Daily Papers

Causal video generators must predict from the past, but they need not learn only from it. In streaming autoregressive video diffusion, each emitted segment becomes a commitment that future segments must preserve. Standard training, however, only asks each causal state to explain the present. This creates what we call a representation-level planning gap: states that fit the current segment may discard identity, layout, and motion information needed for a consistent future. We introduce Video-Mirai, a training-only method that closes this gap without changing causal inference: the generator rolls out causally, a frozen foresight encoder reads the completed rollout non-causally, and a lightweight predictor distills the resulting stopped-gradient targets into causal states. Future frames supervise representations, never generator inputs. At inference, the encoder and predictor are discarded, leaving the original architecture, per-step FLOPs, and KV-cache behavior unchanged. Video-Mirai improves a strong Causal-Forcing baseline on 5-second VBench from 83.8 to 84.6 in terms of Total Score. On 30-second rollouts beyond the training horizon, subject consistency improves from 84.9 to 88.5 and background consistency from 90.2 to 91.9. Ablations identify future-conditioned targets as the key ingredient, and probes show that future frames become more decodable from current features. Causality should constrain inference, not representation supervision. Our study highlights that visual autoregressive models need foresight. Project page: https://y0uroy.github.io/Video-Mirai.

Effective planning requires strong world models, but high-level world models that can understand and reason about actions with semantic and temporal abstraction remain largely underdeveloped. We introduce the Vision Language World Model (VLWM), a foundation model trained for language-based world modeling on natural videos. Given visual observations, the VLWM first infers the overall goal achievements then predicts a trajectory composed of interleaved actions and world state changes. Those targets are extracted by iterative LLM Self-Refine conditioned on compressed future observations represented by Tree of Captions. The VLWM learns both an action policy and a dynamics model, which respectively facilitates reactive system-1 plan decoding and reflective system-2 planning via cost minimization. The cost evaluates the semantic distance between the hypothetical future states given by VLWM roll-outs and the expected goal state, and is measured by a critic model that we trained in a self-supervised manner. The VLWM achieves state-of-the-art Visual Planning for Assistance (VPA) performance on both benchmark evaluations and our proposed PlannerArena human evaluations, where system-2 improves the Elo score by +27% upon system-1. The VLWM models also outperforms strong VLM baselines on RoboVQA and WorldPrediction benchmark.

End-to-end autonomous driving (E2E-AD) has achieved remarkable progress. However, one practical and useful function has been long overlooked: users may wish to customize the desired speed of the policy or specify whether to allow the autonomous vehicle to overtake. To bridge this gap, we present Bench2Drive-Speed, a benchmark with metrics, dataset, and baselines for desired-speed conditioned autonomous driving. We introduce explicit inputs of users' desired target-speed and overtake/follow instructions to driving policy models. We design quantitative metrics, including Speed-Adherence Score and Overtake Score, to measure how faithfully policies follow user specifications, while remaining compatible with standard autonomous driving metrics. To enable training of speed-conditioned policies, one approach is to collect expert demonstrations that strictly follow speed requirements, an expensive and unscalable process in the real world. An alternative is to adapt existing regular driving data by treating the speed observed in future frames as the target speed for training. To investigate this, we construct CustomizedSpeedDataset, composed of 2,100 clips annotated with experts demonstrations, enabling systematic investigation of supervision strategies. Our experiments show that, under proper re-annotation, models trained on regular driving data perform comparably to on expert demonstrations, suggesting that speed supervision can be introduced without additional complex real-world data collection. Furthermore, we find that while target-speed following can be achieved without degrading regular driving performance, executing overtaking commands remains challenging due to the inherent difficulty of interactive behaviors. All code, datasets and baselines are available at https://github.com/Thinklab-SJTU/Bench2Drive-Speed

Auto-bidding systems aim to maximize advertiser value over long horizons under budget constraints and ratio targets such as cost-per-acquisition, yet future traffic and auction dynamics are non-stationary and uncertain. Existing approaches face distinct limitations: control-based pacing reacts to deviations but cannot anticipate future conditions, while RL and generative methods fold constraints into reward signals, obscuring violations and degrading under distribution shift. We shift the learning target from actions to responses with the Generative Response Model (GRM), a history-conditioned sequence model that jointly predicts future traffic volume and horizon-aggregate cost/value curves as functions of a single bid multiplier. We show that under mild monotonicity conditions, the optimality gap relative to full per-tick control is bounded by the dispersion of per-tick marginal value-per-cost. Given predicted responses, a lightweight analytic controller enforces each active constraint via a 1D root-finding step. We prove this controller is exact for the single-multiplier problem and bound constraint violations under receding-horizon replanning in terms of prediction error. Experiments on AuctionNet show that GRM improves constraint stability and overall score compared to existing baselines.

Future- or return-conditioned supervised learning is an emerging paradigm for offline reinforcement learning (RL), where the future outcome (i.e., return) associated with an observed action sequence is used as input to a policy trained to imitate those same actions. While return-conditioning is at the heart of popular algorithms such as decision transformer (DT), these methods tend to perform poorly in highly stochastic environments, where an occasional high return can arise from randomness in the environment rather than the actions themselves. Such situations can lead to a learned policy that is inconsistent with its conditioning inputs; i.e., using the policy to act in the environment, when conditioning on a specific desired return, leads to a distribution of real returns that is wildly different than desired. In this work, we propose the dichotomy of control (DoC), a future-conditioned supervised learning framework that separates mechanisms within a policy's control (actions) from those beyond a policy's control (environment stochasticity). We achieve this separation by conditioning the policy on a latent variable representation of the future, and designing a mutual information constraint that removes any information from the latent variable associated with randomness in the environment. Theoretically, we show that DoC yields policies that are consistent with their conditioning inputs, ensuring that conditioning a learned policy on a desired high-return future outcome will correctly induce high-return behavior. Empirically, we show that DoC is able to achieve significantly better performance than DT on environments that have highly stochastic rewards and transition

World action models jointly predict future video and action during training, raising an open question about what role the future-prediction branch actually plays. A recent finding shows that this branch can be removed at inference with little to no loss on common manipulation benchmarks, suggesting that future information may act merely as a regularizer on the shared visual backbone. We propose instead that joint training induces an action-conditioned correction that privileged future observations impose on action denoising, and that current-only policies capture this correction only partially. Making the account precise, we formulate privileged foresight as a residual in the action-denoising direction -- the difference between what a model predicts given the true future and what it predicts given only the current frame -- and introduce Privileged Foresight Distillation (PFD), which transfers this residual from a training-time teacher into a small adapter on a current-only student. The teacher and student share the same backbone and differ only in the attention mask over video tokens; future video is never generated at inference. Controlled experiments verify that this gain reflects a genuine future-conditioned correction rather than a side effect of capacity or regularization. Empirically, PFD achieves consistent improvements on LIBERO and RoboTwin manipulation benchmarks while preserving the current-only inference interface at negligible added latency. This view reframes the role of future information in world action models: not as a target to predict, nor as a regularizer to absorb, but as a compressible correction to be distilled.

Recent research in offline reinforcement learning (RL) has demonstrated that return-conditioned supervised learning is a powerful paradigm for decision-making problems. While promising, return conditioning is limited to training data labeled with rewards and therefore faces challenges in learning from unsupervised data. In this work, we aim to utilize generalized future conditioning to enable efficient unsupervised pretraining from reward-free and sub-optimal offline data. We propose Pretrained Decision Transformer (PDT), a conceptually simple approach for unsupervised RL pretraining. PDT leverages future trajectory information as a privileged context to predict actions during training. The ability to make decisions based on both present and future factors enhances PDT's capability for generalization. Besides, this feature can be easily incorporated into a return-conditioned framework for online finetuning, by assigning return values to possible futures and sampling future embeddings based on their respective values. Empirically, PDT outperforms or performs on par with its supervised pretraining counterpart, especially when dealing with sub-optimal data. Further analysis reveals that PDT can extract diverse behaviors from offline data and controllably sample high-return behaviors by online finetuning. Code is available at here.

Humans possess the remarkable ability to foresee the future to a certain extent based on present observations, a skill we term as foresight minds. However, this capability remains largely under explored within existing Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs), hindering their capacity to learn the fundamental principles of how things operate and the intentions behind the observed subjects. To address this issue, we introduce the integration of future modeling into the existing learning frameworks of MLLMs. By utilizing the subject trajectory, a highly structured representation of a consecutive frame sequence, as a learning objective, we aim to bridge the gap between the past and the future. We propose two innovative methods to empower MLLMs with foresight minds, Foresight Pre-Training (FPT) and Foresight Instruction-Tuning (FIT), which are inspired by the modern learning paradigm of LLMs. Specifically, FPT jointly training various tasks centered on trajectories, enabling MLLMs to learn how to attend and predict entire trajectories from a given initial observation. Then, FIT requires MLLMs to first predict trajectories of related objects and then reason about potential future events based on them. Aided by FPT and FIT, we build a novel and unified MLLM named Merlin that supports multi-images input and analysis about potential actions of multiple objects for the future reasoning. Experimental results show Merlin powerful foresight minds with impressive performance on both future reasoning and visual comprehension tasks.

Can we better anticipate an actor's future actions (e.g. mix eggs) by knowing what commonly happens after his/her current action (e.g. crack eggs)? What if we also know the longer-term goal of the actor (e.g. making egg fried rice)? The long-term action anticipation (LTA) task aims to predict an actor's future behavior from video observations in the form of verb and noun sequences, and it is crucial for human-machine interaction. We propose to formulate the LTA task from two perspectives: a bottom-up approach that predicts the next actions autoregressively by modeling temporal dynamics; and a top-down approach that infers the goal of the actor and plans the needed procedure to accomplish the goal. We hypothesize that large language models (LLMs), which have been pretrained on procedure text data (e.g. recipes, how-tos), have the potential to help LTA from both perspectives. It can help provide the prior knowledge on the possible next actions, and infer the goal given the observed part of a procedure, respectively. To leverage the LLMs, we propose a two-stage framework, AntGPT. It first recognizes the actions already performed in the observed videos and then asks an LLM to predict the future actions via conditioned generation, or to infer the goal and plan the whole procedure by chain-of-thought prompting. Empirical results on the Ego4D LTA v1 and v2 benchmarks, EPIC-Kitchens-55, as well as EGTEA GAZE+ demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed approach. AntGPT achieves state-of-the-art performance on all above benchmarks, and can successfully infer the goal and thus perform goal-conditioned "counterfactual" prediction via qualitative analysis. Code and model will be released at https://brown-palm.github.io/AntGPT

Recent work has demonstrated the effectiveness of formulating decision making as a supervised learning problem on offline-collected trajectories. However, the benefits of performing sequence modeling on trajectory data is not yet clear. In this work we investigate if sequence modeling has the capability to condense trajectories into useful representations that can contribute to policy learning. To achieve this, we adopt a two-stage framework that first summarizes trajectories with sequence modeling techniques, and then employs these representations to learn a policy along with a desired goal. This design allows many existing supervised offline RL methods to be considered as specific instances of our framework. Within this framework, we introduce Goal-Conditioned Predicitve Coding (GCPC), an approach that brings powerful trajectory representations and leads to performant policies. We conduct extensive empirical evaluations on AntMaze, FrankaKitchen and Locomotion environments, and observe that sequence modeling has a significant impact on some decision making tasks. In addition, we demonstrate that GCPC learns a goal-conditioned latent representation about the future, which serves as an "implicit planner", and enables competitive performance on all three benchmarks.

Predicting and reasoning about the future lie at the heart of many time-series questions. For example, goal-conditioned reinforcement learning can be viewed as learning representations to predict which states are likely to be visited in the future. While prior methods have used contrastive predictive coding to model time series data, learning representations that encode long-term dependencies usually requires large amounts of data. In this paper, we introduce a temporal difference version of contrastive predictive coding that stitches together pieces of different time series data to decrease the amount of data required to learn predictions of future events. We apply this representation learning method to derive an off-policy algorithm for goal-conditioned RL. Experiments demonstrate that, compared with prior RL methods, ours achieves 2 times median improvement in success rates and can better cope with stochastic environments. In tabular settings, we show that our method is about 20 times more sample efficient than the successor representation and 1500 times more sample efficient than the standard (Monte Carlo) version of contrastive predictive coding.

Forecasting future events based on evidence of current conditions is an innate skill of human beings, and key for predicting the outcome of any decision making. In artificial vision for example, we would like to predict the next human action before it happens, without observing the future video frames associated to it. Computer vision models for action anticipation are expected to collect the subtle evidence in the preamble of the target actions. In prior studies recurrence modeling often leads to better performance, the strong temporal inference is assumed to be a key element for reasonable prediction. To this end, we propose a unified recurrence modeling for video action anticipation via message passing framework. The information flow in space-time can be described by the interaction between vertices and edges, and the changes of vertices for each incoming frame reflects the underlying dynamics. Our model leverages self-attention as the building blocks for each of the message passing functions. In addition, we introduce different edge learning strategies that can be end-to-end optimized to gain better flexibility for the connectivity between vertices. Our experimental results demonstrate that our proposed method outperforms previous works on the large-scale EPIC-Kitchen dataset.

Humans and animals have a rich and flexible understanding of the physical world, which enables them to infer the underlying dynamical trajectories of objects and events, plausible future states, and use that to plan and anticipate the consequences of actions. However, the neural mechanisms underlying these computations are unclear. We combine a goal-driven modeling approach with dense neurophysiological data and high-throughput human behavioral readouts to directly impinge on this question. Specifically, we construct and evaluate several classes of sensory-cognitive networks to predict the future state of rich, ethologically-relevant environments, ranging from self-supervised end-to-end models with pixel-wise or object-centric objectives, to models that future predict in the latent space of purely static image-based or dynamic video-based pretrained foundation models. We find strong differentiation across these model classes in their ability to predict neural and behavioral data both within and across diverse environments. In particular, we find that neural responses are currently best predicted by models trained to predict the future state of their environment in the latent space of pretrained foundation models optimized for dynamic scenes in a self-supervised manner. Notably, models that future predict in the latent space of video foundation models that are optimized to support a diverse range of sensorimotor tasks, reasonably match both human behavioral error patterns and neural dynamics across all environmental scenarios that we were able to test. Overall, these findings suggest that the neural mechanisms and behaviors of primate mental simulation are thus far most consistent with being optimized to future predict on dynamic, reusable visual representations that are useful for embodied AI more generally.

Developing an agent capable of adapting to unseen environments remains a difficult challenge in imitation learning. This work presents Adaptive Return-conditioned Policy (ARP), an efficient framework designed to enhance the agent's generalization ability using natural language task descriptions and pre-trained multimodal encoders. Our key idea is to calculate a similarity between visual observations and natural language instructions in the pre-trained multimodal embedding space (such as CLIP) and use it as a reward signal. We then train a return-conditioned policy using expert demonstrations labeled with multimodal rewards. Because the multimodal rewards provide adaptive signals at each timestep, our ARP effectively mitigates the goal misgeneralization. This results in superior generalization performances even when faced with unseen text instructions, compared to existing text-conditioned policies. To improve the quality of rewards, we also introduce a fine-tuning method for pre-trained multimodal encoders, further enhancing the performance. Video demonstrations and source code are available on the project website: https://sites.google.com/view/2023arp.

Unsupervised goal-conditioned reinforcement learning (GCRL) is a promising paradigm for developing diverse robotic skills without external supervision. However, existing unsupervised GCRL methods often struggle to cover a wide range of states in complex environments due to their limited exploration and sparse or noisy rewards for GCRL. To overcome these challenges, we propose a novel unsupervised GCRL method that leverages TemporaL Distance-aware Representations (TLDR). TLDR selects faraway goals to initiate exploration and computes intrinsic exploration rewards and goal-reaching rewards, based on temporal distance. Specifically, our exploration policy seeks states with large temporal distances (i.e. covering a large state space), while the goal-conditioned policy learns to minimize the temporal distance to the goal (i.e. reaching the goal). Our experimental results in six simulated robotic locomotion environments demonstrate that our method significantly outperforms previous unsupervised GCRL methods in achieving a wide variety of states.

Offline goal-conditioned reinforcement learning (GCRL) is a promising approach for pretraining generalist policies on large datasets of reward-free trajectories, akin to the self-supervised objectives used to train foundation models for computer vision and natural language processing. However, scaling GCRL to longer horizons remains challenging due to the combination of sparse rewards and discounting, which obscures the comparative advantages of primitive actions with respect to distant goals. Hierarchical RL methods achieve strong empirical results on long-horizon goal-reaching tasks, but their reliance on modular, timescale-specific policies and subgoal generation introduces significant additional complexity and hinders scaling to high-dimensional goal spaces. In this work, we introduce an algorithm to train a flat (non-hierarchical) goal-conditioned policy by bootstrapping on subgoal-conditioned policies with advantage-weighted importance sampling. Our approach eliminates the need for a generative model over the (sub)goal space, which we find is key for scaling to high-dimensional control in large state spaces. We further show that existing hierarchical and bootstrapping-based approaches correspond to specific design choices within our derivation. Across a comprehensive suite of state- and pixel-based locomotion and manipulation benchmarks, our method matches or surpasses state-of-the-art offline GCRL algorithms and scales to complex, long-horizon tasks where prior approaches fail. Project page: https://johnlyzhou.github.io/saw/

Forecasting what will happen next is a critical skill for general-purpose systems that plan or act in the world at different levels of abstraction. In this paper, we identify a strong correlation between a vision model's perceptual ability and its generalist forecasting performance over short time horizons. This trend holds across a diverse set of pretrained models-including those trained generatively-and across multiple levels of abstraction, from raw pixels to depth, point tracks, and object motion. The result is made possible by a novel generalist forecasting framework that operates on any frozen vision backbone: we train latent diffusion models to forecast future features in the frozen representation space, which are then decoded via lightweight, task-specific readouts. To enable consistent evaluation across tasks, we introduce distributional metrics that compare distributional properties directly in the space of downstream tasks and apply this framework to nine models and four tasks. Our results highlight the value of bridging representation learning and generative modeling for temporally grounded video understanding.

Executing language-conditioned tasks in dynamic visual environments remains a central challenge in embodied AI. Existing Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models predominantly adopt reactive state-to-action mappings, often leading to short-sighted behaviors and poor robustness in dynamic scenes. In this paper, we introduce F1, a pretrained VLA framework which integrates the visual foresight generation into decision-making pipeline. F1 adopts a Mixture-of-Transformer architecture with dedicated modules for perception, foresight generation, and control, thereby bridging understanding, generation, and actions. At its core, F1 employs a next-scale prediction mechanism to synthesize goal-conditioned visual foresight as explicit planning targets. By forecasting plausible future visual states, F1 reformulates action generation as a foresight-guided inverse dynamics problem, enabling actions that implicitly achieve visual goals. To endow F1 with robust and generalizable capabilities, we propose a three-stage training recipe on an extensive dataset comprising over 330k trajectories across 136 diverse tasks. This training scheme enhances modular reasoning and equips the model with transferable visual foresight, which is critical for complex and dynamic environments. Extensive evaluations on real-world tasks and simulation benchmarks demonstrate F1 consistently outperforms existing approaches, achieving substantial gains in both task success rate and generalization ability.

In most real-world applications of artificial intelligence, the distributions of the data and the goals of the learners tend to change over time. The Probably Approximately Correct (PAC) learning framework, which underpins most machine learning algorithms, fails to account for dynamic data distributions and evolving objectives, often resulting in suboptimal performance. Prospective learning is a recently introduced mathematical framework that overcomes some of these limitations. We build on this framework to present preliminary results that improve the algorithm and numerical results, and extend prospective learning to sequential decision-making scenarios, specifically foraging. Code is available at: https://github.com/neurodata/prolearn2.

If generalist robots are to operate in truly unstructured environments, they need to be able to recognize and reason about novel objects and scenarios. Such objects and scenarios might not be present in the robot's own training data. We propose SuSIE, a method that leverages an image-editing diffusion model to act as a high-level planner by proposing intermediate subgoals that a low-level controller can accomplish. Specifically, we finetune InstructPix2Pix on video data, consisting of both human videos and robot rollouts, such that it outputs hypothetical future "subgoal" observations given the robot's current observation and a language command. We also use the robot data to train a low-level goal-conditioned policy to act as the aforementioned low-level controller. We find that the high-level subgoal predictions can utilize Internet-scale pretraining and visual understanding to guide the low-level goal-conditioned policy, achieving significantly better generalization and precision than conventional language-conditioned policies. We achieve state-of-the-art results on the CALVIN benchmark, and also demonstrate robust generalization on real-world manipulation tasks, beating strong baselines that have access to privileged information or that utilize orders of magnitude more compute and training data. The project website can be found at http://rail-berkeley.github.io/susie .

We introduce a generic strategy for provably efficient multi-goal exploration. It relies on AdaGoal, a novel goal selection scheme that leverages a measure of uncertainty in reaching states to adaptively target goals that are neither too difficult nor too easy. We show how AdaGoal can be used to tackle the objective of learning an ε-optimal goal-conditioned policy for the (initially unknown) set of goal states that are reachable within L steps in expectation from a reference state s_0 in a reward-free Markov decision process. In the tabular case with S states and A actions, our algorithm requires O(L^3 S A ε^{-2}) exploration steps, which is nearly minimax optimal. We also readily instantiate AdaGoal in linear mixture Markov decision processes, yielding the first goal-oriented PAC guarantee with linear function approximation. Beyond its strong theoretical guarantees, we anchor AdaGoal in goal-conditioned deep reinforcement learning, both conceptually and empirically, by connecting its idea of selecting "uncertain" goals to maximizing value ensemble disagreement.

Large language model (LLM)-based agents exhibit strong step-by-step reasoning capabilities over short horizons, yet often fail to sustain coherent behavior over long planning horizons. We argue that this failure reflects a fundamental mismatch: step-wise reasoning induces a form of step-wise greedy policy that is adequate for short horizons but fails in long-horizon planning, where early actions must account for delayed consequences. From this planning-centric perspective, we study LLM-based agents in deterministic, fully structured environments with explicit state transitions and evaluation signals. Our analysis reveals a core failure mode of reasoning-based policies: locally optimal choices induced by step-wise scoring lead to early myopic commitments that are systematically amplified over time and difficult to recover from. We introduce FLARE (Future-aware Lookahead with Reward Estimation) as a minimal instantiation of future-aware planning to enforce explicit lookahead, value propagation, and limited commitment in a single model, allowing downstream outcomes to influence early decisions. Across multiple benchmarks, agent frameworks, and LLM backbones, FLARE consistently improves task performance and planning-level behavior, frequently allowing LLaMA-8B with FLARE to outperform GPT-4o with standard step-by-step reasoning. These results establish a clear distinction between reasoning and planning.

Large language models (LLMs) demonstrate impressive reasoning abilities, but translating reasoning into actions in the real world remains challenging. In particular, it remains unclear how to complete a given task provably within a minimum number of interactions with the external environment, e.g., through an internal mechanism of reasoning. To this end, we propose a principled framework with provable regret guarantees to orchestrate reasoning and acting, which we call "reason for future, act for now" (RAFA). Specifically, we design a prompt template for reasoning that learns from the memory buffer and plans a future trajectory over a long horizon ("reason for future"). At each step, the LLM agent takes the initial action of the planned trajectory ("act for now"), stores the collected feedback in the memory buffer, and reinvokes the reasoning routine to replan the future trajectory from the new state. The key idea is to cast reasoning in LLMs as learning and planning in Bayesian adaptive Markov decision processes (MDPs). Correspondingly, we prompt LLMs to form an updated posterior of the unknown environment from the memory buffer (learning) and generate an optimal trajectory for multiple future steps that maximizes a value function (planning). The learning and planning subroutines are performed in an "in-context" manner to emulate the actor-critic update for MDPs. Our theoretical analysis proves that the novel combination of long-term reasoning and short-term acting achieves a T regret. In particular, the regret bound highlights an intriguing interplay between the prior knowledge obtained through pretraining and the uncertainty reduction achieved by reasoning and acting. Our empirical validation shows that it outperforms various existing frameworks and achieves nearly perfect scores on a few benchmarks.

Recent improvements in conditional generative modeling have made it possible to generate high-quality images from language descriptions alone. We investigate whether these methods can directly address the problem of sequential decision-making. We view decision-making not through the lens of reinforcement learning (RL), but rather through conditional generative modeling. To our surprise, we find that our formulation leads to policies that can outperform existing offline RL approaches across standard benchmarks. By modeling a policy as a return-conditional diffusion model, we illustrate how we may circumvent the need for dynamic programming and subsequently eliminate many of the complexities that come with traditional offline RL. We further demonstrate the advantages of modeling policies as conditional diffusion models by considering two other conditioning variables: constraints and skills. Conditioning on a single constraint or skill during training leads to behaviors at test-time that can satisfy several constraints together or demonstrate a composition of skills. Our results illustrate that conditional generative modeling is a powerful tool for decision-making.

Specifying robotic manipulation tasks in a manner that is both expressive and precise remains a central challenge. While visual goals provide a compact and unambiguous task specification, existing goal-conditioned policies often struggle with long-horizon manipulation due to their reliance on single-step action prediction without explicit modeling of task progress. We propose Act2Goal, a general goal-conditioned manipulation policy that integrates a goal-conditioned visual world model with multi-scale temporal control. Given a current observation and a target visual goal, the world model generates a plausible sequence of intermediate visual states that captures long-horizon structure. To translate this visual plan into robust execution, we introduce Multi-Scale Temporal Hashing (MSTH), which decomposes the imagined trajectory into dense proximal frames for fine-grained closed-loop control and sparse distal frames that anchor global task consistency. The policy couples these representations with motor control through end-to-end cross-attention, enabling coherent long-horizon behavior while remaining reactive to local disturbances. Act2Goal achieves strong zero-shot generalization to novel objects, spatial layouts, and environments. We further enable reward-free online adaptation through hindsight goal relabeling with LoRA-based finetuning, allowing rapid autonomous improvement without external supervision. Real-robot experiments demonstrate that Act2Goal improves success rates from 30% to 90% on challenging out-of-distribution tasks within minutes of autonomous interaction, validating that goal-conditioned world models with multi-scale temporal control provide structured guidance necessary for robust long-horizon manipulation. Project page: https://act2goal.github.io/

Robotic manipulation requires anticipating how the environment evolves in response to actions, yet most existing systems lack this predictive capability, often resulting in errors and inefficiency. While Vision-Language Models (VLMs) provide high-level guidance, they cannot explicitly forecast future states, and existing world models either predict only short horizons or produce spatially inconsistent frames. To address these challenges, we propose a framework for fast and predictive video-conditioned action. Our approach first selects and adapts a robust video generation model to ensure reliable future predictions, then applies adversarial distillation for fast, few-step video generation, and finally trains an action model that leverages both generated videos and real observations to correct spatial errors. Extensive experiments show that our method produces temporally coherent, spatially accurate video predictions that directly support precise manipulation, achieving significant improvements in embodiment consistency, spatial referring ability, and task completion over existing baselines. Codes & Models will be released.

Future prediction is a complex task for LLM agents, requiring a high level of analytical thinking, information gathering, contextual understanding, and decision-making under uncertainty. Agents must not only gather and interpret vast amounts of dynamic information but also integrate diverse data sources, weigh uncertainties, and adapt predictions based on emerging trends, just as human experts do in fields like politics, economics, and finance. Despite its importance, no large-scale benchmark exists for evaluating agents on future prediction, largely due to challenges in handling real-time updates and retrieving timely, accurate answers. To address this, we introduce FutureX, a dynamic and live evaluation benchmark specifically designed for LLM agents performing future prediction tasks. FutureX is the largest and most diverse live benchmark for future prediction, supporting real-time daily updates and eliminating data contamination through an automated pipeline for question gathering and answer collection. We evaluate 25 LLM/agent models, including those with reasoning, search capabilities, and integration of external tools such as the open-source Deep Research Agent and closed-source Deep Research models. This comprehensive evaluation assesses agents' adaptive reasoning and performance in dynamic environments. Additionally, we provide in-depth analyses of agents' failure modes and performance pitfalls in future-oriented tasks, including the vulnerability to fake web pages and the temporal validity. Our goal is to establish a dynamic, contamination-free evaluation standard that drives the development of LLM agents capable of performing at the level of professional human analysts in complex reasoning and predictive thinking.

Reinforcement learning (RL) is typically concerned with estimating stationary policies or single-step models, leveraging the Markov property to factorize problems in time. However, we can also view RL as a generic sequence modeling problem, with the goal being to produce a sequence of actions that leads to a sequence of high rewards. Viewed in this way, it is tempting to consider whether high-capacity sequence prediction models that work well in other domains, such as natural-language processing, can also provide effective solutions to the RL problem. To this end, we explore how RL can be tackled with the tools of sequence modeling, using a Transformer architecture to model distributions over trajectories and repurposing beam search as a planning algorithm. Framing RL as sequence modeling problem simplifies a range of design decisions, allowing us to dispense with many of the components common in offline RL algorithms. We demonstrate the flexibility of this approach across long-horizon dynamics prediction, imitation learning, goal-conditioned RL, and offline RL. Further, we show that this approach can be combined with existing model-free algorithms to yield a state-of-the-art planner in sparse-reward, long-horizon tasks.

Adaptive behavior often requires predicting future events. The theory of reinforcement learning prescribes what kinds of predictive representations are useful and how to compute them. This paper integrates these theoretical ideas with work on cognition and neuroscience. We pay special attention to the successor representation (SR) and its generalizations, which have been widely applied both as engineering tools and models of brain function. This convergence suggests that particular kinds of predictive representations may function as versatile building blocks of intelligence.

Video event prediction (VEP) requires models to infer unobserved future states from partial video evidence. Existing video MLLMs usually verbalize intermediate future reasoning in text space: once visual evidence is verbalized, fine-grained motion, geometry, and interaction cues can be lost, leading to plausible but visually ungrounded hallucinations. We introduce Future-L1, an interleaved latent visual reasoning framework that lets an MLLM alternate between language tokens and continuous latent visual spans during autoregressive decoding. To train this capability, we construct Future-L1-50K by selecting examples where future visual hints help prediction and align latent states to future-frame embeddings, then further optimize sampled latent trajectories with LA-DAPO, a latent-aware RL objective with outcome-contrastive and temporal-diversity rewards. Future-L1 achieves new state-of-the-art results on both benchmarks: on FutureBench, it improves Qwen3-VL-8B from 61.0 to 85.4 and exceeds the previous best Video-CoE by 10.4 points; on TwiFF-Bench, it improves the average score from 2.44 to 3.04. These results suggest that future-oriented video reasoning benefits from preserving intermediate visual semantics in latent space rather than translating every reasoning step into text.

Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models advance robotic control via strong visual-linguistic priors. However, existing VLAs predominantly frame pretraining as supervised behavior cloning, overlooking the fundamental nature of robot learning as a goal-reaching process that requires understanding temporal task progress. We present PRTS (Primitive Reasoning and Tasking System), a VLA foundation model that reformulates pretraining through Goal-Conditioned Reinforcement Learning. By treating language instructions as goals and employing contrastive reinforcement learning, PRTS learns a unified embedding space where the inner product of state-action and goal embeddings approximates the log-discounted goal occupancy, the probability of reaching the language-specified goal from the current state-action, quantitatively assessing physical feasibility beyond static semantic matching. PRTS draws this dense goal-reachability supervision directly from offline trajectories without reward annotations, and folds it into the VLM backbone via a role-aware causal mask, incurring negligible overhead over vanilla behavior cloning. This paradigm endows the high-level reasoning system with intrinsic goal reachability awareness, bridging semantic reasoning and temporal task progress, and further benefits goal-conditioned action prediction. Pretrained on 167B tokens of diverse manipulation and embodied-reasoning data, PRTS reaches state-of-the-art performance on LIBERO, LIBERO-Pro, LIBERO-Plus, SimplerEnv, and a real-world suite of 14 complex tasks, with particularly substantial gains on long-horizon, contact-rich, and zero-shot novel-instruction settings, confirming that injecting goal-reachability awareness significantly improves both execution success and long-horizon planning of general-purpose robotic foundation policies.

Industrial robotic manipulation demands reliable long-horizon execution across embodiments, tasks, and changing object distributions. While Vision-Language-Action models have demonstrated strong generalization, they remain fundamentally reactive. By optimizing the next action given the current observation without evaluating potential futures, they are brittle to the compounding failure modes of long-horizon tasks. Cortex 2.0 shifts from reactive control to plan-and-act by generating candidate future trajectories in visual latent space, scoring them for expected success and efficiency, then committing only to the highest-scoring candidate. We evaluate Cortex 2.0 on a single-arm and dual-arm manipulation platform across four tasks of increasing complexity: pick and place, item and trash sorting, screw sorting, and shoebox unpacking. Cortex 2.0 consistently outperforms state-of-the-art Vision-Language-Action baselines, achieving the best results across all tasks. The system remains reliable in unstructured environments characterized by heavy clutter, frequent occlusions, and contact-rich manipulation, where reactive policies fail. These results demonstrate that world-model-based planning can operate reliably in complex industrial environments.

We present a new robotic foundation model, called π_{0.7}, that can enable strong out-of-the-box performance in a wide range of scenarios. π_{0.7} can follow diverse language instructions in unseen environments, including multi-stage tasks with various kitchen appliances, provide zero-shot cross-embodiment generalization, for example enabling a robot to fold laundry without seeing the task before, and perform challenging tasks such as operating an espresso machine out of the box at a level of performance that matches much more specialized RL-finetuned models. The main idea behind π_{0.7} is to use diverse context conditioning during training. This conditioning information, contained in the prompt, makes it possible to steer the model precisely to perform many tasks with different strategies. It is conditioned not just on a language command that describes what it should do, but on additional multimodal information that also describes the manner or strategy in which it should do it, including metadata about task performance and subgoal images. This enables π_{0.7} to use very diverse data, including demonstrations, potentially suboptimal (autonomous) data including failures, and data from non-robot sources. Our experiments evaluate π_{0.7} across numerous tasks with multiple robot platforms, on tasks that require speed and dexterity, language following, and compositional task generalization.

Many real-world prediction problems lack labels observable at prediction time, creating a temporal gap between prediction and outcome that yields supervision only after events resolve. To address this setting, we extend reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards to temporally resolved real-world prediction, and use it to train language models to make probabilistic forecasts under causally masked information with retrospective evaluation using proper scoring rules. Supervision is derived solely from post-resolution outcomes, preserving delayed-reward semantics. On real-world forecasting benchmarks, Qwen3-32B trained using Foresight Learning improves Brier score by 27% and halves calibration error relative to its pretrained baseline, and outperforms Qwen3-235B on both constructed future-event prediction tasks and the Metaculus benchmark despite a 7x parameter disadvantage.

While deep reinforcement learning excels at solving tasks where large amounts of data can be collected through virtually unlimited interaction with the environment, learning from limited interaction remains a key challenge. We posit that an agent can learn more efficiently if we augment reward maximization with self-supervised objectives based on structure in its visual input and sequential interaction with the environment. Our method, Self-Predictive Representations(SPR), trains an agent to predict its own latent state representations multiple steps into the future. We compute target representations for future states using an encoder which is an exponential moving average of the agent's parameters and we make predictions using a learned transition model. On its own, this future prediction objective outperforms prior methods for sample-efficient deep RL from pixels. We further improve performance by adding data augmentation to the future prediction loss, which forces the agent's representations to be consistent across multiple views of an observation. Our full self-supervised objective, which combines future prediction and data augmentation, achieves a median human-normalized score of 0.415 on Atari in a setting limited to 100k steps of environment interaction, which represents a 55% relative improvement over the previous state-of-the-art. Notably, even in this limited data regime, SPR exceeds expert human scores on 7 out of 26 games. The code associated with this work is available at https://github.com/mila-iqia/spr

A goal of artificial intelligence is to construct an agent that can solve a wide variety of tasks. Recent progress in text-guided image synthesis has yielded models with an impressive ability to generate complex novel images, exhibiting combinatorial generalization across domains. Motivated by this success, we investigate whether such tools can be used to construct more general-purpose agents. Specifically, we cast the sequential decision making problem as a text-conditioned video generation problem, where, given a text-encoded specification of a desired goal, a planner synthesizes a set of future frames depicting its planned actions in the future, after which control actions are extracted from the generated video. By leveraging text as the underlying goal specification, we are able to naturally and combinatorially generalize to novel goals. The proposed policy-as-video formulation can further represent environments with different state and action spaces in a unified space of images, which, for example, enables learning and generalization across a variety of robot manipulation tasks. Finally, by leveraging pretrained language embeddings and widely available videos from the internet, the approach enables knowledge transfer through predicting highly realistic video plans for real robots.

LLM-for-time series (TS) methods typically treat time shallowly, injecting positional or prompt-based cues once at the input of a largely frozen decoder, which limits temporal reasoning as this information degrades through the layers. We introduce Temporal-Prior Conditioning (TPC), which elevates time to a first-class modality that conditions the model at multiple depths. TPC attaches a small set of learnable time series tokens to the patch stream; at selected layers these tokens cross-attend to temporal embeddings derived from compact, human-readable temporal descriptors encoded by the same frozen LLM, then feed temporal context back via self-attention. This disentangles time series signal and temporal information while maintaining a low parameter budget. We show that by training only the cross-attention modules and explicitly disentangling time series signal and temporal information, TPC consistently outperforms both full fine-tuning and shallow conditioning strategies, achieving state-of-the-art performance in long-term forecasting across diverse datasets. Code available at: https://github.com/fil-mp/Deep_tpc

Imagining the future trajectory is the key for robots to make sound planning and successfully reach their goals. Therefore, text-conditioned video prediction (TVP) is an essential task to facilitate general robot policy learning. To tackle this task and empower robots with the ability to foresee the future, we propose a sample and computation-efficient model, named Seer, by inflating the pretrained text-to-image (T2I) stable diffusion models along the temporal axis. We enhance the U-Net and language conditioning model by incorporating computation-efficient spatial-temporal attention. Furthermore, we introduce a novel Frame Sequential Text Decomposer module that dissects a sentence's global instruction into temporally aligned sub-instructions, ensuring precise integration into each frame of generation. Our framework allows us to effectively leverage the extensive prior knowledge embedded in pretrained T2I models across the frames. With the adaptable-designed architecture, Seer makes it possible to generate high-fidelity, coherent, and instruction-aligned video frames by fine-tuning a few layers on a small amount of data. The experimental results on Something Something V2 (SSv2), Bridgedata and EpicKitchens-100 datasets demonstrate our superior video prediction performance with around 480-GPU hours versus CogVideo with over 12,480-GPU hours: achieving the 31% FVD improvement compared to the current SOTA model on SSv2 and 83.7% average preference in the human evaluation.

Can a mere next-token predictor faithfully model human intelligence? We crystallize this intuitive concern, which is fragmented in the literature. As a starting point, we argue that the two often-conflated phases of next-token prediction -- autoregressive inference and teacher-forced training -- must be treated distinctly. The popular criticism that errors can compound during autoregressive inference, crucially assumes that teacher-forcing has learned an accurate next-token predictor. This assumption sidesteps a more deep-rooted problem we expose: in certain classes of tasks, teacher-forcing can simply fail to learn an accurate next-token predictor in the first place. We describe a general mechanism of how teacher-forcing can fail, and design a minimal planning task where both the Transformer and the Mamba architecture empirically fail in that manner -- remarkably, despite the task being straightforward to learn. We provide preliminary evidence that this failure can be resolved when training to predict multiple tokens in advance. We hope this finding can ground future debates and inspire explorations beyond the next-token prediction paradigm. We make our code available under https://github.com/gregorbachmann/Next-Token-Failures

Video prediction aims to generate realistic future frames by learning dynamic visual patterns. One fundamental challenge is to deal with future uncertainty: How should a model behave when there are multiple correct, equally probable future? We propose an Appearance-Motion Conditional GAN to address this challenge. We provide appearance and motion information as conditions that specify how the future may look like, reducing the level of uncertainty. Our model consists of a generator, two discriminators taking charge of appearance and motion pathways, and a perceptual ranking module that encourages videos of similar conditions to look similar. To train our model, we develop a novel conditioning scheme that consists of different combinations of appearance and motion conditions. We evaluate our model using facial expression and human action datasets and report favorable results compared to existing methods.

We introduce Goal-Conditioned Visual Navigation Instruction Generation (GoViG), a new task that aims to autonomously generate precise and contextually coherent navigation instructions solely from egocentric visual observations of initial and goal states. Unlike conventional approaches that rely on structured inputs such as semantic annotations or environmental maps, GoViG exclusively leverages raw egocentric visual data, substantially improving its adaptability to unseen and unstructured environments. Our method addresses this task by decomposing it into two interconnected subtasks: (1) visual forecasting, which predicts intermediate visual states bridging the initial and goal views; and (2) instruction generation, which synthesizes linguistically coherent instructions grounded in both observed and anticipated visuals. These subtasks are integrated within an autoregressive multimodal large language model trained with tailored objectives to ensure spatial accuracy and linguistic clarity. Furthermore, we introduce two complementary multimodal reasoning strategies, one-pass and interleaved reasoning, to mimic incremental human cognitive processes during navigation. To evaluate our method, we propose the R2R-Goal dataset, combining diverse synthetic and real-world trajectories. Empirical results demonstrate significant improvements over state-of-the-art methods, achieving superior BLEU-4 and CIDEr scores along with robust cross-domain generalization.

One of the predominant methods for training world models is autoregressive prediction in the output space of the next element of a sequence. In Natural Language Processing (NLP), this takes the form of Large Language Models (LLMs) predicting the next token; in Computer Vision (CV), this takes the form of autoregressive models predicting the next frame/token/pixel. However, this approach differs from human cognition in several respects. First, human predictions about the future actively influence internal cognitive processes. Second, humans naturally evaluate the plausibility of predictions regarding future states. Based on this capability, and third, by assessing when predictions are sufficient, humans allocate a dynamic amount of time to make a prediction. This adaptive process is analogous to System 2 thinking in psychology. All these capabilities are fundamental to the success of humans at high-level reasoning and planning. Therefore, to address the limitations of traditional autoregressive models lacking these human-like capabilities, we introduce Energy-Based World Models (EBWM). EBWM involves training an Energy-Based Model (EBM) to predict the compatibility of a given context and a predicted future state. In doing so, EBWM enables models to achieve all three facets of human cognition described. Moreover, we developed a variant of the traditional autoregressive transformer tailored for Energy-Based models, termed the Energy-Based Transformer (EBT). Our results demonstrate that EBWM scales better with data and GPU Hours than traditional autoregressive transformers in CV, and that EBWM offers promising early scaling in NLP. Consequently, this approach offers an exciting path toward training future models capable of System 2 thinking and intelligently searching across state spaces.

Techniques that learn improved representations via offline data or self-supervised objectives have shown impressive results in traditional reinforcement learning (RL). Nevertheless, it is unclear how improved representation learning can benefit reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF) on language models (LMs). In this work, we propose training reward models (RMs) in a contrastive, goal-conditioned fashion by increasing the representation similarity of future states along sampled preferred trajectories and decreasing the similarity along randomly sampled dispreferred trajectories. This objective significantly improves RM performance by up to 0.09 AUROC across challenging benchmarks, such as MATH and GSM8k. These findings extend to general alignment as well -- on the Helpful-Harmless dataset, we observe 2.3% increase in accuracy. Beyond improving reward model performance, we show this way of training RM representations enables improved steerability because it allows us to evaluate the likelihood of an action achieving a particular goal-state (e.g., whether a solution is correct or helpful). Leveraging this insight, we find that we can filter up to 55% of generated tokens during majority voting by discarding trajectories likely to end up in an "incorrect" state, which leads to significant cost savings. We additionally find that these representations can perform fine-grained control by conditioning on desired future goal-states. For example, we show that steering a Llama 3 model towards helpful generations with our approach improves helpfulness by 9.6% over a supervised-fine-tuning trained baseline. Similarly, steering the model towards complex generations improves complexity by 21.6% over the baseline. Overall, we find that training RMs in this contrastive, goal-conditioned fashion significantly improves performance and enables model steerability.

Next-token prediction serves as the foundational learning task enabling reasoning in LLMs. But what should the learning task be when aiming to equip MLLMs with temporal reasoning capabilities over video inputs? Existing tasks such as video question answering often rely on annotations from humans or much stronger MLLMs, while video captioning tends to entangle temporal reasoning with spatial information. To address this gap, we propose next-event prediction (NEP), a learning task that harnesses future video segments as a rich, self-supervised signal to foster temporal reasoning. We segment each video into past and future frames: the MLLM takes the past frames as input and predicts a summary of events derived from the future frames, thereby encouraging the model to reason temporally in order to complete the task. To support this task, we curate V1-33K, a dataset comprising 33,000 automatically extracted video segments spanning diverse real-world scenarios. We further explore a range of video instruction-tuning strategies to study their effects on temporal reasoning. To evaluate progress, we introduce FutureBench to assess coherence in predicting unseen future events. Experiments validate that NEP offers a scalable and effective training paradigm for fostering temporal reasoning in MLLMs.

High-stakes decision making involves reasoning under uncertainty about the future. In this work, we train language models to make predictions on open-ended forecasting questions. To scale up training data, we synthesize novel forecasting questions from global events reported in daily news, using a fully automated, careful curation recipe. We train the Qwen3 thinking models on our dataset, OpenForesight. To prevent leakage of future information during training and evaluation, we use an offline news corpus, both for data generation and retrieval in our forecasting system. Guided by a small validation set, we show the benefits of retrieval, and an improved reward function for reinforcement learning (RL). Once we obtain our final forecasting system, we perform held-out testing between May to August 2025. Our specialized model, OpenForecaster 8B, matches much larger proprietary models, with our training improving the accuracy, calibration, and consistency of predictions. We find calibration improvements from forecasting training generalize across popular benchmarks. We open-source all our models, code, and data to make research on language model forecasting broadly accessible.

Planning with world models offers a powerful paradigm for robotic control. Conventional approaches train a model to predict future frames conditioned on current frames and actions, which can then be used for planning. However, the objective of predicting future pixels is often at odds with the actual planning objective; strong pixel reconstruction does not always correlate with good planning decisions. This paper posits that instead of reconstructing future frames as pixels, world models only need to predict task-relevant semantic information about the future. For such prediction the paper poses world modeling as a visual question answering problem about semantic information in future frames. This perspective allows world modeling to be approached with the same tools underlying vision language models. Thus vision language models can be trained as "semantic" world models through a supervised finetuning process on image-action-text data, enabling planning for decision-making while inheriting many of the generalization and robustness properties from the pretrained vision-language models. The paper demonstrates how such a semantic world model can be used for policy improvement on open-ended robotics tasks, leading to significant generalization improvements over typical paradigms of reconstruction-based action-conditional world modeling. Website available at https://weirdlabuw.github.io/swm.

In long-horizon tasks, recent agents based on Large Language Models (LLMs) face a significant challenge that sparse, outcome-based rewards make it difficult to assign credit to intermediate steps. Previous methods mainly focus on creating dense reward signals to guide learning, either through traditional reinforcement learning techniques like inverse reinforcement learning or by using Process Reward Models for step-by-step feedback. In this paper, we identify a fundamental problem in the learning dynamics of LLMs: the magnitude of policy gradients is inherently coupled with the entropy, which leads to inefficient small updates for confident correct actions and potentially destabilizes large updates for uncertain ones. To resolve this, we propose Entropy-Modulated Policy Gradients (EMPG), a framework that re-calibrates the learning signal based on step-wise uncertainty and the final task outcome. EMPG amplifies updates for confident correct actions, penalizes confident errors, and attenuates updates from uncertain steps to stabilize exploration. We further introduce a bonus term for future clarity that encourages agents to find more predictable solution paths. Through comprehensive experiments on three challenging agent tasks, WebShop, ALFWorld, and Deep Search, we demonstrate that EMPG achieves substantial performance gains and significantly outperforms strong policy gradient baselines. Project page is at https://empgseed-seed.github.io/

Recently, diffusion model shines as a promising backbone for the sequence modeling paradigm in offline reinforcement learning(RL). However, these works mostly lack the generalization ability across tasks with reward or dynamics change. To tackle this challenge, in this paper we propose a task-oriented conditioned diffusion planner for offline meta-RL(MetaDiffuser), which considers the generalization problem as conditional trajectory generation task with contextual representation. The key is to learn a context conditioned diffusion model which can generate task-oriented trajectories for planning across diverse tasks. To enhance the dynamics consistency of the generated trajectories while encouraging trajectories to achieve high returns, we further design a dual-guided module in the sampling process of the diffusion model. The proposed framework enjoys the robustness to the quality of collected warm-start data from the testing task and the flexibility to incorporate with different task representation method. The experiment results on MuJoCo benchmarks show that MetaDiffuser outperforms other strong offline meta-RL baselines, demonstrating the outstanding conditional generation ability of diffusion architecture.

Being able to predict what may happen in the future requires an in-depth understanding of the physical and causal rules that govern the world. A model that is able to do so has a number of appealing applications, from robotic planning to representation learning. However, learning to predict raw future observations, such as frames in a video, is exceedingly challenging -- the ambiguous nature of the problem can cause a naively designed model to average together possible futures into a single, blurry prediction. Recently, this has been addressed by two distinct approaches: (a) latent variational variable models that explicitly model underlying stochasticity and (b) adversarially-trained models that aim to produce naturalistic images. However, a standard latent variable model can struggle to produce realistic results, and a standard adversarially-trained model underutilizes latent variables and fails to produce diverse predictions. We show that these distinct methods are in fact complementary. Combining the two produces predictions that look more realistic to human raters and better cover the range of possible futures. Our method outperforms prior and concurrent work in these aspects.

Temporal Point Processes (TPP) are probabilistic generative frameworks. They model discrete event sequences localized in continuous time. Generally, real-life events reveal descriptive information, known as marks. Marked TPPs model time and marks of the event together for practical relevance. Conditioned on past events, marked TPPs aim to learn the joint distribution of the time and the mark of the next event. For simplicity, conditionally independent TPP models assume time and marks are independent given event history. They factorize the conditional joint distribution of time and mark into the product of individual conditional distributions. This structural limitation in the design of TPP models hurt the predictive performance on entangled time and mark interactions. In this work, we model the conditional inter-dependence of time and mark to overcome the limitations of conditionally independent models. We construct a multivariate TPP conditioning the time distribution on the current event mark in addition to past events. Besides the conventional intensity-based models for conditional joint distribution, we also draw on flexible intensity-free TPP models from the literature. The proposed TPP models outperform conditionally independent and dependent models in standard prediction tasks. Our experimentation on various datasets with multiple evaluation metrics highlights the merit of the proposed approach.

Many events occur in the world. Some event types are stochastically excited or inhibited---in the sense of having their probabilities elevated or decreased---by patterns in the sequence of previous events. Discovering such patterns can help us predict which type of event will happen next and when. We model streams of discrete events in continuous time, by constructing a neurally self-modulating multivariate point process in which the intensities of multiple event types evolve according to a novel continuous-time LSTM. This generative model allows past events to influence the future in complex and realistic ways, by conditioning future event intensities on the hidden state of a recurrent neural network that has consumed the stream of past events. Our model has desirable qualitative properties. It achieves competitive likelihood and predictive accuracy on real and synthetic datasets, including under missing-data conditions.

Enabling VLA models to predict environmental dynamics, known as world modeling, has been recognized as essential for improving robotic reasoning and generalization. However, current approaches face two main issues: 1. The training objective forces models to over-emphasize pixel-level reconstruction, which constrains semantic learning and generalization 2. Reliance on predicted future observations during inference often leads to error accumulation. To address these challenges, we introduce Future Representation Alignment via Parallel Progressive Expansion (FRAPPE). Our method adopts a two-stage fine-tuning strategy: In the mid-training phase, the model learns to predict the latent representations of future observations; In the post-training phase, we expand the computational workload in parallel and align the representation simultaneously with multiple different visual foundation models. By significantly improving fine-tuning efficiency and reducing dependence on action-annotated data, FRAPPE provides a scalable and data-efficient pathway to enhance world-awareness in generalist robotic policies. Experiments on the RoboTwin benchmark and real-world tasks demonstrate that FRAPPE outperforms state-of-the-art approaches and shows strong generalization in long-horizon and unseen scenarios.

A latent world model may achieve accurate short-horizon prediction while still inducing a latent space that is poorly aligned with planning. A key issue is spatiotemporal mismatch: these models are often trained with local predictive supervision, but deployed for long-horizon goal-directed search in latent spaces where Euclidean distance may not reflect what is reachable within a finite action budget. We present the Reachability-Correction auxiliary objective (RC-aux), a lightweight correction for this mismatch in reconstruction-free latent world models. RC-aux keeps the world-model backbone unchanged and adds planning-aligned supervision along two axes. Along the time axis, multi-horizon open-loop prediction trains the model beyond one-step consistency. Along the space axis, budget-conditioned reachability supervision, together with temporal hard negatives, encourages the latent space to distinguish states that are eventually reachable from those reachable within the current planning horizon. At test time, the learned reachability signal can also be used by a reachability-aware planner to favor trajectories that are both goal-directed and attainable under the available budget. We instantiate RC-aux on LeWorldModel and evaluate it under both continuation-training and matched-from-scratch settings. Across goal-conditioned pixel-control tasks and a LIBERO-Goal extension, RC-aux improves LeWM-style planning with modest additional cost. These results suggest that planning with latent world models depends not only on predictive accuracy, but also on whether the learned representation encodes the temporal and geometric structure required by downstream search. The code is available at https://github.com/Guang000/RC-aux.

Generating continuous-time, continuous-space stochastic processes (e.g., videos, weather forecasts) conditioned on partial observations (e.g., first and last frames) is a fundamental challenge. Existing approaches, (e.g., diffusion models), suffer from key limitations: (1) noise-to-data evolution fails to capture structural similarity between states close in physical time and has unstable integration in low-step regimes; (2) random noise injected is insensitive to the physical process's time elapsed, resulting in incorrect dynamics; (3) they overlook conditioning on arbitrary subsets of states (e.g., irregularly sampled timesteps, future observations). We propose ABC: Any-Subset Autoregressive Models via Non-Markovian Diffusion Bridges in Continuous Time and Space. Crucially, we model the process with one continual SDE whose time variable and intermediate states track the real time and process states. This has provable advantages: (1) the starting point for generating future states is the already-close previous state, rather than uninformative noise; (2) random noise injection scales with physical time elapsed, encouraging physically plausible dynamics with similar time-adjacent states. We derive SDE dynamics via changes-of-measure on path space, yielding another advantage: (3) path-dependent conditioning on arbitrary subsets of the state history and/or future. To learn these dynamics, we derive a path- and time-dependent extension of denoising score matching. Our experiments show ABC's superiority to competing methods on multiple domains, including video generation and weather forecasting.

Although contrastive and other representation-learning methods have long been explored in vision and NLP, their adoption in modern time series forecasters remains limited. We believe they hold strong promise for this domain. To unlock this potential, we explicitly align past and future representations, thereby bridging the distributional gap between input histories and future targets. To this end, we introduce TimeAlign, a lightweight, plug-and-play framework that establishes a new representation paradigm, distinct from contrastive learning, by aligning auxiliary features via a simple reconstruction task and feeding them back into any base forecaster. Extensive experiments across eight benchmarks verify its superior performance. Further studies indicate that the gains arise primarily from correcting frequency mismatches between historical inputs and future outputs. Additionally, we provide two theoretical justifications for how reconstruction improves forecasting generalization and how alignment increases the mutual information between learned representations and predicted targets. The code is available at https://github.com/TROUBADOUR000/TimeAlign.

Embodied navigation for long-horizon tasks, guided by complex natural language instructions, remains a formidable challenge in artificial intelligence. Existing agents often struggle with robust long-term planning about unseen environments, leading to high failure rates. To address these limitations, we introduce NavForesee, a novel Vision-Language Model (VLM) that unifies high-level language planning and predictive world model imagination within a single, unified framework. Our approach empowers a single VLM to concurrently perform planning and predictive foresight. Conditioned on the full instruction and historical observations, the model is trained to understand the navigation instructions by decomposing the task, tracking its progress, and formulating the subsequent sub-goal. Simultaneously, it functions as a generative world model, providing crucial foresight by predicting short-term environmental dynamics and long-term navigation milestones. The VLM's structured plan guides its targeted prediction, while the imagined future provides rich context to inform the navigation actions, creating a powerful internal feedback loop of perception-planning/prediction-action. We demonstrate through extensive experiments on the R2R-CE and RxR-CE benchmark that NavForesee achieves highly competitive performance in complex scenarios. Our work highlights the immense potential of fusing explicit language planning with implicit spatiotemporal prediction, paving the way for more intelligent and capable embodied agents.

Learning a good history representation is one of the core challenges of reinforcement learning (RL) in partially observable environments. Recent works have shown the advantages of various auxiliary tasks for facilitating representation learning. However, the effectiveness of such auxiliary tasks has not been fully convincing, especially in partially observable environments that require long-term memorization and inference. In this empirical study, we investigate the effectiveness of future prediction for learning the representations of histories, possibly of extensive length, in partially observable environments. We first introduce an approach that decouples the task of learning history representations from policy optimization via future prediction. Then, our main contributions are two-fold: (a) we demonstrate that the performance of reinforcement learning is strongly correlated with the prediction accuracy of future observations in partially observable environments, and (b) our approach can significantly improve the overall end-to-end approach by preventing high-variance noisy signals from reinforcement learning objectives to influence the representation learning. We illustrate our claims on three types of benchmarks that necessitate the ability to process long histories for high returns.

In our pursuit of advancing multi-modal AI assistants capable of guiding users to achieve complex multi-step goals, we propose the task of "Visual Planning for Assistance (VPA)". Given a succinct natural language goal, e.g., "make a shelf", and a video of the user's progress so far, the aim of VPA is to devise a plan, i.e., a sequence of actions such as "sand shelf", "paint shelf", etc. to realize the specified goal. This requires assessing the user's progress from the (untrimmed) video, and relating it to the requirements of natural language goal, i.e., which actions to select and in what order? Consequently, this requires handling long video history and arbitrarily complex action dependencies. To address these challenges, we decompose VPA into video action segmentation and forecasting. Importantly, we experiment by formulating the forecasting step as a multi-modal sequence modeling problem, allowing us to leverage the strength of pre-trained LMs (as the sequence model). This novel approach, which we call Visual Language Model based Planner (VLaMP), outperforms baselines across a suite of metrics that gauge the quality of the generated plans. Furthermore, through comprehensive ablations, we also isolate the value of each component--language pre-training, visual observations, and goal information. We have open-sourced all the data, model checkpoints, and training code.

Consider the problem of exploration in sparse-reward or reward-free environments, such as in Montezuma's Revenge. In the curiosity-driven paradigm, the agent is rewarded for how much each realized outcome differs from their predicted outcome. But using predictive error as intrinsic motivation is fragile in stochastic environments, as the agent may become trapped by high-entropy areas of the state-action space, such as a "noisy TV". In this work, we study a natural solution derived from structural causal models of the world: Our key idea is to learn representations of the future that capture precisely the unpredictable aspects of each outcome -- which we use as additional input for predictions, such that intrinsic rewards only reflect the predictable aspects of world dynamics. First, we propose incorporating such hindsight representations into models to disentangle "noise" from "novelty", yielding Curiosity in Hindsight: a simple and scalable generalization of curiosity that is robust to stochasticity. Second, we instantiate this framework for the recently introduced BYOL-Explore algorithm as our prime example, resulting in the noise-robust BYOL-Hindsight. Third, we illustrate its behavior under a variety of different stochasticities in a grid world, and find improvements over BYOL-Explore in hard-exploration Atari games with sticky actions. Notably, we show state-of-the-art results in exploring Montezuma's Revenge with sticky actions, while preserving performance in the non-sticky setting.

Recent advancements in video generation have enabled the development of ``world models'' capable of simulating potential futures for robotics and planning. However, specifying precise goals for these models remains a challenge; text instructions are often too abstract to capture physical nuances, while target images are frequently infeasible to specify for dynamic tasks. To address this, we introduce Goal Force, a novel framework that allows users to define goals via explicit force vectors and intermediate dynamics, mirroring how humans conceptualize physical tasks. We train a video generation model on a curated dataset of synthetic causal primitives-such as elastic collisions and falling dominos-teaching it to propagate forces through time and space. Despite being trained on simple physics data, our model exhibits remarkable zero-shot generalization to complex, real-world scenarios, including tool manipulation and multi-object causal chains. Our results suggest that by grounding video generation in fundamental physical interactions, models can emerge as implicit neural physics simulators, enabling precise, physics-aware planning without reliance on external engines. We release all datasets, code, model weights, and interactive video demos at our project page.

Large Reasoning Models (LRMs) introduce new opportunities for safety monitoring through their Chain of Thought (CoT) reasoning. However, CoT is not always faithful to the model's final output, undermining its reliability as a monitoring tool. To address this, we investigate the hidden representations of LRMs to determine whether future behavior can be predicted from prompt and CoT representations. By evaluating a probe at each generated token, we construct a probe trajectory, the continuous evolution of a concept's probability across the reasoning process. We find that future model behavior is more distinguishable when examined over the full trajectory than from a single static prediction. To characterize these temporal dynamics, we extract signal-processing features that capture volatility, trend, and steady-state behavior, significantly improving the separation of future model states. We also present two methodological insights. First, template-based training data achieves near-parity with dynamically generated model responses, eliminating the need for a costly initial inference and labeling. Second, the choice of pooling operation is critical: average-pooling and last-token methods collapse to near-random performance, while max-pooling achieves up to 95% AUROC and yields stable probe trajectories. Using four datasets and four reasoning models across the domains of safety and mathematics, we demonstrate that trajectory features encode task-specific dynamics that improve outcome separability. These findings establish probe trajectories as a complementary framework for monitoring LRM behavior. Warning: This article contains potentially harmful content.

Large Language Models (LLMs) demonstrate impressive capabilities but lack robust temporal intelligence, struggling to integrate reasoning about the past with predictions and plausible generations of the future. Meanwhile, existing methods typically target isolated temporal skills, such as question answering about past events or basic forecasting, and exhibit poor generalization, particularly when dealing with events beyond their knowledge cutoff or requiring creative foresight. To address these limitations, we introduce Time-R1, the first framework to endow a moderate-sized (3B-parameter) LLM with comprehensive temporal abilities: understanding, prediction, and creative generation. Our approach features a novel three-stage development path; the first two constitute a reinforcement learning (RL) curriculum driven by a meticulously designed dynamic rule-based reward system. This framework progressively builds (1) foundational temporal understanding and logical event-time mappings from historical data, (2) future event prediction skills for events beyond its knowledge cutoff, and finally (3) enables remarkable generalization to creative future scenario generation without any fine-tuning. Strikingly, experiments demonstrate that Time-R1 outperforms models over 200 times larger, including the state-of-the-art 671B DeepSeek-R1, on highly challenging future event prediction and creative scenario generation benchmarks. This work provides strong evidence that thoughtfully engineered, progressive RL fine-tuning allows smaller, efficient models to achieve superior temporal performance, offering a practical and scalable path towards truly time-aware AI. To foster further research, we also release Time-Bench, a large-scale multi-task temporal reasoning dataset derived from 10 years of news data, and our series of Time-R1 checkpoints.

Deep reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms can learn complex robotic skills from raw sensory inputs, but have yet to achieve the kind of broad generalization and applicability demonstrated by deep learning methods in supervised domains. We present a deep RL method that is practical for real-world robotics tasks, such as robotic manipulation, and generalizes effectively to never-before-seen tasks and objects. In these settings, ground truth reward signals are typically unavailable, and we therefore propose a self-supervised model-based approach, where a predictive model learns to directly predict the future from raw sensory readings, such as camera images. At test time, we explore three distinct goal specification methods: designated pixels, where a user specifies desired object manipulation tasks by selecting particular pixels in an image and corresponding goal positions, goal images, where the desired goal state is specified with an image, and image classifiers, which define spaces of goal states. Our deep predictive models are trained using data collected autonomously and continuously by a robot interacting with hundreds of objects, without human supervision. We demonstrate that visual MPC can generalize to never-before-seen objects---both rigid and deformable---and solve a range of user-defined object manipulation tasks using the same model.

Graph-based deep learning methods have become popular tools to process collections of correlated time series. Differently from traditional multivariate forecasting methods, neural graph-based predictors take advantage of pairwise relationships by conditioning forecasts on a (possibly dynamic) graph spanning the time series collection. The conditioning can take the form of an architectural inductive bias on the neural forecasting architecture, resulting in a family of deep learning models called spatiotemporal graph neural networks. Such relational inductive biases enable the training of global forecasting models on large time-series collections, while at the same time localizing predictions w.r.t. each element in the set (i.e., graph nodes) by accounting for local correlations among them (i.e., graph edges). Indeed, recent theoretical and practical advances in graph neural networks and deep learning for time series forecasting make the adoption of such processing frameworks appealing and timely. However, most of the studies in the literature focus on proposing variations of existing neural architectures by taking advantage of modern deep learning practices, while foundational and methodological aspects have not been subject to systematic investigation. To fill the gap, this paper aims to introduce a comprehensive methodological framework that formalizes the forecasting problem and provides design principles for graph-based predictive models and methods to assess their performance. At the same time, together with an overview of the field, we provide design guidelines, recommendations, and best practices, as well as an in-depth discussion of open challenges and future research directions.

Most existing forecasting systems are memory-based methods, which attempt to mimic human forecasting ability by employing various memory mechanisms and have progressed in temporal modeling for memory dependency. Nevertheless, an obvious weakness of this paradigm is that it can only model limited historical dependence and can not transcend the past. In this paper, we rethink the temporal dependence of event evolution and propose a novel memory-anticipation-based paradigm to model an entire temporal structure, including the past, present, and future. Based on this idea, we present Memory-and-Anticipation Transformer (MAT), a memory-anticipation-based approach, to address the online action detection and anticipation tasks. In addition, owing to the inherent superiority of MAT, it can process online action detection and anticipation tasks in a unified manner. The proposed MAT model is tested on four challenging benchmarks TVSeries, THUMOS'14, HDD, and EPIC-Kitchens-100, for online action detection and anticipation tasks, and it significantly outperforms all existing methods. Code is available at https://github.com/Echo0125/Memory-and-Anticipation-Transformer.

Transformers replace recurrence with a memory that grows with sequence length and self-attention that enables ad-hoc look ups over past tokens. Consequently, they lack an inherent incentive to compress history into compact latent states with consistent transition rules. This often leads to learning solutions that generalize poorly. We introduce Next-Latent Prediction (NextLat), which extends standard next-token training with self-supervised predictions in the latent space. Specifically, NextLat trains a transformer to learn latent representations that are predictive of its next latent state given the next output token. Theoretically, we show that these latents provably converge to belief states, compressed information of the history necessary to predict the future. This simple auxiliary objective also injects a recurrent inductive bias into transformers, while leaving their architecture, parallel training, and inference unchanged. NextLat effectively encourages the transformer to form compact internal world models with its own belief states and transition dynamics -- a crucial property absent in standard next-token prediction transformers. Empirically, across benchmarks targeting core sequence modeling competencies -- world modeling, reasoning, planning, and language modeling -- NextLat demonstrates significant gains over standard next-token training in downstream accuracy, representation compression, and lookahead planning. NextLat stands as a simple and efficient paradigm for shaping transformer representations toward stronger generalization.

Integral to recent successes in deep reinforcement learning has been a class of temporal difference methods that use infrequently updated target values for policy evaluation in a Markov Decision Process. Yet a complete theoretical explanation for the effectiveness of target networks remains elusive. In this work, we provide an analysis of this popular class of algorithms, to finally answer the question: `why do target networks stabilise TD learning'? To do so, we formalise the notion of a partially fitted policy evaluation method, which describes the use of target networks and bridges the gap between fitted methods and semigradient temporal difference algorithms. Using this framework we are able to uniquely characterise the so-called deadly triad - the use of TD updates with (nonlinear) function approximation and off-policy data - which often leads to nonconvergent algorithms. This insight leads us to conclude that the use of target networks can mitigate the effects of poor conditioning in the Jacobian of the TD update. Instead, we show that under mild regularity conditions and a well tuned target network update frequency, convergence can be guaranteed even in the extremely challenging off-policy sampling and nonlinear function approximation setting.

Autoregressive (AR) visual generators model images as sequences of discrete tokens and are trained with a next-token likelihood objective. This strict causal supervision optimizes each step based only on the immediate next token, which can weaken global coherence and slow convergence. We investigate whether foresight, training signals that originate from later tokens, can improve autoregressive visual generation. We conduct a series of controlled diagnostics along the injection level, foresight layout, and foresight source axes, revealing a key insight: aligning foresight with AR models' internal representations on the 2D image grid improves causal modeling. We formulate this insight with Mirai (meaning "future" in Japanese), a general framework that injects future information into AR training with no architecture change and no extra inference overhead: Mirai-E uses explicit foresight from multiple future positions of unidirectional representations, whereas Mirai-I leverages implicit foresight from matched bidirectional representations. Extensive experiments show that Mirai significantly accelerates convergence and improves generation quality. For instance, Mirai can speed up LlamaGen-B's convergence by up to 10times and reduce the generation FID from 5.34 to 4.34 on the ImageNet class-condition image generation benchmark. Our study highlights that visual autoregressive models need foresight.

Offline goal-conditioned reinforcement learning (GCRL) offers a practical learning paradigm where goal-reaching policies are trained from abundant unlabeled (reward-free) datasets without additional environment interaction. However, offline GCRL still struggles with long-horizon tasks, even with recent advances that employ hierarchical policy structures, such as HIQL. By identifying the root cause of this challenge, we observe the following insights: First, performance bottlenecks mainly stem from the high-level policy's inability to generate appropriate subgoals. Second, when learning the high-level policy in the long-horizon regime, the sign of the advantage signal frequently becomes incorrect. Thus, we argue that improving the value function to produce a clear advantage signal for learning the high-level policy is essential. In this paper, we propose a simple yet effective solution: Option-aware Temporally Abstracted value learning, dubbed OTA, which incorporates temporal abstraction into the temporal-difference learning process. By modifying the value update to be option-aware, the proposed learning scheme contracts the effective horizon length, enabling better advantage estimates even in long-horizon regimes. We experimentally show that the high-level policy extracted using the OTA value function achieves strong performance on complex tasks from OGBench, a recently proposed offline GCRL benchmark, including maze navigation and visual robotic manipulation environments.

Artificial neural networks suffer from catastrophic forgetting when they are sequentially trained on multiple tasks. To overcome this problem, we present a novel approach based on task-conditioned hypernetworks, i.e., networks that generate the weights of a target model based on task identity. Continual learning (CL) is less difficult for this class of models thanks to a simple key feature: instead of recalling the input-output relations of all previously seen data, task-conditioned hypernetworks only require rehearsing task-specific weight realizations, which can be maintained in memory using a simple regularizer. Besides achieving state-of-the-art performance on standard CL benchmarks, additional experiments on long task sequences reveal that task-conditioned hypernetworks display a very large capacity to retain previous memories. Notably, such long memory lifetimes are achieved in a compressive regime, when the number of trainable hypernetwork weights is comparable or smaller than target network size. We provide insight into the structure of low-dimensional task embedding spaces (the input space of the hypernetwork) and show that task-conditioned hypernetworks demonstrate transfer learning. Finally, forward information transfer is further supported by empirical results on a challenging CL benchmark based on the CIFAR-10/100 image datasets.

Current robotic planning methods often rely on predicting multi-frame images with full pixel details. While this fine-grained approach can serve as a generic world model, it introduces two significant challenges for downstream policy learning: substantial computational costs that hinder real-time deployment, and accumulated inaccuracies that can mislead action extraction. Planning with coarse-grained subgoals partially alleviates efficiency issues. However, their forward planning schemes can still result in off-task predictions due to accumulation errors, leading to misalignment with long-term goals. This raises a critical question: Can robotic planning be both efficient and accurate enough for real-time control in long-horizon, multi-stage tasks? To address this, we propose a Latent Space Backward Planning scheme (LBP), which begins by grounding the task into final latent goals, followed by recursively predicting intermediate subgoals closer to the current state. The grounded final goal enables backward subgoal planning to always remain aware of task completion, facilitating on-task prediction along the entire planning horizon. The subgoal-conditioned policy incorporates a learnable token to summarize the subgoal sequences and determines how each subgoal guides action extraction. Through extensive simulation and real-robot long-horizon experiments, we show that LBP outperforms existing fine-grained and forward planning methods, achieving SOTA performance. Project Page: https://lbp-authors.github.io

Humans learn to master open-ended repertoires of skills by imagining and practicing their own goals. This autotelic learning process, literally the pursuit of self-generated (auto) goals (telos), becomes more and more open-ended as the goals become more diverse, abstract and creative. The resulting exploration of the space of possible skills is supported by an inter-individual exploration: goal representations are culturally evolved and transmitted across individuals, in particular using language. Current artificial agents mostly rely on predefined goal representations corresponding to goal spaces that are either bounded (e.g. list of instructions), or unbounded (e.g. the space of possible visual inputs) but are rarely endowed with the ability to reshape their goal representations, to form new abstractions or to imagine creative goals. In this paper, we introduce a language model augmented autotelic agent (LMA3) that leverages a pretrained language model (LM) to support the representation, generation and learning of diverse, abstract, human-relevant goals. The LM is used as an imperfect model of human cultural transmission; an attempt to capture aspects of humans' common-sense, intuitive physics and overall interests. Specifically, it supports three key components of the autotelic architecture: 1)~a relabeler that describes the goals achieved in the agent's trajectories, 2)~a goal generator that suggests new high-level goals along with their decomposition into subgoals the agent already masters, and 3)~reward functions for each of these goals. Without relying on any hand-coded goal representations, reward functions or curriculum, we show that LMA3 agents learn to master a large diversity of skills in a task-agnostic text-based environment.

For an autonomous agent to fulfill a wide range of user-specified goals at test time, it must be able to learn broadly applicable and general-purpose skill repertoires. Furthermore, to provide the requisite level of generality, these skills must handle raw sensory input such as images. In this paper, we propose an algorithm that acquires such general-purpose skills by combining unsupervised representation learning and reinforcement learning of goal-conditioned policies. Since the particular goals that might be required at test-time are not known in advance, the agent performs a self-supervised "practice" phase where it imagines goals and attempts to achieve them. We learn a visual representation with three distinct purposes: sampling goals for self-supervised practice, providing a structured transformation of raw sensory inputs, and computing a reward signal for goal reaching. We also propose a retroactive goal relabeling scheme to further improve the sample-efficiency of our method. Our off-policy algorithm is efficient enough to learn policies that operate on raw image observations and goals for a real-world robotic system, and substantially outperforms prior techniques.

LLMs are often trained with RL from human or AI feedback, yet such methods typically compress nuanced feedback into scalar rewards, discarding much of their richness and inducing scale imbalance. We propose treating verbal feedback as a conditioning signal. Inspired by language priors in text-to-image generation, which enable novel outputs from unseen prompts, we introduce the feedback-conditional policy (FCP). FCP learns directly from response-feedback pairs, approximating the feedback-conditional posterior through maximum likelihood training on offline data. We further develop an online bootstrapping stage where the policy generates under positive conditions and receives fresh feedback to refine itself. This reframes feedback-driven learning as conditional generation rather than reward optimization, offering a more expressive way for LLMs to directly learn from verbal feedback. Our code is available at https://github.com/sail-sg/feedback-conditional-policy.

Recently, supervised learning (SL) methodology has emerged as an effective approach for offline reinforcement learning (RL) due to their simplicity, stability, and efficiency. However, recent studies show that SL methods lack the trajectory stitching capability, typically associated with temporal difference (TD)-based approaches. A question naturally surfaces: How can we endow SL methods with stitching capability and bridge its performance gap with TD learning? To answer this question, we introduce Q-conditioned maximization supervised learning for offline goal-conditioned RL, which enhances SL with the stitching capability through Q-conditioned policy and Q-conditioned maximization. Concretely, we propose Goal-Conditioned Reinforced Supervised Learning (GCReinSL), which consists of (1) estimating the Q-function by CVAE from the offline dataset and (2) finding the maximum Q-value within the data support by integrating Q-function maximization with Expectile Regression. In inference time, our policy chooses optimal actions based on such a maximum Q-value. Experimental results from stitching evaluations on offline RL datasets demonstrate that our method outperforms prior SL approaches with stitching capabilities and goal data augmentation techniques.

The brain understands the external world through an internal model that generates predictions and refines them based on prediction errors. A complete prediction specifies what will happen, when it will happen, and with what probability, which we refer to as a "prediction object". Existing models typically capture only what and when, omit probabilities, and rely on biologically-implausible algorithms. Here we show that a single population of spiking neurons can jointly encode the prediction object through a biologically grounded learning mechanism. We implement a heterogeneous Izhikevich spiking reservoir with readouts trained by an error-modulated, attention-gated three-factor Hebbian rule and test it on a novel paradigm that controls both the timing and probability of upcoming stimuli. By integrating real-time learning of "when" with offline consolidation of "what", the model encodes the complete prediction object, firing at the correct times with magnitudes proportional to the probabilities. Critically, it rapidly adapts to changes in both stimulus timing and probability, an ability that global least-squares methods such as FORCE lack without explicit resets. During learning, the model self-organizes its readout weights into near-orthogonal subspaces for "what" and "when," showing that multiplexed encoding arises naturally from generic recurrent dynamics under local, error-gated modulation. These results challenge the view that "what" and "when" predictions require separate modules, suggesting instead that mixed selectivity within shared populations supports flexible predictive cognition. The model also predicts phase-specific neuromodulation and overlapping neural subspaces, offering a parsimonious alternative to hierarchical predictive-coding accounts.

We present the results of the NeurIPS 2023 Neural MMO Competition, which attracted over 200 participants and submissions. Participants trained goal-conditional policies that generalize to tasks, maps, and opponents never seen during training. The top solution achieved a score 4x higher than our baseline within 8 hours of training on a single 4090 GPU. We open-source everything relating to Neural MMO and the competition under the MIT license, including the policy weights and training code for our baseline and for the top submissions.

Reward-based finetuning is crucial for aligning language policies with intended behaviors (e.g., creativity and safety). A key challenge here is to develop steerable language models that trade-off multiple (conflicting) objectives in a flexible and efficient manner. This paper presents Conditioned Language Policy (CLP), a general framework for finetuning language models on multiple objectives. Building on techniques from multi-task training and parameter-efficient finetuning, CLP can learn steerable models that effectively trade-off conflicting objectives at inference time. Notably, this does not require training or maintaining multiple models to achieve different trade-offs between the objectives. Through an extensive set of experiments and ablations, we show that the CLP framework learns steerable models that outperform and Pareto-dominate the current state-of-the-art approaches for multi-objective finetuning.

Model-based deep reinforcement learning has achieved success in various domains that require high sample efficiencies, such as Go and robotics. However, there are some remaining issues, such as planning efficient explorations to learn more accurate dynamic models, evaluating the uncertainty of the learned models, and more rational utilization of models. To mitigate these issues, we present MEEE, a model-ensemble method that consists of optimistic exploration and weighted exploitation. During exploration, unlike prior methods directly selecting the optimal action that maximizes the expected accumulative return, our agent first generates a set of action candidates and then seeks out the optimal action that takes both expected return and future observation novelty into account. During exploitation, different discounted weights are assigned to imagined transition tuples according to their model uncertainty respectively, which will prevent model predictive error propagation in agent training. Experiments on several challenging continuous control benchmark tasks demonstrated that our approach outperforms other model-free and model-based state-of-the-art methods, especially in sample complexity.

Leveraging future observation modeling to facilitate action generation presents a promising avenue for enhancing the capabilities of Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models. However, existing approaches struggle to strike a balance between maintaining efficient, predictable future representations and preserving sufficient fine-grained information to guide precise action generation. To address this limitation, we propose WoG (World Guidance), a framework that maps future observations into compact conditions by injecting them into the action inference pipeline. The VLA is then trained to simultaneously predict these compressed conditions alongside future actions, thereby achieving effective world modeling within the condition space for action inference. We demonstrate that modeling and predicting this condition space not only facilitates fine-grained action generation but also exhibits superior generalization capabilities. Moreover, it learns effectively from substantial human manipulation videos. Extensive experiments across both simulation and real-world environments validate that our method significantly outperforms existing methods based on future prediction. Project page is available at: https://selen-suyue.github.io/WoGNet/

Pretrained video generation models provide strong priors for robot control, but existing unified world action models still struggle to decode reliable actions without substantial robot-specific training. We attribute this limitation to a structural mismatch: while video models capture how scenes evolve, action generation requires explicit reasoning about where to interact and the underlying manipulation intent. We introduce AIM, an intent-aware unified world action model that bridges this gap via an explicit spatial interface. Instead of decoding actions directly from future visual representations, AIM predicts an aligned spatial value map that encodes task-relevant interaction structure, enabling a control-oriented abstraction of future dynamics. Built on a pretrained video generation model, AIM jointly models future observations and value maps within a shared mixture-of-transformers architecture. It employs intent-causal attention to route future information to the action branch exclusively through the value representation. We further propose a self-distillation reinforcement learning stage that freezes the video and value branches and optimizes only the action head using dense rewards derived from projected value-map responses together with sparse task-level signals. To support training and evaluation, we construct a simulation dataset of 30K manipulation trajectories with synchronized multi-view observations, actions, and value-map annotations. Experiments on RoboTwin 2.0 benchmark show that AIM achieves a 94.0% average success rate, significantly outperforming prior unified world action baselines. Notably, the improvement is more pronounced in long-horizon and contact-sensitive manipulation tasks, demonstrating the effectiveness of explicit spatial-intent modeling as a bridge between visual world modeling and robot control.

The structure of causal language model training assumes that each token can be accurately predicted from the previous context. This contrasts with humans' natural writing and reasoning process, where goals are typically known before the exact argument or phrasings. While this mismatch has been well studied in the literature, the working assumption has been that architectural changes are needed to address this mismatch. We argue that rearranging and processing the training data sequences can allow models to more accurately imitate the true data-generating process, and does not require any other changes to the architecture or training infrastructure. We demonstrate that this technique, Trelawney, and the inference algorithms derived from it allow us to improve performance on several key benchmarks that span planning, algorithmic reasoning, and story generation tasks. Finally, our method naturally enables the generation of long-term goals at no additional cost. We investigate how using the model's goal-generation capability can further improve planning and reasoning. Additionally, we believe Trelawney could potentially open doors to new capabilities beyond the current language modeling paradigm.

Language-conditioned robotic manipulation represents a cutting-edge area of research, enabling seamless communication and cooperation between humans and robotic agents. This field focuses on teaching robotic systems to comprehend and execute instructions conveyed in natural language. To achieve this, the development of robust language understanding models capable of extracting actionable insights from textual input is essential. In this comprehensive survey, we systematically explore recent advancements in language-conditioned approaches within the context of robotic manipulation. We analyze these approaches based on their learning paradigms, which encompass reinforcement learning, imitation learning, and the integration of foundational models, such as large language models and vision-language models. Furthermore, we conduct an in-depth comparative analysis, considering aspects like semantic information extraction, environment & evaluation, auxiliary tasks, and task representation. Finally, we outline potential future research directions in the realm of language-conditioned learning for robotic manipulation, with the topic of generalization capabilities and safety issues. The GitHub repository of this paper can be found at https://github.com/hk-zh/language-conditioned-robot-manipulation-models

The ability to observe the effects of actions performed by others and to infer their intent, most likely goals, or course of action, is known as a plan or intention recognition cognitive capability and has long been one of the fundamental research challenges in AI. Deep learning has recently been making significant inroads on various pattern recognition problems, except for intention recognition. While extensively explored since the seventies, the problem remains unsolved for most interesting cases in various areas, ranging from natural language understanding to human behavior understanding based on video feeds. This paper compares symbolic inverse planning, one of the most investigated approaches to goal recognition, to deep learning using CNN and LTSM neural network architectures, on five synthetic benchmarks often used in the literature. The results show that the deep learning approach achieves better goal-prediction accuracy and timeliness than the symbolic cost-based plan recognizer in these domains. Although preliminary, these results point to interesting future research avenues.

The neural Hawkes process (Mei & Eisner, 2017) is a generative model of irregularly spaced sequences of discrete events. To handle complex domains with many event types, Mei et al. (2020a) further consider a setting in which each event in the sequence updates a deductive database of facts (via domain-specific pattern-matching rules); future events are then conditioned on the database contents. They show how to convert such a symbolic system into a neuro-symbolic continuous-time generative model, in which each database fact and the possible event has a time-varying embedding that is derived from its symbolic provenance. In this paper, we modify both models, replacing their recurrent LSTM-based architectures with flatter attention-based architectures (Vaswani et al., 2017), which are simpler and more parallelizable. This does not appear to hurt our accuracy, which is comparable to or better than that of the original models as well as (where applicable) previous attention-based methods (Zuo et al., 2020; Zhang et al., 2020a).

We propose a new approach for generative modeling based on training a neural network to be idempotent. An idempotent operator is one that can be applied sequentially without changing the result beyond the initial application, namely f(f(z))=f(z). The proposed model f is trained to map a source distribution (e.g, Gaussian noise) to a target distribution (e.g. realistic images) using the following objectives: (1) Instances from the target distribution should map to themselves, namely f(x)=x. We define the target manifold as the set of all instances that f maps to themselves. (2) Instances that form the source distribution should map onto the defined target manifold. This is achieved by optimizing the idempotence term, f(f(z))=f(z) which encourages the range of f(z) to be on the target manifold. Under ideal assumptions such a process provably converges to the target distribution. This strategy results in a model capable of generating an output in one step, maintaining a consistent latent space, while also allowing sequential applications for refinement. Additionally, we find that by processing inputs from both target and source distributions, the model adeptly projects corrupted or modified data back to the target manifold. This work is a first step towards a ``global projector'' that enables projecting any input into a target data distribution.

Understanding the continuous states of objects is essential for task learning and planning in the real world. However, most existing task learning benchmarks assume discrete(e.g., binary) object goal states, which poses challenges for the learning of complex tasks and transferring learned policy from simulated environments to the real world. Furthermore, state discretization limits a robot's ability to follow human instructions based on the grounding of actions and states. To tackle these challenges, we present ARNOLD, a benchmark that evaluates language-grounded task learning with continuous states in realistic 3D scenes. ARNOLD is comprised of 8 language-conditioned tasks that involve understanding object states and learning policies for continuous goals. To promote language-instructed learning, we provide expert demonstrations with template-generated language descriptions. We assess task performance by utilizing the latest language-conditioned policy learning models. Our results indicate that current models for language-conditioned manipulations continue to experience significant challenges in novel goal-state generalizations, scene generalizations, and object generalizations. These findings highlight the need to develop new algorithms that address this gap and underscore the potential for further research in this area. See our project page at: https://arnold-benchmark.github.io

AI agents are being increasingly deployed in dynamic, open-ended environments that require adapting to new information as it arrives. To efficiently measure this capability for realistic use-cases, we propose building grounded simulations that replay real-world events in the order they occurred. We build FutureSim, where agents forecast world events beyond their knowledge cutoff while interacting with a chronological replay of the world: real news articles arriving and questions resolving over the simulated period. We evaluate frontier agents in their native harness, testing their ability to predict world events over a three-month period from January to March 2026. FutureSim reveals a clear separation in their capabilities, with the best agent's accuracy being 25%, and many having worse Brier skill score than making no prediction at all. Through careful ablations, we show how FutureSim offers a realistic setting to study emerging research directions like long-horizon test-time adaptation, search, memory, and reasoning about uncertainty. Overall, we hope our benchmark design paves the way to measure AI progress on open-ended adaptation spanning long time-horizons in the real world.

Image and video generative models that are pre-trained on Internet-scale data can greatly increase the generalization capacity of robot learning systems. These models can function as high-level planners, generating intermediate subgoals for low-level goal-conditioned policies to reach. However, the performance of these systems can be greatly bottlenecked by the interface between generative models and low-level controllers. For example, generative models may predict photorealistic yet physically infeasible frames that confuse low-level policies. Low-level policies may also be sensitive to subtle visual artifacts in generated goal images. This paper addresses these two facets of generalization, providing an interface to effectively "glue together" language-conditioned image or video prediction models with low-level goal-conditioned policies. Our method, Generative Hierarchical Imitation Learning-Glue (GHIL-Glue), filters out subgoals that do not lead to task progress and improves the robustness of goal-conditioned policies to generated subgoals with harmful visual artifacts. We find in extensive experiments in both simulated and real environments that GHIL-Glue achieves a 25% improvement across several hierarchical models that leverage generative subgoals, achieving a new state-of-the-art on the CALVIN simulation benchmark for policies using observations from a single RGB camera. GHIL-Glue also outperforms other generalist robot policies across 3/4 language-conditioned manipulation tasks testing zero-shot generalization in physical experiments.

Large language models (LLMs) are often trained on extensive, temporally indiscriminate text corpora, reflecting the lack of datasets with temporal metadata. This approach is not aligned with the evolving nature of language. Conventional methods for creating temporally adapted language models often depend on further pre-training static models on time-specific data. This paper presents a new approach: a series of point-in-time LLMs called Time Machine GPT (TiMaGPT), specifically designed to be nonprognosticative. This ensures they remain uninformed about future factual information and linguistic changes. This strategy is beneficial for understanding language evolution and is of critical importance when applying models in dynamic contexts, such as time-series forecasting, where foresight of future information can prove problematic. We provide access to both the models and training datasets.

Current controllable diffusion models typically rely on fixed architectures that modify intermediate activations to inject guidance conditioned on a new modality. This approach uses a static conditioning strategy for a dynamic, multi-stage denoising process, limiting the model's ability to adapt its response as the generation evolves from coarse structure to fine detail. We introduce TC-LoRA (Temporally Modulated Conditional LoRA), a new paradigm that enables dynamic, context-aware control by conditioning the model's weights directly. Our framework uses a hypernetwork to generate LoRA adapters on-the-fly, tailoring weight modifications for the frozen backbone at each diffusion step based on time and the user's condition. This mechanism enables the model to learn and execute an explicit, adaptive strategy for applying conditional guidance throughout the entire generation process. Through experiments on various data domains, we demonstrate that this dynamic, parametric control significantly enhances generative fidelity and adherence to spatial conditions compared to static, activation-based methods. TC-LoRA establishes an alternative approach in which the model's conditioning strategy is modified through a deeper functional adaptation of its weights, allowing control to align with the dynamic demands of the task and generative stage.

We are interested in enabling visual planning for complex long-horizon tasks in the space of generated videos and language, leveraging recent advances in large generative models pretrained on Internet-scale data. To this end, we present video language planning (VLP), an algorithm that consists of a tree search procedure, where we train (i) vision-language models to serve as both policies and value functions, and (ii) text-to-video models as dynamics models. VLP takes as input a long-horizon task instruction and current image observation, and outputs a long video plan that provides detailed multimodal (video and language) specifications that describe how to complete the final task. VLP scales with increasing computation budget where more computation time results in improved video plans, and is able to synthesize long-horizon video plans across different robotics domains: from multi-object rearrangement, to multi-camera bi-arm dexterous manipulation. Generated video plans can be translated into real robot actions via goal-conditioned policies, conditioned on each intermediate frame of the generated video. Experiments show that VLP substantially improves long-horizon task success rates compared to prior methods on both simulated and real robots (across 3 hardware platforms).

Offline Goal-Conditioned Reinforcement Learning (GCRL) is tasked with learning to achieve multiple goals in an environment purely from offline datasets using sparse reward functions. Offline GCRL is pivotal for developing generalist agents capable of leveraging pre-existing datasets to learn diverse and reusable skills without hand-engineering reward functions. However, contemporary approaches to GCRL based on supervised learning and contrastive learning are often suboptimal in the offline setting. An alternative perspective on GCRL optimizes for occupancy matching, but necessitates learning a discriminator, which subsequently serves as a pseudo-reward for downstream RL. Inaccuracies in the learned discriminator can cascade, negatively influencing the resulting policy. We present a novel approach to GCRL under a new lens of mixture-distribution matching, leading to our discriminator-free method: SMORe. The key insight is combining the occupancy matching perspective of GCRL with a convex dual formulation to derive a learning objective that can better leverage suboptimal offline data. SMORe learns scores or unnormalized densities representing the importance of taking an action at a state for reaching a particular goal. SMORe is principled and our extensive experiments on the fully offline GCRL benchmark composed of robot manipulation and locomotion tasks, including high-dimensional observations, show that SMORe can outperform state-of-the-art baselines by a significant margin.

We introduce a framework that abstracts Reinforcement Learning (RL) as a sequence modeling problem. This allows us to draw upon the simplicity and scalability of the Transformer architecture, and associated advances in language modeling such as GPT-x and BERT. In particular, we present Decision Transformer, an architecture that casts the problem of RL as conditional sequence modeling. Unlike prior approaches to RL that fit value functions or compute policy gradients, Decision Transformer simply outputs the optimal actions by leveraging a causally masked Transformer. By conditioning an autoregressive model on the desired return (reward), past states, and actions, our Decision Transformer model can generate future actions that achieve the desired return. Despite its simplicity, Decision Transformer matches or exceeds the performance of state-of-the-art model-free offline RL baselines on Atari, OpenAI Gym, and Key-to-Door tasks.

Recent advances in multimodal agents have improved computer-use interaction and tool-usage, yet most existing systems remain reactive, optimizing actions in isolation without reasoning about future states or long-term goals. This limits planning coherence and prevents agents from reliably solving high-level, multi-step tasks. We introduce TraceR1, a two-stage reinforcement learning framework that explicitly trains anticipatory reasoning by forecasting short-horizon trajectories before execution. The first stage performs trajectory-level reinforcement learning with rewards that enforce global consistency across predicted action sequences. The second stage applies grounded reinforcement fine-tuning, using execution feedback from frozen tool agents to refine step-level accuracy and executability. TraceR1 is evaluated across seven benchmarks, covering online computer-use, offline computer-use benchmarks, and multimodal tool-use reasoning tasks, where it achieves substantial improvements in planning stability, execution robustness, and generalization over reactive and single-stage baselines. These results show that anticipatory trajectory reasoning is a key principle for building multimodal agents that can reason, plan, and act effectively in complex real-world environments.

Truly proactive AI systems must anticipate what we will do next. This foresight demands far richer information than the sparse signals we type into our prompts -- it demands reasoning over the entire context of what we see and do. We formalize this as next action prediction (NAP): given a sequence of a user's multimodal interactions with a computer (screenshots, clicks, sensor data), predict that user's next action. Progress on this task requires both new data and modeling approaches. To scale data, we annotate longitudinal, naturalistic computer use with vision-language models. We release an open-source pipeline for performing this labeling on private infrastructure, and label over 360K actions across one month of continuous phone usage from 20 users, amounting to 1,800 hours of screen time. We then introduce LongNAP, a user model that combines parametric and in-context learning to reason over long interaction histories. LongNAP is trained via policy gradient methods to generate user-specific reasoning traces given some context; retrieve relevant traces from a library of past traces; and then apply retrieved traces in-context to predict future actions. Using an LLM-as-judge evaluation metric (0-1 similarity to ground truth), LongNAP significantly outperforms supervised finetuning and prompted baselines on held-out data (by 79% and 39% respectively). Additionally, LongNAP generalizes to held out users when trained across individuals. The space of next actions a user might take at any moment is unbounded, spanning thousands of possible outcomes. Despite this, 17.1% of LongNAP's predicted trajectories are well-aligned with what a user does next (LLM-judge score geq 0.5). This rises to 26% when we filter to highly confident predictions. In sum, we argue that learning from the full context of user behavior to anticipate user needs is now a viable task with substantial opportunity.

Nowadays, time series forecasting is predominantly approached through the end-to-end training of deep learning architectures using error-based objectives. While this is effective at minimizing average loss, it encourages the encoder to discard informative yet extreme patterns. This results in smooth predictions and temporal representations that poorly capture salient dynamics. To address this issue, we propose ReGuider, a plug-in method that can be seamlessly integrated into any forecasting architecture. ReGuider leverages pretrained time series foundation models as semantic teachers. During training, the input sequence is processed together by the target forecasting model and the pretrained model. Rather than using the pretrained model's outputs directly, we extract its intermediate embeddings, which are rich in temporal and semantic information, and align them with the target model's encoder embeddings through representation-level supervision. This alignment process enables the encoder to learn more expressive temporal representations, thereby improving the accuracy of downstream forecasting. Extensive experimentation across diverse datasets and architectures demonstrates that our ReGuider consistently improves forecasting performance, confirming its effectiveness and versatility.

In this report we review memory-based meta-learning as a tool for building sample-efficient strategies that learn from past experience to adapt to any task within a target class. Our goal is to equip the reader with the conceptual foundations of this tool for building new, scalable agents that operate on broad domains. To do so, we present basic algorithmic templates for building near-optimal predictors and reinforcement learners which behave as if they had a probabilistic model that allowed them to efficiently exploit task structure. Furthermore, we recast memory-based meta-learning within a Bayesian framework, showing that the meta-learned strategies are near-optimal because they amortize Bayes-filtered data, where the adaptation is implemented in the memory dynamics as a state-machine of sufficient statistics. Essentially, memory-based meta-learning translates the hard problem of probabilistic sequential inference into a regression problem.

We present Palm, a solution to the Long-Term Action Anticipation (LTA) task utilizing vision-language and large language models. Given an input video with annotated action periods, the LTA task aims to predict possible future actions. We hypothesize that an optimal solution should capture the interdependency between past and future actions, and be able to infer future actions based on the structure and dependency encoded in the past actions. Large language models have demonstrated remarkable commonsense-based reasoning ability. Inspired by that, Palm chains an image captioning model and a large language model. It predicts future actions based on frame descriptions and action labels extracted from the input videos. Our method outperforms other participants in the EGO4D LTA challenge and achieves the best performance in terms of action prediction. Our code is available at https://github.com/DanDoge/Palm

The use of target networks is a popular approach for estimating value functions in deep Reinforcement Learning (RL). While effective, the target network remains a compromise solution that preserves stability at the cost of slowly moving targets, thus delaying learning. Conversely, using the online network as a bootstrapped target is intuitively appealing, albeit well-known to lead to unstable learning. In this work, we aim to obtain the best out of both worlds by introducing a novel update rule that computes the target using the MINimum estimate between the Target and Online network, giving rise to our method, MINTO. Through this simple, yet effective modification, we show that MINTO enables faster and stable value function learning, by mitigating the potential overestimation bias of using the online network for bootstrapping. Notably, MINTO can be seamlessly integrated into a wide range of value-based and actor-critic algorithms with a negligible cost. We evaluate MINTO extensively across diverse benchmarks, spanning online and offline RL, as well as discrete and continuous action spaces. Across all benchmarks, MINTO consistently improves performance, demonstrating its broad applicability and effectiveness.

In-context learning, the ability of large language models to perform tasks using only examples provided in the prompt, has recently been adapted for time series forecasting. This paradigm enables zero-shot prediction, where past values serve as context for forecasting future values, making powerful forecasting tools accessible to non-experts and increasing the performance when training data are scarce. Most existing zero-shot forecasting approaches rely on transformer architectures, which, despite their success in language, often fall short of expectations in time series forecasting, where recurrent models like LSTMs frequently have the edge. Conversely, while LSTMs are well-suited for time series modeling due to their state-tracking capabilities, they lack strong in-context learning abilities. We introduce TiRex that closes this gap by leveraging xLSTM, an enhanced LSTM with competitive in-context learning skills. Unlike transformers, state-space models, or parallelizable RNNs such as RWKV, TiRex retains state-tracking, a critical property for long-horizon forecasting. To further facilitate its state-tracking ability, we propose a training-time masking strategy called CPM. TiRex sets a new state of the art in zero-shot time series forecasting on the HuggingFace benchmarks GiftEval and Chronos-ZS, outperforming significantly larger models including TabPFN-TS (Prior Labs), Chronos Bolt (Amazon), TimesFM (Google), and Moirai (Salesforce) across both short- and long-term forecasts.

We present a neural framework for learning conditional optimal transport (OT) maps between probability distributions. Our approach introduces a conditioning mechanism capable of processing both categorical and continuous conditioning variables simultaneously. At the core of our method lies a hypernetwork that generates transport layer parameters based on these inputs, creating adaptive mappings that outperform simpler conditioning methods. Comprehensive ablation studies demonstrate the superior performance of our method over baseline configurations. Furthermore, we showcase an application to global sensitivity analysis, offering high performance in computing OT-based sensitivity indices. This work advances the state-of-the-art in conditional optimal transport, enabling broader application of optimal transport principles to complex, high-dimensional domains such as generative modeling and black-box model explainability.

Goal-conditioned policies for robotic navigation can be trained on large, unannotated datasets, providing for good generalization to real-world settings. However, particularly in vision-based settings where specifying goals requires an image, this makes for an unnatural interface. Language provides a more convenient modality for communication with robots, but contemporary methods typically require expensive supervision, in the form of trajectories annotated with language descriptions. We present a system, LM-Nav, for robotic navigation that enjoys the benefits of training on unannotated large datasets of trajectories, while still providing a high-level interface to the user. Instead of utilizing a labeled instruction following dataset, we show that such a system can be constructed entirely out of pre-trained models for navigation (ViNG), image-language association (CLIP), and language modeling (GPT-3), without requiring any fine-tuning or language-annotated robot data. We instantiate LM-Nav on a real-world mobile robot and demonstrate long-horizon navigation through complex, outdoor environments from natural language instructions. For videos of our experiments, code release, and an interactive Colab notebook that runs in your browser, please check out our project page https://sites.google.com/view/lmnav

Transformer architectures have revolutionized artificial intelligence (AI) through their attention mechanisms, yet the computational principles underlying their success remain opaque. We present a novel theoretical framework that reinterprets the core computation of attention as Pavlovian conditioning. Our model finds a direct mathematical analogue in linear attention, which simplifies the analysis of the underlying associative process. We demonstrate that attention's queries, keys, and values can be mapped to the three elements of classical conditioning: test stimuli that probe associations, conditional stimuli (CS) that serve as retrieval cues, and unconditional stimuli (US) that contain response information. Through this lens, we suggest that each attention operation constructs a transient associative memory via a Hebbian rule, where CS-US pairs form dynamic associations that test stimuli can later retrieve. Our framework yields several theoretical insights grounded in this linearized model: (1) a capacity theorem showing that attention heads can store O(d_k) associations before interference degrades retrieval; (2) an error propagation analysis revealing fundamental architectural trade-offs of balancing model depth, width, and head redundancy to maintain reliability; and (3) an understanding of how biologically plausible learning rules could enhance transformer architectures. By establishing this deep connection, we suggest that the success of modern AI may stem not from architectural novelty alone, but from implementing computational principles that biology optimized over millions of years of evolution.

In automated planning, recognising the goal of an agent from a trace of observations is an important task with many applications. The state-of-the-art approaches to goal recognition rely on the application of planning techniques, which requires a model of the domain actions and of the initial domain state (written, e.g., in PDDL). We study an alternative approach where goal recognition is formulated as a classification task addressed by machine learning. Our approach, called GRNet, is primarily aimed at making goal recognition more accurate as well as faster by learning how to solve it in a given domain. Given a planning domain specified by a set of propositions and a set of action names, the goal classification instances in the domain are solved by a Recurrent Neural Network (RNN). A run of the RNN processes a trace of observed actions to compute how likely it is that each domain proposition is part of the agent's goal, for the problem instance under considerations. These predictions are then aggregated to choose one of the candidate goals. The only information required as input of the trained RNN is a trace of action labels, each one indicating just the name of an observed action. An experimental analysis confirms that \our achieves good performance in terms of both goal classification accuracy and runtime, obtaining better performance w.r.t. a state-of-the-art goal recognition system over the considered benchmarks.

We introduce PlausiVL, a large video-language model for anticipating action sequences that are plausible in the real-world. While significant efforts have been made towards anticipating future actions, prior approaches do not take into account the aspect of plausibility in an action sequence. To address this limitation, we explore the generative capability of a large video-language model in our work and further, develop the understanding of plausibility in an action sequence by introducing two objective functions, a counterfactual-based plausible action sequence learning loss and a long-horizon action repetition loss. We utilize temporal logical constraints as well as verb-noun action pair logical constraints to create implausible/counterfactual action sequences and use them to train the model with plausible action sequence learning loss. This loss helps the model to differentiate between plausible and not plausible action sequences and also helps the model to learn implicit temporal cues crucial for the task of action anticipation. The long-horizon action repetition loss puts a higher penalty on the actions that are more prone to repetition over a longer temporal window. With this penalization, the model is able to generate diverse, plausible action sequences. We evaluate our approach on two large-scale datasets, Ego4D and EPIC-Kitchens-100, and show improvements on the task of action anticipation.

Do transformers "think ahead" during inference at a given position? It is known transformers prepare information in the hidden states of the forward pass at t that is then used in future forward passes t+tau. We posit two explanations for this phenomenon: pre-caching, in which off-diagonal gradient terms present in training result in the model computing features at t irrelevant to the present inference task but useful for the future, and breadcrumbs, in which features most relevant to time step t are already the same as those that would most benefit inference at time t+tau. We test these hypotheses by training language models without propagating gradients to past timesteps, a scheme we formalize as myopic training. In a synthetic data setting, we find clear evidence for pre-caching. In the autoregressive language modeling setting, our experiments are more suggestive of the breadcrumbs hypothesis.

A long-standing goal in AI is to build agents that can solve a variety of tasks across different environments, including previously unseen ones. Two dominant approaches tackle this challenge: (i) reinforcement learning (RL), which learns policies through trial and error, and (ii) optimal control, which plans actions using a learned or known dynamics model. However, their relative strengths and weaknesses remain underexplored in the setting where agents must learn from offline trajectories without reward annotations. In this work, we systematically analyze the performance of different RL and control-based methods under datasets of varying quality. On the RL side, we consider goal-conditioned and zero-shot approaches. On the control side, we train a latent dynamics model using the Joint Embedding Predictive Architecture (JEPA) and use it for planning. We study how dataset properties-such as data diversity, trajectory quality, and environment variability-affect the performance of these approaches. Our results show that model-free RL excels when abundant, high-quality data is available, while model-based planning excels in generalization to novel environment layouts, trajectory stitching, and data-efficiency. Notably, planning with a latent dynamics model emerges as a promising approach for zero-shot generalization from suboptimal data.

We present EB-JEPA, an open-source library for learning representations and world models using Joint-Embedding Predictive Architectures (JEPAs). JEPAs learn to predict in representation space rather than pixel space, avoiding the pitfalls of generative modeling while capturing semantically meaningful features suitable for downstream tasks. Our library provides modular, self-contained implementations that illustrate how representation learning techniques developed for image-level self-supervised learning can transfer to video, where temporal dynamics add complexity, and ultimately to action-conditioned world models, where the model must additionally learn to predict the effects of control inputs. Each example is designed for single-GPU training within a few hours, making energy-based self-supervised learning accessible for research and education. We provide ablations of JEA components on CIFAR-10. Probing these representations yields 91% accuracy, indicating that the model learns useful features. Extending to video, we include a multi-step prediction example on Moving MNIST that demonstrates how the same principles scale to temporal modeling. Finally, we show how these representations can drive action-conditioned world models, achieving a 97% planning success rate on the Two Rooms navigation task. Comprehensive ablations reveal the critical importance of each regularization component for preventing representation collapse. Code is available at https://github.com/facebookresearch/eb_jepa.

The ability to predict upcoming events has been hypothesized to comprise a key aspect of natural and machine cognition. This is supported by trends in deep reinforcement learning (RL), where self-supervised auxiliary objectives such as prediction are widely used to support representation learning and improve task performance. Here, we study the effects predictive auxiliary objectives have on representation learning across different modules of an RL system and how these mimic representational changes observed in the brain. We find that predictive objectives improve and stabilize learning particularly in resource-limited architectures, and we identify settings where longer predictive horizons better support representational transfer. Furthermore, we find that representational changes in this RL system bear a striking resemblance to changes in neural activity observed in the brain across various experiments. Specifically, we draw a connection between the auxiliary predictive model of the RL system and hippocampus, an area thought to learn a predictive model to support memory-guided behavior. We also connect the encoder network and the value learning network of the RL system to visual cortex and striatum in the brain, respectively. This work demonstrates how representation learning in deep RL systems can provide an interpretable framework for modeling multi-region interactions in the brain. The deep RL perspective taken here also suggests an additional role of the hippocampus in the brain -- that of an auxiliary learning system that benefits representation learning in other regions.

A modern paradigm for generalization in machine learning and AI consists of pre-training a task-agnostic foundation model, generally obtained using self-supervised and multimodal contrastive learning. The resulting representations can be used for prediction on a downstream task for which no labeled data is available. We present a theoretical framework to better understand this approach, called zero-shot prediction. We identify the target quantities that zero-shot prediction aims to learn, or learns in passing, and the key conditional independence relationships that enable its generalization ability.

Recent advances in reasoning with large language models (LLMs) have shown the effectiveness of Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) for generating high-quality intermediate trajectories, particularly in math and symbolic domains. Inspired by this, we explore how MCTS-derived trajectories, traditionally used for training value or reward models, can be repurposed to improve policy optimization in preference-based reinforcement learning (RL). Specifically, we focus on Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO), a recent algorithm that enables preference-consistent policy learning without value networks. We propose a staged GRPO training paradigm where completions are derived from partially revealed MCTS rollouts, introducing a novel tree-structured setting for advantage estimation. This leads to a rich class of prefix-conditioned reward signals, which we analyze theoretically and empirically. Our initial results indicate that while structured advantage estimation can stabilize updates and better reflect compositional reasoning quality, challenges such as advantage saturation and reward signal collapse remain. We propose heuristic and statistical solutions to mitigate these issues and discuss open challenges for learning under staged or tree-like reward structures.

Large language models (LLMs) excel at processing information reactively but lack the ability to systemically explore hypothetical futures. They cannot ask, "what if we take this action? how will it affect the final outcome" and forecast its potential consequences before acting. This critical gap limits their utility in dynamic, high-stakes scenarios like strategic planning, risk assessment, and real-time decision making. To bridge this gap, we propose WiA-LLM, a new paradigm that equips LLMs with proactive thinking capabilities. Our approach integrates What-If Analysis (WIA), a systematic approach for evaluating hypothetical scenarios by changing input variables. By leveraging environmental feedback via reinforcement learning, WiA-LLM moves beyond reactive thinking. It dynamically simulates the outcomes of each potential action, enabling the model to anticipate future states rather than merely react to the present conditions. We validate WiA-LLM in Honor of Kings (HoK), a complex multiplayer game environment characterized by rapid state changes and intricate interactions. The game's real-time state changes require precise multi-step consequence prediction, making it an ideal testbed for our approach. Experimental results demonstrate WiA-LLM achieves a remarkable 74.2% accuracy in forecasting game-state changes (up to two times gain over baselines). The model shows particularly significant gains in high-difficulty scenarios where accurate foresight is critical. To our knowledge, this is the first work to formally explore and integrate what-if analysis capabilities within LLMs. WiA-LLM represents a fundamental advance toward proactive reasoning in LLMs, providing a scalable framework for robust decision-making in dynamic environments with broad implications for strategic applications.

In this work, we address the challenging problem of long-horizon goal-reaching policy learning from non-expert, action-free observation data. Unlike fully labeled expert data, our data is more accessible and avoids the costly process of action labeling. Additionally, compared to online learning, which often involves aimless exploration, our data provides useful guidance for more efficient exploration. To achieve our goal, we propose a novel subgoal guidance learning strategy. The motivation behind this strategy is that long-horizon goals offer limited guidance for efficient exploration and accurate state transition. We develop a diffusion strategy-based high-level policy to generate reasonable subgoals as waypoints, preferring states that more easily lead to the final goal. Additionally, we learn state-goal value functions to encourage efficient subgoal reaching. These two components naturally integrate into the off-policy actor-critic framework, enabling efficient goal attainment through informative exploration. We evaluate our method on complex robotic navigation and manipulation tasks, demonstrating a significant performance advantage over existing methods. Our ablation study further shows that our method is robust to observation data with various corruptions.

While reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) significantly enhances LLM reasoning by optimizing the conditional distribution P(y|x), its potential is fundamentally bounded by the base model's existing output distribution. Optimizing the marginal distribution P(y) in the Pre-train Space addresses this bottleneck by encoding reasoning ability and preserving broad exploration capacity. Yet, conventional pre-training relies on static corpora for passive learning, leading to a distribution shift that hinders targeted reasoning enhancement. In this paper, we introduce PreRL (Pre-train Space RL), which applies reward-driven online updates directly to P(y). We theoretically and empirically validate the strong gradient alignment between log P(y) and log P(y|x), establishing PreRL as a viable surrogate for standard RL. Furthermore, we uncover a critical mechanism: Negative Sample Reinforcement (NSR) within PreRL serves as an exceptionally effective driver for reasoning. NSR-PreRL rapidly prunes incorrect reasoning spaces while stimulating endogenous reflective behaviors, increasing transition and reflection thoughts by 14.89x and 6.54x, respectively. Leveraging these insights, we propose Dual Space RL (DSRL), a Policy Reincarnation strategy that initializes models with NSR-PreRL to expand the reasoning horizon before transitioning to standard RL for fine-grained optimization. Extensive experiments demonstrate that DSRL consistently outperforms strong baselines, proving that pre-train space pruning effectively steers the policy toward a refined correct reasoning subspace.

Recent unified models for joint understanding and generation have significantly advanced visual generation capabilities. However, their focus on conventional tasks like text-to-video generation has left the temporal reasoning potential of unified models largely underexplored. To address this gap, we introduce Next Scene Prediction (NSP), a new task that pushes unified video models toward temporal and causal reasoning. Unlike text-to-video generation, NSP requires predicting plausible futures from preceding context, demanding deeper understanding and reasoning. To tackle this task, we propose a unified framework combining Qwen-VL for comprehension and LTX for synthesis, bridged by a latent query embedding and a connector module. This model is trained in three stages on our newly curated, large-scale NSP dataset: text-to-video pre-training, supervised fine-tuning, and reinforcement learning (via GRPO) with our proposed causal consistency reward. Experiments demonstrate our model achieves state-of-the-art performance on our benchmark, advancing the capability of generalist multimodal systems to anticipate what happens next.

We propose a new policy representation based on score-based diffusion models (SDMs). We apply our new policy representation in the domain of Goal-Conditioned Imitation Learning (GCIL) to learn general-purpose goal-specified policies from large uncurated datasets without rewards. Our new goal-conditioned policy architecture "BEhavior generation with ScOre-based Diffusion Policies" (BESO) leverages a generative, score-based diffusion model as its policy. BESO decouples the learning of the score model from the inference sampling process, and, hence allows for fast sampling strategies to generate goal-specified behavior in just 3 denoising steps, compared to 30+ steps of other diffusion based policies. Furthermore, BESO is highly expressive and can effectively capture multi-modality present in the solution space of the play data. Unlike previous methods such as Latent Plans or C-Bet, BESO does not rely on complex hierarchical policies or additional clustering for effective goal-conditioned behavior learning. Finally, we show how BESO can even be used to learn a goal-independent policy from play-data using classifier-free guidance. To the best of our knowledge this is the first work that a) represents a behavior policy based on such a decoupled SDM b) learns an SDM based policy in the domain of GCIL and c) provides a way to simultaneously learn a goal-dependent and a goal-independent policy from play-data. We evaluate BESO through detailed simulation and show that it consistently outperforms several state-of-the-art goal-conditioned imitation learning methods on challenging benchmarks. We additionally provide extensive ablation studies and experiments to demonstrate the effectiveness of our method for goal-conditioned behavior generation. Demonstrations and Code are available at https://intuitive-robots.github.io/beso-website/

Offline goal-conditioned RL (GCRL) offers a way to train general-purpose agents from fully offline datasets. In addition to being conservative within the dataset, the generalization ability to achieve unseen goals is another fundamental challenge for offline GCRL. However, to the best of our knowledge, this problem has not been well studied yet. In this paper, we study out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization of offline GCRL both theoretically and empirically to identify factors that are important. In a number of experiments, we observe that weighted imitation learning enjoys better generalization than pessimism-based offline RL method. Based on this insight, we derive a theory for OOD generalization, which characterizes several important design choices. We then propose a new offline GCRL method, Generalizable Offline goAl-condiTioned RL (GOAT), by combining the findings from our theoretical and empirical studies. On a new benchmark containing 9 independent identically distributed (IID) tasks and 17 OOD tasks, GOAT outperforms current state-of-the-art methods by a large margin.

Recent advancements have shown that reinforcement learning (RL) can substantially improve the reasoning abilities of large language models (LLMs). The effectiveness of such RL training, however, depends critically on the exploration space defined by the pre-trained model's token-output distribution. In this paper, we revisit the standard cross-entropy loss, interpreting it as a specific instance of policy gradient optimization applied within a single-step episode. To systematically study how the pre-trained distribution shapes the exploration potential for subsequent RL, we propose a generalized pre-training objective that adapts on-policy RL principles to supervised learning. By framing next-token prediction as a stochastic decision process, we introduce a reward-shaping strategy that explicitly balances diversity and precision. Our method employs a positive reward scaling factor to control probability concentration on ground-truth tokens and a rank-aware mechanism that treats high-ranking and low-ranking negative tokens asymmetrically. This allows us to reshape the pre-trained token-output distribution and investigate how to provide a more favorable exploration space for RL, ultimately enhancing end-to-end reasoning performance. Contrary to the intuition that higher distribution entropy facilitates effective exploration, we find that imposing a precision-oriented prior yields a superior exploration space for RL.

Surgical future prediction, driven by real-time AI analysis of surgical video, is critical for operating room safety and efficiency. It provides actionable insights into upcoming events, their timing, and risks-enabling better resource allocation, timely instrument readiness, and early warnings for complications (e.g., bleeding, bile duct injury). Despite this need, current surgical AI research focuses on understanding what is happening rather than predicting future events. Existing methods target specific tasks in isolation, lacking unified approaches that span both short-term (action triplets, events) and long-term horizons (remaining surgery duration, phase transitions). These methods rely on coarse-grained supervision while fine-grained surgical action triplets and steps remain underexplored. Furthermore, methods based only on future feature prediction struggle to generalize across different surgical contexts and procedures. We address these limits by reframing surgical future prediction as state-change learning. Rather than forecasting raw observations, our approach classifies state transitions between current and future timesteps. We introduce SurgFUTR, implementing this through a teacher-student architecture. Video clips are compressed into state representations via Sinkhorn-Knopp clustering; the teacher network learns from both current and future clips, while the student network predicts future states from current videos alone, guided by our Action Dynamics (ActDyn) module. We establish SFPBench with five prediction tasks spanning short-term (triplets, events) and long-term (remaining surgery duration, phase and step transitions) horizons. Experiments across four datasets and three procedures show consistent improvements. Cross-procedure transfer validates generalizability.