Add world state snapshot for 2026-05-12

2026-05-12.json

@@ -0,0 +1,123 @@
+{
+  "date": "2026-05-12",
+  "timestamp": "2026-05-12T23:50:44.384Z",
+  "index": {
+    "disagreement": 34,
+    "geoRisk": 6,
+    "breadth": 0.6,
+    "activity": 100
+  },
+  "traditional": [
+    {
+      "symbol": "SPY",
+      "price": 738.99,
+      "changePct": 0.16
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "QQQ",
+      "price": 713.7,
+      "changePct": 0.35
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "IWM",
+      "price": 285.36,
+      "changePct": 0.36
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "VIXY",
+      "price": 27.43,
+      "changePct": 1.48
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "SHY",
+      "price": 82.23,
+      "changePct": -0.09
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "IEF",
+      "price": 94.65,
+      "changePct": -0.32
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "TLT",
+      "price": 85.57,
+      "changePct": -0.57
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "HYG",
+      "price": 80,
+      "changePct": -0.16
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "GLD",
+      "price": 434.77,
+      "changePct": 0.22
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "USO",
+      "price": 139,
+      "changePct": 4.04
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "UNG",
+      "price": 11.22,
+      "changePct": 5.9
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "CPER",
+      "price": 39.38,
+      "changePct": 2.93
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "UUP",
+      "price": 27.35,
+      "changePct": 0.07
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "FXE",
+      "price": 108.66,
+      "changePct": -0.03
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "XLE",
+      "price": 57.18,
+      "changePct": 2.71
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "EEM",
+      "price": 67.92,
+      "changePct": -0.12
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "IBIT",
+      "price": 46.43,
+      "changePct": 2.25
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "ETHE",
+      "price": 18.95,
+      "changePct": 0.96
+    }
+  ],
+  "topics": [],
+  "topEdges": [],
+  "divergences": [
+    {
+      "description": "total vote count for all participants… lagging distinct U.S. states satisfying the R… — 66¢ gap [US Elections]",
+      "implication": "",
+      "affectedTickers": []
+    },
+    {
+      "description": "How many senators will vote for Trump… lagging Bank of Korea Maintain current rate a… — 42¢ gap [Fed / monetary policy]",
+      "implication": "",
+      "affectedTickers": []
+    },
+    {
+      "description": "WTI front-month settle oil price be >… overshooting min WTI front month settle price reac… — 34¢ gap [Oil & energy]",
+      "implication": "",
+      "affectedTickers": []
+    }
+  ],
+  "markdown": "# World (2026-05-12 23:40 UTC)\nRegime: Broad up-skew — markets resolving toward higher probability\nSimpleFunctions Index: Disagree 34 | GeoRisk 6 | Breadth +0.60 | Activity 100\nBaseline: last 12h\n\n## [divergence] total vote count for all participants… lagging distinct U.S. states satisfying the R… — 66¢ gap [US Elections]\n- lhs: {\"name\":\"Will the number of distinct U.S. states satisfying the REDISTRICTING Payout Crit\",\"Δ\":\"35c\"}\n- rhs: {\"name\":\"Will the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 NY-12 Democratic prim\",\"Δ\":\"13c\"}\n- gap: 66\n- theme: US Elections\n- triggerTicker: KXNUMREDISTRICTING-26NOV03-E9\n- laggingTicker: KXPRIMARYTURNOUT-NY12D26-90000\n  → why? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-xec94n`\n  → Will the number of distinct U.S. states satisfying the REDISTRICTING Payout Crit spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → 6h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`\n\n## [residual] 8.3σ volume @ 68¢ — rate of CPI inflation be above 4.1% for the year …\n- ticker: KXCPIYOY-26JUN-T4.1\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.1% for the year ending in June 2026?: Above 4.1%\n- price: 68\n- residualVr: 8.329\n- vr: 15.718\n- volume24h: 834\n  → why moving? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-3v3ntx`\n  → volume path · `GET /api/public/market/KXCPIYOY-26JUN-T4.1`\n  → related · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXCPIYOY-26JUN-T4.1`\n\n## [divergence] How many senators will vote for Trump… lagging Bank of Korea Maintain current rate a… — 42¢ gap [Fed / monetary policy]\n- lhs: {\"name\":\"Will the Bank of Korea Maintain current rate at the May Bank of Korea Monetary P\",\"Δ\":\"41c\"}\n- rhs: {\"name\":\"How many senators will vote for Trump's Fed chair nominee?: 54\",\"Δ\":\"18c\"}\n- gap: 42\n- theme: Fed / monetary policy\n- triggerTicker: KXCBDECISIONKOREA-26MAY27-HOLD\n- laggingTicker: 0x464aeac6e80c0059679972c0f2d6b3571114f7180b410fe8133034e4b3ee1350\n  → why? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-l5qjbf`\n  → Will the Bank of Korea Maintain current rate at the May Bank of Korea Monetary P spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → 6h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`\n\n## [divergence] WTI front-month settle oil price be >… overshooting min WTI front month settle price reac… — 34¢ gap [Oil & energy]\n- lhs: {\"name\":\"Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $90.01 by May 29, 2026?: 90 \",\"Δ\":\"-36c\"}\n- rhs: {\"name\":\"Will the WTI front-month settle oil price  be >107.99 on Nov 3, 2026?: $108 or a\",\"Δ\":\"27c\"}\n- gap: -34\n- theme: Oil & energy\n- triggerTicker: KXWTIMINM-26MAY29-T90.01\n- laggingTicker: KXWTI-26NOV03-T107.99\n  → why? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-kce68t`\n  → Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $90.01 by May 29, 2026?: 90  spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → 6h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`\n\n## [residual] 3.5σ volume @ 26¢ — rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.3% in April?\n- ticker: KXPCECORE-26APR-T0.3\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.3% in April 2026?: Above 0.3%\n- price: 26\n- residualVr: 3.516\n- vr: 4.267\n- volume24h: 3322.68\n  → why moving? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-hyf4gt`\n  → volume path · `GET /api/public/market/KXPCECORE-26APR-T0.3`\n  → related · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXPCECORE-26APR-T0.3`\n\n## [consensus_break] KY-06 Republican Primary Winner: 3 markets deeply split (σ=44¢, range 94¢)\n- seriesKey: 108773\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"0x3ddd971b3a8e67051ee345a3a87a3c0fe9d15be30812725cff89521c40fa8a0d\",\"title\":\"KY-06 Republican Primary Winner: Ralph Alvarado\",\"price\":97},{\"ticker\":\"0x87a3e85253e658...\n- dispersion: 44\n- range: 94\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n  → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-x8npdd`\n\n## [consensus_break] Italy inflation rate YoY for April be above …: 8 markets deeply split (σ=44¢, range 94¢)\n- seriesKey: KXITCPIPREL\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"KXITCPIPREL-26MAY15-T2.4\",\"title\":\"Will Italy inflation rate YoY for April 2026 be above 2.4%?: Above 2.4%\",\"price\":97},{\"ticker\":\"KXITCPIPREL-26MAY15-T2.5\",\"title\":...\n- dispersion: 44\n- range: 94\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n  → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-ji4oc6`\n\n## [consensus_break] USD/IRR for May be above 1,400,000?: 8 markets deeply split (σ=43¢, range 93¢)\n- seriesKey: KXUSDIRR\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"KXUSDIRR-26MAY29-T100\",\"title\":\"Will USD/IRR for May 2026 be above 1,000,000?: Above 1,000,000 \",\"price\":91},{\"ticker\":\"KXUSDIRR-26MAY29-T110\",\"title\":\"Will USD/IRR ...\n- dispersion: 43\n- range: 93\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n  → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-gtkbyf`\n\n## [resolving_soon] 95% yes in 4h — average **gas prices** be above?\n- ticker: KXAAAGASD-26MAY13-4.490\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will average **gas prices** be above $4.490?: Above 4.490\n- price: 95\n- settlesInHours: 4\n- impliedProbability: 0.95\n- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢\n- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢\n  → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXAAAGASD-26MAY13-4.490`\n  → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=catalyst`\n  → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXAAAGASD-26MAY13-4.490`\n\n## [resolving_soon] 95% no in 4h — average **gas prices** be above?\n- ticker: KXAAAGASD-26MAY13-4.540\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will average **gas prices** be above $4.540?: Above 4.540\n- price: 5\n- settlesInHours: 4\n- impliedProbability: 0.05\n- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢\n- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢\n  → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXAAAGASD-26MAY13-4.540`\n  → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=catalyst`\n  → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXAAAGASD-26MAY13-4.540`\n\n## Zoom\n- **Iran** — 212 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/iran`\n- **Oil & Energy** — 417 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/oil`\n- **Fed & Rates** — 1168 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/fed-rate`\n- **Recession** — 648 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/recession`\n- **2026 Elections** — 2923 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/election-2026`\n- **Crypto** — 1081 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/bitcoin`\n- **Ukraine/Russia** — 289 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/ukraine`\n- **China/Taiwan** — 392 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/china`\n\n---\nPath: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world\nOp: snapshot · Generated in 2805ms",
+  "markdownTokenEstimate": 1850
+}