| "markdown": "# World (2026-05-12 23:40 UTC)\nRegime: Broad up-skew — markets resolving toward higher probability\nSimpleFunctions Index: Disagree 34 | GeoRisk 6 | Breadth +0.60 | Activity 100\nBaseline: last 12h\n\n## [divergence] total vote count for all participants… lagging distinct U.S. states satisfying the R… — 66¢ gap [US Elections]\n- lhs: {\"name\":\"Will the number of distinct U.S. states satisfying the REDISTRICTING Payout Crit\",\"Δ\":\"35c\"}\n- rhs: {\"name\":\"Will the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 NY-12 Democratic prim\",\"Δ\":\"13c\"}\n- gap: 66\n- theme: US Elections\n- triggerTicker: KXNUMREDISTRICTING-26NOV03-E9\n- laggingTicker: KXPRIMARYTURNOUT-NY12D26-90000\n → why? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-xec94n`\n → Will the number of distinct U.S. states satisfying the REDISTRICTING Payout Crit spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n → 6h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`\n\n## [residual] 8.3σ volume @ 68¢ — rate of CPI inflation be above 4.1% for the year …\n- ticker: KXCPIYOY-26JUN-T4.1\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.1% for the year ending in June 2026?: Above 4.1%\n- price: 68\n- residualVr: 8.329\n- vr: 15.718\n- volume24h: 834\n → why moving? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-3v3ntx`\n → volume path · `GET /api/public/market/KXCPIYOY-26JUN-T4.1`\n → related · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXCPIYOY-26JUN-T4.1`\n\n## [divergence] How many senators will vote for Trump… lagging Bank of Korea Maintain current rate a… — 42¢ gap [Fed / monetary policy]\n- lhs: {\"name\":\"Will the Bank of Korea Maintain current rate at the May Bank of Korea Monetary P\",\"Δ\":\"41c\"}\n- rhs: {\"name\":\"How many senators will vote for Trump's Fed chair nominee?: 54\",\"Δ\":\"18c\"}\n- gap: 42\n- theme: Fed / monetary policy\n- triggerTicker: KXCBDECISIONKOREA-26MAY27-HOLD\n- laggingTicker: 0x464aeac6e80c0059679972c0f2d6b3571114f7180b410fe8133034e4b3ee1350\n → why? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-l5qjbf`\n → Will the Bank of Korea Maintain current rate at the May Bank of Korea Monetary P spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n → 6h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`\n\n## [divergence] WTI front-month settle oil price be >… overshooting min WTI front month settle price reac… — 34¢ gap [Oil & energy]\n- lhs: {\"name\":\"Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $90.01 by May 29, 2026?: 90 \",\"Δ\":\"-36c\"}\n- rhs: {\"name\":\"Will the WTI front-month settle oil price be >107.99 on Nov 3, 2026?: $108 or a\",\"Δ\":\"27c\"}\n- gap: -34\n- theme: Oil & energy\n- triggerTicker: KXWTIMINM-26MAY29-T90.01\n- laggingTicker: KXWTI-26NOV03-T107.99\n → why? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-kce68t`\n → Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $90.01 by May 29, 2026?: 90 spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n → 6h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`\n\n## [residual] 3.5σ volume @ 26¢ — rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.3% in April?\n- ticker: KXPCECORE-26APR-T0.3\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.3% in April 2026?: Above 0.3%\n- price: 26\n- residualVr: 3.516\n- vr: 4.267\n- volume24h: 3322.68\n → why moving? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-hyf4gt`\n → volume path · `GET /api/public/market/KXPCECORE-26APR-T0.3`\n → related · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXPCECORE-26APR-T0.3`\n\n## [consensus_break] KY-06 Republican Primary Winner: 3 markets deeply split (σ=44¢, range 94¢)\n- seriesKey: 108773\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"0x3ddd971b3a8e67051ee345a3a87a3c0fe9d15be30812725cff89521c40fa8a0d\",\"title\":\"KY-06 Republican Primary Winner: Ralph Alvarado\",\"price\":97},{\"ticker\":\"0x87a3e85253e658...\n- dispersion: 44\n- range: 94\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-x8npdd`\n\n## [consensus_break] Italy inflation rate YoY for April be above …: 8 markets deeply split (σ=44¢, range 94¢)\n- seriesKey: KXITCPIPREL\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"KXITCPIPREL-26MAY15-T2.4\",\"title\":\"Will Italy inflation rate YoY for April 2026 be above 2.4%?: Above 2.4%\",\"price\":97},{\"ticker\":\"KXITCPIPREL-26MAY15-T2.5\",\"title\":...\n- dispersion: 44\n- range: 94\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-ji4oc6`\n\n## [consensus_break] USD/IRR for May be above 1,400,000?: 8 markets deeply split (σ=43¢, range 93¢)\n- seriesKey: KXUSDIRR\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"KXUSDIRR-26MAY29-T100\",\"title\":\"Will USD/IRR for May 2026 be above 1,000,000?: Above 1,000,000 \",\"price\":91},{\"ticker\":\"KXUSDIRR-26MAY29-T110\",\"title\":\"Will USD/IRR ...\n- dispersion: 43\n- range: 93\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-gtkbyf`\n\n## [resolving_soon] 95% yes in 4h — average **gas prices** be above?\n- ticker: KXAAAGASD-26MAY13-4.490\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will average **gas prices** be above $4.490?: Above 4.490\n- price: 95\n- settlesInHours: 4\n- impliedProbability: 0.95\n- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢\n- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢\n → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXAAAGASD-26MAY13-4.490`\n → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=catalyst`\n → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXAAAGASD-26MAY13-4.490`\n\n## [resolving_soon] 95% no in 4h — average **gas prices** be above?\n- ticker: KXAAAGASD-26MAY13-4.540\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will average **gas prices** be above $4.540?: Above 4.540\n- price: 5\n- settlesInHours: 4\n- impliedProbability: 0.05\n- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢\n- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢\n → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXAAAGASD-26MAY13-4.540`\n → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=catalyst`\n → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXAAAGASD-26MAY13-4.540`\n\n## Zoom\n- **Iran** — 212 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/iran`\n- **Oil & Energy** — 417 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/oil`\n- **Fed & Rates** — 1168 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/fed-rate`\n- **Recession** — 648 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/recession`\n- **2026 Elections** — 2923 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/election-2026`\n- **Crypto** — 1081 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/bitcoin`\n- **Ukraine/Russia** — 289 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/ukraine`\n- **China/Taiwan** — 392 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/china`\n\n---\nPath: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world\nOp: snapshot · Generated in 2805ms", |
