Daily Papers

Large language models (LLMs) exhibit exceptional performance across a wide range of tasks; however, their token-by-token autoregressive generation process significantly hinders inference speed. Speculative decoding presents a promising draft-then-verify framework that reduces generation latency while maintaining output distribution fidelity. Nevertheless, the draft model introduces additional computational overhead, becoming a performance bottleneck and increasing the time to first token (TTFT). Previous approaches to mitigate draft model overhead have primarily relied on heuristics and generally failed to match the quality of the draft language models. To address these challenges, we propose DuoDecoding, a novel approach that strategically deploys the draft and target models on the CPU and GPU respectively, enabling parallel decoding while preserving draft quality. Our method incorporates a hardware-aware optimal draft budget to minimize idle times and employs dynamic multi-sequence drafting to enhance draft quality. Extensive experiments across seven tasks show that DuoDecoding achieves up to 2.61x speedup in generation latency, while reducing TTFT to 83% of that in conventional speculative decoding. The Code is available at https://github.com/KaiLv69/DuoDecoding.

We consider multi-draft speculative sampling, where the proposal sequences are sampled independently from different draft models. At each step, a token-level draft selection scheme takes a list of valid tokens as input and produces an output token whose distribution matches that of the target model. Previous works have demonstrated that the optimal scheme (which maximizes the probability of accepting one of the input tokens) can be cast as a solution to a linear program. In this work we show that the optimal scheme can be decomposed into a two-step solution: in the first step an importance sampling (IS) type scheme is used to select one intermediate token; in the second step (single-draft) speculative sampling is applied to generate the output token. For the case of two identical draft models we further 1) establish a necessary and sufficient condition on the distributions of the target and draft models for the acceptance probability to equal one and 2) provide an explicit expression for the optimal acceptance probability. Our theoretical analysis also motives a new class of token-level selection scheme based on weighted importance sampling. Our experimental results demonstrate consistent improvements in the achievable block efficiency and token rates over baseline schemes in a number of scenarios.

Long chain-of-thought~(CoT) has become a dominant paradigm for enhancing the reasoning capability of large reasoning models~(LRMs); however, the performance gains often come with a substantial increase in reasoning budget. Recent studies show that existing CoT paradigms tend to induce systematic overthinking, unnecessarily coupling reasoning capability with reasoning cost. Most prior approaches reduce token usage through post hoc techniques such as token compression, truncation, or length penalties, without explicitly addressing the core mechanisms of reasoning. We propose Draft-Thinking, which guides models to first learn a concise draft-style reasoning structure that retains only the critical reasoning steps. Through a progressive curriculum learning, the model stably internalizes this efficient reasoning pattern as its capability scales. Moreover, Draft-Thinking introduces adaptive prompting, which elevates reasoning depth to a flexible, model-selectable behavior. Extensive experiments demonstrate that Draft-Thinking substantially reduces reasoning budget while largely preserving reasoning performance; for example, on MATH500, it achieves an 82.6\% reduction in reasoning budget at the cost of only a 2.6\% performance drop.

Autoregressive sampling from large language models has led to state-of-the-art results in several natural language tasks. However, autoregressive sampling generates tokens one at a time making it slow, and even prohibitive in certain tasks. One way to speed up sampling is speculative decoding: use a small model to sample a draft (block or sequence of tokens), and then score all tokens in the draft by the large language model in parallel. A subset of the tokens in the draft are accepted (and the rest rejected) based on a statistical method to guarantee that the final output follows the distribution of the large model. In this work, we provide a principled understanding of speculative decoding through the lens of optimal transport (OT) with membership cost. This framework can be viewed as an extension of the well-known maximal-coupling problem. This new formulation enables us to generalize the speculative decoding method to allow for a set of k candidates at the token-level, which leads to an improved optimal membership cost. We show that the optimal draft selection algorithm (transport plan) can be computed via linear programming, whose best-known runtime is exponential in k. We then propose a valid draft selection algorithm whose acceptance probability is (1-1/e)-optimal multiplicatively. Moreover, it can be computed in time almost linear with size of domain of a single token. Using this new draft selection algorithm, we develop a new autoregressive sampling algorithm called SpecTr, which provides speedup in decoding while ensuring that there is no quality degradation in the decoded output. We experimentally demonstrate that for state-of-the-art large language models, the proposed approach achieves a wall clock speedup of 2.13X, a further 1.37X speedup over speculative decoding on standard benchmarks.

Deep learning practitioners often operate on a computational and monetary budget. Thus, it is critical to design optimization algorithms that perform well under any budget. The linear learning rate schedule is considered the best budget-aware schedule, as it outperforms most other schedules in the low budget regime. On the other hand, learning rate schedules -- such as the 30-60-90 step schedule -- are known to achieve high performance when the model can be trained for many epochs. Yet, it is often not known a priori whether one's budget will be large or small; thus, the optimal choice of learning rate schedule is made on a case-by-case basis. In this paper, we frame the learning rate schedule selection problem as a combination of i) selecting a profile (i.e., the continuous function that models the learning rate schedule), and ii) choosing a sampling rate (i.e., how frequently the learning rate is updated/sampled from this profile). We propose a novel profile and sampling rate combination called the Reflected Exponential (REX) schedule, which we evaluate across seven different experimental settings with both SGD and Adam optimizers. REX outperforms the linear schedule in the low budget regime, while matching or exceeding the performance of several state-of-the-art learning rate schedules (linear, step, exponential, cosine, step decay on plateau, and OneCycle) in both high and low budget regimes. Furthermore, REX requires no added computation, storage, or hyperparameters.

Cortical neurons are complex, multi-timescale processors wired into recurrent circuits, shaped by long evolutionary pressure under stringent biological constraints. Mainstream machine learning, by contrast, predominantly builds models from extremely simple units, a default inherited from early neural-network theory. We treat this as a normative architectural question. How should one split a fixed parameter budget P between the number of units N, per-unit effective complexity k_e, and per-unit connectivity k_c? What controls the optimal allocation? This calls for a model in which per-unit complexity can be tuned independently of width and connectivity. Accordingly, we introduce the ELM Network, whose recurrent layer is built from Expressive Leaky Memory (ELM) neurons, chosen to mirror functional components of cortical neurons. The architecture allows for individually adjusting N, k_e, and k_c and trains stably across orders of magnitude in scale. We evaluate the model on two qualitatively different sequence benchmarks: the neuromorphic SHD-Adding task and Enwik8 character-level language modeling. Performance improves monotonically along each of the three axes individually. Under a fixed budget, a clear non-trivial optimum emerges in their tradeoff, and larger budgets favor both more and more complex neurons. A closed-form information-theoretic model captures these tradeoffs and attributes the diminishing returns at two ends to: per-neuron signal-to-noise saturation and across-neuron redundancy. A hyperparameter sweep spanning three orders of magnitude in trainable parameters traces a near-Pareto-frontier scaling law consistent with the framework. This suggests that the simple-unit default in ML is not obviously optimal once this tradeoff surface is probed, and offers a normative lens on cortex's reliance on complex spatio-temporal integrators.

LLM inference often generates a batch of candidates for a prompt and selects one via strategies like majority voting or Best-of- N (BoN). For difficult tasks, this single-shot selection often underperforms. Consequently, evaluations commonly report Pass@k: the agent may submit up to k responses, and only the best of them is used when computing regret. Motivated by this, we study inference scaling in the more general Pass@k inference setting, and prove that neither majority voting nor BoN exhibits the desirable scaling with k and the sampling budget N. Combining the advantages of majority voting and BoN, we propose a new inference strategy called Best-of-Majority (BoM), with a pivotal step that restricts the candidates to the responses with high frequency in the N samples before selecting the top-k rewards. We prove that when the sampling budget is N=tildeOmega(C^*), the regret of BoM is O(epsilon_{opt}+epsilon_{mathrm{RM}^2C^*/k}), where C^* is the coverage coefficient, epsilon_{RM} is the estimation error of the reward model, and epsilon_{opt} is the estimation error of reward at the optimal response. We further establish a matching lower bound, certifying that our algorithm is minimax optimal. Beyond optimality, BoM has a key advantage: unlike majority voting and BoN, its performance does not degrade when increasing N. Experimental results of inference on math problems show BoM outperforming both majority voting and BoN.

Recent deep-thinking large language models often reason extensively to improve performance, but such lengthy reasoning is not always desirable, as it incurs excessive inference costs with disproportionate performance gains. Controlling reasoning length without sacrificing performance is therefore important, but remains challenging, especially under tight thinking budgets. We propose budget guidance, a simple yet effective method for steering the reasoning process of LLMs toward a target budget without requiring any LLM fine-tuning. Our approach introduces a lightweight predictor that models a Gamma distribution over the remaining thinking length during next-token generation. This signal is then used to guide generation in a soft, token-level manner, ensuring that the overall reasoning trace adheres to the specified thinking budget. Budget guidance enables natural control of the thinking length, along with significant token efficiency improvements over baseline methods on challenging math benchmarks. For instance, it achieves up to a 26% accuracy gain on the MATH-500 benchmark under tight budgets compared to baseline methods, while maintaining competitive accuracy with only 63% of the thinking tokens used by the full-thinking model. Budget guidance also generalizes to broader task domains and exhibits emergent capabilities, such as estimating question difficulty. The source code is available at: https://github.com/UMass-Embodied-AGI/BudgetGuidance.

Major Internet advertising platforms offer budget pacing tools as a standard service for advertisers to manage their ad campaigns. Given the inherent non-stationarity in an advertiser's value and also competing advertisers' values over time, a commonly used approach is to learn a target expenditure plan that specifies a target spend as a function of time, and then run a controller that tracks this plan. This raises the question: how many historical samples are required to learn a good expenditure plan? We study this question by considering an advertiser repeatedly participating in T second-price auctions, where the tuple of her value and the highest competing bid is drawn from an unknown time-varying distribution. The advertiser seeks to maximize her total utility subject to her budget constraint. Prior work has shown the sufficiency of Tlog T samples per distribution to achieve the optimal O(T)-regret. We dramatically improve this state-of-the-art and show that just one sample per distribution is enough to achieve the near-optimal tilde O(T)-regret, while still being robust to noise in the sampling distributions.

Autoregressive language models demonstrate excellent performance in various scenarios. However, the inference efficiency is limited by its one-step-one-word generation mode, which has become a pressing problem recently as the models become increasingly larger. Speculative decoding employs a "draft and then verify" mechanism to allow multiple tokens to be generated in one step, realizing lossless acceleration. Existing methods mainly adopt fixed heuristic draft structures, which fail to adapt to different situations to maximize the acceptance length during verification. To alleviate this dilemma, we proposed OPT-Tree, an algorithm to construct adaptive and scalable draft trees. It searches the optimal tree structure that maximizes the mathematical expectation of the acceptance length in each decoding step. Experimental results reveal that OPT-Tree outperforms the existing draft structures and achieves a speed-up ratio of up to 3.2 compared with autoregressive decoding. If the draft model is powerful enough and the node budget is sufficient, it can generate more than ten tokens in a single step. Our code is available at https://github.com/Jikai0Wang/OPT-Tree.

LLM search agents increasingly rely on tools at inference time, but their trajectories are often constrained by hard limits on both tool calls and generated tokens. Under such dual budgets, better answers require not only stronger models, but also explicit control over which search action should receive the next budget unit and when the accumulated evidence is sufficient to commit a final answer. We study this problem in multi-hop question answering (QA) and formulate it as two-stage inference-time budget control. At search time, our controller assigns each feasible action a task-level Value-of-Information (VOI) score, defined as an operational estimate of marginal task value per unit budget under the current search state and remaining dual budget, and uses this score to choose among retrieval, decomposition, and answer commitment. After search, a selective evidence-grounded finalizer compares the trajectory answer with a refined candidate and rewrites only when the residual error appears to be a low-risk answer-form error. Across four multi-hop QA benchmarks, three LLM backbones, and four budget levels, the method yields positive aggregate gains over four audited baselines under the same hard dual-budget protocol. Ablations show that search-time budget control, especially budget-dependent penalty, provides the main performance gain, while answer-time control helps mainly when the retrieval path is already adequate. These results suggest that inference-time budget control for LLM search agents should govern both how budget is spent during search and how the final answer is committed.

Speculative decoding accelerates LLM inference by drafting a tree of candidate continuations and verifying it in one target forward. Existing drafters fall into two camps with opposite weaknesses. Autoregressive drafters such as EAGLE-3 preserve dependence along each draft path but call the drafter once per tree depth, making drafting a non-trivial share of per-iteration latency. Parallel drafters cut drafter calls by predicting multiple future positions in one forward, but each position is predicted without seeing the others, producing paths the verifier rejects. In this paper, we propose SpecBlock, a block-iterative drafter that combines path dependence with cheap drafting. Each drafter forward produces K dependent positions and we call this a block. The draft tree grows through repeated block expansions. Two mechanisms explicitly carry path dependence to keep later draft positions accurate. Within each block, a layer-wise shift carries the previous position's hidden state into every decoder layer. Across blocks, each new block can start from any position of the previous block, inheriting its hidden state to extend the path. To spend verifier budget where acceptance is likely, a co-trained rank head replaces the fixed top-k tree by allocating per-position branching during drafting. To avoid training the drafter on prefixes it never produces at inference, a valid-prefix mask drops the loss at later positions once an earlier one is wrong. Beyond static drafting, a cost-aware bandit at deployment uses free verifier feedback to update the drafter selectively, only when the expected throughput gain exceeds the update cost. Experiments show that SpecBlock improves mean speedup by 8-13% over EAGLE-3 at 44-52% of its drafting cost, and cost-aware adaptation extends this lead to 11-19%.

Recent advancements in Large Language Models (LLMs) have leveraged increased test-time computation to enhance reasoning capabilities, a strategy that, while effective, incurs significant latency and resource costs, limiting their applicability in real-world time-constrained or cost-sensitive scenarios. This paper introduces BudgetThinker, a novel framework designed to empower LLMs with budget-aware reasoning, enabling precise control over the length of their thought processes. We propose a methodology that periodically inserts special control tokens during inference to continuously inform the model of its remaining token budget. This approach is coupled with a comprehensive two-stage training pipeline, beginning with Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT) to familiarize the model with budget constraints, followed by a curriculum-based Reinforcement Learning (RL) phase that utilizes a length-aware reward function to optimize for both accuracy and budget adherence. We demonstrate that BudgetThinker significantly surpasses strong baselines in maintaining performance across a variety of reasoning budgets on challenging mathematical benchmarks. Our method provides a scalable and effective solution for developing efficient and controllable LLM reasoning, making advanced models more practical for deployment in resource-constrained and real-time environments.

Post-training of Large Language Models often involves a pipeline of Supervised Finetuning (SFT) followed by Preference Finetuning (PFT) using methods like Direct Preference Optimization. Both stages require annotated data that are very different in structure and costs. We study how to optimally allocate a fixed training data budget between the two stages, through extensive experiments spanning four diverse tasks, multiple model sizes and various data annotation costs. Our findings reveal that just SFT on the base model dominates performance in low-data regimes (<1,000 annotated examples). With larger data-budgets, we observe that a combination of SFT and PFT, often with increasing portions allocated towards preference data yields optimal performance. However, completely eliminating SFT and running PFT directly on the base model yields suboptimal performance, described as the cold start problem on tasks like mathematics. We observe that this is due to the distribution shift arising from using DPO directly on the base model to elicit step-by-step reasoning. This limitation can be effectively addressed by allocating even a small portion (<10%) of the budget to SFT first, resulting in performance improvements of 15-20% on analytical benchmarks like GSM8k. These results provide actionable insights for researchers and practitioners optimizing model development under budget constraints, where high-quality data curation often represents a significant portion of the total costs of model development.

Budget management strategies in repeated auctions have received growing attention in online advertising markets. However, previous work on budget management in online bidding mainly focused on second-price auctions. The rapid shift from second-price auctions to first-price auctions for online ads in recent years has motivated the challenging question of how to bid in repeated first-price auctions while controlling budgets. In this work, we study the problem of learning in repeated first-price auctions with budgets. We design a dual-based algorithm that can achieve a near-optimal O(T) regret with full information feedback where the maximum competing bid is always revealed after each auction. We further consider the setting with one-sided information feedback where only the winning bid is revealed after each auction. We show that our modified algorithm can still achieve an O(T) regret with mild assumptions on the bidder's value distribution. Finally, we complement the theoretical results with numerical experiments to confirm the effectiveness of our budget management policy.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have become an indispensable part of natural language processing tasks. However, autoregressive sampling has become an efficiency bottleneck. Multi-Draft Speculative Decoding (MDSD) is a recent approach where, when generating each token, a small draft model generates multiple drafts, and the target LLM verifies them in parallel, ensuring that the final output conforms to the target model distribution. The two main design choices in MDSD are the draft sampling method and the verification algorithm. For a fixed draft sampling method, the optimal acceptance rate is a solution to an optimal transport problem, but the complexity of this problem makes it difficult to solve for the optimal acceptance rate and measure the gap between existing verification algorithms and the theoretical upper bound. This paper discusses the dual of the optimal transport problem, providing a way to efficiently compute the optimal acceptance rate. For the first time, we measure the theoretical upper bound of MDSD efficiency for vocabulary sizes in the thousands and quantify the gap between existing verification algorithms and this bound. We also compare different draft sampling methods based on their optimal acceptance rates. Our results show that the draft sampling method strongly influences the optimal acceptance rate, with sampling without replacement outperforming sampling with replacement. Additionally, existing verification algorithms do not reach the theoretical upper bound for both without replacement and with replacement sampling. Our findings suggest that carefully designed draft sampling methods can potentially improve the optimal acceptance rate and enable the development of verification algorithms that closely match the theoretical upper bound.

Deployment of autoregressive large language models (LLMs) is costly, and as these models increase in size, the associated costs will become even more considerable. Consequently, different methods have been proposed to accelerate the token generation process and reduce costs. Speculative decoding (SD) is among the most promising approaches to speed up the LLM decoding process by verifying multiple tokens in parallel and using an auxiliary smaller draft model to generate the possible tokens. In SD, usually, one draft model is used to serve a specific target model; however, in practice, LLMs are diverse, and we might need to deal with many target models or more than one target model simultaneously. In this scenario, it is not clear which draft model should be used for which target model, and searching among different draft models or training customized draft models can further increase deployment costs. In this paper, we first introduce a novel multi-target scenario for the deployment of draft models for faster inference. Then, we present a novel, more efficient sorted speculative decoding mechanism that outperforms regular baselines in multi-target settings. We evaluated our method on Spec-Bench in different settings, including base models such as Vicuna 7B, 13B, and LLama Chat 70B. Our results suggest that our draft models perform better than baselines for multiple target models at the same time.

While agents are increasingly spending more resources, today agent cost is mostly measured only after execution. A Budget-Aware Agent (BAGEN) should treat budget as an active control signal, rather than a passive cost metric. We first systematically define budget estimation as internal budgets (from agent computation) and external budgets (from agent actions). We then formalize budget-awareness as progressive interval estimation: at each step of a plan, an agent should predict an upper and lower bound on remaining budget, and alert when completion is unlikely. Scoring with a rollout-replay protocol, we find consistent failure patterns on four environments and five frontier agents: (1) strong agents do not necessarily have strong budget-awareness, with correlation r=0.35. (2) frontier models are consistently over-optimistic, continue spending on tasks that are unlikely to succeed, instead of alerting the user early. (3) budget-aware signal is actionable and trainable. Early stop saves 28-64% tokens on failed trajectories, and SFT+RL strengthens early stop and alert behavior. (4) precise interval calibration remains challenging, with interval coverage capping at 47% after SFT+RL. Project page: https://ragen-ai.github.io/bagen/

Assigning one of K options to each of N groups under a total cost budget is a recurring problem in efficient AI, including mixed-precision quantization, non-uniform pruning, and expert selection. The objective, typically model loss, depends jointly on all assignments and does not decompose across groups, preventing combinatorial solvers from directly optimizing the true objective and forcing reliance on proxy formulations. Methods such as evolutionary search evaluate the actual loss but lack gradient information, while penalty-based approaches enforce the budget only approximately and often require extensive hyperparameter tuning. We present a new approach by showing that, under softmax relaxation, the budget constraint defines a smooth Riemannian manifold in logit space with unusually simple geometry. The normal vector admits a closed-form expression, shifting logits along the cost vector changes expected cost monotonically, and vector transport reduces to a single inner product. Building on these properties, we propose Riemannian Constrained Optimization (RCO), which augments a standard Adam step with tangent projection, binary-search retraction, and momentum transport. Combined with Gumbel straight-through estimation and budget-constrained dynamic programming for discrete feasibility, RCO enables first-order optimization of the actual loss under exact budget enforcement without introducing constraint-specific hyperparameters. Across both synthetic benchmarks and realistic LLM compression settings, RCO matches or exceeds state-of-the-art methods while often requiring substantially less wall-clock time. Source code is available at https://github.com/IST-DASLab/RCO.

The majority of online display ads are served through real-time bidding (RTB) --- each ad display impression is auctioned off in real-time when it is just being generated from a user visit. To place an ad automatically and optimally, it is critical for advertisers to devise a learning algorithm to cleverly bid an ad impression in real-time. Most previous works consider the bid decision as a static optimization problem of either treating the value of each impression independently or setting a bid price to each segment of ad volume. However, the bidding for a given ad campaign would repeatedly happen during its life span before the budget runs out. As such, each bid is strategically correlated by the constrained budget and the overall effectiveness of the campaign (e.g., the rewards from generated clicks), which is only observed after the campaign has completed. Thus, it is of great interest to devise an optimal bidding strategy sequentially so that the campaign budget can be dynamically allocated across all the available impressions on the basis of both the immediate and future rewards. In this paper, we formulate the bid decision process as a reinforcement learning problem, where the state space is represented by the auction information and the campaign's real-time parameters, while an action is the bid price to set. By modeling the state transition via auction competition, we build a Markov Decision Process framework for learning the optimal bidding policy to optimize the advertising performance in the dynamic real-time bidding environment. Furthermore, the scalability problem from the large real-world auction volume and campaign budget is well handled by state value approximation using neural networks.

Large language models (LLMs) can achieve strong reasoning performance with sufficient computation, but they do not inherently know how much computation a task requires. We study budgeted inference-time reasoning for multiple tasks under a strict global token constraint and formalize it as a Ordered Stochastic Multiple-Choice Knapsack Problem(OS-MCKP). This perspective highlights a meta-cognitive requirement -- anticipating task difficulty, estimating return over investment (ROI), and allocating computation strategically. We propose ROI-Reasoning, a two-stage framework that endows LLMs with intrinsic, budget-aware rationality. In the first stage, Meta-Cognitive Fine-Tuning teaches models to predict reasoning cost and expected utility before generation, enabling explicit solve-or-skip decisions. Next, Rationality-Aware Reinforcement Learning optimizes sequential decision making under a hard token budget, allowing models to learn long-horizon allocation strategies. Across budgeted mathematical reasoning benchmarks, ROI-Reasoning consistently improves overall score while substantially reducing regret under tight computation budgets.

Speculative decoding (SD) accelerates autoregressive Large Language Models (LLMs) by drafting multiple tokens and verifying them in parallel, but it faces a scaling limitation: increasing the draft budget improves speed only when acceptance remains high and drafting overhead stays low. This ceiling has been difficult to break because prior head-based SD methods face a causality-efficiency dilemma. Autoregressive drafters produce path-conditioned candidates that are effective for tree speculative decoding with higher acceptance length, but their drafting cost grows with tree depth. Bidirectional block-diffusion drafters generate all positions in one pass, but their branch-agnostic marginals can form individually plausible yet mutually inconsistent trees, wasting budget and reducing acceptance. We propose JetSpec, a head-based SD framework that combines one-forward drafting efficiency with branch-wise causal conditioning. JetSpec trains a causal parallel draft head over fused hidden states from the frozen target model, producing candidate trees whose scores align with the target model's autoregressive factorization. This enables JetSpec to convert larger draft budgets into longer accepted prefixes and higher end-to-end speedup. Across math, coding, and chat benchmarks on dense and MoE Qwen3 models, JetSpec consistently outperforms bidirectional-head and tree-based SD baselines. On H100 GPUs, JetSpec achieves up to 9.64x speedup on MATH-500 and 4.58x on open-ended conversational workloads, with further latency gains demonstrated through vLLM integration under realistic serving loads. Our code and models are available at https://github.com/hao-ai-lab/JetSpec.

A cheap swarm of unreliable agents can be steered to a correct consensus by a few strong, expensive "oracle" correctors. We ask how much one must spend, and where to place the oracles. We model the swarm as a consensus on a graph in which each oracle pins one node toward the truth at a cost-coupled, concave strength, and measure quality by the coherence H(R)=tr M(R)^{-1}. Our first result is that H stays submodular (each added oracle helps less than the last) even when the oracles differ in strength, so a cost-benefit greedy comes within 1-1/e of the best placement at any budget. Inverting the budget gives the budget-correctness frontier B*(eps), the least spend that guarantees an eps-correct consensus: closed-form on the complete graph, and a minimal oracle count k* when oracles cost the same. Whether a budget then buys a few strong oracles or many medium onese curvature of the cost-quality law: diminishing returns favour spreadsharply increasion. Measured onthe Qwen3 ladder (0.6-32B), the law is concave for math verificatio convex foremergent code tracing, so the verdict is genuinely task-dependent.https://github.com/YehudaItkin/budgeted-oracle-placemen

Inference-time scaling has emerged as a critical avenue for enhancing Large Language Models' performance, yet real-world deployment is constrained by strict computational budgets. In this work, we formulate inference budget allocation as a global constrained optimization problem governed by economic principles. By modeling per-query reasoning utility with a shifted-surge function, we derive an optimal allocation policy based on a global shadow price that equilibrates marginal utility under resource scarcity. Based on this theory, we propose Constrained Latent-utility Equilibrium Allocation for Reasoning (CLEAR). It performs rational abandonment and reallocates resources from insolvent queries to solvable queries near their emergence thresholds. Extensive experiments on several reasoning tasks with different traffic streams demonstrate that CLEAR significantly improves the Pareto frontier of total token cost versus mean accuracy. In resource-scarce regimes, CLEAR achieves up to a 3x improvement in global accuracy compared to uniform allocation.

Memory is increasingly central to Large Language Model (LLM) agents operating beyond a single context window, yet most existing systems rely on offline, query-agnostic memory construction that can be inefficient and may discard query-critical information. Although runtime memory utilization is a natural alternative, prior work often incurs substantial overhead and offers limited explicit control over the performance-cost trade-off. In this work, we present BudgetMem, a runtime agent memory framework for explicit, query-aware performance-cost control. BudgetMem structures memory processing as a set of memory modules, each offered in three budget tiers (i.e., Low/Mid/High). A lightweight router performs budget-tier routing across modules to balance task performance and memory construction cost, which is implemented as a compact neural policy trained with reinforcement learning. Using BudgetMem as a unified testbed, we study three complementary strategies for realizing budget tiers: implementation (method complexity), reasoning (inference behavior), and capacity (module model size). Across LoCoMo, LongMemEval, and HotpotQA, BudgetMem surpasses strong baselines when performance is prioritized (i.e., high-budget setting), and delivers better accuracy-cost frontiers under tighter budgets. Moreover, our analysis disentangles the strengths and weaknesses of different tiering strategies, clarifying when each axis delivers the most favorable trade-offs under varying budget regimes.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have achieved remarkable success in complex reasoning tasks, but their inference remains computationally inefficient. We observe a common failure mode in many prevalent LLMs, overthinking, where models generate verbose and tangential reasoning traces even for simple queries. Recent works have tried to mitigate this by enforcing fixed token budgets, however, this can lead to underthinking, especially on harder problems. Through empirical analysis, we identify that this inefficiency often stems from unclear problem-solving strategies. To formalize this, we develop a theoretical model, BBAM (Bayesian Budget Allocation Model), which models reasoning as a sequence of sub-questions with varying uncertainty, and introduce the E^3 metric to capture the trade-off between correctness and computation efficiency. Building on theoretical results from BBAM, we propose Plan-and-Budget, a model-agnostic, test-time framework that decomposes complex queries into sub-questions and allocates token budgets based on estimated complexity using adaptive scheduling. Plan-and-Budget improves reasoning efficiency across a range of tasks and models, achieving up to +70% accuracy gains, -39% token reduction, and +187.5% improvement in E^3. Notably, it elevates a smaller model (DS-Qwen-32B) to match the efficiency of a larger model (DS-LLaMA-70B)-demonstrating Plan-and-Budget's ability to close performance gaps without retraining. Our code is available at anonymous.4open.science/r/P-and-B-6513/.

As large language models (LLMs) evolve into autonomous agents that execute long-horizon workflows, invoking a high-capability model at every step becomes economically unsustainable. While model routing is effective for single-turn queries, agentic routing is a sequential, path-dependent problem: early mistakes compound, feedback is often at the end of the episode, and deployments often demand strict per-task spending limits. We propose Budget-Aware Agentic Routing, which selects between a cheap and an expensive model at each step to optimize the cost--success frontier and to operate under strict per-task budgets. We propose Boundary-Guided Training, which leverages two boundary policies (always-small vs.\ always-large) to build a difficulty taxonomy and to anchor learning under sparse rewards. Our approach warms start with boundary-guided SFT data synthesis via stratified sampling of cost-efficient trajectories, then applies Boundary-Guided Policy Optimization (BoPO), combining boundary-relative rewards with a reference-guided advantage to avoid degenerate cheap-failure solutions. Experiment results show that our method improves the efficiency frontier, matching strong routing baselines at substantially lower cost while demonstrating generalization to strict inference-time budget constraints. Overall, our work establishes a foundational framework for agentic routing, shifting the paradigm from static model selection to dynamic, budget-aware sequential decision-making.

In budget-limited multi-armed bandit (MAB) problems, the learner's actions are costly and constrained by a fixed budget. Consequently, an optimal exploitation policy may not be to pull the optimal arm repeatedly, as is the case in other variants of MAB, but rather to pull the sequence of different arms that maximises the agent's total reward within the budget. This difference from existing MABs means that new approaches to maximising the total reward are required. Given this, we develop two pulling policies, namely: (i) KUBE; and (ii) fractional KUBE. Whereas the former provides better performance up to 40% in our experimental settings, the latter is computationally less expensive. We also prove logarithmic upper bounds for the regret of both policies, and show that these bounds are asymptotically optimal (i.e. they only differ from the best possible regret by a constant factor).

Large Language Models (LLMs) can self-improve through reinforcement learning, where they generate trajectories to explore and discover better solutions. However, this exploration process is computationally expensive, often forcing current methods to assign limited exploration budgets to each task. This uniform allocation creates problematic edge cases: easy tasks consistently succeed while difficult tasks consistently fail, both producing zero gradients during training updates for the widely used Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO). We address this problem from the lens of exploration budget allocation. Viewing each task's exploration as an "item" with a distinct "value" and "cost", we establish a connection to the classical knapsack problem. This formulation allows us to derive an optimal assignment rule that adaptively distributes resources based on the model's current learning status. When applied to GRPO, our method increases the effective ratio of non-zero policy gradients by 20-40% during training. Acting as a computational "free lunch", our approach could reallocate exploration budgets from tasks where learning is saturated to those where it is most impactful. This enables significantly larger budgets (e.g., 93 rollouts) for especially challenging problems, which would be computationally prohibitive under a uniform allocation. These improvements translate to meaningful gains on mathematical reasoning benchmarks, with average improvements of 2-4 points and peak gains of 9 points on specific tasks. Notably, achieving comparable performance with traditional homogeneous allocation would require about 2x the computational resources.

We study best arm identification (BAI) in linear bandits in the fixed-budget regime under differential privacy constraints, when the arm rewards are supported on the unit interval. Given a finite budget T and a privacy parameter varepsilon>0, the goal is to minimise the error probability in finding the arm with the largest mean after T sampling rounds, subject to the constraint that the policy of the decision maker satisfies a certain {\em varepsilon-differential privacy} (varepsilon-DP) constraint. We construct a policy satisfying the varepsilon-DP constraint (called {\sc DP-BAI}) by proposing the principle of {\em maximum absolute determinants}, and derive an upper bound on its error probability. Furthermore, we derive a minimax lower bound on the error probability, and demonstrate that the lower and the upper bounds decay exponentially in T, with exponents in the two bounds matching order-wise in (a) the sub-optimality gaps of the arms, (b) varepsilon, and (c) the problem complexity that is expressible as the sum of two terms, one characterising the complexity of standard fixed-budget BAI (without privacy constraints), and the other accounting for the varepsilon-DP constraint. Additionally, we present some auxiliary results that contribute to the derivation of the lower bound on the error probability. These results, we posit, may be of independent interest and could prove instrumental in proving lower bounds on error probabilities in several other bandit problems. Whereas prior works provide results for BAI in the fixed-budget regime without privacy constraints or in the fixed-confidence regime with privacy constraints, our work fills the gap in the literature by providing the results for BAI in the fixed-budget regime under the varepsilon-DP constraint.

In pursuit of participatory budgeting (PB) outcomes with broader fairness guarantees, we initiate the study of lotteries over discrete PB outcomes. As the projects have heterogeneous costs, the amount spent may not be equal ex ante and ex post. To address this, we develop a technique to bound the amount by which the ex-post spend differs from the ex-ante spend -- the property is termed budget balanced up to one project (BB1). With respect to fairness, we take a best-of-both-worlds perspective, seeking outcomes that are both ex-ante and ex-post fair. Towards this goal, we initiate a study of ex-ante fairness properties in PB, including Individual Fair Share (IFS), Unanimous Fair Share (UFS) and their stronger variants, as well as Group Fair Share (GFS). We show several incompatibility results between these ex-ante fairness notions and existing ex-post concepts based on justified representation. One of our main contributions is a randomized algorithm which simultaneously satisfies ex-ante Strong UFS, ex-post full justified representation (FJR) and ex-post BB1 for PB with binary utilities.

Scaling test-time compute is crucial for enhancing the reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs). Existing approaches typically employ reinforcement learning (RL) to maximize a verifiable reward obtained at the end of reasoning traces. However, such methods optimize only the final performance under a large and fixed token budget, which hinders efficiency in both training and deployment. In this work, we present a novel framework, AnytimeReasoner, to optimize anytime reasoning performance, which aims to improve token efficiency and the flexibility of reasoning under varying token budget constraints. To achieve this, we truncate the complete thinking process to fit within sampled token budgets from a prior distribution, compelling the model to summarize the optimal answer for each truncated thinking for verification. This introduces verifiable dense rewards into the reasoning process, facilitating more effective credit assignment in RL optimization. We then optimize the thinking and summary policies in a decoupled manner to maximize the cumulative reward. Additionally, we introduce a novel variance reduction technique, Budget Relative Policy Optimization (BRPO), to enhance the robustness and efficiency of the learning process when reinforcing the thinking policy. Empirical results in mathematical reasoning tasks demonstrate that our method consistently outperforms GRPO across all thinking budgets under various prior distributions, enhancing both training and token efficiency.

Reinforcement learning (RL) is the dominant paradigm for post-training large language models. However, in the online, on-policy setting, rollout generation dominates the computational cost of training. Group-based policy optimization methods compute advantages from multiple rollouts per prompt, yet they indiscriminately allocate budget to prompts with collapsed reward distributions, wasting expensive rollouts on negligible learning signals. We demonstrate that group-based updates are most effective in regimes of high reward variance. Since the policy evolves throughout training, prompt informativeness must be estimated online rather than precomputed, but exhaustively evaluating every prompt is computationally prohibitive. We introduce Pilot-Commit, a budget-aware rollout allocation framework for group-based RL post-training. Pilot-Commit decouples prompt evaluation from exploitation: a pilot stage estimates per-prompt informativeness using a fraction of the budget, and the remaining rollouts are allocated to high-leverage prompts while low-signal prompts are skipped. Across multiple math reasoning benchmarks and model scales from 1.5B to 14B parameters, Pilot-Commit matches baseline accuracy with significantly lower sampling costs, reaching target accuracy up to 1.9times faster than GRPO and 4.0times faster than DAPO in cumulative rollouts.

We consider the linear contextual bandit problem with resource consumption, in addition to reward generation. In each round, the outcome of pulling an arm is a reward as well as a vector of resource consumptions. The expected values of these outcomes depend linearly on the context of that arm. The budget/capacity constraints require that the total consumption doesn't exceed the budget for each resource. The objective is once again to maximize the total reward. This problem turns out to be a common generalization of classic linear contextual bandits (linContextual), bandits with knapsacks (BwK), and the online stochastic packing problem (OSPP). We present algorithms with near-optimal regret bounds for this problem. Our bounds compare favorably to results on the unstructured version of the problem where the relation between the contexts and the outcomes could be arbitrary, but the algorithm only competes against a fixed set of policies accessible through an optimization oracle. We combine techniques from the work on linContextual, BwK, and OSPP in a nontrivial manner while also tackling new difficulties that are not present in any of these special cases.

In Reinforcement Learning (RL), an agent acts in an unknown environment to maximize the expected cumulative discounted sum of an external reward signal, i.e., the expected return. In practice, in many tasks of interest, such as policy optimization, the agent usually spends its interaction budget by collecting episodes of fixed length within a simulator (i.e., Monte Carlo simulation). However, given the discounted nature of the RL objective, this data collection strategy might not be the best option. Indeed, the rewards taken in early simulation steps weigh exponentially more than future rewards. Taking a cue from this intuition, in this paper, we design an a-priori budget allocation strategy that leads to the collection of trajectories of different lengths, i.e., truncated. The proposed approach provably minimizes the width of the confidence intervals around the empirical estimates of the expected return of a policy. After discussing the theoretical properties of our method, we make use of our trajectory truncation mechanism to extend Policy Optimization via Importance Sampling (POIS, Metelli et al., 2018) algorithm. Finally, we conduct a numerical comparison between our algorithm and POIS: the results are consistent with our theory and show that an appropriate truncation of the trajectories can succeed in improving performance.

In this paper, we study the role of feedback in online learning with switching costs. It has been shown that the minimax regret is Theta(T^{2/3}) under bandit feedback and improves to Theta(T) under full-information feedback, where T is the length of the time horizon. However, it remains largely unknown how the amount and type of feedback generally impact regret. To this end, we first consider the setting of bandit learning with extra observations; that is, in addition to the typical bandit feedback, the learner can freely make a total of B_{ex} extra observations. We fully characterize the minimax regret in this setting, which exhibits an interesting phase-transition phenomenon: when B_{ex} = O(T^{2/3}), the regret remains Theta(T^{2/3}), but when B_{ex} = Omega(T^{2/3}), it becomes Theta(T/B_{mathrm{ex}}), which improves as the budget B_{ex} increases. To design algorithms that can achieve the minimax regret, it is instructive to consider a more general setting where the learner has a budget of B total observations. We fully characterize the minimax regret in this setting as well and show that it is Theta(T/B), which scales smoothly with the total budget B. Furthermore, we propose a generic algorithmic framework, which enables us to design different learning algorithms that can achieve matching upper bounds for both settings based on the amount and type of feedback. One interesting finding is that while bandit feedback can still guarantee optimal regret when the budget is relatively limited, it no longer suffices to achieve optimal regret when the budget is relatively large.

Test-time scaling has become a dominant paradigm for improving LLM agent reliability, yet current approaches treat compute as an abundant resource, allowing agents to exhaust token and tool budgets on redundant steps or dead-end trajectories. Existing budget-aware methods either require expensive fine-tuning or rely on coarse, trajectory-level heuristics that cannot intervene mid-execution. We propose the Budget-Aware Value Tree (BAVT), a training-free inference-time framework that models multi-hop reasoning as a dynamic search tree guided by step-level value estimation within a single LLM backbone. Another key innovation is a budget-conditioned node selection mechanism that uses the remaining resource ratio as a natural scaling exponent over node values, providing a principled, parameter-free transition from broad exploration to greedy exploitation as the budget depletes. To combat the well-known overconfidence of LLM self-evaluation, BAVT employs a residual value predictor that scores relative progress rather than absolute state quality, enabling reliable pruning of uninformative or redundant tool calls. We further provide a theoretical convergence guarantee, proving that BAVT reaches a terminal answer with probability at least 1-ε under an explicit finite budget bound. Extensive evaluations on four multi-hop QA benchmarks across two model families demonstrate that BAVT consistently outperforms parallel sampling baselines. Most notably, BAVT under strict low-budget constraints surpasses baseline performance at 4times the resource allocation, establishing that intelligent budget management fundamentally outperforms brute-force compute scaling.

We present Direct Reward Fine-Tuning (DRaFT), a simple and effective method for fine-tuning diffusion models to maximize differentiable reward functions, such as scores from human preference models. We first show that it is possible to backpropagate the reward function gradient through the full sampling procedure, and that doing so achieves strong performance on a variety of rewards, outperforming reinforcement learning-based approaches. We then propose more efficient variants of DRaFT: DRaFT-K, which truncates backpropagation to only the last K steps of sampling, and DRaFT-LV, which obtains lower-variance gradient estimates for the case when K=1. We show that our methods work well for a variety of reward functions and can be used to substantially improve the aesthetic quality of images generated by Stable Diffusion 1.4. Finally, we draw connections between our approach and prior work, providing a unifying perspective on the design space of gradient-based fine-tuning algorithms.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have achieved remarkable performance in Machine Translation (MT), but deploying them at scale remains prohibitively expensive. A widely adopted remedy is the hybrid system paradigm, which balances cost and quality by serving most requests with a small model and selectively routing a fraction to a large model. However, existing routing strategies often rely on heuristics, external predictors, or absolute quality estimation, which fail to capture whether the large model actually provides a worthwhile improvement over the small one. In this paper, we formulate routing as a budget allocation problem and identify marginal gain, i.e., the large model's improvement over the small model, as the optimal signal for budgeted decisions. Building on this, we propose RouteLMT (routing for LLM-based MT), an efficient in-model router that predicts this expected gain by probing the small translators prompt-token representation, without requiring external models or hypothesis decoding. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our RouteLMT outperforms heuristics, quality/difficulty estimation baselines, achieving a superior quality-budget Pareto frontier. Furthermore, we analyze regression risks and show that a simple guarded variant can mitigate severe quality losses.

The expanding computational costs and limited resources underscore the critical need for budgeted-iteration training, which aims to achieve optimal learning within predetermined iteration budgets.While learning rate schedules fundamentally govern the performance of different networks and tasks, particularly in budgeted-iteration scenarios, their design remains largely heuristic, lacking theoretical foundations.In addition, the optimal learning rate schedule requires extensive trial-and-error selection, making the training process inefficient.In this work, we propose the Unified Budget-Aware (UBA) schedule, a theoretically grounded learning rate schedule that consistently outperforms commonly-used schedules among diverse architectures and tasks under different constrained training budgets.First, we bridge the gap by constructing a novel training budget-aware optimization framework, which explicitly accounts for the robustness to landscape curvature variations.From this framework, we derive the UBA schedule, controlled by a single hyper-parameter varphi that provides a trade-off between flexibility and simplicity, eliminating the need for per-network numerical optimization. Moreover, we establish a theoretical connection between varphi and the condition number, adding interpretation and justification to our approach. Besides, we prove the convergence for different values of varphi.We offer practical guidelines for its selection via theoretical analysis and empirical results.xtensive experimental results show that UBA consistently surpasses the commonly-used schedules across diverse vision and language tasks, spanning network architectures (e.g., ResNet, OLMo) and scales, under different training-iteration budgets.

LLM-as-a-judge has emerged as a cornerstone technique for evaluating large language models by leveraging LLM reasoning to score prompt-response pairs. Since LLM judgments are stochastic, practitioners commonly query each pair multiple times to estimate mean scores accurately. This raises a critical challenge: given a fixed computational budget B, how to optimally allocate queries across K prompt-response pairs to minimize estimation error? % We present a principled variance-adaptive approach leveraging multi-armed bandit theory and concentration inequalities. Our method dynamically allocates queries based on estimated score variances, concentrating resources where uncertainty is highest. Further, our algorithm is shown to achieve a worst-case score-estimation error of Oleft(frac{sum_{i=1^K σ_i^2}{B}}right), σ_i^2 being the unknown score variance for pair i in [K] with near-optimal budget allocation. % Experiments on Summarize-From-Feedback and HelpSteer2 demonstrate that our method significantly outperforms uniform allocation, reducing worst-case estimation error while maintaining identical budgets. Our work establishes a theoretical foundation for efficient LLM evaluation with practical implications for AI safety, model alignment, and automated assessment at scale.

Speculative decoding (SD) accelerates large language model inference by leveraging a draft-then-verify paradigm. To maximize the acceptance rate, recent methods construct expansive draft trees, which unfortunately incur severe VRAM bandwidth and computational overheads that bottleneck end-to-end speedups. While dynamic-depth pruning can reduce this latency by removing marginal branches, it also discards potentially valid candidates, preventing the acceptance rate from reaching the upper bound of dense trees. In this paper, we identify a critical opportunity in resource allocation: the transition from dense to pruned drafting frees up significant computational budget. To break this Pareto tradeoff, we introduce Graft, a compensation framework that couples pruning and retrieval as mutually reinforcing operations. Pruning supplies sufficient budget for retrieval, while retrieval compensates for pruning-induced coverage loss and recovers accepted length. By employing a sequential `prune-then-graft' mechanism, Graft attaches highly predictive retrieved tokens into positions opened by pruning, filling the topological gaps with near-zero overhead. Graft is entirely training-free and lossless. Comprehensive evaluations show that Graft establishes a new Pareto frontier across practical deployment settings, including short-context generation, long-context generation, and large-scale models. On short-context benchmarks, it achieves up to 5.41times speedup and improves average speedup over EAGLE-3 by up to 21.8% on the large-scale Qwen3-235B. We also provide a preliminary exploration of applying Graft to the DFlash-style block drafting paradigm, offering initial evidence and insights for extending grafting beyond autoregressive draft trees.

Speculative decoding is widely used in accelerating large language model (LLM) inference. In this work, we focus on the online draft model selection problem in speculative decoding. We design an algorithm that provably competes with the best draft model in hindsight for each query in terms of either the token acceptance probability or expected acceptance length. In particular, we show that we can accurately evaluate all draft models, instead of only the chosen model without incurring additional queries to the target model, which allows us to improve exponentially over the existing bandit-based approach as the number of draft models increases. Our approach is generically applicable with any speculative decoding methods (single draft, multi-drafts and draft-trees). Moreover, we design system-efficient versions of online learners and demonstrate that the overhead in computation and latency can be substantially reduced. We conduct extensive experiments on open-source LLMs and diverse datasets, demonstrating that our methods substantially outperform the state-of-the-art EAGLE3 and the BanditSpec baseline in a variety of domains where specialized domain-expert drafters are available, especially when long reasoning chains are required.

Scaling laws are used to plan multi-million-dollar training runs, but fitting those laws can itself cost millions. In modern large-scale workflows, assembling a sufficiently informative set of pilot experiments is already a major budget-allocation problem rather than a routine preprocessing step. We formulate scaling-law fitting as budget-aware sequential experimental design: given a finite pool of runnable experiments with heterogeneous costs, choose which runs to execute so as to maximize extrapolation accuracy in a high-cost target region. We then propose an uncertainty-aware method for sequentially allocating experimental budget toward the runs most useful for target-region extrapolation. Across a diverse benchmark of scaling-law tasks, our method consistently outperforms classical design-based baselines, and often approaches the performance of fitting on the full experimental set while using only about 10% of the total training budget. Our code is available at https://github.com/PlanarG/active-sl.

We consider the linear contextual multi-class multi-period packing problem (LMMP) where the goal is to pack items such that the total vector of consumption is below a given budget vector and the total value is as large as possible. We consider the setting where the reward and the consumption vector associated with each action is a class-dependent linear function of the context, and the decision-maker receives bandit feedback. LMMP includes linear contextual bandits with knapsacks and online revenue management as special cases. We establish a new estimator which guarantees a faster convergence rate, and consequently, a lower regret in such problems. We propose a bandit policy that is a closed-form function of said estimated parameters. When the contexts are non-degenerate, the regret of the proposed policy is sublinear in the context dimension, the number of classes, and the time horizon T when the budget grows at least as T. We also resolve an open problem posed by Agrawal & Devanur (2016) and extend the result to a multi-class setting. Our numerical experiments clearly demonstrate that the performance of our policy is superior to other benchmarks in the literature.

Speculative decoding accelerates large language model (LLM) inference by letting a lightweight draft model propose multiple tokens that the target model verifies in parallel. Yet existing training objectives optimize only a single greedy draft path, while decoding follows a tree policy that re-ranks and verifies multiple branches. This draft policy misalignment limits achievable speedups. We introduce Group Tree Optimization (GTO), which aligns training with the decoding-time tree policy through two components: (i) Draft Tree Reward, a sampling-free objective equal to the expected acceptance length of the draft tree under the target model, directly measuring decoding performance; (ii) Group-based Draft Policy Training, a stable optimization scheme that contrasts trees from the current and a frozen reference draft model, forming debiased group-standardized advantages and applying a PPO-style surrogate along the longest accepted sequence for robust updates. We further prove that increasing our Draft Tree Reward provably improves acceptance length and speedup. Across dialogue (MT-Bench), code (HumanEval), and math (GSM8K), and multiple LLMs (e.g., LLaMA-3.1-8B, LLaMA-3.3-70B, Vicuna-1.3-13B, DeepSeek-R1-Distill-LLaMA-8B, Qwen3-8B), GTO increases acceptance length by (7.4%) and yields an additional (7.7%) speedup over prior state-of-the-art EAGLE-3. By bridging draft policy misalignment, GTO offers a practical, general solution for efficient LLM inference. Code and draft models are available at https://github.com/hsj576/GTO.

We consider in this paper the problem of optimal experiment design where a decision maker can choose which points to sample to obtain an estimate hatβ of the hidden parameter β^{star} of an underlying linear model. The key challenge of this work lies in the heteroscedasticity assumption that we make, meaning that each covariate has a different and unknown variance. The goal of the decision maker is then to figure out on the fly the optimal way to allocate the total budget of T samples between covariates, as sampling several times a specific one will reduce the variance of the estimated model around it (but at the cost of a possible higher variance elsewhere). By trying to minimize the ell^2-loss E [lVerthatβ-β^{star}rVert^2] the decision maker is actually minimizing the trace of the covariance matrix of the problem, which corresponds then to online A-optimal design. Combining techniques from bandit and convex optimization we propose a new active sampling algorithm and we compare it with existing ones. We provide theoretical guarantees of this algorithm in different settings, including a O(T^{-2}) regret bound in the case where the covariates form a basis of the feature space, generalizing and improving existing results. Numerical experiments validate our theoretical findings.

Policy gradient methods rely on a baseline to measure the relative advantage of an action, ensuring the model reinforces behaviors that outperform its current average capability. In the training of Large Language Models (LLMs) using Actor-Critic methods (e.g., PPO), this baseline is typically estimated by a Value Model (Critic) often as large as the policy model itself. However, as the policy continuously evolves, the value model requires expensive, synchronous incremental training to accurately track the shifting capabilities of the policy. To avoid this overhead, Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) eliminates the coupled value model by using the average reward of a group of rollouts as the baseline; yet, this approach necessitates extensive sampling to maintain estimation stability. In this paper, we propose V_0, a Generalist Value Model capable of estimating the expected performance of any model on unseen prompts without requiring parameter updates. We reframe value estimation by treating the policy's dynamic capability as an explicit context input; specifically, we leverage a history of instruction-performance pairs to dynamically profile the model, departing from the traditional paradigm that relies on parameter fitting to perceive capability shifts. Focusing on value estimation at State Zero (i.e., the initial prompt, hence V_0), our model serves as a critical resource scheduler. During GRPO training, V_0 predicts success rates prior to rollout, allowing for efficient sampling budget allocation; during deployment, it functions as a router, dispatching instructions to the most cost-effective and suitable model. Empirical results demonstrate that V_0 significantly outperforms heuristic budget allocation and achieves a Pareto-optimal trade-off between performance and cost in LLM routing tasks.

The bandits with knapsack (BwK) framework models online decision-making problems in which an agent makes a sequence of decisions subject to resource consumption constraints. The traditional model assumes that each action consumes a non-negative amount of resources and the process ends when the initial budgets are fully depleted. We study a natural generalization of the BwK framework which allows non-monotonic resource utilization, i.e., resources can be replenished by a positive amount. We propose a best-of-both-worlds primal-dual template that can handle any online learning problem with replenishment for which a suitable primal regret minimizer exists. In particular, we provide the first positive results for the case of adversarial inputs by showing that our framework guarantees a constant competitive ratio alpha when B=Omega(T) or when the possible per-round replenishment is a positive constant. Moreover, under a stochastic input model, our algorithm yields an instance-independent O(T^{1/2}) regret bound which complements existing instance-dependent bounds for the same setting. Finally, we provide applications of our framework to some economic problems of practical relevance.

Generative language models (LMs) have become omnipresent across data science. For a wide variety of tasks, inputs can be phrased as natural language prompts for an LM, from whose output the solution can then be extracted. LM performance has consistently been increasing with model size - but so has the monetary cost of querying the ever larger models. Importantly, however, not all inputs are equally hard: some require larger LMs for obtaining a satisfactory solution, whereas for others smaller LMs suffice. Based on this fact, we design a framework for cost-effective language model choice, called "Fly-swat or cannon" (FORC). Given a set of inputs and a set of candidate LMs, FORC judiciously assigns each input to an LM predicted to do well on the input according to a so-called meta-model, aiming to achieve high overall performance at low cost. The cost-performance tradeoff can be flexibly tuned by the user. Options include, among others, maximizing total expected performance (or the number of processed inputs) while staying within a given cost budget, or minimizing total cost while processing all inputs. We evaluate FORC on 14 datasets covering five natural language tasks, using four candidate LMs of vastly different size and cost. With FORC, we match the performance of the largest available LM while achieving a cost reduction of 63%. Via our publicly available library, researchers as well as practitioners can thus save large amounts of money without sacrificing performance.

Large reasoning models (LRMs) achieve higher performance on challenging reasoning tasks by generating more tokens at inference time, but this verbosity often wastes computation on easy problems. Existing solutions, including supervised finetuning on shorter traces, user-controlled budgets, or RL with uniform penalties, either require data curation, manual configuration, or treat all problems alike regardless of difficulty. We introduce Adaptive Length Penalty (ALP), a reinforcement learning objective tailoring generation length to per-prompt solve rate. During training, ALP monitors each prompt's online solve rate through multiple rollouts and adds a differentiable penalty whose magnitude scales inversely with that rate, so confident (easy) prompts incur a high cost for extra tokens while hard prompts remain unhindered. Posttraining DeepScaleR-1.5B with ALP cuts average token usage by 50\% without significantly dropping performance. Relative to fixed-budget and uniform penalty baselines, ALP redistributes its reduced budget more intelligently by cutting compute on easy prompts and reallocating saved tokens to difficult ones, delivering higher accuracy on the hardest problems with higher cost.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have achieved significant advances in reasoning tasks. A key approach is tree-based search with verifiers, which expand candidate reasoning paths and use reward models to guide pruning and selection. Although effective in improving accuracy, these methods are not optimal in terms of efficiency: they perform simple decomposition on the reasoning process, but ignore the planning-execution nature of tasks such as math reasoning or code generation. This results in inefficient exploration of reasoning process. To address this, we propose a dual-phase test-time scaling framework that explicitly separates reasoning into planning and execution, and performs search over the two phases individually. Specifically, we decompose reasoning trajectories and develop reward models for each phase, enabling the search to explore and prune plans and executions separately. We further introduce a dynamic budget allocation mechanism that adaptively redistributes sampling effort based on reward feedback, allowing early stopping on confident steps and reallocation of computation to more challenging parts of the reasoning process. Experiments on both mathematical reasoning and code generation benchmarks demonstrate that our approach consistently improves accuracy while reducing redundant computation.

Scaling test-time computation improves performance across different tasks on large language models (LLMs), which has also been extended to tool-augmented agents. For these agents, scaling involves not only "thinking" in tokens but also "acting" via tool calls. The number of tool calls directly bounds the agent's interaction with the external environment. However, we find that simply granting agents a larger tool-call budget fails to improve performance, as they lack "budget awareness" and quickly hit a performance ceiling. To address this, we study how to scale such agents effectively under explicit tool-call budgets, focusing on web search agents. We first introduce the Budget Tracker, a lightweight plug-in that provides the agent with continuous budget awareness, enabling simple yet effective scaling. We further develop BATS (Budget Aware Test-time Scaling), an advanced framework that leverages this awareness to dynamically adapt its planning and verification strategy, deciding whether to "dig deeper" on a promising lead or "pivot" to new paths based on remaining resources. To analyze cost-performance scaling in a controlled manner, we formalize a unified cost metric that jointly accounts for token and tool consumption. We provide the first systematic study on budget-constrained agents, showing that budget-aware methods produce more favorable scaling curves and push the cost-performance Pareto frontier. Our work offers empirical insights toward a more transparent and principled understanding of scaling in tool-augmented agents.

Online allocation problems with resource constraints are central problems in revenue management and online advertising. In these problems, requests arrive sequentially during a finite horizon and, for each request, a decision maker needs to choose an action that consumes a certain amount of resources and generates reward. The objective is to maximize cumulative rewards subject to a constraint on the total consumption of resources. In this paper, we consider a data-driven setting in which the reward and resource consumption of each request are generated using an input model that is unknown to the decision maker. We design a general class of algorithms that attain good performance in various input models without knowing which type of input they are facing. In particular, our algorithms are asymptotically optimal under independent and identically distributed inputs as well as various non-stationary stochastic input models, and they attain an asymptotically optimal fixed competitive ratio when the input is adversarial. Our algorithms operate in the Lagrangian dual space: they maintain a dual multiplier for each resource that is updated using online mirror descent. By choosing the reference function accordingly, we recover the dual sub-gradient descent and dual multiplicative weights update algorithm. The resulting algorithms are simple, fast, and do not require convexity in the revenue function, consumption function and action space, in contrast to existing methods for online allocation problems. We discuss applications to network revenue management, online bidding in repeated auctions with budget constraints, online proportional matching with high entropy, and personalized assortment optimization with limited inventory.

While long Chain-of-Thought (CoT) distillation effectively transfers reasoning capability to smaller language models, the reasoning process often remains redundant and computational budget uncontrollable, leading to inefficient resource usage. To address this limitation, we propose Budget-Aware Reasoning Distillation (BARD), a novel framework that simultaneously distills reasoning capability and enables fine-grained control over the reasoning length. BARD uses the thinking budget as a user-specified control signal, allowing the model to dynamically balance reasoning performance and computational efficiency. To achieve this concept, BARD introduces a two-phase training regimen. The first phase, Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT) on teacher-generated long CoT data compressed to various budget levels, bootstrapping the model's understanding of budget constraints. The second phase leverages Reinforcement Learning (RL) from a reward signal in consideration of reasoning performance and budget fidelity simultaneously. Incorporating the two-phase regimen is crucial to avoiding policy degradation and ensuring that both objectives are optimized jointly. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method empowers an 8B student model to achieve strong performance on challenging reasoning benchmarks (AIME24, AIME25, GPQA) while providing precise and adaptive control over its reasoning length across a wide range of budgets.

LLM-based agents show strong potential for long-horizon reasoning, yet their context size is limited by deployment factors (e.g., memory, latency, and cost), yielding a constrained context budget. As interaction histories grow, this induces a trade-off between retaining past information and staying within the context limit. To address this challenge, we propose Budget-Aware Context Management (BACM), which formulates context management as a sequential decision problem with a context budget constraint. It enables agents to assess the available budget before incorporating new observations and decide when and how much of the interaction history to compress. We further develop BACM-RL, an end-to-end curriculum-based reinforcement learning approach that learns compression strategies under varying context budgets. Experiments on compositional multi-objective QA and long-horizon web browsing benchmarks show that BACM-RL consistently outperforms prior methods across model scales and task complexities, achieving over 1.6times gains over strong baselines in high-complexity settings, while maintaining strong advantages as budgets shrink, where most methods exhibit a downward performance trend.

Hyperparameter optimization (HPO) is concerned with the automated search for the most appropriate hyperparameter configuration (HPC) of a parameterized machine learning algorithm. A state-of-the-art HPO method is Hyperband, which, however, has its own parameters that influence its performance. One of these parameters, the maximal budget, is especially problematic: If chosen too small, the budget needs to be increased in hindsight and, as Hyperband is not incremental by design, the entire algorithm must be re-run. This is not only costly but also comes with a loss of valuable knowledge already accumulated. In this paper, we propose incremental variants of Hyperband that eliminate these drawbacks, and show that these variants satisfy theoretical guarantees qualitatively similar to those for the original Hyperband with the "right" budget. Moreover, we demonstrate their practical utility in experiments with benchmark data sets.

Multi-armed bandit problems are the predominant theoretical model of exploration-exploitation tradeoffs in learning, and they have countless applications ranging from medical trials, to communication networks, to Web search and advertising. In many of these application domains the learner may be constrained by one or more supply (or budget) limits, in addition to the customary limitation on the time horizon. The literature lacks a general model encompassing these sorts of problems. We introduce such a model, called "bandits with knapsacks", that combines aspects of stochastic integer programming with online learning. A distinctive feature of our problem, in comparison to the existing regret-minimization literature, is that the optimal policy for a given latent distribution may significantly outperform the policy that plays the optimal fixed arm. Consequently, achieving sublinear regret in the bandits-with-knapsacks problem is significantly more challenging than in conventional bandit problems. We present two algorithms whose reward is close to the information-theoretic optimum: one is based on a novel "balanced exploration" paradigm, while the other is a primal-dual algorithm that uses multiplicative updates. Further, we prove that the regret achieved by both algorithms is optimal up to polylogarithmic factors. We illustrate the generality of the problem by presenting applications in a number of different domains including electronic commerce, routing, and scheduling. As one example of a concrete application, we consider the problem of dynamic posted pricing with limited supply and obtain the first algorithm whose regret, with respect to the optimal dynamic policy, is sublinear in the supply.

Speculative decoding accelerates inference for Large Language Models by using a lightweight draft model to propose candidate tokens that are verified in parallel by a larger target model. Prior work shows that the draft model often dominates speculative decoding latency, since it generates tokens sequentially and incurs high cost from its language modeling head as vocabulary size grows. This exposes a fundamental trade-off in draft model design: larger vocabularies improve token coverage and agreement with the target model, but incur higher draft latency, while smaller vocabularies reduce latency at the risk of missing tokens required for accurate draft generation. We address this trade-off through vocabulary trimming for draft models, motivated by the observation that domain-specific workloads use only a small fraction of the full vocabulary. We cast draft vocabulary selection as a constrained optimization problem that balances token coverage and draft latency. Coverage is computed over assistant responses in the training data, while latency is estimated using architecture-aware FLOPs that capture the cost of the language modeling head as a function of vocabulary size. We optimize a utility function with a Tree-structured Parzen Estimator to efficiently explore the coverage-latency Pareto frontier under a minimum coverage constraint. Experiments show improved speculative decoding throughput while reducing draft vocabularies by up to 97% with high coverage. On domain-specific tasks, we achieve up to 16% latency reduction and 20% throughput improvement, and up to 6.7% throughput gains on diverse out-of-distribution tasks.

Large reasoning models achieve remarkable performance through extensive chain-of-thought generation, yet exhibit significant computational inefficiency by applying uniform reasoning strategies regardless of problem complexity. We present Hierarchical Budget Policy Optimization (HBPO), a reinforcement learning framework that enables models to learn problem-specific reasoning depths without sacrificing capability. HBPO addresses the fundamental challenge of exploration space collapse in efficiency-oriented training, where penalties on long output length systematically bias models away from necessary long reasoning paths. Through hierarchical budget exploration, our approach partitions rollout samples into multiple subgroups with distinct token budgets, aiming to enable efficient resource allocation while preventing degradation of capability. We introduce differentiated reward mechanisms that create budget-aware incentives aligned with the complexity of the problem, allowing models to discover natural correspondences between task requirements and computational effort. Extensive experiments demonstrate that HBPO reduces average token usage by up to 60.6% while improving accuracy by 3.14% across four reasoning benchmarks. Unlike existing methods that impose external constraints or rely on discrete mode selection, HBPO exhibits emergent adaptive behavior where models automatically adjust reasoning depth based on problem complexity. Our results suggest that reasoning efficiency and capability are not inherently conflicting, and can be simultaneously optimized through appropriately structured hierarchical training that preserves exploration diversity.

Speculative decoding accelerates autoregressive language models by using a lightweight drafter to propose multiple future tokens, which the target model then verifies in parallel. DFlash shows that a block diffusion drafter can generate an entire draft block in a single forward pass and achieve state-of-the-art speculative decoding performance, outperforming strong autoregressive drafters such as EAGLE-3. Vanilla DFlash, however, still verifies only a single drafted trajectory per round, potentially limiting its acceptance length. We introduce DDTree (Diffusion Draft Tree), a method that constructs a draft tree directly from the per-position distributions of a block diffusion drafter. Under a fixed node budget, DDTree uses a simple best-first heap algorithm to select the continuations that are most likely to match the target model according to a surrogate defined by the draft model's output. The resulting tree is verified efficiently in a single target model forward pass using an ancestor-only attention mask. Because DDTree builds on DFlash, a leading draft model for speculative decoding, these gains place DDTree among the leading approaches to speculative decoding.

We introduce a new budgeted framework for online influence maximization, considering the total cost of an advertising campaign instead of the common cardinality constraint on a chosen influencer set. Our approach better models the real-world setting where the cost of influencers varies and advertisers want to find the best value for their overall social advertising budget. We propose an algorithm assuming an independent cascade diffusion model and edge level semi-bandit feedback, and provide both theoretical and experimental results. Our analysis is also valid for the cardinality constraint setting and improves the state of the art regret bound in this case.

As large language models (LLMs) scale up, accuracy improves, but the autoregressive (AR) nature of decoding increases latency since each token requires a serial forward pass. Speculative decoding addresses this by employing a fast drafter to propose multi-token drafts, which are then verified in parallel by the target model. However, many deployments still rely on AR drafters, where sequential passes limit wall-clock gains. We revisit the drafting stage and present DiffuSpec, a training-free drop-in framework that uses a pretrained diffusion language model (DLM) to produce multi-token drafts in a single forward pass, while remaining compatible with standard AR verifiers. Because DLM drafts are generated under bidirectional conditioning, parallel per-position candidates form a token lattice in which the locally highest-probability token at each position need not form a causal left-to-right path. Moreover, DLM drafting requires pre-specifying a draft length, inducing a speed-quality trade-off. To address these challenges, we introduce two practical components: (i) a causal-consistency path search (CPS) over this lattice that extracts a left-to-right path aligned with AR verification; and (ii) an adaptive draft-length (ADL) controller that adjusts next proposal size based on recent acceptance feedback and realized generated length. Across benchmarks, DiffuSpec yields up to 3x wall-clock speedup, establishing diffusion-based drafting as a robust alternative to autoregressive drafters for speculative decoding.

Speculative decoding accelerates autoregressive generation by letting a lightweight draft model propose future tokens that a larger target model then verifies in parallel. In practice, however, draft models are usually trained on broad generic corpora, which leaves it unclear how much speculative decoding quality depends on the draft training distribution. We study this question with lightweight HASS and EAGLE-2 drafters trained on MathInstruct, ShareGPT, and mixed-data variants, evaluated on MT-Bench, GSM8K, MATH-500, and SVAMP. Measured by acceptance length, task-specific training yields clear specialization: MathInstruct-trained drafts are strongest on reasoning benchmarks, while ShareGPT-trained drafts are strongest on MT-Bench. Mixed-data training improves robustness, but larger mixtures do not dominate across decoding temperatures. We also study how to combine specialized drafters at inference time. Naive checkpoint averaging performs poorly, whereas confidence-based routing improves over single-domain drafts and merged-tree verification yields the highest acceptance length overall for both backbones. Finally, confidence is a more useful routing signal than entropy: rejected tokens tend to have higher entropy, but confidence produces much clearer benchmark-level routing decisions. These results show that speculative decoding quality depends not only on draft architecture, but also on the match between draft training data and downstream workload, and that specialized drafters are better combined at inference time than in weight space.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown promise in solving complex mathematical problems, yet they still fall short of producing accurate and consistent solutions. Reinforcement Learning (RL) is a framework for aligning these models with task-specific rewards, improving overall quality and reliability. Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) is an efficient, value-function-free alternative to Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) that leverages group-relative reward normalization. We introduce Iterative Group Relative Policy Optimization (iGRPO), a two-stage extension of GRPO that adds dynamic self-conditioning through model-generated drafts. In Stage 1, iGRPO samples multiple exploratory drafts and selects the highest-reward draft using the same scalar reward signal used for optimization. In Stage 2, it appends this best draft to the original prompt and applies a GRPO-style update on draft-conditioned refinements, training the policy to improve beyond its strongest prior attempt. Under matched rollout budgets, iGRPO consistently outperforms GRPO across base models (e.g., Nemotron-H-8B-Base-8K and DeepSeek-R1 Distilled), validating its effectiveness on diverse reasoning benchmarks. Moreover, applying iGRPO to OpenReasoning-Nemotron-7B trained on AceReason-Math achieves new state-of-the-art results of 85.62\% and 79.64\% on AIME24 and AIME25, respectively. Ablations further show that the refinement wrapper generalizes beyond GRPO variants, benefits from a generative judge, and alters learning dynamics by delaying entropy collapse. These results underscore the potential of iterative, self-feedback-based RL for advancing verifiable mathematical reasoning.

Speculative decoding (SD) is a powerful technique for accelerating the inference process of large language models (LLMs) without sacrificing accuracy. Typically, SD employs a small draft model to generate a fixed number of draft tokens, which are then verified in parallel by the target model. However, our experiments reveal that the optimal draft length varies significantly across different decoding steps. This variation suggests that using a fixed draft length limits the potential for further improvements in decoding speed. To address this challenge, we propose Pacer, a novel approach that dynamically controls draft length using a lightweight, trainable pre-verification layer. This layer pre-verifies draft tokens blockwise before they are sent to the target model, allowing the draft model to stop token generation if the blockwise pre-verification fails. We implement Pacer on multiple SD model pairs and evaluate its performance across various benchmarks. Our results demonstrate that Pacer achieves up to 2.66x Speedup over autoregressive decoding and consistently outperforms standard speculative decoding. Furthermore, when integrated with Ouroboros, Pacer attains up to 3.09x Speedup.

We study the problem of modeling a population of agents pursuing unknown goals subject to unknown computational constraints. In standard models of bounded rationality, sub-optimal decision-making is simulated by adding homoscedastic noise to optimal decisions rather than explicitly simulating constrained inference. In this work, we introduce a latent inference budget model (L-IBM) that models agents' computational constraints explicitly, via a latent variable (inferred jointly with a model of agents' goals) that controls the runtime of an iterative inference algorithm. L-IBMs make it possible to learn agent models using data from diverse populations of suboptimal actors. In three modeling tasks -- inferring navigation goals from routes, inferring communicative intents from human utterances, and predicting next moves in human chess games -- we show that L-IBMs match or outperform Boltzmann models of decision-making under uncertainty. Inferred inference budgets are themselves meaningful, efficient to compute, and correlated with measures of player skill, partner skill and task difficulty.

Speculative decoding enhances the efficiency of large language models (LLMs) by leveraging a draft model to draft for a larger target model to review. However, drafting in speculative decoding involves slow autoregressive generation and generating tokens of different importance with the same time allocation. These two inefficiencies lead to its suboptimal performance. To address this issue, we introduce Cascade Speculative Drafting (CS. Drafting), a novel approach that employs two types of cascades. The Vertical Cascade eliminates autoregressive generation from neural models. The Horizontal Cascade constitutes efficient time allocation in drafting with its optimality supported by our theoretical analysis. Combining both cascades, our CS. Drafting algorithm has achieved up to 72 percent additional speedup over speculative decoding in our experiments while keeping the same output distribution.

Closed drafting or "pick and pass" is a popular game mechanic where each round players select a card or other playable element from their hand and pass the rest to the next player. Games employing closed drafting make for great studies on memory and turn order due to their explicitly calculable memory of other players' hands. In this paper, we establish first-principle benchmarks for studying model-free reinforcement learning algorithms and their comparative ability to learn memory in a popular family of closed drafting games called "Sushi Go Party!", producing state-of-the-art results on this environment along the way. Furthermore, as Sushi Go Party! can be expressed as a set of closely-related games based on the set of cards in play, we quantify the generalizability of reinforcement learning algorithms trained on various sets of cards, establishing key trends between generalized performance and the set distance between the train and evaluation game configurations. Finally, we fit decision rules to interpret the strategy of the learned models and compare them to the ranking preferences of human players, finding intuitive common rules and intriguing new moves.

Tree-search decoding is an effective form of test-time scaling for large language models (LLMs), but real-world deployment imposes a fixed per-query token budget that varies across settings. Existing tree-search policies are largely budget-agnostic, treating the budget as a termination condition, which can lead to late-stage over-branching or premature termination. We propose {Budget-Guided MCTS} (BG-MCTS), a tree-search decoding algorithm that aligns its search policy with the remaining token budget: it starts with broad exploration, then prioritizes refinement and answer completion as the budget depletes while reducing late-stage branching from shallow nodes. BG-MCTS consistently outperforms budget-agnostic tree-search baselines across different budgets on MATH500 and AIME24/25 with open-weight LLMs.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable performance in solving complex reasoning tasks through mechanisms like Chain-of-Thought (CoT) prompting, which emphasizes verbose, step-by-step reasoning. However, humans typically employ a more efficient strategy: drafting concise intermediate thoughts that capture only essential information. In this work, we propose Chain of Draft (CoD), a novel paradigm inspired by human cognitive processes, where LLMs generate minimalistic yet informative intermediate reasoning outputs while solving tasks. By reducing verbosity and focusing on critical insights, CoD matches or surpasses CoT in accuracy while using as little as only 7.6% of the tokens, significantly reducing cost and latency across various reasoning tasks.

We improve the efficiency of algorithms for stochastic combinatorial semi-bandits. In most interesting problems, state-of-the-art algorithms take advantage of structural properties of rewards, such as independence. However, while being optimal in terms of asymptotic regret, these algorithms are inefficient. In our paper, we first reduce their implementation to a specific submodular maximization. Then, in case of matroid constraints, we design adapted approximation routines, thereby providing the first efficient algorithms that rely on reward structure to improve regret bound. In particular, we improve the state-of-the-art efficient gap-free regret bound by a factor m/log m, where m is the maximum action size. Finally, we show how our improvement translates to more general budgeted combinatorial semi-bandits.

Test-Time Scaling (TTS) improves the performance of Large Language Models (LLMs) by using additional inference-time computation to explore multiple reasoning paths through search. Yet how to allocate a fixed rollout budget most effectively during search remains underexplored, often resulting in inefficient use of compute at test time. To bridge this gap, we formulate test-time search as a resource allocation problem and derive the optimal allocation strategy that maximizes the probability of obtaining a correct solution under a fixed rollout budget. Within this formulation, we reveal a core limitation of existing search methods: solution-level allocation tends to favor reasoning directions with more candidates, leading to theoretically suboptimal and inefficient use of compute. To address this, we propose Direction-Oriented Resource Allocation (DORA), a provably optimal method that mitigates this bias by decoupling direction quality from candidate count and allocating resources at the direction level. To demonstrate DORA's effectiveness, we conduct extensive experiments on challenging mathematical reasoning benchmarks including MATH500, AIME2024, and AIME2025. The empirical results show that DORA consistently outperforms strong baselines with comparable computational cost, achieving state-of-the-art accuracy. We hope our findings contribute to a broader understanding of optimal TTS for LLMs.

Agentic systems increasingly solve complex user requests by executing orchestrated workflows, where subtasks are assigned to specialized models or tools and coordinated according to their dependencies. While recent work improves agent efficiency by optimizing the performance--cost--latency frontier, real deployments often impose concrete requirements: a workflow must be completed within a specified budget and before a specified deadline. This shifts the goal from average efficiency optimization to maximizing the probability that the entire workflow completes successfully under explicit budget and deadline constraints. We study constraint-driven online resource allocation for agentic workflows. Given a dependency-structured workflow and estimates of success rates and generation lengths for each subtask--model pair, the executor allocates models and parallel samples across simultaneously executable subtasks while managing the remaining budget and time. We formulate this setting as a finite-horizon stochastic online allocation problem and propose Monte Carlo Portfolio Planning (MCPP), a lightweight closed-loop planner that directly estimates constrained completion probability through simulated workflow executions and replans after observed outcomes. Experiments on CodeFlow and ProofFlow demonstrate that MCPP consistently improves constrained completion probability over strong baselines across a wide range of budget--deadline constraints.

In the stochastic multi-armed bandit problem, a randomized probability matching policy called Thompson sampling (TS) has shown excellent performance in various reward models. In addition to the empirical performance, TS has been shown to achieve asymptotic problem-dependent lower bounds in several models. However, its optimality has been mainly addressed under light-tailed or one-parameter models that belong to exponential families. In this paper, we consider the optimality of TS for the Pareto model that has a heavy tail and is parameterized by two unknown parameters. Specifically, we discuss the optimality of TS with probability matching priors that include the Jeffreys prior and the reference priors. We first prove that TS with certain probability matching priors can achieve the optimal regret bound. Then, we show the suboptimality of TS with other priors, including the Jeffreys and the reference priors. Nevertheless, we find that TS with the Jeffreys and reference priors can achieve the asymptotic lower bound if one uses a truncation procedure. These results suggest carefully choosing noninformative priors to avoid suboptimality and show the effectiveness of truncation procedures in TS-based policies.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown impressive capabilities in multi-step reasoning and problem-solving.Recent works introduce multi-agent reflection frameworks where multiple LLM agents critique and refine each other's outputs using reinforcement learning (RL). However, these approaches often rely on single-shot responses and lack structural diversity in reasoning exploration. In this paper, we propose DRAFT-RL, a novel framework that integrates Chain-of-Draft (CoD) reasoning into multi-agent RL training. Instead of generating single responses, each agent produces multiple drafts per query, which are then evaluated by peer agents and a learned reward model to identify the most promising trajectory. These selected drafts are used to refine future reasoning strategies through actor-critic learning.DRAFT-RL enables explicit multi-path exploration, peer-guided reflection, and reward-aligned selection, resulting in more robust and interpretable LLM agent behavior. We evaluate our method on complex reasoning tasks including code synthesis, symbolic math, and knowledge-intensive QA,demonstrating that DRAFT-RL outperforms existing reflective and RL-based agents by significant margins in both accuracy and convergence speed

The increasing complexity of advanced machine learning models requires innovative approaches to manage computational resources effectively. One such method is the Early Exit strategy, which allows for adaptive computation by providing a mechanism to shorten the processing path for simpler data instances. In this paper, we propose EERO, a new methodology to translate the problem of early exiting to a problem of using multiple classifiers with reject option in order to better select the exiting head for each instance. We calibrate the probabilities of exiting at the different heads using aggregation with exponential weights to guarantee a fixed budget .We consider factors such as Bayesian risk, budget constraints, and head-specific budget consumption. Experimental results, conducted using a ResNet-18 model and a ConvNext architecture on Cifar and ImageNet datasets, demonstrate that our method not only effectively manages budget allocation but also enhances accuracy in overthinking scenarios.

Large reasoning language models such as OpenAI-o1 and Deepseek-R1 have recently attracted widespread attention due to their impressive task-solving abilities. However, the enormous model size and the generation of lengthy thought chains introduce significant reasoning costs and response latency. Existing methods for efficient reasoning mainly focus on reducing the number of model parameters or shortening the chain-of-thought length. In this paper, we introduce Speculative Chain-of-Thought (SCoT), which reduces reasoning latency from another perspective by accelerated average reasoning speed through large and small model collaboration. SCoT conducts thought-level drafting using a lightweight draft model. Then it selects the best CoT draft and corrects the error cases with the target model. The proposed thinking behavior alignment improves the efficiency of drafting and the draft selection strategy maintains the prediction accuracy for complex problems. Experimental results on GSM8K, MATH, GaoKao, CollegeMath and Olympiad datasets show that SCoT reduces reasoning latency by 48\%sim66\% for Deepseek-R1-Distill-Qwen-32B while achieving near-target-model-level performance. Our code is available at https://github.com/Jikai0Wang/Speculative_CoT.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have sparked significant interest in their generative capabilities, leading to the development of various commercial applications. The high cost of using the models drives application builders to maximize the value of generation under a limited inference budget. This paper presents a study of optimizing inference hyperparameters such as the number of responses, temperature and max tokens, which significantly affects the utility/cost of text generation. We design a framework named EcoOptiGen which leverages economical hyperparameter optimization and cost-based pruning. Experiments with the GPT-3.5/GPT-4 models on a variety of tasks verify its effectiveness. EcoOptiGen is implemented in the `autogen' package of the FLAML library: https://aka.ms/autogen.

Motivated by concerns about making online decisions that incur undue amount of risk at each time step, in this paper, we formulate the probably anytime-safe stochastic combinatorial semi-bandits problem. In this problem, the agent is given the option to select a subset of size at most K from a set of L ground items. Each item is associated to a certain mean reward as well as a variance that represents its risk. To mitigate the risk that the agent incurs, we require that with probability at least 1-delta, over the entire horizon of time T, each of the choices that the agent makes should contain items whose sum of variances does not exceed a certain variance budget. We call this probably anytime-safe constraint. Under this constraint, we design and analyze an algorithm {\sc PASCombUCB} that minimizes the regret over the horizon of time T. By developing accompanying information-theoretic lower bounds, we show that under both the problem-dependent and problem-independent paradigms, {\sc PASCombUCB} is almost asymptotically optimal. Experiments are conducted to corroborate our theoretical findings. Our problem setup, the proposed {\sc PASCombUCB} algorithm, and novel analyses are applicable to domains such as recommendation systems and transportation in which an agent is allowed to choose multiple items at a single time step and wishes to control the risk over the whole time horizon.

Assessing the capabilities and risks of frontier AI systems is a critical area of research, and recent work has shown that repeated sampling from models can dramatically increase both. For instance, repeated sampling has been shown to increase their capabilities, such as solving difficult math and coding problems, but it has also been shown to increase their potential for harm, such as being jailbroken. Such results raise a crucial question for both capability and safety forecasting: how can one accurately predict a model's behavior when scaled to a massive number of attempts, given a vastly smaller sampling budget? This question is directly relevant to model providers, who serve hundreds of millions of users daily, and to governmental regulators, who seek to prevent harms. To answer this questions, we make three contributions. First, we find that standard methods for fitting these laws suffer from statistical shortcomings that hinder predictive accuracy, especially in data-limited scenarios. Second, we remedy these shortcomings by introducing a robust estimation framework, which uses a beta-binomial distribution to generate more accurate predictions from limited data. Third, we propose a dynamic sampling strategy that allocates a greater budget to harder problems. Combined, these innovations enable more reliable prediction of rare risks and capabilities at a fraction of the computational cost.

Multi-head attention enables Transformers to capture diverse representations, but all attention heads are typically activated for every input, regardless of task complexity. For coarse-grained tasks such as text classification, where relevant information is often global, this fixed allocation can introduce unnecessary computation. We propose BudgetFormer, a Transformer architecture that dynamically allocates attention heads on a per-input basis. The model learns both a head budget and a relevance distribution to select the most informative heads. To support effective head selection, we introduce a training strategy that balances exploration and exploitation. Experiments on text classification tasks show that BudgetFormer reduces FLOPs and memory usage while matching or surpassing the performance of standard multi-head attention. These results highlight adaptive head allocation as an effective approach to improving Transformer efficiency and performance.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used to generate executable outputs, JSON objects, and API calls, where a single syntax error can make the output unusable. Constrained decoding enforces validity token-by-token via masking and renormalization, but it can distort generation when the model assigns low probability mass to valid continuations, pushing decoding toward locally valid yet semantically incorrect trajectories. We propose Draft-Conditioned Constrained Decoding (DCCD), a simple two-step, training-free inference procedure that decouples semantic planning from structural enforcement: an unconstrained draft is generated first, and constrained decoding is then applied, conditioned on this draft, to guarantee validity. We analyze DCCD through a KL-projection view, showing that draft conditioning increases feasible mass and reduces the cumulative "projection tax" induced by hard constraints, with an optional best-of-K draft selection. Across structured reasoning benchmarks, DCCD improves strict structured accuracy by up to +24 percentage points over standard constrained decoding (e.g., 15.2\% to 39.0\% on GSM8K with a 1B model), and enables smaller model pairs to match or exceed much larger constrained baselines, yielding substantial gains in parameter efficiency.

Computationally intensive decoding procedures--including search, reranking, and self-critique--can improve the quality of language model (LM) outputs in problems spanning code generation, numerical reasoning, and dialog. Existing work typically applies the same decoding procedure for every input to an LM. But not all inputs require the same amount of computation to process. Can we allocate decoding computation adaptively, using more resources to answer questions whose answers will be harder to compute? We present an approach that predicts the distribution of rewards given an input and computation budget, then allocates additional computation to inputs for which it is predicted to be most useful. We apply this approach in two decoding procedures: first, an adaptive best-of-k procedure that dynamically selects the number of samples to generate as input to a reranker; second, a routing procedure that dynamically responds to a query using a decoding procedure that is expensive but accurate, or one that is cheaper but less capable. Across a suite of programming, mathematics, and dialog tasks, we show that accurate computation-allocation procedures can be learned, and reduce computation by up to 50% at no cost to response quality, or improve quality by up to 10% at a fixed computational budget.

Diffusion models have recently exhibited remarkable performance on synthetic data. After a diffusion path is selected, a base model, such as UNet, operates as a denoising autoencoder, primarily predicting noises that need to be eliminated step by step. Consequently, it is crucial to employ a model that aligns with the expected budgets to facilitate superior synthetic performance. In this paper, we meticulously analyze the diffusion model and engineer a base model search approach, denoted "DiffNAS". Specifically, we leverage GPT-4 as a supernet to expedite the search, supplemented with a search memory to enhance the results. Moreover, we employ RFID as a proxy to promptly rank the experimental outcomes produced by GPT-4. We also adopt a rapid-convergence training strategy to boost search efficiency. Rigorous experimentation corroborates that our algorithm can augment the search efficiency by 2 times under GPT-based scenarios, while also attaining a performance of 2.82 with 0.37 improvement in FID on CIFAR10 relative to the benchmark IDDPM algorithm.

Large language models improve final-answer accuracy through extended chain-of-thought reasoning, but often spend tokens inefficiently and offer little inference-time control. Existing efficient reasoning methods control thinking length by shortening, early-stopping, or compressing traces, leaving how the model thinks implicit. In this paper, we propose Agentic Chain-of-Thought Steering (ACTS), which formulates reasoning steering as a Markov decision process where a controller agent adaptively steers a frozen reasoner during inference. At each step, the controller observes the reasoning trace and remaining thinking budget, then issues a steering action consisting of a reasoning strategy and a steering phrase that initiates the next reasoner step. This enables budget-aware strategy control for efficient reasoning while preserving the reasoner's generation continuity. We initialize the controller agent from our constructed synthetic steering trajectories with multi-budget augmentation, and further optimize it via reinforcement learning with budget-conditioned reward shaping. Experiments across multiple benchmarks show that ACTS matches full-thinking performance with substantial token savings, and enables controllable accuracy-efficiency trade-offs across different reasoners and tasks. The code is available at https://github.com/Andree-9/ACTS.

Portfolio Selection is an important real-world financial task and has attracted extensive attention in artificial intelligence communities. This task, however, has two main difficulties: (i) the non-stationary price series and complex asset correlations make the learning of feature representation very hard; (ii) the practicality principle in financial markets requires controlling both transaction and risk costs. Most existing methods adopt handcraft features and/or consider no constraints for the costs, which may make them perform unsatisfactorily and fail to control both costs in practice. In this paper, we propose a cost-sensitive portfolio selection method with deep reinforcement learning. Specifically, a novel two-stream portfolio policy network is devised to extract both price series patterns and asset correlations, while a new cost-sensitive reward function is developed to maximize the accumulated return and constrain both costs via reinforcement learning. We theoretically analyze the near-optimality of the proposed reward, which shows that the growth rate of the policy regarding this reward function can approach the theoretical optimum. We also empirically evaluate the proposed method on real-world datasets. Promising results demonstrate the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed method in terms of profitability, cost-sensitivity and representation abilities.

We initiate the study of statistical inference and A/B testing for first-price pacing equilibria (FPPE). The FPPE model captures the dynamics resulting from large-scale first-price auction markets where buyers use pacing-based budget management. Such markets arise in the context of internet advertising, where budgets are prevalent. We propose a statistical framework for the FPPE model, in which a limit FPPE with a continuum of items models the long-run steady-state behavior of the auction platform, and an observable FPPE consisting of a finite number of items provides the data to estimate primitives of the limit FPPE, such as revenue, Nash social welfare (a fair metric of efficiency), and other parameters of interest. We develop central limit theorems and asymptotically valid confidence intervals. Furthermore, we establish the asymptotic local minimax optimality of our estimators. We then show that the theory can be used for conducting statistically valid A/B testing on auction platforms. Numerical simulations verify our central limit theorems, and empirical coverage rates for our confidence intervals agree with our theory.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have revolutionized natural language processing, but their varying capabilities and costs pose challenges in practical applications. LLM routing addresses this by dynamically selecting the most suitable LLM for each query/task. Previous approaches treat this as a supervised learning problem, assuming complete knowledge of optimal query-LLM pairings. However, real-world scenarios lack such comprehensive mappings and face evolving user queries. We thus propose to study LLM routing as a contextual bandit problem, enabling adaptive decision-making using bandit feedback without requiring exhaustive inference across all LLMs for all queries (in contrast to supervised routing). To address this problem, we develop a shared embedding space for queries and LLMs, where query and LLM embeddings are aligned to reflect their affinity. This space is initially learned from offline human preference data and refined through online bandit feedback. We instantiate this idea through Preference-prior Informed Linucb fOr adaptive rouTing (PILOT), a novel extension of LinUCB. To handle diverse user budgets for model routing, we introduce an online cost policy modeled as a multi-choice knapsack problem, ensuring resource-efficient routing.

We consider the combinatorial bandits problem with semi-bandit feedback under finite sampling budget constraints, in which the learner can carry out its action only for a limited number of times specified by an overall budget. The action is to choose a set of arms, whereupon feedback for each arm in the chosen set is received. Unlike existing works, we study this problem in a non-stochastic setting with subset-dependent feedback, i.e., the semi-bandit feedback received could be generated by an oblivious adversary and also might depend on the chosen set of arms. In addition, we consider a general feedback scenario covering both the numerical-based as well as preference-based case and introduce a sound theoretical framework for this setting guaranteeing sensible notions of optimal arms, which a learner seeks to find. We suggest a generic algorithm suitable to cover the full spectrum of conceivable arm elimination strategies from aggressive to conservative. Theoretical questions about the sufficient and necessary budget of the algorithm to find the best arm are answered and complemented by deriving lower bounds for any learning algorithm for this problem scenario.

Effective decision-making in Large Language Models (LLMs) is essential for handling intricate tasks. However, existing approaches prioritize performance but often overlook the balance between effectiveness and computational cost. To address this, we first introduce the 3E Criteria to systematically assess the cost-effectiveness of search strategies, revealing that existing methods often trade significant efficiency for marginal performance gains. To improve LLM decision-making while maintaining efficiency, we propose the Speculative Reward Model (SRM), a plug-and-play framework that seamlessly integrates with existing search strategies. Specifically, SRM employs an external reward assigner to predict optimal actions, reducing reliance on LLMs' internal self-evaluation. And a speculative verification mechanism is used to prune suboptimal choices and guide the search toward more promising steps. We evaluate SRM on several complex decision-making tasks including mathematical reasoning, planning and numerical reasoning in specialized domains. Experimental results show that SRM reduces costs to 1/10 of the original search framework on average while maintaining effectiveness.

Human evaluation is the gold-standard for evaluating text generation models. It is also expensive, and to fit budgetary constraints, a random subset of the test data is often chosen in practice. The randomly selected data may not accurately represent test performance, making this approach economically inefficient for model comparison. Thus, in this work, we develop a suite of selectors to get the most informative datapoints for human evaluation while taking the evaluation costs into account. We show that selectors based on variance in automated metric scores, diversity in model outputs, or Item Response Theory outperform random selection. We further develop an approach to distill these selectors to the scenario where the model outputs are not yet available. In particular, we introduce source-based estimators, which predict item usefulness for human evaluation just based on the source texts. We demonstrate the efficacy of our selectors in two common NLG tasks, machine translation and summarization, and show that up to only ~50% of the test data is needed to produce the same evaluation result as the entire data. Our implementations are published in the subset2evaluate package.

As LLM agents tackle increasingly complex tasks, a critical question is whether they can maintain strategic coherence over long horizons: planning under uncertainty, learning from delayed feedback, and adapting when early mistakes compound. We introduce YC-Bench, a benchmark that evaluates these capabilities by tasking an agent with running a simulated startup over a one-year horizon spanning hundreds of turns. The agent must manage employees, select task contracts, and maintain profitability in a partially observable environment where adversarial clients and growing payroll create compounding consequences for poor decisions. We evaluate 12 models, both proprietary and open source, across 3 seeds each. Only three models consistently surpass the starting capital of \200K, with Claude Opus 4.6 achieving the highest average final funds at 1.27 M, followed by GLM-5 at \1.21 M at 11\times lower inference cost. Scratchpad usage, the sole mechanism for persisting information across context truncation, is the strongest predictor of success, and adversarial client detection is the primary failure mode, accounting for 47\% of bankruptcies. Our analysis reveals that frontier models still fail through distinct failure modes such as over-parallelization, demonstrating the capability gaps for long-horizon performance. YC-Bench$ is open-source, reproducible, and configurable.

This paper presents a personalized character recommendation system for Multiplayer Online Battle Arena (MOBA) games which are considered as one of the most popular online video game genres around the world. When playing MOBA games, players go through a draft stage, where they alternately select a virtual character to play. When drafting, players select characters by not only considering their character preferences, but also the synergy and competence of their team's character combination. However, the complexity of drafting induces difficulties for beginners to choose the appropriate characters based on the characters of their team while considering their own champion preferences. To alleviate this problem, we propose DraftRec, a novel hierarchical model which recommends characters by considering each player's champion preferences and the interaction between the players. DraftRec consists of two networks: the player network and the match network. The player network captures the individual player's champion preference, and the match network integrates the complex relationship between the players and their respective champions. We train and evaluate our model from a manually collected 280,000 matches of League of Legends and a publicly available 50,000 matches of Dota2. Empirically, our method achieved state-of-the-art performance in character recommendation and match outcome prediction task. Furthermore, a comprehensive user survey confirms that DraftRec provides convincing and satisfying recommendations. Our code and dataset are available at https://github.com/dojeon-ai/DraftRec.

We study budget-constrained tool-augmented agents, where a large language model must solve multi-step tasks by invoking external tools under a strict monetary budget. We formalize this setting as sequential decision making in context space with priced and stochastic tool executions, making direct planning intractable due to massive state-action spaces, high variance of outcomes and prohibitive exploration cost. To address these challenges, we propose INTENT, an inference-time planning framework that leverages an intention-aware hierarchical world model to anticipate future tool usage, risk-calibrated cost, and guide decisions online. Across cost-augmented StableToolBench, INTENT strictly enforces hard budget feasibility while substantially improving task success over baselines, and remains robust under dynamic market shifts such as tool price changes and varying budgets.

Some classical uncertainty quantification problems require the estimation of multiple expectations. Estimating all of them accurately is crucial and can have a major impact on the analysis to perform, and standard existing Monte Carlo methods can be costly to do so. We propose here a new procedure based on importance sampling and control variates for estimating more efficiently multiple expectations with the same sample. We first show that there exists a family of optimal estimators combining both importance sampling and control variates, which however cannot be used in practice because they require the knowledge of the values of the expectations to estimate. Motivated by the form of these optimal estimators and some interesting properties, we therefore propose an adaptive algorithm. The general idea is to adaptively update the parameters of the estimators for approaching the optimal ones. We suggest then a quantitative stopping criterion that exploits the trade-off between approaching these optimal parameters and having a sufficient budget left. This left budget is then used to draw a new independent sample from the final sampling distribution, allowing to get unbiased estimators of the expectations. We show how to apply our procedure to sensitivity analysis, by estimating Sobol' indices and quantifying the impact of the input distributions. Finally, realistic test cases show the practical interest of the proposed algorithm, and its significant improvement over estimating the expectations separately.

Speculative decoding is an inference-acceleration method for large language models (LLMs) where a small language model generates a draft-token sequence which is further verified by the target LLM in parallel. Recent works have advanced this method by establishing a draft-token tree, achieving superior performance over a single-sequence speculative decoding. However, those works independently generate tokens at each level of the tree, not leveraging the tree's entire diversifiability. Besides, their empirical superiority has been shown for fixed length of sequences, implicitly granting more computational resource to LLM for the tree-based methods. None of the existing works has conducted empirical studies with fixed target computational budgets despite its importance to resource-bounded devices. We present Recursive Speculative Decoding (RSD), a novel tree-based method that samples draft tokens without replacement and maximizes the diversity of the tree. During RSD's drafting, the tree is built by either Gumbel-Top-k trick that draws tokens without replacement in parallel or Stochastic Beam Search that samples sequences without replacement while early-truncating unlikely draft sequences and reducing the computational cost of LLM. We empirically evaluate RSD with Llama 2 and OPT models, showing that RSD outperforms the baseline methods, consistently for fixed draft sequence length and in most cases for fixed computational budgets at LLM.

Speculative Decoding (SD) is a widely used approach to accelerate the inference of large language models (LLMs) without reducing generation quality. It operates by first using a compact model to draft multiple tokens efficiently, followed by parallel verification using the target LLM. This approach leads to faster inference compared to auto-regressive decoding. While there are multiple approaches to create a draft model, one promising approach is to use early-exit methods. These methods draft candidate tokens by using a subset of layers of the primary model and applying the remaining layers for verification, allowing a single model to handle both drafting and verification. While this technique reduces memory usage and computational cost, its performance relies on the choice of the exit layer for drafting and the number of tokens drafted (speculation length) in each SD round. Prior works use hyperparameter exploration to statically select these values. However, our evaluations show that these hyperparameter values are task-specific, and even within a task they are dependent on the current sequence context. We introduce DEL, a plug-and-play method that adaptively selects the exit layer and speculation length during inference. DEL dynamically tracks the token acceptance rate if the tokens are drafted at each layer of an LLM and uses that knowledge to heuristically select the optimal exit layer and speculation length. Our experiments across a broad range of models and downstream tasks show that DEL achieves overall speedups of 2.16timessim2.50times over vanilla auto-regressive decoding and improves upon the state-of-the-art SD methods by up to 0.27times.

Deep research agents rely on iterative retrieval and reasoning to answer complex queries, but scaling test-time computation raises significant efficiency concerns. We study how to allocate reasoning budget in deep search pipelines, focusing on the role of listwise reranking. Using the BrowseComp-Plus benchmark, we analyze tradeoffs between model scale, reasoning effort, reranking depth, and total token cost via a novel effective token cost (ETC) metric. Our results show that reranking consistently improves retrieval and end-to-end accuracy, and that moderate reranking often yields larger gains than increasing search-time reasoning, achieving comparable accuracy at substantially lower cost. All our code is available at https://github.com/texttron/BrowseComp-Plus.git

Speculative decoding accelerates large language model inference by pairing a target model with a lightweight draft model whose proposed tokens are verified in parallel. A common way to build draft models, like EAGLE3 or DFlash is supervised fine-tuning (SFT) on target-generated trajectories. However, we observe that SFT quickly plateaus: the draft model's acceptance length on test data stops improving. The reason is an offline-to-inference mismatch: In SFT, the drafter learns from fixed target-generated trajectories, whereas during speculative decoding it is evaluated on blocks proposed under its own policy. This motivates on-policy distillation (OPD), where the target model supervises the drafter on draft-induced states. Yet OPD remains difficult for draft models, as they cannot reliably roll out complete sequences independently, whereas target-assisted generation makes the collected sequences follow the target distribution and thus eliminates the on-policy signal. We therefore propose Draft-OPD, which uses target-assisted rollout for stable continuations and replays drafting from the verification-exposed error positions. This allows the drafter to learn from target feedback on both accepted and rejected proposals, focusing training on the draft-induced errors that limit speculative acceptance. Experiments show that Draft-OPD achieves over 5times lossless acceleration for thinking models across diverse tasks, improving over EAGLE-3 and DFlash by 23\% and 13\%.

In this paper, we introduce a simple training-free technique to improve the performance of drafter-based speculative decoding (SpD) methods that incorporates language modeling head (LM head) during drafting process. A drafter-based speculative decoding leverages one or more smaller language models, a.k.a. drafters or draft models, to sample a draft sequence or tree consisting of multiple tokens, followed by verification by a base LLM, a target model, accepting a subset as its valid generation. As it is usually considered that the speculative decoding requires one-to-one mapping between vocabularies of the target model and the draft model, it has been natural to share the vocabulary between them, or even share the LM head as in EAGLE or Medusa. We first identify that this draft token sampling scheme inherently contains an unnecessary inference overhead in drafting, especially for some target LLMs with very large vocabularies. Then, we propose a simple technique, VocabTrim, to mitigate the drafting overhead to improve the generation speed in memory-bound environment. VocabTrim reconstructs the drafter LM head to contain only a limited set of tokens, selected by the most frequently sampled from the vocabulary of the target model. While limiting the vocabulary in drafting slightly degrades the acceptance rate, it significantly reduces the drafting latency in memory-bound process which is often the case on edge devices, resulting in higher memory-bound speed up (MBSU). We show that our method can boost the memory-bound speed-up for Llama-3 models on Spec-Bench, specifically by 16% for Llama-3.2-3B-Instruct.

Multi-agent systems can improve reliability, yet under a fixed inference budget they often help, saturate, or even collapse. We develop a minimal and calibratable theory that predicts these regimes from three binding constraints of modern agent stacks: finite context windows, lossy inter-agent communication, and shared failures among similar agents. Each leaf agent is summarized by a compute-performance scaling exponent β; communication is captured by a message-length fidelity curve γ(m); dependence is captured by an effective shared-error correlation ρ; and a context window W imposes hard fan-in limits that make hierarchy necessary. For binary success/failure tasks with majority aggregation, we prove a sharp phase transition for deep b-ary trees with correlated inputs and lossy communication: a single scalar α_ρ (combining γ(m), ρ, and fan-in b) determines whether weak signal is amplified to a nontrivial fixed point or washed out to chance. In the amplifying regime, we derive an organization exponent s and show that budgeted synergy, i.e., outperforming the best single agent under the same total budget, occurs exactly when s>β, yielding closed-form compute allocation rules and explicit budget thresholds. We further characterize saturation via a mixing depth and provide a conservative clipped predictor that remains accurate across growth and saturation. A continuous-performance warm-up gives closed-form risks for star, chain, and tree organizations, making correlation- and communication-induced floors explicit and exposing the core design trade-offs in a smooth setting. Finally, we validate the predicted phase boundaries in controlled synthetic simulations and show how the same mechanisms explain the dominant bottlenecks reported in recent large-scale matched-budget studies of LLM agent-system scaling.

In Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR), constructing a robust advantage baseline is critical for policy gradients, effectively guiding the policy model to reinforce desired behaviors. Recent research has introduced Generalist Value Models (such as V_0), which achieve pre-trained value estimation by explicitly encoding model capabilities in-context, eliminating the need to synchronously update the value model alongside the policy model. In this paper, we propose V_{0.5}, which adaptively fuses the baseline predicted by such value model (acting as a prior) with the empirical mean derived from sparse rollouts. This constructs a robust baseline that balances computational efficiency with extremely low variance. Specifically, we introduce a real-time statistical testing and dynamic budget allocation. This balances the high variance caused by sparse sampling against the systematic bias (or hallucinations) inherent in the value model's prior. By constructing a hypothesis test to evaluate the prior's reliability in real-time, the system dynamically allocates additional rollout budget on demand. This mechanism minimizes the baseline estimator's Mean Squared Error (MSE), guaranteeing stable policy gradients, even under extreme sparsity with a group size of 4. Extensive evaluations across six mathematical reasoning benchmarks demonstrate that V_{0.5} significantly outperforms GRPO and DAPO, achieving faster convergence and over some 10% performance improvement.