Daily Papers

As language models are increasingly deployed as autonomous agents, they must coordinate with others over long horizons in open-ended interactive tasks. Yet existing evaluations rarely test these demands together, instead emphasising single-agent tasks, short interactions, or highly structured multi-agent settings. We introduce alem, a JAX-based benchmark for open-ended multi-agent coordination built on Craftax-like dynamics. Alem embeds procedurally generated coordination tasks, soft specialisation, communication, and controllable coordination difficulty into a long-horizon survival world with exploration, crafting, trading, and combat. We evaluate 13 modern LLMs zero-shot within homogeneous teams, with trained MARL agents as reference points. Current LLM agents remain far from solving alem, averaging only ~6% normalised return, but their failures are not uniform. On the hardest coordination setting, zero-shot Gemini-3.1-Pro-High approaches MARL agents trained for one billion steps, while GPT-5.4-High achieves strong base-task reward but much lower coordination reward. This contrast shows that individual task competence does not imply coordination competence. Ablations show that communication is the largest contributor to coordination, while memory and reasoning help when used to maintain multi-step plans. Overall, our results identify coordination as a distinct bottleneck for frontier LLM agents, separate from single-agent capabilities. Alem makes this bottleneck measurable and provides a controlled testbed for developing agents that communicate, allocate roles, and execute shared plans. Code is available at https://github.com/alem-world/alem-env.

Reinforcement learning (RL) faces a persistent tension: policies that are stable to optimize are often too simple to represent the multimodal action distributions needed for complex control. Gaussian policies provide tractable likelihoods and smooth gradients, but their unimodal form limits expressiveness. Conversely, generative policies based on diffusion or flow matching can model rich multimodal behaviors; however, in online RL, they are frequently unstable due to intractable likelihoods and noisy gradients propagating through deep sampling chains. We address this tension with a key structural principle: decoupling optimization from generation. Building on this insight, we introduce GoRL (Generative Online Reinforcement Learning), a framework that optimizes a tractable latent policy while utilizing a conditional generative decoder to synthesize actions. A two-timescale update schedule enables the latent policy to learn stably while the decoder steadily increases expressiveness, without requiring tractable action likelihoods. Across a range of continuous-control tasks, GoRL consistently outperforms both Gaussian policies and recent generative-policy baselines. Notably, on the HopperStand task, it reaches a normalized return above 870, more than 3 times that of the strongest baseline. These results demonstrate that separating optimization from generation provides a practical path to policies that are both stable and highly expressive.

Recent advancements in Vision Language Models (VLMs) have expanded their capabilities to interactive agent tasks, yet existing benchmarks remain limited to single-agent or text-only environments. In contrast, real-world scenarios often involve multiple agents interacting within rich visual and linguistic contexts, posing challenges with both multimodal observations and strategic interactions. To bridge this gap, we introduce Visual Strategic Bench (VS-Bench), a multimodal benchmark that evaluates VLMs for strategic reasoning and decision-making in multi-agent environments. VS-Bench comprises eight vision-grounded environments spanning cooperative, competitive, and mixed-motive interactions, designed to assess agents' ability to predict others' future moves and optimize for long-term objectives. We consider two complementary evaluation dimensions, including offline evaluation of strategic reasoning by next-action prediction accuracy and online evaluation of decision-making by normalized episode return. Extensive experiments of fourteen leading VLMs reveal a significant gap between current models and optimal performance, with the best models attaining 47.8% prediction accuracy and 24.3% normalized return. We further conduct in-depth analyses on multimodal observations, test-time scaling, social behaviors, and failure cases of VLM agents. By standardizing the evaluation and highlighting the limitations of existing models, we envision VS-Bench as a foundation for future research on strategic multimodal agents. Code and data are available at https://vs-bench.github.io.

We examine the problem of learning sequential tasks from a single visual demonstration. A key challenge arises when demonstrations are temporally misaligned due to variations in timing, differences in embodiment, or inconsistencies in execution. Existing approaches treat imitation as a distribution-matching problem, aligning individual frames between the agent and the demonstration. However, we show that such frame-level matching fails to enforce temporal ordering or ensure consistent progress. Our key insight is that matching should instead be defined at the level of sequences. We propose that perfect matching occurs when one sequence successfully covers all the subgoals in the same order as the other sequence. We present ORCA (ORdered Coverage Alignment), a dense per-timestep reward function that measures the probability of the agent covering demonstration frames in the correct order. On temporally misaligned demonstrations, we show that agents trained with the ORCA reward achieve 4.5x improvement (0.11 rightarrow 0.50 average normalized returns) for Meta-world tasks and 6.6x improvement (6.55 rightarrow 43.3 average returns) for Humanoid-v4 tasks compared to the best frame-level matching algorithms. We also provide empirical analysis showing that ORCA is robust to varying levels of temporal misalignment. Our code is available at https://github.com/portal-cornell/orca/

Normalising Flows are non-parametric statistical models characterised by their dual capabilities of density estimation and generation. This duality requires an inherently invertible architecture. However, the requirement of invertibility imposes constraints on their expressiveness, necessitating a large number of parameters and innovative architectural designs to achieve good results. Whilst flow-based models predominantly rely on neural-network-based transformations for expressive designs, alternative transformation methods have received limited attention. In this work, we present Ferumal flow, a novel kernelised normalising flow paradigm that integrates kernels into the framework. Our results demonstrate that a kernelised flow can yield competitive or superior results compared to neural network-based flows whilst maintaining parameter efficiency. Kernelised flows excel especially in the low-data regime, enabling flexible non-parametric density estimation in applications with sparse data availability.

Training Large Language Models (LLMs) for multi-turn Tool-Integrated Reasoning (TIR) - where models iteratively reason, generate code, and verify through execution - remains challenging for existing reinforcement learning (RL) approaches. Current RL methods, exemplified by Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO), suffer from coarse-grained, trajectory-level rewards that provide insufficient learning signals for complex multi-turn interactions, leading to training stagnation. To address this issue, we propose Group Turn Policy Optimization (GTPO), a novel RL algorithm specifically designed for training LLMs on multi-turn TIR tasks. GTPO introduces three key innovations: (1) turn-level reward assignment that provides fine-grained feedback for individual turns, (2) return-based advantage estimation where normalized discounted returns are calculated as advantages, and (3) self-supervised reward shaping that exploits self-supervision signals from generated code to densify sparse binary outcome-based rewards. Our comprehensive evaluation demonstrates that GTPO outperforms GRPO by 3.0% on average across diverse reasoning benchmarks, establishing its effectiveness for advancing complex mathematical reasoning in the real world.

The prediction of foreign exchange rates, such as the US Dollar (USD) to Bangladeshi Taka (BDT), plays a pivotal role in global financial markets, influencing trade, investments, and economic stability. This study leverages historical USD/BDT exchange rate data from 2018 to 2023, sourced from Yahoo Finance, to develop advanced machine learning models for accurate forecasting. A Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network is employed, achieving an exceptional accuracy of 99.449%, a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 0.9858, and a test loss of 0.8523, significantly outperforming traditional methods like ARIMA (RMSE 1.342). Additionally, a Gradient Boosting Classifier (GBC) is applied for directional prediction, with backtesting on a 10,000 initial capital revealing a 40.82% profitable trade rate, though resulting in a net loss of 20,653.25 over 49 trades. The study analyzes historical trends, showing a decline in BDT/USD rates from 0.012 to 0.009, and incorporates normalized daily returns to capture volatility. These findings highlight the potential of deep learning in forex forecasting, offering traders and policymakers robust tools to mitigate risks. Future work could integrate sentiment analysis and real-time economic indicators to further enhance model adaptability in volatile markets.

Normalised citation counts are routinely used to assess the average impact of research groups or nations. There is controversy over whether confidence intervals for them are theoretically valid or practically useful. In response, this article introduces the concept of a group's underlying research capability to produce impactful research. It then investigates whether confidence intervals could delimit the underlying capability of a group in practice. From 123120 confidence interval comparisons for the average citation impact of the national outputs of ten countries within 36 individual large monodisciplinary journals, moderately fewer than 95% of subsequent indicator values fall within 95% confidence intervals from prior years, with the percentage declining over time. This is consistent with confidence intervals effectively delimiting the research capability of a group, although it does not prove that this is the cause of the results. The results are unaffected by whether internationally collaborative articles are included.

Normalization techniques are a boon for modern deep learning. They let weights converge more quickly with often better generalization performances. It has been argued that the normalization-induced scale invariance among the weights provides an advantageous ground for gradient descent (GD) optimizers: the effective step sizes are automatically reduced over time, stabilizing the overall training procedure. It is often overlooked, however, that the additional introduction of momentum in GD optimizers results in a far more rapid reduction in effective step sizes for scale-invariant weights, a phenomenon that has not yet been studied and may have caused unwanted side effects in the current practice. This is a crucial issue because arguably the vast majority of modern deep neural networks consist of (1) momentum-based GD (e.g. SGD or Adam) and (2) scale-invariant parameters. In this paper, we verify that the widely-adopted combination of the two ingredients lead to the premature decay of effective step sizes and sub-optimal model performances. We propose a simple and effective remedy, SGDP and AdamP: get rid of the radial component, or the norm-increasing direction, at each optimizer step. Because of the scale invariance, this modification only alters the effective step sizes without changing the effective update directions, thus enjoying the original convergence properties of GD optimizers. Given the ubiquity of momentum GD and scale invariance in machine learning, we have evaluated our methods against the baselines on 13 benchmarks. They range from vision tasks like classification (e.g. ImageNet), retrieval (e.g. CUB and SOP), and detection (e.g. COCO) to language modelling (e.g. WikiText) and audio classification (e.g. DCASE) tasks. We verify that our solution brings about uniform gains in those benchmarks. Source code is available at https://github.com/clovaai/AdamP.

Data normalization is one of the most important preprocessing steps when building a machine learning model, especially when the model of interest is a deep neural network. This is because deep neural network optimized with stochastic gradient descent is sensitive to the input variable range and prone to numerical issues. Different than other types of signals, financial time-series often exhibit unique characteristics such as high volatility, non-stationarity and multi-modality that make them challenging to work with, often requiring expert domain knowledge for devising a suitable processing pipeline. In this paper, we propose a novel data-driven normalization method for deep neural networks that handle high-frequency financial time-series. The proposed normalization scheme, which takes into account the bimodal characteristic of financial multivariate time-series, requires no expert knowledge to preprocess a financial time-series since this step is formulated as part of the end-to-end optimization process. Our experiments, conducted with state-of-the-arts neural networks and high-frequency data from two large-scale limit order books coming from the Nordic and US markets, show significant improvements over other normalization techniques in forecasting future stock price dynamics.

Using a large-scale Deep Learning approach applied to a high-frequency database containing billions of electronic market quotes and transactions for US equities, we uncover nonparametric evidence for the existence of a universal and stationary price formation mechanism relating the dynamics of supply and demand for a stock, as revealed through the order book, to subsequent variations in its market price. We assess the model by testing its out-of-sample predictions for the direction of price moves given the history of price and order flow, across a wide range of stocks and time periods. The universal price formation model is shown to exhibit a remarkably stable out-of-sample prediction accuracy across time, for a wide range of stocks from different sectors. Interestingly, these results also hold for stocks which are not part of the training sample, showing that the relations captured by the model are universal and not asset-specific. The universal model --- trained on data from all stocks --- outperforms, in terms of out-of-sample prediction accuracy, asset-specific linear and nonlinear models trained on time series of any given stock, showing that the universal nature of price formation weighs in favour of pooling together financial data from various stocks, rather than designing asset- or sector-specific models as commonly done. Standard data normalizations based on volatility, price level or average spread, or partitioning the training data into sectors or categories such as large/small tick stocks, do not improve training results. On the other hand, inclusion of price and order flow history over many past observations is shown to improve forecasting performance, showing evidence of path-dependence in price dynamics.

Normalization layers have recently experienced a renaissance in the deep reinforcement learning and continual learning literature, with several works highlighting diverse benefits such as improving loss landscape conditioning and combatting overestimation bias. However, normalization brings with it a subtle but important side effect: an equivalence between growth in the norm of the network parameters and decay in the effective learning rate. This becomes problematic in continual learning settings, where the resulting effective learning rate schedule may decay to near zero too quickly relative to the timescale of the learning problem. We propose to make the learning rate schedule explicit with a simple re-parameterization which we call Normalize-and-Project (NaP), which couples the insertion of normalization layers with weight projection, ensuring that the effective learning rate remains constant throughout training. This technique reveals itself as a powerful analytical tool to better understand learning rate schedules in deep reinforcement learning, and as a means of improving robustness to nonstationarity in synthetic plasticity loss benchmarks along with both the single-task and sequential variants of the Arcade Learning Environment. We also show that our approach can be easily applied to popular architectures such as ResNets and transformers while recovering and in some cases even slightly improving the performance of the base model in common stationary benchmarks.

A common statistical task lies in showing asymptotic normality of certain statistics. In many of these situations, classical textbook results on weak convergence theory suffice for the problem at hand. However, there are quite some scenarios where stronger results are needed in order to establish an asymptotic normal approximation uniformly over a family of probability measures. In this note we collect some results in this direction. We restrict ourselves to weak convergence in mathbb R^d with continuous limit measures.

We present weight normalization: a reparameterization of the weight vectors in a neural network that decouples the length of those weight vectors from their direction. By reparameterizing the weights in this way we improve the conditioning of the optimization problem and we speed up convergence of stochastic gradient descent. Our reparameterization is inspired by batch normalization but does not introduce any dependencies between the examples in a minibatch. This means that our method can also be applied successfully to recurrent models such as LSTMs and to noise-sensitive applications such as deep reinforcement learning or generative models, for which batch normalization is less well suited. Although our method is much simpler, it still provides much of the speed-up of full batch normalization. In addition, the computational overhead of our method is lower, permitting more optimization steps to be taken in the same amount of time. We demonstrate the usefulness of our method on applications in supervised image recognition, generative modelling, and deep reinforcement learning.

Online Normalization is a new technique for normalizing the hidden activations of a neural network. Like Batch Normalization, it normalizes the sample dimension. While Online Normalization does not use batches, it is as accurate as Batch Normalization. We resolve a theoretical limitation of Batch Normalization by introducing an unbiased technique for computing the gradient of normalized activations. Online Normalization works with automatic differentiation by adding statistical normalization as a primitive. This technique can be used in cases not covered by some other normalizers, such as recurrent networks, fully connected networks, and networks with activation memory requirements prohibitive for batching. We show its applications to image classification, image segmentation, and language modeling. We present formal proofs and experimental results on ImageNet, CIFAR, and PTB datasets.

In this article, we introduce a novel normalization technique for neural network weight matrices, which we term weight conditioning. This approach aims to narrow the gap between the smallest and largest singular values of the weight matrices, resulting in better-conditioned matrices. The inspiration for this technique partially derives from numerical linear algebra, where well-conditioned matrices are known to facilitate stronger convergence results for iterative solvers. We provide a theoretical foundation demonstrating that our normalization technique smoothens the loss landscape, thereby enhancing convergence of stochastic gradient descent algorithms. Empirically, we validate our normalization across various neural network architectures, including Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs), Vision Transformers (ViT), Neural Radiance Fields (NeRF), and 3D shape modeling. Our findings indicate that our normalization method is not only competitive but also outperforms existing weight normalization techniques from the literature.

Deep Learning has revolutionized vision via convolutional neural networks (CNNs) and natural language processing via recurrent neural networks (RNNs). However, success stories of Deep Learning with standard feed-forward neural networks (FNNs) are rare. FNNs that perform well are typically shallow and, therefore cannot exploit many levels of abstract representations. We introduce self-normalizing neural networks (SNNs) to enable high-level abstract representations. While batch normalization requires explicit normalization, neuron activations of SNNs automatically converge towards zero mean and unit variance. The activation function of SNNs are "scaled exponential linear units" (SELUs), which induce self-normalizing properties. Using the Banach fixed-point theorem, we prove that activations close to zero mean and unit variance that are propagated through many network layers will converge towards zero mean and unit variance -- even under the presence of noise and perturbations. This convergence property of SNNs allows to (1) train deep networks with many layers, (2) employ strong regularization, and (3) to make learning highly robust. Furthermore, for activations not close to unit variance, we prove an upper and lower bound on the variance, thus, vanishing and exploding gradients are impossible. We compared SNNs on (a) 121 tasks from the UCI machine learning repository, on (b) drug discovery benchmarks, and on (c) astronomy tasks with standard FNNs and other machine learning methods such as random forests and support vector machines. SNNs significantly outperformed all competing FNN methods at 121 UCI tasks, outperformed all competing methods at the Tox21 dataset, and set a new record at an astronomy data set. The winning SNN architectures are often very deep. Implementations are available at: github.com/bioinf-jku/SNNs.

Training state-of-the-art, deep neural networks is computationally expensive. One way to reduce the training time is to normalize the activities of the neurons. A recently introduced technique called batch normalization uses the distribution of the summed input to a neuron over a mini-batch of training cases to compute a mean and variance which are then used to normalize the summed input to that neuron on each training case. This significantly reduces the training time in feed-forward neural networks. However, the effect of batch normalization is dependent on the mini-batch size and it is not obvious how to apply it to recurrent neural networks. In this paper, we transpose batch normalization into layer normalization by computing the mean and variance used for normalization from all of the summed inputs to the neurons in a layer on a single training case. Like batch normalization, we also give each neuron its own adaptive bias and gain which are applied after the normalization but before the non-linearity. Unlike batch normalization, layer normalization performs exactly the same computation at training and test times. It is also straightforward to apply to recurrent neural networks by computing the normalization statistics separately at each time step. Layer normalization is very effective at stabilizing the hidden state dynamics in recurrent networks. Empirically, we show that layer normalization can substantially reduce the training time compared with previously published techniques.

Scaling laws predict loss from compute but not how capabilities interact. We measure the coupling between reasoning and truthfulness across 63 base models from 16 families and find a regime change invisible to loss curves: below a family-dependent critical scale N_c, capabilities anticorrelate; above it, they cooperate. N_c approx 3.5B parameters [2.9B, 13.4B] (bootstrap 95% CI), but model size is not the only variable that determines phase. Architecture, data curation, and training recipe each shift N_c independently: curated training eliminated the coupling dip between Qwen generations (0.025 to 0.830 at matched scale), Gemma-4 at 4B achieves coupling 0.871, characteristic of 13B+ standard-trained models, through distillation and architectural innovation, and Phi at 1B matches web-trained coupling at 10B through data curation alone. Width normalization eliminates the anticorrelation across all tested families, supporting an output-projection bottleneck. Internally, 38 of 40 models show zero competing attention heads. A sparse-regression ODE cross-predicts held-out Llama-2 at 5.6% error. The diagnostic requires no model internals -- only public benchmark scores across a model family. The cooperative regime extends to the frontier (r = +0.72, 34 models, 10 labs). Code, data, and an open-source activation-steering tool for any open-weight model are released alongside an interactive dashboard that diagnoses any model's coupling phase, suggests concrete interventions (data curation, width, benchmark rotation), and provides ODE scaling predictions, frontier diagnostics, and eigenstructure analysis: https://zehenlabs.com/cape/.

Partial correlations quantify linear association between two variables adjusting for the influence of the remaining variables. They form the backbone for graphical models and are readily obtained from the inverse of the covariance matrix. For compositional data, the covariance structure is specified from log ratios of variables, so unless we try to "open" the data via a normalization, this implies changes in the definition and interpretation of partial correlations. In the present work, we elucidate how results derived by Aitchison (1986) lead to a natural definition of partial correlation that has a number of advantages over current measures of association. For this, we show that the residuals of log-ratios between a variable with a reference, when adjusting for all remaining variables including the reference, are reference-independent. Since the reference itself can be controlled for, correlations between residuals are defined for the variables directly without the necessity to recur to ratios except when specifying which variables are partialled out. Thus, perhaps surprisingly, partial correlations do not have the problems commonly found with measures of pairwise association on compositional data. They are well-defined between two variables, are properly scaled, and allow for negative association. By design, they are subcompositionally incoherent, but they share this property with conventional partial correlations (where results change when adjusting for the influence of fewer variables). We discuss the equivalence with normalization-based approaches whenever the normalizing variables are controlled for. We also discuss the partial variances and correlations we obtain from a previously studied data set of Roman glass cups.

Normalizing flows are powerful non-parametric statistical models that function as a hybrid between density estimators and generative models. Current learning algorithms for normalizing flows assume that data points are sampled independently, an assumption that is frequently violated in practice, which may lead to erroneous density estimation and data generation. We propose a likelihood objective of normalizing flows incorporating dependencies between the data points, for which we derive a flexible and efficient learning algorithm suitable for different dependency structures. We show that respecting dependencies between observations can improve empirical results on both synthetic and real-world data, and leads to higher statistical power in a downstream application to genome-wide association studies.

This chapter presents a calendar rebalancing approach to portfolios of stocks in the Indian stock market. Ten important sectors of the Indian economy are first selected. For each of these sectors, the top ten stocks are identified based on their free-float market capitalization values. Using the ten stocks in each sector, a sector-specific portfolio is designed. In this study, the historical stock prices are used from January 4, 2021, to September 20, 2023 (NSE Website). The portfolios are designed based on the training data from January 4, 2021 to June 30, 2022. The performances of the portfolios are tested over the period from July 1, 2022, to September 20, 2023. The calendar rebalancing approach presented in the chapter is based on a yearly rebalancing method. However, the method presented is perfectly flexible and can be adapted for weekly or monthly rebalancing. The rebalanced portfolios for the ten sectors are analyzed in detail for their performances. The performance results are not only indicative of the relative performances of the sectors over the training (i.e., in-sample) data and test (out-of-sample) data, but they also reflect the overall effectiveness of the proposed portfolio rebalancing approach.

This article studies the change in the prediction accuracy of a response variable when the number of predictors increases, and all variables follow a multivariate normal distribution. Assuming that the correlations between variables are independently drawn, I show that adding variables leads to globally increasing returns to scale when the mean of the correlation distribution is zero. The speed of learning depends positively on the variance of the correlation distribution. I use simulations to study the more complex case of correlation distributions with a non-zero mean and find a pattern of decreasing returns followed by increasing returns to scale - as long as the variance of correlations is not degenerate, in which case globally decreasing returns emerge. I train a collaborative filtering algorithm using the MovieLens 1M dataset to analyze returns from adding variables in a more realistic setting and find globally increasing returns to scale across 2,000 variables. The results suggest significant scale advantages from additional variables in prediction tasks.

Homophone normalization, where characters that have the same sound in a writing script are mapped to one character, is a pre-processing step applied in Amharic Natural Language Processing (NLP) literature. While this may improve performance reported by automatic metrics, it also results in models that are not able to understand different forms of writing in a single language. Further, there might be impacts in transfer learning, where models trained on normalized data do not generalize well to other languages. In this paper, we experiment with monolingual training and cross-lingual transfer to understand the impacts of normalization on languages that use the Ge'ez script. We then propose a post-inference intervention in which normalization is applied to model predictions instead of training data. With our simple scheme of post-inference normalization, we show that we can achieve an increase in BLEU score of up to 1.03 while preserving language features in training. Our work contributes to the broader discussion on technology-facilitated language change and calls for more language-aware interventions.

Although normalization layers have long been viewed as indispensable components of deep learning architectures, the recent introduction of Dynamic Tanh (DyT) has demonstrated that alternatives are possible. The point-wise function DyT constrains extreme values for stable convergence and reaches normalization-level performance; this work seeks further for function designs that can surpass it. We first study how the intrinsic properties of point-wise functions influence training and performance. Building on these findings, we conduct a large-scale search for a more effective function design. Through this exploration, we introduce Derf(x) = erf(αx + s), where erf(x) is the rescaled Gaussian cumulative distribution function, and identify it as the most performant design. Derf outperforms LayerNorm, RMSNorm, and DyT across a wide range of domains, including vision (image recognition and generation), speech representation, and DNA sequence modeling. Our findings suggest that the performance gains of Derf largely stem from its improved generalization rather than stronger fitting capacity. Its simplicity and stronger performance make Derf a practical choice for normalization-free Transformer architectures.

Batch Normalization is a key component in almost all state-of-the-art image classifiers, but it also introduces practical challenges: it breaks the independence between training examples within a batch, can incur compute and memory overhead, and often results in unexpected bugs. Building on recent theoretical analyses of deep ResNets at initialization, we propose a simple set of analysis tools to characterize signal propagation on the forward pass, and leverage these tools to design highly performant ResNets without activation normalization layers. Crucial to our success is an adapted version of the recently proposed Weight Standardization. Our analysis tools show how this technique preserves the signal in networks with ReLU or Swish activation functions by ensuring that the per-channel activation means do not grow with depth. Across a range of FLOP budgets, our networks attain performance competitive with the state-of-the-art EfficientNets on ImageNet.

Normalizing Flows (NFs) are a class of generative models distinguished by a mathematically invertible architecture, where the forward pass transforms data into a latent space for density estimation, and the reverse pass generates new samples from this space. This characteristic creates an intrinsic synergy between representation learning and data generation. However, the generative quality of standard NFs is limited by poor semantic representations from log-likelihood optimization. To remedy this, we propose a novel alignment strategy that creatively leverages the invertibility of NFs: instead of regularizing the forward pass, we align the intermediate features of the generative (reverse) pass with representations from a powerful vision foundation model, demonstrating superior effectiveness over naive alignment. We also introduce a novel training-free, test-time optimization algorithm for classification, which provides a more intrinsic evaluation of the NF's embedded semantic knowledge. Comprehensive experiments demonstrate that our approach accelerates the training of NFs by over 3.3times, while simultaneously delivering significant improvements in both generative quality and classification accuracy. New state-of-the-art results for NFs are established on ImageNet 64times64 and 256times256. Our code is available at https://github.com/MCG-NJU/FlowBack.

Sports betting's recent federal legalisation in the USA coincides with the golden age of machine learning. If bettors can leverage data to reliably predict the probability of an outcome, they can recognise when the bookmaker's odds are in their favour. As sports betting is a multi-billion dollar industry in the USA alone, identifying such opportunities could be extremely lucrative. Many researchers have applied machine learning to the sports outcome prediction problem, generally using accuracy to evaluate the performance of predictive models. We hypothesise that for the sports betting problem, model calibration is more important than accuracy. To test this hypothesis, we train models on NBA data over several seasons and run betting experiments on a single season, using published odds. We show that using calibration, rather than accuracy, as the basis for model selection leads to greater returns, on average (return on investment of +34.69% versus -35.17%) and in the best case (+36.93% versus +5.56%). These findings suggest that for sports betting (or any probabilistic decision-making problem), calibration is a more important metric than accuracy. Sports bettors who wish to increase profits should therefore select their predictive model based on calibration, rather than accuracy.

The standard normalization method for neural network (NN) models used in Natural Language Processing (NLP) is layer normalization (LN). This is different than batch normalization (BN), which is widely-adopted in Computer Vision. The preferred use of LN in NLP is principally due to the empirical observation that a (naive/vanilla) use of BN leads to significant performance degradation for NLP tasks; however, a thorough understanding of the underlying reasons for this is not always evident. In this paper, we perform a systematic study of NLP transformer models to understand why BN has a poor performance, as compared to LN. We find that the statistics of NLP data across the batch dimension exhibit large fluctuations throughout training. This results in instability, if BN is naively implemented. To address this, we propose Power Normalization (PN), a novel normalization scheme that resolves this issue by (i) relaxing zero-mean normalization in BN, (ii) incorporating a running quadratic mean instead of per batch statistics to stabilize fluctuations, and (iii) using an approximate backpropagation for incorporating the running statistics in the forward pass. We show theoretically, under mild assumptions, that PN leads to a smaller Lipschitz constant for the loss, compared with BN. Furthermore, we prove that the approximate backpropagation scheme leads to bounded gradients. We extensively test PN for transformers on a range of NLP tasks, and we show that it significantly outperforms both LN and BN. In particular, PN outperforms LN by 0.4/0.6 BLEU on IWSLT14/WMT14 and 5.6/3.0 PPL on PTB/WikiText-103. We make our code publicly available at https://github.com/sIncerass/powernorm.

We study distributionally robust expected values under optimal transport distance with a quadratic cost function. In general the duality method, for this computation for the payoff function f, requires the computation of the λc-transform f^{λc}. We show that under the quadratic cost function there exists an intuitive and easily implementable representation of f^{λc}, if f is convex and piecewise linear. We apply this to the robust expected shortfall under the risk-neutral measure of an unhedged call option, from the point of view of the writer, as well as that of a portfolio mixing underlying shares with a call and a put option.

We propose Delta L Normalization, a simple yet effective loss aggregation method tailored to the characteristic of dynamic generation lengths in Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR). Recently, RLVR has demonstrated strong potential in improving the reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs), but a major challenge lies in the large variability of response lengths during training, which leads to high gradient variance and unstable optimization. Although previous methods such as GRPO, DAPO, and Dr. GRPO introduce different loss normalization terms to address this issue, they either produce biased estimates or still suffer from high gradient variance. By analyzing the effect of varying lengths on policy loss both theoretically and empirically, we reformulate the problem as finding a minimum-variance unbiased estimator. Our proposed Delta L Normalization not only provides an unbiased estimate of the true policy loss but also minimizes gradient variance in theory. Extensive experiments show that it consistently achieves superior results across different model sizes, maximum lengths, and tasks. Our code will be made public at https://github.com/zerolllin/Delta-L-Normalization.

We propose a novel neural network architecture, the normalized Transformer (nGPT) with representation learning on the hypersphere. In nGPT, all vectors forming the embeddings, MLP, attention matrices and hidden states are unit norm normalized. The input stream of tokens travels on the surface of a hypersphere, with each layer contributing a displacement towards the target output predictions. These displacements are defined by the MLP and attention blocks, whose vector components also reside on the same hypersphere. Experiments show that nGPT learns much faster, reducing the number of training steps required to achieve the same accuracy by a factor of 4 to 20, depending on the sequence length.

Solid results from Transformers have made them prevailing architectures in various natural language and vision tasks. As a default component in Transformers, Layer Normalization (LN) normalizes activations within each token to boost the robustness. However, LN requires on-the-fly statistics calculation in inference as well as division and square root operations, leading to inefficiency on hardware. What is more, replacing LN with other hardware-efficient normalization schemes (e.g., Batch Normalization) results in inferior performance, even collapse in training. We find that this dilemma is caused by abnormal behaviors of activation statistics, including large fluctuations over iterations and extreme outliers across layers. To tackle these issues, we propose Unified Normalization (UN), which can speed up the inference by being fused with other linear operations and achieve comparable performance on par with LN. UN strives to boost performance by calibrating the activation and gradient statistics with a tailored fluctuation smoothing strategy. Meanwhile, an adaptive outlier filtration strategy is applied to avoid collapse in training whose effectiveness is theoretically proved and experimentally verified in this paper. We demonstrate that UN can be an efficient drop-in alternative to LN by conducting extensive experiments on language and vision tasks. Besides, we evaluate the efficiency of our method on GPU. Transformers equipped with UN enjoy about 31% inference speedup and nearly 18% memory reduction. Code will be released at https://github.com/hikvision-research/Unified-Normalization.

Normalization layers are one of the key building blocks for deep neural networks. Several theoretical studies have shown that batch normalization improves the signal propagation, by avoiding the representations from becoming collinear across the layers. However, results on mean-field theory of batch normalization also conclude that this benefit comes at the expense of exploding gradients in depth. Motivated by these two aspects of batch normalization, in this study we pose the following question: "Can a batch-normalized network keep the optimal signal propagation properties, but avoid exploding gradients?" We answer this question in the affirmative by giving a particular construction of an Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) with linear activations and batch-normalization that provably has bounded gradients at any depth. Based on Weingarten calculus, we develop a rigorous and non-asymptotic theory for this constructed MLP that gives a precise characterization of forward signal propagation, while proving that gradients remain bounded for linearly independent input samples, which holds in most practical settings. Inspired by our theory, we also design an activation shaping scheme that empirically achieves the same properties for certain non-linear activations.

This research presents a framework for quantitative risk management in volatile markets, specifically focusing on expectile-based methodologies applied to the FTSE 100 index. Traditional risk measures such as Value-at-Risk (VaR) have demonstrated significant limitations during periods of market stress, as evidenced during the 2008 financial crisis and subsequent volatile periods. This study develops an advanced expectile-based framework that addresses the shortcomings of conventional quantile-based approaches by providing greater sensitivity to tail losses and improved stability in extreme market conditions. The research employs a dataset spanning two decades of FTSE 100 returns, incorporating periods of high volatility, market crashes, and recovery phases. Our methodology introduces novel mathematical formulations for expectile regression models, enhanced threshold determination techniques using time series analysis, and robust backtesting procedures. The empirical results demonstrate that expectile-based Value-at-Risk (EVaR) consistently outperforms traditional VaR measures across various confidence levels and market conditions. The framework exhibits superior performance during volatile periods, with reduced model risk and enhanced predictive accuracy. Furthermore, the study establishes practical implementation guidelines for financial institutions and provides evidence-based recommendations for regulatory compliance and portfolio management. The findings contribute significantly to the literature on financial risk management and offer practical tools for practitioners dealing with volatile market environments.

Leveraging the models' outputs, specifically the logits, is a common approach to estimating the test accuracy of a pre-trained neural network on out-of-distribution (OOD) samples without requiring access to the corresponding ground truth labels. Despite their ease of implementation and computational efficiency, current logit-based methods are vulnerable to overconfidence issues, leading to prediction bias, especially under the natural shift. In this work, we first study the relationship between logits and generalization performance from the view of low-density separation assumption. Our findings motivate our proposed method MaNo which (1) applies a data-dependent normalization on the logits to reduce prediction bias, and (2) takes the L_p norm of the matrix of normalized logits as the estimation score. Our theoretical analysis highlights the connection between the provided score and the model's uncertainty. We conduct an extensive empirical study on common unsupervised accuracy estimation benchmarks and demonstrate that MaNo achieves state-of-the-art performance across various architectures in the presence of synthetic, natural, or subpopulation shifts.

Survival analysis, or time-to-event modelling, is a classical statistical problem that has garnered a lot of interest for its practical use in epidemiology, demographics or actuarial sciences. Recent advances on the subject from the point of view of machine learning have been concerned with precise per-individual predictions instead of population studies, driven by the rise of individualized medicine. We introduce here a conditional normalizing flow based estimate of the time-to-event density as a way to model highly flexible and individualized conditional survival distributions. We use a novel hierarchical formulation of normalizing flows to enable efficient fitting of flexible conditional distributions without overfitting and show how the normalizing flow formulation can be efficiently adapted to the censored setting. We experimentally validate the proposed approach on a synthetic dataset as well as four open medical datasets and an example of a common financial problem.

This article introduces Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) with Distribution-Valued Outcomes (R3D), extending the standard RDD framework to settings where the outcome is a distribution rather than a scalar. Such settings arise when treatment is assigned at a higher level of aggregation than the outcome-for example, when a subsidy is allocated based on a firm-level revenue cutoff while the outcome of interest is the distribution of employee wages within the firm. Since standard RDD methods cannot accommodate such two-level randomness, I propose a novel approach based on random distributions. The target estimand is a "local average quantile treatment effect", which averages across random quantiles. To estimate this target, I introduce two related approaches: one that extends local polynomial regression to random quantiles and another based on local Fr\'echet regression, a form of functional regression. For both estimators, I establish asymptotic normality and develop uniform, debiased confidence bands together with a data-driven bandwidth selection procedure. Simulations validate these theoretical properties and show existing methods to be biased and inconsistent in this setting. I then apply the proposed methods to study the effects of gubernatorial party control on within-state income distributions in the US, using a close-election design. The results suggest a classic equality-efficiency tradeoff under Democratic governorship, driven by reductions in income at the top of the distribution.

Managing the prediction of metrics in high-frequency financial markets is a challenging task. An efficient way is by monitoring the dynamics of a limit order book to identify the information edge. This paper describes the first publicly available benchmark dataset of high-frequency limit order markets for mid-price prediction. We extracted normalized data representations of time series data for five stocks from the NASDAQ Nordic stock market for a time period of ten consecutive days, leading to a dataset of ~4,000,000 time series samples in total. A day-based anchored cross-validation experimental protocol is also provided that can be used as a benchmark for comparing the performance of state-of-the-art methodologies. Performance of baseline approaches are also provided to facilitate experimental comparisons. We expect that such a large-scale dataset can serve as a testbed for devising novel solutions of expert systems for high-frequency limit order book data analysis.

Normalization layers and activation functions are fundamental components in deep networks and typically co-locate with each other. Here we propose to design them using an automated approach. Instead of designing them separately, we unify them into a single tensor-to-tensor computation graph, and evolve its structure starting from basic mathematical functions. Examples of such mathematical functions are addition, multiplication and statistical moments. The use of low-level mathematical functions, in contrast to the use of high-level modules in mainstream NAS, leads to a highly sparse and large search space which can be challenging for search methods. To address the challenge, we develop efficient rejection protocols to quickly filter out candidate layers that do not work well. We also use multi-objective evolution to optimize each layer's performance across many architectures to prevent overfitting. Our method leads to the discovery of EvoNorms, a set of new normalization-activation layers with novel, and sometimes surprising structures that go beyond existing design patterns. For example, some EvoNorms do not assume that normalization and activation functions must be applied sequentially, nor need to center the feature maps, nor require explicit activation functions. Our experiments show that EvoNorms work well on image classification models including ResNets, MobileNets and EfficientNets but also transfer well to Mask R-CNN with FPN/SpineNet for instance segmentation and to BigGAN for image synthesis, outperforming BatchNorm and GroupNorm based layers in many cases.

Peer-evaluation based measures of group research quality such as the UK's Research Assessment Exercise (RAE), which do not employ bibliometric analyses, cannot directly avail of such methods to normalize research impact across disciplines. This is seen as a conspicuous flaw of such exercises and calls have been made to find a remedy. Here a simple, systematic solution is proposed based upon a mathematical model for the relationship between research quality and group quantity. This model manifests both the Matthew effect and a phenomenon akin to the Ringelmann effect and reveals the existence of two critical masses for each academic discipline: a lower value, below which groups are vulnerable, and an upper value beyond which the dependency of quality on quantity reduces and plateaus appear when the critical masses are large. A possible normalization procedure is then to pitch these plateaus at similar levels. We examine the consequences of this procedure at RAE for a multitude of academic disciplines, corresponding to a range of critical masses.

This paper introduces a novel approach to financial risk analysis that does not rely on traditional price and market data, instead using market news to model assets as distributions over a metric space of risk factors. By representing asset returns as integrals over the scalar field of these risk factors, we derive the covariance structure between asset returns. Utilizing encoder-only language models to embed this news data, we explore the relationships between asset return distributions through the concept of Energy Distance, establishing connections between distributional differences and excess returns co-movements. This data-agnostic approach provides new insights into portfolio diversification, risk management, and the construction of hedging strategies. Our findings have significant implications for both theoretical finance and practical risk management, offering a more robust framework for modelling complex financial systems without depending on conventional market data.

Normalizing flows are a promising tool for modeling probability distributions in physical systems. While state-of-the-art flows accurately approximate distributions and energies, applications in physics additionally require smooth energies to compute forces and higher-order derivatives. Furthermore, such densities are often defined on non-trivial topologies. A recent example are Boltzmann Generators for generating 3D-structures of peptides and small proteins. These generative models leverage the space of internal coordinates (dihedrals, angles, and bonds), which is a product of hypertori and compact intervals. In this work, we introduce a class of smooth mixture transformations working on both compact intervals and hypertori. Mixture transformations employ root-finding methods to invert them in practice, which has so far prevented bi-directional flow training. To this end, we show that parameter gradients and forces of such inverses can be computed from forward evaluations via the inverse function theorem. We demonstrate two advantages of such smooth flows: they allow training by force matching to simulation data and can be used as potentials in molecular dynamics simulations.

Energy-Based Models (EBMs), also known as non-normalized probabilistic models, specify probability density or mass functions up to an unknown normalizing constant. Unlike most other probabilistic models, EBMs do not place a restriction on the tractability of the normalizing constant, thus are more flexible to parameterize and can model a more expressive family of probability distributions. However, the unknown normalizing constant of EBMs makes training particularly difficult. Our goal is to provide a friendly introduction to modern approaches for EBM training. We start by explaining maximum likelihood training with Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), and proceed to elaborate on MCMC-free approaches, including Score Matching (SM) and Noise Constrastive Estimation (NCE). We highlight theoretical connections among these three approaches, and end with a brief survey on alternative training methods, which are still under active research. Our tutorial is targeted at an audience with basic understanding of generative models who want to apply EBMs or start a research project in this direction.

This study presents an analytical approach to sector rotation, leveraging both factor models and fundamental metrics. We initiate with a systematic classification of sectors, followed by an empirical investigation into their returns. Through factor analysis, the paper underscores the significance of momentum and short-term reversion in dictating sectoral shifts. A subsequent in-depth fundamental analysis evaluates metrics such as PE, PB, EV-to-EBITDA, Dividend Yield, among others. Our primary contribution lies in developing a predictive framework based on these fundamental indicators. The constructed models, post rigorous training, exhibit noteworthy predictive capabilities. The findings furnish a nuanced understanding of sector rotation strategies, with implications for asset management and portfolio construction in the financial domain.

Our motivation is to shed light the performance of the widely popular "R-Learner." Like many other methods for estimating conditional average treatment effects (CATEs), R-Learning can be expressed as a weighted pseudo-outcome regression (POR). Previous comparisons of POR techniques have paid careful attention to the choice of pseudo-outcome transformation. However, we argue that the dominant driver of performance is actually the choice of weights. Specifically, we argue that R-Learning implicitly performs an inverse-variance weighted form of POR. These weights stabilize the regression and allow for convenient simplifications of bias terms.

We present a quantum algorithm for portfolio optimization. We discuss the market data input, the processing of such data via quantum operations, and the output of financially relevant results. Given quantum access to the historical record of returns, the algorithm determines the optimal risk-return tradeoff curve and allows one to sample from the optimal portfolio. The algorithm can in principle attain a run time of {rm poly}(log(N)), where N is the size of the historical return dataset. Direct classical algorithms for determining the risk-return curve and other properties of the optimal portfolio take time {rm poly}(N) and we discuss potential quantum speedups in light of the recent works on efficient classical sampling approaches.

Loss Given Default (LGD) modeling faces a fundamental data quality constraint: 90% of available training data consists of proxy estimates based on pre-distress balance sheets rather than actual recovery outcomes from completed bankruptcy proceedings. We demonstrate that this mixture-contaminated training structure causes systematic failure of recursive partitioning methods, with Random Forest achieving negative r-squared (-0.664, worse than predicting the mean) on held-out test data. Information-theoretic approaches based on Shannon entropy and mutual information provide superior generalization, achieving r-squared of 0.191 and RMSE of 0.284 on 1,218 corporate bankruptcies (1980-2023). Analysis reveals that leverage-based features contain 1.510 bits of mutual information while size effects contribute only 0.086 bits, contradicting regulatory assumptions about scale-dependent recovery. These results establish practical guidance for financial institutions deploying LGD models under Basel III requirements when representative outcome data is unavailable at sufficient scale. The findings generalize to medical outcomes research, climate forecasting, and technology reliability-domains where extended observation periods create unavoidable mixture structure in training data.

We focus on the classification problem with a separable dataset, one of the most important and classical problems from machine learning. The standard approach to this task is logistic regression with gradient descent (LR+GD). Recent studies have observed that LR+GD can find a solution with arbitrarily large step sizes, defying conventional optimization theory. Our work investigates this phenomenon and makes three interconnected key observations about LR+GD with large step sizes. First, we find a remarkably simple explanation of why LR+GD with large step sizes solves the classification problem: LR+GD reduces to a batch version of the celebrated perceptron algorithm when the step size gamma to infty. Second, we observe that larger step sizes lead LR+GD to higher logistic losses when it tends to the perceptron algorithm, but larger step sizes also lead to faster convergence to a solution for the classification problem, meaning that logistic loss is an unreliable metric of the proximity to a solution. Surprisingly, high loss values can actually indicate faster convergence. Third, since the convergence rate in terms of loss function values of LR+GD is unreliable, we examine the iteration complexity required by LR+GD with large step sizes to solve the classification problem and prove that this complexity is suboptimal. To address this, we propose a new method, Normalized LR+GD - based on the connection between LR+GD and the perceptron algorithm - with much better theoretical guarantees.

Batch Normalization is a commonly used trick to improve the training of deep neural networks. These neural networks use L2 regularization, also called weight decay, ostensibly to prevent overfitting. However, we show that L2 regularization has no regularizing effect when combined with normalization. Instead, regularization has an influence on the scale of weights, and thereby on the effective learning rate. We investigate this dependence, both in theory, and experimentally. We show that popular optimization methods such as ADAM only partially eliminate the influence of normalization on the learning rate. This leads to a discussion on other ways to mitigate this issue.

Transformer attention is typically implemented using softmax normalization, which enforces attention weights with unit sum normalization. While effective in many settings, this constraint can limit flexibility in controlling attention magnitudes and may contribute to overly concentrated or unstable attention patterns during training. Prior work has explored modifications such as attention sinks or gating mechanisms, but these approaches provide only limited or indirect control over attention reweighting. We propose Affine-Scaled Attention, a simple extension to standard attention that introduces input-dependent scaling and a corresponding bias term applied to softmax-normalized attention weights. This design relaxes the strict normalization constraint while maintaining aggregation of value representations, allowing the model to adjust both the relative distribution and the scale of attention in a controlled manner. We empirically evaluate Affine-Scaled Attention in large-scale language model pretraining across multiple model sizes. Experimental results show consistent improvements in training stability, optimization behavior, and downstream task performance compared to standard softmax attention and attention sink baselines. These findings suggest that modest reweighting of attention outputs provides a practical and effective way to improve attention behavior in Transformer models.

Designing an optimum portfolio that allocates weights to its constituent stocks in a way that achieves the best trade-off between the return and the risk is a challenging research problem. The classical mean-variance theory of portfolio proposed by Markowitz is found to perform sub-optimally on the real-world stock market data since the error in estimation for the expected returns adversely affects the performance of the portfolio. This paper presents three approaches to portfolio design, viz, the minimum risk portfolio, the optimum risk portfolio, and the Eigen portfolio, for seven important sectors of the Indian stock market. The daily historical prices of the stocks are scraped from Yahoo Finance website from January 1, 2016, to December 31, 2020. Three portfolios are built for each of the seven sectors chosen for this study, and the portfolios are analyzed on the training data based on several metrics such as annualized return and risk, weights assigned to the constituent stocks, the correlation heatmaps, and the principal components of the Eigen portfolios. Finally, the optimum risk portfolios and the Eigen portfolios for all sectors are tested on their return over a period of a six-month period. The performances of the portfolios are compared and the portfolio yielding the higher return for each sector is identified.

Systematic Investment Plans (SIPs) are a primary vehicle for retail equity participation in India, yet the impact of their intra-month timing remains underexplored. This study offers a 22-year (2003--2024) comparative analysis of SIP performance in the Nifty 50 index, contrasting the conventional first-trading-day (FTD-SIP) strategy with an alternative aligned to monthly Futures and Options expiry days (EXP-SIP). Using a multi-layered statistical framework -- including non-parametric tests, effect size metrics, and stochastic dominance -- we uncover two key findings. First, EXP-SIPs outperform FTD-SIPs by 0.5--2.5\% annually over short-to-medium-term horizons (1--5 years), with Second-Order Stochastic Dominance (SSD) confirming the EXP-SIP as the preferred choice for all risk-averse investors. Second, we establish boundary conditions for this advantage, showing it decays and becomes economically negligible over longer horizons (10--20 years), where compounding and participation dominate. Additionally, the study challenges the prevalent ``12\% return'' narrative in Indian equity markets, finding that the 20-year pre-tax CAGR for Nifty 50 SIPs is closer to 6.7\%. These findings carry significant implications for investor welfare, financial product design, and transparency in return reporting.

Continual learning entails learning a sequence of tasks and balancing their knowledge appropriately. With limited access to old training samples, much of the current work in deep neural networks has focused on overcoming catastrophic forgetting of old tasks in gradient-based optimization. However, the normalization layers provide an exception, as they are updated interdependently by the gradient and statistics of currently observed training samples, which require specialized strategies to mitigate recency bias. In this work, we focus on the most popular Batch Normalization (BN) and provide an in-depth theoretical analysis of its sub-optimality in continual learning. Our analysis demonstrates the dilemma between balance and adaptation of BN statistics for incremental tasks, which potentially affects training stability and generalization. Targeting on these particular challenges, we propose Adaptive Balance of BN (AdaB^2N), which incorporates appropriately a Bayesian-based strategy to adapt task-wise contributions and a modified momentum to balance BN statistics, corresponding to the training and testing stages. By implementing BN in a continual learning fashion, our approach achieves significant performance gains across a wide range of benchmarks, particularly for the challenging yet realistic online scenarios (e.g., up to 7.68%, 6.86% and 4.26% on Split CIFAR-10, Split CIFAR-100 and Split Mini-ImageNet, respectively). Our code is available at https://github.com/lvyilin/AdaB2N.

Risk parity, also known as equal risk contribution, has recently gained increasing attention as a portfolio allocation method. However, solving portfolio weights must resort to numerical methods as the analytic solution is not available. This study improves two existing iterative methods: the cyclical coordinate descent (CCD) and Newton methods. We enhance the CCD method by simplifying the formulation using a correlation matrix and imposing an additional rescaling step. We also suggest an improved initial guess inspired by the CCD method for the Newton method. Numerical experiments show that the improved CCD method performs the best and is approximately three times faster than the original CCD method, saving more than 40% of the iterations.

We present Natural Gradient Boosting (NGBoost), an algorithm for generic probabilistic prediction via gradient boosting. Typical regression models return a point estimate, conditional on covariates, but probabilistic regression models output a full probability distribution over the outcome space, conditional on the covariates. This allows for predictive uncertainty estimation -- crucial in applications like healthcare and weather forecasting. NGBoost generalizes gradient boosting to probabilistic regression by treating the parameters of the conditional distribution as targets for a multiparameter boosting algorithm. Furthermore, we show how the Natural Gradient is required to correct the training dynamics of our multiparameter boosting approach. NGBoost can be used with any base learner, any family of distributions with continuous parameters, and any scoring rule. NGBoost matches or exceeds the performance of existing methods for probabilistic prediction while offering additional benefits in flexibility, scalability, and usability. An open-source implementation is available at github.com/stanfordmlgroup/ngboost.

Large Language Model (LLM) inference is typically memory-intensive, especially when processing large batch sizes and long sequences, due to the large size of key-value (KV) cache. Vector Quantization (VQ) is recently adopted to alleviate this issue, but we find that the existing approach is susceptible to distribution shift due to its reliance on calibration datasets. To address this limitation, we introduce NSNQuant, a calibration-free Vector Quantization (VQ) technique designed for low-bit compression of the KV cache. By applying a three-step transformation-1) a token-wise normalization (Normalize), 2) a channel-wise centering (Shift), and 3) a second token-wise normalization (Normalize)-with Hadamard transform, NSNQuant effectively aligns the token distribution with the standard normal distribution. This alignment enables robust, calibration-free vector quantization using a single reusable codebook. Extensive experiments show that NSNQuant consistently outperforms prior methods in both 1-bit and 2-bit settings, offering strong generalization and up to 3times throughput gain over full-precision baselines.

Normalization layers in modern large language models (LLMs) consist of a deterministic normalization operation and a learnable scale vector. While the normalization operation has been extensively studied, the scale vector remains poorly understood despite its ubiquitous use. In this work, we present a systematic study of scale vectors in LLMs from the perspectives of expressivity, optimization, and architectural structure. First, we show empirically that although scale vectors constitute only a negligible fraction of model parameters, removing them substantially degrades LLM pre-training. Our theory further shows that, in Pre-Norm architectures, scale vectors do not increase expressivity; instead, they improve optimization through a self-amplifying preconditioning effect on subsequent linear mappings. Second, we investigate the role of weight decay for scale vectors. By distinguishing Input-Norm and Output-Norm layers, we theoretically show that weight decay is beneficial for the former but harmful for the latter, due to their distinct roles in optimization and expressivity. Third, motivated by this understanding, we propose three lightweight and complementary improvements to scale vectors: branch-specific heterogeneity, improved placement around linear mappings, and magnitude-direction reparameterization. Both theory and experiments show that each improvement yields consistent gains. Finally, we combine these improvements into a unified scale-vector strategy and evaluate it through extensive LLM pre-training experiments on dense and mixture-of-experts models ranging from 0.12B to 2B parameters, across multiple optimizers and learning rate schedules, under industrial-scale token budgets. The unified strategy consistently achieves lower terminal loss than well-tuned baselines and exhibits more favorable scaling behavior, while adding negligible parameter and computational overhead.

Many applications involve estimating the mean of multiple binomial outcomes as a common problem -- assessing intergenerational mobility of census tracts, estimating prevalence of infectious diseases across countries, and measuring click-through rates for different demographic groups. The most standard approach is to report the plain average of each outcome. Despite simplicity, the estimates are noisy when the sample sizes or mean parameters are small. In contrast, the Empirical Bayes (EB) methods are able to boost the average accuracy by borrowing information across tasks. Nevertheless, the EB methods require a Bayesian model where the parameters are sampled from a prior distribution which, unlike the commonly-studied Gaussian case, is unidentified due to discreteness of binomial measurements. Even if the prior distribution is known, the computation is difficult when the sample sizes are heterogeneous as there is no simple joint conjugate prior for the sample size and mean parameter. In this paper, we consider the compound decision framework which treats the sample size and mean parameters as fixed quantities. We develop an approximate Stein's Unbiased Risk Estimator (SURE) for the average mean squared error given any class of estimators. For a class of machine learning-assisted linear shrinkage estimators, we establish asymptotic optimality, regret bounds, and valid inference. Unlike existing work, we work with the binomials directly without resorting to Gaussian approximations. This allows us to work with small sample sizes and/or mean parameters in both one-sample and two-sample settings. We demonstrate our approach using three datasets on firm discrimination, education outcomes, and innovation rates.

We study the connection between multicalibration and boosting for squared error regression. First we prove a useful characterization of multicalibration in terms of a ``swap regret'' like condition on squared error. Using this characterization, we give an exceedingly simple algorithm that can be analyzed both as a boosting algorithm for regression and as a multicalibration algorithm for a class H that makes use only of a standard squared error regression oracle for H. We give a weak learning assumption on H that ensures convergence to Bayes optimality without the need to make any realizability assumptions -- giving us an agnostic boosting algorithm for regression. We then show that our weak learning assumption on H is both necessary and sufficient for multicalibration with respect to H to imply Bayes optimality. We also show that if H satisfies our weak learning condition relative to another class C then multicalibration with respect to H implies multicalibration with respect to C. Finally we investigate the empirical performance of our algorithm experimentally using an open source implementation that we make available. Our code repository can be found at https://github.com/Declancharrison/Level-Set-Boosting.

Existing machine learning methods for causal inference usually estimate quantities expressed via the mean of potential outcomes (e.g., average treatment effect). However, such quantities do not capture the full information about the distribution of potential outcomes. In this work, we estimate the density of potential outcomes after interventions from observational data. For this, we propose a novel, fully-parametric deep learning method called Interventional Normalizing Flows. Specifically, we combine two normalizing flows, namely (i) a nuisance flow for estimating nuisance parameters and (ii) a target flow for parametric estimation of the density of potential outcomes. We further develop a tractable optimization objective based on a one-step bias correction for efficient and doubly robust estimation of the target flow parameters. As a result, our Interventional Normalizing Flows offer a properly normalized density estimator. Across various experiments, we demonstrate that our Interventional Normalizing Flows are expressive and highly effective, and scale well with both sample size and high-dimensional confounding. To the best of our knowledge, our Interventional Normalizing Flows are the first proper fully-parametric, deep learning method for density estimation of potential outcomes.

Deep Learning is evolving fast and integrates into various domains. Finance is a challenging field for deep learning, especially in the case of interpretable artificial intelligence (AI). Although classical approaches perform very well with natural language processing, computer vision, and forecasting, they are not perfect for the financial world, in which specialists use different metrics to evaluate model performance. We first introduce financially grounded loss functions derived from key quantitative finance metrics, including the Sharpe ratio, Profit-and-Loss (PnL), and Maximum Draw down. Additionally, we propose turnover regularization, a method that inherently constrains the turnover of generated positions within predefined limits. Our findings demonstrate that the proposed loss functions, in conjunction with turnover regularization, outperform the traditional mean squared error loss for return prediction tasks when evaluated using algorithmic trading metrics. The study shows that financially grounded metrics enhance predictive performance in trading strategies and portfolio optimization.

We introduce the "exponential linear unit" (ELU) which speeds up learning in deep neural networks and leads to higher classification accuracies. Like rectified linear units (ReLUs), leaky ReLUs (LReLUs) and parametrized ReLUs (PReLUs), ELUs alleviate the vanishing gradient problem via the identity for positive values. However, ELUs have improved learning characteristics compared to the units with other activation functions. In contrast to ReLUs, ELUs have negative values which allows them to push mean unit activations closer to zero like batch normalization but with lower computational complexity. Mean shifts toward zero speed up learning by bringing the normal gradient closer to the unit natural gradient because of a reduced bias shift effect. While LReLUs and PReLUs have negative values, too, they do not ensure a noise-robust deactivation state. ELUs saturate to a negative value with smaller inputs and thereby decrease the forward propagated variation and information. Therefore, ELUs code the degree of presence of particular phenomena in the input, while they do not quantitatively model the degree of their absence. In experiments, ELUs lead not only to faster learning, but also to significantly better generalization performance than ReLUs and LReLUs on networks with more than 5 layers. On CIFAR-100 ELUs networks significantly outperform ReLU networks with batch normalization while batch normalization does not improve ELU networks. ELU networks are among the top 10 reported CIFAR-10 results and yield the best published result on CIFAR-100, without resorting to multi-view evaluation or model averaging. On ImageNet, ELU networks considerably speed up learning compared to a ReLU network with the same architecture, obtaining less than 10% classification error for a single crop, single model network.

Learning the tail behavior of a distribution is a notoriously difficult problem. By definition, the number of samples from the tail is small, and deep generative models, such as normalizing flows, tend to concentrate on learning the body of the distribution. In this paper, we focus on improving the ability of normalizing flows to correctly capture the tail behavior and, thus, form more accurate models. We prove that the marginal tailedness of an autoregressive flow can be controlled via the tailedness of the marginals of its base distribution. This theoretical insight leads us to a novel type of flows based on flexible base distributions and data-driven linear layers. An empirical analysis shows that the proposed method improves on the accuracy -- especially on the tails of the distribution -- and is able to generate heavy-tailed data. We demonstrate its application on a weather and climate example, in which capturing the tail behavior is essential.

Paper 1 of this research programme develops a resolution-aware risk-design framework for the simplest event-linked perpetual: a contract whose underlying tracks a single binary prediction-market probability through resolution. The instrument class is broader. Variants span conditional probabilities P(A|B), spreads p^A - p^B, weighted baskets sum w_i p^(i), derivatives on variance or entropy of the probability process, contracts on liquidity itself, perpetual-on-expiring-event roll structures, and funding-only derivatives with no settlement. Each variant inherits some framework components from the single-market binary case and requires its own design adaptations. This paper develops a formal taxonomy of seven pure-form canonical variants beyond the probability-index perpetual of Paper 1, organised along four orthogonal design axes: underlying geometry, temporal structure, settlement structure, and venue composition. The list is not exhaustive; combinations are not treated separately. For each variant we provide a precise payoff definition; an inheritance map identifying which Paper 1 components carry over, are modified, or fail; variant-specific design constraints; microstructure properties; empirical evaluability on the PMXT v2 archive; and limitations. Notable findings: the conditional variant admits a candidate non-portability proposition (denominator instability as the conditioning event becomes improbable); the spread variant requires a three-channel decomposition of resolution risk; the volatility/entropy variant avoids random binary terminal-collapse but introduces estimator-convention and entropy-decay issues; the basket variant requires multi-period jump-aware margin whose aggregation is correlation-dependent. The paper is theoretical primarily; it specifies how demonstrative time series can be constructed and provides evaluability criteria to guide future work.

Regardless of the selected asset class and the level of model complexity (Transformer versus LSTM versus Perceptron/RNN), the GMADL loss function produces superior results than standard MSE-type loss functions and has better numerical properties in the context of optimization than MADL. Better results mean the possibility of achieving a higher risk-weighted return based on buy and sell signals built on forecasts generated by a given theoretical model estimated using the GMADL versus MSE or MADL function. In practice, GMADL solves the problem of selecting the most preferable feature in both classification and regression problems, improving the performance of each estimation. What is important is that, through additional parameterization, GMADL also solves the problem of optimizing investment systems on high-frequency data in such a way that they focus on strategy variants that contain fewer transactions so that transaction costs do not reduce the effectiveness of a given strategy to zero. Moreover, the implementation leverages state-of-the-art machine learning tools, including frameworks for hyperparameter tuning, architecture testing, and walk-forward optimization, ensuring robust and scalable solutions for real-world algorithmic trading.

In this paper we argue for the fundamental importance of the value distribution: the distribution of the random return received by a reinforcement learning agent. This is in contrast to the common approach to reinforcement learning which models the expectation of this return, or value. Although there is an established body of literature studying the value distribution, thus far it has always been used for a specific purpose such as implementing risk-aware behaviour. We begin with theoretical results in both the policy evaluation and control settings, exposing a significant distributional instability in the latter. We then use the distributional perspective to design a new algorithm which applies Bellman's equation to the learning of approximate value distributions. We evaluate our algorithm using the suite of games from the Arcade Learning Environment. We obtain both state-of-the-art results and anecdotal evidence demonstrating the importance of the value distribution in approximate reinforcement learning. Finally, we combine theoretical and empirical evidence to highlight the ways in which the value distribution impacts learning in the approximate setting.

This paper studies the prediction of a target z from a pair of random variables (x,y), where the ground-truth predictor is additive E[z mid x,y] = f_star(x) +g_{star}(y). We study the performance of empirical risk minimization (ERM) over functions f+g, f in F and g in G, fit on a given training distribution, but evaluated on a test distribution which exhibits covariate shift. We show that, when the class F is "simpler" than G (measured, e.g., in terms of its metric entropy), our predictor is more resilient to heterogenous covariate shifts in which the shift in x is much greater than that in y. These results rely on a novel H\"older style inequality for the Dudley integral which may be of independent interest. Moreover, we corroborate our theoretical findings with experiments demonstrating improved resilience to shifts in "simpler" features across numerous domains.

We uncover how SGD interacts with batch normalization and can exhibit undesirable training dynamics such as divergence. More precisely, we study how Single Shuffle (SS) and Random Reshuffle (RR) -- two widely used variants of SGD -- interact surprisingly differently in the presence of batch normalization: RR leads to much more stable evolution of training loss than SS. As a concrete example, for regression using a linear network with batch normalization, we prove that SS and RR converge to distinct global optima that are "distorted" away from gradient descent. Thereafter, for classification we characterize conditions under which training divergence for SS and RR can, and cannot occur. We present explicit constructions to show how SS leads to distorted optima in regression and divergence for classification, whereas RR avoids both distortion and divergence. We validate our results by confirming them empirically in realistic settings, and conclude that the separation between SS and RR used with batch normalization is relevant in practice.

This study develops FinText, a financial word embedding compiled from 15 years of business news archives. The results show that FinText produces substantially more accurate results than general word embeddings based on the gold-standard financial benchmark we introduced. In contrast to well-known econometric models, and over the sample period from 27 July 2007 to 27 January 2022 for 23 NASDAQ stocks, using stock-related news, our simple natural language processing model supported by different word embeddings improves realised volatility forecasts on high volatility days. This improvement in realised volatility forecasting performance switches to normal volatility days when general hot news is used. By utilising SHAP, an Explainable AI method, we also identify and classify key phrases in stock-related and general hot news that moved volatility.

The paper focuses on deep learning semantic search algorithms applied in the HR domain. The aim of the article is developing a novel approach to training a Siamese network to link the skills mentioned in the job ad with the title. It has been shown that the title normalization process can be based either on classification or similarity comparison approaches. While classification algorithms strive to classify a sample into predefined set of categories, similarity search algorithms take a more flexible approach, since they are designed to find samples that are similar to a given query sample, without requiring pre-defined classes and labels. In this article semantic similarity search to find candidates for title normalization has been used. A pre-trained language model has been adapted while teaching it to match titles and skills based on co-occurrence information. For the purpose of this research fifty billion title-descriptions pairs had been collected for training the model and thirty three thousand title-description-normalized title triplets, where normalized job title was picked up manually by job ad creator for testing purposes. As baselines FastText, BERT, SentenceBert and JobBert have been used. As a metric of the accuracy of the designed algorithm is Recall in top one, five and ten model's suggestions. It has been shown that the novel training objective lets it achieve significant improvement in comparison to other generic and specific text encoders. Two settings with treating titles as standalone strings, and with included skills as additional features during inference have been used and the results have been compared in this article. Improvements by 10% and 21.5% have been achieved using VacancySBERT and VacancySBERT (with skills) respectively. The benchmark has been developed as open-source to foster further research in the area.

Low-resource language translation is a challenging but socially valuable NLP task. Building on recent work adapting the Transformer's normalization to this setting, we propose QKNorm, a normalization technique that modifies the attention mechanism to make the softmax function less prone to arbitrary saturation without sacrificing expressivity. Specifically, we apply ell_2 normalization along the head dimension of each query and key matrix prior to multiplying them and then scale up by a learnable parameter instead of dividing by the square root of the embedding dimension. We show improvements averaging 0.928 BLEU over state-of-the-art bilingual benchmarks for 5 low-resource translation pairs from the TED Talks corpus and IWSLT'15.

Layer normalization (LN) is a widely adopted deep learning technique especially in the era of foundation models. Recently, LN has been shown to be surprisingly effective in federated learning (FL) with non-i.i.d. data. However, exactly why and how it works remains mysterious. In this work, we reveal the profound connection between layer normalization and the label shift problem in federated learning. To understand layer normalization better in FL, we identify the key contributing mechanism of normalization methods in FL, called feature normalization (FN), which applies normalization to the latent feature representation before the classifier head. Although LN and FN do not improve expressive power, they control feature collapse and local overfitting to heavily skewed datasets, and thus accelerates global training. Empirically, we show that normalization leads to drastic improvements on standard benchmarks under extreme label shift. Moreover, we conduct extensive ablation studies to understand the critical factors of layer normalization in FL. Our results verify that FN is an essential ingredient inside LN to significantly improve the convergence of FL while remaining robust to learning rate choices, especially under extreme label shift where each client has access to few classes.

Linear attention reduces the quadratic cost of softmax attention to O(T), but its memory state grows as O(T) in Frobenius norm, causing progressive interference between stored associations. We introduce Variational Linear Attention (VLA), which reframes the memory update as an online regularised least-squares problem with an adaptive penalty matrix maintained via the Sherman-Morrison rank-1 formula. We prove that normalising the write direction to unit length gives the recurrence Jacobian spectral norm exactly 1 for all sequence lengths and head dimensions (Proposition 2), and that the state norm is self-limiting under bounded inputs (Proposition 1). Empirically, VLA reduces |S_t|_F by 109times relative to standard linear attention at T{=}1{,}000, achieves near-perfect exact-match accuracy on multi-query associative recall within the effective per-head memory regime (n_pairs < d_h), maintaining substantially higher retrieval performance than DeltaNet and standard linear attention under increasing memory load, and maintains 62\% accuracy at the per-head capacity boundary. A Triton-fused kernel achieves 14times speedup over sequential Python and O(T) scaling, crossing below softmax attention latency at approximately 43\,000 tokens.

We describe a library of mathematical finance built in the Lean 4 proof assistant, on top of Mathlib and the BrownianMotion package. It is broad: more than two hundred sorry-free theorems across eleven areas, from the measure-theoretic foundations of continuous-time stochastic calculus through derivative pricing to applied risk, portfolio, and fixed-income theory, and, to our knowledge, the most comprehensive machine-checked development of mathematical finance to date. Breadth is the setting, not the point. Two things make it more than a catalogue. It reaches into the continuous theory far enough to construct the L2 Itô integral as a bounded linear isometry and to derive, rather than assume, the risk-neutral pricing measure. And it audits its own faithfulness: every result is classified by how its Lean statement relates to the mathematics it claims, and a build-enforced gate pins the axioms each proof actually uses, so a reader can see precisely what has been proved and what has only been proved under added hypotheses. We close with a candid finding: a formal base over classical financial mathematics yields certified unification of known results rather than new financial theory. The contribution is therefore methodological and infrastructural, reusable verified foundations for mathematical finance, together with the faithfulness audit.

We evaluate three simple, normalization-centric changes to improve Transformer training. First, we show that pre-norm residual connections (PreNorm) and smaller initializations enable warmup-free, validation-based training with large learning rates. Second, we propose ell_2 normalization with a single scale parameter (ScaleNorm) for faster training and better performance. Finally, we reaffirm the effectiveness of normalizing word embeddings to a fixed length (FixNorm). On five low-resource translation pairs from TED Talks-based corpora, these changes always converge, giving an average +1.1 BLEU over state-of-the-art bilingual baselines and a new 32.8 BLEU on IWSLT'15 English-Vietnamese. We observe sharper performance curves, more consistent gradient norms, and a linear relationship between activation scaling and decoder depth. Surprisingly, in the high-resource setting (WMT'14 English-German), ScaleNorm and FixNorm remain competitive but PreNorm degrades performance.

Recent studies suggest that with sufficiently wide models, most SGD solutions can, up to permutation, converge into the same basin. This phenomenon, known as the model re-basin regime, has significant implications for model averaging by ensuring the linear mode connectivity. However, current re-basin strategies are ineffective in many scenarios due to a lack of comprehensive understanding of underlying mechanisms. Addressing this gap, this paper provides novel insights into understanding and improving the standard practice. Firstly, we decompose re-normalization into rescaling and reshift, uncovering that rescaling plays a crucial role in re-normalization while re-basin performance is sensitive to shifts in model activation. The finding calls for a more nuanced handling of the activation shift. Secondly, we identify that the merged model suffers from the issue of activation collapse and magnitude collapse. Varying the learning rate, weight decay, and initialization method can mitigate the issues and improve model performance. Lastly, we propose a new perspective to unify the re-basin and pruning, under which a lightweight yet effective post-pruning technique is derived, which can significantly improve the model performance after pruning. Our implementation is available at https://github.com/XingyuQu/rethink-re-basin.

In this work, we develop new optimization algorithms that use approximate second-order information combined with the gradient regularization technique to achieve fast global convergence rates for both convex and non-convex objectives. The key innovation of our analysis is a novel notion called Gradient-Normalized Smoothness, which characterizes the maximum radius of a ball around the current point that yields a good relative approximation of the gradient field. Our theory establishes a natural intrinsic connection between Hessian approximation and the linearization of the gradient. Importantly, Gradient-Normalized Smoothness does not depend on the specific problem class of the objective functions, while effectively translating local information about the gradient field and Hessian approximation into the global behavior of the method. This new concept equips approximate second-order algorithms with universal global convergence guarantees, recovering state-of-the-art rates for functions with H\"older-continuous Hessians and third derivatives, quasi-self-concordant functions, as well as smooth classes in first-order optimization. These rates are achieved automatically and extend to broader classes, such as generalized self-concordant functions. We demonstrate direct applications of our results for global linear rates in logistic regression and softmax problems with approximate Hessians, as well as in non-convex optimization using Fisher and Gauss-Newton approximations.

We present an end-to-end pipeline for estimating stellar parameters from Sloan Digital Sky Survey Data Release 12 spectra using a fully connected multitask neural network with residual blocks, whose hyperparameters are tuned via Bayesian optimization. The preprocessing pipeline includes per-spectrum standardization, RobustScaler normalization of the target variables -- effective temperature T_{eff}, metallicity [Fe/H], and surface gravity log g -- and data augmentation via Gaussian noise injection. On a held-out test set, the model achieved Mean Absolute Errors (MAE) of 59.76~K for T_{eff}, 0.103~dex for [Fe/H], and 0.130~dex for log g. Normalized against the full-scale range of each parameter, these results represent range-normalized errors between 1% and 3%, achieved with a highly efficient model complexity of approximately 540,000 trainable parameters. These results demonstrate that a compact residual multitask architecture, combined with principled signal preprocessing, provides a parameter-efficient solution for nonlinear parameter estimation in large-scale spectral datasets. In particular, the proposed model achieves competitive performance with substantially lower complexity than deeper neural network baselines.

The SIML (abbreviation of Separating Information Maximal Likelihood) method, has been introduced by N. Kunitomo and S. Sato and their collaborators to estimate the integrated volatility of high-frequency data that is assumed to be an It\^o process but with so-called microstructure noise. The SIML estimator turned out to share many properties with the estimator introduced by P. Malliavin and M.E. Mancino. The present paper establishes the consistency and the asymptotic normality under a general sampling scheme but without microstructure noise. Specifically, a fast convergence shown for Malliavin--Mancino estimator by E. Clement and A. Gloter is also established for the SIML estimator.

Continuous normalizing flows (CNFs) construct invertible mappings between an arbitrary complex distribution and an isotropic Gaussian distribution using Neural Ordinary Differential Equations (neural ODEs). It has not been tractable on large datasets due to the incremental complexity of the neural ODE training. Optimal Transport theory has been applied to regularize the dynamics of the ODE to speed up training in recent works. In this paper, a temporal optimization is proposed by optimizing the evolutionary time for forward propagation of the neural ODE training. In this appoach, we optimize the network weights of the CNF alternately with evolutionary time by coordinate descent. Further with temporal regularization, stability of the evolution is ensured. This approach can be used in conjunction with the original regularization approach. We have experimentally demonstrated that the proposed approach can significantly accelerate training without sacrifying performance over baseline models.

Portfolio optimization has been an area that has attracted considerable attention from the financial research community. Designing a profitable portfolio is a challenging task involving precise forecasting of future stock returns and risks. This chapter presents a comparative study of three portfolio design approaches, the mean-variance portfolio (MVP), hierarchical risk parity (HRP)-based portfolio, and autoencoder-based portfolio. These three approaches to portfolio design are applied to the historical prices of stocks chosen from ten thematic sectors listed on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India. The portfolios are designed using the stock price data from January 1, 2018, to December 31, 2021, and their performances are tested on the out-of-sample data from January 1, 2022, to December 31, 2022. Extensive results are analyzed on the performance of the portfolios. It is observed that the performance of the MVP portfolio is the best on the out-of-sample data for the risk-adjusted returns. However, the autoencoder portfolios outperformed their counterparts on annual returns.

This paper explores the pitfalls in evaluating multilingual automatic speech recognition (ASR) models, with a particular focus on Indic language scripts. We investigate the text normalization routine employed by leading ASR models, including OpenAI Whisper, Meta's MMS, Seamless, and Assembly AI's Conformer, and their unintended consequences on performance metrics. Our research reveals that current text normalization practices, while aiming to standardize ASR outputs for fair comparison, by removing inconsistencies such as variations in spelling, punctuation, and special characters, are fundamentally flawed when applied to Indic scripts. Through empirical analysis using text similarity scores and in-depth linguistic examination, we demonstrate that these flaws lead to artificially improved performance metrics for Indic languages. We conclude by proposing a shift towards developing text normalization routines that leverage native linguistic expertise, ensuring more robust and accurate evaluations of multilingual ASR models.

Backtests of cryptocurrency perpetual futures are fragile when they ignore microstructure frictions and reuse evaluation windows during parameter search. We study four liquid perpetuals (BTC/USDT, ETH/USDT, SOL/USDT, AVAX/USDT) and quantify how execution delay, funding, fees, and slippage can inflate reported performance. We introduce AutoQuant, an execution-centric, alpha-agnostic framework for auditable strategy configuration selection. AutoQuant encodes strict T+1 execution semantics and no-look-ahead funding alignment, runs Bayesian optimization under realistic costs, and applies a two-stage double-screening protocol across held-out rolling windows and a cost-sensitivity grid. We show that fee-only and zero-cost backtests can materially overestimate annualized returns relative to a fully costed configuration, and that double screening tends to reduce drawdowns under the same strict semantics even when returns are not higher. A CSCV/PBO diagnostic indicates substantial residual overfitting risk, motivating AutoQuant as validation and governance infrastructure rather than a claim of persistent alpha. Returns are reported for small-account simulations with linear trading costs and without market impact or capacity modeling.

As one of the energy-efficient alternatives of conventional neural networks (CNNs), spiking neural networks (SNNs) have gained more and more interest recently. To train the deep models, some effective batch normalization (BN) techniques are proposed in SNNs. All these BNs are suggested to be used after the convolution layer as usually doing in CNNs. However, the spiking neuron is much more complex with the spatio-temporal dynamics. The regulated data flow after the BN layer will be disturbed again by the membrane potential updating operation before the firing function, i.e., the nonlinear activation. Therefore, we advocate adding another BN layer before the firing function to normalize the membrane potential again, called MPBN. To eliminate the induced time cost of MPBN, we also propose a training-inference-decoupled re-parameterization technique to fold the trained MPBN into the firing threshold. With the re-parameterization technique, the MPBN will not introduce any extra time burden in the inference. Furthermore, the MPBN can also adopt the element-wised form, while these BNs after the convolution layer can only use the channel-wised form. Experimental results show that the proposed MPBN performs well on both popular non-spiking static and neuromorphic datasets. Our code is open-sourced at https://github.com/yfguo91/MPBN{MPBN}.

Domain generalization (DG) is a principal task to evaluate the robustness of computer vision models. Many previous studies have used normalization for DG. In normalization, statistics and normalized features are regarded as style and content, respectively. However, it has a content variation problem when removing style because the boundary between content and style is unclear. This study addresses this problem from the frequency domain perspective, where amplitude and phase are considered as style and content, respectively. First, we verify the quantitative phase variation of normalization through the mathematical derivation of the Fourier transform formula. Then, based on this, we propose a novel normalization method, PCNorm, which eliminates style only as the preserving content through spectral decomposition. Furthermore, we propose advanced PCNorm variants, CCNorm and SCNorm, which adjust the degrees of variations in content and style, respectively. Thus, they can learn domain-agnostic representations for DG. With the normalization methods, we propose ResNet-variant models, DAC-P and DAC-SC, which are robust to the domain gap. The proposed models outperform other recent DG methods. The DAC-SC achieves an average state-of-the-art performance of 65.6% on five datasets: PACS, VLCS, Office-Home, DomainNet, and TerraIncognita.

Recent works on learned index open a new direction for the indexing field. The key insight of the learned index is to approximate the mapping between keys and positions with piece-wise linear functions. Such methods require partitioning key space for a better approximation. Although lots of heuristics are proposed to improve the approximation quality, the bottleneck is that the segmentation overheads could hinder the overall performance. This paper tackles the approximation problem by applying a distribution transformation to the keys before constructing the learned index. A two-stage Normalizing-Flow-based Learned index framework (NFL) is proposed, which first transforms the original complex key distribution into a near-uniform distribution, then builds a learned index leveraging the transformed keys. For effective distribution transformation, we propose a Numerical Normalizing Flow (Numerical NF). Based on the characteristics of the transformed keys, we propose a robust After-Flow Learned Index (AFLI). To validate the performance, comprehensive evaluations are conducted on both synthetic and real-world workloads, which shows that the proposed NFL produces the highest throughput and the lowest tail latency compared to the state-of-the-art learned indexes.

Normalizing Flows (NFs) are widely used in deep generative models for their exact likelihood estimation and efficient sampling. However, they require substantial memory since the latent space matches the input dimension. Multi-scale architectures address this by progressively reducing latent dimensions while preserving reversibility. Existing multi-scale architectures use simple, static channel-wise splitting, limiting expressiveness. To improve this, we introduce a regularized, feature-dependent Shuffle operation and integrate it into vanilla multi-scale architecture. This operation adaptively generates channel-wise weights and shuffles latent variables before splitting them. We observe that such operation guides the variables to evolve in the direction of entropy increase, hence we refer to NFs with the Shuffle operation as Entropy-Informed Weighting Channel Normalizing Flow (EIW-Flow). Extensive experiments on CIFAR-10, CelebA, ImageNet, and LSUN demonstrate that EIW-Flow achieves state-of-the-art density estimation and competitive sample quality for deep generative modeling, with minimal computational overhead.