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Risk Assessment and Treatment 2nd Edition Edited by Michael W. Elliott ARM™ A Risk Management Designation Program Powered by The Institutes<|user|>
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Digitized by the Internet Archive in 2024 https://archive.org/details/riskassessmenttr0000unse<|user|>
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Risk Assessment and Treatment<|user|>
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Risk Assessment and Treatment<|user|>
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Risk Assessment and Treatment Edited by Michael W. Elliott, CPCU, ARM, AIAF, MBA 2nd Edition • 2nd Printing The Institutes 720 Providence Road, Suite 100 Malvern, Pennsylvania 19355-3433<|user|>
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All rights reserved. This book or any part thereof may not be reproduced without the written permission of the copyright holder. Unless otherwise apparent, examples used in The Institutes materials related to this course are based on hypothetical situations and are for educational purposes only. The characters, person...
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Foreword The Institutes are the trusted leader in delivering proven knowledge solutions that drive powerful business results for the risk management and property-casualty insurance industry. For more than 100 years, The Institutes have been meeting the industry’s changing professional development needs with customer-d...
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Ethics—Ethical behavior is crucial to preserving not only the trust on which insurance transactions are based, but also the public’s trust in our industry as a whole. All Institutes designations now have an ethics requirement, which is delivered online and free of charge. The ethics requirement content is designed spec...
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Preface Risk Assessment and Treatment is the assigned textbook for the ARM 55 course in The Institutes’ Associate in Risk Management (ARM) designation program. This text provides learners with a broad understanding of the assessment and treatment techniques for the major categories of risk faced by all organizations, ...
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The image provided is too blurry and low-resolution to accurately recognize any text. Therefore, no text can be extracted from this image.<|user|>
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Contributors The Institutes acknowledge with deep appreciation the contributions made to the content of this text by the following persons: Susan Crowe, CPCU, MBA, AIC, ARe, ARM, API Beth Illian, CPCU, AINS, AIS Laura J. Partsch, JD<|user|>
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The image provided is too blurry to accurately recognize any text. It appears to be a blank or heavily blurred screen with no discernible content. Therefore, no text can be extracted from this image.<|user|>
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Contents Assignment 1 Introduction to Risk Assessment and Treatment 1.1 Overview of Risk Assessment 1.3 Categories of Risk Identification and Analysis Techniques 1.7 Risk Treatment 1.13 Traditional Accident Analysis Techniques 1.17 System Safety Analysis 1.22 Loss Control Techniques for Hazard Risk 1.28 Summary 1.32 ...
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Assignment 6 Legal and Regulatory Risk 6.1 Basis for Legal and Regulatory Risk 6.3 Legal and Regulatory Risk Consequences 6.8 Modifying Legal and Regulatory Risk 6.10 Legal Systems 6.16 International Law 6.22 Commercial Liability Loss Exposures 6.24 Assessing and Treating Legal and Regulatory Risk 6.30 Summary 6.34 As...
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Segment A Assignment 1 Introduction to Risk Assessment and Treatment Assignment 2 Root Cause Analysis Assignment 3 Business Continuity Management Assignment 4 Physical Property Risk<|user|>
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```markdown ```<|user|>
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Introduction to Risk Assessment and Treatment Educational Objectives After learning the content of this assignment, you should be able to: Describe the nature of risk assessment and the risk assessment process. Describe the major risk identification and analysis techniques. Describe the risk treatment process and ri...
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```markdown ```<|user|>
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Introduction to Risk Assessment and Treatment OVERVIEW OF RISK ASSESSMENT The risk assessment process provides information regarding uncertainties that can affect an organization’s ability to meet objectives. Risk assessment helps an organization to define the parameters of risk and to manage uncertainties. The risk...
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Risk Assessment allows an organization to identify uncertainties and to quantify the upsides and downsides of those uncertainties. Through analysis, the likelihood and consequences of events can be determined, which provide input for the risk treatment decision. Risk Assessment Process The risk assessment process is ...
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It is also important that those involved in the risk assessment process understand the tools and techniques available for assessing and treating risk. These tools and techniques vary based on the needs of an organization and can be qualitative or quantitative. They include questionnaires, checklists, cause-and-effect a...
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Risk Identification Risk identification involves reviewing all aspects of the internal and external environments to identify events that could either improve or inhibit the organization’s achievement of objectives. It is important at this step to uncover a complete inventory of possible risks to avoid the consequences ...
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CATEGORIES OF RISK IDENTIFICATION AND ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES Many types of techniques are available to identify and analyze risks. The technique used depends on the nature of the risk, the amount of data available, and other factors. Multiple techniques may be used throughout the risk identification and analysis process....
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Categories of Risk Identification and Analysis Techniques | Category | Examples | | :--- | :--- | | Questionnaires and Checklists | Risk analysis questionnaires Insurance coverage checklists | | Workshops | Brainstorming Delphi | | Cause-and-Effect Analysis | 5 Whys Fishbone (Ishikawa) Diagram | | Failure Analysis | H...
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advantages of this approach include a wider range of opinions, gained because of respondents’ anonymity, and the ability to use widely dispersed experts because the panel does not meet in person. A possible disadvantage is that the process can be time-consuming. This technique is used to address issues that are of mode...
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areas to study a process or procedure and examine how failures may result in a hazard. An important feature is the use of guide words that are appropriate for the process under consideration. For example, the terms “more” and “less” could be chosen to identify deviations that are higher or lower than expectations. The ...
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competitors in the market. Using this approach, a team forms and considers changes or major trends; then it develops various scenarios and possible outcomes related to these changes. Based on these outcomes, the team can identify, analyze, and evaluate risks. A Monte Carlo simulation uses random variables, such as gro...
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Additionally, distribution costs have increased by 10 percent. The organization is expanding its product line and will need to build another plant. It is considering whether to locate the new plant in Asia. Using a SWOT analysis, identify the strengths and weaknesses of building the new facility in Asia. Feedback: The...
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networks can capture many types of vital information, including environmental conditions, worker health and safety, incomplete shipments, temperature, and humidity levels. This information can be further analyzed using algorithms based on artificial intelligence or computer vision to identify conditions such as unantic...
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Available risk treatment techniques include these: - Avoid the risk - Modify the likelihood and/or impact of the risk - Transfer the risk - Retain the risk - Exploit the risk The appropriate treatment can be achieved by using the risk treatment process to select the appropriate risk treatment techniques. Risk Treatm...
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Risk Treatment Techniques Risk treatment techniques apply to hazard, operational, financial, and strategic risks. In general, available risk treatment options fall into the categories of avoidance, modification, transfer, retention, or exploitation. Because speculative risks can result in both negative and positive co...
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Identified risks can also be treated by modifying the likelihood and/or impact of events resulting in positive or negative outcomes. For hazard risks, modifying the likelihood of events focuses on loss prevention efforts to reduce overall loss frequency. Techniques designed to modify the impact of events recognize that...
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TRADITIONAL ACCIDENT ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES Accident analysis techniques assist risk management professionals in determining possible causes of accidents to help select appropriate risk control techniques. Many people have studied accident causation to provide a framework for analyzing the cause or causes of a particula...
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Domino theory An accident causation theory that presumes that accidents are the end result of a chain of accident factors. Sequence of Events (Domino Theory) The sequence of events theory, also known as the domino theory, was developed by H.W. Heinrich, a leading industrial safety engineer. He believed that the chain...
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the injury or illness will prevent that injury or illness. Removal of the third domino, the unsafe act and/or mechanical or physical hazard, is usually the best way to break the accident sequence and prevent injury or illness. See the exhibit “Sequence of Events (Domino Theory).” | Sequence of Events (Domino Theory) |...
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Energy Transfer Theory The energy transfer theory was developed by Dr. William Haddon Jr., an expert in public health and the first president of the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety. According to Haddon, the basic cause of accidents is energy out of control. The approach ("strategies") for preventing accidents o...
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This view of the root causes of accidents led Petersen to establish five basic principles of risk control: - An unsafe act, an unsafe condition, and an accident are all symptoms of something wrong in the management system. - Certain circumstances, unless identified and controlled, will produce severe injuries. - Safet...
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depends partially on the automobile’s weight. Change analysis can evaluate the safety implications of switching from gasoline to hybrid engines, changing the weight of the vehicles, and using various combinations of weight changes and hybrid engine options. This analysis may reveal that a particular combination of engi...
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produce the breakdown) and suggest cost-effective ways of preventing these system failures. The system safety approach differs from traditional accident causation approaches that focus on unsafe acts or conditions. In the traditional approach, once these conditions are identified, controls are applied to avoid future ...
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failure of any subsystem can endanger other subsystems and systems (including the entire organization). Systems are powered or moved by energy sources. For example, electricity is required to operate an organization’s computer systems, and fuel is required to move products from manufacturer to distributor. However, en...
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responsibility exists within the organization, management’s commitment to safety, and employee empowerment to raise issues and stop or refuse to work if a hazardous condition is detected. • The socioeconomic/legal environment includes social norms and conventions; safety, environmental, and transportation laws and reg...
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Operational phase A phase in the life of a system when the system is implemented. Disposal phase A phase in the life of a system when the system reaches the end of its useful life and is disposed of. phases. In the operational phase (or deployment phase), when the system is fully functional, safety features built int...
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to loss control programs. See the exhibit “Loss Control Techniques for Each System.” Loss Control Techniques for Each System System/Component Possible Loss Control Technique Braking system Purchase better parts components/parts or replace them more often Truck's brake system Purchase trucks that use a more reliable b...
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LOSS CONTROL TECHNIQUES FOR HAZARD RISK Hazard risks are pure risks that arise from property, liability, or personnel loss exposures and are generally the subject of insurance. Once the causes of potential or past losses arising from hazard risk have been determined, loss control techniques must be selected and implem...
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retailers. Despite its inherent difficulties, avoidance should be considered when the expected value of the losses from an activity outweighs the expected benefits of that activity. For example, a toy manufacturer might decide not to produce a particular toy because the cost of the products liability claims would outwe...
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reduction does for the severity of losses. To assess loss reduction opportunities, risk management professionals must assume that an accident has occurred and then consider what could have been done, either before or after the accident, to reduce the size or extent of the resulting loss. The two broad categories of lo...
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smaller. The distinction between separation and duplication is how often the organization will be relying on the asset or activity. Duplication is appropriate if an entire asset or activity is so important that the consequence of its loss justifies the expense and time of maintaining the duplicate. An example of duplic...
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simply to reduce the severity of losses to the first warehouse. However, if an organization is considering building a second warehouse to expand production, the risk management benefits of a second warehouse can strengthen the argument in favor of the expansion. In contrast, duplication is often prompted by risk manag...
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analysis, strategy analysis, and emerging technologies and smart products. Several of these techniques are often used throughout the risk identification and analysis process. The risk treatment process involves assessing specific risk treatment options to determine whether residual risks are tolerable to an organizati...
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```markdown ```<|user|>
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Root Cause Analysis Educational Objectives After learning the content of this assignment, you should be able to: - Describe root cause analysis and the steps in the root cause analysis process. - Explain how an organization can use failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) to assess and mitigate risk. - Explain how a...
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```markdown ```<|user|>
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INTRODUCTION TO ROOT CAUSE ANALYSIS Determination of an accident’s root cause allows organizations to discern the cause of a harmful event and prevent such events from recurring. When an accident occurs in the workplace, the cause may initially appear obvious. For example, if a customer slips on a restaurant floor, a...
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• A root cause must be expressed as something that can be modified. For example, weather conditions or an earthquake could not be considered root causes because such events are beyond human control. In the machine guard example, the root cause could conceivably be maintenance of the machine or personnel problems. If an...
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Steps in the Root Cause Analysis Process The RCA process is a systematic way to determine root cause. See the exhibit "Steps in the Root Cause Analysis Process." Steps in the Root Cause Analysis Process Data Collection Causal Factor Charting Root Cause Identification Recommendation Determination and Implementatio...
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The first step in the RCA process is data collection. Root causes associated with an event cannot be identified without complete information about the surrounding circumstances, facts, and causes. The second step in the process is causal factors charting. This provides the structure to organize and analyze the data ga...
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The first step is to collect data by taking statements from George, the other driver, witnesses, and first responders. They investigated the accident scene to determine road conditions. The delivery truck brakes were examined by a mechanic to determine if they were functioning properly. The next step is to chart the c...
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Root Cause Mapping Start here with each Casual Factor Equipment difficulty Brake Maintenance Problem? Procedure in place Accountability Inadequate training Brake Maintenance Procedural Problem? • Procedure difficult to follow • No specific person responsible for task • No procedure or task • No training • Decision ...
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Root Cause Summary Table Determinations From Root Cause Map Recommendations Causal Factor 1 Description: Brakes did not "catch" Equipment difficulty—Brakes failed to engage. Equipment reliability program design less than adequate—Procedure to inspect/maintain brakes was not adequate. Active implementation less than...
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Effects analysis The study of a failure’s consequences to determine a risk event’s root cause(s). Indenture level An item’s relative complexity within an assembly, system, or function. Local effect The consequence of a failure mode on the operation, function, or status of the specific item or system level under analy...
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FMEA can be followed by a criticality analysis. These four categories of failures are used in criticality analysis: - Category 1—failure resulting in excessive unscheduled maintenance - Category 2—failure resulting in delay or loss of operational availability - Category 3—failure resulting in potential mission failure...
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To calculate the RPN, the rankings for consequences, occurrences, and detection are multiplied. The resulting product is then compared with RPNs associated with other failures. The failure associated with the highest RPN usually is addressed first. However, the failure associated with the highest RPN is not always the ...
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Criticality Example C = Consequence rankings O = Occurrence rankings D = Detection rankings $$\frac{C}{10} \times \frac{O}{10} \times \frac{D}{2} = \frac{RPN}{200}$$ While the second RPN is higher, the first would require more immediate attention because it has consequence (10) and criticality (10 × 10 = 100) number...
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FMEA Example Function | Potential Failure Mode | Potential Effect(s) of Failure | C | Potential Cause(s) of Failure | O | Current Process Controls | D | RPN | CRIT Dispense soda when correct amount of money is inserted in machine - Does not dispense soda - Customer very annoyed | 6 | Machine out of sodas | 7 | On r...
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These are the disadvantages associated with FMEA: • When used as a top-down tool, FMEA may only identify major failure modes in a system. • Other analysis methods might be better suited for this type of analysis. When used as a bottom-up tool, it can complement other methods, such as fault tree analysis (FTA), and id...
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Adding Probabilities to a Fault Tree A fault tree also can be used to calculate the probability of the risk event if the probabilities of the causal events are known. An “and” gate requires calculating the joint probability that all the events immediately below it will occur. If the probabilities of events in rectangl...
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$$p(S \text{ and } T \text{ and } U) = p(S) \times p(T) \times p(U)$$ $$= .15 \times .20 \times .30$$ $$= .009$$ An “or” gate requires calculating the probability that any one or more of the events directly below it will occur. This probability is also the probability that the chain of events will proceed through that...
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Five Steps of Fault Tree Analysis To ensure that a fault tree includes all necessary and sufficient events and is useful as a risk management tool, risk management professionals should follow five steps: 1. Identify a specific harmful event to construct the fault tree. Be as specific as possible so that events contri...
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“5 WHYS” ANALYSIS AND THE FISHBONE DIAGRAM A team of investigators can use a fishbone, or Ishikawa, diagram to determine the root cause of a risk event. When used with a “5 Whys” analysis, a fishbone diagram also can reveal relationships among the variables in a process or system. Creating a fishbone diagram is a roo...
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5 Whys Example The exhibit illustrates how an accident can be traced to its root cause. In practice, a worksheet typically is based on the chain of command within the organization and poses questions at all levels. See the exhibit “5 Whys Analysis of Hand Injury to Press Operator.” 5 Whys Analysis of Hand Injury to Pr...
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The investigator(s) could have stopped at the fourth or fifth why, but doing that would not have determined the root cause of the problem. By the time this analysis reaches the last why, it becomes evident that a broken process or management practice is the accident’s root cause. This is a common conclusion of this typ...
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The most frequently used categories are industry- or process-specific and are known by names that signify the first letter of each of the categories within the group. For example, the “6 Ms” group of categories typically is used to determine root causes of problems in manufacturing: • Machine (technology)—Any equipmen...
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The 4 Ms is a simplified version of the 6 Ms that uses only the categories of machine, method, materials, and manpower. Though seldom used, the 8 Ms adds the categories management/money power and maintenance to the 6 Ms. As another example, an organization in the service industry might use the 8 Ps or the 5 Ss. See the...
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7. For each of the specific causes listed in the previous step, the team again asks, “Why did this happen?” The facilitator writes the sub-causes as branches from the causes. The team continues to ask why to generate deeper levels of causes. As the layers of branches are drawn on the diagram, causal relationships are r...
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SUMMARY The root cause analysis process involves four steps: 1. Data collection 2. Causal factor charting 3. Root cause identification 4. Recommendation determination and implementation FMEA is a root cause analysis technique used predominantly in product development and operations management. Its ultimate objective...
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the probability of their occurrence and apply the loss control techniques that will be most beneficial in preventing the harmful event. A 5 Whys analysis involves asking the question “why” repeatedly about a problem until its root cause is revealed. It does not require statistical analysis and requires very little, if...
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Business Continuity Management Educational Objectives After learning the content of this assignment, you should be able to: - Describe the evolution of business continuity management and its alignment with risk management. - Explain how risk mitigation is achieved through business continuity planning. - Describe the...
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```markdown ```<|user|>
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INTRODUCTION TO BUSINESS CONTINUITY MANAGEMENT When an organization suffers any level of disruption—from a relatively minor occurrence, such as a market downturn, or a major catastrophic event—its leaders must act to restore normal operations. An organization can use business continuity management (BCM) to address po...
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organizations, disaster recovery is still considered an IT function. However, as technology became pervasive in nearly all business operational functions, the concept of disaster recovery planning expanded to include planning for the protection and recovery of operational systems in the event of a disaster. In the bro...
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the effect of market forces on financial assets or liabilities), and strategic risk (resulting from economic and societal trends). Organizations that treat BCM and risk management as complementary rather than competing functions can benefit from an integrated approach. For example, risk management’s identification of ...
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If an organization chooses to participate, it develops a preparedness plan under one of the three standards and submits it to a DHS accrediting organization. Certification confirms that the organization’s plan complies with the standard chosen. Once an organization is certified, periodic audits are conducted to confirm...
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Once the organization determines its key objectives (for example, a key objective may be “continuing to manufacture and sell widgets”), it must examine how it uses its facilities, materials supply chain, human resources, communications, information systems, processes, distribution channels, and customers to achieve the...
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Developing the Continuity Plan After it has conducted the BIA and performed a risk assessment to establish recovery time objectives, an organization can begin to develop strategies to maintain critical functions during disruptions. Organizations may use one strategy or a combination of strategies to ensure resiliency:...
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Implementing the Continuity Plan Senior management must impress upon the organization that the BCP is integral to its survival and success. The business continuity coordinator (BCC) assists and directs each department in formulating a departmental plan. This ensures that the organization’s component parts work effecti...
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need to be addressed. Exercises also provide opportunities to amend the BCP as new processes are introduced and used. External suppliers and customers should know that the organization has a BCP and be encouraged to provide their own contingency plans. When key suppliers and customers are prepared for a disruption of ...
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Strategic Redeployment Planning Stages A strategic redeployment plan (SRP) is a comprehensive plan for resiliency after a severe disruption. It is designed to bring the organization back from a state of chaos in four stages: - Emergency stage - Alternate marketing stage - Contingency production stage - Communication ...
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Some organizations may use a color-coded approach at this stage, using “red,” “yellow,” or “green” to denote the level of disruption. Green indicates that the current strategy should be maintained. A new marketing strategy developed during this stage may determine, at a minimum, whether the organization will maintain ...
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