Daily Papers

The release of nuPlan marks a new era in vehicle motion planning research, offering the first large-scale real-world dataset and evaluation schemes requiring both precise short-term planning and long-horizon ego-forecasting. Existing systems struggle to simultaneously meet both requirements. Indeed, we find that these tasks are fundamentally misaligned and should be addressed independently. We further assess the current state of closed-loop planning in the field, revealing the limitations of learning-based methods in complex real-world scenarios and the value of simple rule-based priors such as centerline selection through lane graph search algorithms. More surprisingly, for the open-loop sub-task, we observe that the best results are achieved when using only this centerline as scene context (\ie, ignoring all information regarding the map and other agents). Combining these insights, we propose an extremely simple and efficient planner which outperforms an extensive set of competitors, winning the nuPlan planning challenge 2023.

Perceiving multimodal cues and forecasting fine-grained actions from an egocentric (Ego) perspective is vital for applications like robot manipulation. However, previous studies either rely mainly on under-informed visual inputs to predict coarse human motions or follow the VRM/VLA paradigm, which suffers from insufficient robot data and the gap between human and robot embodiments. We observe that 3D hand pose naturally serves as a unified representation to bridge human-robot actions. Hence, we investigate an under-explored Vision-Language guided Egocentric 3D Hand Pose Forecasting (VL-EHPF) task, which aims to predict future Ego 3D hand poses from visual observations, a language instruction, and pose states. To overcome the limited field-of-view and highly dynamic motions in the Ego view, we propose a framework dubbed Exo2EgoPose, which innovatively leverages holistic and stable exocentric (Exo) demonstrations as guidance to compensate for partial and dynamic Ego-view cues. Specifically, we introduce a Dual-level Exocentric Reconstruction Module (DERM), which incorporates the paired Exo videos as supervision to reconstruct their video-level and chunked frame-level representations, thereby modeling spatial contexts and temporal dynamics. Then, the Global-to-Local Modulation Module (GLMM) utilizes the reconstructed hierarchical Exo representations for progressive feature refinement via attention mechanisms and adaptive modulation, enabling comprehensive Exo guidance for accurate Ego hand pose forecasting. Extensive experiments on AssemblyHands, Ego-Exo4D, and our newly constructed EgoMe-pose benchmarks show the superiority of our method, which outperforms state-of-the-art methods by a large margin. Moreover, it demonstrates an effective human-to-robot transfer capability and yields improvements on the CALVIN dataset. Code will be released.

Predicting future human behavior from egocentric videos is a challenging but critical task for human intention understanding. Existing methods for forecasting 2D hand positions rely on visual representations and mainly focus on hand-object interactions. In this paper, we investigate the hand forecasting task and tackle two significant issues that persist in the existing methods: (1) 2D hand positions in future frames are severely affected by ego-motions in egocentric videos; (2) prediction based on visual information tends to overfit to background or scene textures, posing a challenge for generalization on novel scenes or human behaviors. To solve the aforementioned problems, we propose EMAG, an ego-motion-aware and generalizable 2D hand forecasting method. In response to the first problem, we propose a method that considers ego-motion, represented by a sequence of homography matrices of two consecutive frames. We further leverage modalities such as optical flow, trajectories of hands and interacting objects, and ego-motions, thereby alleviating the second issue. Extensive experiments on two large-scale egocentric video datasets, Ego4D and EPIC-Kitchens 55, verify the effectiveness of the proposed method. In particular, our model outperforms prior methods by 1.7% and 7.0% on intra and cross-dataset evaluations, respectively. Project page: https://masashi-hatano.github.io/EMAG/

Human actions involving hand manipulations are structured according to the making and breaking of hand-object contact, and human visual understanding of action is reliant on anticipation of contact as is demonstrated by pioneering work in cognitive science. Taking inspiration from this, we introduce representations and models centered on contact, which we then use in action prediction and anticipation. We annotate a subset of the EPIC Kitchens dataset to include time-to-contact between hands and objects, as well as segmentations of hands and objects. Using these annotations we train the Anticipation Module, a module producing Contact Anticipation Maps and Next Active Object Segmentations - novel low-level representations providing temporal and spatial characteristics of anticipated near future action. On top of the Anticipation Module we apply Egocentric Object Manipulation Graphs (Ego-OMG), a framework for action anticipation and prediction. Ego-OMG models longer term temporal semantic relations through the use of a graph modeling transitions between contact delineated action states. Use of the Anticipation Module within Ego-OMG produces state-of-the-art results, achieving 1st and 2nd place on the unseen and seen test sets, respectively, of the EPIC Kitchens Action Anticipation Challenge, and achieving state-of-the-art results on the tasks of action anticipation and action prediction over EPIC Kitchens. We perform ablation studies over characteristics of the Anticipation Module to evaluate their utility.

Accurately estimating and forecasting human body pose is important for enhancing the user's sense of immersion in Augmented Reality. Addressing this need, our paper introduces EgoCast, a bimodal method for 3D human pose forecasting using egocentric videos and proprioceptive data. We study the task of human pose forecasting in a realistic setting, extending the boundaries of temporal forecasting in dynamic scenes and building on the current framework for current pose estimation in the wild. We introduce a current-frame estimation module that generates pseudo-groundtruth poses for inference, eliminating the need for past groundtruth poses typically required by current methods during forecasting. Our experimental results on the recent Ego-Exo4D and Aria Digital Twin datasets validate EgoCast for real-life motion estimation. On the Ego-Exo4D Body Pose 2024 Challenge, our method significantly outperforms the state-of-the-art approaches, laying the groundwork for future research in human pose estimation and forecasting in unscripted activities with egocentric inputs.

Autonomous driving systems depend on on models that can reason about high-level scene contexts and accurately predict the dynamics of their surrounding environment. Vision- Language Models (VLMs) have recently emerged as promising tools for decision-making and scene understanding, offering strong capabilities in contextual reasoning. However, their limited spatial comprehension constrains their effectiveness as end-to-end driving models. World Models (WM) internalize environmental dynamics to predict future scene evolution. Recently explored as ego-motion predictors and foundation models for autonomous driving, they represent a promising direction for addressing key challenges in the field, particularly enhancing generalization while maintaining dynamic prediction. To leverage the complementary strengths of context-based decision making and prediction, we propose WorldVLM: A hybrid architecture that unifies VLMs and WMs. In our design, the high-level VLM generates behavior commands to guide the driving WM, enabling interpretable and context-aware actions. We evaluate conditioning strategies and provide insights into the hybrid design challenges.

Forecasting hand motion and pose from an egocentric perspective is essential for understanding human intention. However, existing methods focus solely on predicting positions without considering articulation, and only when the hands are visible in the field of view. This limitation overlooks the fact that approximate hand positions can still be inferred even when they are outside the camera's view. In this paper, we propose a method to forecast the 3D trajectories and poses of both hands from an egocentric video, both in and out of the field of view. We propose a diffusion-based transformer architecture for Egocentric Hand Forecasting, EgoH4, which takes as input the observation sequence and camera poses, then predicts future 3D motion and poses for both hands of the camera wearer. We leverage full-body pose information, allowing other joints to provide constraints on hand motion. We denoise the hand and body joints along with a visibility predictor for hand joints and a 3D-to-2D reprojection loss that minimizes the error when hands are in-view. We evaluate EgoH4 on the Ego-Exo4D dataset, combining subsets with body and hand annotations. We train on 156K sequences and evaluate on 34K sequences, respectively. EgoH4 improves the performance by 3.4cm and 5.1cm over the baseline in terms of ADE for hand trajectory forecasting and MPJPE for hand pose forecasting. Project page: https://masashi-hatano.github.io/EgoH4/

Anticipating human motion from an egocentric perspective is fundamental for proactive assistance in AR/VR, human-robot collaboration, and embodied AI. While recent works incorporate language as a semantic prior to reduce the ill-posed nature of egocentric forecasting, they largely neglect the 3D spatial and semantic context that governs how motion unfolds, and treat pose and language prediction as separate inference streams. We introduce Ego3DLM, built on two core principles: accurate motion forecasting requires explicit spatial and semantic understanding of the 3D environment, and pose and language must be predicted holistically in a single pass, since motion is inherently tied to the semantic interpretation of actions being performed. Given three-point tracking, 3D scene features, and egocentric video, Ego3DLM simultaneously decodes past pose, future pose, past narration, and future narration in a single autoregressive pass, grounding predicted poses and descriptions in one another to enforce cross-modal and temporal consistency. We adopt a three-stage training scheme: (1) spatial-semantic scene awareness pretraining; (2) holistic instruction tuning over all four outputs in a single pass; and (3) GRPO-based reinforcement finetuning with intra- and inter-modal rewards that directly optimize pose-language fidelity. Experiments on the Nymeria benchmark demonstrate that Ego3DLM achieves state-of-the-art performance across future motion prediction, past motion tracking, and motion description, showing that 3D scene grounding and holistic cross-modal prediction yield physically plausible and semantically coherent motion forecasts. The project page is available at https://jaewoo97.github.io/Ego3DLM/.

Reliable trajectory prediction from an ego-centric perspective is crucial for robotic navigation in human-centric environments. However, existing methods typically assume noiseless observation histories, failing to account for the perceptual artifacts inherent in first-person vision, such as occlusions, ID switches, and tracking drift. This discrepancy between training assumptions and deployment reality severely limits model robustness. To bridge this gap, we introduce EgoTraj-Bench, built upon TBD dataset, which is the first real-world benchmark that aligns noisy, first-person visual histories with clean, bird's-eye-view future trajectories, enabling robust learning under realistic perceptual constraints. Building on this benchmark, we propose BiFlow, a dual-stream flow matching model that concurrently denoises historical observations and forecasts future motion. To better model agent intent, BiFlow incorporates our EgoAnchor mechanism, which conditions the prediction decoder on distilled historical features via feature modulation. Extensive experiments show that BiFlow achieves state-of-the-art performance, reducing minADE and minFDE by 10-15% on average and demonstrating superior robustness. We anticipate that our benchmark and model will provide a critical foundation for robust real-world ego-centric trajectory prediction. The benchmark library is available at: https://github.com/zoeyliu1999/EgoTraj-Bench.

In trajectory forecasting tasks for traffic, future output trajectories can be computed by advancing the ego vehicle's state with predicted actions according to a kinematics model. By unrolling predicted trajectories via time integration and models of kinematic dynamics, predicted trajectories should not only be kinematically feasible but also relate uncertainty from one timestep to the next. While current works in probabilistic prediction do incorporate kinematic priors for mean trajectory prediction, variance is often left as a learnable parameter, despite uncertainty in one time step being inextricably tied to uncertainty in the previous time step. In this paper, we show simple and differentiable analytical approximations describing the relationship between variance at one timestep and that at the next with the kinematic bicycle model. These approximations can be easily incorporated with negligible additional overhead into any existing trajectory forecasting framework utilizing probabilistic predictions, whether it is autoregressive or one-shot prediction. In our results, we find that encoding the relationship between variance across timesteps works especially well in unoptimal settings, such as with small or noisy datasets. We observe up to a 50% performance boost in partial dataset settings and up to an 8% performance boost in large-scale learning compared to previous kinematic prediction methods on SOTA trajectory forecasting architectures out-of-the-box, with no fine-tuning. In this paper, we show four analytical formulations of probabilistic kinematic priors which can be used for any Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM)-based deep learning models, quantify the error bound on linear approximations applied during trajectory unrolling, and show results to evaluate each formulation in trajectory forecasting.

We study the empirical scaling laws of a family of encoder-decoder autoregressive transformer models on the task of joint motion forecasting and planning in the autonomous driving domain. Using a 500 thousand hours driving dataset, we demonstrate that, similar to language modeling, model performance improves as a power-law function of the total compute budget, and we observe a strong correlation between model training loss and model evaluation metrics. Most interestingly, closed-loop metrics also improve with scaling, which has important implications for the suitability of open-loop metrics for model development and hill climbing. We also study the optimal scaling of the number of transformer parameters and the training data size for a training compute-optimal model. We find that as the training compute budget grows, optimal scaling requires increasing the model size 1.5x as fast as the dataset size. We also study inference-time compute scaling, where we observe that sampling and clustering the output of smaller models makes them competitive with larger models, up to a crossover point beyond which a larger models becomes more inference-compute efficient. Overall, our experimental results demonstrate that optimizing the training and inference-time scaling properties of motion forecasting and planning models is a key lever for improving their performance to address a wide variety of driving scenarios. Finally, we briefly study the utility of training on general logged driving data of other agents to improve the performance of the ego-agent, an important research area to address the scarcity of robotics data for large capacity models training.

Motion forecasting is an essential task for autonomous driving, and utilizing information from infrastructure and other vehicles can enhance forecasting capabilities. Existing research mainly focuses on leveraging single-frame cooperative information to enhance the limited perception capability of the ego vehicle, while underutilizing the motion and interaction context of traffic participants observed from cooperative devices. In this paper, we propose a forecasting-oriented representation paradigm to utilize motion and interaction features from cooperative information. Specifically, we present V2X-Graph, a representative framework to achieve interpretable and end-to-end trajectory feature fusion for cooperative motion forecasting. V2X-Graph is evaluated on V2X-Seq in vehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I) scenarios. To further evaluate on vehicle-to-everything (V2X) scenario, we construct the first real-world V2X motion forecasting dataset V2X-Traj, which contains multiple autonomous vehicles and infrastructure in every scenario. Experimental results on both V2X-Seq and V2X-Traj show the advantage of our method. We hope both V2X-Graph and V2X-Traj will benefit the further development of cooperative motion forecasting. Find the project at https://github.com/AIR-THU/V2X-Graph.

Reasoning about human motion is an important prerequisite to safe and socially-aware robotic navigation. As a result, multi-agent behavior prediction has become a core component of modern human-robot interactive systems, such as self-driving cars. While there exist many methods for trajectory forecasting, most do not enforce dynamic constraints and do not account for environmental information (e.g., maps). Towards this end, we present Trajectron++, a modular, graph-structured recurrent model that forecasts the trajectories of a general number of diverse agents while incorporating agent dynamics and heterogeneous data (e.g., semantic maps). Trajectron++ is designed to be tightly integrated with robotic planning and control frameworks; for example, it can produce predictions that are optionally conditioned on ego-agent motion plans. We demonstrate its performance on several challenging real-world trajectory forecasting datasets, outperforming a wide array of state-of-the-art deterministic and generative methods.

Forecasting future 3D hand pose sequences from egocentric video is essential for understanding human intention and enabling embodied applications such as AR/VR assistance and human-robot interaction. However, this task remains a highly challenging problem because egocentric hand motion is driven by complex human intent, exhibits highly dexterous articulations, and is observed under drastic viewpoint shifts induced by ego-motion. In this work, we introduce EggHand, a foundation-model-based framework for egocentric hand pose forecasting that unifies multimodal semantic reasoning with dynamic motion modeling. Our approach couples an action decoder from a Vision-Language-Action (VLA) model, which captures the structured temporal dynamics of hand motion, with an egocentric video-text encoder that provides viewpoint-aware contextual information learned from large-scale first-person video. Together, these components overcome the brittleness of generic visual encoders under ego-motion and enable joint reasoning over motion, context, and high-level intent-without relying on body pose or external tracking. Experiments on the EgoExo4D dataset show that EggHand sets a new state of the art in forecasting accuracy, remains robust under severe ego-motion, and further enables controllable prediction via language-based task prompts. Project page: https://jyoun9.github.io/EggHand

We propose CARFF: Conditional Auto-encoded Radiance Field for 3D Scene Forecasting, a method for predicting future 3D scenes given past observations, such as 2D ego-centric images. Our method maps an image to a distribution over plausible 3D latent scene configurations using a probabilistic encoder, and predicts the evolution of the hypothesized scenes through time. Our latent scene representation conditions a global Neural Radiance Field (NeRF) to represent a 3D scene model, which enables explainable predictions and straightforward downstream applications. This approach extends beyond previous neural rendering work by considering complex scenarios of uncertainty in environmental states and dynamics. We employ a two-stage training of Pose-Conditional-VAE and NeRF to learn 3D representations. Additionally, we auto-regressively predict latent scene representations as a partially observable Markov decision process, utilizing a mixture density network. We demonstrate the utility of our method in realistic scenarios using the CARLA driving simulator, where CARFF can be used to enable efficient trajectory and contingency planning in complex multi-agent autonomous driving scenarios involving visual occlusions.

Self-supervised pre-training based on next-token prediction has enabled large language models to capture the underlying structure of text, and has led to unprecedented performance on a large array of tasks when applied at scale. Similarly, autonomous driving generates vast amounts of spatiotemporal data, alluding to the possibility of harnessing scale to learn the underlying geometric and semantic structure of the environment and its evolution over time. In this direction, we propose a geometric and semantic self-supervised pre-training method, GASP, that learns a unified representation by predicting, at any queried future point in spacetime, (1) general occupancy, capturing the evolving structure of the 3D scene; (2) ego occupancy, modeling the ego vehicle path through the environment; and (3) distilled high-level features from a vision foundation model. By modeling geometric and semantic 4D occupancy fields instead of raw sensor measurements, the model learns a structured, generalizable representation of the environment and its evolution through time. We validate GASP on multiple autonomous driving benchmarks, demonstrating significant improvements in semantic occupancy forecasting, online mapping, and ego trajectory prediction. Our results demonstrate that continuous 4D geometric and semantic occupancy prediction provides a scalable and effective pre-training paradigm for autonomous driving. For code and additional visualizations, see \href{https://research.zenseact.com/publications/gasp/.

Understanding world dynamics is crucial for planning in autonomous driving. Recent methods attempt to achieve this by learning a 3D occupancy world model that forecasts future surrounding scenes based on current observation. However, 3D occupancy labels are still required to produce promising results. Considering the high annotation cost for 3D outdoor scenes, we propose a semi-supervised vision-centric 3D occupancy world model, PreWorld, to leverage the potential of 2D labels through a novel two-stage training paradigm: the self-supervised pre-training stage and the fully-supervised fine-tuning stage. Specifically, during the pre-training stage, we utilize an attribute projection head to generate different attribute fields of a scene (e.g., RGB, density, semantic), thus enabling temporal supervision from 2D labels via volume rendering techniques. Furthermore, we introduce a simple yet effective state-conditioned forecasting module to recursively forecast future occupancy and ego trajectory in a direct manner. Extensive experiments on the nuScenes dataset validate the effectiveness and scalability of our method, and demonstrate that PreWorld achieves competitive performance across 3D occupancy prediction, 4D occupancy forecasting and motion planning tasks.

A well-known dilemma in large vision-language models (e.g., GPT-4, LLaVA) is that while increasing the number of vision tokens generally enhances visual understanding, it also significantly raises memory and computational costs, especially in long-term, dense video frame streaming scenarios. Although learnable approaches like Q-Former and Perceiver Resampler have been developed to reduce the vision token burden, they overlook the context causally modeled by LLMs (i.e., key-value cache), potentially leading to missed visual cues when addressing user queries. In this paper, we introduce a novel approach to reduce vision compute by leveraging redundant vision tokens "skipping layers" rather than decreasing the number of vision tokens. Our method, VideoLLM-MoD, is inspired by mixture-of-depths LLMs and addresses the challenge of numerous vision tokens in long-term or streaming video. Specifically, for each transformer layer, we learn to skip the computation for a high proportion (e.g., 80\%) of vision tokens, passing them directly to the next layer. This approach significantly enhances model efficiency, achieving approximately \textasciitilde42\% time and \textasciitilde30\% memory savings for the entire training. Moreover, our method reduces the computation in the context and avoid decreasing the vision tokens, thus preserving or even improving performance compared to the vanilla model. We conduct extensive experiments to demonstrate the effectiveness of VideoLLM-MoD, showing its state-of-the-art results on multiple benchmarks, including narration, forecasting, and summarization tasks in COIN, Ego4D, and Ego-Exo4D datasets.