an evidence sufficiency model with four dimensions (completeness, freshness, reliability, representativeness) and a decision-readiness gate that quantifies how label latency degrades evidence quality. The model maps three drift types to dimension-specific degradation trajectories. A complementary proxy indicator framework comprising seven measurement categories estimates sufficiency degradation without labels, with explicit coverage mapping and characterized blind spots per drift type. Evaluation on the IEEE-CIS Fraud Detection dataset (~590K transactions) with controlled drift injection shows that composite proxy monitoring detects covariate and mixed drift with 100% detection rate, while concept drift without feature change remains undetected -- consistent with the theoretical impossibility of unsupervised detection when P(X) is unchanged. Blind period simulation confirms monotone sufficiency degradation, with concept drift degrading fastest (S=0.242 at day 60 vs 0.418 for no-drift). The framework contributes a governance sufficiency monitoring instrument; its value lies in translating drift signals into auditable sufficiency assessments with characterized blind spots. Mapping sufficiency levels to governance actions requires deployment-specific calibration beyond this study's scope.

  • 1 authors
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Apr 16

Beyond Degradation Conditions: All-in-One Image Restoration via HOG Transformers

All-in-one image restoration, which aims to address diverse degradations within a unified framework, is critical for practical applications. However, existing methods rely on predicting and integrating degradation conditions, which can misactivate degradation-specific features in complex scenarios, limiting their restoration performance. To address this issue, we propose a novel all-in-one image restoration framework guided by Histograms of Oriented Gradients (HOG), named HOGformer. By leveraging the degradation-discriminative capability of HOG descriptors, HOGformer employs a dynamic self-attention mechanism that adaptively attends to long-range spatial dependencies based on degradation-aware HOG cues. To enhance the degradation sensitivity of attention inputs, we design a HOG-guided local dynamic-range convolution module that captures long-range degradation similarities while maintaining awareness of global structural information. Furthermore, we propose a dynamic interaction feed-forward module, efficiently increasing the model capacity to adapt to different degradations through channel-spatial interactions. Extensive experiments across diverse benchmarks, including adverse weather and natural degradations, demonstrate that HOGformer achieves state-of-the-art performance and generalizes effectively to complex real-world degradations. Code is available at https://github.com/Fire-friend/HOGformer.

  • 4 authors
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Apr 12, 2025

Contextual Bandits in Payment Processing: Non-uniform Exploration and Supervised Learning at Adyen

Uniform random exploration in decision-making systems supports off-policy learning via supervision but incurs high regret, making it impractical for many applications. Conversely, non-uniform exploration offers better immediate performance but lacks support for off-policy learning. Recent research suggests that regression oracles can bridge this gap by combining non-uniform exploration with supervised learning. In this paper, we analyze these approaches within a real-world industrial context at Adyen, a large global payments processor characterized by batch logged delayed feedback, short-term memory, and dynamic action spaces under the Empirical Risk Minimization (ERM) framework. Our analysis reveals that while regression oracles significantly improve performance, they introduce challenges due to rigid algorithmic assumptions. Specifically, we observe that as a policy improves, subsequent generations may perform worse due to shifts in the reward distribution and increased class imbalance in the training data. This degradation occurs de spite improvements in other aspects of the training data, leading to decreased performance in successive policy iterations. We further explore the long-term impact of regression oracles, identifying a potential "oscillation effect." This effect arises when regression oracles influence probability estimates and the realizability of subsequent policy models, leading to fluctuations in performance across iterations. Our findings highlight the need for more adaptable algorithms that can leverage the benefits of regression oracles without introducing instability in policy performance over time.

  • 2 authors
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Nov 30, 2024

Deterministic vs. LLM-Controlled Orchestration for COBOL-to-Python Modernization

Modernizing legacy COBOL systems remains difficult due to scarce expertise, large and long-lived codebases, and strict correctness requirements. Recent large language model (LLM)-based modernization systems increasingly rely on agentic workflows in which the model controls multi-step tool execution. However, it remains unclear whether delegating execution control to the LLM improves correctness, robustness, or efficiency in structured software engineering workflows. We present a controlled empirical study of deterministic and LLM-controlled orchestration for COBOL-to-Python modernization. Using a unified experimental framework, we hold the language models, prompts, tools, configurations, and source programs constant while varying only the execution control strategy. This isolates orchestration as the sole experimental variable. We evaluate both approaches using functional correctness, robustness across repeated stochastic runs, and computational efficiency. Across multiple models, deterministic orchestration achieves comparable computational accuracy to LLM-controlled orchestration while improving worst-case robustness and reducing performance variability across runs. Deterministic execution also reduces token consumption by up to 3.5x, leading to substantially lower operational cost. These results suggest that, in structured modernization workflows with explicit validation stages, fixed execution policies provide more stable and cost-efficient behavior than fully agentic orchestration without reducing translation quality.

  • 2 authors
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May 10

ProRes: Exploring Degradation-aware Visual Prompt for Universal Image Restoration

Image restoration aims to reconstruct degraded images, e.g., denoising or deblurring. Existing works focus on designing task-specific methods and there are inadequate attempts at universal methods. However, simply unifying multiple tasks into one universal architecture suffers from uncontrollable and undesired predictions. To address those issues, we explore prompt learning in universal architectures for image restoration tasks. In this paper, we present Degradation-aware Visual Prompts, which encode various types of image degradation, e.g., noise and blur, into unified visual prompts. These degradation-aware prompts provide control over image processing and allow weighted combinations for customized image restoration. We then leverage degradation-aware visual prompts to establish a controllable and universal model for image restoration, called ProRes, which is applicable to an extensive range of image restoration tasks. ProRes leverages the vanilla Vision Transformer (ViT) without any task-specific designs. Furthermore, the pre-trained ProRes can easily adapt to new tasks through efficient prompt tuning with only a few images. Without bells and whistles, ProRes achieves competitive performance compared to task-specific methods and experiments can demonstrate its ability for controllable restoration and adaptation for new tasks. The code and models will be released in https://github.com/leonmakise/ProRes.

  • 6 authors
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Jun 22, 2023

The Devil Behind Moltbook: Anthropic Safety is Always Vanishing in Self-Evolving AI Societies

The emergence of multi-agent systems built from large language models (LLMs) offers a promising paradigm for scalable collective intelligence and self-evolution. Ideally, such systems would achieve continuous self-improvement in a fully closed loop while maintaining robust safety alignment--a combination we term the self-evolution trilemma. However, we demonstrate both theoretically and empirically that an agent society satisfying continuous self-evolution, complete isolation, and safety invariance is impossible. Drawing on an information-theoretic framework, we formalize safety as the divergence degree from anthropic value distributions. We theoretically demonstrate that isolated self-evolution induces statistical blind spots, leading to the irreversible degradation of the system's safety alignment. Empirical and qualitative results from an open-ended agent community (Moltbook) and two closed self-evolving systems reveal phenomena that align with our theoretical prediction of inevitable safety erosion. We further propose several solution directions to alleviate the identified safety concern. Our work establishes a fundamental limit on the self-evolving AI societies and shifts the discourse from symptom-driven safety patches to a principled understanding of intrinsic dynamical risks, highlighting the need for external oversight or novel safety-preserving mechanisms.

  • 13 authors
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Feb 10 9

Self-Aware Object Detection via Degradation Manifolds

Object detectors achieve strong performance under nominal imaging conditions but can fail silently when exposed to blur, noise, compression, adverse weather, or resolution changes. In safety-critical settings, it is therefore insufficient to produce predictions without assessing whether the input remains within the detector's nominal operating regime. We refer to this capability as self-aware object detection. We introduce a degradation-aware self-awareness framework based on degradation manifolds, which explicitly structure a detector's feature space according to image degradation rather than semantic content. Our method augments a standard detection backbone with a lightweight embedding head trained via multi-layer contrastive learning. Images sharing the same degradation composition are pulled together, while differing degradation configurations are pushed apart, yielding a geometrically organized representation that captures degradation type and severity without requiring degradation labels or explicit density modeling. To anchor the learned geometry, we estimate a pristine prototype from clean training embeddings, defining a nominal operating point in representation space. Self-awareness emerges as geometric deviation from this reference, providing an intrinsic, image-level signal of degradation-induced shift that is independent of detection confidence. Extensive experiments on synthetic corruption benchmarks, cross-dataset zero-shot transfer, and natural weather-induced distribution shifts demonstrate strong pristine-degraded separability, consistent behavior across multiple detector architectures, and robust generalization under semantic shift. These results suggest that degradation-aware representation geometry provides a practical and detector-agnostic foundation.

  • 4 authors
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Feb 20

SlopCodeBench: Benchmarking How Coding Agents Degrade Over Long-Horizon Iterative Tasks

Software development is iterative, yet agentic coding benchmarks overwhelmingly evaluate single-shot solutions against complete specifications. Code can pass the test suite but become progressively harder to extend. Recent iterative benchmarks attempt to close this gap, but constrain the agent's design decisions too tightly to faithfully measure how code quality shapes future extensions. We introduce SlopCodeBench, a language-agnostic benchmark comprising 20 problems and 93 checkpoints, in which agents repeatedly extend their own prior solutions under evolving specifications that force architectural decisions without prescribing internal structure. We track two trajectory-level quality signals: verbosity, the fraction of redundant or duplicated code, and structural erosion, the share of complexity mass concentrated in high-complexity functions. No agent solves any problem end-to-end across 11 models; the highest checkpoint solve rate is 17.2%. Quality degrades steadily: erosion rises in 80% of trajectories and verbosity in 89.8%. Against 48 open-source Python repositories, agent code is 2.2x more verbose and markedly more eroded. Tracking 20 of those repositories over time shows that human code stays flat, while agent code deteriorates with each iteration. A prompt-intervention study shows that initial quality can be improved, but it does not halt degradation. These results demonstrate that pass-rate benchmarks systematically undermeasure extension robustness, and that current agents lack the design discipline iterative software development demands.

Dual Degradation Representation for Joint Deraining and Low-Light Enhancement in the Dark

Rain in the dark poses a significant challenge to deploying real-world applications such as autonomous driving, surveillance systems, and night photography. Existing low-light enhancement or deraining methods struggle to brighten low-light conditions and remove rain simultaneously. Additionally, cascade approaches like ``deraining followed by low-light enhancement'' or the reverse often result in problematic rain patterns or overly blurred and overexposed images. To address these challenges, we introduce an end-to-end model called L^{2}RIRNet, designed to manage both low-light enhancement and deraining in real-world settings. Our model features two main components: a Dual Degradation Representation Network (DDR-Net) and a Restoration Network. The DDR-Net independently learns degradation representations for luminance effects in dark areas and rain patterns in light areas, employing dual degradation loss to guide the training process. The Restoration Network restores the degraded image using a Fourier Detail Guidance (FDG) module, which leverages near-rainless detailed images, focusing on texture details in frequency and spatial domains to inform the restoration process. Furthermore, we contribute a dataset containing both synthetic and real-world low-light-rainy images. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our L^{2}RIRNet performs favorably against existing methods in both synthetic and complex real-world scenarios. All the code and dataset can be found in https://github.com/linxin0/Low_light_rainy.

  • 6 authors
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Jun 16, 2024

TraceCoder: A Trace-Driven Multi-Agent Framework for Automated Debugging of LLM-Generated Code

Large Language Models (LLMs) often generate code with subtle but critical bugs, especially for complex tasks. Existing automated repair methods typically rely on superficial pass/fail signals, offering limited visibility into program behavior and hindering precise error localization. In addition, without a way to learn from prior failures, repair processes often fall into repetitive and inefficient cycles. To overcome these challenges, we present TraceCoder, a collaborative multi-agent framework that emulates the observe-analyze-repair process of human experts. The framework first instruments the code with diagnostic probes to capture fine-grained runtime traces, enabling deep insight into its internal execution. It then conducts causal analysis on these traces to accurately identify the root cause of the failure. This process is further enhanced by a novel Historical Lesson Learning Mechanism (HLLM), which distills insights from prior failed repair attempts to inform subsequent correction strategies and prevent recurrence of similar mistakes. To ensure stable convergence, a Rollback Mechanism enforces that each repair iteration constitutes a strict improvement toward the correct solution. Comprehensive experiments across multiple benchmarks show that TraceCoder achieves up to a 34.43\% relative improvement in Pass@1 accuracy over existing advanced baselines. Ablation studies verify the significance of each system component, with the iterative repair process alone contributing a 65.61\% relative gain in accuracy. Furthermore, TraceCoder significantly outperforms leading iterative methods in terms of both accuracy and cost-efficiency.

  • 6 authors
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Feb 6

Early warning signals: The charted and uncharted territories

The realization that complex systems such as ecological communities can collapse or shift regimes suddenly and without rapid external forcing poses a serious challenge to our understanding and management of the natural world. The potential to identify early warning signals that would allow researchers and managers to predict such events before they happen has therefore been an invaluable discovery that offers a way forward in spite of such seemingly unpredictable behavior. Research into early warning signals has demonstrated that it is possible to define and detect such early warning signals in advance of a transition in certain contexts. Here we describe the pattern emerging as research continues to explore just how far we can generalize these results. A core of examples emerges that shares three properties: the phenomenon of rapid regime shifts, a pattern of 'critical slowing down' that can be used to detect the approaching shift, and a mechanism of bifurcation driving the sudden change. As research has expanded beyond these core examples, it is becoming clear that not all systems that show regime shifts exhibit critical slowing down, or vice versa. Even when systems exhibit critical slowing down, statistical detection is a challenge. We review the literature that explores these edge cases and highlight the need for (a) new early warning behaviors that can be used in cases where rapid shifts do not exhibit critical slowing down, (b) the development of methods to identify which behavior might be an appropriate signal when encountering a novel system; bearing in mind that a positive indication for some systems is a negative indication in others, and (c) statistical methods that can distinguish between signatures of early warning behaviors and noise.

  • 3 authors
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May 29, 2013

MOSS: Self-Evolution through Source-Level Rewriting in Autonomous Agent Systems

Autonomous agentic systems are largely static after deployment: they do not learn from user interactions, and recurring failures persist until the next human-driven update ships a fix. Self-evolving agents have emerged in response, but all confine evolution to text-mutable artifacts -- skill files, prompt configurations, memory schemas, workflow graphs -- and leave the agent harness untouched. Since routing, hook ordering, state invariants, and dispatch live in code rather than in any text artifact, an entire class of structural failure is physically unreachable from the text layer. We argue that source-level adaptation is a fundamentally more general medium: it is Turing-complete, a strict superset of every text-mutable scope, takes effect deterministically rather than through base-model compliance, and does not erode under long-context drift. We present MOSS, a system that performs self-rewriting at the source level on production agentic substrates. Each evolution is anchored to an automatically curated batch of production-failure evidence and proceeds through a deterministic multi-stage pipeline; code modification is delegated to a pluggable external coding-agent CLI while MOSS retains stage ordering and verdicts. Candidates are verified by replaying the batch against the candidate image in ephemeral trial workers, then promoted via user-consent-gated, in-place container swap with health-probe-gated rollback. On OpenClaw, MOSS lifts a four-task mean grader score from 0.25 to 0.61 in a single cycle without human intervention.

  • 7 authors
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May 20

A Machine Learning-based Framework for Predictive Maintenance of Semiconductor Laser for Optical Communication

Semiconductor lasers, one of the key components for optical communication systems, have been rapidly evolving to meet the requirements of next generation optical networks with respect to high speed, low power consumption, small form factor etc. However, these demands have brought severe challenges to the semiconductor laser reliability. Therefore, a great deal of attention has been devoted to improving it and thereby ensuring reliable transmission. In this paper, a predictive maintenance framework using machine learning techniques is proposed for real-time heath monitoring and prognosis of semiconductor laser and thus enhancing its reliability. The proposed approach is composed of three stages: i) real-time performance degradation prediction, ii) degradation detection, and iii) remaining useful life (RUL) prediction. First of all, an attention based gated recurrent unit (GRU) model is adopted for real-time prediction of performance degradation. Then, a convolutional autoencoder is used to detect the degradation or abnormal behavior of a laser, given the predicted degradation performance values. Once an abnormal state is detected, a RUL prediction model based on attention-based deep learning is utilized. Afterwards, the estimated RUL is input for decision making and maintenance planning. The proposed framework is validated using experimental data derived from accelerated aging tests conducted for semiconductor tunable lasers. The proposed approach achieves a very good degradation performance prediction capability with a small root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.01, a good anomaly detection accuracy of 94.24% and a better RUL estimation capability compared to the existing ML-based laser RUL prediction models.

  • 3 authors
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Nov 5, 2022

Mechanistic Interpretability of RNNs emulating Hidden Markov Models

Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) provide a powerful approach in neuroscience to infer latent dynamics in neural populations and to generate hypotheses about the neural computations underlying behavior. However, past work has focused on relatively simple, input-driven, and largely deterministic behaviors - little is known about the mechanisms that would allow RNNs to generate the richer, spontaneous, and potentially stochastic behaviors observed in natural settings. Modeling with Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) has revealed a segmentation of natural behaviors into discrete latent states with stochastic transitions between them, a type of dynamics that may appear at odds with the continuous state spaces implemented by RNNs. Here we first show that RNNs can replicate HMM emission statistics and then reverse-engineer the trained networks to uncover the mechanisms they implement. In the absence of inputs, the activity of trained RNNs collapses towards a single fixed point. When driven by stochastic input, trajectories instead exhibit noise-sustained dynamics along closed orbits. Rotation along these orbits modulates the emission probabilities and is governed by transitions between regions of slow, noise-driven dynamics connected by fast, deterministic transitions. The trained RNNs develop highly structured connectivity, with a small set of "kick neurons" initiating transitions between these regions. This mechanism emerges during training as the network shifts into a regime of stochastic resonance, enabling it to perform probabilistic computations. Analyses across multiple HMM architectures - fully connected, cyclic, and linear-chain - reveal that this solution generalizes through the modular reuse of the same dynamical motif, suggesting a compositional principle by which RNNs can emulate complex discrete latent dynamics.

  • 5 authors
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Oct 29, 2025

A Trace-Based Assurance Framework for Agentic AI Orchestration: Contracts, Testing, and Governance

In Agentic AI, Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly used in the orchestration layer to coordinate multiple agents and to interact with external services, retrieval components, and shared memory. In this setting, failures are not limited to incorrect final outputs. They also arise from long-horizon interaction, stochastic decisions, and external side effects (such as API calls, database writes, and message sends). Common failures include non-termination, role drift, propagation of unsupported claims, and attacks via untrusted context or external channels. This paper presents an assurance framework for such Agentic AI systems. Executions are instrumented as Message-Action Traces (MAT) with explicit step and trace contracts. Contracts provide machine-checkable verdicts, localize the first violating step, and support deterministic replay. The framework includes stress testing, formulated as a budgeted counterexample search over bounded perturbations. It also supports structured fault injection at service, retrieval, and memory boundaries to assess containment under realistic operational faults and degraded conditions. Finally, governance is treated as a runtime component, enforcing per-agent capability limits and action mediation (allow, rewrite, block) at the language-to-action boundary. To support comparative evaluations across stochastic seeds, models, and orchestration configurations, the paper defines trace-based metrics for task success, termination reliability, contract compliance, factuality indicators, containment rate, and governance outcome distributions. More broadly, the framework is intended as a common abstraction to support testing and evaluation of multi-agent LLM systems, and to facilitate reproducible comparison across orchestration designs and configurations.

  • 3 authors
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Mar 17

STORI: A Benchmark and Taxonomy for Stochastic Environments

Reinforcement learning (RL) techniques have achieved impressive performance on simulated benchmarks such as Atari100k, yet recent advances remain largely confined to simulation and show limited transfer to real-world domains. A central obstacle is environmental stochasticity, as real systems involve noisy observations, unpredictable dynamics, and non-stationary conditions that undermine the stability of current methods. Existing benchmarks rarely capture these uncertainties and favor simplified settings where algorithms can be tuned to succeed. The absence of a well-defined taxonomy of stochasticity further complicates evaluation, as robustness to one type of stochastic perturbation, such as sticky actions, does not guarantee robustness to other forms of uncertainty. To address this critical gap, we introduce STORI (STOchastic-ataRI), a benchmark that systematically incorporates diverse stochastic effects and enables rigorous evaluation of RL techniques under different forms of uncertainty. We propose a comprehensive five-type taxonomy of environmental stochasticity and demonstrate systematic vulnerabilities in state-of-the-art model-based RL algorithms through targeted evaluation of DreamerV3 and STORM. Our findings reveal that world models dramatically underestimate environmental variance, struggle with action corruption, and exhibit unreliable dynamics under partial observability. We release the code and benchmark publicly at https://github.com/ARY2260/stori, providing a unified framework for developing more robust RL systems.

  • 3 authors
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Sep 1, 2025

Understanding Warmup-Stable-Decay Learning Rates: A River Valley Loss Landscape Perspective

Training language models currently requires pre-determining a fixed compute budget because the typical cosine learning rate schedule depends on the total number of steps. In contrast, the Warmup-Stable-Decay (WSD) schedule uses a constant learning rate to produce a main branch of iterates that can in principle continue indefinitely without a pre-specified compute budget. Then, given any compute budget, one can branch out from the main branch at a proper time with a rapidly decaying learning rate to produce a strong model. Empirically, WSD generates a non-traditional loss curve: the loss remains elevated during the stable phase but sharply declines during the decay phase. Towards explaining this phenomenon, we conjecture that pretraining loss exhibits a river valley landscape, which resembles a deep valley with a river at its bottom. Under this assumption, we show that during the stable phase, the iterate undergoes large oscillations due to the high learning rate, yet it progresses swiftly along the river. During the decay phase, the rapidly dropping learning rate minimizes the iterate's oscillations, moving it closer to the river and revealing true optimization progress. Therefore, the sustained high learning rate phase and fast decaying phase are responsible for progress in the river and the mountain directions respectively, and are both critical. Our analysis predicts phenomenons consistent with empirical observations and shows that this landscape can emerge from pretraining on a simple bi-gram dataset. Inspired by the theory, we introduce WSD-S, a variant of WSD that reuses previous checkpoints' decay phases and keeps only one main branch, where we resume from a decayed checkpoint. WSD-S empirically outperforms WSD and Cyclic-Cosine in obtaining multiple language model checkpoints across various compute budgets in a single run for parameters scaling from 0.1B to 1.2B.

  • 6 authors
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Oct 7, 2024

Quantum Reservoir Computing for Corrosion Prediction in Aerospace: A Hybrid Approach for Enhanced Material Degradation Forecasting

The prediction of material degradation is an important problem to solve in many industries. Environmental conditions, such as humidity and temperature, are important drivers of degradation processes, with corrosion being one of the most prominent ones. Quantum machine learning is a promising research field but suffers from well known deficits such as barren plateaus and measurement overheads. To address this problem, recent research has examined quantum reservoir computing to address time-series prediction tasks. Although a promising idea, developing circuits that are expressive enough while respecting the limited depths available on current devices is challenging. In classical reservoir computing, the onion echo state network model (ESN) [https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-72359-9_9] was introduced to increase the interpretability of the representation structure of the embeddings. This onion ESN model utilizes a concatenation of smaller reservoirs that describe different time scales by covering different regions of the eigenvalue spectrum. Here, we use the same idea in the realm of quantum reservoir computing by simultaneously evolving smaller quantum reservoirs to better capture all the relevant time-scales while keeping the circuit depth small. We do this by modifying the rotation angles which we show alters the eigenvalues of the quantum evolution, but also note that modifying the number of mid-circuit measurements accomplishes the same goals of changing the long-term or short-term memory. This onion QRC outperforms a simple model and a single classical reservoir for predicting the degradation of aluminum alloys in different environmental conditions. By combining the onion QRC with an additional classical reservoir layer, the prediction accuracy is further improved.

  • 8 authors
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May 28, 2025 1

Autoregressive Hidden Markov Models with partial knowledge on latent space applied to aero-engines prognostics

[This paper was initially published in PHME conference in 2016, selected for further publication in International Journal of Prognostics and Health Management.] This paper describes an Autoregressive Partially-hidden Markov model (ARPHMM) for fault detection and prognostics of equipments based on sensors' data. It is a particular dynamic Bayesian network that allows to represent the dynamics of a system by means of a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) and an autoregressive (AR) process. The Markov chain assumes that the system is switching back and forth between internal states while the AR process ensures a temporal coherence on sensor measurements. A sound learning procedure of standard ARHMM based on maximum likelihood allows to iteratively estimate all parameters simultaneously. This paper suggests a modification of the learning procedure considering that one may have prior knowledge about the structure which becomes partially hidden. The integration of the prior is based on the Theory of Weighted Distributions which is compatible with the Expectation-Maximization algorithm in the sense that the convergence properties are still satisfied. We show how to apply this model to estimate the remaining useful life based on health indicators. The autoregressive parameters can indeed be used for prediction while the latent structure can be used to get information about the degradation level. The interest of the proposed method for prognostics and health assessment is demonstrated on CMAPSS datasets.

  • 4 authors
·
May 1, 2021

Scaling Laws and Interpretability of Learning from Repeated Data

Recent large language models have been trained on vast datasets, but also often on repeated data, either intentionally for the purpose of upweighting higher quality data, or unintentionally because data deduplication is not perfect and the model is exposed to repeated data at the sentence, paragraph, or document level. Some works have reported substantial negative performance effects of this repeated data. In this paper we attempt to study repeated data systematically and to understand its effects mechanistically. To do this, we train a family of models where most of the data is unique but a small fraction of it is repeated many times. We find a strong double descent phenomenon, in which repeated data can lead test loss to increase midway through training. A predictable range of repetition frequency leads to surprisingly severe degradation in performance. For instance, performance of an 800M parameter model can be degraded to that of a 2x smaller model (400M params) by repeating 0.1% of the data 100 times, despite the other 90% of the training tokens remaining unique. We suspect there is a range in the middle where the data can be memorized and doing so consumes a large fraction of the model's capacity, and this may be where the peak of degradation occurs. Finally, we connect these observations to recent mechanistic interpretability work - attempting to reverse engineer the detailed computations performed by the model - by showing that data repetition disproportionately damages copying and internal structures associated with generalization, such as induction heads, providing a possible mechanism for the shift from generalization to memorization. Taken together, these results provide a hypothesis for why repeating a relatively small fraction of data in large language models could lead to disproportionately large harms to performance.

  • 18 authors
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May 20, 2022