Daily Papers

A key challenge in graph out-of-distribution (OOD) detection lies in the absence of ground-truth OOD samples during training. Existing methods are typically optimized to capture features within the in-distribution (ID) data and calculate OOD scores, which often limits pre-trained models from representing distributional boundaries, leading to unreliable OOD detection. Moreover, the latent structure of graph data is often governed by multiple underlying factors, which remains less explored. To address these challenges, we propose a novel test-time graph OOD detection method, termed BaCa, that calibrates OOD scores using dual dynamically updated dictionaries without requiring fine-tuning the pre-trained model. Specifically, BaCa estimates graphons and applies a mix-up strategy solely with test samples to generate diverse boundary-aware discriminative topologies, eliminating the need for exposing auxiliary datasets as outliers. We construct dual dynamic dictionaries via priority queues and attention mechanisms to adaptively capture latent ID and OOD representations, which are then utilized for boundary-aware OOD score calibration. To the best of our knowledge, extensive experiments on real-world datasets show that BaCa significantly outperforms existing state-of-the-art methods in OOD detection.

Allocating more computation during inference time (test-time scaling) improves language model performance, especially for reasoning tasks. However, popular methods like Best-of-N sampling often show diminishing returns as N increases. To address this inefficiency, we introduce a general test-time calibration framework that adaptively modifies the model toward high-reward reasoning paths, with theoretical guarantees of improving the lower bound of expected reward under finite sampling, all without large language model (LLM) retraining. Within this framework, we propose CarBoN (Calibrated Best-of-N), a two-phase method that first explores the solution space and then learns a calibration of the logits via an input-specific temperature T and additive shift vector delta, guiding generation toward more reliable reasoning. Experiments on MATH-500 and AIME-2024 show that CarBoN improves efficiency, with up to 4times fewer rollouts to reach the same accuracy, while often achieving higher accuracy under fixed budgets. We also analyze the complementary roles of T and delta in balancing output diversity and correctness, and demonstrate that the framework also generalizes to step-level sampling strategies such as beam search. For more information, please refer to our project page at huggingface.co/spaces/TrustSafeAI/Test-Time-Calibration.

Non-invasive continuous blood pressure (BP) monitoring using photoplethysmography (PPG) is a promising alternative to cuff-based measurements. However, existing PPG-based BP estimation studies predominantly rely on aggregated performance metrics (e.g., mean absolute error) computed over entire evaluation intervals, which can obscure model failures during rapid BP fluctuations and limit clinical relevance. In this work, we propose a fluctuation-aware evaluation framework for PPG-based BP estimation based on time-series change point detection. Instead of heuristic BP thresholding (e.g., ΔBP > 10mmHg), we identify BP change points by capturing abrupt distributional shifts in BP trajectories and evaluate estimation performance specifically during these fluctuation periods. Our analysis shows that several state-of-the-art models exhibit substantial performance degradation around BP change points, and that periodic test-time calibration is insufficient to handle such dynamic BP variations. To address this limitation, we introduce a targeted re-calibration framework triggered by detected BP change points, improving robustness without modifying model architectures. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first systematic evaluation of PPG-based BP estimation from a BP change point perspective, highlighting the importance of fluctuation-aware evaluation and calibration for real-world continuous BP monitoring.

While test-time scaling has enabled large language models to solve highly difficult tasks, state-of-the-art results come at exorbitant compute costs. These inefficiencies can be attributed to the miscalibration of post-trained language models, and the lack of calibration in popular sampling techniques. Here, we present Online Reasoning Calibration (ORCA), a framework for calibrating the sampling process that draws upon conformal prediction and test-time training. Specifically, we introduce a meta-learning procedure that updates the calibration module for each input. This allows us to provide valid confidence estimates under distributional shift, e.g. in thought patterns that occur across different stages of reasoning, or in prompt distributions between model development and deployment. ORCA not only provides theoretical guarantees on conformal risks, but also empirically shows higher efficiency and generalization across different reasoning tasks. At risk level δ=0.1, ORCA improves Qwen2.5-32B efficiency on in-distribution tasks with savings up to 47.5% with supervised labels and 40.7% with self-consistency labels. Under zero-shot out-of-domain settings, it improves MATH-500 savings from 24.8% of the static calibration baseline to 67.0% while maintaining a low empirical error rate, and the same trend holds across model families and downstream benchmarks. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/wzekai99/ORCA.

Deep neural networks have a clear degradation when applying to the unseen environment due to the covariate shift. Conventional approaches like domain adaptation requires the pre-collected target data for iterative training, which is impractical in real-world applications. In this paper, we propose to adapt the deep models to the novel environment during inference. An previous solution is test time normalization, which substitutes the source statistics in BN layers with the target batch statistics. However, we show that test time normalization may potentially deteriorate the discriminative structures due to the mismatch between target batch statistics and source parameters. To this end, we present a general formulation alpha-BN to calibrate the batch statistics by mixing up the source and target statistics for both alleviating the domain shift and preserving the discriminative structures. Based on alpha-BN, we further present a novel loss function to form a unified test time adaptation framework Core, which performs the pairwise class correlation online optimization. Extensive experiments show that our approaches achieve the state-of-the-art performance on total twelve datasets from three topics, including model robustness to corruptions, domain generalization on image classification and semantic segmentation. Particularly, our alpha-BN improves 28.4\% to 43.9\% on GTA5 rightarrow Cityscapes without any training, even outperforms the latest source-free domain adaptation method.

Depth-of-field control is a fundamental tool in photography, yet post-capture bokeh editing from a single image remains challenging. A practical editor should handle images captured under arbitrary focus and aperture settings. Existing methods typically assume an all-in-focus input, or first recover an all-in-focus image before rendering new bokeh. Such pipelines can discard useful blur cues from the source image and propagate reconstruction artifacts into the final edit. We introduce AnyBokeh, a physics-guided framework for any-to-any bokeh editing. Instead of treating source blur merely as a degradation to be removed, AnyBokeh estimates the source blur state with a signed circle-of-confusion map and a disparity map. By modeling the linear relation between signed circle of confusion and disparity difference, AnyBokeh estimates a source-specific optical fingerprint and transfers the source optical characteristics to the desired focus and aperture setting. A generative editor conditioned on both source and target circle-of-confusion maps then performs relative blur synthesis, enabling spatially adaptive deblurring, preservation, and defocus rendering. To support physically supervised learning, we further construct a high-fidelity synthetic dataset with accurate depth, focus distance, and full EXIF metadata. Experiments on real-world benchmarks show that AnyBokeh achieves faithful and controllable editing across any-to-any bokeh editing, all-in-focus-to-bokeh rendering, and defocus deblurring, while avoiding all-in-focus reconstruction and test-time bokeh-level calibration commonly required by existing approaches. The code and dataset will be available at https://github.com/itsmag11/AnyBokeh.

Increasing test-time computation is a straightforward approach to enhancing the quality of responses in Large Language Models (LLMs). While Best-of-N sampling and Self-Consistency with majority voting are simple and effective, they require a fixed number of sampling responses for each query, regardless of its complexity. This could result in wasted computation for simpler questions and insufficient exploration for more challenging ones. In this work, we argue that model confidence of responses can be used for improving the efficiency of test-time scaling. Unfortunately, LLMs are known to be overconfident and provide unreliable confidence estimation. To address this limitation, we introduce Self-Calibration by distilling Self-Consistency-derived confidence into the model itself. This enables reliable confidence estimation at test time with one forward pass. We then design confidence-based efficient test-time scaling methods to handle queries of various difficulty, such as Early-Stopping for Best-of-N and Self-Consistency with calibrated confidence. Experiments on three LLMs across six datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach. Specifically, applying confidence-based Early Stopping to Best-of-N improves MathQA accuracy from 81.0 to 83.6 with a sample budget of 16 responses, indicating the efficacy of confidence-based sampling strategy at inference time.

With the increasing adoption of vision-language models (VLMs) in critical decision-making systems such as healthcare or autonomous driving, the calibration of their uncertainty estimates becomes paramount. Yet, this dimension has been largely underexplored in the VLM test-time prompt-tuning (TPT) literature, which has predominantly focused on improving their discriminative performance. Recent state-of-the-art advocates for enforcing full orthogonality over pairs of text prompt embeddings to enhance separability, and therefore calibration. Nevertheless, as we theoretically show in this work, the inherent gradients from fully orthogonal constraints will strongly push semantically related classes away, ultimately making the model overconfident. Based on our findings, we propose Semantic Orthogonal Calibration (SoC), a Huber-based regularizer that enforces smooth prototype separation while preserving semantic proximity, thereby improving calibration compared to prior orthogonality-based approaches. Across a comprehensive empirical validation, we demonstrate that SoC consistently improves calibration performance, while also maintaining competitive discriminative capabilities.

Test-time training (TTT) adapts model parameters on unlabeled test instances during inference time, which continuously extends capabilities beyond the reach of offline training. Despite initial gains, existing TTT methods for LRMs plateau quickly and do not benefit from additional test-time compute. Without external calibration, the self-generated reward signal increasingly drifts as the policy model evolves, leading to both performance plateaus and diversity collapse. We propose TEMPO, a TTT framework that interleaves policy refinement on unlabeled questions with periodic critic recalibration on a labeled dataset. By formalizing this alternating procedure through the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm, we reveal that prior methods can be interpreted as incomplete variants that omit the crucial recalibration step. Reintroducing this step tightens the evidence lower bound (ELBO) and enables sustained improvement. Across diverse model families (Qwen3 and OLMO3) and reasoning tasks, TEMPO improves OLMO3-7B on AIME 2024 from 33.0% to 51.1% and Qwen3-14B from 42.3% to 65.8%, while maintaining high diversity.

Large language models (LLMs) benefit from test-time scaling but are often hampered by high inference latency. Speculative decoding is a natural way to accelerate the scaling process; however, scaling along both the parallel and sequential dimensions poses significant challenges, including substantial memory-bound execution and synchronization overhead. We introduce ATTS (Asynchronous Test-Time Scaling), a statistically guaranteed adaptive scaling framework that follows the hypothesis testing process to address these challenges. By revisiting arithmetic intensity, ATTS identifies synchronization as the primary bottleneck. It enables asynchronous inference through online calibration and proposes an ordinal classification algorithm that supports a three-stage rejection sampling pipeline, scaling along both the sequential and parallel axes. Across experiments on the MATH, AMC23, AIME24, and AIME25 datasets and across multiple draft-target model families, we show that ATTS delivers up to 56.7x speedup in test-time scaling and a 4.14x throughput improvement, while maintaining accurate control of the rejection rate, reducing latency and memory overhead, and incurring no accuracy loss. By scaling both in parallel and sequential dimensions, we enable the 1.5B/70B draft/target model combination to achieve the performance of the state-of-the-art reasoning model o3-mini (high) on the AIME dataset. We have released the code at https://github.com/menik1126/asynchronous-test-time-scaling.

On-the-fly category discovery (OCD) aims to recognize known categories while simultaneously discovering novel ones from an unlabeled online stream, using a model trained only on labeled data. Existing approaches freeze the feature extractor trained offline and employ a hash-based framework that quantizes features into binary codes as class prototypes. However, discovering novel categories with a fixed knowledge base is counterintuitive, as the learning potential of incoming data is entirely neglected. In addition, feature quantization introduces information loss, diminishes representational expressiveness, and amplifies intra-class variance. It often results in category explosion, where a single class is fragmented into multiple pseudo-classes. To overcome these limitations, we propose a test-time adaptation framework that enables learning through discovery. It incorporates two complementary strategies: a semantic-aware prototype update and a stable test-time encoder update. The former dynamically refines class prototypes to enhance classification, whereas the latter integrates new information directly into the parameter space. Together, these components allow the model to continuously expand its knowledge base with newly encountered samples. Furthermore, we introduce a margin-aware logit calibration in the offline stage to enlarge inter-class margins and improve intra-class compactness, thereby reserving embedding space for future class discovery. Experiments on standard OCD benchmarks demonstrate that our method substantially outperforms existing hash-based state-of-the-art approaches, yielding notable improvements in novel-class accuracy and effectively mitigating category explosion. The code is publicly available at blue{https://github.com/ynanwu/TALON}.

Most recent test-time adaptation methods focus on only classification tasks, use specialized network architectures, destroy model calibration or rely on lightweight information from the source domain. To tackle these issues, this paper proposes a novel Test-time Self-Learning method with automatic Adversarial augmentation dubbed TeSLA for adapting a pre-trained source model to the unlabeled streaming test data. In contrast to conventional self-learning methods based on cross-entropy, we introduce a new test-time loss function through an implicitly tight connection with the mutual information and online knowledge distillation. Furthermore, we propose a learnable efficient adversarial augmentation module that further enhances online knowledge distillation by simulating high entropy augmented images. Our method achieves state-of-the-art classification and segmentation results on several benchmarks and types of domain shifts, particularly on challenging measurement shifts of medical images. TeSLA also benefits from several desirable properties compared to competing methods in terms of calibration, uncertainty metrics, insensitivity to model architectures, and source training strategies, all supported by extensive ablations. Our code and models are available on GitHub.

The remarkable performance of the o1 model in complex reasoning demonstrates that test-time computing scaling can further unlock the model's potential, enabling powerful System-2 thinking. However, there is still a lack of comprehensive surveys for test-time computing scaling. We trace the concept of test-time computing back to System-1 models. In System-1 models, test-time computing addresses distribution shifts and improves robustness and generalization through parameter updating, input modification, representation editing, and output calibration. In System-2 models, it enhances the model's reasoning ability to solve complex problems through repeated sampling, self-correction, and tree search. We organize this survey according to the trend of System-1 to System-2 thinking, highlighting the key role of test-time computing in the transition from System-1 models to weak System-2 models, and then to strong System-2 models. We also point out a few possible future directions.

Existing Multi-Agent Systems (MAS) typically rely on static, homogeneous model configurations, limiting their ability to exploit the distinct strengths of differently post-trained models. To address this, we introduce Team-of-Thoughts, a novel MAS architecture that leverages the complementary capabilities of heterogeneous agents via an orchestrator-tool paradigm. Our framework introduces two key mechanisms to optimize performance: (1) an orchestrator calibration scheme that identifies models with superior coordination capabilities, and (2) a self-assessment protocol where tool agents profile their own domain expertise to account for variations in post-training skills. During inference, the orchestrator dynamically activates the most suitable tool agents based on these proficiency profiles. Experiments on five reasoning and code generation benchmarks show that Team-of-Thoughts delivers consistently superior task performance. Notably, on AIME24 and LiveCodeBench, our approach achieves accuracies of 96.67% and 72.53%, respectively, substantially outperforming homogeneous role-play baselines, which score 80% and 65.93%.

Test-time adaptation (TTA) seeks to tackle potential distribution shifts between training and test data by adapting a given model w.r.t. any test sample. Although recent TTA has shown promising performance, we still face two key challenges: 1) prior methods perform backpropagation for each test sample, resulting in unbearable optimization costs to many applications; 2) while existing TTA can significantly improve the test performance on out-of-distribution data, they often suffer from severe performance degradation on in-distribution data after TTA (known as forgetting). To this end, we have proposed an Efficient Anti-Forgetting Test-Time Adaptation (EATA) method which develops an active sample selection criterion to identify reliable and non-redundant samples for test-time entropy minimization. To alleviate forgetting, EATA introduces a Fisher regularizer estimated from test samples to constrain important model parameters from drastic changes. However, in EATA, the adopted entropy loss consistently assigns higher confidence to predictions even for samples that are underlying uncertain, leading to overconfident predictions. To tackle this, we further propose EATA with Calibration (EATA-C) to separately exploit the reducible model uncertainty and the inherent data uncertainty for calibrated TTA. Specifically, we measure the model uncertainty by the divergence between predictions from the full network and its sub-networks, on which we propose a divergence loss to encourage consistent predictions instead of overconfident ones. To further recalibrate prediction confidence, we utilize the disagreement among predicted labels as an indicator of the data uncertainty, and then devise a min-max entropy regularizer to selectively increase and decrease prediction confidence for different samples. Experiments on image classification and semantic segmentation verify the effectiveness of our methods.

Agentic search requires language model agents to explore many sources and answer complex information-seeking questions. Scaling test-time compute is a promising way to improve these agents, but current approaches can fail, because correct answers are often sparse and score-based selection depends on model calibration. We propose FineVerify, a fine-grained self-verification framework that decomposes each question into checkable sub-questions, verifies sampled candidates against each sub-question, and selects the candidate with the highest aggregated score. This per-check structure turns selection into simpler local judgments and produces scores under the same explicit criteria. Across four agentic search benchmarks and two models, FineVerify consistently outperforms standard scaling baselines. With only four sampled trajectories, it improves GPT-5-mini by 8.2 accuracy points and Gemini-3-flash by 5.6% on average. With 12 samples, FineVerify enables GPT-5-mini to surpass frontier GPT-5 on BrowseComp-Plus. Beyond accuracy, FineVerify produces interpretable verification traces that help audit benchmark errors, suggesting broader applications for inspecting agentic search systems. Code and data are available at https://github.com/XuZhao0/fineverify

Real-world time series often exhibit a non-stationary nature, degrading the performance of pre-trained forecasting models. Test-Time Adaptation (TTA) addresses this by adjusting models during inference, but existing methods typically update the full model, increasing memory and compute costs. We propose PETSA, a parameter-efficient method that adapts forecasters at test time by only updating small calibration modules on the input and output. PETSA uses low-rank adapters and dynamic gating to adjust representations without retraining. To maintain accuracy despite limited adaptation capacity, we introduce a specialized loss combining three components: (1) a robust term, (2) a frequency-domain term to preserve periodicity, and (3) a patch-wise structural term for structural alignment. PETSA improves the adaptability of various forecasting backbones while requiring fewer parameters than baselines. Experimental results on benchmark datasets show that PETSA achieves competitive or better performance across all horizons. Our code is available at: https://github.com/BorealisAI/PETSA

Sleep staging models often degrade when deployed on patients with unseen physiology or recording conditions. We propose a streaming, source-free test-time adaptation (TTA) recipe that combines entropy minimization (Tent) with Batch-Norm statistic refresh and two safety rails: an entropy gate to pause adaptation on uncertain windows and an EMA-based reset to reel back drift. On Sleep-EDF Expanded, using single-lead EEG (Fpz-Cz, 100 Hz, 30s epochs; R&K to AASM mapping), we show consistent gains over a frozen baseline at seconds-level latency and minimal memory, reporting per-stage metrics and Cohen's k. The method is model-agnostic, requires no source data or patient calibration, and is practical for on-device or bedside use.

Test-time adaptation is a special setting of unsupervised domain adaptation where a trained model on the source domain has to adapt to the target domain without accessing source data. We propose a novel way to leverage self-supervised contrastive learning to facilitate target feature learning, along with an online pseudo labeling scheme with refinement that significantly denoises pseudo labels. The contrastive learning task is applied jointly with pseudo labeling, contrasting positive and negative pairs constructed similarly as MoCo but with source-initialized encoder, and excluding same-class negative pairs indicated by pseudo labels. Meanwhile, we produce pseudo labels online and refine them via soft voting among their nearest neighbors in the target feature space, enabled by maintaining a memory queue. Our method, AdaContrast, achieves state-of-the-art performance on major benchmarks while having several desirable properties compared to existing works, including memory efficiency, insensitivity to hyper-parameters, and better model calibration. Project page: sites.google.com/view/adacontrast.

Large Language Models (LLMs) often rely on long chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning to solve complex tasks. While effective, these trajectories are frequently inefficient, leading to high latency from excessive token generation, or unstable reasoning that alternates between underthinking (shallow, inconsistent steps) and overthinking (repetitive, verbose reasoning). In this work, we study the structure of reasoning trajectories and uncover specialized attention heads that correlate with distinct cognitive behaviors such as verification and backtracking. By lightly intervening on these heads at inference time, we can steer the model away from inefficient modes. Building on this insight, we propose CREST, a training-free method for Cognitive REasoning Steering at Test-time. CREST has two components: (1) an offline calibration step that identifies cognitive heads and derives head-specific steering vectors, and (2) an inference-time procedure that rotates hidden representations to suppress components along those vectors. CREST adaptively suppresses unproductive reasoning behaviors, yielding both higher accuracy and lower computational cost. Across diverse reasoning benchmarks and models, CREST improves accuracy by up to 17.5% while reducing token usage by 37.6%, offering a simple and effective pathway to faster, more reliable LLM reasoning.

Reconstructing 3D from a single view image is a long-standing challenge. One of the popular approaches to tackle this problem is learning-based methods, but dealing with the test cases unfamiliar with training data (Out-of-distribution; OoD) introduces an additional challenge. To adapt for unseen samples in test time, we propose MeTTA, a test-time adaptation (TTA) exploiting generative prior. We design joint optimization of 3D geometry, appearance, and pose to handle OoD cases with only a single view image. However, the alignment between the reference image and the 3D shape via the estimated viewpoint could be erroneous, which leads to ambiguity. To address this ambiguity, we carefully design learnable virtual cameras and their self-calibration. In our experiments, we demonstrate that MeTTA effectively deals with OoD scenarios at failure cases of existing learning-based 3D reconstruction models and enables obtaining a realistic appearance with physically based rendering (PBR) textures.

Large Reasoning Models have demonstrated remarkable performance with the advancement of test-time scaling techniques, which enhances prediction accuracy by generating multiple candidate responses and selecting the most reliable answer. While prior work has analyzed that internal model signals like confidence scores can partly indicate response correctness and exhibit a distributional correlation with accuracy, such distributional information has not been fully utilized to guide answer selection. Motivated by this, we propose DistriVoting, which incorporates distributional priors as another signal alongside confidence during voting. Specifically, our method (1) first decomposes the mixed confidence distribution into positive and negative components using Gaussian Mixture Models, (2) then applies a reject filter based on positive/negative samples from them to mitigate overlap between the two distributions. Besides, to further alleviate the overlap from the perspective of distribution itself, we propose SelfStepConf, which uses step-level confidence to dynamically adjust inference process, increasing the separation between the two distributions to improve the reliability of confidences in voting. Experiments across 16 models and 5 benchmarks demonstrate that our method significantly outperforms state-of-the-art approaches.

Large Language Models deployed as question answering tools require robust calibration to avoid overconfidence. We systematically evaluate how reasoning capabilities and budget affect confidence assessment accuracy, using the ClimateX dataset (Lacombe et al., 2023) and expanding it to human and planetary health. Our key finding challenges the "test-time scaling" paradigm: while recent reasoning LLMs achieve 48.7% accuracy in assessing expert confidence, increasing reasoning budgets consistently impairs rather than improves calibration. Extended reasoning leads to systematic overconfidence that worsens with longer thinking budgets, producing diminishing and negative returns beyond modest computational investments. Conversely, search-augmented generation dramatically outperforms pure reasoning, achieving 89.3% accuracy by retrieving relevant evidence. Our results suggest that information access, rather than reasoning depth or inference budget, may be the critical bottleneck for improved confidence calibration of knowledge-intensive tasks.

Graphical User Interface (GUI) grounding aims to translate natural language instructions into executable screen coordinates, enabling automated GUI interaction. Nevertheless, incorrect grounding can result in costly, hard-to-reverse actions (e.g., erroneous payment approvals), raising concerns about model reliability. In this paper, we introduce SafeGround, an uncertainty-aware framework for GUI grounding models that enables risk-aware predictions through calibrations before testing. SafeGround leverages a distribution-aware uncertainty quantification method to capture the spatial dispersion of stochastic samples from outputs of any given model. Then, through the calibration process, SafeGround derives a test-time decision threshold with statistically guaranteed false discovery rate (FDR) control. We apply SafeGround on multiple GUI grounding models for the challenging ScreenSpot-Pro benchmark. Experimental results show that our uncertainty measure consistently outperforms existing baselines in distinguishing correct from incorrect predictions, while the calibrated threshold reliably enables rigorous risk control and potentials of substantial system-level accuracy improvements. Across multiple GUI grounding models, SafeGround improves system-level accuracy by up to 5.38% percentage points over Gemini-only inference.

We address the neural network robustness problem by adding Similarity (i.e., correctly predicted depth-matches into training)-awareness and Distance-to-training-distribution-awareness to the existing output Magnitude (i.e., decision-boundary)-awareness of the softmax function. The resulting SDM activation function provides strong signals of the relative epistemic (reducible) predictive uncertainty. We use this novel behavior to further address the complementary HCI problem of mapping the output to human-interpretable summary statistics over relevant partitions of a held-out calibration set. Estimates of prediction-conditional uncertainty are obtained via a parsimonious learned transform over the class-conditional empirical CDFs of the output of a final-layer SDM activation function. For decision-making and as an intrinsic model check, estimates of class-conditional accuracy are obtained by further partitioning the high-probability regions of this calibrated output into class-conditional, region-specific CDFs. The uncertainty estimates from SDM calibration are remarkably robust to test-time distribution shifts and out-of-distribution inputs; incorporate awareness of the effective sample size; provide estimates of uncertainty from the learning and data splitting processes; and are well-suited for selective classification and conditional branching for additional test-time compute based on the predictive uncertainty, as for selective LLM generation, routing, and composition over multiple models and retrieval. Finally, we construct SDM networks, LLMs with uncertainty-aware verification and interpretability-by-exemplar as intrinsic properties. We provide open-source software implementing these results.

LLM-based LEGO assembly generation requires both semantic grounding and physical feasibility. We identify a data-induced failure mode, PhysHack, in which the assemblies satisfy physical-validity constraints while producing structures that are geometrically misaligned, semantically inconsistent, or poorly calibrated. To address this challenge, we propose a model-based data selection approach that uses only a small fraction of the training data while improving physically grounded LEGO assembly generation. Building on the selected trajectories, we introduce PVPO, a sample-efficient reinforcement learning method that couples physical feasibility with voxel-space geometric rewards. Our results show that physical validity alone is an insufficient proxy for reliable physical reasoning: models can learn to generate valid structures without preserving semantic or geometric fidelity. Experiments across model backbones and test-time scaling settings demonstrate that PVPO improves structural and semantic alignment, physical validity, structural stability, and calibration, while reducing reliance on extensive post-hoc rejection sampling. In particular, results on calibration show that PVPO mitigates PhysHack by making test-time selection more predictive of semantic and structural quality.

Few-shot 3D point cloud segmentation (FS-PCS) aims at generalizing models to segment novel categories with minimal annotated support samples. While existing FS-PCS methods have shown promise, they primarily focus on unimodal point cloud inputs, overlooking the potential benefits of leveraging multimodal information. In this paper, we address this gap by introducing a multimodal FS-PCS setup, utilizing textual labels and the potentially available 2D image modality. Under this easy-to-achieve setup, we present the MultiModal Few-Shot SegNet (MM-FSS), a model effectively harnessing complementary information from multiple modalities. MM-FSS employs a shared backbone with two heads to extract intermodal and unimodal visual features, and a pretrained text encoder to generate text embeddings. To fully exploit the multimodal information, we propose a Multimodal Correlation Fusion (MCF) module to generate multimodal correlations, and a Multimodal Semantic Fusion (MSF) module to refine the correlations using text-aware semantic guidance. Additionally, we propose a simple yet effective Test-time Adaptive Cross-modal Calibration (TACC) technique to mitigate training bias, further improving generalization. Experimental results on S3DIS and ScanNet datasets demonstrate significant performance improvements achieved by our method. The efficacy of our approach indicates the benefits of leveraging commonly-ignored free modalities for FS-PCS, providing valuable insights for future research. The code is available at https://github.com/ZhaochongAn/Multimodality-3D-Few-Shot

Self-supervised learning (SSL) underpins modern audio deepfake detection, yet most prior work centers on a single large wav2vec2-XLSR backbone, leaving compact under studied. We present RAPTOR, Representation Aware Pairwise-gated Transformer for Out-of-domain Recognition a controlled study of compact SSL backbones from the HuBERT and WavLM within a unified pairwise-gated fusion detector, evaluated across 14 cross-domain benchmarks. We show that multilingual HuBERT pre-training is the primary driver of cross-domain robustness, enabling 100M models to match larger and commercial systems. Beyond EER, we introduce a test-time augmentation protocol with perturbation-based aleatoric uncertainty to expose calibration differences invisible to standard metrics: WavLM variants exhibit overconfident miscalibration under perturbation, whereas iterative mHuBERT remains stable. These findings indicate that SSL pre-training trajectory, not model scale, drives reliable audio deepfake detection.

When language models (LMs) are trained via reinforcement learning (RL) to generate natural language "reasoning chains", their performance improves on a variety of difficult question answering tasks. Today, almost all successful applications of RL for reasoning use binary reward functions that evaluate the correctness of LM outputs. Because such reward functions do not penalize guessing or low-confidence outputs, they often have the unintended side-effect of degrading calibration and increasing the rate at which LMs generate incorrect responses (or "hallucinate") in other problem domains. This paper describes RLCR (Reinforcement Learning with Calibration Rewards), an approach to training reasoning models that jointly improves accuracy and calibrated confidence estimation. During RLCR, LMs generate both predictions and numerical confidence estimates after reasoning. They are trained to optimize a reward function that augments a binary correctness score with a Brier score -- a scoring rule for confidence estimates that incentivizes calibrated prediction. We first prove that this reward function (or any analogous reward function that uses a bounded, proper scoring rule) yields models whose predictions are both accurate and well-calibrated. We next show that across diverse datasets, RLCR substantially improves calibration with no loss in accuracy, on both in-domain and out-of-domain evaluations -- outperforming both ordinary RL training and classifiers trained to assign post-hoc confidence scores. While ordinary RL hurts calibration, RLCR improves it. Finally, we demonstrate that verbalized confidence can be leveraged at test time to improve accuracy and calibration via confidence-weighted scaling methods. Our results show that explicitly optimizing for calibration can produce more generally reliable reasoning models.

Industrial visual sim-to-real is often described as transferring from synthetic images to real images, but industrial deployment usually involves a broader mismatch between available evidence and required decisions. A system may be built from CAD renderings, simulated RGB-D observations, normal reference images, synthetic defects, pretrained feature spaces, or language prompts, yet deployed under different sensors, lighting, materials, fixtures, calibration, production variation, and rare defect modes. This review reframes industrial visual sim-to-real as a domain-gap problem organized by prior availability. We distinguish CAD-available settings, where explicit object geometry can support rendering, calibration, pose estimation, segmentation, and test-time geometric verification; CAD-unavailable settings, where geometry is replaced by normal-reference appearance, feature distributions, teacher-student residuals, synthetic anomaly assumptions, foundation features, or vision-language priors; and boundary-prior settings, where approximate models, templates, reference views, or semantic correspondences preserve only part of the CAD role. This framing connects CAD-based detection and 6D pose-estimation literature with industrial anomaly and surface-inspection literature that is usually reviewed separately. To make the taxonomy concrete, we use empirical anchors on T-LESS/BOP, MVTec AD, and VisA. The anchors show that CAD render count alone does not close transfer; source-distribution design, detector capacity, and small real calibration can matter more. They also show that CAD at test time creates a distinct verification channel through mask, pose, and depth consistency, whereas CAD-unavailable inspection relies on calibrated normality and feature deviation. The review therefore argues against a single cross-task leaderboard and instead asks what prior grounds the deployment decision.

Early time classification algorithms aim to label a stream of features without processing the full input stream, while maintaining accuracy comparable to that achieved by applying the classifier to the entire input. In this paper, we introduce a statistical framework that can be applied to any sequential classifier, formulating a calibrated stopping rule. This data-driven rule attains finite-sample, distribution-free control of the accuracy gap between full and early-time classification. We start by presenting a novel method that builds on the Learn-then-Test calibration framework to control this gap marginally, on average over i.i.d. instances. As this algorithm tends to yield an excessively high accuracy gap for early halt times, our main contribution is the proposal of a framework that controls a stronger notion of error, where the accuracy gap is controlled conditionally on the accumulated halt times. Numerical experiments demonstrate the effectiveness, applicability, and usefulness of our method. We show that our proposed early stopping mechanism reduces up to 94% of timesteps used for classification while achieving rigorous accuracy gap control.

In this paper, we propose Test-Time Training, a general approach for improving the performance of predictive models when training and test data come from different distributions. We turn a single unlabeled test sample into a self-supervised learning problem, on which we update the model parameters before making a prediction. This also extends naturally to data in an online stream. Our simple approach leads to improvements on diverse image classification benchmarks aimed at evaluating robustness to distribution shifts.

Deep learning models have demonstrated exceptional performance across a wide range of computer vision tasks. However, their performance often degrades significantly when faced with distribution shifts, such as domain or dataset changes. Test-Time Training (TTT) has emerged as an effective method to enhance model robustness by incorporating an auxiliary unsupervised task during training and leveraging it for model updates at test time. In this work, we introduce CTA (Cross-Task Alignment), a novel approach for improving TTT. Unlike existing TTT methods, CTA does not require a specialized model architecture and instead takes inspiration from the success of multi-modal contrastive learning to align a supervised encoder with a self-supervised one. This process enforces alignment between the learned representations of both models, thereby mitigating the risk of gradient interference, preserving the intrinsic robustness of self-supervised learning and enabling more semantically meaningful updates at test-time. Experimental results demonstrate substantial improvements in robustness and generalization over the state-of-the-art on several benchmark datasets.

Machine learning methods strive to acquire a robust model during the training process that can effectively generalize to test samples, even in the presence of distribution shifts. However, these methods often suffer from performance degradation due to unknown test distributions. Test-time adaptation (TTA), an emerging paradigm, has the potential to adapt a pre-trained model to unlabeled data during testing, before making predictions. Recent progress in this paradigm has highlighted the significant benefits of using unlabeled data to train self-adapted models prior to inference. In this survey, we categorize TTA into several distinct groups based on the form of test data, namely, test-time domain adaptation, test-time batch adaptation, and online test-time adaptation. For each category, we provide a comprehensive taxonomy of advanced algorithms and discuss various learning scenarios. Furthermore, we analyze relevant applications of TTA and discuss open challenges and promising areas for future research. For a comprehensive list of TTA methods, kindly refer to https://github.com/tim-learn/awesome-test-time-adaptation.

Test-time adaptation (TTA) intends to adapt the pretrained model to test distributions with only unlabeled test data streams. Most of the previous TTA methods have achieved great success on simple test data streams such as independently sampled data from single or multiple distributions. However, these attempts may fail in dynamic scenarios of real-world applications like autonomous driving, where the environments gradually change and the test data is sampled correlatively over time. In this work, we explore such practical test data streams to deploy the model on the fly, namely practical test-time adaptation (PTTA). To do so, we elaborate a Robust Test-Time Adaptation (RoTTA) method against the complex data stream in PTTA. More specifically, we present a robust batch normalization scheme to estimate the normalization statistics. Meanwhile, a memory bank is utilized to sample category-balanced data with consideration of timeliness and uncertainty. Further, to stabilize the training procedure, we develop a time-aware reweighting strategy with a teacher-student model. Extensive experiments prove that RoTTA enables continual testtime adaptation on the correlatively sampled data streams. Our method is easy to implement, making it a good choice for rapid deployment. The code is publicly available at https://github.com/BIT-DA/RoTTA

Test-Time Adaptation (TTA) has recently emerged as a promising approach for tackling the robustness challenge under distribution shifts. However, the lack of consistent settings and systematic studies in prior literature hinders thorough assessments of existing methods. To address this issue, we present TTAB, a test-time adaptation benchmark that encompasses ten state-of-the-art algorithms, a diverse array of distribution shifts, and two evaluation protocols. Through extensive experiments, our benchmark reveals three common pitfalls in prior efforts. First, selecting appropriate hyper-parameters, especially for model selection, is exceedingly difficult due to online batch dependency. Second, the effectiveness of TTA varies greatly depending on the quality and properties of the model being adapted. Third, even under optimal algorithmic conditions, none of the existing methods are capable of addressing all common types of distribution shifts. Our findings underscore the need for future research in the field to conduct rigorous evaluations on a broader set of models and shifts, and to re-examine the assumptions behind the empirical success of TTA. Our code is available at https://github.com/lins-lab/ttab.

This paper proposes a new metric to measure the calibration error of probabilistic binary classifiers, called test-based calibration error (TCE). TCE incorporates a novel loss function based on a statistical test to examine the extent to which model predictions differ from probabilities estimated from data. It offers (i) a clear interpretation, (ii) a consistent scale that is unaffected by class imbalance, and (iii) an enhanced visual representation with repect to the standard reliability diagram. In addition, we introduce an optimality criterion for the binning procedure of calibration error metrics based on a minimal estimation error of the empirical probabilities. We provide a novel computational algorithm for optimal bins under bin-size constraints. We demonstrate properties of TCE through a range of experiments, including multiple real-world imbalanced datasets and ImageNet 1000.

Test-time adaptation (TTA) seeks to tackle potential distribution shifts between training and testing data by adapting a given model w.r.t. any testing sample. This task is particularly important for deep models when the test environment changes frequently. Although some recent attempts have been made to handle this task, we still face two practical challenges: 1) existing methods have to perform backward computation for each test sample, resulting in unbearable prediction cost to many applications; 2) while existing TTA solutions can significantly improve the test performance on out-of-distribution data, they often suffer from severe performance degradation on in-distribution data after TTA (known as catastrophic forgetting). In this paper, we point out that not all the test samples contribute equally to model adaptation, and high-entropy ones may lead to noisy gradients that could disrupt the model. Motivated by this, we propose an active sample selection criterion to identify reliable and non-redundant samples, on which the model is updated to minimize the entropy loss for test-time adaptation. Furthermore, to alleviate the forgetting issue, we introduce a Fisher regularizer to constrain important model parameters from drastic changes, where the Fisher importance is estimated from test samples with generated pseudo labels. Extensive experiments on CIFAR-10-C, ImageNet-C, and ImageNet-R verify the effectiveness of our proposed method.

Test-time adaptation (TTA) aims to adapt a pre-trained model to the target domain in a batch-by-batch manner during inference. While label distributions often exhibit imbalances in real-world scenarios, most previous TTA approaches typically assume that both source and target domain datasets have balanced label distribution. Due to the fact that certain classes appear more frequently in certain domains (e.g., buildings in cities, trees in forests), it is natural that the label distribution shifts as the domain changes. However, we discover that the majority of existing TTA methods fail to address the coexistence of covariate and label shifts. To tackle this challenge, we propose a novel label shift adapter that can be incorporated into existing TTA approaches to deal with label shifts during the TTA process effectively. Specifically, we estimate the label distribution of the target domain to feed it into the label shift adapter. Subsequently, the label shift adapter produces optimal parameters for the target label distribution. By predicting only the parameters for a part of the pre-trained source model, our approach is computationally efficient and can be easily applied, regardless of the model architectures. Through extensive experiments, we demonstrate that integrating our strategy with TTA approaches leads to substantial performance improvements under the joint presence of label and covariate shifts.

Deploying models on target domain data subject to distribution shift requires adaptation. Test-time training (TTT) emerges as a solution to this adaptation under a realistic scenario where access to full source domain data is not available and instant inference on target domain is required. Despite many efforts into TTT, there is a confusion over the experimental settings, thus leading to unfair comparisons. In this work, we first revisit TTT assumptions and categorize TTT protocols by two key factors. Among the multiple protocols, we adopt a realistic sequential test-time training (sTTT) protocol, under which we further develop a test-time anchored clustering (TTAC) approach to enable stronger test-time feature learning. TTAC discovers clusters in both source and target domain and match the target clusters to the source ones to improve generalization. Pseudo label filtering and iterative updating are developed to improve the effectiveness and efficiency of anchored clustering. We demonstrate that under all TTT protocols TTAC consistently outperforms the state-of-the-art methods on six TTT datasets. We hope this work will provide a fair benchmarking of TTT methods and future research should be compared within respective protocols. A demo code is available at https://github.com/Gorilla-Lab-SCUT/TTAC.

Prior work has established test-time training (TTT) as a general framework to further improve a trained model at test time. Before making a prediction on each test instance, the model is trained on the same instance using a self-supervised task, such as image reconstruction with masked autoencoders. We extend TTT to the streaming setting, where multiple test instances - video frames in our case - arrive in temporal order. Our extension is online TTT: The current model is initialized from the previous model, then trained on the current frame and a small window of frames immediately before. Online TTT significantly outperforms the fixed-model baseline for four tasks, on three real-world datasets. The relative improvement is 45% and 66% for instance and panoptic segmentation. Surprisingly, online TTT also outperforms its offline variant that accesses more information, training on all frames from the entire test video regardless of temporal order. This differs from previous findings using synthetic videos. We conceptualize locality as the advantage of online over offline TTT. We analyze the role of locality with ablations and a theory based on bias-variance trade-off.

In industrial settings, surface defects on steel can significantly compromise its service life and elevate potential safety risks. Traditional defect detection methods predominantly rely on manual inspection, which suffers from low efficiency and high costs. Although automated defect detection approaches based on Convolutional Neural Networks(e.g., Mask R-CNN) have advanced rapidly, their reliability remains challenged due to data annotation uncertainties during deep model training and overfitting issues. These limitations may lead to detection deviations when processing the given new test samples, rendering automated detection processes unreliable. To address this challenge, we first evaluate the detection model's practical performance through calibration data that satisfies the independent and identically distributed (i.i.d) condition with test data. Specifically, we define a loss function for each calibration sample to quantify detection error rates, such as the complement of recall rate and false discovery rate. Subsequently, we derive a statistically rigorous threshold based on a user-defined risk level to identify high-probability defective pixels in test images, thereby constructing prediction sets (e.g., defect regions). This methodology ensures that the expected error rate (mean error rate) on the test set remains strictly bounced by the predefined risk level. Additionally, we observe a negative correlation between the average prediction set size and the risk level on the test set, establishing a statistically rigorous metric for assessing detection model uncertainty. Furthermore, our study demonstrates robust and efficient control over the expected test set error rate across varying calibration-to-test partitioning ratios, validating the method's adaptability and operational effectiveness.

As enthusiasm for scaling computation (data and parameters) in the pretraining era gradually diminished, test-time scaling (TTS), also referred to as ``test-time computing'' has emerged as a prominent research focus. Recent studies demonstrate that TTS can further elicit the problem-solving capabilities of large language models (LLMs), enabling significant breakthroughs not only in specialized reasoning tasks, such as mathematics and coding, but also in general tasks like open-ended Q&A. However, despite the explosion of recent efforts in this area, there remains an urgent need for a comprehensive survey offering a systemic understanding. To fill this gap, we propose a unified, multidimensional framework structured along four core dimensions of TTS research: what to scale, how to scale, where to scale, and how well to scale. Building upon this taxonomy, we conduct an extensive review of methods, application scenarios, and assessment aspects, and present an organized decomposition that highlights the unique functional roles of individual techniques within the broader TTS landscape. From this analysis, we distill the major developmental trajectories of TTS to date and offer hands-on guidelines for practical deployment. Furthermore, we identify several open challenges and offer insights into promising future directions, including further scaling, clarifying the functional essence of techniques, generalizing to more tasks, and more attributions.

Deep Learning models have shown remarkable performance in a broad range of vision tasks. However, they are often vulnerable against domain shifts at test-time. Test-time training (TTT) methods have been developed in an attempt to mitigate these vulnerabilities, where a secondary task is solved at training time simultaneously with the main task, to be later used as an self-supervised proxy task at test-time. In this work, we propose a novel unsupervised TTT technique based on the maximization of Mutual Information between multi-scale feature maps and a discrete latent representation, which can be integrated to the standard training as an auxiliary clustering task. Experimental results demonstrate competitive classification performance on different popular test-time adaptation benchmarks.

Test-time scaling is a promising new approach to language modeling that uses extra test-time compute to improve performance. Recently, OpenAI's o1 model showed this capability but did not publicly share its methodology, leading to many replication efforts. We seek the simplest approach to achieve test-time scaling and strong reasoning performance. First, we curate a small dataset s1K of 1,000 questions paired with reasoning traces relying on three criteria we validate through ablations: difficulty, diversity, and quality. Second, we develop budget forcing to control test-time compute by forcefully terminating the model's thinking process or lengthening it by appending "Wait" multiple times to the model's generation when it tries to end. This can lead the model to double-check its answer, often fixing incorrect reasoning steps. After supervised finetuning the Qwen2.5-32B-Instruct language model on s1K and equipping it with budget forcing, our model s1 exceeds o1-preview on competition math questions by up to 27% (MATH and AIME24). Further, scaling s1 with budget forcing allows extrapolating beyond its performance without test-time intervention: from 50% to 57% on AIME24. Our model, data, and code are open-source at https://github.com/simplescaling/s1.

Recent empirical studies have explored the idea of continuing to train a model at test-time for a given task, known as test-time training (TTT), and have found it to yield significant performance improvements. However, there is limited understanding of why and when TTT is effective. Earlier explanations mostly focused on the observation that TTT may help when applied to out-of-distribution adaptation or used with privileged data. However, the growing scale of foundation models with most test data being in-distribution questions these explanations. We instead posit that foundation models remain globally underparameterized, with TTT providing a mechanism for specialization after generalization, focusing capacity on concepts relevant to the test task. Specifically, under the linear representation hypothesis, we propose a model in which TTT achieves a substantially smaller in-distribution test error than global training. We empirically validate our model's key assumptions by training a sparse autoencoder on ImageNet, showing that semantically related data points are explained by only a few shared concepts. Finally, we perform scaling studies across image and language tasks that confirm the practical implications of our model, identifying the regimes where specialization is most effective.

We present a simple and effective way to estimate the batch-norm statistics during test time, to fast adapt a source model to target test samples. Known as Test-Time Adaptation, most prior works studying this task follow two assumptions in their evaluation where (1) test samples come together as a large batch, and (2) all from a single test distribution. However, in practice, these two assumptions may not stand, the reasons for which we propose two new evaluation settings where batch sizes are arbitrary and multiple distributions are considered. Unlike the previous methods that require a large batch of single distribution during test time to calculate stable batch-norm statistics, our method avoid any dependency on large online batches and is able to estimate accurate batch-norm statistics with a single sample. The proposed method significantly outperforms the State-Of-The-Art in the newly proposed settings in Test-Time Adaptation Task, and also demonstrates improvements in various other settings such as Source-Free Unsupervised Domain Adaptation and Zero-Shot Classification.

Test-time adaptation (TTA) has shown to be effective at tackling distribution shifts between training and testing data by adapting a given model on test samples. However, the online model updating of TTA may be unstable and this is often a key obstacle preventing existing TTA methods from being deployed in the real world. Specifically, TTA may fail to improve or even harm the model performance when test data have: 1) mixed distribution shifts, 2) small batch sizes, and 3) online imbalanced label distribution shifts, which are quite common in practice. In this paper, we investigate the unstable reasons and find that the batch norm layer is a crucial factor hindering TTA stability. Conversely, TTA can perform more stably with batch-agnostic norm layers, \ie, group or layer norm. However, we observe that TTA with group and layer norms does not always succeed and still suffers many failure cases. By digging into the failure cases, we find that certain noisy test samples with large gradients may disturb the model adaption and result in collapsed trivial solutions, \ie, assigning the same class label for all samples. To address the above collapse issue, we propose a sharpness-aware and reliable entropy minimization method, called SAR, for further stabilizing TTA from two aspects: 1) remove partial noisy samples with large gradients, 2) encourage model weights to go to a flat minimum so that the model is robust to the remaining noisy samples. Promising results demonstrate that SAR performs more stably over prior methods and is computationally efficient under the above wild test scenarios.

Test-time scaling (TTS) has emerged as a new frontier for scaling the performance of Large Language Models. In test-time scaling, by using more computational resources during inference, LLMs can improve their reasoning process and task performance. Several approaches have emerged for TTS such as distilling reasoning traces from another model or exploring the vast decoding search space by employing a verifier. The verifiers serve as reward models that help score the candidate outputs from the decoding process to diligently explore the vast solution space and select the best outcome. This paradigm commonly termed has emerged as a superior approach owing to parameter free scaling at inference time and high performance gains. The verifiers could be prompt-based, fine-tuned as a discriminative or generative model to verify process paths, outcomes or both. Despite their widespread adoption, there is no detailed collection, clear categorization and discussion of diverse verification approaches and their training mechanisms. In this survey, we cover the diverse approaches in the literature and present a unified view of verifier training, types and their utility in test-time scaling. Our repository can be found at https://github.com/elixir-research-group/Verifierstesttimescaling.github.io.

Test Time Adaptation (TTA) addresses the problem of distribution shift by adapting a pretrained model to a new domain during inference. When faced with challenging shifts, most methods collapse and perform worse than the original pretrained model. In this paper, we find that not all layers are equally receptive to the adaptation, and the layers with the most misaligned gradients often cause performance degradation. To address this, we propose GALA, a novel layer selection criterion to identify the most beneficial updates to perform during test time adaptation. This criterion can also filter out unreliable samples with noisy gradients. Its simplicity allows seamless integration with existing TTA loss functions, thereby preventing degradation and focusing adaptation on the most trainable layers. This approach also helps to regularize adaptation to preserve the pretrained features, which are crucial for handling unseen domains. Through extensive experiments, we demonstrate that the proposed layer selection framework improves the performance of existing TTA approaches across multiple datasets, domain shifts, model architectures, and TTA losses.

Despite recent advancements in deep learning, deep neural networks continue to suffer from performance degradation when applied to new data that differs from training data. Test-time adaptation (TTA) aims to address this challenge by adapting a model to unlabeled data at test time. TTA can be applied to pretrained networks without modifying their training procedures, enabling them to utilize a well-formed source distribution for adaptation. One possible approach is to align the representation space of test samples to the source distribution (i.e., feature alignment). However, performing feature alignment in TTA is especially challenging in that access to labeled source data is restricted during adaptation. That is, a model does not have a chance to learn test data in a class-discriminative manner, which was feasible in other adaptation tasks (e.g., unsupervised domain adaptation) via supervised losses on the source data. Based on this observation, we propose a simple yet effective feature alignment loss, termed as Class-Aware Feature Alignment (CAFA), which simultaneously 1) encourages a model to learn target representations in a class-discriminative manner and 2) effectively mitigates the distribution shifts at test time. Our method does not require any hyper-parameters or additional losses, which are required in previous approaches. We conduct extensive experiments on 6 different datasets and show our proposed method consistently outperforms existing baselines.

How can we use AI to discover a new state of the art for a scientific problem? Prior work in test-time scaling, such as AlphaEvolve, performs search by prompting a frozen LLM. We perform reinforcement learning at test time, so the LLM can continue to train, but now with experience specific to the test problem. This form of continual learning is quite special, because its goal is to produce one great solution rather than many good ones on average, and to solve this very problem rather than generalize to other problems. Therefore, our learning objective and search subroutine are designed to prioritize the most promising solutions. We call this method Test-Time Training to Discover (TTT-Discover). Following prior work, we focus on problems with continuous rewards. We report results for every problem we attempted, across mathematics, GPU kernel engineering, algorithm design, and biology. TTT-Discover sets the new state of the art in almost all of them: (i) Erdős' minimum overlap problem and an autocorrelation inequality; (ii) a GPUMode kernel competition (up to 2times faster than prior art); (iii) past AtCoder algorithm competitions; and (iv) denoising problem in single-cell analysis. Our solutions are reviewed by experts or the organizers. All our results are achieved with an open model, OpenAI gpt-oss-120b, and can be reproduced with our publicly available code, in contrast to previous best results that required closed frontier models. Our test-time training runs are performed using Tinker, an API by Thinking Machines, with a cost of only a few hundred dollars per problem.

Test-time adaptation (TTA) is the problem of updating a pre-trained source model at inference time given test input(s) from a different target domain. Most existing TTA approaches assume the setting in which the target domain is stationary, i.e., all the test inputs come from a single target domain. However, in many practical settings, the test input distribution might exhibit a lifelong/continual shift over time. Moreover, existing TTA approaches also lack the ability to provide reliable uncertainty estimates, which is crucial when distribution shifts occur between the source and target domain. To address these issues, we present PETAL (Probabilistic lifElong Test-time Adaptation with seLf-training prior), which solves lifelong TTA using a probabilistic approach, and naturally results in (1) a student-teacher framework, where the teacher model is an exponential moving average of the student model, and (2) regularizing the model updates at inference time using the source model as a regularizer. To prevent model drift in the lifelong/continual TTA setting, we also propose a data-driven parameter restoration technique which contributes to reducing the error accumulation and maintaining the knowledge of recent domains by restoring only the irrelevant parameters. In terms of predictive error rate as well as uncertainty based metrics such as Brier score and negative log-likelihood, our method achieves better results than the current state-of-the-art for online lifelong test-time adaptation across various benchmarks, such as CIFAR-10C, CIFAR-100C, ImageNetC, and ImageNet3DCC datasets. The source code for our approach is accessible at https://github.com/dhanajitb/petal.

Applications such as weather forecasting and personalized medicine demand models that output calibrated probability estimates---those representative of the true likelihood of a prediction. Most models are not calibrated out of the box but are recalibrated by post-processing model outputs. We find in this work that popular recalibration methods like Platt scaling and temperature scaling are (i) less calibrated than reported, and (ii) current techniques cannot estimate how miscalibrated they are. An alternative method, histogram binning, has measurable calibration error but is sample inefficient---it requires O(B/ε^2) samples, compared to O(1/ε^2) for scaling methods, where B is the number of distinct probabilities the model can output. To get the best of both worlds, we introduce the scaling-binning calibrator, which first fits a parametric function to reduce variance and then bins the function values to actually ensure calibration. This requires only O(1/ε^2 + B) samples. Next, we show that we can estimate a model's calibration error more accurately using an estimator from the meteorological community---or equivalently measure its calibration error with fewer samples (O(B) instead of O(B)). We validate our approach with multiclass calibration experiments on CIFAR-10 and ImageNet, where we obtain a 35% lower calibration error than histogram binning and, unlike scaling methods, guarantees on true calibration. In these experiments, we also estimate the calibration error and ECE more accurately than the commonly used plugin estimators. We implement all these methods in a Python library: https://pypi.org/project/uncertainty-calibration

Model calibration aims to align confidence with prediction correctness. The Cross-Entropy (CE) loss is widely used for calibrator training, which enforces the model to increase confidence on the ground truth class. However, we find the CE loss has intrinsic limitations. For example, for a narrow misclassification, a calibrator trained by the CE loss often produces high confidence on the wrongly predicted class (e.g., a test sample is wrongly classified and its softmax score on the ground truth class is around 0.4), which is undesirable. In this paper, we propose a new post-hoc calibration objective derived from the aim of calibration. Intuitively, the proposed objective function asks that the calibrator decrease model confidence on wrongly predicted samples and increase confidence on correctly predicted samples. Because a sample itself has insufficient ability to indicate correctness, we use its transformed versions (e.g., rotated, greyscaled and color-jittered) during calibrator training. Trained on an in-distribution validation set and tested with isolated, individual test samples, our method achieves competitive calibration performance on both in-distribution and out-of-distribution test sets compared with the state of the art. Further, our analysis points out the difference between our method and commonly used objectives such as CE loss and mean square error loss, where the latters sometimes deviates from the calibration aim.

Recent test-time adaptation methods heavily rely on nuanced adjustments of batch normalization (BN) parameters. However, one critical assumption often goes overlooked: that of independently and identically distributed (i.i.d.) test batches with respect to unknown labels. This oversight leads to skewed BN statistics and undermines the reliability of the model under non-i.i.d. scenarios. To tackle this challenge, this paper presents a novel method termed 'Un-Mixing Test-Time Normalization Statistics' (UnMix-TNS). Our method re-calibrates the statistics for each instance within a test batch by mixing it with multiple distinct statistics components, thus inherently simulating the i.i.d. scenario. The core of this method hinges on a distinctive online unmixing procedure that continuously updates these statistics components by incorporating the most similar instances from new test batches. Remarkably generic in its design, UnMix-TNS seamlessly integrates with a wide range of leading test-time adaptation methods and pre-trained architectures equipped with BN layers. Empirical evaluations corroborate the robustness of UnMix-TNS under varied scenarios-ranging from single to continual and mixed domain shifts, particularly excelling with temporally correlated test data and corrupted non-i.i.d. real-world streams. This adaptability is maintained even with very small batch sizes or single instances. Our results highlight UnMix-TNS's capacity to markedly enhance stability and performance across various benchmarks. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/devavratTomar/unmixtns.

Deep neural networks demonstrate strong performance under aligned training-test distributions. However, real-world test data often exhibit domain shifts. Test-Time Adaptation (TTA) addresses this challenge by adapting the model to test data during inference. While most TTA studies assume that the training and test data share the same class set (closed-set TTA), real-world scenarios often involve open-set data (open-set TTA), which can degrade closed-set accuracy. A recent study showed that identifying open-set data during adaptation and maximizing its entropy is an effective solution. However, the previous method relies on the source model for filtering, resulting in suboptimal filtering accuracy on domain-shifted test data. In contrast, we found that the adapting model, which learns domain knowledge from noisy test streams, tends to be unstable and leads to error accumulation when used for filtering. To address this problem, we propose Primary-Auxiliary Filtering (PAF), which employs an auxiliary filter to validate data filtered by the primary filter. Furthermore, we propose Knowledge-Integrated Prediction (KIP), which calibrates the outputs of the adapting model, EMA model, and source model to integrate their complementary knowledge for OSTTA. We validate our approach across diverse closed-set and open-set datasets. Our method enhances both closed-set accuracy and open-set discrimination over existing methods. The code is available at https://github.com/powerpowe/PAF-KIP-OSTTA .

Test-Time Scaling (TTS) is a promising approach to progressively elicit the model's intelligence during inference. Recently, training-based TTS methods, such as continued reinforcement learning (RL), have further surged in popularity, while training-free TTS methods are gradually fading from prominence. However, the additional computation overhead of training amplifies the burden on test-time scaling. In this paper, we focus on training-free TTS methods for reasoning. We first design Conditional Step-level Self-refinement, a fine-grained sequential scaling method guided by process verification. On top of its effectiveness, we further combine it with other classical parallel scaling methods at the step level, to introduce a novel inference paradigm called Hybrid Test-Time Scaling. Extensive experiments on five instruction-tuned LLMs across different scales (3B-14B) and families demonstrate that hybrid strategy incorporating various training-free TTS methods at a fine granularity has considerable potential for expanding the reasoning performance boundaries of LLMs.

Test-time scaling is a powerful strategy for boosting the performance of large language models on complex reasoning tasks. While state-of-the-art approaches often employ generative verifiers to select the best solution from a pool of candidates, this method incurs prohibitive computational costs, limiting its practicality. In this work, we shift the focus to a more budget-aware paradigm: discriminative verification. We conduct a thorough empirical analysis and demonstrate that while discriminative verifiers may underperform in isolation, combining them with self-consistency in a hybrid approach creates a powerful and efficient test-time scaling mechanism. Notably, under a fixed compute budget, this hybrid approach surpasses state-of-the-art generative verification by a significant margin: achieving up to 15.3\% higher accuracy on AIME2025. Our findings establish that for practical, real-world applications, budget-aware scaling with discriminative verifiers is not only a "free" upgrade over self-consistency, but also a more effective and efficient alternative to costly generative techniques. Code is available at https://github.com/wang-research-lab/verification.

Deep learning models perform poorly when domain shifts exist between training and test data. Test-time adaptation (TTA) is a paradigm to mitigate this issue by adapting pre-trained models using only unlabeled test samples. However, existing TTA methods can fail under severe domain shifts, while recent active TTA approaches requiring full-class labels are impractical due to high labeling costs. To address this issue, we introduce a new setting of TTA with binary feedback. This setting uses a few binary feedback inputs from annotators to indicate whether model predictions are correct, thereby significantly reducing the labeling burden of annotators. Under the setting, we propose BiTTA, a novel dual-path optimization framework that leverages reinforcement learning to balance binary feedback-guided adaptation on uncertain samples with agreement-based self-adaptation on confident predictions. Experiments show BiTTA achieves 13.3%p accuracy improvements over state-of-the-art baselines, demonstrating its effectiveness in handling severe distribution shifts with minimal labeling effort. The source code is available at https://github.com/taeckyung/BiTTA.

Test-time training (TTT) methods explicitly update the weights of a model to adapt to the specific test instance, and they have found success in a variety of settings, including most recently language modeling and reasoning. To demystify this success, we investigate a gradient-based TTT algorithm for in-context learning, where we train a transformer model on the in-context demonstrations provided in the test prompt. Specifically, we provide a comprehensive theoretical characterization of linear transformers when the update rule is a single gradient step. Our theory (i) delineates the role of alignment between pretraining distribution and target task, (ii) demystifies how TTT can alleviate distribution shift, and (iii) quantifies the sample complexity of TTT including how it can significantly reduce the eventual sample size required for in-context learning. As our empirical contribution, we study the benefits of TTT for TabPFN, a tabular foundation model. In line with our theory, we demonstrate that TTT significantly reduces the required sample size for tabular classification (3 to 5 times fewer) unlocking substantial inference efficiency with a negligible training cost.

Increasing test-time computation has emerged as a promising direction for improving language model performance, particularly in scenarios where model finetuning is impractical or impossible due to computational constraints or private model weights. However, existing test-time search methods using a reward model (RM) often degrade in quality as compute scales, due to the over-optimization of what are inherently imperfect reward proxies. We introduce QAlign, a new test-time alignment approach. As we scale test-time compute, QAlign converges to sampling from the optimal aligned distribution for each individual prompt. By adopting recent advances in Markov chain Monte Carlo for text generation, our method enables better-aligned outputs without modifying the underlying model or even requiring logit access. We demonstrate the effectiveness of QAlign on mathematical reasoning benchmarks (GSM8K and GSM-Symbolic) using a task-specific RM, showing consistent improvements over existing test-time compute methods like best-of-n and majority voting. Furthermore, when applied with more realistic RMs trained on the Tulu 3 preference dataset, QAlign outperforms direct preference optimization (DPO), best-of-n, majority voting, and weighted majority voting on a diverse range of datasets (GSM8K, MATH500, IFEval, MMLU-Redux, and TruthfulQA). A practical solution to aligning language models at test time using additional computation without degradation, our approach expands the limits of the capability that can be obtained from off-the-shelf language models without further training.

Training on test-time data enables deep learning models to adapt to dynamic environmental changes, enhancing their practical applicability. Online adaptation from source to target domains is promising but it remains highly reliant on the performance of source pretrained model. In this paper, we investigate whether test-time adaptation (TTA) methods can continuously improve models trained via self-supervised learning (SSL) without relying on source pretraining. We introduce a self-supervised TTA protocol after observing that existing TTA approaches struggle when directly applied to self-supervised models with low accuracy on the source domain. Furthermore, we propose a collaborative learning framework that integrates SSL and TTA models, leveraging contrastive learning and knowledge distillation for stepwise representation refinement. We validate our method on diverse self-supervised models, including DINO, MoCo, and iBOT, across TTA benchmarks. Extensive experiments validate the effectiveness of our approach in SSL, showing that it achieves competitive performance even without source pretraining.

Confidence calibration -- the problem of predicting probability estimates representative of the true correctness likelihood -- is important for classification models in many applications. We discover that modern neural networks, unlike those from a decade ago, are poorly calibrated. Through extensive experiments, we observe that depth, width, weight decay, and Batch Normalization are important factors influencing calibration. We evaluate the performance of various post-processing calibration methods on state-of-the-art architectures with image and document classification datasets. Our analysis and experiments not only offer insights into neural network learning, but also provide a simple and straightforward recipe for practical settings: on most datasets, temperature scaling -- a single-parameter variant of Platt Scaling -- is surprisingly effective at calibrating predictions.

Overconfidence and underconfidence in machine learning classifiers is measured by calibration: the degree to which the probabilities predicted for each class match the accuracy of the classifier on that prediction. How one measures calibration remains a challenge: expected calibration error, the most popular metric, has numerous flaws which we outline, and there is no clear empirical understanding of how its choices affect conclusions in practice, and what recommendations there are to counteract its flaws. In this paper, we perform a comprehensive empirical study of choices in calibration measures including measuring all probabilities rather than just the maximum prediction, thresholding probability values, class conditionality, number of bins, bins that are adaptive to the datapoint density, and the norm used to compare accuracies to confidences. To analyze the sensitivity of calibration measures, we study the impact of optimizing directly for each variant with recalibration techniques. Across MNIST, Fashion MNIST, CIFAR-10/100, and ImageNet, we find that conclusions on the rank ordering of recalibration methods is drastically impacted by the choice of calibration measure. We find that conditioning on the class leads to more effective calibration evaluations, and that using the L2 norm rather than the L1 norm improves both optimization for calibration metrics and the rank correlation measuring metric consistency. Adaptive binning schemes lead to more stablity of metric rank ordering when the number of bins vary, and is also recommended. We open source a library for the use of our calibration measures.

Test-Time-Training (TTT) is an approach to cope with out-of-distribution (OOD) data by adapting a trained model to distribution shifts occurring at test-time. We propose to perform this adaptation via Activation Matching (ActMAD): We analyze activations of the model and align activation statistics of the OOD test data to those of the training data. In contrast to existing methods, which model the distribution of entire channels in the ultimate layer of the feature extractor, we model the distribution of each feature in multiple layers across the network. This results in a more fine-grained supervision and makes ActMAD attain state of the art performance on CIFAR-100C and Imagenet-C. ActMAD is also architecture- and task-agnostic, which lets us go beyond image classification, and score 15.4% improvement over previous approaches when evaluating a KITTI-trained object detector on KITTI-Fog. Our experiments highlight that ActMAD can be applied to online adaptation in realistic scenarios, requiring little data to attain its full performance.

Deep neural networks are increasingly utilized in various machine learning tasks. However, as these models grow in complexity, they often face calibration issues, despite enhanced prediction accuracy. Many studies have endeavored to improve calibration performance through the use of specific loss functions, data preprocessing and training frameworks. Yet, investigations into calibration properties have been somewhat overlooked. Our study leverages the Neural Architecture Search (NAS) search space, offering an exhaustive model architecture space for thorough calibration properties exploration. We specifically create a model calibration dataset. This dataset evaluates 90 bin-based and 12 additional calibration measurements across 117,702 unique neural networks within the widely employed NATS-Bench search space. Our analysis aims to answer several longstanding questions in the field, using our proposed dataset: (i) Can model calibration be generalized across different datasets? (ii) Can robustness be used as a calibration measurement? (iii) How reliable are calibration metrics? (iv) Does a post-hoc calibration method affect all models uniformly? (v) How does calibration interact with accuracy? (vi) What is the impact of bin size on calibration measurement? (vii) Which architectural designs are beneficial for calibration? Additionally, our study bridges an existing gap by exploring calibration within NAS. By providing this dataset, we enable further research into NAS calibration. As far as we are aware, our research represents the first large-scale investigation into calibration properties and the premier study of calibration issues within NAS. The project page can be found at https://www.taolinwei.com/calibration-study

Test-time adaptation (TTA) aims to adapt models to maintain reliable performance on non-stationary test streams without requiring labeled data. Despite its empirical success, the learnability of TTA under non-stationary streams remains unexplored. A key challenge is the lack of a principled theoretical framework that simultaneously aligns with the TTA objective and captures both continuously evolving distribution shifts and intrinsic information constraints. To address this gap, we propose the first theoretical framework for studying the learnability of TTA and introduce (ε,δ)-Recovery Complexity and (ε,ρ)-TTA Learnability. Recovery complexity measures the post-shift time needed to maintain excess risk below a target level with high probability, and is further extended to TTA learnability, which measures the long-term reliability of TTA. Within this framework, we introduce a novel discrete surrogate for non-stationary test streams, enabling a unified and tractable analysis of both gradual and abrupt shifts. We derive order-wise matching lower and upper bounds on recovery complexity, revealing fundamental limits of TTA and an intrinsic adaptivity-information trade-off. These results provide unified learnability guarantees for TTA that complement regret-based analyses.

Test-time adaptation (TTA) aims to address distribution shifts between source and target data by relying solely on target data during testing. In open-world scenarios, models often encounter noisy samples, i.e., samples outside the in-distribution (ID) label space. Leveraging the zero-shot capability of pre-trained vision-language models (VLMs), this paper introduces Zero-Shot Noisy TTA (ZS-NTTA), focusing on adapting the model to target data with noisy samples during test-time in a zero-shot manner. We find existing TTA methods underperform under ZS-NTTA, often lagging behind even the frozen model. We conduct comprehensive experiments to analyze this phenomenon, revealing that the negative impact of unfiltered noisy data outweighs the benefits of clean data during model updating. Also, adapting a classifier for ID classification and noise detection hampers both sub-tasks. Built on this, we propose a framework that decouples the classifier and detector, focusing on developing an individual detector while keeping the classifier frozen. Technically, we introduce the Adaptive Noise Detector (AdaND), which utilizes the frozen model's outputs as pseudo-labels to train a noise detector. To handle clean data streams, we further inject Gaussian noise during adaptation, preventing the detector from misclassifying clean samples as noisy. Beyond the ZS-NTTA, AdaND can also improve the zero-shot out-of-distribution (ZS-OOD) detection ability of VLMs. Experiments show that AdaND outperforms in both ZS-NTTA and ZS-OOD detection. On ImageNet, AdaND achieves a notable improvement of 8.32% in harmonic mean accuracy (Acc_H) for ZS-NTTA and 9.40% in FPR95 for ZS-OOD detection, compared to SOTA methods. Importantly, AdaND is computationally efficient and comparable to the model-frozen method. The code is publicly available at: https://github.com/tmlr-group/ZS-NTTA.

Generalizing deep learning models to unknown target domain distribution with low latency has motivated research into test-time training/adaptation (TTT/TTA). Existing approaches often focus on improving test-time training performance under well-curated target domain data. As figured out in this work, many state-of-the-art methods fail to maintain the performance when the target domain is contaminated with strong out-of-distribution (OOD) data, a.k.a. open-world test-time training (OWTTT). The failure is mainly due to the inability to distinguish strong OOD samples from regular weak OOD samples. To improve the robustness of OWTTT we first develop an adaptive strong OOD pruning which improves the efficacy of the self-training TTT method. We further propose a way to dynamically expand the prototypes to represent strong OOD samples for an improved weak/strong OOD data separation. Finally, we regularize self-training with distribution alignment and the combination yields the state-of-the-art performance on 5 OWTTT benchmarks. The code is available at https://github.com/Yushu-Li/OWTTT.

Test-time scaling often uses an external verifier, such as compilers and test cases in coding or trained value functions in robotics applications, to obtain high-quality rollouts. Verifier-free test-time scaling (or VF-TTS) is gaining extensive attention as a mechanism to enhance Large Language Model (LLM) reasoning, primarily because we do not have access to such high-quality verifiers in many real-world applications. Among existing VF-TTS methods, confidence-based VF-TTS methods, which compute and rank rollouts solely by confidence, are particularly promising. Such methods introduce near-zero overhead for sample evaluation and require minimal access to internal model states, making the methods highly flexible across models and tasks. In this paper, we demonstrate a critical limitation of existing confidence-based VF-TTS methods by showing that such methods catastrophically break down on complex tasks. We observe a very interesting phenomenon: uniformly high confidence frequently indicates a failure to explore, favoring confidently wrong answers. To address this, our core insight is that robust cognitive search requires a specific confidence trajectory pattern: such methods perform exploratory branching at the beginning, as manifested by low initial confidence, and converge to a high final confidence solution. To implement this insight, we introduce consilience, a novel selection framework that explicitly evaluates the temporal asymmetry of confidence in reasoning. We operationalize this via a combinatorial metric that actively penalizes high initial confidence while strictly demanding final certainty. Extensive experiments covering both graduate-level mathematics problems and free-form code generation demonstrate that consilience effectively outperforms existing baselines, validating our novel perspective on completion confidence.

Test-time reinforcement learning (TTRL) has emerged as a promising paradigm for self-evolving large reasoning models (LRMs), enabling online adaptation on unlabeled test inputs via self-induced rewards through majority voting. However, a spurious yet high-frequency unverified consensus can become a biased and reinforced reward signal, leading to incorrect mode collapse. We address this failure mode with T^3RL (Tool-Verification for Test-Time Reinforcement Learning), which introduces test-time tool verification into reward estimation. Concretely, a verifier uses an external tool as evidence (e.g., from code execution) to upweight verified rollouts in a verification-aware voting, producing more reliable pseudo-labels for training. Across various math difficulties (MATH-500, AMC, and AIME 2024) and diverse backbone types, T^3RL significantly improves over TTRL, with larger gains on harder problems. More broadly, T^3RL can be viewed as verified online data synthesis, highlighting test-time tool verification as a key mechanism for stabilizing self-evolution.

Test-time Reinforcement Learning (TTRL) has shown promise in adapting foundation models for complex tasks at test-time, resulting in large performance improvements. TTRL leverages an elegant two-phase sampling strategy: first, multi-sampling derives a pseudo-label via majority voting, while subsequent downsampling and reward-based fine-tuning encourages the model to explore and learn diverse valid solutions, with the pseudo-label modulating the reward signal. Meanwhile, in-context learning has been widely explored at inference time and demonstrated the ability to enhance model performance without weight updates. However, TTRL's two-phase sampling strategy under-utilizes contextual guidance, which can potentially improve pseudo-label accuracy in the initial exploitation phase while regulating exploration in the second. To address this, we propose context-guided TTRL (CG-TTRL), integrating context dynamically into both sampling phases and propose a method for efficient context selection for on-device applications. Our evaluations on mathematical and scientific QA benchmarks show CG-TTRL outperforms TTRL (e.g. additional 7% relative accuracy improvement over TTRL), while boosting efficiency by obtaining strong performance after only a few steps of test-time training (e.g. 8% relative improvement rather than 1% over TTRL after 3 steps).

Scaling model parameters has become the de facto strategy for improving NLP systems, but it comes with substantial computational costs. Test-Time Scaling (TTS) offers an alternative by allocating more computation at inference: generating multiple candidates and selecting the best. While effective in tasks such as mathematical reasoning, TTS has not been systematically explored for machine translation (MT). In this paper, we present the first systematic study of TTS for MT, investigating a simple but practical best-of-N framework on WMT24 benchmarks. Our experiments cover six high-resource and one low-resource language pairs, five model sizes (3B-72B), and various TTS compute budget (N up to 1024). Our results show that a) For high-resource languages, TTS generally improves translation quality according to multiple neural MT evaluation metrics, and our human evaluation confirms these gains; b) Augmenting smaller models with large N can match or surpass larger models at N{=}1 with more compute cost; c) Under fixed compute budgets, larger models are typically more efficient, and TTS can degrade quality due to metric blind spots in low-resource cases.

Test-time adaptation (TTA) fine-tunes pre-trained deep neural networks for unseen test data. The primary challenge of TTA is limited access to the entire test dataset during online updates, causing error accumulation. To mitigate it, TTA methods have utilized the model output's entropy as a confidence metric that aims to determine which samples have a lower likelihood of causing error. Through experimental studies, however, we observed the unreliability of entropy as a confidence metric for TTA under biased scenarios and theoretically revealed that it stems from the neglect of the influence of latent disentangled factors of data on predictions. Building upon these findings, we introduce a novel TTA method named Destroy Your Object (DeYO), which leverages a newly proposed confidence metric named Pseudo-Label Probability Difference (PLPD). PLPD quantifies the influence of the shape of an object on prediction by measuring the difference between predictions before and after applying an object-destructive transformation. DeYO consists of sample selection and sample weighting, which employ entropy and PLPD concurrently. For robust adaptation, DeYO prioritizes samples that dominantly incorporate shape information when making predictions. Our extensive experiments demonstrate the consistent superiority of DeYO over baseline methods across various scenarios, including biased and wild. Project page is publicly available at https://whitesnowdrop.github.io/DeYO/.

Reliable probability estimates are critical in many machine learning applications, yet modern classifiers are often poorly calibrated. Post-hoc calibration provides a simple and widely used solution, but the large number of proposed methods, combined with small-scale and inconsistent evaluations, makes it difficult to determine which approaches are truly effective in practice. We introduce a large-scale, standardized benchmark for post-hoc calibration, covering nearly 2000 experiments across tabular and computer vision tasks, including binary, multiclass, and large-scale classification settings. Our benchmark aggregates predictions from a diverse set of classical models, modern deep learning architectures, and foundation models, and provides unified, reproducible implementations of dozens of calibration methods within a common evaluation framework. We argue that Post-Hoc Improvement (PHI) in proper scoring rules offers a principled alternative to traditional calibration error estimators for comparing post-hoc methods, capturing both calibration quality and potential degradation to the model's predictive performance. Using this framework, we conduct the most comprehensive empirical study of post-hoc calibration to date. Our results reveal consistent patterns across domains: smooth calibration functions outperform binning-based approaches, dedicated multiclass methods are essential in high-dimensional settings, and generic machine learning models are not competitive without calibration-specific design. To facilitate future research, we release all data, code, and evaluation tools, providing a plug-and-play benchmark for developing and comparing calibration methods.

Test-time training (TTT) with KV binding as sequence modeling layer is commonly interpreted as a form of online meta-learning that memorizes a key-value mapping at test time. However, our analysis reveals multiple phenomena that contradict this memorization-based interpretation. Motivated by these findings, we revisit the formulation of TTT and show that a broad class of TTT architectures can be expressed as a form of learned linear attention operator. Beyond explaining previously puzzling model behaviors, this perspective yields multiple practical benefits: it enables principled architectural simplifications, admits fully parallel formulations that preserve performance while improving efficiency, and provides a systematic reduction of diverse TTT variants to a standard linear attention form. Overall, our results reframe TTT not as test-time memorization, but as learned linear attention with enhanced representational capacity.

While the design of blind image quality assessment (IQA) algorithms has improved significantly, the distribution shift between the training and testing scenarios often leads to a poor performance of these methods at inference time. This motivates the study of test time adaptation (TTA) techniques to improve their performance at inference time. Existing auxiliary tasks and loss functions used for TTA may not be relevant for quality-aware adaptation of the pre-trained model. In this work, we introduce two novel quality-relevant auxiliary tasks at the batch and sample levels to enable TTA for blind IQA. In particular, we introduce a group contrastive loss at the batch level and a relative rank loss at the sample level to make the model quality aware and adapt to the target data. Our experiments reveal that even using a small batch of images from the test distribution helps achieve significant improvement in performance by updating the batch normalization statistics of the source model.

The main challenge in domain generalization (DG) is to handle the distribution shift problem that lies between the training and test data. Recent studies suggest that test-time training (TTT), which adapts the learned model with test data, might be a promising solution to the problem. Generally, a TTT strategy hinges its performance on two main factors: selecting an appropriate auxiliary TTT task for updating and identifying reliable parameters to update during the test phase. Both previous arts and our experiments indicate that TTT may not improve but be detrimental to the learned model if those two factors are not properly considered. This work addresses those two factors by proposing an Improved Test-Time Adaptation (ITTA) method. First, instead of heuristically defining an auxiliary objective, we propose a learnable consistency loss for the TTT task, which contains learnable parameters that can be adjusted toward better alignment between our TTT task and the main prediction task. Second, we introduce additional adaptive parameters for the trained model, and we suggest only updating the adaptive parameters during the test phase. Through extensive experiments, we show that the proposed two strategies are beneficial for the learned model (see Figure 1), and ITTA could achieve superior performance to the current state-of-the-art methods on several DG benchmarks. Code is available at https://github.com/liangchen527/ITTA.

One common strategy for improving the performance of Large Language Models (LLMs) on downstream tasks involves using a verifier model to either select the best answer from a pool of candidates or to steer the auto-regressive generation process towards better outputs. This class of methods typically results in improved accuracy at the cost of increased computation at test-time, a paradigm known as test-time scaling. However, most existing approaches increase computation uniformly across all samples and generation steps, without considering the complexity of individual instances, leading to inefficient resource use. We address this limitation by proposing an approach, called Locally Adaptive Test-Time Scaling (LATTS), that allocates variable compute across generation steps. Specifically, at each generation step, LATTS employs a verifier-based acceptance criterion to decide whether to resample, backtrack, restart, or stop the generation process. This criterion effectively adjusts the per-step computational effort based on a precise notion of local difficulty derived from the verifier model. Empirical results show that LATTS achieves significantly superior accuracy--compute tradeoffs compared to standard verifier-based methods.

Reasoning reinforcement learning (RL) has recently revealed a new scaling effect: test-time scaling. Thinking models such as R1 and o1 improve their reasoning accuracy at test time as the length of the reasoning context increases. However, compared with training-time scaling, test-time scaling is fundamentally limited by the limited context length of base models, which remains orders of magnitude smaller than the amount of tokens consumed during training. We revisit test-time enhancement techniques through the lens of scaling effect and introduce a unified framework of multi-dimensional test-time scaling to extend the capacity of test-time reasoning. Beyond conventional context-length scaling, we consider two additional dimensions: batch scaling, where accuracy improves with parallel sampling, and turn scaling, where iterative self-refinement enhances reasoning quality. Building on this perspective, we propose 3D test-time scaling, which integrates context, batch, and turn scaling. We show that: (1) each dimension demonstrates a test-time scaling effect, but with a bounded capacity; (2) combining all three dimensions substantially improves the reasoning performance of challenging testbeds, including IOI, IMO, and CPHO, and further benefits from human preference feedback; and (3) the human-in-the-loop framework naturally extends to a more open-ended domain, i.e., embodied learning, which enables the design of humanoid control behaviors.

Calibration measures and reliability diagrams are two fundamental tools for measuring and interpreting the calibration of probabilistic predictors. Calibration measures quantify the degree of miscalibration, and reliability diagrams visualize the structure of this miscalibration. However, the most common constructions of reliability diagrams and calibration measures -- binning and ECE -- both suffer from well-known flaws (e.g. discontinuity). We show that a simple modification fixes both constructions: first smooth the observations using an RBF kernel, then compute the Expected Calibration Error (ECE) of this smoothed function. We prove that with a careful choice of bandwidth, this method yields a calibration measure that is well-behaved in the sense of (B{\l}asiok, Gopalan, Hu, and Nakkiran 2023a) -- a consistent calibration measure. We call this measure the SmoothECE. Moreover, the reliability diagram obtained from this smoothed function visually encodes the SmoothECE, just as binned reliability diagrams encode the BinnedECE. We also provide a Python package with simple, hyperparameter-free methods for measuring and plotting calibration: `pip install relplot\`.

Distilled autoregressive diffusion models facilitate real-time short video synthesis but suffer from severe error accumulation during long-sequence generation. While existing Test-Time Optimization (TTO) methods prove effective for images or short clips, we identify that they fail to mitigate drift in extended sequences due to unstable reward landscapes and the hypersensitivity of distilled parameters. To overcome these limitations, we introduce Test-Time Correction (TTC), a training-free alternative. Specifically, TTC utilizes the initial frame as a stable reference anchor to calibrate intermediate stochastic states along the sampling trajectory. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method seamlessly integrates with various distilled models, extending generation lengths with negligible overhead while matching the quality of resource-intensive training-based methods on 30-second benchmarks.

Test-Time Scaling (TTS) has proven effective in improving the performance of Large Language Models (LLMs) during inference. However, existing research has overlooked the efficiency of TTS from a latency-sensitive perspective. Through a latency-aware evaluation of representative TTS methods, we demonstrate that a compute-optimal TTS does not always result in the lowest latency in scenarios where latency is critical. To address this gap and achieve latency-optimal TTS, we propose two key approaches by optimizing the concurrency configurations: (1) branch-wise parallelism, which leverages multiple concurrent inference branches, and (2) sequence-wise parallelism, enabled by speculative decoding. By integrating these two approaches and allocating computational resources properly to each, our latency-optimal TTS enables a 32B model to reach 82.3% accuracy on MATH-500 within 1 minute and a smaller 3B model to achieve 72.4% within 10 seconds. Our work emphasizes the importance of latency-aware TTS and demonstrates its ability to deliver both speed and accuracy in latency-sensitive scenarios.

We introduce a framework for calibrating machine learning models so that their predictions satisfy explicit, finite-sample statistical guarantees. Our calibration algorithms work with any underlying model and (unknown) data-generating distribution and do not require model refitting. The framework addresses, among other examples, false discovery rate control in multi-label classification, intersection-over-union control in instance segmentation, and the simultaneous control of the type-1 error of outlier detection and confidence set coverage in classification or regression. Our main insight is to reframe the risk-control problem as multiple hypothesis testing, enabling techniques and mathematical arguments different from those in the previous literature. We use the framework to provide new calibration methods for several core machine learning tasks, with detailed worked examples in computer vision and tabular medical data.

With the scale capability of increasing training data, model size, and computational cost, video generation has achieved impressive results in digital creation, enabling users to express creativity across various domains. Recently, researchers in Large Language Models (LLMs) have expanded the scaling to test-time, which can significantly improve LLM performance by using more inference-time computation. Instead of scaling up video foundation models through expensive training costs, we explore the power of Test-Time Scaling (TTS) in video generation, aiming to answer the question: if a video generation model is allowed to use non-trivial amount of inference-time compute, how much can it improve generation quality given a challenging text prompt. In this work, we reinterpret the test-time scaling of video generation as a searching problem to sample better trajectories from Gaussian noise space to the target video distribution. Specifically, we build the search space with test-time verifiers to provide feedback and heuristic algorithms to guide searching process. Given a text prompt, we first explore an intuitive linear search strategy by increasing noise candidates at inference time. As full-step denoising all frames simultaneously requires heavy test-time computation costs, we further design a more efficient TTS method for video generation called Tree-of-Frames (ToF) that adaptively expands and prunes video branches in an autoregressive manner. Extensive experiments on text-conditioned video generation benchmarks demonstrate that increasing test-time compute consistently leads to significant improvements in the quality of videos. Project page: https://liuff19.github.io/Video-T1

As large language models (LLMs) increasingly tackle complex reasoning tasks, test-time scaling has become critical for enhancing capabilities. However, in agentic scenarios with frequent tool calls, the traditional generation-length-based definition breaks down: tool latency decouples inference time from generation length. We propose Timely Machine, redefining test-time as wall-clock time, where models dynamically adjust strategies based on time budgets. We introduce Timely-Eval, a benchmark spanning high-frequency tool calls, low-frequency tool calls, and time-constrained reasoning. By varying tool latency, we find smaller models excel with fast feedback through more interactions, while larger models dominate high-latency settings via superior interaction quality. Moreover, existing models fail to adapt reasoning to time budgets. We propose Timely-RL to address this gap. After cold-start supervised fine-tuning, we use reinforcement learning to enhance temporal planning. Timely-RL improves time budget awareness and consistently boosts performance across Timely-Eval. We hope our work offers a new perspective on test-time scaling for the agentic era.

Test-time adaptation (TTA) aims to address the distribution shift between the training and test data with only unlabeled data at test time. Existing TTA methods often focus on improving recognition performance specifically for test data associated with classes in the training set. However, during the open-world inference process, there are inevitably test data instances from unknown classes, commonly referred to as outliers. This paper pays attention to the problem that conducts both sample recognition and outlier rejection during inference while outliers exist. To address this problem, we propose a new approach called STAble Memory rePlay (STAMP), which performs optimization over a stable memory bank instead of the risky mini-batch. In particular, the memory bank is dynamically updated by selecting low-entropy and label-consistent samples in a class-balanced manner. In addition, we develop a self-weighted entropy minimization strategy that assigns higher weight to low-entropy samples. Extensive results demonstrate that STAMP outperforms existing TTA methods in terms of both recognition and outlier detection performance. The code is released at https://github.com/yuyongcan/STAMP.

Test-Time Scaling (TTS) refers to approaches that improve reasoning performance by allocating extra computation during inference, without altering the model's parameters. While existing TTS methods operate in a discrete token space by generating more intermediate steps, recent studies in Coconut and SoftCoT have demonstrated that thinking in the continuous latent space can further enhance the reasoning performance. Such latent thoughts encode informative thinking without the information loss associated with autoregressive token generation, sparking increased interest in continuous-space reasoning. Unlike discrete decoding, where repeated sampling enables exploring diverse reasoning paths, latent representations in continuous space are fixed for a given input, which limits diverse exploration, as all decoded paths originate from the same latent thought. To overcome this limitation, we introduce SoftCoT++ to extend SoftCoT to the Test-Time Scaling paradigm by enabling diverse exploration of thinking paths. Specifically, we perturb latent thoughts via multiple specialized initial tokens and apply contrastive learning to promote diversity among soft thought representations. Experiments across five reasoning benchmarks and two distinct LLM architectures demonstrate that SoftCoT++ significantly boosts SoftCoT and also outperforms SoftCoT with self-consistency scaling. Moreover, it shows strong compatibility with conventional scaling techniques such as self-consistency. Source code is available at https://github.com/xuyige/SoftCoT.

Reliable usage of object detectors require them to be calibrated -- a crucial problem that requires careful attention. Recent approaches towards this involve (1) designing new loss functions to obtain calibrated detectors by training them from scratch, and (2) post-hoc Temperature Scaling (TS) that learns to scale the likelihood of a trained detector to output calibrated predictions. These approaches are then evaluated based on a combination of Detection Expected Calibration Error (D-ECE) and Average Precision. In this work, via extensive analysis and insights, we highlight that these recent evaluation frameworks, evaluation metrics, and the use of TS have notable drawbacks leading to incorrect conclusions. As a step towards fixing these issues, we propose a principled evaluation framework to jointly measure calibration and accuracy of object detectors. We also tailor efficient and easy-to-use post-hoc calibration approaches such as Platt Scaling and Isotonic Regression specifically for object detection task. Contrary to the common notion, our experiments show that once designed and evaluated properly, post-hoc calibrators, which are extremely cheap to build and use, are much more powerful and effective than the recent train-time calibration methods. To illustrate, D-DETR with our post-hoc Isotonic Regression calibrator outperforms the recent train-time state-of-the-art calibration method Cal-DETR by more than 7 D-ECE on the COCO dataset. Additionally, we propose improved versions of the recently proposed Localization-aware ECE and show the efficacy of our method on these metrics as well. Code is available at: https://github.com/fiveai/detection_calibration.

Training state-of-the-art vision models has become prohibitively expensive for researchers and practitioners. For the sake of accessibility and resource reuse, it is important to focus on adapting these models to a variety of downstream scenarios. An interesting and practical paradigm is online test-time adaptation, according to which training data is inaccessible, no labelled data from the test distribution is available, and adaptation can only happen at test time and on a handful of samples. In this paper, we investigate how test-time adaptation methods fare for a number of pre-trained models on a variety of real-world scenarios, significantly extending the way they have been originally evaluated. We show that they perform well only in narrowly-defined experimental setups and sometimes fail catastrophically when their hyperparameters are not selected for the same scenario in which they are being tested. Motivated by the inherent uncertainty around the conditions that will ultimately be encountered at test time, we propose a particularly "conservative" approach, which addresses the problem with a Laplacian Adjusted Maximum-likelihood Estimation (LAME) objective. By adapting the model's output (not its parameters), and solving our objective with an efficient concave-convex procedure, our approach exhibits a much higher average accuracy across scenarios than existing methods, while being notably faster and have a much lower memory footprint. The code is available at https://github.com/fiveai/LAME.

As LLM benchmarks saturate, the evaluation community has pursued two strategies to increase difficulty: escalating knowledge demands (GPQA, HLE) or removing knowledge entirely in favor of abstract reasoning (ARC-AGI). The first conflates memorization with capability; the second divorces reasoning from the practical contexts in which it matters. We take a different approach. The Grounded Integration Measure (GIM) is a benchmark of 820 original problems (615 public, 205 private) where difficulty comes from integration; individual problems require coordinating multiple cognitive operations (constraint satisfaction, state tracking, epistemic vigilance, audience calibration) over broadly accessible knowledge, so that reasoning stays grounded in realistic tasks without being gated on specialized expertise. Each problem is an original expert-authored composition, majority with rubric-decomposed scoring (median 6 independently judged criteria). A balanced public--private split provides built-in contamination diagnostic. We calibrate a continuous response 2-parameter logistic (2PL) IRT model over >200k prompt-response pairs across 28 models, producing robust ability estimates that correctly order test-configurations even when raw accuracy is distorted by errors or missing data, addressing a common challenge in benchmark reporting. Using this framework, we present a comprehensive leaderboard spanning 22 models and 47 test-configurations (unique model, thinking-level pairs), and conduct what is to our knowledge the most extensive published study of how test-time compute trades off against model capability on a fixed benchmark: 11 models swept across 35 test-configurations. We observe that within-family configuration choices, such as thinking budget and quantization, matter as much as model selection. We release the evaluation framework, calibrated IRT parameters, and all public problems.

Test-Time Learning (TTL) enables language agents to iteratively refine their performance through repeated interactions with the environment at inference time. At the core of TTL is an adaptation policy that updates the actor policy based on experience from previous episodes, thereby improving future behavior. Existing methods rely on fixed, hand-crafted adaptation policies rather than optimizing them for downstream improvement. We argue that optimal adaptation policies should be learned from task environments, not hand-engineered based on human intuition. To achieve this, we introduce Meta-TTL, a framework that formulates the discovery of effective adaptation policies as a bi-level optimization problem. Within this framework, the inner loop executes the standard TTL process, measuring how effectively a candidate adaptation policy helps an agent correct errors across sequential episodes. Guided by the agent's performance, the outer loop employs evolutionary search over a diverse distribution of training tasks to iteratively refine the adaptation policy. We evaluate Meta-TTL on Jericho and WebArena-Lite across both in-distribution (ID) and out-of-distribution (OOD) settings, using multiple meta-agent backbones. Results on both benchmarks show that Meta-TTL consistently outperforms hand-crafted baselines, suggesting that the optimized adaptation policy encodes transferable strategies that generalize beyond the training task distribution.

Autonomous agents based on large language models (LLMs) are rapidly evolving to handle multi-turn tasks, but ensuring their trustworthiness remains a critical challenge. A fundamental pillar of this trustworthiness is calibration, which refers to an agent's ability to express confidence that reliably reflects its actual performance. While calibration is well-established for static models, its dynamics in tool-integrated agentic workflows remain underexplored. In this work, we systematically investigate verbalized calibration in tool-use agents, revealing a fundamental confidence dichotomy driven by tool type. Specifically, our pilot study identifies that evidence tools (e.g., web search) systematically induce severe overconfidence due to inherent noise in retrieved information, while verification tools (e.g., code interpreters) can ground reasoning through deterministic feedback and mitigate miscalibration. To robustly improve calibration across tool types, we propose a reinforcement learning (RL) fine-tuning framework that jointly optimizes task accuracy and calibration, supported by a holistic benchmark of reward designs. We demonstrate that our trained agents not only achieve superior calibration but also exhibit robust generalization from local training environments to noisy web settings and to distinct domains such as mathematical reasoning. Our results highlight the necessity of domain-specific calibration strategies for tool-use agents. More broadly, this work establishes a foundation for building self-aware agents that can reliably communicate uncertainty in high-stakes, real-world deployments.

Test-time adaptation harnesses test inputs to improve the accuracy of a model trained on source data when tested on shifted target data. Existing methods update the source model by (re-)training on each target domain. While effective, re-training is sensitive to the amount and order of the data and the hyperparameters for optimization. We instead update the target data, by projecting all test inputs toward the source domain with a generative diffusion model. Our diffusion-driven adaptation method, DDA, shares its models for classification and generation across all domains. Both models are trained on the source domain, then fixed during testing. We augment diffusion with image guidance and self-ensembling to automatically decide how much to adapt. Input adaptation by DDA is more robust than prior model adaptation approaches across a variety of corruptions, architectures, and data regimes on the ImageNet-C benchmark. With its input-wise updates, DDA succeeds where model adaptation degrades on too little data in small batches, dependent data in non-uniform order, or mixed data with multiple corruptions.

Test-time adaptation (TTA) addresses distribution shifts for streaming test data in unsupervised settings. Currently, most TTA methods can only deal with minor shifts and rely heavily on heuristic and empirical studies. To advance TTA under domain shifts, we propose the novel problem setting of active test-time adaptation (ATTA) that integrates active learning within the fully TTA setting. We provide a learning theory analysis, demonstrating that incorporating limited labeled test instances enhances overall performances across test domains with a theoretical guarantee. We also present a sample entropy balancing for implementing ATTA while avoiding catastrophic forgetting (CF). We introduce a simple yet effective ATTA algorithm, known as SimATTA, using real-time sample selection techniques. Extensive experimental results confirm consistency with our theoretical analyses and show that the proposed ATTA method yields substantial performance improvements over TTA methods while maintaining efficiency and shares similar effectiveness to the more demanding active domain adaptation (ADA) methods. Our code is available at https://github.com/divelab/ATTA

Quantized checkpoints are often screened first with quality metrics and only later, if at all, with direct safety tests. This paper audits that shortcut on a matched 51-row matrix spanning 6 models, 4 families, a 7-level GGUF ladder, and AWQ/GPTQ INT4 checkpoints. In this matrix the shortcut fails: all 36 quality-safety pairings split direction across models, and 9 hidden-danger rows plus 1 near-hidden-danger row show quality stable or improved while refusal falls by 12-68 percentage points. Seven of the 11 AWQ/GPTQ rows are hidden-danger. A four-probe mechanistic follow-up over the 17 Hugging Face-backed FP16/AWQ/GPTQ cells does not rescue it: entropy, refusal-direction, and calibration probes are weak or null separators of dangerous rows, and although probe-identified safety-associated neurons absorb 1.39times more quantization error overall (p < 5 times 10^{-7}), the effect is not regime-specific. Claude Sonnet 4 relabels 11,470 items in a predefined stratified set, agrees with the primary gemma3:12b judge on 89.9\% of rows (κ= 0.873, 95\% CI [0.866, 0.881]), and changes 0/10 hidden-danger cells. A calibrated study-internal behavioral screen -- the Refusal Template Stability Index (RTSI), built from four refusal-template drift features and calibrated on this matrix -- routes 10/10 hidden- or near-hidden-danger rows to direct safety testing (Wilson 95\% CI lower bound 0.72) while leaving 23 of 45 non-baseline rows in a low-risk bucket under both in-sample scoring and row-level leave-one-out validation; on the same matrix, the best single-feature baselines (unique-prefix-rate-delta, raw refusal-rate delta) recover 9/10 and 8/10 respectively at matched bucket size, and cross-stack transfer requires recalibration. For the quantized checkpoints, model families, and safety outcomes studied here, retained quality cannot waive direct safety evaluation.

Conformal prediction (CP) provides distribution-free prediction intervals for fixed forecasters, but its standard calibration procedure is often inefficient for time series data, where forecast errors are temporally dependent and change across time and operating conditions. Recent time series CP methods improve local calibration using recent, weighted, or localized residuals. Yet local calibration can remain indirect, since broad residual weighting or additional adaptation procedures may dilute the evidence most relevant to the current prediction. This motivates a simple retrieval and correction strategy that selects similar past residuals as local evidence and then corrects the coverage error left by retrieval. In this paper, we propose Retrieval--Corrected Conformal Prediction (RCCP), a retrieval-augmented calibration method for time series prediction intervals. RCCP builds an asymmetric interval from retrieved one-sided residuals and calibrates its normalized retrieval error with a scalar conformal correction. Thus, retrieval provides local residual evidence, while conformal correction determines the final scale needed for coverage. We provide a coverage-gap bound based on the stability of the normalized retrieval error distribution. Across standard benchmarks and backbone forecasters, RCCP attains the target coverage in every setting and achieves the lowest Winkler scores, with fewer severe misses. RCCP also achieves low calibration and inference overhead, showing that retrieval-corrected calibration is an effective and scalable approach to uncertainty quantification in time series forecasting. Code is available at https://github.com/jinsaaang/rccp.

Recent advances in machine learning have significantly improved prediction accuracy in various applications. However, ensuring the calibration of probabilistic predictions remains a significant challenge. Despite efforts to enhance model calibration, the rigorous statistical evaluation of model calibration remains less explored. In this work, we develop confidence intervals the ell_2 Expected Calibration Error (ECE). We consider top-1-to-k calibration, which includes both the popular notion of confidence calibration as well as full calibration. For a debiased estimator of the ECE, we show asymptotic normality, but with different convergence rates and asymptotic variances for calibrated and miscalibrated models. We develop methods to construct asymptotically valid confidence intervals for the ECE, accounting for this behavior as well as non-negativity. Our theoretical findings are supported through extensive experiments, showing that our methods produce valid confidence intervals with shorter lengths compared to those obtained by resampling-based methods.

Small Vision-Language Models (VLMs) provide a computationally efficient alternative to larger models, at the cost of weaker generalization abilities and downstream task performance. These shortcomings could be addressed by test-time scaling techniques, but existing methods are typically computationally demanding, contradicting the resource-efficient design goals of small models. To address these limitations, we propose two novel and efficient test-time scaling strategies that leverage the model-internal features rather than external supervision: (i) Test-Time Augmentation (TTAug), which generates multiple augmented inputs and aggregates outputs at the token level without parameter updates, and (ii) Test-Time Adaptation (TTAdapt), which adapts model parameters during inference using consensus-based pseudolabels from TTAug. Through extensive experiments across nine benchmarks, we demonstrate consistent performance improvements while maintaining computational efficiency suitable for resource-constrained environments. The generality of our approach is demonstrated both within models at different scales and across different VLMs without additional tuning.

Test-time adaptation (TTA) addresses the unforeseen distribution shifts occurring during test time. In TTA, performance, memory consumption, and time consumption are crucial considerations. A recent diffusion-based TTA approach for restoring corrupted images involves image-level updates. However, using pixel space diffusion significantly increases resource requirements compared to conventional model updating TTA approaches, revealing limitations as a TTA method. To address this, we propose a novel TTA method that leverages an image editing model based on a latent diffusion model (LDM) and fine-tunes it using our newly introduced corruption modeling scheme. This scheme enhances the robustness of the diffusion model against distribution shifts by creating (clean, corrupted) image pairs and fine-tuning the model to edit corrupted images into clean ones. Moreover, we introduce a distilled variant to accelerate the model for corruption editing using only 4 network function evaluations (NFEs). We extensively validated our method across various architectures and datasets including image and video domains. Our model achieves the best performance with a 100 times faster runtime than that of a diffusion-based baseline. Furthermore, it is three times faster than the previous model updating TTA method that utilizes data augmentation, making an image-level updating approach more feasible.

Electroencephalography (EEG) foundation models have shown strong potential for learning generalizable representations from large-scale neural data, yet their clinical deployment is hindered by distribution shifts across clinical settings, devices, and populations. Test-time adaptation (TTA) offers a promising solution by enabling models to adapt to unlabeled target data during inference without access to source data, a valuable property in healthcare settings constrained by privacy regulations and limited labeled data. However, its effectiveness for EEG remains largely underexplored. In this work, we introduce NeuroAdapt-Bench, a systematic benchmark for evaluating test-time adaptation methods on EEG foundation models under realistic distribution shifts. We evaluate representative TTA approaches from other domains across multiple pretrained foundation models, diverse downstream tasks, and heterogeneous datasets spanning in-distribution, out-of-distribution, and extreme modality shifts (e.g., Ear-EEG). Our results show that standard TTA methods yield inconsistent gains and often degrade performance, with gradient-based approaches particularly prone to heavy degradation. In contrast, optimization-free methods demonstrate greater stability and more reliable improvements. These findings highlight the limitations of existing TTA techniques in EEG, provide guidance for future development, and underscore the need for domain-specific adaptation strategies.

Class probabilities predicted by most multiclass classifiers are uncalibrated, often tending towards over-confidence. With neural networks, calibration can be improved by temperature scaling, a method to learn a single corrective multiplicative factor for inputs to the last softmax layer. On non-neural models the existing methods apply binary calibration in a pairwise or one-vs-rest fashion. We propose a natively multiclass calibration method applicable to classifiers from any model class, derived from Dirichlet distributions and generalising the beta calibration method from binary classification. It is easily implemented with neural nets since it is equivalent to log-transforming the uncalibrated probabilities, followed by one linear layer and softmax. Experiments demonstrate improved probabilistic predictions according to multiple measures (confidence-ECE, classwise-ECE, log-loss, Brier score) across a wide range of datasets and classifiers. Parameters of the learned Dirichlet calibration map provide insights to the biases in the uncalibrated model.

Machine learning models are widely used, but can also often be wrong. Users would benefit from a reliable indication of whether a given output from a given model should be trusted, so a rational decision can be made whether to use the output or not. For example, outputs can be associated with a confidence measure; if this confidence measure is strongly associated with likelihood of correctness, then the model is said to be well-calibrated. A well-calibrated confidence measure can serve as a basis for rational, graduated decision-making on how much review and care is needed when using generated code. Calibration has so far been studied in mostly non-generative (e.g. classification) settings, especially in software engineering. However, generated code can quite often be wrong: Given generated code, developers must decide whether to use directly, use after varying intensity of careful review, or discard model-generated code. Thus, calibration is vital in generative settings. We make several contributions. We develop a framework for evaluating the calibration of code-generating models. We consider several tasks, correctness criteria, datasets, and approaches, and find that, by and large, generative code models we test are not well-calibrated out of the box. We then show how calibration can be improved using standard methods, such as Platt scaling. Since Platt scaling relies on the prior availability of correctness data, we evaluate the applicability and generalizability of Platt scaling in software engineering, discuss settings where it has good potential for practical use, and settings where it does not. Our contributions will lead to better-calibrated decision-making in the current use of code generated by language models, and offers a framework for future research to further improve calibration methods for generative models in software engineering.

Test-Time Scaling (TTS) improves LLM reasoning by exploring multiple candidate responses and then operating over this set to find the best output. A tacit premise behind TTS is that sufficiently diverse candidate pools enhance reliability. In this work, we show that this assumption in TTS introduces a previously unrecognized failure mode. When candidate diversity is curtailed, even by a modest amount, TTS becomes much more likely to produce unsafe outputs. We present a reference-guided diversity reduction protocol (RefDiv) that serves as a diagnostic attack to stress test TTS pipelines. Through extensive experiments across open-source models (e.g. Qwen3, Mistral, Llama3.1, Gemma3) and two widely used TTS strategies (Monte Carlo Tree Search and Best-of-N), constraining diversity consistently signifies the rate at which TTS produces unsafe results. The effect is often stronger than that produced by prompts directly with high adversarial intent scores. This observed phenomenon also transfers across TTS strategies and to closed-source models (e.g. OpenAI o3-mini and Gemini-2.5-Pro), thus indicating that this is a general and extant property of TTS rather than a model-specific artifact. Additionally, we find that numerous widely used safety guardrail classifiers (e.g. Llama-Guard), are unable to flag the adversarial input prompts generated by RefDiv, demonstrating that existing defenses offer limited protection against this diversity-driven failure mode.

Deep neural networks have demonstrated remarkable performance across numerous learning tasks but often suffer from miscalibration, resulting in unreliable probability outputs. This has inspired many recent works on mitigating miscalibration, particularly through post-hoc recalibration methods that aim to obtain calibrated probabilities without sacrificing the classification performance of pre-trained models. In this study, we summarize and categorize previous works into three general strategies: intuitively designed methods, binning-based methods, and methods based on formulations of ideal calibration. Through theoretical and practical analysis, we highlight ten common limitations in previous approaches. To address these limitations, we propose a probabilistic learning framework for calibration called h-calibration, which theoretically constructs an equivalent learning formulation for canonical calibration with boundedness. On this basis, we design a simple yet effective post-hoc calibration algorithm. Our method not only overcomes the ten identified limitations but also achieves markedly better performance than traditional methods, as validated by extensive experiments. We further analyze, both theoretically and experimentally, the relationship and advantages of our learning objective compared to traditional proper scoring rule. In summary, our probabilistic framework derives an approximately equivalent differentiable objective for learning error-bounded calibrated probabilities, elucidating the correspondence and convergence properties of computational statistics with respect to theoretical bounds in canonical calibration. The theoretical effectiveness is verified on standard post-hoc calibration benchmarks by achieving state-of-the-art performance. This research offers valuable reference for learning reliable likelihood in related fields.

Scaling test-time compute has emerged as a powerful mechanism for enhancing Large Language Model (LLM) performance. However, standard post-training paradigms, Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT) and Reinforcement Learning (RL), optimize the likelihood of individual samples under a base policy, creating a misalignment with test time procedures that rely on aggregated or filtered outputs. In this work, we propose Compute Aligned Training, which aligns training objectives with test-time strategies. By conceptualizing inference strategies as operators on the base policy, we derive new loss functions that maximize performance when said strategies are applied. We instantiate such loss functions for SFT and RL across common test time strategies. Finally, we provide empirical evidence that this training method substantially improves test time scaling over standard training.

Test-time training (TTT) adapts language models through gradient-based updates at inference. But is adaptation the right strategy? We study compute-optimal test-time strategies for verifiable execution-grounded (VEG) tasks, domains like GPU kernel optimization where a deterministic evaluator provides dense, continuous reward signals. Using KernelBench as our testbed and a 120B-parameter model (GPT-OSS-120B with LoRA adaptation), we find that search outperforms minimal adaptation (1-5 gradient steps): Best-of-N sampling achieves 90% task success (18/20 tasks) at K=64 across the full KernelBench L1 eval set while TTT's best checkpoint reaches only 30.6% (3-seed mean), with TTT's "equivalent K" falling below 1, worse than single-sample inference. The failure mode is over-sharpening: gradient updates collapse diversity toward mediocre solutions rather than discovering optimal ones. Our main contribution is surprisal-guided selection: selecting the highest-surprisal (lowest-confidence) correct sample yields 80% success vs. 50% for most-confident selection, a 30% improvement. Extending to surprisal-guided-top3 matches oracle performance at 100%. This zero-cost strategy, validated through length-controlled analysis, recovers oracle performance. For dense-reward VEG tasks, compute should be allocated to sample diversity and intelligent selection rather than gradient adaptation. The surprisal-guided selection principle may generalize to other execution-grounded domains where optimal solutions occupy the distribution tail.

Humans are good at learning on the job: We learn how to solve the tasks we face as we go along. Can a model do the same? We propose an agent that assembles a task-specific curriculum, called test-time curriculum (TTC-RL), and applies reinforcement learning to continue training the model for its target task. The test-time curriculum avoids time-consuming human curation of datasets by automatically selecting the most task-relevant data from a large pool of available training data. Our experiments demonstrate that reinforcement learning on a test-time curriculum consistently improves the model on its target tasks, across a variety of evaluations and models. Notably, on challenging math and coding benchmarks, TTC-RL improves the pass@1 of Qwen3-8B by approximately 1.8x on AIME25 and 2.1x on CodeElo. Moreover, we find that TTC-RL significantly raises the performance ceiling compared to the initial model, increasing pass@8 on AIME25 from 40% to 62% and on CodeElo from 28% to 43%. Our findings show the potential of test-time curricula in extending the test-time scaling paradigm to continual training on thousands of task-relevant experiences during test-time.

Recent progress in large language models (LLMs) highlights the power of scaling test-time compute to achieve strong performance on complex tasks, such as mathematical reasoning and code generation. This raises a critical question: how should model training be modified to optimize performance under a subsequent test-time compute strategy and budget? To explore this, we focus on pass@N, a simple test-time strategy that searches for a correct answer in N independent samples. We show, surprisingly, that training with cross-entropy (CE) loss can be {it misaligned} with pass@N in that pass@N accuracy {it decreases} with longer training. We explain the origins of this misalignment in terms of model overconfidence induced by CE, and experimentally verify our prediction of overconfidence as an impediment to scaling test-time compute via pass@N. Furthermore we suggest a principled, modified training loss that is better aligned to pass@N by limiting model confidence and rescuing pass@N test performance. Our algorithm demonstrates improved mathematical reasoning on MATH and MiniF2F benchmarks under several scenarios: (1) providing answers to math questions; and (2) proving theorems by searching over proof trees of varying shapes. Overall our work underscores the importance of co-designing two traditionally separate phases of LLM development: training-time protocols and test-time search and reasoning strategies.

Despite the impressive generalization capabilities of deep neural networks, they have been repeatedly shown to be overconfident when they are wrong. Fixing this issue is known as model calibration, and has consequently received much attention in the form of modified training schemes and post-training calibration procedures such as temperature scaling. While temperature scaling is frequently used because of its simplicity, it is often outperformed by modified training schemes. In this work, we identify a specific bottleneck for the performance of temperature scaling. We show that for empirical risk minimizers for a general set of distributions in which the supports of classes have overlaps, the performance of temperature scaling degrades with the amount of overlap between classes, and asymptotically becomes no better than random when there are a large number of classes. On the other hand, we prove that optimizing a modified form of the empirical risk induced by the Mixup data augmentation technique can in fact lead to reasonably good calibration performance, showing that training-time calibration may be necessary in some situations. We also verify that our theoretical results reflect practice by showing that Mixup significantly outperforms empirical risk minimization (with respect to multiple calibration metrics) on image classification benchmarks with class overlaps introduced in the form of label noise.

Test-time scaling seeks to improve the reasoning performance of large language models (LLMs) by adding computational resources. A prevalent approach within the field is sampling-based test-time scaling methods, which enhance reasoning by generating multiple reasoning paths for a given input during inference. However, despite its practical success, the theoretical foundations remain underexplored. In this paper, we provide the first theoretical framework for analyzing sampling-based test-time scaling methods, grounded in the perspective of confidence estimation. Based on the framework, we analyze two dominant paradigms: self-consistency and perplexity, and reveal key limitations: self-consistency suffers from high estimation error while perplexity exhibits substantial modeling error and possible degradation of the estimation error convergence. To address these limitations, we introduce RPC, a hybrid method that leverages our theoretical insights through two key components: Perplexity Consistency and Reasoning Pruning. Perplexity Consistency combines the strengths of self-consistency and perplexity, boosting the convergence rate of estimation error from linear to exponential while preserving model error. Reasoning Pruning prevents degradation by eliminating low-probability reasoning paths. Both theoretical analysis and empirical results across seven benchmark datasets demonstrate that RPC has a strong potential for reducing reasoning error. Notably, RPC achieves reasoning performance comparable to self-consistency while not only enhancing confidence reliability but also reducing sampling costs by 50%. The code and resources are available at https://wnjxyk.github.io/RPC.

Test-time computing approaches, which leverage additional computational resources during inference, have been proven effective in enhancing large language model performance. This work introduces a novel, linearly scaling approach, TestNUC, that improves test-time predictions by leveraging the local consistency of neighboring unlabeled data-it classifies an input instance by considering not only the model's prediction on that instance but also on neighboring unlabeled instances. We evaluate TestNUC across eight diverse datasets, spanning intent classification, topic mining, domain discovery, and emotion detection, demonstrating its consistent superiority over baseline methods such as standard prompting and self-consistency. Furthermore, TestNUC can be seamlessly integrated with existing test-time computing approaches, substantially boosting their performance. Our analysis reveals that TestNUC scales effectively with increasing amounts of unlabeled data and performs robustly across different embedding models, making it practical for real-world applications. Our code is available at https://github.com/HenryPengZou/TestNUC.

With the advancement of deep learning technology, neural networks have demonstrated their excellent ability to provide accurate predictions in many tasks. However, a lack of consideration for neural network calibration will not gain trust from humans, even for high-accuracy models. In this regard, the gap between the confidence of the model's predictions and the actual correctness likelihood must be bridged to derive a well-calibrated model. In this paper, we introduce the Neural Clamping Toolkit, the first open-source framework designed to help developers employ state-of-the-art model-agnostic calibrated models. Furthermore, we provide animations and interactive sections in the demonstration to familiarize researchers with calibration in neural networks. A Colab tutorial on utilizing our toolkit is also introduced.

Scaling test-time compute is a promising axis for improving LLM capabilities. However, test-time compute can be scaled in a variety of ways, and effectively combining different approaches remains an active area of research. Here, we explore this problem in the context of solving real-world GitHub issues from the SWE-bench dataset. Our system, named CodeMonkeys, allows models to iteratively edit a codebase by jointly generating and running a testing script alongside their draft edit. We sample many of these multi-turn trajectories for every issue to generate a collection of candidate edits. This approach lets us scale "serial" test-time compute by increasing the number of iterations per trajectory and "parallel" test-time compute by increasing the number of trajectories per problem. With parallel scaling, we can amortize up-front costs across multiple downstream samples, allowing us to identify relevant codebase context using the simple method of letting an LLM read every file. In order to select between candidate edits, we combine voting using model-generated tests with a final multi-turn trajectory dedicated to selection. Overall, CodeMonkeys resolves 57.4% of issues from SWE-bench Verified using a budget of approximately 2300 USD. Our selection method can also be used to combine candidates from different sources. Selecting over an ensemble of edits from existing top SWE-bench Verified submissions obtains a score of 66.2% and outperforms the best member of the ensemble on its own. We fully release our code and data at https://scalingintelligence.stanford.edu/pubs/codemonkeys.

DNA-synthesis providers screen incoming orders by searching the requested sequence against curated hazard lists. We show that this baseline collapses to a 100% false-flag rate when the hazardous sequence comes from a taxonomic family absent from the reference set: under Conformal Risk Control's certified miss-rate constraint, a low-discrimination signal forces the threshold below the entire test-benign mass. We compose three signals derived from a synthesis order's public annotation: k-mer Jaccard similarity to known toxins, the trimmed-mean score of a five-LLM judge panel, and cosine similarity to clustered embedding centroids. Fused under a monotone logistic aggregator and calibrated by Conformal Risk Control, the resulting screener certifies E[FNR] le α. Across ten leave-one-taxonomic-family-out folds at α=0.05 on UniProt KW-0800 reviewed toxins, the calibrated screener achieves 0% test miss rate on every fold and 0% test false-flag rate on nine of ten folds. The bound's finite-sample slack 1/(n_{cal}+1) caps the certifiable miss rate at 1.77% on our 200-hazard subsample; reaching procurement-grade α=10^{-3} requires an 18times larger calibration set, which the full reviewed UniProt KW-0800 corpus is large enough to deliver. The binding constraint on certifiable DNA-synthesis screening is calibration data, not algorithms. Code: https://github.com/najmulhasan-code/crc-screen

Test-time scaling (TTS) has enhanced the performance of Reasoning Models (RMs) on various tasks such as math and coding, yet its efficacy in machine translation (MT) remains underexplored. This paper investigates whether increased inference-time computation improves translation quality. We evaluate 12 RMs across a diverse suite of MT benchmarks spanning multiple domains, examining three scenarios: direct translation, forced-reasoning extrapolation, and post-editing. Our findings show that for general-purpose RMs, TTS provides limited and inconsistent benefits for direct translation, with performance quickly plateauing. However, the effectiveness of TTS is unlocked by domain-specific fine-tuning, which aligns a model's reasoning process with task requirements, leading to consistent improvements up to an optimal, self-determined reasoning depth. We also find that forcing a model to reason beyond its natural stopping point consistently degrades translation quality. In contrast, TTS proves highly effective in a post-editing context, reliably turning self-correction into a beneficial process. These results indicate that the value of inference-time computation in MT lies not in enhancing single-pass translation with general models, but in targeted applications like multi-step, self-correction workflows and in conjunction with task-specialized models.

LLM agents often degrade over long episodes: as trajectories grow, they revisit explored states, repeat failed actions, and lose strategies that previously worked. Test-time training (TTT) offers a way to adapt model weights to the evolving task state, but existing LLM TTT methods largely adapt once to a fixed input. We study continuous TTT in multi-turn agent episodes, where each update changes the policy that generates later training text. This creates a self-training loop that helps when new trajectory information appears, but can amplify drift when the agent gets stuck and repeatedly trains on similar text. We find that update-text repetition distinguishes these regimes and introduce Agentic Test-Time Training (aTTT), a token-level reweighting method that downweights the loss on tokens appearing in repeated n-grams from prior updates while leaving novel tokens fully weighted. To run such updates inside live episodes, we build a concurrent serving system using vLLM's runtime LoRA API, limiting overhead to 1.9times the no-TTT cost. aTTT improves success by up to 5.0 points on ALFWorld and 4.9 points on SWE-bench Lite. The gains concentrate where models already have task competence but drift over long trajectories, suggesting that aTTT mainly preserves existing competence rather than teaching new abilities.

Whenever we use devices to take measurements, calibration is indispensable. While the purpose of calibration is to reduce bias and uncertainty in the measurements, it can be quite difficult, expensive, and sometimes even impossible to implement. We study a challenging problem called self-calibration, i.e., the task of designing an algorithm for devices so that the algorithm is able to perform calibration automatically. More precisely, we consider the setup y = A(d) x + epsilon where only partial information about the sensing matrix A(d) is known and where A(d) linearly depends on d. The goal is to estimate the calibration parameter d (resolve the uncertainty in the sensing process) and the signal/object of interests x simultaneously. For three different models of practical relevance, we show how such a bilinear inverse problem, including blind deconvolution as an important example, can be solved via a simple linear least squares approach. As a consequence, the proposed algorithms are numerically extremely efficient, thus potentially allowing for real-time deployment. We also present a variation of the least squares approach, which leads to a~spectral method, where the solution to the bilinear inverse problem can be found by computing the singular vector associated with the smallest singular value of a certain matrix derived from the bilinear system. Explicit theoretical guarantees and stability theory are derived for both techniques; and the number of sampling complexity is nearly optimal (up to a poly-log factor). Applications in imaging sciences and signal processing are discussed and numerical simulations are presented to demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of our approach.

Recently, test-time adaptation (TTA) has been proposed as a promising solution for addressing distribution shifts. It allows a base model to adapt to an unforeseen distribution during inference by leveraging the information from the batch of (unlabeled) test data. However, we uncover a novel security vulnerability of TTA based on the insight that predictions on benign samples can be impacted by malicious samples in the same batch. To exploit this vulnerability, we propose Distribution Invading Attack (DIA), which injects a small fraction of malicious data into the test batch. DIA causes models using TTA to misclassify benign and unperturbed test data, providing an entirely new capability for adversaries that is infeasible in canonical machine learning pipelines. Through comprehensive evaluations, we demonstrate the high effectiveness of our attack on multiple benchmarks across six TTA methods. In response, we investigate two countermeasures to robustify the existing insecure TTA implementations, following the principle of "security by design". Together, we hope our findings can make the community aware of the utility-security tradeoffs in deploying TTA and provide valuable insights for developing robust TTA approaches.