Daily Papers

Open-vocabulary long-horizon manipulation requires robots to reason over flexible instructions and complex multi-object scenes while adaptively planning, executing, monitoring, and recovering from failures. We address these demands with a closed agent loop in which a VLM orchestrates heterogeneous robot capabilities as interruptible tools. Unlike in virtual AI agents, the timing of decisions, actions and tool calls is important in a physical world that does not pause for reasoning. We refer to this setting as Physical Orchestration, and propose VoLoAgent, a VLM that plans, monitors, and recovers by treating a VLA/WAM as an interruptible tool it steers mid-rollout alongside vision models and action primitives. To evaluate these long-horizon capabilities, we introduce RoboVoLo, a high-fidelity benchmark for open-vocabulary long-horizon manipulation across common sense, memory/state tracking, complex references, and world knowledge, with both task-level success and failure-mode diagnostics. Experiments show VoLoAgent substantially outperforms single VLA/VLM or tool-based systems, with validation on real-robot experiments. Project page: https://chicychen.github.io/VoLo/

Rubric-based evaluation is widely used in LLM benchmarks and training pipelines for open-ended, less verifiable tasks. While prior work has demonstrated the effectiveness of rubrics using downstream signals such as reinforcement learning outcomes, there remains no principled way to diagnose how a rubric itself fails from such aggregated or downstream signals alone. To address this gap, we introduce RIFT: RubrIc Failure mode Taxonomy, a taxonomy for systematically characterizing failure modes in rubric composition and design. RIFT consists of eight failure modes organized into three high-level categories: Reliability Failures, Content Validity Failures, and Consequential Validity Failures. RIFT is developed using grounded theory by iteratively annotating rubrics drawn from five diverse data sources spanning general instruction following, code generation, creative writing, and expert-level deep research, until no new failure modes are identified. We evaluate the consistency of the taxonomy by measuring agreement among independent human annotators, observing fair agreement overall (87% pairwise agreement and 0.64 average Cohen's kappa). Finally, to support scalable diagnosis, we propose automated rubric quality metrics and show that they align with human failure-mode annotations, achieving up to 0.925 F1.

Self-distillation is a promising recipe for self-improvement in language models. In this setting, a model can serve as its own teacher when given privileged information, such as a solution to a math problem. This seems especially appealing for thinking models, which can use test-time reasoning to absorb the privileged information. Surprisingly, we show that privileged self-distillation degrades thinking models on long reasoning traces: across five Qwen3 and OLMo thinking models evaluated on AIME24, AIME25, and HMMT25, privileged-context distillation causes a relative drop of up to 17% in avg@16 accuracy. The degradation scales with the amount of privileged context withheld from the student and is most pronounced at long rollout budgets, where thinking models otherwise obtain their largest gains. This failure mode is not specific to self-distillation: on-policy distillation (OPD) improves thinking models, but privileged OPD reverses these gains. Our diagnostics link this failure mode to how privileged teacher context reshapes learning at high-entropy forking positions, where multiple continuations remain plausible and may lead to different reasoning paths. Privileged context lowers fork rates in thinking-model rollouts but not in instruction-model rollouts. This leads to an interesting dichotomy, where privileged context can help instruction-tuned models but hurts stronger thinking models. The effect is visible when the student begins a self-correction branch, where privileged OPD penalizes sampled reconsideration tokens that vanilla OPD supports. Thinking models trained with a privileged teacher produce fewer verification, backtracking, and hedging markers, even after length normalization. These findings indicate that self-distillation for strong thinking models requires attention to token-level signal, especially around correction and reasoning steps.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly explored as scalable tools for mental health counseling, yet evaluating their safety remains challenging due to the interactional and context-dependent nature of clinical harm. Existing evaluation frameworks predominantly assess isolated responses using coarse-grained taxonomies or static datasets, limiting their ability to diagnose how harms emerge and accumulate over multi-turn counseling interactions. In this work, we introduce R-MHSafe, a role-aware mental health safety taxonomy that characterizes clinically significant harm in terms of the interactional roles an AI counselor adopts, including perpetrator, instigator, facilitator, or enabler, combined with clinically grounded harm categories. Then, we propose MHSafeEval, a closed-loop, agent-based evaluation framework that formulates safety assessment as trajectory-level discovery of harm through adversarial multi-turn interactions, guided by role-aware modeling. Using R-MHSafe and MHSafeEval, we conduct a large-scale evaluation across state-of-the-art LLMs. Our results reveal substantial role-dependent and cumulative safety failures that are systematically missed by existing static benchmarks, and show that our framework significantly improves failure-mode coverage and diagnostic granularity.

The rapid progress of text-to-image (T2I) models has unlocked unprecedented creative potential, yet their ability to faithfully render complex prompts involving multiple objects, attributes, and spatial relationships remains a significant bottleneck. Progress is hampered by a lack of adequate evaluation methods; current benchmarks are often restricted to closed-set vocabularies, lack fine-grained diagnostic capabilities, and fail to provide the interpretable feedback necessary to diagnose and remedy specific compositional failures. We solve these challenges by introducing SANEval (Spatial, Attribute, and Numeracy Evaluation), a comprehensive benchmark that establishes a scalable new pipeline for open-vocabulary compositional evaluation. SANEval combines a large language model (LLM) for deep prompt understanding with an LLM-enhanced, open-vocabulary object detector to robustly evaluate compositional adherence, unconstrained by a fixed vocabulary. Through extensive experiments on six state-of-the-art T2I models, we demonstrate that SANEval's automated evaluations provide a more faithful proxy for human assessment; our metric achieves a Spearman's rank correlation with statistically different results than those of existing benchmarks across tasks of attribute binding, spatial relations, and numeracy. To facilitate future research in compositional T2I generation and evaluation, we will release the SANEval dataset and our open-source evaluation pipeline.

The rise of AI agents introduces complex safety and security challenges arising from autonomous tool use and environmental interactions. Current guardrail models lack agentic risk awareness and transparency in risk diagnosis. To introduce an agentic guardrail that covers complex and numerous risky behaviors, we first propose a unified three-dimensional taxonomy that orthogonally categorizes agentic risks by their source (where), failure mode (how), and consequence (what). Guided by this structured and hierarchical taxonomy, we introduce a new fine-grained agentic safety benchmark (ATBench) and a Diagnostic Guardrail framework for agent safety and security (AgentDoG). AgentDoG provides fine-grained and contextual monitoring across agent trajectories. More Crucially, AgentDoG can diagnose the root causes of unsafe actions and seemingly safe but unreasonable actions, offering provenance and transparency beyond binary labels to facilitate effective agent alignment. AgentDoG variants are available in three sizes (4B, 7B, and 8B parameters) across Qwen and Llama model families. Extensive experimental results demonstrate that AgentDoG achieves state-of-the-art performance in agentic safety moderation in diverse and complex interactive scenarios. All models and datasets are openly released.

Recent progress in multimodal large language models (MLLMs) has demonstrated promising performance on medical benchmarks and in preliminary trials as clinical assistants. Yet, our pilot audit of diagnostic cases uncovers a critical failure mode: instability in early evidence interpretation precedes hallucination, creating branching reasoning trajectories that cascade into globally inconsistent conclusions. This highlights the need for clinical reasoning agents that constrain stochasticity and hallucination while producing auditable decision flows. We introduce MedMMV, a controllable multimodal multi-agent framework for reliable and verifiable clinical reasoning. MedMMV stabilizes reasoning through diversified short rollouts, grounds intermediate steps in a structured evidence graph under the supervision of a Hallucination Detector, and aggregates candidate paths with a Combined Uncertainty scorer. On six medical benchmarks, MedMMV improves accuracy by up to 12.7% and, more critically, demonstrates superior reliability. Blind physician evaluations confirm that MedMMV substantially increases reasoning truthfulness without sacrificing informational content. By controlling instability through a verifiable, multi-agent process, our framework provides a robust path toward deploying trustworthy AI systems in high-stakes domains like clinical decision support.

As agent systems move into increasingly diverse execution settings, trajectory-level safety evaluation and diagnosis require benchmarks that evolve with them. ATBench is a diverse and realistic agent trajectory benchmark for safety evaluation and diagnosis. This report presents ATBench-Claw and ATBench-CodeX, two domain-customized extensions that carry ATBench into the OpenClaw and OpenAI Codex / Codex-runtime settings. The key adaptation mechanism is to analyze each new setting, customize the three-dimensional Safety Taxonomy over risk source, failure mode, and real-world harm, and then use that customized taxonomy to define the benchmark specification consumed by the shared ATBench construction pipeline. This extensibility matters because agent frameworks remain relatively stable at the architectural level even as their concrete execution settings, tool ecosystems, and product capabilities evolve quickly. Concretely, ATBench-Claw targets OpenClaw-sensitive execution chains over tools, skills, sessions, and external actions, while ATBench-CodeX targets trajectories in the OpenAI Codex / Codex-runtime setting over repositories, shells, patches, dependencies, approvals, and runtime policy boundaries. Our emphasis therefore falls on taxonomy customization, domain-specific risk coverage, and benchmark design under a shared ATBench generation framework.

As modern microservice systems grow increasingly popular and complex-often consisting of hundreds or even thousands of fine-grained, interdependent components-they are becoming more susceptible to frequent and subtle failures. Ensuring system reliability therefore hinges on accurate and efficient failure localization. Traditional failure localization approaches based on small models lack the flexibility to adapt to diverse failure scenarios, while recent LLM-based methods suffer from two major limitations: they often rely on rigid invocation workflows that constrain the model's ability to dynamically explore optimal localization paths, and they require resource-intensive inference, making them cost-prohibitive for real-world deployment. To address these challenges, we explore the use of reinforcement fine-tuning to equip lightweight LLMs with reasoning and self-refinement capabilities, significantly improving the cost-effectiveness and adaptability of LLM-based failure localization. We begin with an empirical study to identify three key capabilities essential for accurate localization. Building on these insights, we propose a progressive multi-stage GRPO fine-tuning framework, which integrates a multi-factor failure localization grader and a recursion-of-thought actor module. The resulting model, ThinkFL, not only outperforms existing state-of-the-art LLMs and baseline methods in localization accuracy but also reduces end-to-end localization latency from minutes to seconds, demonstrating strong potential for real-world applications.

Three-phase asynchronous motor are fundamental components in industrial systems, and their failure can lead to significant operational downtime and economic losses. Vibration and current signals are effective indicators for monitoring motor health and diagnosing faults. However, motors in real applications often operate under variable conditions such as fluctuating speeds and loads, which complicate the fault diagnosis process. This paper presents a comprehensive dataset collected from a three-phase asynchronous motor under various fault types and severities, operating under diverse speed and load conditions. The dataset includes both single faults and mechanical-electrical compound faults, such as rotor unbalance, stator winding short circuits, bearing faults, and their combinations. Data were acquired under both steady and transitional conditions, with signals including triaxial vibration, three-phase currents, torque, and key-phase signals. This dataset supports the development and validation of robust fault diagnosis methods for electric motors under realistic operating conditions.

Vision Language Models (VLMs) are increasingly used for tasks like medical report generation and visual question answering. However, fluent diagnostic text does not guarantee safe visual understanding. In clinical practice, interpretation begins with pre-diagnostic sanity checks: verifying that the input is valid to read (correct modality and anatomy, plausible viewpoint and orientation, and no obvious integrity violations). Existing benchmarks largely assume this step is solved, and therefore miss a critical failure mode: a model can produce plausible narratives even when the input is inconsistent or invalid. We introduce MedObvious, a 1,880-task benchmark that isolates input validation as a set-level consistency capability over small multi-panel image sets: the model must identify whether any panel violates expected coherence. MedObvious spans five progressive tiers, from basic orientation/modality mismatches to clinically motivated anatomy/viewpoint verification and triage-style cues, and includes five evaluation formats to test robustness across interfaces. Evaluating 17 different VLMs, we find that sanity checking remains unreliable: several models hallucinate anomalies on normal (negative-control) inputs, performance degrades when scaling to larger image sets, and measured accuracy varies substantially between multiple-choice and open-ended settings. These results show that pre-diagnostic verification remains unsolved for medical VLMs and should be treated as a distinct, safety-critical capability before deployment.

Failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) is a critical tool for mitigating potential failures, particular during ramp-up phases of new products. However, its effectiveness is often limited by the missing reasoning capabilities of the FMEA tools, which are usually tabular structured. Meanwhile, large language models (LLMs) offer novel prospects for fine-tuning on custom datasets for reasoning within FMEA contexts. However, LLMs face challenges in tasks that require factual knowledge, a gap that retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) approaches aim to fill. RAG retrieves information from a non-parametric data store and uses a language model to generate responses. Building on this idea, we propose to advance the non-parametric data store with a knowledge graph (KG). By enhancing the RAG framework with a KG, our objective is to leverage analytical and semantic question-answering capabilities on FMEA data. This paper contributes by presenting a new ontology for FMEA observations, an algorithm for creating vector embeddings from the FMEA KG, and a KG enhanced RAG framework. Our approach is validated through a human study and we measure the performance of the context retrieval recall and precision.

Plasma diagnostic models for tokamak fusion devices are almost universally evaluated on clean, complete sensor data. In practice, fusion diagnostics fail regularly: acquisition systems start late, individual sensors die, and signal dropouts cluster precisely when a plasma disruption is approaching. We present the first systematic robustness benchmark for plasma diagnostic ML using the TokaMark dataset of 11,573 MAST shots, evaluating XGBoost, LSTM, Transformer, and the TokaMark CNN baseline across six physically-grounded failure scenarios and three imputation strategies. We introduce the Robustness Score (RS) for standardized cross-architecture comparison. Our central finding is that disruption-proximate sensor failure (corruption injected in the final window timesteps) collapses sequence model performance (LSTM +212% NRMSE) while a statistical feature model remains comparatively stable (XGBoost +37%). Forward-fill imputation eliminates nearly all degradation from random dropout for sequence models (LSTM +57% to ~0%), but offers little help when the end of the window is corrupted. Shot-level alarm evaluation using ground-truth disruption timestamps reveals that LSTM alarm detection collapses to TPR=0.00 under proximate sensor failure, while mean-fill imputation recovers it to TPR=1.00, a reversal of the pattern observed in NRMSE. Plasma current emerges as the single most critical diagnostic across all architectures (+73% to +140% upon removal). Code, data, and trained checkpoints are available at https://github.com/Neerav-Gupta/tokamark-robustness.

Multi-provider LLM gateways reverse proxies that route, load-balance, and rate-limit requests across foundation-model APIs have become critical production infrastructure. Yet the failure modes specific to this architectural layer remain undocumented, scattered across issue trackers and post-mortems with no unifying framework. We introduce , a two-axis taxonomy that classifies failures by their origin layer (Network/Transport, Streaming/Protocol, State/Session, Model~Behavior, Governance/Cost) and their detectability (Loud vs.\ Silent). We populate this taxonomy with five verified catalog entries sourced from public bug reports and first-hand stress testing, each accompanied by a mechanistic root-cause analysis. Three entries include standalone reproduction scripts. Our principal finding is that the most operationally severe failures are silent: they return HTTP~200, pass every standard health check, and corrupt application state in ways that require semantic-level observability to detect. Two such silent failures a concurrency race condition causing history loss and a streaming index collision corrupting tool-call payloads were discovered first-hand during evaluation campaigns.

Self-driving laboratories increasingly rely on low-cost liquid handlers such as the Opentrons OT-2, which ship without the pressure-based aspiration monitoring of Hamilton or Tecan systems and are typically run open-loop. Two failure modes go undetected: protocols that are syntactically valid but violate assay-specific invariants (e.g., tip reuse between a PCR template and a no-template control), and physical execution failures (partial dispense, air bubbles, missing tips) at runtime. We present AEGIS, a two-layer guardian for both. Layer 1 pairs a curated machine-readable assay rule database with an LLM that reasons over OT-2 Python code, reaching an adjusted F1 of 0.97 on a 24-protocol benchmark across five assay families and beating rules-only and LLM-only ablations across five backends; a free open-weight model ties the best proprietary one, so no paid API is required. Layer 2 fits a PCA world model to YOLO-cropped four-frame pipette trajectories; under a leakage-free leave-one-plate-out evaluation it reaches average precision 0.89 and operating-point F1 0.71 (AUROC 0.80), a deployment-faithful number that matches the live demonstration, and we characterize the small-pipette (p20) resolution limit (F1 0.47). A live demonstration on a physical OT-2 (five replicates per condition) catches planted no-tip failures deterministically and partial dispense on coloured dyes, with an always-VLM self-vote gate lifting partial-dispense recall to 5/5; transparent water is a principled limit of any front-view-only monitor, which AEGIS surfaces as low-confidence VLM reasoning rather than a wrong verdict. Cascade triage holds VLM cost near 1.63 per plate versus 10.33 for an always-VLM baseline. AEGIS is open source and, to our knowledge, the first system to unify pre-flight assay-aware validation with runtime visual monitoring for an open-source liquid handler.

Deployed multimodal systems can fail in ways that evaluators did not anticipate. In order to find these failures before deployment, we introduce MultiMon, a system that automatically identifies systematic failures -- generalizable, natural-language descriptions of patterns of model failures. To uncover systematic failures, MultiMon scrapes a corpus for examples of erroneous agreement: inputs that produce the same output, but should not. It then prompts a language model (e.g., GPT-4) to find systematic patterns of failure and describe them in natural language. We use MultiMon to find 14 systematic failures (e.g., "ignores quantifiers") of the CLIP text-encoder, each comprising hundreds of distinct inputs (e.g., "a shelf with a few/many books"). Because CLIP is the backbone for most state-of-the-art multimodal systems, these inputs produce failures in Midjourney 5.1, DALL-E, VideoFusion, and others. MultiMon can also steer towards failures relevant to specific use cases, such as self-driving cars. We see MultiMon as a step towards evaluation that autonomously explores the long tail of potential system failures. Code for MULTIMON is available at https://github.com/tsb0601/MultiMon.

The continuous delivery of modern software requires the execution of many automated pipeline jobs. These jobs ensure the frequent release of new software versions while detecting code problems at an early stage. For TELUS, our industrial partner in the telecommunications field, reliable job execution is crucial to minimize wasted time and streamline Continuous Deployment (CD). In this context, flaky job failures are one of the main issues hindering CD. Prior studies proposed techniques based on machine learning to automate the detection of flaky jobs. While valuable, these solutions are insufficient to address the waste associated with the diagnosis of flaky failures, which remain largely unexplored due to the wide range of underlying causes. This study examines 4,511 flaky job failures at TELUS to identify the different categories of flaky failures that we prioritize based on Recency, Frequency, and Monetary (RFM) measures. We identified 46 flaky failure categories that we analyzed using clustering and RFM measures to determine 14 priority categories for future automated diagnosis and repair research. Our findings also provide valuable insights into the evolution and impact of these categories. The identification and prioritization of flaky failure categories using RFM analysis introduce a novel approach that can be used in other contexts.

Reasoning failures in large language models (LLMs) are typically measured only at the end of a generation, yet many failures manifest as a process-level breakdown: the model "loses the thread" mid-reasoning. We study whether such breakdowns are detectable from inference-time observables available in standard APIs (token log probabilities), without any training or fine-tuning. We define a simple instability signal that combines consecutive-step distributional shift (JSD) and uncertainty (entropy), summarize each trace by its peak instability strength, and show that this signal reliably predicts failure. Across GSM8K and HotpotQA, instability strength predicts wrong answers with above-chance AUC and yields monotonic bucket-level accuracy decline at scale across model sizes. Crucially, we show that instability is not uniformly harmful: early instability can reflect subsequent stabilization and a correct final answer (corrective instability), whereas late instability is more often followed by failure (destructive instability), even at comparable peak magnitudes, indicating that recoverability depends not only on how strongly the distribution changes but also on when such changes occur relative to the remaining decoding horizon. The method is model-agnostic, training-free, and reproducible, and is presented as a diagnostic lens rather than a corrective or control mechanism.

The deployment of embodied agents in self-driving laboratories could accelerate scientific discovery, yet their reliability is constrained by the irreversible and safety-critical nature of chemical experiments. Progress is further hindered by scarce failure data and the lack of fine-grained evaluation protocols. To address these challenges, we introduce LabRobFail, a failure-centric framework for learning and evaluating robotic failure analysis in chemical laboratories. LabRobFail-Sim injects controllable failures at the control, physics, and semantic levels, enabling the construction of LabRobFail-Data, which contains over 20,000 trajectories across 70+ task scenarios, five failure categories, and 11 fine-grained failure types. LabRobFail-Bench evaluates six capabilities spanning task understanding, failure detection, temporal localization, severity assessment, failure classification, and actionable correction. We further develop LabRobFail-VLM, a domain-specialized vision-language model that generates structured failure diagnoses and recovery instructions. On seen environments, it achieves 90.83% failure-detection accuracy and 77.21% temporal-localization accuracy, substantially outperforming general-purpose VLMs. When integrated as a real-time supervisor, it improves downstream task success rates by 4-16 percentage points, demonstrating the value of fine-grained failure understanding for closed-loop recovery and reliable laboratory autonomy. Our code and data are available at https://github.com/Su-ISE-2001/SciRobo

In this work, we study the challenge of providing human-understandable descriptions for failure modes in trained image classification models. Existing works address this problem by first identifying clusters (or directions) of incorrectly classified samples in a latent space and then aiming to provide human-understandable text descriptions for them. We observe that in some cases, describing text does not match well with identified failure modes, partially owing to the fact that shared interpretable attributes of failure modes may not be captured using clustering in the feature space. To improve on these shortcomings, we propose a novel approach that prioritizes interpretability in this problem: we start by obtaining human-understandable concepts (tags) of images in the dataset and then analyze the model's behavior based on the presence or absence of combinations of these tags. Our method also ensures that the tags describing a failure mode form a minimal set, avoiding redundant and noisy descriptions. Through several experiments on different datasets, we show that our method successfully identifies failure modes and generates high-quality text descriptions associated with them. These results highlight the importance of prioritizing interpretability in understanding model failures.

Multimodal industrial anomaly inspection assistants are a critical component of next-generation smart factories, enabling interactive vision-language-based querying. However, multimodal large language models remain impractical for on-site deployment due to prohibitive computational demands and privacy risks from cloud-based inference. Compact multimodal small language models (MSLMs) offer a deployable alternative, yet progress is constrained by the lack of comprehensive robustness analyses and meaningfully challenging benchmarks that reflect real-world industrial conditions. To address this gap, we develop RobustMAD, the first deployment-motivated benchmark, designed to comprehensively evaluate model robustness through diverse open-ended queries spanning object understanding, anomaly detection, unanswerable problems, and visual quality degradations. Contrary to conventional assumptions, top-performing MSLMs exhibit promising capabilities, surprisingly outperforming even the larger GPT-5 Nano. However, they still fall short of safety-critical requirements, and RobustMAD reveals critical robustness gaps that pose operational risks. In particular, three recurring failure modes emerge: (i) fragile multimodal grounding under fine-grained distinctions or degraded visual conditions, (ii) insufficiently comprehensive responses, and (iii) weak logical grounding on unanswerable or ill-posed queries, leading to hallucinated outputs. Grounded in these insights, we provide actionable guidance for the design of next-generation multimodal industrial inspection assistants that leverage their promising competence. Code is available at https://github.com/en-research/RobustMAD.

Large-scale AI training is now fundamentally a distributed systems problem, and hardware failures have become routine operating conditions rather than rare exceptions. Public operational evidence from production training clusters, however, remains scarce. This technical report presents an empirical analysis of a 63-node NVIDIA B200 production cluster (504 GPUs), using 55 days of Prometheus time-series data and 73 days of operational logs covering 224 multi-node training sessions. The cluster operates within a cross-organizational environment in which five parties (SKT, Upstage, Lablup, NVIDIA Korea, and VAST Data) share a unified monitoring pipeline. This arrangement enabled joint diagnosis of a 60-node-scale storage I/O bottleneck that did not appear at 2-4-node scale, a production-scale phenomenon no single team could isolate alone. Drawing on a months-long pre-training campaign, we perform three quantitative analyses yielding four findings. First, statistical analysis over 751 Prometheus metrics and 10 XID-identified GPU failures achieves a 10/10 detection rate (2/10 pre-XID) at ~0.84 false positives per day. No single metric is consistently dominant across failure types, motivating a multi-signal detection strategy. Second, profiling 523 checkpoint events along the GPU VRAM to NFS path attributes the "bandwidth paradox" (1.4-10.4% utilization of 200 Gbps RoCE) to saturation of the 128-slot NFS RPC layer. Third, multi-node failure response shows concentrated exclusions (top 3 of 63 nodes account for >50% of all exclusions) and an auto-retry chain success rate of 33.3% over 12 chains (73 attempts), 2.7x the 12.5% manual recovery rate; the median retry interval is 11 min (IQR 10-11). All analyses are grounded in production infrastructure providing session-level workload management, GPU-centric scheduling, and unified observability.

Too many defective compute chips are escaping existing manufacturing tests -- at least an order of magnitude more than industrial targets across all compute chip types in data centers. Silent data corruptions (SDCs) caused by test escapes, when left unaddressed, pose a major threat to reliable computing. We present a three-pronged approach outlining future directions for overcoming test escapes: (a) Quick diagnosis of defective chips directly from system-level incorrect behaviors. Such diagnosis is critical for gaining insights into why so many defective chips escape existing manufacturing testing. (b) In-field detection of defective chips. (c) New test experiments to understand the effectiveness of new techniques for detecting defective chips. These experiments must overcome the drawbacks and pitfalls of previous industrial test experiments and case studies.

Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (MARL) is increasingly deployed in safety-critical domains, yet methods for interpretable failure detection and attribution remain underdeveloped. We introduce a two-stage gradient-based framework that provides interpretable diagnostics for three critical failure analysis tasks: (1) detecting the true initial failure source (Patient-0); (2) validating why non-attacked agents may be flagged first due to domino effects; and (3) tracing how failures propagate through learned coordination pathways. Stage 1 performs interpretable per-agent failure detection via Taylor-remainder analysis of policy-gradient costs, declaring an initial Patient-0 candidate at the first threshold crossing. Stage 2 provides validation through geometric analysis of critic derivatives-first-order sensitivity and directional second-order curvature aggregated over causal windows to construct interpretable contagion graphs. This approach explains "downstream-first" detection anomalies by revealing pathways that amplify upstream deviations. Evaluated across 500 episodes in Simple Spread (3 and 5 agents) and 100 episodes in StarCraft II using MADDPG and HATRPO, our method achieves 88.2-99.4% Patient-0 detection accuracy while providing interpretable geometric evidence for detection decisions. By moving beyond black-box detection to interpretable gradient-level forensics, this framework offers practical tools for diagnosing cascading failures in safety-critical MARL systems.

Deploying learned control policies is risky because policies that appear robust in simulation can confidently enter out-of-distribution (OOD) states after Sim-to-Real transfer, causing silent failures and potential hardware damage. Existing anomaly detectors often fail to meet the requirements of high-rate control, extremely low false-positive rates, and interpretable failure feedback. We present RAPT (Recurrent Anomaly Probabilistic Trajectory Model), a lightweight, self-supervised 50\,Hz deployment monitor that learns nominal execution from large-scale simulation and produces calibrated, per-dimension predictive-deviation signals online. RAPT enables OOD detection under strict false-positive constraints while localizing when and where real execution departs from nominal behavior. For post-hoc diagnosis, RAPT combines temporal saliency, joint-kinematic summaries, and LLM-based semantic reasoning to classify likely failure causes in a zero-shot setting. In simulation across four Isaac Lab tasks, RAPT improves TPR by 37% over the strongest baseline at 0.5% episode-level FPR; on hardware, it achieves 89% TPR across 78 trials with fewer false positives than high-frequency-compatible baselines, and reaches 75% semantic failure diagnosis accuracy across 21 categories on a challenging OOD subset. Project website, code, and videos: https://humphreymunn.github.io/RAPT/.

The prevalence of vision-threatening eye diseases is a significant global burden, with many cases remaining undiagnosed or diagnosed too late for effective treatment. Large vision-language models (LVLMs) have the potential to assist in understanding anatomical information, diagnosing eye diseases, and drafting interpretations and follow-up plans, thereby reducing the burden on clinicians and improving access to eye care. However, limited benchmarks are available to assess LVLMs' performance in ophthalmology-specific applications. In this study, we introduce LMOD, a large-scale multimodal ophthalmology benchmark consisting of 21,993 instances across (1) five ophthalmic imaging modalities: optical coherence tomography, color fundus photographs, scanning laser ophthalmoscopy, lens photographs, and surgical scenes; (2) free-text, demographic, and disease biomarker information; and (3) primary ophthalmology-specific applications such as anatomical information understanding, disease diagnosis, and subgroup analysis. In addition, we benchmarked 13 state-of-the-art LVLM representatives from closed-source, open-source, and medical domains. The results demonstrate a significant performance drop for LVLMs in ophthalmology compared to other domains. Systematic error analysis further identified six major failure modes: misclassification, failure to abstain, inconsistent reasoning, hallucination, assertions without justification, and lack of domain-specific knowledge. In contrast, supervised neural networks specifically trained on these tasks as baselines demonstrated high accuracy. These findings underscore the pressing need for benchmarks in the development and validation of ophthalmology-specific LVLMs.

Failure attribution for LLM-based agentic systems, i.e., identifying which steps in a failure trajectory caused the task to fail, is critical for debugging and improving these systems. Existing approaches either rely on prompting-based pipelines, which are computationally expensive, or require post-training on failure trajectories with step-level error annotations, which are costly to collect and difficult to scale. We argue that a practical failure attribution model should be lightweight and trainable without step-level supervision on failure data. To this end, we address unsupervised failure attribution, i.e., training exclusively on successful trajectories and identifying error steps at inference time given a failure trajectory. We propose OAT, which casts this problem as one-class learning with neural controlled differential equations, modeling the dynamical pattern of successful trajectories in latent space. At inference time, each step in a failure trajectory is assigned an anomaly score based on its deviation from the dynamics learned on successful trajectories, which is then used to form a set of error steps. With training on only 100 successful trajectories, experiments show that OAT is 200--5000 times faster than prompting-based baselines, and, at the same time, consistently outperforms them in both in-domain and out-of-distribution datasets with +20% and +7% F1 scores, respectively, demonstrating that OAT is a promising and efficient direction for diagnosing agentic system failures.

Frontier large language model training consumes massive accelerator fleets and long wall-clock computation, making stability failures costly when they occur. After a numerical or a hyperparameter fault has already destabilized the training dynamics, it may continue for thousands of steps while loss and gradient norms still appear normal. We study mechanism-driven detection of training instability by deriving internal monitors from the functional role of each critical module and from the earliest computational sites where failures are expected to produce measurable signatures. For low-precision flash attention, we monitor the spectral entropy of a QK bilinear decomposition, whose first-order term becomes abnormal before the loss fully collapses. For MoE routers, we derive indicators from their role in expert selection. Our fault-injection experiments on low-precision attention, large learning-rate, and combined faults show that these signals provide distinct signatures for different failures, triggering thousands of steps before loss divergence.

AI agents often fail in ways that are difficult to localize because executions are probabilistic, long-horizon, multi-agent, and mediated by noisy tool outputs. We address this gap by manually annotating failed agent runs and release a novel benchmark of 115 failed trajectories spanning structured API workflows, incident management, and open-ended web/file tasks. Each trajectory is annotated with a critical failure step and a category from a grounded-theory derived, cross-domain failure taxonomy. To mitigate the human cost of failure attribution, we present AGENTRX, an automated domain-agnostic diagnostic framework that pinpoints the critical failure step in a failed agent trajectory. It synthesizes constraints, evaluates them step-by-step, and produces an auditable validation log of constraint violations with associated evidence; an LLM-based judge uses this log to localize the critical step and category. Our framework improves step localization and failure attribution over existing baselines across three domains.

Tool-using LLM agents can violate the very policies they are deployed to enforce while appearing to complete the task successfully. In policy-permissive environments, a tool may execute any well-formed call even when the corresponding state transition is forbidden by domain policy. The result is a silent wrong state (a booking cancelled, a passenger count changed, a claim acted on without verification) that neither the tool nor the agent's self-report exposes. We study this failure mode in the τ^2-bench airline domain. On a budget agent, 78% of observed failures are silent wrong-state failures with no tool error, and the aggregate failure rate is reproducible across disjoint seeds, not sampling noise. We then evaluate a lightweight intervention: deterministic, read-only pre-execution gates that inspect the proposed call and current state before allowing a write. A four-gate suite raises full-benchmark success from 29.6% to 42.0% on gpt-4o-mini (+12.4pp; paired task-level bootstrap P=0.0012), and the lift reproduces on a disjoint 15-seed set (+12.3pp; P=0.0008). The effect is concentrated where the gates fire: on the 26/50 firing tasks, success rises by +19.2pp, while movement on the 24 non-firing tasks does not exclude zero. Two negative controls (a self-enforcing retail domain and BFCL) bound the mechanism: gates help when tools are policy-permissive and add little where tools already self-enforce. As suggestive evidence, not a central claim, the same failure mode persists at the frontier: gpt-5.2 at default reasoning still attempts policy-violating writes, and the same suite improves success from 61.2% to 71.6% (+10.4pp; P=0.020; n=5, no replication). The contribution is a bounded evaluation and reliability result: deterministic gates do not guarantee task success, but they can deterministically prevent a known class of silent policy-violating writes at the action boundary.

Large language models (LLMs) show promise in medical diagnosis, but real-world deployment remains challenging due to high-stakes clinical decisions and imperfect reasoning reliability. As a result, careful inspection of model behavior is essential for assessing whether diagnostic reasoning is reliable and clinically grounded. However, debugging medical LLMs remains difficult. First, developers often lack sufficient medical domain expertise to interpret model errors in clinically meaningful terms. Second, models can fail across a large and diverse set of instances involving different input types, tasks, and reasoning steps, making it challenging for developers to prioritize which errors deserve focused inspection. Third, developers struggle to identify recurring error patterns across cases, as existing debugging practices are largely instance-centric and rely on manual inspection of isolated failures. To address these challenges, we present VeriLLMed, a visual analytics system that integrates external biomedical knowledge to audit and debug medical LLM diagnostic reasoning. VeriLLMed transforms model outputs into comparable reasoning paths, constructs knowledge graph-grounded reference paths, and identifies three recurring classes of diagnosis errors: relation errors, branch errors, and missing errors. Case studies and expert evaluation demonstrate that VeriLLMed helps developers identify clinically implausible reasoning and generate actionable insights that can inform the improvement of medical LLMs.

Kubernetes is a free, open-source container orchestration system for deploying and managing Docker containers that host microservices. Kubernetes cluster logs help in determining the reason for the failure. However, as systems become more complex, identifying failure reasons manually becomes more difficult and time-consuming. This study aims to identify effective and efficient classification algorithms to automatically determine the failure reason. We compare five classification algorithms, Support Vector Machines, K-Nearest Neighbors, Random Forest, Gradient Boosting Classifier, and Multilayer Perceptron. Our results indicate that Random Forest produces good accuracy while requiring fewer computational resources than other algorithms.

Multi-agent systems (MAS) are critical for automating complex tasks, yet their practical deployment is severely hampered by the challenge of failure attribution. Current diagnostic tools, which rely on statistical correlations, are fundamentally inadequate; on challenging benchmarks like Who\&When, state-of-the-art methods achieve less than 15\% accuracy in locating the root-cause step of a failure. To address this critical gap, we introduce the first failure attribution framework for MAS grounded in multi-granularity causal inference. Our approach makes two key technical contributions: (1) a performance causal inversion principle, which correctly models performance dependencies by reversing the data flow in execution logs, combined with Shapley values to accurately assign agent-level blame; (2) a novel causal discovery algorithm, CDC-MAS, that robustly identifies critical failure steps by tackling the non-stationary nature of MAS interaction data. The framework's attribution results directly fuel an automated optimization loop, generating targeted suggestions whose efficacy is validated via counterfactual simulations. Evaluations on the Who\&When and TRAIL benchmarks demonstrate a significant leap in performance. Our method achieves up to 36.2\% step-level accuracy. Crucially, the generated optimizations boost overall task success rates by an average of 22.4\%. This work provides a principled and effective solution for debugging complex agent interactions, paving the way for more reliable and interpretable multi-agent systems.

Clinical diagnosis is critical in medical practice, typically requiring a continuous and evolving process that includes primary diagnosis, differential diagnosis, and final diagnosis. However, most existing clinical diagnostic tasks are single-step processes, which does not align with the complex multi-step diagnostic procedures found in real-world clinical settings. In this paper, we propose a multi-step diagnostic task and annotate a clinical diagnostic dataset (MSDiagnosis). This dataset includes primary diagnosis, differential diagnosis, and final diagnosis questions. Additionally, we propose a novel and effective framework. This framework combines forward inference, backward inference, reflection, and refinement, enabling the LLM to self-evaluate and adjust its diagnostic results. To assess the effectiveness of our proposed method, we design and conduct extensive experiments. The experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method. We also provide a comprehensive experimental analysis and suggest future research directions for this task.

LLM agents often retry after external validation rejects a candidate, but the interface between validation and the next model call remains underspecified. We introduce VeriHarness, a code-controlled agent loop in which models generate candidates while external validators control acceptance, budgets, and traces. We use it to compare raw diagnostics with feedback that identifies the failure location, observed value, and admissible alternatives. Across 50 paired TextWorld games under a four-call cap, feedback containing all three fields raises terminal success from 14/50 to 36/50 for Qwen2.5-Coder-14B (+44 percentage points) and from 8/50 to 29/50 for Llama-3.1-8B (+42 points). Ablations locate most of the gain in the admissible alternatives: feedback containing only the location and observed value remains near the raw diagnostic baseline. Presenting the complete repair information in prose instead of a keyed JSON record yields nearly the same success, providing no evidence that JSON syntax itself improves repair. The ordering persists across the tested call budgets and one sampled-decoding setting.

We present the design, implementation and engineering experience in building and deploying MegaScale, a production system for training large language models (LLMs) at the scale of more than 10,000 GPUs. Training LLMs at this scale brings unprecedented challenges to training efficiency and stability. We take a full-stack approach that co-designs the algorithmic and system components across model block and optimizer design, computation and communication overlapping, operator optimization, data pipeline, and network performance tuning. Maintaining high efficiency throughout the training process (i.e., stability) is an important consideration in production given the long extent of LLM training jobs. Many hard stability issues only emerge at large scale, and in-depth observability is the key to address them. We develop a set of diagnosis tools to monitor system components and events deep in the stack, identify root causes, and derive effective techniques to achieve fault tolerance and mitigate stragglers. MegaScale achieves 55.2% Model FLOPs Utilization (MFU) when training a 175B LLM model on 12,288 GPUs, improving the MFU by 1.34x compared to Megatron-LM. We share our operational experience in identifying and fixing failures and stragglers. We hope by articulating the problems and sharing our experience from a systems perspective, this work can inspire future LLM systems research.

Recent studies have revealed that self-sustaining cascading failures in distributed systems frequently lead to widespread outages, which are challenging to contain and recover from. Existing failure detection techniques struggle to expose such failures prior to deployment, as they typically require a complex combination of specific conditions to be triggered. This challenge stems from the inherent nature of cascading failures, as they typically involve a sequence of fault propagations, each activated by distinct conditions. This paper presents CSnake, a fault injection framework to expose self-sustaining cascading failures in distributed systems. CSnake uses the novel idea of causal stitching, which causally links multiple single-fault injections in different tests to simulate complex fault propagation chains. To identify these chains, CSnake designs a counterfactual causality analysis of fault propagations - fault causality analysis (FCA): FCA compares the execution trace of a fault injection run with its corresponding profile run (i.e., same test w/o the injection) and identifies any additional faults triggered, which are considered to have a causal relationship with the injected fault. To address the large search space of fault and workload combinations, CSnake employs a three-phase allocation protocol of test budget that prioritizes faults with unique and diverse causal consequences, increasing the likelihood of uncovering conditional fault propagations. Furthermore, to avoid incorrectly connecting fault propagations from workloads with incompatible conditions, CSnake performs a local compatibility check that approximately checks the compatibility of the path constraints associated with connected fault propagations with low overhead. CSnake detected 15 bugs that cause self-sustaining cascading failures in five systems, five of which have been confirmed with two fixed.

Root cause analysis (RCA) is essential for diagnosing failures within complex software systems to ensure system reliability. The highly distributed and interdependent nature of modern cloud-based systems often complicates RCA efforts, particularly for multi-hop fault propagation, where symptoms appear far from their true causes. Recent advancements in Large Language Models (LLMs) present new opportunities to enhance automated RCA. However, their practical value for RCA depends on the fidelity of reasoning and decision-making. Existing work relies on historical incident corpora, operates directly on high-volume telemetry beyond current LLM capacity, or embeds reasoning inside complex multi-agent pipelines -- conditions that obscure whether failures arise from reasoning itself or from peripheral design choices. We present a focused empirical evaluation that isolates an LLM's reasoning behavior. We design a controlled experimental framework that foregrounds the LLM by using a simplified experimental setting. We evaluate six LLMs under two agentic workflows (ReAct and Plan-and-Execute) and a non-agentic baseline on two real-world case studies (GAIA and OpenRCA). In total, we executed 48,000 simulated failure scenarios, totaling 228 days of execution time. We measure both root-cause accuracy and the quality of intermediate reasoning traces. We produce a labeled taxonomy of 16 common RCA reasoning failures and use an LLM-as-a-Judge for annotation. Our results clarify where current open-source LLMs succeed and fail in multi-hop RCA, quantify sensitivity to input data modalities, and identify reasoning failures that predict final correctness. Together, these contributions provide transparent and reproducible empirical results and a failure taxonomy to guide future work on reasoning-driven system diagnosis.

Ensuring the safety of large language models (LLMs) is critical for responsible deployment, yet existing evaluations often prioritize performance over identifying failure modes. We introduce Phare, a multilingual diagnostic framework to probe and evaluate LLM behavior across three critical dimensions: hallucination and reliability, social biases, and harmful content generation. Our evaluation of 17 state-of-the-art LLMs reveals patterns of systematic vulnerabilities across all safety dimensions, including sycophancy, prompt sensitivity, and stereotype reproduction. By highlighting these specific failure modes rather than simply ranking models, Phare provides researchers and practitioners with actionable insights to build more robust, aligned, and trustworthy language systems.

A prevalent assumption in LLM agent deployment holds that more structured harnesses universally improve reliability, and that higher-capability models need proportionally less structural guidance -- together implying a monotone inverse relationship between model capability tier and optimal harness complexity. We test this hypothesis through a controlled 432-run experiment crossing six models across four capability tiers with three harness conditions (light, balanced, strict) on HEAT-24, a 24-task synthetic benchmark with git-based workspace verification. Our results refute the monotone inverse relationship on two fronts. First, for the frontier chat model evaluated (Gemini 2.5 Flash), increased harness verbosity lowers VTSR by 29-38 percentage points -- a harness-complexity paradox. Second, for the frontier reasoning model evaluated (Qwen3.5-122B, extended thinking enabled), strict harness achieves the highest VTSR (91.7%) and the lowest latency, the opposite of the prediction. Within the constrained tier, a 2B model (Gemma4:e2B) matches strong-open-tier stability at 91.7% across all harnesses. Because each tier is represented by a single model in this study, these results should be interpreted as model-specific observations; harness sensitivity appears non-monotone across the models evaluated, and depends critically on model type (chat vs. reasoning). We introduce a six-label failure taxonomy showing that format_violation dominates capable-model failures while wrong_file dominates low-capability failures, and we derive practical tier-aware harness selection guidelines.

Large language models (LLMs) have become increasingly capable of following instructions and complex reasoning, making prompting a flexible interface for adapting models without parameter updates. Yet prompt design remains labor-intensive and highly sensitive to formatting, phrasing, and instruction order, motivating automated prompt optimization methods that reduce manual effort while preserving inference-time flexibility. However, existing methods often search over prompt candidates or use fixed critique-refine pipelines driven by individual examples or small batches, limiting their ability to capture systematic error patterns and make targeted edits grounded in failure history. We propose Reflective Prompt Tuning (RPT), a framework that uses LLM function calling to simulate the iterative workflow of human prompt engineers. An LLM optimizer calls a diagnostic function that evaluates the target model over an entire optimization set, summarizes recurring failure modes, and returns a structured diagnostic report. The optimizer uses this report, together with an accumulated memory of prior reports, to revise the prompt for the next iteration. RPT further supports confidence-aware optimization by using calibration signals in diagnostic feedback and final prompt selection. Across three reasoning tasks, RPT improves over initial prompts by up to 12.9 points, remains competitive with state of the art, and improves confidence calibration. Our analyses show that RPT is especially effective on multi-hop and mathematical reasoning, producing targeted prompt revisions that align with diagnosed failure patterns and lead to gains in task performance and calibration.

Test-Time Scaling (TTS) improves LLM reasoning by exploring multiple candidate responses and then operating over this set to find the best output. A tacit premise behind TTS is that sufficiently diverse candidate pools enhance reliability. In this work, we show that this assumption in TTS introduces a previously unrecognized failure mode. When candidate diversity is curtailed, even by a modest amount, TTS becomes much more likely to produce unsafe outputs. We present a reference-guided diversity reduction protocol (RefDiv) that serves as a diagnostic attack to stress test TTS pipelines. Through extensive experiments across open-source models (e.g. Qwen3, Mistral, Llama3.1, Gemma3) and two widely used TTS strategies (Monte Carlo Tree Search and Best-of-N), constraining diversity consistently signifies the rate at which TTS produces unsafe results. The effect is often stronger than that produced by prompts directly with high adversarial intent scores. This observed phenomenon also transfers across TTS strategies and to closed-source models (e.g. OpenAI o3-mini and Gemini-2.5-Pro), thus indicating that this is a general and extant property of TTS rather than a model-specific artifact. Additionally, we find that numerous widely used safety guardrail classifiers (e.g. Llama-Guard), are unable to flag the adversarial input prompts generated by RefDiv, demonstrating that existing defenses offer limited protection against this diversity-driven failure mode.

Agentic LLM coding tools compress long session histories into compaction summaries that subsequent sessions inherit as ground truth. This paper documents a failure mode in Claude Code where partial standard output from timed-out commands (exit code 143) is recorded in compaction summaries as confirmed results, propagating false positives across sessions and model versions without re-verification. The underlying mechanism is a conflation of observation and persistence, where information that appeared in the terminal is treated as equivalent to information written to durable storage. This finding extends the analysis of LLM self-evaluation failures reported in prior work on non-determinism in LLM-as-judge grading by showing that agentic tools exhibit analogous reliability deficits when reporting on their own operational outcomes. The failure has direct implications for any workflow that relies on agentic session continuity for data processing, scientific computation, or multi-step automation.

Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models enable robots to follow natural language instructions and generalize across diverse tasks, but they remain vulnerable to execution failures that compromise reliability in real-world deployment. Detecting such failures during execution is therefore critical for the robust deployment of embodied systems. Existing failure detection methods either rely on expensive action resampling or external models, while alternatives propagate trajectory-level labels uniformly across every timestep, obscuring localized failure signals. In this paper, we propose Hide-and-Seek, a framework that formulates VLA failure detection as a coarsely supervised learning problem. By combining inter-trajectory and intra-trajectory contrastive objectives, Hide-and-Seek localizes failure-indicative actions and induces temporally structured failure signals from trajectory-level supervision alone, without any step-level annotation. We evaluate Hide-and-Seek on LIBERO, VLABench, and a real-world robotic platform across three representative VLA policies: OpenVLA, π_0, and π_{0.5}.Our method achieves state-of-the-art multi-task failure detection performance with a practical accuracy--timeliness trade-off under conformal prediction, and generalizes well to both seen and unseen tasks.

Computer-use agents, which leverage multimodal large language models (MLLMs) to operate computers and complete tasks, have attracted significant attention for their utility and versatility. A major challenge in developing these agents is collecting large-scale, high-quality trajectories. The standard approach generates synthetic data through a self-improving loop: an agent is placed in a verifiable environment and iteratively fine-tuned on its successful trajectories. Despite its effectiveness, this paradigm exploits only successful trajectories and discards the failed ones, even though failures carry rich information about a model's weaknesses. In this work, we explore a complementary failure-driven self-improvement loop, a data-centric paradigm that turns failed trajectories into agent improvements. Specifically, we employ an LLM to diagnose failure modes, propose inference-time solutions, and generate code patches -- lightly verified by humans -- that upgrade the agent. We validate this approach with the state-of-the-art OpenCUA-72B model on the OSWorld benchmark, improving the success rate from 42.3% to 48.9%, a gain of 6.6 percentage points, without any additional training cost and with only modest inference overhead. Our results demonstrate that failure-driven self-improvement is a viable complement to success-based pipelines, enabling more efficient agent improvement.

Large language models (LLMs) are being rapidly integrated into decision-support tools, automation workflows, and AI-enabled software systems. However, their behavior in production environments remains poorly understood, and their failure patterns differ fundamentally from those of traditional machine learning models. This paper presents a system-level taxonomy of fifteen hidden failure modes that arise in real-world LLM applications, including multi-step reasoning drift, latent inconsistency, context-boundary degradation, incorrect tool invocation, version drift, and cost-driven performance collapse. Using this taxonomy, we analyze the growing gap in evaluation and monitoring practices: existing benchmarks measure knowledge or reasoning but provide little insight into stability, reproducibility, drift, or workflow integration. We further examine the production challenges associated with deploying LLMs - including observability limitations, cost constraints, and update-induced regressions - and outline high-level design principles for building reliable, maintainable, and cost-aware LLM systems. Finally, we outline high-level design principles for building reliable, maintainable, and cost-aware LLM-based systems. By framing LLM reliability as a system-engineering problem rather than a purely model-centric one, this work provides an analytical foundation for future research on evaluation methodology, AI system robustness, and dependable LLM deployment.

Despite the success of physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) in approximating partial differential equations (PDEs), PINNs can sometimes fail to converge to the correct solution in problems involving complicated PDEs. This is reflected in several recent studies on characterizing the "failure modes" of PINNs, although a thorough understanding of the connection between PINN failure modes and sampling strategies is missing. In this paper, we provide a novel perspective of failure modes of PINNs by hypothesizing that training PINNs relies on successful "propagation" of solution from initial and/or boundary condition points to interior points. We show that PINNs with poor sampling strategies can get stuck at trivial solutions if there are propagation failures, characterized by highly imbalanced PDE residual fields. To mitigate propagation failures, we propose a novel Retain-Resample-Release sampling (R3) algorithm that can incrementally accumulate collocation points in regions of high PDE residuals with little to no computational overhead. We provide an extension of R3 sampling to respect the principle of causality while solving time-dependent PDEs. We theoretically analyze the behavior of R3 sampling and empirically demonstrate its efficacy and efficiency in comparison with baselines on a variety of PDE problems.

Robot manipulation policies often fail for unknown reasons, posing significant challenges for real-world deployment. Researchers and engineers typically address these failures using heuristic approaches, which are not only labor-intensive and costly but also prone to overlooking critical failure modes (FMs). This paper introduces Robot Manipulation Diagnosis (RoboMD), a systematic framework designed to automatically identify FMs arising from unanticipated changes in the environment. Considering the vast space of potential FMs in a pre-trained manipulation policy, we leverage deep reinforcement learning (deep RL) to explore and uncover these FMs using a specially trained vision-language embedding that encodes a notion of failures. This approach enables users to probabilistically quantify and rank failures in previously unseen environmental conditions. Through extensive experiments across various manipulation tasks and algorithms, we demonstrate RoboMD's effectiveness in diagnosing unknown failures in unstructured environments, providing a systematic pathway to improve the robustness of manipulation policies.

Evaluations should do more than measure a models current performance. They should tell us what to fix for the next model iteration and provide a way to generate targeted post training data. Most evaluation pipelines identify weak examples, topics, or categories, but they leave the underlying capability failure implicit: they say where a model fails, not why. We introduce CRAFT, a method that converts any rubric based evaluation dataset into a model specific diagnosis of weak capabilities. CRAFT treats each grading criterion as a capability probe: it extracts a capability description from every prompt rubric pair, clusters these descriptions into a hierarchical capability tree, scores the target model at every node, and selects low performing nodes dynamically across tree levels, at the granularity where each failure is clearest. The selected weak capabilities then direct the generation of targeted supervised finetuning data. Holding the data generation, finetuning, and evaluation setup fixed, we compare CRAFT against prompt level EvalTree clustering and untargeted random generation on four open source models, two professional domains (finance and legal), and 13 held out benchmarks disjoint from the diagnostic data. CRAFT achieves the strongest finance domain average for all four models under repeated temperature decoding; on legal domain, it is strongest for three of four models and remains within the decoding variance bands of the best baseline on the fourth. Diagnosing weaknesses at the level of rubric criteria, rather than prompts or categories, thus yields both a sharper picture of what a model cannot do and measurably better models after finetuning on that diagnosis.

Autonomous systems, such as self-driving cars and drones, have made significant strides in recent years by leveraging visual inputs and machine learning for decision-making and control. Despite their impressive performance, these vision-based controllers can make erroneous predictions when faced with novel or out-of-distribution inputs. Such errors can cascade into catastrophic system failures and compromise system safety. In this work, we compute Neural Reachable Tubes, which act as parameterized approximations of Backward Reachable Tubes to stress-test the vision-based controllers and mine their failure modes. The identified failures are then used to enhance the system safety through both offline and online methods. The online approach involves training a classifier as a run-time failure monitor to detect closed-loop, system-level failures, subsequently triggering a fallback controller that robustly handles these detected failures to preserve system safety. For the offline approach, we improve the original controller via incremental training using a carefully augmented failure dataset, resulting in a more robust controller that is resistant to the known failure modes. In either approach, the system is safeguarded against shortcomings that transcend the vision-based controller and pertain to the closed-loop safety of the overall system. We validate the proposed approaches on an autonomous aircraft taxiing task that involves using a vision-based controller to guide the aircraft towards the centerline of the runway. Our results show the efficacy of the proposed algorithms in identifying and handling system-level failures, outperforming methods that rely on controller prediction error or uncertainty quantification for identifying system failures.

Multi-agent systems powered by large language models (LLMs) are transforming enterprise automation, yet systematic evaluation methodologies for assessing tool-use reliability remain underdeveloped. We introduce a comprehensive diagnostic framework that leverages big data analytics to evaluate procedural reliability in intelligent agent systems, addressing critical needs for SME-centric deployment in privacy-sensitive environments. Our approach features a 12-category error taxonomy capturing failure modes across tool initialization, parameter handling, execution, and result interpretation. Through systematic evaluation of 1,980 deterministic test instances spanning both open-weight models (Qwen2.5 series, Functionary) and proprietary alternatives (GPT-4, Claude 3.5/3.7) across diverse edge hardware configurations, we identify actionable reliability thresholds for production deployment. Our analysis reveals that procedural reliability, particularly tool initialization failures, constitutes the primary bottleneck for smaller models, while qwen2.5:32b achieves flawless performance matching GPT-4.1. The framework demonstrates that mid-sized models (qwen2.5:14b) offer practical accuracy-efficiency trade-offs on commodity hardware (96.6\% success rate, 7.3 s latency), enabling cost-effective intelligent agent deployment for resource-constrained organizations. This work establishes foundational infrastructure for systematic reliability evaluation of tool-augmented multi-agent AI systems.

Mathematical reasoning has long served as a stringent test of machine intelligence; over the past decade, it has moved from a niche problem within NLP to one of the most consequential AI frontiers. This survey provides a unified account of the field's evolution, from early rule-based math word problem (MWP) solvers and template-driven geometry systems, through neural expression generation and LLM prompting, to contemporary reasoning models, multi-agent systems, neuro-symbolic theorem provers, and verified discovery workflows. We organize the landscape along four axes: (i) informal reasoning over text and diagrams, spanning MWP solving, multimodal geometry, and VLMs; (ii) formal reasoning in proof assistants, including autoformalization, tactic prediction, compiler-guided repair, and proof search; (iii) mathematical discovery, where systems propose constructions, improve bounds, or assist attacks on open problems; and (iv) the inference and training-time techniques, including CoT prompting, tool use, process reward models, and RLVR, that increasingly connect generation with verification. We catalog major benchmarks across grade-school arithmetic, competition mathematics, geometry, formal proving, multimodal and multilingual reasoning, and expert evaluation, and we examine benchmark saturation, contamination, reporting mismatches, and the distinction between pass@1, majority voting, and verifier-assisted pass@k. We critically assess failure modes: brittleness under perturbation, reward hacking, multimodal grounding failures, fragile formalization, and the energy cost of reasoning-scale inference. Drawing on recent perspectives from working mathematicians, we identify future directions centered on verified-discovery workflows, reasoning efficiency, and infrastructure to make AI-assisted formalization broadly usable. Companion materials: https://github.com/Starscream-11813/awesome-AI4Math.

Accurate remaining useful life (RUL) prediction hinges on the quality of health indicators (HIs), yet existing methods often fail to disentangle complex degradation mechanisms in multi-sensor systems or quantify uncertainty in HI reliability. This paper introduces a novel framework for HI construction, advancing three key contributions. First, we adapt Reconstruction along Projected Pathways (RaPP) as a health indicator (HI) for RUL prediction for the first time, showing that it outperforms traditional reconstruction error metrics. Second, we show that augmenting RaPP-derived HIs with aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty quantification (UQ) via Monte Carlo dropout and probabilistic latent spaces- significantly improves RUL-prediction robustness. Third, and most critically, we propose indicator groups, a paradigm that isolates sensor subsets to model system-specific degradations, giving rise to our novel method, I-GLIDE which enables interpretable, mechanism-specific diagnostics. Evaluated on data sourced from aerospace and manufacturing systems, our approach achieves marked improvements in accuracy and generalizability compared to state-of-the-art HI methods while providing actionable insights into system failure pathways. This work bridges the gap between anomaly detection and prognostics, offering a principled framework for uncertainty-aware degradation modeling in complex systems.

In industrial settings, surface defects on steel can significantly compromise its service life and elevate potential safety risks. Traditional defect detection methods predominantly rely on manual inspection, which suffers from low efficiency and high costs. Although automated defect detection approaches based on Convolutional Neural Networks(e.g., Mask R-CNN) have advanced rapidly, their reliability remains challenged due to data annotation uncertainties during deep model training and overfitting issues. These limitations may lead to detection deviations when processing the given new test samples, rendering automated detection processes unreliable. To address this challenge, we first evaluate the detection model's practical performance through calibration data that satisfies the independent and identically distributed (i.i.d) condition with test data. Specifically, we define a loss function for each calibration sample to quantify detection error rates, such as the complement of recall rate and false discovery rate. Subsequently, we derive a statistically rigorous threshold based on a user-defined risk level to identify high-probability defective pixels in test images, thereby constructing prediction sets (e.g., defect regions). This methodology ensures that the expected error rate (mean error rate) on the test set remains strictly bounced by the predefined risk level. Additionally, we observe a negative correlation between the average prediction set size and the risk level on the test set, establishing a statistically rigorous metric for assessing detection model uncertainty. Furthermore, our study demonstrates robust and efficient control over the expected test set error rate across varying calibration-to-test partitioning ratios, validating the method's adaptability and operational effectiveness.

Assessing scientific claims requires identifying, extracting, and reasoning with multimodal data expressed in information-rich figures in scientific literature. Despite the large body of work in scientific QA, figure captioning, and other multimodal reasoning tasks over chart-based data, there are no readily usable multimodal benchmarks that directly test claim verification abilities. To remedy this gap, we introduce a new benchmark MuSciClaims accompanied by diagnostics tasks. We automatically extract supported claims from scientific articles, which we manually perturb to produce contradicted claims. The perturbations are designed to test for a specific set of claim verification capabilities. We also introduce a suite of diagnostic tasks that help understand model failures. Our results show most vision-language models are poor (~0.3-0.5 F1), with even the best model only achieving 0.72 F1. They are also biased towards judging claims as supported, likely misunderstanding nuanced perturbations within the claims. Our diagnostics show models are bad at localizing correct evidence within figures, struggle with aggregating information across modalities, and often fail to understand basic components of the figure.

Semiconductor lasers have been rapidly evolving to meet the demands of next-generation optical networks. This imposes much more stringent requirements on the laser reliability, which are dominated by degradation mechanisms (e.g., sudden degradation) limiting the semiconductor laser lifetime. Physics-based approaches are often used to characterize the degradation behavior analytically, yet explicit domain knowledge and accurate mathematical models are required. Building such models can be very challenging due to a lack of a full understanding of the complex physical processes inducing the degradation under various operating conditions. To overcome the aforementioned limitations, we propose a new data-driven approach, extracting useful insights from the operational monitored data to predict the degradation trend without requiring any specific knowledge or using any physical model. The proposed approach is based on an unsupervised technique, a conditional variational autoencoder, and validated using vertical-cavity surface-emitting laser (VCSEL) and tunable edge emitting laser reliability data. The experimental results confirm that our model (i) achieves a good degradation prediction and generalization performance by yielding an F1 score of 95.3%, (ii) outperforms several baseline ML based anomaly detection techniques, and (iii) helps to shorten the aging tests by early predicting the failed devices before the end of the test and thereby saving costs

AI scientist systems, capable of autonomously executing the full research workflow from hypothesis generation and experimentation to paper writing, hold significant potential for accelerating scientific discovery. However, the internal workflow of these systems have not been closely examined. This lack of scrutiny poses a risk of introducing flaws that could undermine the integrity, reliability, and trustworthiness of their research outputs. In this paper, we identify four potential failure modes in contemporary AI scientist systems: inappropriate benchmark selection, data leakage, metric misuse, and post-hoc selection bias. To examine these risks, we design controlled experiments that isolate each failure mode while addressing challenges unique to evaluating AI scientist systems. Our assessment of two prominent open-source AI scientist systems reveals the presence of several failures, across a spectrum of severity, which can be easily overlooked in practice. Finally, we demonstrate that access to trace logs and code from the full automated workflow enables far more effective detection of such failures than examining the final paper alone. We thus recommend journals and conferences evaluating AI-generated research to mandate submission of these artifacts alongside the paper to ensure transparency, accountability, and reproducibility.

Existing evaluation frameworks for large language models -- including HELM, MT-Bench, AgentBench, and BIG-bench -- are designed for controlled, single-session, lab-scale settings. They do not address the evaluation challenges that emerge when agentic AI systems operate continuously in production: compounding decision errors, tool failure cascades, non-deterministic output drift, and the absence of ground truth for long-horizon tasks. This paper makes three contributions. First, we present a taxonomy of seven failure modes unique to production agentic systems, each grounded in observations from systems operating at billion-event scale. Second, we demonstrate empirically where standard metrics -- ROUGE, BERTScore, accuracy/AUC, and the agentic benchmarks above -- fail to detect each failure mode. Third, we propose PAEF (Production Agentic Evaluation Framework), a five-dimension evaluation framework with an open-source reference implementation, designed for continuous evaluation on production traffic rather than episodic benchmark runs. Our analysis shows that standard metrics fail to detect four of the seven failure modes entirely and detect three others only after a lag of multiple evaluation cycles.

Large language model (LLM)-based multi-agent systems are challenging to debug because failures often arise from long, branching interaction traces. The prevailing practice is to leverage LLMs for log-based failure localization, attributing errors to a specific agent and step. However, this paradigm has two key limitations: (i) log-only debugging lacks validation, producing untested hypotheses, and (ii) single-step or single-agent attribution is often ill-posed, as we find that multiple distinct interventions can independently repair the failed task. To address the first limitation, we introduce DoVer, an intervention-driven debugging framework, which augments hypothesis generation with active verification through targeted interventions (e.g., editing messages, altering plans). For the second limitation, rather than evaluating on attribution accuracy, we focus on measuring whether the system resolves the failure or makes quantifiable progress toward task success, reflecting a more outcome-oriented view of debugging. Within the Magnetic-One agent framework, on the datasets derived from GAIA and AssistantBench, DoVer flips 18-28% of failed trials into successes, achieves up to 16% milestone progress, and validates or refutes 30-60% of failure hypotheses. DoVer also performs effectively on a different dataset (GSMPlus) and agent framework (AG2), where it recovers 49% of failed trials. These results highlight intervention as a practical mechanism for improving reliability in agentic systems and open opportunities for more robust, scalable debugging methods for LLM-based multi-agent systems. Project website and code will be available at https://aka.ms/DoVer.

AI systems deployed in legal workflows hallucinate at rates that aggregate metrics report at ~52%, but this average conceals where errors concentrate and in which direction they run, leaving compliance officers without an actionable signal for trustworthy deployment. We present LegalHalluLens, an auditing framework with three components: typed hallucination profiles across four legally-motivated claim categories (numeric, temporal, obligation/entitlement, factual) over CUAD (Hendrycks et al., 2021); a Risk Direction Index (RDI) that reduces omission-versus-invention bias to a single deployment-comparable scalar; and a typed debate pipeline calibrated to both magnitudes and directions. Across 510 contracts and 249,252 clause-level instances we measure a within-model gap of approximately 38-40 pp between obligation/numeric and temporal claims that aggregate reporting hides, and show that two systems with matched 52% rates can carry opposite RDIs. The debate pipeline reduces fabricated detections by 45% with per-category gains tracking the diagnosis, matching commercial APIs with a substantially smaller backbone (4B active parameters). Typed profiles and RDI surface failure modes that aggregate metrics hide; we further show these diagnostics serve as calibration inputs for multi-agent debate pipelines, where Skeptic challenges and asymmetric gates targeted at measured failure modes outperform generically-tuned debate. The framework supports direction-aware procurement, accountability, and agent design for legal AI deployed in the wild.

We introduce self-invoking code generation, a new task designed to evaluate the progressive reasoning and problem-solving capabilities of LLMs. In this task, models are presented with a base problem and a related, more complex problem. They must solve the base problem and then utilize its solution to address the more complex one. This work features three key contributions. First, we propose a general recipe for generating more challenging versions of existing benchmarks, resulting in three new benchmarks: HumanEval Pro, MBPP Pro, and BigCodeBench-Lite Pro, specifically designed to assess LLMs on self-invoking code generation. Second, from the analysis of experimental results over twenty LLMs on our benchmarks, we have two important observations: (i) Most LLMs excel in traditional code generation benchmarks like HumanEval and MBPP, but their performance declines on self-invoking tasks. For example, o1-mini achieves 96.2% pass@1 on HumanEval but only 76.2% on HumanEval Pro. (ii) On self-invoking code generation task, the instruction-tuned models demonstrate only marginal improvements compared to the base models. Third, we disclose the types of failure modes that exist in our evaluation results. All these results underscore the need for further advancements in self-invoking code generation tasks and provide a new direction for future research on enhancing LLMs' code reasoning capabilities.

This paper systematically diagnoses the training failure modes of Token-Choice sparse Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) on video Diffusion Transformers. Starting from a pretrained dense model of about 5 billion parameters, we convert it into an MoE architecture following three laws: routed experts exactly clone the original FFN weights, shared experts are initialized to zero for verification and then to extremely small non-zero noise for actual training, while only the gating networks start from random initialization. Experiments reveal a hierarchy of five failure modes: (1) linear routers suffer global soft saturation with complete expert homogenization; (2) MLP routers introduce selective deadlock, where roughly one-third of layers degenerate into a single-expert mode that cannot be prevented by increasing the auxiliary loss; (3) cross-attention routers exhibit preliminary self-recovery, yet about nine layers remain stubbornly deadlocked; (4) deadlocked layers display a U-shaped distribution, concentrated in shallow visual processing layers and deep semantic integration layers; (5) bfloat16 mixed precision causes tiny weight updates to be truncated to zero by hardware. Based on routing decision time series over 65 million tokens across 5,000 training steps, we propose the Functional Redundancy Hypothesis: deadlock is a rational waiting strategy before the shared expert matures within the gate-shared expert-routed expert triadic system. This hypothesis is supported by the theory of functional redundancy in systems biology. On the engineering side, we summarize the Three Laws of dense-to-MoE conversion and provide a complete solution for the bfloat16 precision trap. We calibrate the current capability boundary of the Token-Choice paradigm and outline a three-step evolutionary roadmap from visual unification to a world model.

Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) have tremendous potential to improve the accuracy, availability, and cost-effectiveness of healthcare by providing automated solutions or serving as aids to medical professionals. Despite promising first steps in developing medical MLLMs in the past few years, their capabilities and limitations are not well-understood. Recently, many benchmark datasets have been proposed that test the general medical knowledge of such models across a variety of medical areas. However, the systematic failure modes and vulnerabilities of such models are severely underexplored with most medical benchmarks failing to expose the shortcomings of existing models in this safety-critical domain. In this paper, we introduce MediConfusion, a challenging medical Visual Question Answering (VQA) benchmark dataset, that probes the failure modes of medical MLLMs from a vision perspective. We reveal that state-of-the-art models are easily confused by image pairs that are otherwise visually dissimilar and clearly distinct for medical experts. Strikingly, all available models (open-source or proprietary) achieve performance below random guessing on MediConfusion, raising serious concerns about the reliability of existing medical MLLMs for healthcare deployment. We also extract common patterns of model failure that may help the design of a new generation of more trustworthy and reliable MLLMs in healthcare.

Heart diseases remain the leading cause of mortality worldwide, implying approximately 18 million deaths according to the WHO. In particular, heart failures (HF) press the healthcare industry to develop systems for their early, rapid, and effective prediction. This work presents an automatic system based on a novel framework which combines Modal Decomposition and Masked Autoencoders (MAE) to extend the application from heart disease classification to the more challenging and specific task of heart failure time prediction, not previously addressed to the best of authors' knowledge. This system comprises two stages. The first one transforms the data from a database of echocardiography video sequences into a large collection of annotated images compatible with the training phase of machine learning-based frameworks and deep learning-based ones. This stage includes the use of the Higher Order Dynamic Mode Decomposition (HODMD) algorithm for both data augmentation and feature extraction. The second stage builds and trains a Vision Transformer (ViT). MAEs based on a combined scheme of self-supervised (SSL) and supervised learning, so far barely explored in the literature about heart failure prediction, are adopted to effectively train the ViT from scratch, even with scarce databases. The designed neural network analyses in real-time images from echocardiography sequences to estimate the time of happening a heart failure. This approach demonstrates to improve prediction accuracy from scarce databases and to be superior to several established ViT and Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) architectures. The source code will be incorporated into the next version release of the ModelFLOWs-app software (https://github.com/modelflows/ModelFLOWs-app).

This paper proposes one of the first clinical applications of multimodal large language models (LLMs) as an assistant for radiologists to check errors in their reports. We created an evaluation dataset from two real-world radiology datasets (MIMIC-CXR and IU-Xray), with 1,000 subsampled reports each. A subset of original reports was modified to contain synthetic errors by introducing various type of mistakes. The evaluation contained two difficulty levels: SIMPLE for binary error-checking and COMPLEX for identifying error types. LLaVA (Large Language and Visual Assistant) variant models, including our instruction-tuned model, were used for the evaluation. Additionally, a domain expert evaluation was conducted on a small test set. At the SIMPLE level, the LLaVA v1.5 model outperformed other publicly available models. Instruction tuning significantly enhanced performance by 47.4% and 25.4% on MIMIC-CXR and IU-Xray data, respectively. The model also surpassed the domain experts accuracy in the MIMIC-CXR dataset by 1.67%. Notably, among the subsets (N=21) of the test set where a clinician did not achieve the correct conclusion, the LLaVA ensemble mode correctly identified 71.4% of these cases. This study marks a promising step toward utilizing multi-modal LLMs to enhance diagnostic accuracy in radiology. The ensemble model demonstrated comparable performance to clinicians, even capturing errors overlooked by humans. Nevertheless, future work is needed to improve the model ability to identify the types of inconsistency.

This work presents a probabilistic digital twin framework for response prediction in dynamical systems governed by misspecified physics. The approach integrates Gaussian Process Latent Force Models (GPLFM) and Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) to enable end-to-end uncertainty-aware inference and prediction. In the diagnosis phase, model-form errors (MFEs) are treated as latent input forces to a nominal linear dynamical system and jointly estimated with system states using GPLFM from sensor measurements. A BNN is then trained on posterior samples to learn a probabilistic nonlinear mapping from system states to MFEs, while capturing diagnostic uncertainty. For prognosis, this mapping is used to generate pseudo-measurements, enabling state prediction via Kalman filtering. The framework allows for systematic propagation of uncertainty from diagnosis to prediction, a key capability for trustworthy digital twins. The framework is demonstrated using four nonlinear examples: a single degree of freedom (DOF) oscillator, a multi-DOF system, and two established benchmarks -- the Bouc-Wen hysteretic system and the Silverbox experimental dataset -- highlighting its predictive accuracy and robustness to model misspecification.

Vision-language-action (VLA) models provide a promising paradigm for scalable robotic manipulation, yet their reliance on success-only behavioral cloning leaves them brittle; lacking corrective training signals, minor execution errors rapidly compound into unrecoverable, out-of-distribution failures. To address this limitation, we propose Adaptive Failure-Informed Learning (AFIL), an end-to-end framework that leverages failure trajectories as adaptive negative guidance for diffusion- and flow-based VLA policies. AFIL uses a pretrained VLA to generate failure rollouts online, avoiding the need for handcrafted failure-mode design or human-in-the-loop recovery. It then jointly trains Dual Action Generators (DAGs) for successful and failed behaviors while sharing a common vision-language backbone, enabling efficient failure-aware policy learning with limited parameter overhead. During sampling, the failure generator adaptively steers action generation away from failure-prone regions and toward more reliable success modes, with guidance strength determined by the per-diffusion-step distance between success and failure distributions. Experiments across in-domain and out-of-domain robotic manipulation tasks, covering both short- and long-horizon settings, show that AFIL consistently improves task success rates and robustness over existing VLA baselines, demonstrating its effectiveness, efficiency, and generality.

Imitation learning (IL) with generative models, such as diffusion and flow matching, has enabled robots to perform complex, long-horizon tasks. However, distribution shifts from unseen environments or compounding action errors can still cause unpredictable and unsafe behavior, leading to task failure. Early failure prediction during runtime is therefore essential for deploying robots in human-centered and safety-critical environments. We propose FIPER, a general framework for Failure Prediction at Runtime for generative IL policies that does not require failure data. FIPER identifies two key indicators of impending failure: (i) out-of-distribution (OOD) observations detected via random network distillation in the policy's embedding space, and (ii) high uncertainty in generated actions measured by a novel action-chunk entropy score. Both failure prediction scores are calibrated using a small set of successful rollouts via conformal prediction. A failure alarm is triggered when both indicators, aggregated over short time windows, exceed their thresholds. We evaluate FIPER across five simulation and real-world environments involving diverse failure modes. Our results demonstrate that FIPER better distinguishes actual failures from benign OOD situations and predicts failures more accurately and earlier than existing methods. We thus consider this work an important step towards more interpretable and safer generative robot policies. Code, data and videos are available at https://tum-lsy.github.io/fiper_website.

Large language model (LLM) agents increasingly rely on external memory systems to remain consistent across long-horizon interactions, but little empirical work has been done to understand the specific failure modes and design choices that these systems present. Existing benchmarks report aggregate question-answering accuracy and treat memory systems as black boxes, making it impossible to attribute an incorrect answer to a particular failure mode of the system. We introduce MemFail, a diagnostic benchmark that isolates the failure modes of modern LLM memory systems. We begin by formalizing memory systems as the composition of three canonical operations -- summarization, storage, and retrieval -- and identify the potential failure modes induced by each. Based on these hypothesized failure modes, we construct five datasets spanning four tasks, each adversarially designed to test a specific operation of a memory system. Using these datasets, we evaluate four state-of-the-art memory systems on MemFail and demonstrate how MemFail can be used to empirically understand the tradeoffs induced by differences in memory system architectures.

Most vehicle predictive maintenance systems rely exclusively on internal diagnostic signals and are validated on deterministic synthetic data, limiting the credibility of reported metrics. This paper presents a simulation-validated proof-of-concept framework for V2X-augmented predictive maintenance, integrating on-board sensor streams with external contextual signals -- road quality, weather, traffic density, and driver behaviour -- acquired via V2X communication and third-party APIs, with inference at the vehicle edge. Field validation on instrumented vehicles is identified as the required next step. Three experiments address common shortcomings of prior work. A feature group ablation study shows that V2X contextual features contribute a 2.6-point F1 gain, with full context removal reducing macro F1 from 0.855 to 0.807. On the AI4I 2020 real-world industrial failure dataset (10,000 samples, five failure modes), LightGBM achieves AUC-ROC of 0.973 under 5-fold stratified CV with SMOTE confined to training folds. A noise sensitivity analysis shows macro F1 remains above 0.88 under low noise and degrades to 0.74 under very high noise. SHAP analysis confirms that V2X and engineered interaction features rank among the top 15 predictors. Edge inference is estimated to reduce latency from 3.5s to under 1.0s versus cloud-only processing.

The Model Context Protocol (MCP) standardizes how AI agents discover and invoke external tools, with over 10,000 active servers and 97 million monthly SDK downloads as of early 2026. Yet MCP does not yet standardize how agents safely operate those tools at production scale. Three protocol-level primitives remain missing: identity propagation, adaptive tool budgeting, and structured error semantics. This paper identifies these gaps through field lessons from an enterprise deployment of an AI agent platform integrated with a major cloud provider's MCP servers (client name redacted). We propose three mechanisms to fill them: (1) the Context-Aware Broker Protocol (CABP), which extends JSON-RPC with identity-scoped request routing via a six-stage broker pipeline; (2) Adaptive Timeout Budget Allocation (ATBA), which frames sequential tool invocation as a budget allocation problem over heterogeneous latency distributions; and (3) the Structured Error Recovery Framework (SERF), which provides machine-readable failure semantics that enable deterministic agent self-correction. We organize production failure modes into five design dimensions (server contracts, user context, timeouts, errors, and observability), document concrete failure vignettes, and present a production readiness checklist. All three algorithms are formalized as testable hypotheses with reproducible experimental methodology. Field observations demonstrate that while MCP provides a solid protocol foundation, reliable agent tool integration requires infrastructure-level mechanisms that the specification does not yet address.

We introduce FailureSensorIQ, a novel Multi-Choice Question-Answering (MCQA) benchmarking system designed to assess the ability of Large Language Models (LLMs) to reason and understand complex, domain-specific scenarios in Industry 4.0. Unlike traditional QA benchmarks, our system focuses on multiple aspects of reasoning through failure modes, sensor data, and the relationships between them across various industrial assets. Through this work, we envision a paradigm shift where modeling decisions are not only data-driven using statistical tools like correlation analysis and significance tests, but also domain-driven by specialized LLMs which can reason about the key contributors and useful patterns that can be captured with feature engineering. We evaluate the Industrial knowledge of over a dozen LLMs-including GPT-4, Llama, and Mistral-on FailureSensorIQ from different lens using Perturbation-Uncertainty-Complexity analysis, Expert Evaluation study, Asset-Specific Knowledge Gap analysis, ReAct agent using external knowledge-bases. Even though closed-source models with strong reasoning capabilities approach expert-level performance, the comprehensive benchmark reveals a significant drop in performance that is fragile to perturbations, distractions, and inherent knowledge gaps in the models. We also provide a real-world case study of how LLMs can drive the modeling decisions on 3 different failure prediction datasets related to various assets. We release: (a) expert-curated MCQA for various industrial assets, (b) FailureSensorIQ benchmark and Hugging Face leaderboard based on MCQA built from non-textual data found in ISO documents, and (c) LLMFeatureSelector, an LLM-based feature selection scikit-learn pipeline. The software is available at https://github.com/IBM/FailureSensorIQ.

Combined electric power system and High-Altitude Electromagnetic Pulse (HEMP) models are being developed to determine the effect of a HEMP on the US power grid. The work relies primarily on deterministic methods; however, it is computationally untenable to evaluate the E1 HEMP response of large numbers of grid components distributed across a large interconnection. Further, the deterministic assessment of these components' failures are largely unachievable. E1 HEMP laboratory testing of the components is accomplished, but is expensive, leaving few data points to construct failure models of grid components exposed to E1 HEMP. The use of Bayesian priors, developed using the subject matter expertise, combined with the minimal test data in a Bayesian inference process, provides the basis for the development of more robust and cost-effective statistical component failure models. These can be used with minimal computational burden in a simulation environment such as sampling of Cumulative Distribution Functions (CDFs).

Existing benchmarks measure capability -- whether a model succeeds on a single attempt -- but production deployments require reliability -- consistent success across repeated attempts on tasks of varying duration. We show these properties diverge systematically as task duration grows, and that pass@1 on short tasks is structurally blind to this divergence. We introduce a reliability science framework for long-horizon LLM agents with four metrics: Reliability Decay Curve (RDC), Variance Amplification Factor (VAF), Graceful Degradation Score (GDS), and Meltdown Onset Point (MOP). We evaluate 10 models across 23,392 episodes on a 396-task benchmark spanning four duration buckets and three domains. Key findings: (1) reliability decay is domain-stratified -- SE GDS drops from 0.90 to 0.44 while document processing is nearly flat (0.74 to 0.71); (2) VAF bifurcates by capability tier -- high VAF is a capability signature, not an instability signal; (3) capability and reliability rankings diverge substantially, with multi-rank inversions at long horizons; (4) frontier models have the highest meltdown rates (up to 19%) because they attempt ambitious multi-step strategies that sometimes spiral; and (5) memory scaffolds universally hurt long-horizon performance across all 10 models. These results motivate reliability as a first-class evaluation dimension alongside capability.

Monitoring complex industrial assets relies on engineer-authored symbolic rules that trigger based on sensor conditions and prompt technicians to perform corrective actions. The bottleneck is not detection but response: translating rules into maintenance steps requires asset-specific knowledge gained through years of practice. We investigate whether LLMs can serve as decision support for this rule-to-action step and introduce , a benchmark of 6{,}690 expert-validated multiple-choice questions from 118 rule-action pairs across 16 asset types. We contribute (i) a symbolic-to-MCQA pipeline normalizing rules to Disjunctive Normal Form with embedding-based distractor sampling, (ii) five variants probing distinct failure modes (Pro, Pert, Verbose, Aug, Rationale), and (iii) a benchmark of 29 LLMs and 4 embedding baselines. A human evaluation (9 practitioners, mean 45.0\%) confirms requires specialist knowledge beyond operational experience. Three findings stand out. The frontier has closed: the top three LLMs lie within one Macro point, with Bradley-Terry Elo placing claude-opus-4-6 30 points above the next model. Yet \,Pro exposes brittleness, with every model losing 13--60\% relative accuracy under distractor expansion. \,Aug exposes pattern-matching: under condition inversion, frontier models still select the original answer 49--63\% of the time. The deployment bottleneck is not capability but calibration: frontier models handle template-style fault detection but break under structural perturbation.

Imitation learning (IL) policies in robotics deliver strong performance in controlled settings but remain brittle in real-world deployments: rare events such as hardware faults, defective parts, unexpected human actions, or any state that lies outside the training distribution can lead to failed executions. Vision-based Anomaly Detection (AD) methods emerged as an appropriate solution to detect these anomalous failure states but do not distinguish failures from benign deviations. We introduce FIDeL (Failure Identification in Demonstration Learning), a policy-independent failure detection module. Leveraging recent AD methods, FIDeL builds a compact representation of nominal demonstrations and aligns incoming observations via optimal transport matching to produce anomaly scores and heatmaps. Spatio-temporal thresholds are derived with an extension of conformal prediction, and a Vision-Language Model (VLM) performs semantic filtering to discriminate benign anomalies from genuine failures. We also introduce BotFails, a multimodal dataset of real-world tasks for failure detection in robotics. FIDeL consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines, yielding +5.30% percent AUROC in anomaly detection and +17.38% percent failure-detection accuracy on BotFails compared to existing methods.

Discriminative approaches to classification often learn shortcuts that hold in-distribution but fail even under minor distribution shift. This failure mode stems from an overreliance on features that are spuriously correlated with the label. We show that generative classifiers, which use class-conditional generative models, can avoid this issue by modeling all features, both core and spurious, instead of mainly spurious ones. These generative classifiers are simple to train, avoiding the need for specialized augmentations, strong regularization, extra hyperparameters, or knowledge of the specific spurious correlations to avoid. We find that diffusion-based and autoregressive generative classifiers achieve state-of-the-art performance on five standard image and text distribution shift benchmarks and reduce the impact of spurious correlations in realistic applications, such as medical or satellite datasets. Finally, we carefully analyze a Gaussian toy setting to understand the inductive biases of generative classifiers, as well as the data properties that determine when generative classifiers outperform discriminative ones.

Tool-using LLM agents are mostly evaluated assuming all tools work. When a tool times out, returns a week-stale value, or has its description poisoned in deployment, the developer needs a controlled way to reproduce the failure, test a fix, and confirm the fix worked before deployment. We present AgentCheck, an open-source web workbench that turns an MCP server into an intervention surface. AgentCheck runs an agent against its real tools and records every tool response, then re-runs the agent with the response perturbed by a fault (12 types) injector. Matching tool calls are replayed from cache, and later tool calls go live after the agent diverges. This yields a reproduce-intervene-confirm loop: the developer toggles a mitigation, re-runs against the identical fault, and sees if the failure goes away. Scoring has two parts: deterministic pass/fail rules, plus an LLM judge for interpretive labels, validated against human annotations. Across five agents, the best passes 105/120 scenarios and the weakest only 77. The failures are usually silent, confident use of incorrect tool outputs rather than crashes. On the weakest agent, a retry mitigation raises success on timeout error faults from as few as 30% of cases to 100%, whereas stale-data faults remain near 3-4 of 10 regardless of the mitigation. AgentCheck makes these failure modes reproducible, comparable, and verifiable before deployment.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown remarkable success in supporting a wide range of knowledge-intensive tasks. In specialized domains, there is growing interest in leveraging LLMs to assist subject matter experts with domain-specific challenges. However, deploying LLMs as SaaS solutions raises data privacy concerns, while many open-source models demand significant computational resources for effective domain adaptation and deployment. A promising alternative is to develop smaller, domain-specialized LLMs, though this approach is often constrained by the lack of high-quality domain-specific training data. In this work, we address these limitations by presenting a cost-efficient and scalable training pipeline that combines guided synthetic data generation from a small seed corpus with bottom-up domain data curation. Our pipeline integrates Domain-Adaptive Pretraining (DAPT), Domain-specific Supervised Fine-tuning (DSFT), and Direct Preference Optimization (DPO) to train effective small-scale models for specialized use cases. We demonstrate this approach through DiagnosticSLM, a 3B-parameter domain-specific model tailored for fault diagnosis, root cause analysis, and repair recommendation in industrial settings. To evaluate model performance, we introduce four domain-specific benchmarks: multiple-choice questions (DiagnosticMCQ), question answering (DiagnosticQA), sentence completion (DiagnosticComp), and summarization (DiagnosticSum). DiagnosticSLM achieves up to 25% accuracy improvement over open-source models of comparable or larger size (2B-9B) on the MCQ task, while also outperforming or matching them in other tasks, demonstrating effective domain-specific reasoning and generalization capabilities.

Despite growing enthusiasm for Multi-Agent Systems (MAS), where multiple LLM agents collaborate to accomplish tasks, their performance gains across popular benchmarks remain minimal compared to single-agent frameworks. This gap highlights the need to analyze the challenges hindering MAS effectiveness. In this paper, we present the first comprehensive study of MAS challenges. We analyze five popular MAS frameworks across over 150 tasks, involving six expert human annotators. We identify 14 unique failure modes and propose a comprehensive taxonomy applicable to various MAS frameworks. This taxonomy emerges iteratively from agreements among three expert annotators per study, achieving a Cohen's Kappa score of 0.88. These fine-grained failure modes are organized into 3 categories, (i) specification and system design failures, (ii) inter-agent misalignment, and (iii) task verification and termination. To support scalable evaluation, we integrate MASFT with LLM-as-a-Judge. We also explore if identified failures could be easily prevented by proposing two interventions: improved specification of agent roles and enhanced orchestration strategies. Our findings reveal that identified failures require more complex solutions, highlighting a clear roadmap for future research. We open-source our dataset and LLM annotator.

Fast, geometry-generalizing surrogates for unsteady flow remain challenging. We present a time-dependent, geometry-aware Deep Operator Network that predicts velocity fields for moderate-Re flows around parametric and non-parametric shapes. The model encodes geometry via a signed distance field (SDF) trunk and flow history via a CNN branch, trained on 841 high-fidelity simulations. On held-out shapes, it attains sim 5% relative L2 single-step error and up to 1000X speedups over CFD. We provide physics-centric rollout diagnostics, including phase error at probes and divergence norms, to quantify long-horizon fidelity. These reveal accurate near-term transients but error accumulation in fine-scale wakes, most pronounced for sharp-cornered geometries. We analyze failure modes and outline practical mitigations. Code, splits, and scripts are openly released at: https://github.com/baskargroup/TimeDependent-DeepONet to support reproducibility and benchmarking.

Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) has emerged as a common paradigm to use Large Language Models (LLMs) alongside private and up-to-date knowledge bases. In this work, we address the challenges of using LLM-as-a-Judge when evaluating grounded answers generated by RAG systems. To assess the calibration and discrimination capabilities of judge models, we identify 7 generator failure modes and introduce GroUSE (Grounded QA Unitary Scoring of Evaluators), a meta-evaluation benchmark of 144 unit tests. This benchmark reveals that existing automated RAG evaluation frameworks often overlook important failure modes, even when using GPT-4 as a judge. To improve on the current design of automated RAG evaluation frameworks, we propose a novel pipeline and find that while closed models perform well on GroUSE, state-of-the-art open-source judges do not generalize to our proposed criteria, despite strong correlation with GPT-4's judgement. Our findings suggest that correlation with GPT-4 is an incomplete proxy for the practical performance of judge models and should be supplemented with evaluations on unit tests for precise failure mode detection. We further show that finetuning Llama-3 on GPT-4's reasoning traces significantly boosts its evaluation capabilities, improving upon both correlation with GPT-4's evaluations and calibration on reference situations.

When considering the accuracy of sensors in an automated vehicle (AV), it is not sufficient to evaluate the performance of any given sensor in isolation. Rather, the performance of any individual sensor must be considered in the context of the overall system design. Techniques like redundancy and different sensing modalities can reduce the chances of a sensing failure. Additionally, the use of safety models is essential to understanding whether any particular sensing failure is relevant. Only when the entire system design is taken into account can one properly understand the meaning of safety-relevant sensing failures in an AV. In this paper, we will consider what should actually constitute a sensing failure, how safety models play an important role in mitigating potential failures, how a system-level approach to safety will deliver a safe and scalable AV, and what an acceptable sensing failure rate should be considering the full picture of an AV's architecture.

This position paper argues that the machine learning community should prioritize early-stage quality assurance in annotation pipelines over the prevailing practice of late-stage validation. Data quality bottlenecks increasingly limit foundation model improvement, yet quality assurance research focuses almost exclusively on validation methods rather than validation timing. When validation occurs, not merely what methods are employed, fundamentally determines both error rates and annotation costs. This temporal neglect is puzzling given the well-established "shift-left" principle from software engineering, where empirical studies demonstrate 4--100x cost multipliers for defects detected in later stages (Boehm, 1981; Shull et al., 2002). Annotation pipelines exhibit analogous dynamics: errors caught before annotation begins cost a fraction of those discovered after review cycles complete. We propose a taxonomy of three QA trigger points, namely pre-annotation (T0), post-annotation (T1), and post-review (T2), that decompose annotation workflows into discrete validation opportunities. A parametric error-propagation model formalizes when timing affects final error rates versus only economics, making timing a measurable design variable rather than a configuration afterthought. A survey of 47 recent papers reveals that only 4% report when validation occurs, a striking gap given timing's demonstrated impact in adjacent fields. Without explicit attention to QA timing, the community risks optimizing validation methods while ignoring the structural variable that may matter most. Acting on this position requires three steps: researchers should report QA timing configurations alongside validation methods; annotation platforms should expose timing as a first-class parameter; and the community should run controlled experiments that measure stage-specific detection rates directly.

Post-Training Quantization (PTQ) is critical for the efficient deployment of Large Language Models (LLMs). While 4-bit quantization is widely regarded as an optimal trade-off, reducing the precision to 2-bit usually triggers a catastrophic ``performance cliff.'' It remains unclear whether the underlying mechanisms differ fundamentally. Consequently, we conduct a systematic mechanistic analysis, revealing two qualitatively distinct failure modes: Signal Degradation, where the computational patterns remain intact but information precision is impaired by cumulative error; and Computation Collapse, where key components fail to function, preventing correct information processing and destroying the signal in the early layers. Guided by this diagnosis, we conduct mechanism-aware interventions, demonstrating that targeted, training-free repair can mitigate Signal Degradation, but remains ineffective for Computation Collapse. Our findings provide a systematic diagnostic framework for PTQ failures and suggest that addressing Computation Collapse requires structural reconstruction rather than mere compensation.

Code agents can autonomously resolve GitHub issues, yet when they fail, current evaluation provides no visibility into where or why. Metrics such as Pass@1 collapse an entire execution into a single binary outcome, making it difficult to identify where and why the agent went wrong. To address this limitation, we introduce TRAJEVAL, a diagnostic framework that decomposes agent trajectories into three interpretable stages: search (file localization), read (function comprehension), and edit (modification targeting). For each stage, we compute precision and recall by comparing against reference patches. Analyzing 16,758 trajectories across three agent architectures and seven models, we find universal inefficiencies (all agents examine approximately 22x more functions than necessary) yet distinct failure modes: GPT-5 locates relevant code but targets edits incorrectly, while Qwen-32B fails at file discovery entirely. We validate that these diagnostics are predictive, achieving model-level Pass@1 prediction within 0.87-2.1% MAE, and actionable: real-time feedback based on trajectory signals improves two state-of-the-art models by 2.2-4.6 percentage points while reducing costs by 20-31%. These results demonstrate that our framework not only provides a more fine-grained analysis of agent behavior, but also translates diagnostic signals into tangible performance gains. More broadly, TRAJEVAL transforms agent evaluation beyond outcome-based benchmarking toward mechanism-driven diagnosis of agent success and failure.

Safe manipulation in unstructured environments for service robots is a challenging problem. A failure detection system is needed to monitor and detect unintended outcomes. We propose FINO-Net, a novel multimodal sensor fusion based deep neural network to detect and identify manipulation failures. We also introduce a multimodal dataset, containing 229 real-world manipulation data recorded with a Baxter robot. Our network combines RGB, depth and audio readings to effectively detect and classify failures. Results indicate that fusing RGB with depth and audio modalities significantly improves the performance. FINO-Net achieves 98.60% detection and 87.31% classification accuracy on our novel dataset. Code and data are publicly available at https://github.com/ardai/fino-net.

Large language model-driven multi-agent systems (LLM-MAS) excel at complex tasks, yet unreliable agents remain a key bottleneck to system-level reliability. Automatic failure attribution is therefore critical, but existing approaches, such as direct prediction of agent-error pairs and agent-first failure attribution, rely on local logs of agents and miss global failures that only manifest over full interaction trajectories, such as cross-step inconsistencies and inter-agent coordination errors. Moreover, directly predicting failures induces a large combinatorial search space, hindering fine-grained attribution. To address these challenges, we propose VerifyMAS, a hypothesis verification framework for agent failure attribution. Instead of directly predicting faulty agents and error types, VerifyMAS formulates and verifies failure hypotheses against full trajectories. This verification-based approach decomposes attribution into trajectory-level error validation and fine-grained agent localization, providing an error-first attribution approach that captures global failure patterns while substantially reducing the search space. We further introduce a hypothesis-based data construction strategy grounded in a structured error taxonomy and fine-tune a specialized LLM verifier model for trajectory-level failure verification and agent attribution. Experiments on Aegis-Bench and Who&When show that VerifyMAS consistently improves diverse backbone models, including open-source Qwen and API-based GPT models, outperforming prior methods without sacrificing inference efficiency for long multi-agent trajectories.

Multi-step enterprise agent tasks fail in a characteristic way: single-pass inference has no checkpoint between deciding an answer and committing to it. We study one production system (Leni) whose architecture installs such checkpoints: verification loops (execute, observe, compare, correct) staffed by lightweight task-specialized post-trained models. We evaluate the unmodified production configuration on three public benchmarks stressing distinct failure modes: SpreadsheetBench Verified (silent computation error), BullshitBench v2 (premise confabulation), and the GAIA validation split (cascade error over long tool chains). The full system improves over its frontier base model by +11.0 percentage points on SpreadsheetBench (91.25% vs 80.25%, n=400, p<0.001), +7 to +10 percentage points on BullshitBench (98% vs 91%, n=100), and roughly +15 points on GAIA validation (75.2% pass@1, n=165; 83.0% best-of-k). Our central contribution is a decomposition of that uplift: most of it comes from scaffolding, routing, and specialist models rather than from the verification step itself, whose isolated contribution is small (+1.5 points) but concentrated at the top of the score distribution, where it converts otherwise-failing tasks. We instrument the loop end-to-end, yielding an empirical verifier confusion matrix (catch rate about 0.20, fix rate 0.75, no false-alarm regressions) that grounds a compounding-reliability model. Specialist-swap ablations suggest that the loop's value depends on who observes it: replacing the small trained verifier with the generating frontier model eliminates most rescues. A valid-premise control shows zero over-rejections in 100 expert-level questions.

While Large Multimodal Models (LMMs) excel in general multimodal tasks, they lack the domain-specific knowledge for industrial vibration signal analysis. This paper introduces VSLLaVA, a comprehensive pipeline that utilizes expert knowledge-guided instruction tuning and evaluation to create an end-to-end LMM for signal analysis. To achieve this, we construct a novel Signal-Question-Answer (SQA) dataset using an expert rule-based signal generator. This dataset facilitates a two-stage learning procedure. The first step is efficient instruction fine-tuning with Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA), which imparts specialized signal identification capabilities. Subsequently, we designed a tailored Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) to refine the reasoning capabilities and enhance classification robustness. Then, a dual-mode evaluation framework is proposed, combining an LLM referee with expert rules for semantic assessment using quantitative metrics for numerical and textual accuracy, which reveals that VSLLaVA significantly improves performance in signal type identification and parameter analysis, and makes progress in the identification and parameter analysis of fault-related signals. This research demonstrates a viable approach for developing specialized foundational models for complex industrial applications and marks a transition from conventional task-specific systems to a cohesive, interactive foundational model.

Alarm fatigue in intensive care units (ICUs) is a well documented patient safety crisis. Clinical monitors generate 350 or more alarms per patient per day, out of which 72-99% are clinically irrelevant. Staff desensitization to non-actionable alarms increases the risk of missed true emergencies. This paper presents SigmaMedStat, a machine learning system that evaluates the trustworthiness of physiological alarm signals before clinical action is taken. Four approaches were evaluated on the PhysioNet/Computing in Cardiology Challenge 2015 dataset of 498 four-channel ICU alarm recordings. Primary contribution is a temporal modeling framework that splits each 60 second recording into six consecutive 10-second chunks, and this in turn generates Continuous Wavelet Transform (CWT) scalograms per chunk, encodes each chunk with a shared EfficientNet-B0 encoder, and passes the resulting feature sequence to a two-layer Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network. Five-fold stratified cross-validation yields a mean AUC of 0.822 +/- 0.016 (95% CI: [0.790,0.853]), compared to 0.641 for a static EfficientNet baseline trained on the full 60-second window. Ablation studies confirm that temporal chunking and multi-channel signal fusion both contribute independently to classification performance. Per-alarm type analysis reveals that Ventricular Flutter is the most accurately classified alarm type (AUC 0.820) while Asystole remains the hardest (AUC 0.722). Error analysis identifies 65 false negatives and 85 high-confidence misclassifications as the primary failure modes. All code and results are publicly available at https://github.com/Arun-K-Ram/sigmamedstat.

LLM agents are beginning to invoke industrial asset-management tools through the Model Context Protocol (MCP), yet whether they can act reliably on this substrate for safety-critical Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) is unanswered. Prior benchmarks conflate protocol fluency with reasoning, instrumentation failures with agent failures, and tool use with tool retrieval. We introduce PHMForge, an evaluation environment that closes each conflation. PHMForge ships 99 SME-authored scenarios across eight industrial asset classes spanning rotating equipment, aero-engines, and lithium-ion cells, on public datasets including NASA PCoE, served through 39 MCP-native tools wrapping published PHM algorithms (C-MAPSS, ISO~10816, Arrhenius capacity-fade models, time-series foundation models). Krippendorff's αin [0.74,,0.82] on a 30-scenario stratified rotating-equipment/aero-engine sample; the battery extension is single-rater. Across three agentic frameworks and six LLM backbones, the strongest configuration reaches 80.8\% pass@1, with the residual gap concentrated in orchestration and tool-sequencing errors. Crucially, an architectural ablation shows that replacing MCP execution with text-based Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) over telemetry-equivalent evidence collapses Remaining Useful Life pass-all-3 from 100\% to 20\% (5/5 vs.\ 1/5) on the battery class, exposing the structural limits of static retrieval for prognostic computation. Trajectory decomposition shows orchestration errors dominate failures across backbones, while schema-invalid tool calls concentrate in smaller open-weight models. Frontier LLMs are stronger at calling tools than at planning when to call them. PHMForge is open-sourced with deterministic evaluators, a public leaderboard, and a datasheet.

Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) are increasingly deployed in open-ended, real-world environments where inputs are messy, underspecified, and not always trustworthy. Unlike curated benchmarks, these settings frequently involve instructions that refer to missing objects or contradictory facts, rely on ambiguous references, or request infeasible actions. In such cases, success hinges not on task execution alone, but on a model's ability to detect when something is silently wrong. This paper presents a systematic analysis of how current MLLMs handle such implicit reasoning scenarios: cases where the flaw is not explicitly stated but must be inferred from context. Using a curated diagnostic suite spanning four categories of real-world failure modes, we evaluate six MLLMs, including o3 and GPT-4o, and find that models frequently fail to surface hidden issues, even when they possess the necessary perceptual and reasoning skills. Explicit prompting reveals that the underlying capabilities exist but are often suppressed in favor of user compliance. We further show that simple inference-time interventions, such as cautious persona prompting and, in particular, requiring a clarifying question, can dramatically recover performance. Our findings highlight a persistent gap between reasoning competence and behavioral compliance in current MLLMs and suggest practical strategies for making these models more trustworthy in underconstrained environments.

Modern AI systems increasingly comprise multiple interconnected neural networks to tackle complex inference tasks. Testing such systems for robustness and safety entails significant challenges. Current state-of-the-art robustness testing techniques, whether black-box or white-box, have been proposed and implemented for single-network models and do not scale well to multi-network pipelines. We propose a modular robustness testing framework that applies a given set of perturbations to test data. Our testing framework supports (1) a component-wise system analysis to isolate errors and (2) reasoning about error propagation across the neural network modules. The testing framework is architecture and modality agnostic and can be applied across domains. We apply the framework to a real-world autonomous rail inspection system composed of multiple deep networks and successfully demonstrate how our approach enables fine-grained robustness analysis beyond conventional end-to-end metrics.

The field of medical diagnosis has undergone a significant transformation with the advent of large language models (LLMs), yet the challenges of interpretability within these models remain largely unaddressed. This study introduces Chain-of-Diagnosis (CoD) to enhance the interpretability of LLM-based medical diagnostics. CoD transforms the diagnostic process into a diagnostic chain that mirrors a physician's thought process, providing a transparent reasoning pathway. Additionally, CoD outputs the disease confidence distribution to ensure transparency in decision-making. This interpretability makes model diagnostics controllable and aids in identifying critical symptoms for inquiry through the entropy reduction of confidences. With CoD, we developed DiagnosisGPT, capable of diagnosing 9604 diseases. Experimental results demonstrate that DiagnosisGPT outperforms other LLMs on diagnostic benchmarks. Moreover, DiagnosisGPT provides interpretability while ensuring controllability in diagnostic rigor.

Failure attribution in LLM multi-agent systems-identifying the agent and step responsible for task failures-provides crucial clues for systems debugging but remains underexplored and labor-intensive. In this paper, we propose and formulate a new research area: automated failure attribution for LLM multi-agent systems. To support this initiative, we introduce the Who&When dataset, comprising extensive failure logs from 127 LLM multi-agent systems with fine-grained annotations linking failures to specific agents and decisive error steps. Using the Who&When, we develop and evaluate three automated failure attribution methods, summarizing their corresponding pros and cons. The best method achieves 53.5% accuracy in identifying failure-responsible agents but only 14.2% in pinpointing failure steps, with some methods performing below random. Even SOTA reasoning models, such as OpenAI o1 and DeepSeek R1, fail to achieve practical usability. These results highlight the task's complexity and the need for further research in this area. Code and dataset are available at https://github.com/mingyin1/Agents_Failure_Attribution

System logs are crucial for monitoring and diagnosing modern computing infrastructure, but their scale and complexity require reliable and efficient automated interpretation. Since severity levels are predefined metadata in system log messages, having a model merely classify them offers limited standalone practical value, revealing little about its underlying ability to interpret system logs. We argue that severity classification is more informative when treated as a benchmark for probing runtime log comprehension rather than as an end task. Using real-world journalctl data from Linux production servers, we evaluate nine small language models (SLMs) and small reasoning language models (SRLMs) under zero-shot, few-shot, and retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) prompting. The results reveal strong stratification. Qwen3-4B achieves the highest accuracy at 95.64% with RAG, while Gemma3-1B improves from 20.25% under few-shot prompting to 85.28% with RAG. Notably, the tiny Qwen3-0.6B reaches 88.12% accuracy despite weak performance without retrieval. In contrast, several SRLMs, including Qwen3-1.7B and DeepSeek-R1-Distill-Qwen-1.5B, degrade substantially when paired with RAG. Efficiency measurements further separate models: most Gemma and Llama variants complete inference in under 1.2 seconds per log, whereas Phi-4-Mini-Reasoning exceeds 228 seconds per log while achieving <10% accuracy. These findings suggest that (1) architectural design, (2) training objectives, and (3) the ability to integrate retrieved context under strict output constraints jointly determine performance. By emphasizing small, deployable models, this benchmark aligns with real-time requirements of digital twin (DT) systems and shows that severity classification serves as a lens for evaluating model competence and real-time deployability, with implications for root cause analysis (RCA) and broader DT integration.

Software engineers develop, fine-tune, and deploy deep learning (DL) models. They use and re-use models in a variety of development frameworks and deploy them on a range of runtime environments. In this diverse ecosystem, engineers use DL model converters to move models from frameworks to runtime environments. However, errors in converters can compromise model quality and disrupt deployment. The failure frequency and failure modes of DL model converters are unknown. In this paper, we conduct the first failure analysis on DL model converters. Specifically, we characterize failures in model converters associated with ONNX (Open Neural Network eXchange). We analyze past failures in the ONNX converters in two major DL frameworks, PyTorch and TensorFlow. The symptoms, causes, and locations of failures (for N=200 issues), and trends over time are also reported. We also evaluate present-day failures by converting 8,797 models, both real-world and synthetically generated instances. The consistent result from both parts of the study is that DL model converters commonly fail by producing models that exhibit incorrect behavior: 33% of past failures and 8% of converted models fell into this category. Our results motivate future research on making DL software simpler to maintain, extend, and validate.

Conventional evaluation methods for multimodal LLMs (MLLMs) lack interpretability and are often insufficient to fully disclose significant capability gaps across models. To address this, we introduce AuditDM, an automated framework that actively discovers and rectifies MLLM failure modes by auditing their divergence. AuditDM fine-tunes an MLLM as an auditor via reinforcement learning to generate challenging questions and counterfactual images that maximize disagreement among target models. Once trained, the auditor uncovers diverse, interpretable exemplars that reveal model weaknesses and serve as annotation-free data for rectification. When applied to SoTA models like Gemma-3 and PaliGemma-2, AuditDM discovers more than 20 distinct failure types. Fine-tuning on these discoveries consistently improves all models across 16 benchmarks, and enables a 3B model to surpass its 28B counterpart. Our results suggest that as data scaling hits diminishing returns, targeted model auditing offers an effective path to model diagnosis and improvement.

Test-time training (TTT) adapts language models through gradient-based updates at inference. But is adaptation the right strategy? We study compute-optimal test-time strategies for verifiable execution-grounded (VEG) tasks, domains like GPU kernel optimization where a deterministic evaluator provides dense, continuous reward signals. Using KernelBench as our testbed and a 120B-parameter model (GPT-OSS-120B with LoRA adaptation), we find that search outperforms minimal adaptation (1-5 gradient steps): Best-of-N sampling achieves 90% task success (18/20 tasks) at K=64 across the full KernelBench L1 eval set while TTT's best checkpoint reaches only 30.6% (3-seed mean), with TTT's "equivalent K" falling below 1, worse than single-sample inference. The failure mode is over-sharpening: gradient updates collapse diversity toward mediocre solutions rather than discovering optimal ones. Our main contribution is surprisal-guided selection: selecting the highest-surprisal (lowest-confidence) correct sample yields 80% success vs. 50% for most-confident selection, a 30% improvement. Extending to surprisal-guided-top3 matches oracle performance at 100%. This zero-cost strategy, validated through length-controlled analysis, recovers oracle performance. For dense-reward VEG tasks, compute should be allocated to sample diversity and intelligent selection rather than gradient adaptation. The surprisal-guided selection principle may generalize to other execution-grounded domains where optimal solutions occupy the distribution tail.

Autonomous improvement loops are hard to trust because the improvement process is usually external scaffolding bolted onto the agent: failures go unlogged, diagnoses cannot be replayed, and promote-or-discard decisions land in a side database rather than the agent's own history. We show that an event-sourced agent runtime removes that friction and turns controlled improvement into a first-class workflow. When the agent's state is a deterministic projection of an append-only event log, failures are recorded, a run replays exactly from its log, candidate patches scope to typed pipeline seams, gates are auditable, and every promotion or discard is itself an event. We demonstrate this with Regimes, a loop on the ActiveGraph runtime that diagnoses failed evaluations, proposes a repair at a pipeline point, and promotes it only after static checks, sandbox execution, in-sample evaluation, and held-out validation. The loop is target-agnostic: the same control flow runs against different tasks through a common interface. On LongMemEval-S the dominant failure is not retrieval but reconciliation: the evidence is already in the assembled context, yet the reader answers incorrectly. Across five seeded held-out splits, Regimes discovers reader-prompt repairs that improve final held-out accuracy by +0.05 to +0.10 in four splits and +0.01 in one over-promotion split; two splits are individually significant (seed 5 unadjusted for its sequential promotion structure), and the pooled count is descriptive only, since the splits share one 500-question pool. The durable contributions are ActiveGraph as an auditable substrate that makes controlled improvement loops tractable, the held-out-gated loop it supports, the failure-regime taxonomy routing each failure to a pipeline location (whose marginal value over an unrouted baseline is the primary open question), and the prompt-as-discovery-probe hypothesis.

The task of root cause analysis (RCA) is to identify the root causes of system faults/failures by analyzing system monitoring data. Efficient RCA can greatly accelerate system failure recovery and mitigate system damages or financial losses. However, previous research has mostly focused on developing offline RCA algorithms, which often require manually initiating the RCA process, a significant amount of time and data to train a robust model, and then being retrained from scratch for a new system fault. In this paper, we propose CORAL, a novel online RCA framework that can automatically trigger the RCA process and incrementally update the RCA model. CORAL consists of Trigger Point Detection, Incremental Disentangled Causal Graph Learning, and Network Propagation-based Root Cause Localization. The Trigger Point Detection component aims to detect system state transitions automatically and in near-real-time. To achieve this, we develop an online trigger point detection approach based on multivariate singular spectrum analysis and cumulative sum statistics. To efficiently update the RCA model, we propose an incremental disentangled causal graph learning approach to decouple the state-invariant and state-dependent information. After that, CORAL applies a random walk with restarts to the updated causal graph to accurately identify root causes. The online RCA process terminates when the causal graph and the generated root cause list converge. Extensive experiments on three real-world datasets with case studies demonstrate the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed framework.

This paper introduces BioAgent Bench, a benchmark dataset and an evaluation suite designed for measuring the performance and robustness of AI agents in common bioinformatics tasks. The benchmark contains curated end-to-end tasks (e.g., RNA-seq, variant calling, metagenomics) with prompts that specify concrete output artifacts to support automated assessment, including stress testing under controlled perturbations. We evaluate frontier closed-source and open-weight models across multiple agent harnesses, and use an LLM-based grader to score pipeline progress and outcome validity. We find that frontier agents can complete multi-step bioinformatics pipelines without elaborate custom scaffolding, often producing the requested final artifacts reliably. However, robustness tests reveal failure modes under controlled perturbations (corrupted inputs, decoy files, and prompt bloat), indicating that correct high-level pipeline construction does not guarantee reliable step-level reasoning. Finally, because bioinformatics workflows may involve sensitive patient data, proprietary references, or unpublished IP, closed-source models can be unsuitable under strict privacy constraints; in such settings, open-weight models may be preferable despite lower completion rates. We release the dataset and evaluation suite publicly.

Effective root cause analysis (RCA) is vital for swiftly restoring services, minimizing losses, and ensuring the smooth operation and management of complex systems. Previous data-driven RCA methods, particularly those employing causal discovery techniques, have primarily focused on constructing dependency or causal graphs for backtracking the root causes. However, these methods often fall short as they rely solely on data from a single modality, thereby resulting in suboptimal solutions. In this work, we propose Mulan, a unified multi-modal causal structure learning method for root cause localization. We leverage a log-tailored language model to facilitate log representation learning, converting log sequences into time-series data. To explore intricate relationships across different modalities, we propose a contrastive learning-based approach to extract modality-invariant and modality-specific representations within a shared latent space. Additionally, we introduce a novel key performance indicator-aware attention mechanism for assessing modality reliability and co-learning a final causal graph. Finally, we employ random walk with restart to simulate system fault propagation and identify potential root causes. Extensive experiments on three real-world datasets validate the effectiveness of our proposed framework.

Although AI systems have been applied in various fields and achieved impressive performance, their safety and reliability are still a big concern. This is especially important for safety-critical tasks. One shared characteristic of these critical tasks is their risk sensitivity, where small mistakes can cause big consequences and even endanger life. There are several factors that could be guidelines for the successful deployment of AI systems in sensitive tasks: (i) failure detection and out-of-distribution (OOD) detection; (ii) overfitting identification; (iii) uncertainty quantification for predictions; (iv) robustness to data perturbations. These factors are also challenges of current AI systems, which are major blocks for building safe and reliable AI. Specifically, the current AI algorithms are unable to identify common causes for failure detection. Furthermore, additional techniques are required to quantify the quality of predictions. All these contribute to inaccurate uncertainty quantification, which lowers trust in predictions. Hence obtaining accurate model uncertainty quantification and its further improvement are challenging. To address these issues, many techniques have been proposed, such as regularization methods and learning strategies. As vision and language are the most typical data type and have many open source benchmark datasets, this thesis will focus on vision-language data processing for tasks like classification, image captioning, and vision question answering. In this thesis, we aim to build a safeguard by further developing current techniques to ensure the accurate model uncertainty for safety-critical tasks.

Despite generating increasingly photorealistic images, text-to-image (T2I) models still exhibit localized, subtle, and structurally complex failures. Diagnosing these failures requires instance-level feedback that answers where a defect occurs, what type it is, why it is defective, and its importance to overall image quality. While recent dense-feedback methods move beyond scalar supervision, their heatmap-centric representations still formulate diagnosis as pixel-field regression, making it difficult to localize variable-cardinality defects and bind semantic reasons to individual failures. To address this representation bottleneck, we propose Structured Defect Grounding (SDG), which casts T2I diagnosis as structured set prediction by modeling each defect as a (location, type, reason, importance) tuple. To make this formulation trainable and measurable, we introduce SDG-30K, a 30K-image dataset with box-grounded annotations across four modern T2I generators, together with a dedicated evaluation protocol, SDG-Eval. Building on this structured representation, we further present a diagnosis-to-alignment framework in which a Vision-Language Model (VLM) serves as the SDG detector, and BoxFlow-GRPO converts predicted defect sets into box-derived, importance-weighted spatial rewards for diffusion model alignment. Extensive experiments show that our SDG detector outperforms leading proprietary VLMs on structured defect grounding, while SDG-guided rewards consistently improve T2I alignment and support localized image refinement. These results establish SDG as a unified, instance-level interface for diagnosing, evaluating, and enhancing modern generative models.

We report a case study of four end-to-end attempts to autonomously generate ML research papers using a pipeline of six LLM agents mapped to stages of the scientific workflow. Of these four, three attempts failed during implementation or evaluation. One completed the pipeline and was accepted to Agents4Science 2025, an experimental inaugural venue that required AI systems as first authors, passing both human and multi-AI review. From these attempts, we document six recurring failure modes: bias toward training data defaults, implementation drift under execution pressure, memory and context degradation across long-horizon tasks, overexcitement that declares success despite obvious failures, insufficient domain intelligence, and weak scientific taste in experimental design. We conclude by discussing four design principles for more robust AI-scientist systems, implications for autonomous scientific discovery, and we release all prompts, artifacts, and outputs at https://github.com/Lossfunk/ai-scientist-artefacts-v1

Despite achieving high accuracy on medical benchmarks, LLMs exhibit the Einstellung Effect in clinical diagnosis--relying on statistical shortcuts rather than patient-specific evidence, causing misdiagnosis in atypical cases. Existing benchmarks fail to detect this critical failure mode. We introduce MedEinst, a counterfactual benchmark with 5,383 paired clinical cases across 49 diseases. Each pair contains a control case and a "trap" case with altered discriminative evidence that flips the diagnosis. We measure susceptibility via Bias Trap Rate--probability of misdiagnosing traps despite correctly diagnosing controls. Extensive Evaluation of 17 LLMs shows frontier models achieve high baseline accuracy but severe bias trap rates. Thus, we propose ECR-Agent, aligning LLM reasoning with Evidence-Based Medicine standard via two components: (1) Dynamic Causal Inference (DCI) performs structured reasoning through dual-pathway perception, dynamic causal graph reasoning across three levels (association, intervention, counterfactual), and evidence audit for final diagnosis; (2) Critic-Driven Graph and Memory Evolution (CGME) iteratively refines the system by storing validated reasoning paths in an exemplar base and consolidating disease-specific knowledge into evolving illness graphs. Source code is to be released.

In agentic scientific machine learning (SciML), large language model (LLM) agents can discover surrogate models and select one by an automated score, typically an error metric. A low error, however, does not establish that the predicted fields satisfy the physics that matter for mechanics, such as boundary conditions, superposition, stiffness scaling, or causality. We introduce Physics-Audited Agentic SciML (PA-SciML), a verification-first workflow for agentic SciML discovery. The workflow fixes a scoring evaluator before search, derives reviewable machine-checkable physics requirements, checks each trained candidate on its outputs, and separately searches prescribed input ranges or measured load-history spans for high-violation cases without reference solution fields. A surrogate is reported as verified only under the stated checks. When enabled, the workflow also adds advisory numerical probes before training and tests one modeling change at a time to record which isolated edits are associated with score gains before reuse. In the reported computational-solid-mechanics numerical examples, the static elasticity run selects a surrogate with lower validation error than the error-only baseline while both selected models pass the common linear-elastic checks. In the transient elastodynamics run, an error-only baseline with similar mean error fails a stricter causality check by responding to future parts of the loading history, while the selected surrogate passes the stated checks. The main distinction is per-candidate physics evidence on predicted fields, not a richer aggregate score.

As Large Multimodal Models (LMMs) scale up and reinforcement learning (RL) methods mature, LMMs have made notable progress in complex reasoning and decision making. Yet training still relies on static data and fixed recipes, making it difficult to diagnose capability blind spots or provide dynamic, targeted reinforcement. Motivated by findings that test driven error exposure and feedback based correction outperform repetitive practice, we propose Diagnostic-driven Progressive Evolution (DPE), a spiral loop where diagnosis steers data generation and reinforcement, and each iteration re-diagnoses the updated model to drive the next round of targeted improvement. DPE has two key components. First, multiple agents annotate and quality control massive unlabeled multimodal data, using tools such as web search and image editing to produce diverse, realistic samples. Second, DPE attributes failures to specific weaknesses, dynamically adjusts the data mixture, and guides agents to generate weakness focused data for targeted reinforcement. Experiments on Qwen3-VL-8B-Instruct and Qwen2.5-VL-7B-Instruct show stable, continual gains across eleven benchmarks, indicating DPE as a scalable paradigm for continual LMM training under open task distributions. Our code, models, and data are publicly available at https://github.com/hongruijia/DPE.

LLM-based agents increasingly solve complex tasks through long trajectories involving reasoning steps, tool calls, and inter-agent communication. However, when these agents fail, it is often unclear which agent caused the failure and which step introduced the decisive error. This attribution problem is challenging because mistakes can propagate across the trajectory: later actions may appear incorrect, but only because they depend on an earlier corrupted state. Therefore, failure attribution cannot be treated as independent step-level classification. We propose FALAT, a diagnostic framework for failure attribution in LLM agent trajectories. FALAT frames attribution as a dependency-guided search problem. It first constructs an expectation of how the task should be solved and uses this expectation to identify suspicious regions in the trajectory. It then traces dependencies among decisions, tool outputs, and agent messages to distinguish error-introducing steps from steps that merely inherit or propagate prior mistakes. Finally, FALAT evaluates whether correcting a candidate step would be sufficient to recover the expected outcome, allowing it to identify both the responsible agent and the decisive failure step. We evaluate FALAT on the Who&When benchmark, which includes both algorithm-generated and hand-crafted multi-agent failure trajectories. The results show that FALAT consistently improves responsible-agent and decisive-step attribution. Its best configurations achieve 46.0% step-level accuracy on algorithm-generated trajectories and 29.1% on the more challenging hand-crafted trajectories, outperforming specialized attribution baselines and direct prompting with standalone LLMs. These findings suggest that dependency-aware reasoning is essential for reliable failure diagnosis in LLM agent systems.

In the Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT), condition monitoring sensor signals from complex systems often exhibit nonlinear and stochastic spatial-temporal dynamics under varying conditions. These complex dynamics make fault detection particularly challenging. While previous methods effectively model these dynamics, they often neglect the evolution of relationships between sensor signals. Undetected shifts in these relationships can lead to significant system failures. Furthermore, these methods frequently misidentify novel operating conditions as faults. Addressing these limitations, we propose DyEdgeGAT (Dynamic Edge via Graph Attention), a novel approach for early-stage fault detection in IIoT systems. DyEdgeGAT's primary innovation lies in a novel graph inference scheme for multivariate time series that tracks the evolution of relationships between time series, enabled by dynamic edge construction. Another key innovation of DyEdgeGAT is its ability to incorporate operating condition contexts into node dynamics modeling, enhancing its accuracy and robustness. We rigorously evaluated DyEdgeGAT using both a synthetic dataset, simulating varying levels of fault severity, and a real-world industrial-scale multiphase flow facility benchmark with diverse fault types under varying operating conditions and detection complexities. The results show that DyEdgeGAT significantly outperforms other baseline methods in fault detection, particularly in the early stages with low severity, and exhibits robust performance under novel operating conditions.

Evaluating conditional coverage remains one of the most persistent challenges in assessing the reliability of predictive systems. Although conformal methods can give guarantees on marginal coverage, no method can guarantee to produce sets with correct conditional coverage, leaving practitioners without a clear way to interpret local deviations. To overcome sample-inefficiency and overfitting issues of existing metrics, we cast conditional coverage estimation as a classification problem. Conditional coverage is violated if and only if some classifier can achieve lower risk than the target coverage. Through the choice of a (proper) loss function, the resulting risk difference gives a conservative estimate of natural miscoverage measures such as L1 and L2 distance, and can even separate the effects of over- and under-coverage, and non-constant target coverages. We call the resulting family of metrics excess risk of the target coverage (ERT). We show experimentally that the use of modern classifiers provides much higher statistical power than simple classifiers underlying established metrics like CovGap. Additionally, we use our metric to benchmark different conformal prediction methods. Finally, we release an open-source package for ERT as well as previous conditional coverage metrics. Together, these contributions provide a new lens for understanding, diagnosing, and improving the conditional reliability of predictive systems.

Clinical diagnosis is a highly specialized discipline requiring both domain expertise and strict adherence to rigorous guidelines. While current AI-driven medical research predominantly focuses on knowledge graphs or natural text pretraining paradigms to incorporate medical knowledge, these approaches primarily rely on implicitly encoded knowledge within model parameters, neglecting task-specific knowledge required by diverse downstream tasks. To address this limitation, we propose Retrieval-Augmented Diagnosis (RAD), a novel framework that explicitly injects external knowledge into multimodal models directly on downstream tasks. Specifically, RAD operates through three key mechanisms: retrieval and refinement of disease-centered knowledge from multiple medical sources, a guideline-enhanced contrastive loss that constrains the latent distance between multi-modal features and guideline knowledge, and the dual transformer decoder that employs guidelines as queries to steer cross-modal fusion, aligning the models with clinical diagnostic workflows from guideline acquisition to feature extraction and decision-making. Moreover, recognizing the lack of quantitative evaluation of interpretability for multimodal diagnostic models, we introduce a set of criteria to assess the interpretability from both image and text perspectives. Extensive evaluations across four datasets with different anatomies demonstrate RAD's generalizability, achieving state-of-the-art performance. Furthermore, RAD enables the model to concentrate more precisely on abnormal regions and critical indicators, ensuring evidence-based, trustworthy diagnosis. Our code is available at https://github.com/tdlhl/RAD.

Reliable application of machine learning is of primary importance to the practical deployment of deep learning methods. A fundamental challenge is that models are often unreliable due to overconfidence. In this paper, we estimate a model's reliability by measuring the agreement between its latent space, and the latent space of a foundation model. However, it is challenging to measure the agreement between two different latent spaces due to their incoherence, \eg, arbitrary rotations and different dimensionality. To overcome this incoherence issue, we design a neighborhood agreement measure between latent spaces and find that this agreement is surprisingly well-correlated with the reliability of a model's predictions. Further, we show that fusing neighborhood agreement into a model's predictive confidence in a post-hoc way significantly improves its reliability. Theoretical analysis and extensive experiments on failure detection across various datasets verify the effectiveness of our method on both in-distribution and out-of-distribution settings.

Autonomous vehicles drive millions of miles on the road each year. Under such circumstances, deployed machine learning models are prone to failure both in seemingly normal situations and in the presence of outliers. However, in the training phase, they are only evaluated on small validation and test sets, which are unable to reveal model failures due to their limited scenario coverage. While it is difficult and expensive to acquire large and representative labeled datasets for evaluation, large-scale unlabeled datasets are typically available. In this work, we introduce label-free model failure detection for lidar-based point cloud segmentation, taking advantage of the abundance of unlabeled data available. We leverage different data characteristics by training a supervised and self-supervised stream for the same task to detect failure modes. We perform a large-scale qualitative analysis and present LidarCODA, the first publicly available dataset with labeled anomalies in real-world lidar data, for an extensive quantitative analysis.

The increasing use of Machine Learning (ML) components embedded in autonomous systems -- so-called Learning-Enabled Systems (LESs) -- has resulted in the pressing need to assure their functional safety. As for traditional functional safety, the emerging consensus within both, industry and academia, is to use assurance cases for this purpose. Typically assurance cases support claims of reliability in support of safety, and can be viewed as a structured way of organising arguments and evidence generated from safety analysis and reliability modelling activities. While such assurance activities are traditionally guided by consensus-based standards developed from vast engineering experience, LESs pose new challenges in safety-critical application due to the characteristics and design of ML models. In this article, we first present an overall assurance framework for LESs with an emphasis on quantitative aspects, e.g., breaking down system-level safety targets to component-level requirements and supporting claims stated in reliability metrics. We then introduce a novel model-agnostic Reliability Assessment Model (RAM) for ML classifiers that utilises the operational profile and robustness verification evidence. We discuss the model assumptions and the inherent challenges of assessing ML reliability uncovered by our RAM and propose solutions to practical use. Probabilistic safety argument templates at the lower ML component-level are also developed based on the RAM. Finally, to evaluate and demonstrate our methods, we not only conduct experiments on synthetic/benchmark datasets but also scope our methods with case studies on simulated Autonomous Underwater Vehicles and physical Unmanned Ground Vehicles.

Scaling laws predict loss from compute but not how capabilities interact. We measure the coupling between reasoning and truthfulness across 63 base models from 16 families and find a regime change invisible to loss curves: below a family-dependent critical scale N_c, capabilities anticorrelate; above it, they cooperate. N_c approx 3.5B parameters [2.9B, 13.4B] (bootstrap 95% CI), but model size is not the only variable that determines phase. Architecture, data curation, and training recipe each shift N_c independently: curated training eliminated the coupling dip between Qwen generations (0.025 to 0.830 at matched scale), Gemma-4 at 4B achieves coupling 0.871, characteristic of 13B+ standard-trained models, through distillation and architectural innovation, and Phi at 1B matches web-trained coupling at 10B through data curation alone. Width normalization eliminates the anticorrelation across all tested families, supporting an output-projection bottleneck. Internally, 38 of 40 models show zero competing attention heads. A sparse-regression ODE cross-predicts held-out Llama-2 at 5.6% error. The diagnostic requires no model internals -- only public benchmark scores across a model family. The cooperative regime extends to the frontier (r = +0.72, 34 models, 10 labs). Code, data, and an open-source activation-steering tool for any open-weight model are released alongside an interactive dashboard that diagnoses any model's coupling phase, suggests concrete interventions (data curation, width, benchmark rotation), and provides ODE scaling predictions, frontier diagnostics, and eigenstructure analysis: https://zehenlabs.com/cape/.

In Agentic AI, Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly used in the orchestration layer to coordinate multiple agents and to interact with external services, retrieval components, and shared memory. In this setting, failures are not limited to incorrect final outputs. They also arise from long-horizon interaction, stochastic decisions, and external side effects (such as API calls, database writes, and message sends). Common failures include non-termination, role drift, propagation of unsupported claims, and attacks via untrusted context or external channels. This paper presents an assurance framework for such Agentic AI systems. Executions are instrumented as Message-Action Traces (MAT) with explicit step and trace contracts. Contracts provide machine-checkable verdicts, localize the first violating step, and support deterministic replay. The framework includes stress testing, formulated as a budgeted counterexample search over bounded perturbations. It also supports structured fault injection at service, retrieval, and memory boundaries to assess containment under realistic operational faults and degraded conditions. Finally, governance is treated as a runtime component, enforcing per-agent capability limits and action mediation (allow, rewrite, block) at the language-to-action boundary. To support comparative evaluations across stochastic seeds, models, and orchestration configurations, the paper defines trace-based metrics for task success, termination reliability, contract compliance, factuality indicators, containment rate, and governance outcome distributions. More broadly, the framework is intended as a common abstraction to support testing and evaluation of multi-agent LLM systems, and to facilitate reproducible comparison across orchestration designs and configurations.

Alignment tuning is meant to make harmful-request refusal robust, yet this safety behavior can be erased by a small set of benign fine-tuning examples. This is a deployment risk for open-weight models because a checkpoint can pass refusal tests at release time and later lose refusal under low-cost downstream fine-tuning. Prior work has established these refusal failures, but existing studies do not show how to detect this fragility in the aligned model itself before an attack or fine-tuning intervention is run. We introduce Skin-Deep, a geometric diagnostic that detects alignment fragility directly from the aligned model's hidden-state activations before such an intervention is run and compresses the layer-wise safety geometry into a single scalar, the Geometric Fragility Score (GFS). Applied to twenty-one instruction-tuned models spanning six alignment recipes and 3B--32B parameters, Skin-Deep reveals a recurring low-rank safety subspace across model families. Direction ablations show that removing directions in this subspace weakens harmful-request refusal, providing causal evidence that the recovered geometry underlies refusal behavior. Crucially, GFS identifies, before any fine-tuning, the initially safe model that retains the most refusal after small-scale LoRA fine-tuning. These results establish GFS as a practical pre-deployment diagnostic for flagging fragile refusal behavior without running an attack.