Daily Papers

Efficient decoding to estimate error locations from outcomes of syndrome measurement is the prerequisite for quantum error correction. Decoding in presence of circuit-level noise including measurement errors should be considered in case of actual quantum computing devices. In this work, we develop a decoder for circuit-level noise that solves the error estimation problems as Ising-type optimization problems. We confirm that the threshold theorem in the surface code under the circuitlevel noise is reproduced with an error threshold of approximately 0.4%. We also demonstrate the advantage of the decoder through which the Y error detection rate can be improved compared with other matching-based decoders. Our results reveal that a lower logical error rate can be obtained using our algorithm compared with that of the minimum-weight perfect matching algorithm.

Quantum error mitigation (QEM) is critical in reducing the impact of noise in the pre-fault-tolerant era, and is expected to complement error correction in fault-tolerant quantum computing (FTQC). In this paper, we propose a novel QEM approach, Q-Cluster, that uses unsupervised learning (clustering) to reshape the measured bit-string distribution. Our approach starts with a simplified bit-flip noise model. It first performs clustering on noisy measurement results, i.e., bit-strings, based on the Hamming distance. The centroid of each cluster is calculated using a qubit-wise majority vote. Next, the noisy distribution is adjusted with the clustering outcomes and the bit-flip error rates using Bayesian inference. Our simulation results show that Q-Cluster can mitigate high noise rates (up to 40% per qubit) with the simple bit-flip noise model. However, real quantum computers do not fit such a simple noise model. To address the problem, we (a) apply Pauli twirling to tailor the complex noise channels to Pauli errors, and (b) employ a machine learning model, ExtraTrees regressor, to estimate an effective bit-flip error rate using a feature vector consisting of machine calibration data (gate & measurement error rates), circuit features (number of qubits, numbers of different types of gates, etc.) and the shape of the noisy distribution (entropy). Our experimental results show that our proposed Q-Cluster scheme improves the fidelity by a factor of 1.46x, on average, compared to the unmitigated output distribution, for a set of low-entropy benchmarks on five different IBM quantum machines. Our approach outperforms the state-of-art QEM approaches M3 [24], Hammer [35], and QBEEP [33] by 1.29x, 1.47x, and 2.65x, respectively.

Many political science theories relate to latent variables, but such quantities cannot be observed directly and must instead be estimated from data with inherent uncertainty. In regression models, when a variable is measured with error, its slope coefficient is known to be biased toward zero. We show how measurement error interacts with unique aspects of latent variable estimation, identification restrictions in particular, and demonstrate how common error adjustment strategies can worsen bias. We introduce a method for adjusting coefficients on latent predictors, which reduces bias and typically increases the magnitude of estimated coefficients, often dramatically. We illustrate these dynamics using several different estimation strategies for the latent predictors. Corrected estimates using our proposed method show stronger relationships -- sometimes up to 50% larger -- than those from naive regression. Our findings highlight the importance of considering measurement error in latent predictors and the inadequacy of many commonly used approaches for dealing with this issue.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are quickly becoming ubiquitous, but the implications for social science research are not yet well understood. This paper asks whether LLMs can help us analyse large-N qualitative data from open-ended interviews, with an application to transcripts of interviews with Rohingya refugees in Cox's Bazaar, Bangladesh. We find that a great deal of caution is needed in using LLMs to annotate text as there is a risk of introducing biases that can lead to misleading inferences. We here mean bias in the technical sense, that the errors that LLMs make in annotating interview transcripts are not random with respect to the characteristics of the interview subjects. Training simpler supervised models on high-quality human annotations with flexible coding leads to less measurement error and bias than LLM annotations. Therefore, given that some high quality annotations are necessary in order to asses whether an LLM introduces bias, we argue that it is probably preferable to train a bespoke model on these annotations than it is to use an LLM for annotation.

We use tools from geometric statistics to analyze the usual estimation procedure of a template shape. This applies to shapes from landmarks, curves, surfaces, images etc. We demonstrate the asymptotic bias of the template shape estimation using the stratified geometry of the shape space. We give a Taylor expansion of the bias with respect to a parameter sigma describing the measurement error on the data. We propose two bootstrap procedures that quantify the bias and correct it, if needed. They are applicable for any type of shape data. We give a rule of thumb to provide intuition on whether the bias has to be corrected. This exhibits the parameters that control the bias' magnitude. We illustrate our results on simulated and real shape data.

Left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) results from chronic remodeling caused by a broad range of systemic and cardiovascular disease including hypertension, aortic stenosis, hypertrophic cardiomyopathy, and cardiac amyloidosis. Early detection and characterization of LVH can significantly impact patient care but is limited by under-recognition of hypertrophy, measurement error and variability, and difficulty differentiating etiologies of LVH. To overcome this challenge, we present EchoNet-LVH - a deep learning workflow that automatically quantifies ventricular hypertrophy with precision equal to human experts and predicts etiology of LVH. Trained on 28,201 echocardiogram videos, our model accurately measures intraventricular wall thickness (mean absolute error [MAE] 1.4mm, 95% CI 1.2-1.5mm), left ventricular diameter (MAE 2.4mm, 95% CI 2.2-2.6mm), and posterior wall thickness (MAE 1.2mm, 95% CI 1.1-1.3mm) and classifies cardiac amyloidosis (area under the curve of 0.83) and hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (AUC 0.98) from other etiologies of LVH. In external datasets from independent domestic and international healthcare systems, EchoNet-LVH accurately quantified ventricular parameters (R2 of 0.96 and 0.90 respectively) and detected cardiac amyloidosis (AUC 0.79) and hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (AUC 0.89) on the domestic external validation site. Leveraging measurements across multiple heart beats, our model can more accurately identify subtle changes in LV geometry and its causal etiologies. Compared to human experts, EchoNet-LVH is fully automated, allowing for reproducible, precise measurements, and lays the foundation for precision diagnosis of cardiac hypertrophy. As a resource to promote further innovation, we also make publicly available a large dataset of 23,212 annotated echocardiogram videos.

As autonomous code agents move toward end-to-end software development, evaluating their practical autonomy becomes critical. Current benchmarks hide friction by testing agents in pre-configured environments, and their static evaluation pipelines frequently fail when parsing fully autonomous trajectories. We address these limitations with SWE-Cycle, a benchmark of 489 rigorously filtered instances. SWE-Cycle evaluates agents across three isolated tasks, including environment reconstruction, code implementation, and verification test generation, as well as an end-to-end FullCycle task that integrates all three. The FullCycle task requires agents to work autonomously in a bare repository without human scaffolding. To reliably assess these complex execution paths, we developed SWE-Judge. By combining static code review with dynamic testing, this execution-capable evaluation agent accurately verifies functional correctness and eliminates the systematic measurement errors of traditional static parsers. We evaluate code agents powered by six state-of-the-art LLMs across these four tasks. The results reveal a sharp drop in solve rates when transitioning from isolated tasks to FullCycle execution, exposing critical bottlenecks in handling cross-phase dependencies and maintaining code quality. Together, SWE-Cycle and SWE-Judge provide a comprehensive framework for accurately measuring the end-to-end capabilities of autonomous software agents.

Estimating the causal effects of interventions is crucial to policy and decision-making, yet outcome data are often missing or subject to non-standard measurement error. While ground-truth outcomes can sometimes be obtained through costly data annotation or follow-up, budget constraints typically allow only a fraction of the dataset to be labeled. We address this challenge by optimizing which data points should be sampled for outcome information in order to improve efficiency in average treatment effect estimation with missing outcomes. We derive a closed-form solution for the optimal batch sampling probability by minimizing the asymptotic variance of a doubly robust estimator for causal inference with missing outcomes. Motivated by our street outreach partners, we extend the framework to costly annotations of unstructured data, such as text or images in healthcare and social services. Across simulated and real-world datasets, including one of outreach interventions in homelessness services, our approach achieves substantially lower mean-squared error and recovers the AIPW estimate with fewer labels than existing baselines. In practice, we show that our method can match confidence intervals obtained with 361 random samples using only 90 optimized samples - saving 75% of the labeling budget.

In this work, we aim to estimate the stellar parameters of the primary (Aa) by performing asteroseismic analysis on its period-spacing pattern. We use the C-3PO neural network to perform asteroseismic modelling of the g-mode period-spacing pattern of Aa, discussing the interplay of this information with external constraints from spectroscopy (T_{rm eff} and log(g)) and eclipse modelling (R). To estimate the level of uncertainty due to different frequency extraction and pattern identification processes, we consider four different variations on the period-spacing patterns. To better understand the correlations between and the uncertainty structure of our parameter estimates, we also employed a classical, parameter-based MCMC grid search on four different stellar grids. The best-fitting, externally constrained model to the period-spacing pattern arrives at estimates of the stellar properties for Aa of: M=1.51 pm 0.05 M_odot, X_c =0.43 pm 0.04, R=1.66 pm 0.1 R_odot, f_{rm ov}=0.010, Omega_c=1.58 pm 0.01 d^{-1} with rigid rotation to within the measurement errors, log(T_{rm eff})=3.856 pm 0.008 dex, log(g)=4.18 pm 0.04 dex, and log(L)=0.809 pm 0.005 dex, which agree well with previous measurements from eclipse modelling, spectroscopy, and the Gaia DR3 luminosity. We find that the near-core properties of the best-fitting asteroseismic models are consistent with external constraints from eclipse modelling and spectroscopy. Aa appears to be a typical example of a gamma Dor star, fitting well within existing populations. We find that Aa is quasi-rigidly rotating to within the uncertainties, and note that the asteroseismic age estimate for Aa (1100 pm 100 Myr) is considerably older than the young (35 Myr) age implied by previous isochrone fits to the B binary in the literature. Our MCMC parameter-based grid-search agrees well with our pattern-modelling approach.

Generic Event Boundary Detection (GEBD) aims to interpret long-form videos through the lens of human perception. However, current GEBD methods require processing complete video frames to make predictions, unlike humans processing data online and in real-time. To bridge this gap, we introduce a new task, Online Generic Event Boundary Detection (On-GEBD), aiming to detect boundaries of generic events immediately in streaming videos. This task faces unique challenges of identifying subtle, taxonomy-free event changes in real-time, without the access to future frames. To tackle these challenges, we propose a novel On-GEBD framework, Estimator, inspired by Event Segmentation Theory (EST) which explains how humans segment ongoing activity into events by leveraging the discrepancies between predicted and actual information. Our framework consists of two key components: the Consistent Event Anticipator (CEA), and the Online Boundary Discriminator (OBD). Specifically, the CEA generates a prediction of the future frame reflecting current event dynamics based solely on prior frames. Then, the OBD measures the prediction error and adaptively adjusts the threshold using statistical tests on past errors to capture diverse, subtle event transitions. Experimental results demonstrate that Estimator outperforms all baselines adapted from recent online video understanding models and achieves performance comparable to prior offline-GEBD methods on the Kinetics-GEBD and TAPOS datasets.

Predicting depth is an essential component in understanding the 3D geometry of a scene. While for stereo images local correspondence suffices for estimation, finding depth relations from a single image is less straightforward, requiring integration of both global and local information from various cues. Moreover, the task is inherently ambiguous, with a large source of uncertainty coming from the overall scale. In this paper, we present a new method that addresses this task by employing two deep network stacks: one that makes a coarse global prediction based on the entire image, and another that refines this prediction locally. We also apply a scale-invariant error to help measure depth relations rather than scale. By leveraging the raw datasets as large sources of training data, our method achieves state-of-the-art results on both NYU Depth and KITTI, and matches detailed depth boundaries without the need for superpixelation.

In phase-shifting profilometry (PSP), any motion during the acquisition of fringe patterns can introduce errors because it assumes both the object and measurement system are stationary. Therefore, we propose a method to pixel-wise reduce the errors when the measurement system is in motion due to a motorized linear stage. The proposed method introduces motion-induced error reduction algorithm, which leverages the motor's encoder and pinhole model of the camera and projector. 3D shape measurement is possible with only three fringe patterns by applying geometric constraints of the digital fringe projection system. We address the mismatch problem due to the motion-induced camera pixel disparities and reduce phase-shift errors. These processes are easy to implement and require low computational cost. Experimental results demonstrate that the presented method effectively reduces the errors even in non-uniform motion.

We derive a new constraint on the expansion history of the Universe by applying the cosmic chronometers method, studying the age evolution of high-redshift galaxies with a full-spectral-fitting approach. We select a sample of 39 massive (log(M/M_odot)>10.8) and passive (log(sSFR/yr^{-1})<-11) galaxies from the data release 4 of the VANDELS survey at 1<z<1.5, combining different selection criteria to minimize the potential contamination by star-forming outliers. We perform full-spectral-fitting jointly on spectra and photometry of our sources with the code BAGPIPES, without any cosmological assumption on the age of the population. The derived physical properties of the selected galaxies are characteristic of a passive population, with short star formation timescales (<τ>=0.28pm0.02 Gyr), low dust extinction (<A_{V,dust}>=0.43pm0.02 mag), and sub-solar metallicities (<Z/Z_{odot}>=0.44pm0.01). The ages show a decreasing trend with redshift compatible with a standard cosmological model, even if no cosmological constraint is assumed in the fit, and a clear mass-downsizing pattern. Testing the impact of the star formation history on the results, we find only a maximum 2\% fluctuation in age and metallicity. By fitting the median age-redshift relation with a flat ΛCDM model and assuming a Gaussian prior on Ω_{M,0}= 0.3pm0.02 from late-Universe probes, we obtain H_0=67_{-15}^{+14}:km:s^{-1}:Mpc^{-1}. In the end, we derive a new estimate of the Hubble parameter with the cosmic chronometers method, H(z=1.26)=135pm65:km:s^{-1}:Mpc^{-1} including statistical and systematic errors. While the error budget is currently dominated by the scarcity of the sample, this work proves the potential strength of the cosmic chronometers approach up to z>1, especially in view of incoming large spectroscopic surveys like Euclid. (abridged)

Cardinality-estimation (CE) research ranks estimators by q-error, yet it is well known that q-error is an imperfect proxy for query-plan quality. We give a measurement-driven account of when it is a good proxy and when it is not, and why. Modeling plan selection as an argmin over a piecewise-linear cost landscape, we find that plan regret (the cost of the chosen plan relative to the optimal, under true cardinalities) is governed by plan-cost geometry in a regime-dependent way. (i) For small errors, a true-point condition number kappa predicts regret and out-predicts q-error; its predictive power decays to zero as error grows, as a local linearization must. (ii) For large errors -- where deployed learned estimators operate -- an estimator-independent average-case sub-optimality measure ACS-infinity predicts which queries are regret-prone (Spearman rho ~ 0.54 on STATS-CEB), while q-error is nearly uninformative at the query level (rho ~ 0.05). (iii) The worst case is Haritsa's maximum sub-optimality (MSO). The three are one cost-ratio spectrum under three weightings. We prove a limit law ACS-infinity = sum_k r_k pi_k with cardinality-independent combinatorial weights, and validate every claim on STATS-CEB and JOB-light with four released estimators under pre-registered decision rules, and confirm on real PostgreSQL runtime that ACS-infinity predicts regret where q-error does not. The contribution is conceptual and empirical -- an average-case companion to worst-case robust query optimization, and a characterization of when an accuracy metric tracks plan quality -- rather than a new estimator. Code and the full pre-registration are public.

The year 2024 marks the 10th anniversary of the Multidimensional Quality Metrics (MQM) framework for analytic translation quality evaluation. The MQM error typology has been widely used by practitioners in the translation and localization industry and has served as the basis for many derivative projects. The annual Conference on Machine Translation (WMT) shared tasks on both human and automatic translation quality evaluations used the MQM error typology. The metric stands on two pillars: error typology and the scoring model. The scoring model calculates the quality score from annotation data, detailing how to convert error type and severity counts into numeric scores to determine if the content meets specifications. Previously, only the raw scoring model had been published. This April, the MQM Council published the Linear Calibrated Scoring Model, officially presented herein, along with the Non-Linear Scoring Model, which had not been published before. This paper details the latest MQM developments and presents a universal approach to translation quality measurement across three sample size ranges. It also explains why Statistical Quality Control should be used for very small sample sizes, starting from a single sentence.

A paraphrase-quality audit of MathCheck (ICLR 2025) detected 4 semantically incorrect paraphrases in 129 groups (3.1%); removing them drops GPT-4o from rank 2 to rank 4 and elevates Claude Haiku and DeepSeek V3 above it; these ranking changes are invisible to any single-model evaluation. Cross-model unanimity found these errors automatically (>= 3/4 models for MathCheck; >= 6/9 for our primary evaluation) for under $10; in our own dataset the same protocol found that 47% of auto-generated connective-variation paraphrases were semantically incorrect. That flaw compounds a deeper measurement gap: Claude Haiku 4.5 achieves 86% accuracy yet SCR=50%, meaning half its theorems are answered differently under semantically equivalent restatements, while aggregate accuracy across 9 models spans only 86-96% yet Semantic Consistency Rates (SCR) span 50-82% -- a 32-point gap invisible to standard benchmarks. Formally, for any target ranking over 9 frontier models there exists a weighting over paraphrase families that realizes it (No-Free-Benchmark corollary), because no model Pareto-dominates all families -- so benchmark designers who select families are implicitly choosing which model wins. FormInv supplies the audit protocol (replicated on external benchmarks at 100% recall), SCR and per-theorem Cochran's Q as primary invariance measures evaluated on 9 models across 366-811 items (on Lean4-verified theorems), and FormInvSelector for regime-aware model selection.

Vision-language models typically reason over post-ISP RGB images, although RGB rendering can clip, suppress, or quantize sensor evidence before inference. We study whether grounding improves when the visual interface is moved closer to the underlying camera measurement. We formulate measurement-grounded vision-language learning and instantiate it as PRISM-VL, which combines RAW-derived Meas.-XYZ inputs, camera-conditioned grounding, and Exposure-Bracketed Supervision Aggregation for transferring supervision from RGB proxies to measurement-domain observations. Using a quality-controlled 150K instruction-tuning set and a held-out benchmark targeting low-light, HDR, visibility-sensitive, and hallucination-sensitive cases, PRISM-VL-8B reaches 0.6120 BLEU, 0.4571 ROUGE-L, and 82.66\% LLM-Judge accuracy, improving over the RGB Qwen3-VL-8B baseline by +0.1074 BLEU, +0.1071 ROUGE-L, and +4.46 percentage points. These results suggest that part of VLM grounding error arises from information lost during RGB rendering, and that preserving measurement-domain evidence can improve multimodal reasoning.

Posterior sampling has been shown to be a powerful Bayesian approach for solving imaging inverse problems. The recent plug-and-play unadjusted Langevin algorithm (PnP-ULA) has emerged as a promising method for Monte Carlo sampling and minimum mean squared error (MMSE) estimation by combining physical measurement models with deep-learning priors specified using image denoisers. However, the intricate relationship between the sampling distribution of PnP-ULA and the mismatched data-fidelity and denoiser has not been theoretically analyzed. We address this gap by proposing a posterior-L2 pseudometric and using it to quantify an explicit error bound for PnP-ULA under mismatched posterior distribution. We numerically validate our theory on several inverse problems such as sampling from Gaussian mixture models and image deblurring. Our results suggest that the sensitivity of the sampling distribution of PnP-ULA to a mismatch in the measurement model and the denoiser can be precisely characterized.

Within the realm of early fault-tolerant quantum computing (EFTQC), quantum Krylov subspace diagonalization (QKSD) has emerged as a promising quantum algorithm for the approximate Hamiltonian diagonalization via projection onto the quantum Krylov subspace. However, the algorithm often requires solving an ill-conditioned generalized eigenvalue problem (GEVP) involving erroneous matrix pairs, which can significantly distort the solution. Since EFTQC assumes limited-scale error correction, finite sampling error becomes a dominant source of error in these matrices. This work focuses on quantifying sampling errors during the measurement of matrix element in the projected Hamiltonian examining two measurement approaches based on the Hamiltonian decompositions: the linear combination of unitaries and diagonalizable fragments. To reduce sampling error within a fixed budget of quantum circuit repetitions, we propose two measurement strategies: the shifting technique and coefficient splitting. The shifting technique eliminates redundant Hamiltonian components that annihilate either the bra or ket states, while coefficient splitting optimizes the measurement of common terms across different circuits. Numerical experiments with electronic structures of small molecules demonstrate the effectiveness of these strategies, reducing sampling costs by a factor of 20-500.

Large language models (LLMs) have captured significant interest from both academia and industry due to their impressive performance across various textual tasks. However, the potential of LLMs to analyze physiological time-series data remains an emerging research field. Particularly, there is a notable gap in the utilization of LLMs for analyzing wearable biosignals to achieve cuffless blood pressure (BP) measurement, which is critical for the management of cardiovascular diseases. This paper presents the first work to explore the capacity of LLMs to perform cuffless BP estimation based on wearable biosignals. We extracted physiological features from electrocardiogram (ECG) and photoplethysmogram (PPG) signals and designed context-enhanced prompts by combining these features with BP domain knowledge and user information. Subsequently, we adapted LLMs to BP estimation tasks through fine-tuning. To evaluate the proposed approach, we conducted assessments of ten advanced LLMs using a comprehensive public dataset of wearable biosignals from 1,272 participants. The experimental results demonstrate that the optimally fine-tuned LLM significantly surpasses conventional task-specific baselines, achieving an estimation error of 0.00 pm 9.25 mmHg for systolic BP and 1.29 pm 6.37 mmHg for diastolic BP. Notably, the ablation studies highlight the benefits of our context enhancement strategy, leading to an 8.9% reduction in mean absolute error for systolic BP estimation. This paper pioneers the exploration of LLMs for cuffless BP measurement, providing a potential solution to enhance the accuracy of cuffless BP measurement.

Medical vision-language models often struggle with generating accurate quantitative measurements in radiology reports, leading to hallucinations that undermine clinical reliability. We introduce FactCheXcker, a modular framework that de-hallucinates radiology report measurements by leveraging an improved query-code-update paradigm. Specifically, FactCheXcker employs specialized modules and the code generation capabilities of large language models to solve measurement queries generated based on the original report. After extracting measurable findings, the results are incorporated into an updated report. We evaluate FactCheXcker on endotracheal tube placement, which accounts for an average of 78% of report measurements, using the MIMIC-CXR dataset and 11 medical report-generation models. Our results show that FactCheXcker significantly reduces hallucinations, improves measurement precision, and maintains the quality of the original reports. Specifically, FactCheXcker improves the performance of 10/11 models and achieves an average improvement of 135.0% in reducing measurement hallucinations measured by mean absolute error. Code is available at https://github.com/rajpurkarlab/FactCheXcker.

The realization of scalable fault-tolerant quantum computing is expected to hinge on quantum error-correcting codes. In the quest for more efficient quantum fault tolerance, a critical code parameter is the weight of measurements that extract information about errors to enable error correction: as higher measurement weights require higher implementation costs and introduce more errors, it is important in code design to optimize measurement weight. This underlies the surging interest in quantum low-density parity-check (qLDPC) codes, the study of which has primarily focused on the asymptotic (large-code-limit) properties. In this work, we introduce a versatile and computationally efficient approach to stabilizer code weight reduction based on reinforcement learning (RL), which produces new low-weight codes that substantially outperform the state of the art in practically relevant parameter regimes, extending significantly beyond previously accessible small distances. For example, our approach demonstrates savings in physical qubit overhead compared to existing results by 1 to 2 orders of magnitude for weight 6 codes and brings the overhead into a feasible range for near-future experiments. We also investigate the interplay between code parameters using our RL framework, offering new insights into the potential efficiency and power of practically viable coding strategies. Overall, our results demonstrate how RL can effectively advance the crucial yet challenging problem of quantum code discovery and thereby facilitate a faster path to the practical implementation of fault-tolerant quantum technologies.

The recent success of machine learning models, especially large-scale classifiers and language models, relies heavily on training with massive data. These data are often collected from online sources. This raises serious concerns about the protection of user data, as individuals may not have given consent for their data to be used in training. To address this concern, recent studies introduce the concept of unlearnable examples, i.e., data instances that appear natural but are intentionally altered to prevent models from effectively learning from them. While existing methods demonstrate empirical effectiveness, they typically rely on heuristic trials and lack formal guarantees. Besides, when unlearnable examples are mixed with clean data, as is often the case in practice, their unlearnability disappears. In this work, we propose a novel approach to constructing unlearnable examples by systematically maximising the Bayes error, a measurement of irreducible classification error. We develop an optimisation-based approach and provide an efficient solution using projected gradient ascent. Our method provably increases the Bayes error and remains effective when the unlearning examples are mixed with clean samples. Experimental results across multiple datasets and model architectures are consistent with our theoretical analysis and show that our approach can restrict data learnability, effectively in practice.

Telehealth and remote health monitoring have become increasingly important during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic and it is widely expected that this will have a lasting impact on healthcare practices. These tools can help reduce the risk of exposing patients and medical staff to infection, make healthcare services more accessible, and allow providers to see more patients. However, objective measurement of vital signs is challenging without direct contact with a patient. We present a video-based and on-device optical cardiopulmonary vital sign measurement approach. It leverages a novel multi-task temporal shift convolutional attention network (MTTS-CAN) and enables real-time cardiovascular and respiratory measurements on mobile platforms. We evaluate our system on an Advanced RISC Machine (ARM) CPU and achieve state-of-the-art accuracy while running at over 150 frames per second which enables real-time applications. Systematic experimentation on large benchmark datasets reveals that our approach leads to substantial (20%-50%) reductions in error and generalizes well across datasets.

Autoregressive models accumulate error over long rollouts, yet at deployment there is no ground truth to measure it against. We train a single conditional latent diffusion model that steps a dynamical system forward or backward in time via a direction flag, and show that this bidirectionality supplies a measurement-free test-time error signal: rolling forward i steps and then backward i steps must return the model to its start, so the round-trip discrepancy C_i is a self-supervised proxy for the unobservable rollout error: no ensembles, no held-out data, no governing equations, for one extra rollout. We validate on compressible magnetohydrodynamics (MHD), an astrophysical turbulent radiative mixing layer, and natural face videos (CelebV-HQ). On held-out MHD trajectories, C_i ranks rollout error (Spearman 0.91-0.98 at fixed depth; 0.69 pm 0.16 within trajectories), and a simple calibrator fit on training rollouts predicts its magnitude to within 1.14times (68%) and 1.29times (95%) with near-nominal coverage - one nat beyond a depth-only predictor, transferring to all six decoded physical fields. The same signal flags the out-of-distribution Orszag-Tang vortex (AUROC 0.98; 1.0 by depth 10) exactly where sampling-dispersion baselines invert, and it cuts incurred error by 15% at 80% coverage - three times the depth-only baseline. Bidirectional training comes at negative cost, beating direction specialists in both directions, and the backward direction doubles as a fast inverse solver. On LE-PDE-UQ's turbulent Navier-Stokes benchmark, a single bidirectional model reaches accuracy within 1.3times of their ten-model ensemble at a tenth of the training cost, with the best training-free pixel-level calibration. Round-trip consistency turns reversibility into a practical trust signal for generative models.

Urban populations are increasingly exposed to extreme heat events such as heatwaves, which can be exacerbated in cities due to the urban heat island (UHI) effect. With the aim of developing adaptation strategies, recent years have seen a growing interest in deploying high-resolution measurement networks using low-cost devices (LCDs), which enable the evaluation of intra-urban temperature distribution and its impacts at an unprecedented spatial resolution. However, the reliability of LCD measurements has been called into question, especially regarding potential overheating due to inadequate radiation shielding. In this study, we develop a statistical method to correct temperature biases based on short-wave radiation using a generalized additive model (GAM) and then apply it to LCD measurements in the urban climate networks of the cities of Bern, Lausanne, Neuchatel and Zurich (Switzerland). To that end, we first calibrate the correction procedure to the LCD models used in each city using an intercomparison field study, in which the LCD models are collocated next to a professional automated weather station (AWS) operated by MeteoSwiss in the rural surroundings of Bern. Then, we evaluate how these corrections can influence two climate indices, namely the number of tropical nights and the number of heat warnings issued in each city according to MeteoSwiss heat warning system. The findings suggest that the current AWS underestimate the heat warnings, whereas some LCD models likely overestimate them due to radiative errors. Nevertheless, uncorrected LCD measurements still provide a more reliable estimate of urban temperatures than AWS located outside urban settings. The insights can guide selection of LCD models for new monitoring networks and support the application of model-specific radiative bias corrections to existing LCDs, enabling more accurate assessments of heat and its impacts.

Potholes cause vehicle damage and traffic accidents, creating serious safety and economic problems. Therefore, early and accurate detection of potholes is crucial. Existing detection methods are usually only based on 2D RGB images and cannot accurately analyze the physical characteristics of potholes. In this paper, a publicly available dataset of RGB-D images (PothRGBD) is created and an improved YOLOv8-based model is proposed for both pothole detection and pothole physical features analysis. The Intel RealSense D415 depth camera was used to collect RGB and depth data from the road surfaces, resulting in a PothRGBD dataset of 1000 images. The data was labeled in YOLO format suitable for segmentation. A novel YOLO model is proposed based on the YOLOv8n-seg architecture, which is structurally improved with Dynamic Snake Convolution (DSConv), Simple Attention Module (SimAM) and Gaussian Error Linear Unit (GELU). The proposed model segmented potholes with irregular edge structure more accurately, and performed perimeter and depth measurements on depth maps with high accuracy. The standard YOLOv8n-seg model achieved 91.9% precision, 85.2% recall and 91.9% mAP@50. With the proposed model, the values increased to 93.7%, 90.4% and 93.8% respectively. Thus, an improvement of 1.96% in precision, 6.13% in recall and 2.07% in mAP was achieved. The proposed model performs pothole detection as well as perimeter and depth measurement with high accuracy and is suitable for real-time applications due to its low model complexity. In this way, a lightweight and effective model that can be used in deep learning-based intelligent transportation solutions has been acquired.

Reading measurement instruments is effortless for humans and requires relatively little domain expertise, yet it remains surprisingly challenging for current vision-language models (VLMs) as we find in preliminary evaluation. In this work, we introduce MeasureBench, a benchmark on visual measurement reading covering both real-world and synthesized images of various types of measurements, along with an extensible pipeline for data synthesis. Our pipeline procedurally generates a specified type of gauge with controllable visual appearance, enabling scalable variation in key details such as pointers, scales, fonts, lighting, and clutter. Evaluation on popular proprietary and open-weight VLMs shows that even the strongest frontier VLMs struggle measurement reading in general. A consistent failure mode is indicator localization: models can read digits or labels but misidentify the key positions of pointers or alignments, leading to big numeric errors despite plausible textual reasoning. We have also conducted preliminary experiments with reinforcement learning over synthetic data, and find encouraging results on in-domain synthetic subset but less promising for real-world images. Our analysis highlights a fundamental limitation of current VLMs in fine-grained spatial grounding. We hope this resource can help future advances on visually grounded numeracy and precise spatial perception of VLMs, bridging the gap between recognizing numbers and measuring the world.

Near-term quantum workloads are shaped by coupled compilation and execution choices: qubit layout, routing, basis translation, gate suppression, measurement mitigation, shot budget, and artifact reproducibility. This paper analyzes QBalance, a Python workflow library for dataset-level selection among quantum compilation, noise-suppression, and error-mitigation strategies built on the Qiskit ecosystem. The contribution is formulated as a finite multi-objective strategy-selection problem over circuits, backends, and transformation policies. The manuscript derives the implemented weighted objective, non-dominated selection rule, survival-product error proxy, Bayesian linear candidate-ordering surrogate, and distributional diagnostics. It also positions the system relative to established work on Qiskit pass-manager compilation, SABRE-style routing, randomized compiling, dynamical decoupling, zero-noise extrapolation, matrix-free measurement mitigation, circuit cutting, and Thompson sampling. The analysis shows that QBalance provides a reproducible orchestration and artifact model for quantum workflow studies. It also establishes precise limitations: the current bandit mechanism orders candidates but does not reduce the number of candidate evaluations, the custom layout heuristic is greedy and only partially topology-aware, the implemented ZNE helper is parity-centered, and the cutting integration is a hook rather than a full reconstruction pipeline.

We present an experimental implementation of the multiplayer Quantum Volunteer's Dilemma on noisy intermediate-scale quantum (NISQ) hardware, executed on the ibm_kingston backend via Qiskit Runtime. The game is evaluated for N = 2 to 9 players under four transpiler optimization levels, with 20 independent repetitions per configuration and 2048 shots per circuit, including post-processing readout error correction via mthree. Target-state fidelity decays with system size but remains above 70% (corrected) through N = 9. With readout correction, the global average payoff reproduces the quantum theoretical benchmark exactly for N <= 6 and exceeds the classical Nash equilibrium across the full tested range. Optimization level 2 is selected as the reference configuration after gate count analysis reveals that levels 2 and 3 produce identical transpiled circuits, with level 2 achieving superior fidelity stability. A Hamming distance analysis of raw measurement counts shows that single-qubit errors dominate at small N, with multi-qubit contributions growing beyond N = 6. A calibration-based digital twin captures global payoff trends but exhibits a linear fidelity decay profile that diverges from the hardware behavior at large N, exposing the limits of first-order independent per-qubit noise models. These results demonstrate that aggregate quantum advantage in multiplayer games is robust to NISQ noise conditions across the full tested range, while the practical observability of state-level advantage is constrained to N <= 8 under post-processed readout correction.

Accurate, low-latency channel modeling is essential for real-time wireless network simulation and digital-twin applications. Traditional modeling methods like ray tracing are however computationally demanding and unsuited to model dynamic conditions. In this paper, we propose AIRMap, a deep-learning framework for ultra-fast radio-map estimation, along with an automated pipeline for creating the largest radio-map dataset to date. AIRMap uses a single-input U-Net autoencoder that processes only a 2D elevation map of terrain and building heights. Trained on 1.2M Boston-area samples and validated across four distinct urban and rural environments with varying terrain and building density, AIRMap predicts path gain with under 4 dB RMSE in 4 ms per inference on an NVIDIA L40S-over 100x faster than GPU-accelerated ray tracing based radio maps. A lightweight calibration using just 20% of field measurements reduces the median error to approximately 5%, significantly outperforming traditional simulators, which exceed 50% error. Integration into the Colosseum emulator and the Sionna SYS platform demonstrate near-zero error in spectral efficiency and block-error rate compared to measurement-based channels. These findings validate AIRMap's potential for scalable, accurate, and real-time radio map estimation in wireless digital twins.

Community parks play a crucial role in promoting physical activity and overall well-being. This study introduces DLICP (Deep Learning Integrated Community Parks), an innovative approach that combines deep learning techniques specifically, face recognition technology with a novel walking activity measurement algorithm to enhance user experience in community parks. The DLICP utilizes a camera with face recognition software to accurately identify and track park users. Simultaneously, a walking activity measurement algorithm calculates parameters such as the average pace and calories burned, tailored to individual attributes. Extensive evaluations confirm the precision of DLICP, with a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 5.64 calories and a Mean Percentage Error (MPE) of 1.96%, benchmarked against widely available fitness measurement devices, such as the Apple Watch Series 6. This study contributes significantly to the development of intelligent smart park systems, enabling real-time updates on burned calories and personalized fitness tracking.

This paper presents a computationally feasible method to compute rigorous bounds on the interval-generalisation of regression analysis to account for epistemic uncertainty in the output variables. The new iterative method uses machine learning algorithms to fit an imprecise regression model to data that consist of intervals rather than point values. The method is based on a single-layer interval neural network which can be trained to produce an interval prediction. It seeks parameters for the optimal model that minimizes the mean squared error between the actual and predicted interval values of the dependent variable using a first-order gradient-based optimization and interval analysis computations to model the measurement imprecision of the data. An additional extension to a multi-layer neural network is also presented. We consider the explanatory variables to be precise point values, but the measured dependent values are characterized by interval bounds without any probabilistic information. The proposed iterative method estimates the lower and upper bounds of the expectation region, which is an envelope of all possible precise regression lines obtained by ordinary regression analysis based on any configuration of real-valued points from the respective y-intervals and their x-values.

Data assimilation is the process of estimating the time-evolving state of a dynamical system by integrating model predictions and noisy observations. It is commonly formulated as Bayesian filtering, but classical filters often struggle with accuracy or computational feasibility in high dimensions. Recently, score-based generative models have emerged as a scalable approach for high-dimensional data assimilation, enabling accurate modeling and sampling of complex distributions. However, existing score-based filters often specify the forward process independently of the data assimilation. As a result, the measurement-update step depends on heuristic approximations of the likelihood score, which can accumulate errors and degrade performance over time. Here, we propose a measurement-aware score-based filter (MASF) that defines a measurement-aware forward process directly from the measurement equation. This construction makes the likelihood score analytically tractable: for linear measurements, we derive the exact likelihood score and combine it with a learned prior score to obtain the posterior score. Numerical experiments covering a range of settings, including high-dimensional datasets, demonstrate improved accuracy and stability over existing score-based filters.

Accurate prediction of Lagrangian trajectories in turbulent flow remains challenging due to limited temporal information in transport functions. This paper shows that surrounding coherent motions sharing the same dynamics carry enough information to provide highly probable trajectories even from sparse temporal observations. The proposed coherent predictor builds on Lagrangian coherent structures (LCSs), the advective transport barriers that govern the cohesive motion of neighbouring particles. Coherent trajectories are quantified using a local segmentation with the finite-time Lyapunov exponents (FTLE). The coherent predictor incorporates information from the particle's position history and neighbouring coherent velocity and acceleration into a novel cost function to predict its trajectory. The proposed cost function follows a physics-informed approach where the position history acts as a data fidelity term and the coherent velocity and acceleration act as physics-based regularisation constraints. We assess our proposed approach using both three-dimensional (3D) synthetic and experimental data of the wake behind a smooth cylinder and two-dimensional (2D) homogeneous isotropic turbulent (HIT) flow. The coherent predictor is deemed generic due to its consistent behaviour regardless of flow dimensions, Reynolds number, and flow topology. Our results show that the optimal cost function parameters can be modelled from the measurement uncertainties, giving lower prediction error and uncertainty than current methods. We see direct signatures of flow topology on the prediction error map, including the cylinder leading edge boundary layer, the sideward shear layers, and the vortex formation structures. These topologies are marked by high Lagrangian gradients and 3D directional motions.

Given a pretrained encoder-based language model, how can we accurately compress it without retraining? Retraining-free structured pruning algorithms are crucial in pretrained language model compression due to their significantly reduced pruning cost and capability to prune large language models. However, existing retraining-free algorithms encounter severe accuracy degradation, as they fail to handle pruning errors, especially at high compression rates. In this paper, we propose K-prune (Knowledge-preserving pruning), an accurate retraining-free structured pruning algorithm for pretrained encoder-based language models. K-prune focuses on preserving the useful knowledge of the pretrained model to minimize pruning errors through a carefully designed iterative pruning process composed of knowledge measurement, knowledge-preserving mask search, and knowledge-preserving weight-tuning. As a result, K-prune shows significant accuracy improvements up to 58.02%p higher F1 score compared to existing retraining-free pruning algorithms under a high compression rate of 80% on the SQuAD benchmark without any retraining process.

Standardized benchmarks drive progress in machine learning. However, with repeated testing, the risk of overfitting grows as algorithms over-exploit benchmark idiosyncrasies. In our work, we seek to mitigate this challenge by compiling ever-expanding large-scale benchmarks called Lifelong Benchmarks. As exemplars of our approach, we create Lifelong-CIFAR10 and Lifelong-ImageNet, containing (for now) 1.69M and 1.98M test samples, respectively. While reducing overfitting, lifelong benchmarks introduce a key challenge: the high cost of evaluating a growing number of models across an ever-expanding sample set. To address this challenge, we also introduce an efficient evaluation framework: Sort \& Search (S&S), which reuses previously evaluated models by leveraging dynamic programming algorithms to selectively rank and sub-select test samples, enabling cost-effective lifelong benchmarking. Extensive empirical evaluations across 31,000 models demonstrate that S&S achieves highly-efficient approximate accuracy measurement, reducing compute cost from 180 GPU days to 5 GPU hours (1000x reduction) on a single A100 GPU, with low approximation error. As such, lifelong benchmarks offer a robust, practical solution to the "benchmark exhaustion" problem.

Generative sequence models are often trained to plan motion in physical domains, from robotics to mechanical simulations. When constructing a dataset to train such a model, engineers may curate demonstrations to specify how trajectories should be distributed over a physical quantity like travel distance or mechanical energy. For example, a roboticist building a maze navigation agent might choose demonstrations whose travel distances cover a fixed range uniformly, hoping to constrain the agent's expected power usage. We find that standard deep learning can violate this intent: each generated trajectory can seem plausible on its own, but the aggregate distribution over the physical quantity is wrong. We call this failure physical misgeneralization, and develop an account of its mechanism. Using controlled synthetic tasks, we show that physical misgeneralization arises when local errors typical of the model class propagate through the physical measurement to shift the recovered distribution. We estimate these errors with a data deviation kernel, and we use it to predict which physical quantities gain or lose mass in both our synthetic and more applied maze navigation and double-pendulum motion tasks. Finally, our mechanistic interpretation helps identify which mitigation strategies are structurally promising, and we use it to propose a kernel-informed intervention.

Current vision-language models (VLMs) in medicine are primarily designed for categorical question answering (e.g., "Is this normal or abnormal?") or qualitative descriptive tasks. However, clinical decision-making often relies on quantitative assessments, such as measuring the size of a tumor or the angle of a joint, from which physicians draw their own diagnostic conclusions. This quantitative reasoning capability remains underexplored and poorly supported in existing VLMs. In this work, we introduce MedVision, a large-scale dataset and benchmark specifically designed to evaluate and improve VLMs on quantitative medical image analysis. MedVision spans 22 public datasets covering diverse anatomies and modalities, with 30.8 million image-annotation pairs. We focus on three representative quantitative tasks: (1) detection of anatomical structures and abnormalities, (2) tumor/lesion (T/L) size estimation, and (3) angle/distance (A/D) measurement. Our benchmarks show that current off-the-shelf VLMs perform poorly on these tasks. However, with supervised fine-tuning on MedVision, we significantly enhance their performance across detection, T/L estimation, and A/D measurement, demonstrating reduced error rates and improved precision. This work provides a foundation for developing VLMs with robust quantitative reasoning capabilities in medical imaging. Code and data are available at https://medvision-vlm.github.io.

Recently, Hastings & Haah introduced a quantum memory defined on the honeycomb lattice. Remarkably, this honeycomb code assembles weight-six parity checks using only two-local measurements. The sparse connectivity and two-local measurements are desirable features for certain hardware, while the weight-six parity checks enable robust performance in the circuit model. In this work, we quantify the robustness of logical qubits preserved by the honeycomb code using a correlated minimum-weight perfect-matching decoder. Using Monte Carlo sampling, we estimate the honeycomb code's threshold in different error models, and project how efficiently it can reach the "teraquop regime" where trillions of quantum logical operations can be executed reliably. We perform the same estimates for the rotated surface code, and find a threshold of 0.2%-0.3% for the honeycomb code compared to a threshold of 0.5%-0.7% for the surface code in a controlled-not circuit model. In a circuit model with native two-body measurements, the honeycomb code achieves a threshold of 1.5% < p <2.0%, where p is the collective error rate of the two-body measurement gate - including both measurement and correlated data depolarization error processes. With such gates at a physical error rate of 10^{-3}, we project that the honeycomb code can reach the teraquop regime with only 600 physical qubits.

Long-form image captioning exposes a reward granularity problem in RL: captions are judged as whole sequences, while the important errors occur at the level of individual visual claims. A good dense caption should be both faithful and informative, avoiding hallucination without omitting salient details. Yet pairwise preferences, reference-based metrics, and holistic scalar rewards compress these local errors into a single sequence-level signal, obscuring the tradeoff between factuality and coverage. We introduce ClaimDiff-RL, a framework that uses reference-conditioned atomic claim differences as the reward unit for caption RL. Given an image, an actor caption, and a reference caption, a multimodal judge enumerates visually grounded differences, verifies each difference against the image, assigns open-vocabulary error types and severity levels, and produces per-difference statistics for reward composition. This makes hallucinated claims and omitted salient facts separately measurable and tunable. Experiments show that holistic scalar rewards can reduce hallucination by increasing missing facts, while ClaimDiff-RL exposes this faithfulness and coverage tradeoff and enables more balanced operating points. On a 160-image human-labeled diagnostic benchmark, public captioning benchmarks, and VQA benchmarks, ClaimDiff-RL improves the hallucination--missing-fact balance, preserves general capability, and even surpasses Gemini-3-Pro-Preview on several fine-grained Capability dimensions such as object counting, spatial relations, and scene recognition. These results suggest that typed, verifiable claim differences are an effective reward unit for fine-grained and diagnosable caption RL.

As a crucial element of public security, video anomaly detection (VAD) aims to measure deviations from normal patterns for various events in real-time surveillance systems. However, most existing VAD methods rely on large-scale models to pursue extreme accuracy, limiting their feasibility on resource-limited edge devices. Moreover, mainstream prediction-based VAD detects anomalies using only single-frame future prediction errors, overlooking the richer constraints from longer-term temporal forward information. In this paper, we introduce FoGA, a lightweight VAD model that performs Forward consistency learning with Gated context Aggregation, containing about 2M parameters and tailored for potential edge devices. Specifically, we propose a Unet-based method that performs feature extraction on consecutive frames to generate both immediate and forward predictions. Then, we introduce a gated context aggregation module into the skip connections to dynamically fuse encoder and decoder features at the same spatial scale. Finally, the model is jointly optimized with a novel forward consistency loss, and a hybrid anomaly measurement strategy is adopted to integrate errors from both immediate and forward frames for more accurate detection. Extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method, which substantially outperforms state-of-the-art competing methods, running up to 155 FPS. Hence, our FoGA achieves an excellent trade-off between performance and the efficiency metric.

Speech conveys not only linguistic information but also rich non-verbal vocal events such as laughing and crying. While semantic transcription is well-studied, the precise localization of non-verbal events remains a critical yet under-explored challenge. Current methods suffer from insufficient task definitions with limited category coverage and ambiguous temporal granularity. They also lack standardized evaluation frameworks, hindering the development of downstream applications. To bridge this gap, we first develop a refined taxonomy of 21 vocal events, with a new categorization into discrete (standalone) versus continuous (mixed with speech) types. Based on the refined taxonomy, we introduce WESR-Bench, an expert-annotated evaluation set (900+ utterances) with a novel position-aware protocol that disentangles ASR errors from event detection, enabling precise localization measurement for both discrete and continuous events. We also build a strong baseline by constructing a 1,700+ hour corpus, and train specialized models, surpassing both open-source audio-language models and commercial APIs while preserving ASR quality. We anticipate that WESR will serve as a foundational resource for future research in modeling rich, real-world auditory scenes.

AI systems can fail silently. The failure propagates through training loops, evaluation pipelines, and production monitoring stacks until downstream harm makes it visible. This paper introduces evaluation blindness: a measurement function M exhibits evaluation blindness with respect to failure class F when it produces readings indistinguishable from a healthy state while the system is actually failing, with no auxiliary signal flagging the gap. The problem surfaces at two lifecycle stages the literature has treated separately. At training time, reward models are gamed, importance-sampling corrections are silently miscalculated, and benchmark contamination inflates fine-tuning evaluations, all while loss curves look healthy and gradient updates proceed normally. At deployment time, monitoring fails to catch six classes of production failure, including an Operational category that is 100% silent by structural definition. We provide a formal detectability predicate unifying both stages. Four training-time case studies trace concrete breakdowns, including a real implementation bug in TRL PR #6594 where gradients are corrupted as loss decreases normally. A six-class taxonomy validated against 50 real-world incidents from court documents and regulatory filings finds that 53% of verifiable public failures were silent. A failure budget framework ties acceptable failure rates to use-case risk class. The implication is direct: measurement infrastructure is a correctness concern across the full AI lifecycle, not just at evaluation time. Data, code, and taxonomy schema are at https://github.com/priyanka25aug/llm-failure-taxonomy.

Noise plagues many numerical datasets, where the recorded values in the data may fail to match the true underlying values due to reasons including: erroneous sensors, data entry/processing mistakes, or imperfect human estimates. We consider general regression settings with covariates and a potentially corrupted response whose observed values may contain errors. By accounting for various uncertainties, we introduced veracity scores that distinguish between genuine errors and natural data fluctuations, conditioned on the available covariate information in the dataset. We propose a simple yet efficient filtering procedure for eliminating potential errors, and establish theoretical guarantees for our method. We also contribute a new error detection benchmark involving 5 regression datasets with real-world numerical errors (for which the true values are also known). In this benchmark and additional simulation studies, our method identifies incorrect values with better precision/recall than other approaches.

We identify the task of measuring data to quantitatively characterize the composition of machine learning data and datasets. Similar to an object's height, width, and volume, data measurements quantify different attributes of data along common dimensions that support comparison. Several lines of research have proposed what we refer to as measurements, with differing terminology; we bring some of this work together, particularly in fields of computer vision and language, and build from it to motivate measuring data as a critical component of responsible AI development. Measuring data aids in systematically building and analyzing machine learning (ML) data towards specific goals and gaining better control of what modern ML systems will learn. We conclude with a discussion of the many avenues of future work, the limitations of data measurements, and how to leverage these measurement approaches in research and practice.

Models of many engineering and natural systems are imperfect. The discrepancy between the mathematical representations of a true physical system and its imperfect model is called the model error. These model errors can lead to substantial differences between the numerical solutions of the model and the state of the system, particularly in those involving nonlinear, multi-scale phenomena. Thus, there is increasing interest in reducing model errors, particularly by leveraging the rapidly growing observational data to understand their physics and sources. Here, we introduce a framework named MEDIDA: Model Error Discovery with Interpretability and Data Assimilation. MEDIDA only requires a working numerical solver of the model and a small number of noise-free or noisy sporadic observations of the system. In MEDIDA, first the model error is estimated from differences between the observed states and model-predicted states (the latter are obtained from a number of one-time-step numerical integrations from the previous observed states). If observations are noisy, a data assimilation (DA) technique such as ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is employed to provide the analysis state of the system, which is then used to estimate the model error. Finally, an equation-discovery technique, here the relevance vector machine (RVM), a sparsity-promoting Bayesian method, is used to identify an interpretable, parsimonious, and closed-form representation of the model error. Using the chaotic Kuramoto-Sivashinsky (KS) system as the test case, we demonstrate the excellent performance of MEDIDA in discovering different types of structural/parametric model errors, representing different types of missing physics, using noise-free and noisy observations.

Overconfidence and underconfidence in machine learning classifiers is measured by calibration: the degree to which the probabilities predicted for each class match the accuracy of the classifier on that prediction. How one measures calibration remains a challenge: expected calibration error, the most popular metric, has numerous flaws which we outline, and there is no clear empirical understanding of how its choices affect conclusions in practice, and what recommendations there are to counteract its flaws. In this paper, we perform a comprehensive empirical study of choices in calibration measures including measuring all probabilities rather than just the maximum prediction, thresholding probability values, class conditionality, number of bins, bins that are adaptive to the datapoint density, and the norm used to compare accuracies to confidences. To analyze the sensitivity of calibration measures, we study the impact of optimizing directly for each variant with recalibration techniques. Across MNIST, Fashion MNIST, CIFAR-10/100, and ImageNet, we find that conclusions on the rank ordering of recalibration methods is drastically impacted by the choice of calibration measure. We find that conditioning on the class leads to more effective calibration evaluations, and that using the L2 norm rather than the L1 norm improves both optimization for calibration metrics and the rank correlation measuring metric consistency. Adaptive binning schemes lead to more stablity of metric rank ordering when the number of bins vary, and is also recommended. We open source a library for the use of our calibration measures.

Priorities in multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) convey the relevance preference of one criterion over another, which is usually reflected by imposing the non-negativity and unit-sum constraints. The processing of such priorities is different than other unconstrained data, but this point is often neglected by researchers, which results in fallacious statistical analysis. This article studies three prevalent fallacies in group MCDM along with solutions based on compositional data analysis to avoid misusing statistical operations. First, we use a compositional approach to aggregate the priorities of a group of DMs and show that the outcome of the compositional analysis is identical to the normalized geometric mean, meaning that the arithmetic mean should be avoided. Furthermore, a new aggregation method is developed, which is a robust surrogate for the geometric mean. We also discuss the errors in computing measures of dispersion, including standard deviation and distance functions. Discussing the fallacies in computing the standard deviation, we provide a probabilistic criteria ranking by developing proper Bayesian tests, where we calculate the extent to which a criterion is more important than another. Finally, we explain the errors in computing the distance between priorities, and a clustering algorithm is specially tailored based on proper distance metrics.

Benchmarks are pivotal in driving AI progress, and invalid benchmark questions frequently undermine their reliability. Manually identifying and correcting errors among thousands of benchmark questions is not only infeasible but also a critical bottleneck for reliable evaluation. In this work, we introduce a framework for systematic benchmark revision that leverages statistical analysis of response patterns to flag potentially invalid questions for further expert review. Our approach builds on a core assumption commonly used in AI evaluations that the mean score sufficiently summarizes model performance. This implies a unidimensional latent construct underlying the measurement experiment, yielding expected ranges for various statistics for each item. When empirically estimated values for these statistics fall outside the expected range for an item, the item is more likely to be problematic. Across nine widely used benchmarks, our method guides expert review to identify problematic questions with up to 84\% precision. In addition, we introduce an LLM-judge first pass to review questions, further reducing human effort. Together, these components provide an efficient and scalable framework for systematic benchmark revision.

We propose a modified moment matching algorithm to avoid catastrophic failures for sources with a low signal to noise ratio (SNR). The proposed modifications include a method to eliminate non-physical negative pixel values and a forced single iteration with an initial guess derived from co-add measurements when iterative methods are unstable. We correct for all biases in measurements introduced by the method. We find that the proposed modifications allow the algorithm to avoid catastrophic failures in nearly 100\% of the cases, especially at low signal to noise ratio. Additionally, with a reasonable guess from co-add measurements, the algorithm measures the flux, centroid, size, shape and ellipticity with bias statistically consistent with zero. We show the proposed method allows us to measure sources seven times fainter than traditional methods when applied to images obtained from WIYN-ODI. We also present a scheme to find uncertainties in measurements when using the new method to measure astronomical sources.

Large Language Models (LLM) benchmarks tell us when models fail, but not why they fail. A wrong answer on a reasoning dataset may stem from formatting issues, calculation errors, or dataset noise rather than weak reasoning. Without disentangling such causes, benchmarks remain incomplete and cannot reliably guide model improvement. We introduce ErrorMap, the first method to chart the sources of LLM failure. It extracts a model's unique "failure signature", clarifies what benchmarks measure, and broadens error identification to reduce blind spots. This helps developers debug models, aligns benchmark goals with outcomes, and supports informed model selection. ErrorMap works on any model or dataset with the same logic. Applying our method to 35 datasets and 83 models we generate ErrorAtlas, a taxonomy of model errors, revealing recurring failure patterns. ErrorAtlas highlights error types that are currently underexplored in LLM research, such as omissions of required details in the output and question misinterpretation. By shifting focus from where models succeed to why they fail, ErrorMap and ErrorAtlas enable advanced evaluation - one that exposes hidden weaknesses and directs progress. Unlike success, typically measured by task-level metrics, our approach introduces a deeper evaluation layer that can be applied globally across models and tasks, offering richer insights into model behavior and limitations. We make the taxonomy and code publicly available with plans to periodically update ErrorAtlas as new benchmarks and models emerge.

Sparse linear regression is one of the most basic questions in machine learning and statistics. Here, we are given as input a design matrix X in R^{N times d} and measurements or labels {y} in R^N where {y} = {X} {w}^* + {xi}, and {xi} is the noise in the measurements. Importantly, we have the additional constraint that the unknown signal vector {w}^* is sparse: it has k non-zero entries where k is much smaller than the ambient dimension. Our goal is to output a prediction vector {w} that has small prediction error: 1{N}cdot |{X} {w}^* - {X} {w}|^2_2. Information-theoretically, we know what is best possible in terms of measurements: under most natural noise distributions, we can get prediction error at most epsilon with roughly N = O(k log d/epsilon) samples. Computationally, this currently needs d^{Omega(k)} run-time. Alternately, with N = O(d), we can get polynomial-time. Thus, there is an exponential gap (in the dependence on d) between the two and we do not know if it is possible to get d^{o(k)} run-time and o(d) samples. We give the first generic positive result for worst-case design matrices {X}: For any {X}, we show that if the support of {w}^* is chosen at random, we can get prediction error epsilon with N = poly(k, log d, 1/epsilon) samples and run-time poly(d,N). This run-time holds for any design matrix {X} with condition number up to 2^{poly(d)}. Previously, such results were known for worst-case {w}^*, but only for random design matrices from well-behaved families, matrices that have a very low condition number (poly(log d); e.g., as studied in compressed sensing), or those with special structural properties.

The GLEU metric was proposed for evaluating grammatical error corrections using n-gram overlap with a set of reference sentences, as opposed to precision/recall of specific annotated errors (Napoles et al., 2015). This paper describes improvements made to the GLEU metric that address problems that arise when using an increasing number of reference sets. Unlike the originally presented metric, the modified metric does not require tuning. We recommend that this version be used instead of the original version.

We introduce a novel method for measuring properties of periodic phenomena with an event camera, a device asynchronously reporting brightness changes at independently operating pixels. The approach assumes that for fast periodic phenomena, in any spatial window where it occurs, a very similar set of events is generated at the time difference corresponding to the frequency of the motion. To estimate the frequency, we compute correlations of spatio-temporal windows in the event space. The period is calculated from the time differences between the peaks of the correlation responses. The method is contactless, eliminating the need for markers, and does not need distinguishable landmarks. We evaluate the proposed method on three instances of periodic phenomena: (i) light flashes, (ii) vibration, and (iii) rotational speed. In all experiments, our method achieves a relative error lower than 0.04%, which is within the error margin of ground truth measurements.

We identify label errors in the test sets of 10 of the most commonly-used computer vision, natural language, and audio datasets, and subsequently study the potential for these label errors to affect benchmark results. Errors in test sets are numerous and widespread: we estimate an average of at least 3.3% errors across the 10 datasets, where for example label errors comprise at least 6% of the ImageNet validation set. Putative label errors are identified using confident learning algorithms and then human-validated via crowdsourcing (51% of the algorithmically-flagged candidates are indeed erroneously labeled, on average across the datasets). Traditionally, machine learning practitioners choose which model to deploy based on test accuracy - our findings advise caution here, proposing that judging models over correctly labeled test sets may be more useful, especially for noisy real-world datasets. Surprisingly, we find that lower capacity models may be practically more useful than higher capacity models in real-world datasets with high proportions of erroneously labeled data. For example, on ImageNet with corrected labels: ResNet-18 outperforms ResNet-50 if the prevalence of originally mislabeled test examples increases by just 6%. On CIFAR-10 with corrected labels: VGG-11 outperforms VGG-19 if the prevalence of originally mislabeled test examples increases by just 5%. Test set errors across the 10 datasets can be viewed at https://labelerrors.com and all label errors can be reproduced by https://github.com/cleanlab/label-errors.

Metric validation in Grammatical Error Correction (GEC) is currently done by observing the correlation between human and metric-induced rankings. However, such correlation studies are costly, methodologically troublesome, and suffer from low inter-rater agreement. We propose MAEGE, an automatic methodology for GEC metric validation, that overcomes many of the difficulties with existing practices. Experiments with \maege\ shed a new light on metric quality, showing for example that the standard M^2 metric fares poorly on corpus-level ranking. Moreover, we use MAEGE to perform a detailed analysis of metric behavior, showing that correcting some types of errors is consistently penalized by existing metrics.

3D digital anthropometry is the study of estimating human body measurements from 3D scans. Precise body measurements are important health indicators in the medical industry, and guiding factors in the fashion, ergonomic and entertainment industries. The measuring protocol consists of scanning the whole subject in the static A-pose, which is maintained without breathing or movement during the scanning process. However, the A-pose is not easy to maintain during the whole scanning process, which can last even up to a couple of minutes. This constraint affects the final quality of the scan, which in turn affects the accuracy of the estimated body measurements obtained from methods that rely on dense geometric data. Additionally, this constraint makes it impossible to develop a digital anthropometry method for subjects unable to assume the A-pose, such as those with injuries or disabilities. We propose a method that can obtain body measurements from sparse landmarks acquired in any pose. We make use of the sparse landmarks of the posed subject to create pose-independent features, and train a network to predict the body measurements as taken from the standard A-pose. We show that our method achieves comparable results to competing methods that use dense geometry in the standard A-pose, but has the capability of estimating the body measurements from any pose using sparse landmarks only. Finally, we address the lack of open-source 3D anthropometry methods by making our method available to the research community at https://github.com/DavidBoja/pose-independent-anthropometry.

This paper addresses a regression problem in which output label values are the results of sensing the magnitude of a phenomenon. A low value of such labels can mean either that the actual magnitude of the phenomenon was low or that the sensor made an incomplete observation. This leads to a bias toward lower values in labels and the resultant learning because labels may have lower values due to incomplete observations, even if the actual magnitude of the phenomenon was high. Moreover, because an incomplete observation does not provide any tags indicating incompleteness, we cannot eliminate or impute them. To address this issue, we propose a learning algorithm that explicitly models incomplete observations corrupted with an asymmetric noise that always has a negative value. We show that our algorithm is unbiased as if it were learned from uncorrupted data that does not involve incomplete observations. We demonstrate the advantages of our algorithm through numerical experiments.

Applications such as weather forecasting and personalized medicine demand models that output calibrated probability estimates---those representative of the true likelihood of a prediction. Most models are not calibrated out of the box but are recalibrated by post-processing model outputs. We find in this work that popular recalibration methods like Platt scaling and temperature scaling are (i) less calibrated than reported, and (ii) current techniques cannot estimate how miscalibrated they are. An alternative method, histogram binning, has measurable calibration error but is sample inefficient---it requires O(B/ε^2) samples, compared to O(1/ε^2) for scaling methods, where B is the number of distinct probabilities the model can output. To get the best of both worlds, we introduce the scaling-binning calibrator, which first fits a parametric function to reduce variance and then bins the function values to actually ensure calibration. This requires only O(1/ε^2 + B) samples. Next, we show that we can estimate a model's calibration error more accurately using an estimator from the meteorological community---or equivalently measure its calibration error with fewer samples (O(B) instead of O(B)). We validate our approach with multiclass calibration experiments on CIFAR-10 and ImageNet, where we obtain a 35% lower calibration error than histogram binning and, unlike scaling methods, guarantees on true calibration. In these experiments, we also estimate the calibration error and ECE more accurately than the commonly used plugin estimators. We implement all these methods in a Python library: https://pypi.org/project/uncertainty-calibration

RTK-SLAM systems integrate simultaneous localization and mapping (SLAM) with real-time kinematic (RTK) GNSS positioning, promising both relative consistency and globally referenced coordinates for efficient georeferenced surveying. A critical and underappreciated issue is that the standard evaluation metric, Absolute Trajectory Error (ATE), first fits an optimal rigid-body transformation between the estimated trajectory and reference before computing errors. This so-called SE(3) alignment absorbs global drift and systematic errors, making trajectories appear more accurate than they are in practice, and is unsuitable for evaluating the global accuracy of RTK-SLAM. We present a geodetically referenced dataset and evaluation methodology that expose this gap. A key design principle is that the RTK receiver is used solely as a system input, while ground truth is established independently via a geodetic total station. This separation is absent from all existing datasets, where GNSS typically serves as (part of) the ground truth. The dataset is collected with a handheld RTK-SLAM device, comprising two scenes. We evaluate LiDAR-inertial, visual-inertial, and LiDAR-visual-inertial RTK-SLAM systems alongside standalone RTK, reporting direct global accuracy and SE(3)-aligned relative accuracy to make the gap explicit. Results show that SE(3) alignment can underestimate absolute positioning error by up to 76\%. RTK-SLAM achieves centimeter-level absolute accuracy in open-sky conditions and maintains decimeter-level global accuracy indoors, where standalone RTK degrades to tens of meters. The dataset, calibration files, and evaluation scripts are publicly available at https://rtk-slam-dataset.github.io/.

Video generators are increasingly evaluated as potential world models, which requires them to encode and understand physical laws. We investigate their representation of a fundamental law: gravity. Out-of-the-box video generators consistently generate objects falling at an effectively slower acceleration. However, these physical tests are often confounded by ambiguous metric scale. We first investigate if observed physical errors are artifacts of these ambiguities (e.g., incorrect frame rate assumptions). We find that even temporal rescaling cannot correct the high-variance gravity artifacts. To rigorously isolate the underlying physical representation from these confounds, we introduce a unit-free, two-object protocol that tests the timing ratio t_1^2/t_2^2 = h_1/h_2, a relationship independent of g, focal length, and scale. This relative test reveals violations of Galileo's equivalence principle. We then demonstrate that this physical gap can be partially mitigated with targeted specialization. A lightweight low-rank adaptor fine-tuned on only 100 single-ball clips raises g_{eff} from 1.81,m/s^2 to 6.43,m/s^2 (reaching 65% of terrestrial gravity). This specialist adaptor also generalizes zero-shot to two-ball drops and inclined planes, offering initial evidence that specific physical laws can be corrected with minimal data.

Earth system models suffer from various structural and parametric errors in their representation of nonlinear, multi-scale processes, leading to uncertainties in their long-term projections. The effects of many of these errors (particularly those due to fast physics) can be quantified in short-term simulations, e.g., as differences between the predicted and observed states (analysis increments). With the increase in the availability of high-quality observations and simulations, learning nudging from these increments to correct model errors has become an active research area. However, most studies focus on using neural networks, which while powerful, are hard to interpret, are data-hungry, and poorly generalize out-of-distribution. Here, we show the capabilities of Model Error Discovery with Interpretability and Data Assimilation (MEDIDA), a general, data-efficient framework that uses sparsity-promoting equation-discovery techniques to learn model errors from analysis increments. Using two-layer quasi-geostrophic turbulence as the test case, MEDIDA is shown to successfully discover various linear and nonlinear structural/parametric errors when full observations are available. Discovery from spatially sparse observations is found to require highly accurate interpolation schemes. While NNs have shown success as interpolators in recent studies, here, they are found inadequate due to their inability to accurately represent small scales, a phenomenon known as spectral bias. We show that a general remedy, adding a random Fourier feature layer to the NN, resolves this issue enabling MEDIDA to successfully discover model errors from sparse observations. These promising results suggest that with further development, MEDIDA could be scaled up to models of the Earth system and real observations.

This study concentrates on evaluating the efficacy of Large Language Models (LLMs) in healthcare, with a specific focus on their application in personal anomalous health monitoring. Our research primarily investigates the capabilities of LLMs in interpreting and analyzing physiological data obtained from FDA-approved devices. We conducted an extensive analysis using anomalous physiological data gathered in a simulated low-air-pressure plateau environment. This allowed us to assess the precision and reliability of LLMs in understanding and evaluating users' health status with notable specificity. Our findings reveal that LLMs exhibit exceptional performance in determining medical indicators, including a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of less than 1 beat per minute for heart rate and less than 1% for oxygen saturation (SpO2). Furthermore, the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) for these evaluations remained below 1%, with the overall accuracy of health assessments surpassing 85%. In image analysis tasks, such as interpreting photoplethysmography (PPG) data, our specially adapted GPT models demonstrated remarkable proficiency, achieving less than 1 bpm error in cycle count and 7.28 MAE for heart rate estimation. This study highlights LLMs' dual role as health data analysis tools and pivotal elements in advanced AI health assistants, offering personalized health insights and recommendations within the future health assistant framework.

Reconstructing medical images from partial measurements is an important inverse problem in Computed Tomography (CT) and Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI). Existing solutions based on machine learning typically train a model to directly map measurements to medical images, leveraging a training dataset of paired images and measurements. These measurements are typically synthesized from images using a fixed physical model of the measurement process, which hinders the generalization capability of models to unknown measurement processes. To address this issue, we propose a fully unsupervised technique for inverse problem solving, leveraging the recently introduced score-based generative models. Specifically, we first train a score-based generative model on medical images to capture their prior distribution. Given measurements and a physical model of the measurement process at test time, we introduce a sampling method to reconstruct an image consistent with both the prior and the observed measurements. Our method does not assume a fixed measurement process during training, and can thus be flexibly adapted to different measurement processes at test time. Empirically, we observe comparable or better performance to supervised learning techniques in several medical imaging tasks in CT and MRI, while demonstrating significantly better generalization to unknown measurement processes.

Take three frontier mixture-of-experts models (Alibaba, OpenAI, NVIDIA; 3.6-4.0B active parameters each) and fine-tune them to reason in a low-resource language. On accuracy benchmarks almost nothing happens, and the benchmark itself is noise at this scale: changing only the random seed moves the score by 7.7 points, more than every data and recipe effect we measured. That null is our first result. The real changes live where accuracy cannot see. Base models never think in Greek: 0 of 1,000 reasoning traces, even when the question is Greek, so the model answers correctly while reasoning in a form its user cannot read, audit, or correct. After supervised fine-tuning (SFT), every released checkpoint reasons in the language of the question on ~98% of items, one family at 3x fewer tokens, with judged grammaticality improving on all four models and general ability within a few points of each base: nothing was forgotten, and fluency was gained. We propose six behavioural dimensions that make such changes measurable, each gated to reject any metric that correlates with output length, and we report how our own instruments lied: six failures, each caught by a control. What SFT cannot do is fix its own defects: a quarter of answers skip the requested format, answers leak into the reasoning channel, and an explicit "think in English" is obeyed under half the time. Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards, pre-registered before training, fixes the first two outright (fallback 24% to 2.5%, leak 3.5% to 0.0%, both against a flat random-reward control) and moves the third (+9.1pp), while the Greek reasoning habit survives an accuracy-only gradient untouched. We release five checkpoints. The instruments, the controls and the pre-registration travel to any low-resource language; Greek is the case that let us measure them.

Human shape estimation has become increasingly important both theoretically and practically, for instance, in 3D mesh estimation, distance garment production and computational forensics, to mention just a few examples. As a further specialization, Human Body Dimensions Estimation (HBDE) focuses on estimating human body measurements like shoulder width or chest circumference from images or 3D meshes usually using supervised learning approaches. The main obstacle in this context is the data scarcity problem, as collecting this ground truth requires expensive and difficult procedures. This obstacle can be overcome by obtaining realistic human measurements from 3D human meshes. However, a) there are no well established methods to calculate HBDs from 3D meshes and b) there are no benchmarks to fairly compare results on the HBDE task. Our contribution is twofold. On the one hand, we present a method to calculate right and left arm length, shoulder width, and inseam (crotch height) from 3D meshes with focus on potential medical, virtual try-on and distance tailoring applications. On the other hand, we use four additional body dimensions calculated using recently published methods to assemble a set of eight body dimensions which we use as a supervision signal to our Neural Anthropometer: a convolutional neural network capable of estimating these dimensions. To assess the estimation, we train the Neural Anthropometer with synthetic images of 3D meshes, from which we calculated the HBDs and observed that the network's overall mean estimate error is 20.89 mm (relative error of 2.84\%). The results we present are fully reproducible and establish a fair baseline for research on the task of HBDE, therefore enabling the community with a valuable method.

Leggett and Garg derived inequalities that probe the boundaries of classical and quantum physics by putting limits on the properties that classical objects can have. Historically, it has been suggested that Leggett-Garg inequalities are easily violated by quantum systems undergoing sequences of strong measurements, casting doubt on whether quantum mechanics correctly describes macroscopic objects. Here I show that Leggett-Garg inequalities cannot be violated by any projective measurement. The perceived violation of the inequalities found previously can be traced back to an inappropriate assumption of non-invasive measurability. Surprisingly, weak projective measurements cannot violate the Leggett-Garg inequalities either because even though the quantum system itself is not fully projected via weak measurements, the measurement devices are.

The paper considers a new quantitative-qualitative proximity measure for the features of information objects, where data enters a common information resource from several sources independently. The goal is to determine the possibility of their relation to the same physical object (observation object). The proposed measure accounts for the possibility of differences in individual feature values - both quantitative and qualitative - caused by existing determination errors. To analyze the proximity of quantitative feature values, the author employs a probabilistic measure; for qualitative features, a measure of possibility is used. The paper demonstrates the feasibility of the proposed measure by checking its compliance with the axioms required of any measure. Unlike many known measures, the proposed approach does not require feature value transformation to ensure comparability. The work also proposes several variants of measures to determine the proximity of information objects (IO) based on a group of diverse features.

In this position paper, we argue that the classical evaluation on Natural Language Processing (NLP) tasks using annotated benchmarks is in trouble. The worst kind of data contamination happens when a Large Language Model (LLM) is trained on the test split of a benchmark, and then evaluated in the same benchmark. The extent of the problem is unknown, as it is not straightforward to measure. Contamination causes an overestimation of the performance of a contaminated model in a target benchmark and associated task with respect to their non-contaminated counterparts. The consequences can be very harmful, with wrong scientific conclusions being published while other correct ones are discarded. This position paper defines different levels of data contamination and argues for a community effort, including the development of automatic and semi-automatic measures to detect when data from a benchmark was exposed to a model, and suggestions for flagging papers with conclusions that are compromised by data contamination.

This paper proposes a new metric to measure the calibration error of probabilistic binary classifiers, called test-based calibration error (TCE). TCE incorporates a novel loss function based on a statistical test to examine the extent to which model predictions differ from probabilities estimated from data. It offers (i) a clear interpretation, (ii) a consistent scale that is unaffected by class imbalance, and (iii) an enhanced visual representation with repect to the standard reliability diagram. In addition, we introduce an optimality criterion for the binning procedure of calibration error metrics based on a minimal estimation error of the empirical probabilities. We provide a novel computational algorithm for optimal bins under bin-size constraints. We demonstrate properties of TCE through a range of experiments, including multiple real-world imbalanced datasets and ImageNet 1000.

As machine translation (MT) metrics improve their correlation with human judgement every year, it is crucial to understand the limitations of such metrics at the segment level. Specifically, it is important to investigate metric behaviour when facing accuracy errors in MT because these can have dangerous consequences in certain contexts (e.g., legal, medical). We curate ACES, a translation accuracy challenge set, consisting of 68 phenomena ranging from simple perturbations at the word/character level to more complex errors based on discourse and real-world knowledge. We use ACES to evaluate a wide range of MT metrics including the submissions to the WMT 2022 metrics shared task and perform several analyses leading to general recommendations for metric developers. We recommend: a) combining metrics with different strengths, b) developing metrics that give more weight to the source and less to surface-level overlap with the reference and c) explicitly modelling additional language-specific information beyond what is available via multilingual embeddings.

We present an experimental analysis on the use of a camera-based approach for high-altitude navigation by associating mapped landmarks from a satellite image database to camera images, and by leveraging inertial sensors between camera frames. We evaluate performance of both a sideways-tilted and downward-facing camera on data collected from a World View Enterprises high-altitude balloon with data beginning at an altitude of 33 km and descending to near ground level (4.5 km) with 1.5 hours of flight time. We demonstrate less than 290 meters of average position error over a trajectory of more than 150 kilometers. In addition to showing performance across a range of altitudes, we also demonstrate the robustness of the Terrain Relative Navigation (TRN) method to rapid rotations of the balloon, in some cases exceeding 20 degrees per second, and to camera obstructions caused by both cloud coverage and cords swaying underneath the balloon. Additionally, we evaluate performance on data collected by two cameras inside the capsule of Blue Origin's New Shepard rocket on payload flight NS-23, traveling at speeds up to 880 km/hr, and demonstrate less than 55 meters of average position error.

In the reduced basis method, the evaluation of the a posteriori estimator can become very sensitive to round-off errors. In this note, the origin of the loss of accuracy is revealed, and a solution to this problem is proposed and illustrated on a simple example.

Applying a machine learning model for decision-making in the real world requires to distinguish what the model knows from what it does not. A critical factor in assessing the knowledge of a model is to quantify its predictive uncertainty. Predictive uncertainty is commonly measured by the entropy of the Bayesian model average (BMA) predictive distribution. Yet, the properness of this current measure of predictive uncertainty was recently questioned. We provide new insights regarding those limitations. Our analyses show that the current measure erroneously assumes that the BMA predictive distribution is equivalent to the predictive distribution of the true model that generated the dataset. Consequently, we introduce a theoretically grounded measure to overcome these limitations. We experimentally verify the benefits of our introduced measure of predictive uncertainty. We find that our introduced measure behaves more reasonably in controlled synthetic tasks. Moreover, our evaluations on ImageNet demonstrate that our introduced measure is advantageous in real-world applications utilizing predictive uncertainty.

The Kov\'ats Retention index (RI) is a quantity measured using gas chromatography and commonly used in the identification of chemical structures. Creating libraries of observed RI values is a laborious task, so we explore the use of a deep neural network for predicting RI values from structure for standard semipolar columns. This network generated predictions with a mean absolute error of 15.1 and, in a quantification of the tail of the error distribution, a 95th percentile absolute error of 46.5. Because of the Artificial Intelligence Retention Indices (AIRI) network's accuracy, it was used to predict RI values for the NIST EI-MS spectral libraries. These RI values are used to improve chemical identification methods and the quality of the library. Estimating uncertainty is an important practical need when using prediction models. To quantify the uncertainty of our network for each individual prediction, we used the outputs of an ensemble of 8 networks to calculate a predicted standard deviation for each RI value prediction. This predicted standard deviation was corrected to follow the error between observed and predicted RI values. The Z scores using these predicted standard deviations had a standard deviation of 1.52 and a 95th percentile absolute Z score corresponding to a mean RI value of 42.6.

Research has shown that deep networks tend to be overly optimistic about their predictions, leading to an underestimation of prediction errors. Due to the limited nature of data, existing studies have proposed various methods based on model prediction probabilities to bin the data and evaluate calibration error. We propose a more generalized definition of calibration error called Partitioned Calibration Error (PCE), revealing that the key difference among these calibration error metrics lies in how the data space is partitioned. We put forth an intuitive proposition that an accurate model should be calibrated across any partition, suggesting that the input space partitioning can extend beyond just the partitioning of prediction probabilities, and include partitions directly related to the input. Through semantic-related partitioning functions, we demonstrate that the relationship between model accuracy and calibration lies in the granularity of the partitioning function. This highlights the importance of partitioning criteria for training a calibrated and accurate model. To validate the aforementioned analysis, we propose a method that involves jointly learning a semantic aware grouping function based on deep model features and logits to partition the data space into subsets. Subsequently, a separate calibration function is learned for each subset. Experimental results demonstrate that our approach achieves significant performance improvements across multiple datasets and network architectures, thus highlighting the importance of the partitioning function for calibration.

A large share of day-to-day work in professional domains happens inside PDF files: benefits packets, leases, datasheets, clinical guidelines, construction plans. Benchmarks for document AI have generally measured the required capabilities in isolation: OCR, layout analysis, chart reasoning, table QA, document VQA. A high score on any one of them does not necessarily reveal whether a model can answer a realistic question that someone in the field would actually ask about a specific PDF. GDP_pdf is a benchmark built to measure this directly. It consists of question-document pairs authored by working professionals in ten fields, and a candidate question was kept only when at least two frontier multimodal models failed it in a way that mattered: a wrong answer, missed decisive evidence, or a fabricated claim, rather than a superficial difference such as style. Each item comes with a rubric of atomic criteria, so we can report a graded rubric score as well as a strict task-level pass rate, and each item is tagged against a taxonomy of eleven capabilities in three tiers, spanning text extraction and grounding, table and chart comprehension, cross-referencing, spatial reasoning, and abstention on unsupported queries. We report results for seventeen frontier models on the 100-item benchmark: the best model passes only 30.7% of the items and the worst passes 2%. Most errors trace back to a small set of recurring loss patterns: misaligned tables, misread charts, skipped footnotes and exclusions, miscounted floor-plan symbols, scan noise, and amendments that supersede earlier text.

We present an alternative method of evaluating Quality Estimation systems, which is based on a linguistically-motivated Test Suite. We create a test-set consisting of 14 linguistic error categories and we gather for each of them a set of samples with both correct and erroneous translations. Then, we measure the performance of 5 Quality Estimation systems by checking their ability to distinguish between the correct and the erroneous translations. The detailed results are much more informative about the ability of each system. The fact that different Quality Estimation systems perform differently at various phenomena confirms the usefulness of the Test Suite.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have exhibited strong mathematical reasoning and computational prowess, tackling tasks ranging from basic arithmetic to advanced competition-level problems. However, frequently occurring subtle errors, such as miscalculations or incorrect substitutions, limit the models' full mathematical potential. Existing studies to improve mathematical ability typically involve distilling reasoning skills from stronger LLMs or applying preference learning to step-wise response pairs. Although these methods leverage samples of varying granularity to mitigate reasoning errors, they overlook the frequently occurring subtle errors. A major reason is that sampled preference pairs involve differences unrelated to the errors, which may distract the model from focusing on subtle errors. In this work, we propose a novel preference learning framework called eRror-Injected Self-Editing (RISE), which injects predefined subtle errors into partial tokens of correct solutions to construct hard pairs for error mitigation. In detail, RISE uses the model itself to edit a small number of tokens in the solution, injecting designed subtle errors. Then, pairs composed of self-edited solutions and their corresponding correct ones, along with pairs of correct and incorrect solutions obtained through sampling, are used together for subtle error-aware DPO training. Compared with other preference learning methods, RISE further refines the training objective to focus on predefined errors and their tokens, without requiring fine-grained sampling or preference annotation. Extensive experiments validate the effectiveness of RISE, with preference learning on Qwen2-7B-Instruct yielding notable improvements of 3.0% on GSM8K and 7.9% on MATH.

Peer-evaluation based measures of group research quality such as the UK's Research Assessment Exercise (RAE), which do not employ bibliometric analyses, cannot directly avail of such methods to normalize research impact across disciplines. This is seen as a conspicuous flaw of such exercises and calls have been made to find a remedy. Here a simple, systematic solution is proposed based upon a mathematical model for the relationship between research quality and group quantity. This model manifests both the Matthew effect and a phenomenon akin to the Ringelmann effect and reveals the existence of two critical masses for each academic discipline: a lower value, below which groups are vulnerable, and an upper value beyond which the dependency of quality on quantity reduces and plateaus appear when the critical masses are large. A possible normalization procedure is then to pitch these plateaus at similar levels. We examine the consequences of this procedure at RAE for a multitude of academic disciplines, corresponding to a range of critical masses.

Clinical LLMs are often scaled by increasing model size, context length, retrieval complexity, or inference-time compute, with the implicit expectation that higher accuracy implies safer behavior. This assumption is incomplete in medicine, where a few confident, high-risk, or evidence-contradicting errors can matter more than average benchmark performance. We introduce SaFE-Scale, a framework for measuring how clinical LLM safety changes across model scale, evidence quality, retrieval strategy, context exposure, and inference-time compute. To instantiate this framework, we introduce RadSaFE-200, a Radiology Safety-Focused Evaluation benchmark of 200 multiple-choice questions with clinician-defined clean evidence, conflict evidence, and option-level labels for high-risk error, unsafe answer, and evidence contradiction. We evaluated 34 locally deployed LLMs across six deployment conditions: closed-book prompting (zero-shot), clean evidence, conflict evidence, standard RAG, agentic RAG, and max-context prompting. Clean evidence produced the strongest improvement, increasing mean accuracy from 73.5% to 94.1%, while reducing high-risk error from 12.0% to 2.6%, contradiction from 12.7% to 2.3%, and dangerous overconfidence from 8.0% to 1.6%. Standard RAG and agentic RAG did not reproduce this safety profile: agentic RAG improved accuracy over standard RAG and reduced contradiction, but high-risk error and dangerous overconfidence remained elevated. Max-context prompting increased latency without closing the safety gap, and additional inference-time compute produced only limited gains. Worst-case analysis showed that clinically consequential errors concentrated in a small subset of questions. Clinical LLM safety is therefore not a passive consequence of scaling, but a deployment property shaped by evidence quality, retrieval design, context construction, and collective failure behavior.

Recent research in the field of reflexive metrics have studied the emergence and consequences of evaluation gaps in science. The concept of evaluation gaps captures potential discrepancies between what researchers value about their research, in particular research quality, and what metrics measure. As a result, scientists may experience anomie and adopt innovative ways to cope. These often value quantity over quality and may even compromise research integrity. A consequence of such gaps may therefore be research misconduct and a decrease in research quality. In the language of rational choice theory, an evaluation gap persists if motivational factors arising out of the internal component of an actors situation are incongruent with those arising out of the external components. The aim of this research is therefore to study and compare autonomous and controlled motivations to become an astronomer, to do research in astronomy and to publish scientific papers. Moreover, we study how these different motivational factors affect publication pressure, the experience of organisational justice and the observation of research misconduct. In summary, we find evidence for an evaluation gap and that controlled motivational factors arising from evaluation procedures based on publication record drives up publication pressure, which, in turn, was found to increase the likelihood of perceived frequency of misbehaviour.