id stringlengths 20 20 | creatorId stringlengths 28 28 | creatorUsername stringlengths 1 24 | creatorName stringlengths 1 29 | createdTime int64 1,640B 1,717B | creatorAvatarUrl stringlengths 84 1.01k | closeTime int64 1,642B 1,718B | question stringlengths 2 282 | slug stringlengths 8 48 | url stringlengths 39 94 | pool dict | probability float64 0 1 | p float64 0.01 1 | totalLiquidity float64 10.1 12.1k | outcomeType stringclasses 1
value | mechanism stringclasses 1
value | volume float64 0 1.54M | volume24Hours float64 0 11.2k | isResolved bool 1
class | resolution stringclasses 2
values | resolutionTime int64 1,642B 1,718B | resolutionProbability float64 -1 1 | uniqueBettorCount int64 0 2.16k | lastUpdatedTime int64 1,640B 1,718B | lastBetTime int64 -1 1,718B | lastCommentTime int64 -1 1,718B | groupSlugs listlengths 0 17 | textDescription stringlengths 0 7.4k | marketTier stringclasses 2
values | resolverId stringclasses 733
values | coverImageUrl stringlengths 94 581 ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PwX0fa4chWoLKXTk0ATR | KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2 | EnopoletusHarding | Enopoletus Harding | 1,653,012,656,339 | 1,654,054,544,113 | Will A. Karlin write a retrospective on the Ukrainian conflict before the end of the month? | will-a-karlin-write-a-retrospective | https://manifold.markets/EnopoletusHarding/will-a-karlin-write-a-retrospective | {
"NO": 58.08690845137009,
"YES": 309.69056719197636
} | 0.09044 | 0.346458 | 101.856597 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 210 | 0 | true | NO | 1,654,054,544,113 | 0.09044 | 3 | 1,654,053,464,652 | 1,654,053,464,492 | -1 | [
"politics-default",
"ukrainerussia-war"
] | This market will resolve to Yes if A. Karlin writes a retrospective on the Ukrainian conflict before the end of the month. It will resolve to No if he does not.
https://akarlin.substack.com | N/A | null | null | |
fgRKxwOx2Ov1dcjCEkLH | FEjxVPee2Ea629lFxmpnbbAoYfl2 | tofu | tofu | 1,671,292,220,690 | 1,690,850,248,766 | Will Apple surpass $3 trillion market cap anytime before the end of 2023? | will-apple-surpass-3-trillion-marke | https://manifold.markets/tofu/will-apple-surpass-3-trillion-marke | {
"NO": 13591.095950423885,
"YES": 167.40242151480214
} | 0.996764 | 0.791411 | 890 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 38,771.026323 | 0 | true | YES | 1,690,850,248,766 | 1 | 47 | 1,690,850,264,704 | 1,690,566,629,701 | 1,690,850,254,530 | [
"global-macro",
"economics-default"
] | https://companiesmarketcap.com/apple/marketcap/ | N/A | null | ||
m7Ru8calKRahfjPI1YWV | kbHiTAGBahXdX9Z4sW29JpNrB0l2 | Ernie | Ernie | 1,695,318,830,896 | 1,711,219,141,022 | Will the Barkley Marathons be completed by a woman anytime through 2033 | will-the-barkley-marathons-be-compl | https://manifold.markets/Ernie/will-the-barkley-marathons-be-compl | {
"NO": 3785.931215835025,
"YES": 19.4573670047439
} | 0.997223 | 0.648612 | 130 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 3,980.204531 | 0 | true | YES | 1,711,219,141,022 | 1 | 5 | 1,711,219,141,022 | 1,711,195,209,318 | 1,711,214,292,303 | [
"running",
"barkley-marathons"
] | For clarity I'm referring to an XX born woman not known to ever be on male hormones | N/A | kbHiTAGBahXdX9Z4sW29JpNrB0l2 | null | |
I32Xvsg5tya8P8HLACdn | Wo2etMvKRKaOrlEMWUD9liFY5xk2 | Orca | Orcatron | 1,702,874,111,737 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLhML-PPkGeBCMJUgxx90-h3AzhZwuGvkTJjFyB-ROE=s96-c | 1,703,820,600,000 | NFL🏈: Week 17: Will the New York Jets win their TNF NFL Game against the Cleveland Browns on 12/28? | nfl-week-17-will-the-new-york-jets | https://manifold.markets/Orca/nfl-week-17-will-the-new-york-jets | {
"NO": 78.25142973326204,
"YES": 1559.1848593176144
} | 0.021157 | 0.30103 | 210 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 3,790.28271 | 0 | true | NO | 1,703,826,906,933 | 0.02 | 11 | 1,710,206,766,929 | 1,703,820,284,770 | -1 | [
"nfl",
"new-york-jets",
"cleveland-browns"
] | I will close the betting 2 hours after kickoff to prevent last minute betting based on actual scores on the field.
Closes at 7:30 PM PACIFIC TIME!!! | N/A | Wo2etMvKRKaOrlEMWUD9liFY5xk2 | |
2mojMAwXhsJZBr9ebhii | zPHQcxyXADVDAp0Km9ZSYdj2ti03 | CquilPromp | Cquil Promp | 1,694,701,372,928 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtduBMX-RGqTEB45Q03dKPvo7uMLGtOUNTXlg5R5gv9k4Q=s96-c | 1,694,718,000,000 | Will the temperature in Central Park September 14th at 3:51pm be in the 71-73° range? | will-the-temperature-in-central-par-ffb64073ee65 | https://manifold.markets/CquilPromp/will-the-temperature-in-central-par-ffb64073ee65 | {
"NO": 206.31206375176998,
"YES": 337.7867994799764
} | 0.186639 | 0.273095 | 250 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 262.825161 | 0 | true | NO | 1,694,723,201,064 | 0.19 | 11 | 1,694,716,869,975 | 1,694,716,869,669 | -1 | [
"new-york",
"weather",
"climate"
] | Will the air temperature in Central Park, New York, be in the 71-73° range at 3:51pm (15:51) on Sept 14, 2023 ?
Question closes 3:00pm ET
Resolves according to:
https://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KNYC.html
| N/A | null | null |
gfBD2B6ViLTghomOmuwM | H8mXkmJcikfoYF0rQQ83qsHEWRn1 | MP | MP | 1,672,763,219,606 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMP%2FJMyU-Pb-y4.51?alt=media&token=445f6754-d875-41a9-ad73-c272a1e866bf | 1,703,884,489,388 | Will small-cap growth be the best stock market factor in the US in 2023? | will-smallcap-growth-be-the-best-st | https://manifold.markets/MP/will-smallcap-growth-be-the-best-st | {
"NO": 25.866044740292182,
"YES": 4255.993924487186
} | 0.003845 | 0.388403 | 190 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 4,076.006076 | 0 | true | NO | 1,703,884,489,388 | 0 | 8 | 1,703,884,659,623 | 1,703,884,471,802 | 1,703,884,658,153 | [
"2023-stocks-forecasting",
"stocks",
"new-years-resolutions-2024"
] | Since 2021, small-cap growth has had one of the worst stints of relative returns in a long time.
[image]If the total return for the ETF IWO (Russell 2000 Growth) outperforms the IVE, IVW, and IWN in 2023, this market settles to YES. I will use Koyfin's total return.
Other related markets
[markets](https://manifold.m... | N/A | H8mXkmJcikfoYF0rQQ83qsHEWRn1 | |
kBFAkN8CSo1tEJJHlZ3t | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | SirCryptomind | SirCryptomind | 1,711,376,559,029 | 1,711,954,800,000 | Will I Hit My April 2024 Office Expenses Goal On My BuyMeACoffee Wishlist During March 2024? | will-i-hit-my-april-2024-office-exp | https://manifold.markets/SirCryptomind/will-i-hit-my-april-2024-office-exp | {
"NO": 155.2087238518008,
"YES": 156.14732961035378
} | 0.410953 | 0.412413 | 160 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 226.213645 | 0 | true | NO | 1,711,958,689,121 | 0.41 | 5 | 1,711,954,800,000 | 1,711,914,383,384 | 1,711,914,129,524 | [
"personal-goals",
"nonpredictive",
"donations",
"crowdfunding",
"moderators"
] | Will I Hit My April 2024 Office Expenses Goal On My BuyMeACoffee Wishlist During March 2024?
Resolution:
Resolves YES if 100% or more Funded.
Resolves NO if 99% or Less is Funded.
Context/Link:
https://www.buymeacoffee.com/sircryptomind/wishlist
[image]UPDATED GOAL:
[image]I DO NOT BET ON MY MARKETS | N/A | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | null | |
fQhy9nDGdOu8QTUBEN25 | Hc4whU0Kg8gwzkCR41pXRyrL4u02 | AndyMartin | Andy Martin | 1,646,447,280,410 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJw0L052KDniGlcKQYGazhwe1SmubhJvKPt9aqoU=s96-c | 1,649,031,253,791 | Will the "40 mile long convoy" have a meaningfully positive impact for Russia in its invasion of Ukraine by May 2022? | will-the-40-mile-long-convoy-have-a | https://manifold.markets/AndyMartin/will-the-40-mile-long-convoy-have-a | {
"NO": 100,
"YES": 100
} | 0.056083 | 0.056083 | 100 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,011.838568 | 0 | true | NO | 1,649,031,253,791 | 0.056083 | 11 | 1,646,447,280,410 | -1 | 1,647,096,917,626 | [] | From https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/03/europe/russian-convoy-stalled-outside-kyiv-intl/index.html -
> On Thursday, US intelligence suggested that the convoy was still stalled some distance from Kyiv, backing claims made by both the Ukrainian government and UK's defense ministry.
>
> "We still assess that the convoy tha... | N/A | null | null |
Hsck7UTqeuGCrqkNuG2B | tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2 | SG | SG | 1,670,967,625,566 | 1,704,067,140,000 | Will the Hong Kong Dollar (HKD) peg break by the end of 2023? | will-the-hong-kong-dollar-hkd-peg-b | https://manifold.markets/SG/will-the-hong-kong-dollar-hkd-peg-b | {
"NO": 685.814831924968,
"YES": 1338.1649099222209
} | 0.044135 | 0.082647 | 750 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,512.365635 | 0 | true | NO | 1,704,143,086,488 | 0.04 | 14 | 1,704,143,086,761 | 1,703,792,575,996 | -1 | [
"currency",
"finance",
"fx-rates",
"new-years-resolutions-2024"
] | Background: Why was the Hong Kong dollar pegged to the US dollar? / On Betting Against the Hong Kong Dollar (by @ByrneHobart)
I define the "peg breaking" as USD/HKD trading at or above HK$7.900 for at least a 24 hour period. | N/A | tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2 | null | |
8aDY60A3UJDrWzzqi71R | vqzP814GiUf0mm7j2SHkiy5vixy1 | AVS | AVS | 1,671,784,015,987 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxOdjufQBz5ZO2pfxGwJKglhiWwsNVt1TDjdChO=s96-c | 1,704,059,940,000 | Will Russia legally prohibit using VPN services or personal VPNs before the end of 2023? | will-russia-legally-prohibit-using | https://manifold.markets/AVS/will-russia-legally-prohibit-using | {
"NO": 209.3006009858889,
"YES": 7117.41279240397
} | 0.016569 | 0.364248 | 850 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 7,445.810206 | 0 | true | NO | 1,704,089,163,313 | 0.02 | 43 | 1,704,089,164,319 | 1,704,056,946,949 | 1,704,061,275,946 | [
"russia",
"internet",
"internet-censorship",
"new-years-resolutions-2024",
"ukrainerussia-war"
] | This market resolves YES if, before the end of 2023, it becomes illegal in Russia to use a VPN for personal purposes. If it is allowed only with special permission or in a way that potentially makes your traffic more vulnerable, this market also resolves YES.
If you find any ambiguities in the market resolution criter... | N/A | vqzP814GiUf0mm7j2SHkiy5vixy1 | |
zr0Vw4lJKTQBZvY7KBJm | lg0za1E37yR4kGP5rcsc5sGUQW73 | JeffKaufman | Jeff Kaufman | 1,696,510,794,551 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp6Od8vuN4D1xT20AJN03oeG7Gd36qcbp8ZXuiLRxA=s96-c | 1,698,269,825,585 | Will McHenry as Speaker pro-tempore conduct legislative business? | will-mchenry-as-speaker-protempore | https://manifold.markets/JeffKaufman/will-mchenry-as-speaker-protempore | {
"NO": 160.53273077916998,
"YES": 10932.459513928829
} | 0.011827 | 0.449057 | 1,230 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 22,046.77367 | 0 | true | NO | 1,698,269,825,585 | 0.01 | 106 | 1,698,261,798,877 | 1,698,261,798,586 | 1,697,805,691,020 | [
"speaker-of-the-house-election",
"us-politics",
"118th-congress"
] | It seems to currently be unclear whether McHenry, in his role as speaker pro-tempore of the House, is able to conduct legislative business:
In the meantime, other action on the House floor, including any legislative business, is likely to be halted. House staff aides believe the acting speaker may wield the gavel only... | N/A | null | null |
R4y8efJjQknBNVoAVk0k | 9GSWaFCPsaguZwima6TxzyFWup13 | johnleoks | johnleoks | 1,678,399,091,411 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1fEWiQZNBclZJIqG3iTleWTsdH5ReWs20Omf7ktA=s96-c | 1,678,905,257,696 | Will Destiny's short "Pearl Thinks Women Have it Easier Than Men 😔" reach 10k views by 3/16 9 A.M. PST? | will-destinys-short-pearl-thinks-wo | https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/will-destinys-short-pearl-thinks-wo | {
"NO": 11966.17728652219,
"YES": 38.575506508706894
} | 0.999076 | 0.777103 | 170 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 11,835 | 0 | true | YES | 1,678,905,257,696 | 1 | 7 | 1,710,218,560,962 | 1,678,905,254,111 | 1,678,905,296,180 | [
"destinygg"
] | https://youtube.com/shorts/bN4OeDaIFAE?feature=share
If no screenshots are posted showing the viewcount of this video after the market has closed, then as the market creator, I will at my earliest convenience (since I can't always be there at time of closing) look at the current viewcount number and use that figure to... | N/A | null | |
KHQk7RFuQHKTgvBlqmTb | ZJuHQWOPh1VpggdeZT6jfHKCO8a2 | Akzzz123 | AK | 1,683,322,524,490 | 1,693,552,291,757 | Will the next Starship Orbital Launch attempt occur before the end of August 2023? | will-the-next-starship-orbital-laun-aea2cdea34a4 | https://manifold.markets/Akzzz123/will-the-next-starship-orbital-laun-aea2cdea34a4 | {
"NO": 330.60654882296194,
"YES": 51739.93011450828
} | 0.002679 | 0.29594 | 1,850 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 81,058.126403 | 0 | true | NO | 1,693,552,291,757 | 0 | 105 | 1,693,552,269,799 | 1,693,552,269,677 | 1,692,885,096,223 | [
"spacex"
] | Resolves YES if an official SpaceX social media channel puts up a livestream entitled "Starship Orbital Flight Test", "Starship Orbital Launch", or similar, which shows a live feed of Starship and a countdown, NO if there is clearly no such livestream by market close, and N/A if it is ambiguous whether this has happene... | N/A | null | ||
PDLQZty2N09TjtCV37On | NaOxfCzBKCX4Th76aI4aPMAI4tU2 | WillHenry | H. E. L. O - T | 1,705,472,730,459 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FWillHenry%2FboLlcTpR1s.gondra_aguirre-1971478879?alt=media&token=9dd97b51-04f9-4cd7-a8f8-9c12d9cedfde | 1,705,689,431,693 | Will Japan successfully land its lunar probe "moon sniper" within 100 meters of its specified target by January 20th? | will-japan-successfully-land-its-lu | https://manifold.markets/WillHenry/will-japan-successfully-land-its-lu | {
"NO": 763.2987716930759,
"YES": 104.97663064028285
} | 0.94216 | 0.69138 | 210 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 675.502813 | 0 | true | YES | 1,705,689,431,693 | 0.94 | 11 | 1,710,208,084,017 | 1,705,688,091,450 | 1,705,688,310,588 | [
"space-exploration",
"moon",
"moon-landers",
"aerospace",
"luna-lander"
] | Japan’s “Moon Sniper” mission was successfully launched on 6 September 2023 at 23:42 UTC. If the mission is successful, Japan will become the fifth country to touch down safely on the lunar surface, and the first to do it with extraordinary precision.
The Smart Lander for Investigating Moon (Slim) got its Sniper nickn... | N/A | NaOxfCzBKCX4Th76aI4aPMAI4tU2 | |
mT14ONZ6i6q48mP17ogD | c4Cw1UMPB9U2Gf5m2eDTw35WK263 | Dentosal | Dentosal | 1,697,436,462,691 | 1,698,798,504,259 | Will manifold.love reach 50 active profiles in Europe by end of 2024? | will-manifoldlove-reach-50-active-p | https://manifold.markets/Dentosal/will-manifoldlove-reach-50-active-p | {
"NO": 5197.0146471029075,
"YES": 122.38090518036446
} | 0.987483 | 0.65007 | 490 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 5,678.172212 | 0 | true | YES | 1,698,798,504,259 | 0.99 | 24 | 1,698,795,684,009 | 1,698,795,683,899 | 1,698,795,560,171 | [
"manifold-dating",
"manifold-user-retention",
"online-dating",
"manifold-6748e065087e"
] | Definitions:
Will - This is what makes this a question
manifold.love - Manifold-related dating app that's supposed to launch soon. In case the service is hosted at different domain, as long as it's run by Manifold, it still counts.
reach 50 - The number will be this high at least once before the market closes
activ... | N/A | null | null | |
LAyOnFiStH1zvedB0Eea | DMDx71NrJPSBsUJrRcrGPVFUp0H2 | erwald | Erich | 1,660,940,386,580 | 1,662,847,140,000 | Will the Swedish Social Democrats stay in power after the 2022 election? | will-the-swedish-social-democrats-s | https://manifold.markets/erwald/will-the-swedish-social-democrats-s | {
"NO": 281.00411281590465,
"YES": 142.34667101191275
} | 0.663762 | 0.5 | 200 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 212.394881 | 0 | true | NO | 1,663,283,499,035 | 0.663762 | 9 | 1,663,097,169,720 | 1,662,819,889,582 | 1,663,097,164,413 | [
"politics-default"
] | Resolves positively if the first government formed after the 2022 Swedish general election has a Social Democratic prime minister, and negatively otherwise.
=> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Swedish_general_election | N/A | null | null | |
G1fp49RN9sI8h064R3ED | jKFmyVeG2gcn01NekfR0sJYHuqt2 | drewski | drewski | 1,697,310,588,515 | 1,699,549,266,172 | Will Oregon's Extreme Drought end by the end of 2023? | will-oregons-extreme-drought-end-by | https://manifold.markets/drewski/will-oregons-extreme-drought-end-by | {
"NO": 288.88783268059245,
"YES": 54.16567322518373
} | 0.92 | 0.683165 | 110 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 308.587708 | 0 | true | YES | 1,699,549,266,172 | 0.92 | 5 | 1,699,546,552,242 | 1,699,546,470,492 | 1,699,546,550,711 | [
"weather",
"climate"
] | The Pacific Northwest has been hit hard by drought this year after a very dry summer.
[image]Currently Much of the Oregon cascades are seeing extreme drought (D3) as categorized by the US drought monitor: Oregon | U.S. Drought Monitor (unl.edu). There is currently 4.32% of the state in Extreme drought.
Resolves to YE... | N/A | null | null | |
pProH3FDv5fj8gyM3gaa | EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1 | FranklinBaldo | Franklin Baldo | 1,690,976,148,714 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucry6frpI5BKtmRvdVqmUQnkFdfnFn-LeH3bdV64feY=s96-c | 1,704,081,540,000 | Will the White House Press Secretary giggle when asked about UFOs before 2024? | will-the-white-house-press-secretar | https://manifold.markets/FranklinBaldo/will-the-white-house-press-secretar | {
"NO": 148.28632072974935,
"YES": 1719.2263390314622
} | 0.030515 | 0.267357 | 330 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,661.217975 | 0 | true | NO | 1,704,086,295,301 | 0.03 | 18 | 1,704,086,295,632 | 1,704,079,866,432 | 1,699,955,517,508 | [
"us-politics",
"ufo",
"new-years-resolutions-2024"
] | This market is about the reaction of the White House Press Secretary when asked about Unidentified Flying Objects (UFOs). The question is whether the Press Secretary will giggle during a press conference when asked about UFOs before the end of 2023.
Resolution Criteria:
The market will resolve to 'Yes' if there is cr... | N/A | EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1 | |
vQfo2GSy85ZTiC9Z8H3P | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | jack | Jack | 1,664,895,640,719 | 1,672,549,140,000 | Will a strategic (not tactical) nuclear weapon be detonated offensively in 2022? | will-a-strategic-not-tactical-nucle | https://manifold.markets/jack/will-a-strategic-not-tactical-nucle | {
"NO": 69.05494554374877,
"YES": 1048.0831062822958
} | 0.014592 | 0.18351 | 160 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 985.002796 | 0 | true | NO | 1,672,549,752,135 | 0.01 | 5 | 1,670,248,739,185 | 1,670,248,739,043 | -1 | [
"nuclear-risk"
] | This question will resolve as YES if a strategic nuclear weapon is detonated offensively after October 3, 2022 and before January 1, 2023. Otherwise NO.
Resolution details (mostly copied from Metaculus):
Offensively means neither detonations for testing purposes nor peaceful nuclear explosions will count towards ques... | N/A | null | null | |
xgTsMqEmICGjh7qsjKlU | YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2 | CamillePerrin | Camille | 1,705,690,017,928 | 1,705,955,100,000 | Will flight AF 333 from Boston to Paris departing on 2024-01-22 arrive with 30+ minutes delay (YES) | will-flight-af-333-from-boston-to-p-7d0d80681f1d | https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-333-from-boston-to-p-7d0d80681f1d | {
"NO": 92.8673762730498,
"YES": 77.07523412308727
} | 0.213542 | 0.183907 | 90 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 12 | 0 | true | NO | 1,705,995,997,870 | 0.21 | 3 | 1,705,995,998,186 | 1,705,935,398,225 | -1 | [
"flight-delays"
] | YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 333 from Boston (BOS) to Paris (CDG), NO if on time.
Market close time: 2024-01-22 20:25 (UTC)
Scheduled departure: 2024-01-22 - 22:25 (UTC)
14:25 (Los Angeles)
17:25 (New York)
23:25 (Paris)
Scheduled duration: 06:45
Fine print:
Resoluti... | N/A | YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2 | ||
9wm4j7AjFpnJ6zaSqDlH | nGqj7RrqB4Uw8DfT68ahLzK16972 | SEE | SEE | 1,706,805,027,595 | 1,709,276,340,000 | Will Joe Biden still be alive on March 1st, 2024? | will-joe-biden-still-be-alive-on-ma | https://manifold.markets/SEE/will-joe-biden-still-be-alive-on-ma | {
"NO": 7489.506102077302,
"YES": 359.06360819013173
} | 0.997579 | 0.951815 | 450 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 7,385.235085 | 0 | true | YES | 1,709,316,158,930 | 1 | 23 | 1,709,316,159,167 | 1,709,275,449,899 | -1 | [
"the-life-of-biden",
"death-markets",
"us-politics"
] | Continuing my series of one-month markets on Joe Biden's survival.
As usual, I will not bet on my own market. | N/A | nGqj7RrqB4Uw8DfT68ahLzK16972 | ||
8WajmyxW9RgpHQKwepdu | BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2 | Haws | Haws | 1,703,082,315,179 | 1,703,977,200,000 | Will DOT close higher on December 30 than it closed on December 29? | will-dot-close-higher-on-december-3-0295f07fe09d | https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-dot-close-higher-on-december-3-0295f07fe09d | {
"NO": 368.2821875918941,
"YES": 160.38733442077879
} | 0.72 | 0.528271 | 250 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 483.976428 | 0 | true | YES | 1,703,986,820,437 | 0.72 | 11 | 1,703,986,820,784 | 1,703,976,716,639 | 1,703,986,815,808 | [
"crypto-prices",
"hawsbollah",
"sccsq4"
] | Question closes an hour before 12 UTC.
View the live price
Resolves based on Coingecko Historical Data page
Previous Close: $
Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.
DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)
SIMILAR MARKETS
LEADERBOARD STAT... | N/A | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | ||
aleQp9vvxnkBm1YFnUVO | 4xOTMCIOkGesdJft50wVFZFb5IB3 | Tripping | Tripping | 1,676,923,768,697 | 1,678,675,893,841 | Will Angela Bassett win the Oscar for Best Supporting Actress for her role as Queen Ramonda in the movie 'Black Panther: Wakanda Forever' at the 95th Academy Awards? | will-angela-bassett-win-the-oscar-f | https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-angela-bassett-win-the-oscar-f | {
"NO": 17.711843569835764,
"YES": 11400.52269264755
} | 0.00079 | 0.337313 | 230 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 11,394.609343 | 0 | true | NO | 1,678,675,893,841 | 0 | 12 | 1,678,675,885,363 | 1,678,675,884,439 | -1 | [
"movies",
"oscars-2023"
] | Resolves YES if Bassett wins, NO otherwise.
Other Oscars markets:
https://manifold.markets/group/oscars-2023 | N/A | null | ||
d4A7ULDD82VjviuTmsSl | Wo2etMvKRKaOrlEMWUD9liFY5xk2 | Orca | Orcatron | 1,703,281,009,107 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLhML-PPkGeBCMJUgxx90-h3AzhZwuGvkTJjFyB-ROE=s96-c | 1,704,666,600,000 | NFL🏈: Week 18 -- Will the Chicago Bears win their NFL Game against the Green Bay Packers on 01/07? | nfl-week-18-will-the-chicago-bears | https://manifold.markets/Orca/nfl-week-18-will-the-chicago-bears | {
"NO": 181.81377490231,
"YES": 254.34886719747485
} | 0.33282 | 0.411023 | 210 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 514.13922 | 0 | true | NO | 1,704,676,731,437 | 0.33 | 10 | 1,710,206,771,584 | 1,704,666,597,942 | -1 | [
"nfl",
"chicago-bears",
"green-bay-packers"
] | Time of Game not announced as of date of creation of this market.
I will close this market for trading about an hour after KICKOFF. So please place your trades in prior to that!! | N/A | Wo2etMvKRKaOrlEMWUD9liFY5xk2 | |
D8AfXeG0jN2I2lEb8K4h | cgrBqe2O3AU4Dnng7Nc9wuJHLKb2 | jskf | jskf | 1,701,301,264,434 | 1,702,428,959,276 | Will Mirrorbot reach its $300 funding goal on Manifund? | will-mirrorbot-reach-its-funding-go | https://manifold.markets/jskf/will-mirrorbot-reach-its-funding-go | {
"NO": 585.823029982588,
"YES": 36.62243774422609
} | 0.950189 | 0.543904 | 130 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 595 | 0 | true | YES | 1,702,428,959,276 | 0.95 | 5 | 1,702,081,149,001 | 1,702,081,148,889 | 1,701,972,893,669 | [
"manifold-6748e065087e",
"manifund-5e8e6bc749f7",
"manifold-community"
] | I've applied for funding from the Manifold Community Fund to work on @mirrorbot. Will my project reach its funding bar?
Project: https://manifund.org/projects/mirrorbot | N/A | cgrBqe2O3AU4Dnng7Nc9wuJHLKb2 | null | |
zTGVrYU1Ruv1ghAaHsHL | m8lA990CnzTyoyz0pBL9MRlTpjB2 | EltonDuncanIV | Elton Duncan IV | 1,702,067,133,734 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIsJ1W97Uw4NtMKx6SWrr8BPXXwtaCaJ0r0P8DbtfUEXhs=s96-c | 1,702,163,303,464 | Will U Penn President Magill resign or be fired before 2024? | will-u-penn-president-magill-resign | https://manifold.markets/EltonDuncanIV/will-u-penn-president-magill-resign | {
"NO": 1022.4241370552003,
"YES": 51.50662287075295
} | 0.987253 | 0.795992 | 130 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 909 | 0 | true | YES | 1,702,163,303,464 | 0.99 | 6 | 1,702,160,629,605 | 1,702,160,628,442 | 1,702,159,353,418 | [
"us-politics"
] | Numerous college presidents are facing criticism about their responses to antisemitism on their campuses. But none more than University of Pennsylvania President Liz Magill. | N/A | m8lA990CnzTyoyz0pBL9MRlTpjB2 | |
8uASiydvbNbVQ5jT0X2X | 8HDws7JfX9hgphuXyPxYJ1INpCq1 | wingman_web3 | Wingman | 1,693,416,692,876 | 1,693,478,700,000 | Will FR flight 3918 from London to Palermo on 2023-08-31 arrive on-time (YES) or with delay >= 30 mins (NO)? | will-fr-flight-3918-from-london-to | https://manifold.markets/wingman_web3/will-fr-flight-3918-from-london-to | {
"NO": 92.1368385889375,
"YES": 112.01800530276417
} | 0.73 | 0.766742 | 130 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 225.751641 | 0 | true | NO | 1,693,505,651,598 | 0.73 | 7 | 1,693,458,081,473 | 1,693,458,080,260 | -1 | [] | Track flight arrival here: https://tinyurl.com/yysmreyz | N/A | null | null | |
jL0o2kxzlX1qskXpoSv2 | BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2 | Haws | Haws | 1,693,340,106,592 | 1,693,438,223,502 | Will the TSX close higher on August 30 than it did on August 29? | will-the-tsx-close-higher-on-august-3ab8313c4264 | https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-the-tsx-close-higher-on-august-3ab8313c4264 | {
"NO": 2481.0155007725234,
"YES": 94.59788382463545
} | 0.990365 | 0.796721 | 250 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 2,985.233504 | 0 | true | YES | 1,693,438,261,153 | 0.99 | 11 | 1,693,438,252,678 | 1,693,437,267,622 | 1,693,438,252,358 | [
"-sircryptomind-crypto-stock"
] | Question closes at 2pm EST, the Toronto Stock Exchange closes at 4pm EST.
Resolves based on Google Finance reporting: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/OSPTX:INDEXTSI
Trading in this market counts towards the ▲ SirCryptomind ▲ Crypto & Stock ▲ leaderboard.
Q3 2023 (July/August/September)
Prizes for those who ... | N/A | null | null | |
sGVOjWd9sHZDpSmLn0kV | 1S7jGo8r1kSoOiQDY8dLWy62o7l2 | Princeps | Princeps | 1,698,075,967,073 | 1,714,651,296,894 | Will the Canadian Liberal party’s supply-and-confidence agreement with the NDP still be in place after Budget 2024? | will-the-canadian-liberal-partys-su | https://manifold.markets/Princeps/will-the-canadian-liberal-partys-su | {
"NO": 188.14463687372495,
"YES": 126.88263768795768
} | 0.717658 | 0.631562 | 150 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 56 | 0 | true | YES | 1,714,651,296,894 | 0.72 | 5 | 1,714,651,333,418 | 1,714,317,548,949 | 1,714,651,332,161 | [
"politics-default",
"canada",
"canadian-politics"
] | The NDP has repeatedly threatened to pull out of their supply-and-confidence agreement with the Liberal party. Will this agreement still be in effect after Budget 2024 passes Parliament?
Note that an election does not necessarily need to be called for this question to resolve to YES. For example, one party could pull... | N/A | 1S7jGo8r1kSoOiQDY8dLWy62o7l2 | ||
8fJNiIL9PdVhQoESN2dm | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | KeenenW | Keenen W | 1,712,272,519,952 | 1,712,345,400,000 | Will Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) close higher Apr 5 than Apr 4? | will-apple-nasdaq-aapl-close-higher-b18bd1c46b39 | https://manifold.markets/KeenenW/will-apple-nasdaq-aapl-close-higher-b18bd1c46b39 | {
"NO": 940.7745172552706,
"YES": 168.42927127014863
} | 0.93 | 0.704017 | 300 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 878.507549 | 0 | true | YES | 1,712,354,383,905 | 0.93 | 11 | 1,712,345,400,000 | 1,712,338,892,567 | -1 | [
"tech-stocks",
"aapl",
"apple",
"stocks",
"ai-stocks",
"nasdaq"
] | Apple Inc - Daily Dashboard
Resolves according to Nasdaq Close Price
AAPL closes at 4pm ET
This market closes at 3:30pm ET
Initial close price is preliminary, this market is resolved once it's settled.
Resolves YES if AAPL closes higher Apr 5 than Apr 4
Resolves NO if AAPL closes lower or flat
I DO NOT PARTICIPA... | N/A | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | null | |
fZJa8vi9hA4bzjyNydl9 | lER4O8rdmaWMADfeGtrX9AnRQr33 | brp | Bjorn | 1,673,408,140,246 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxtYDlRw1cr-LgN0-dvK5JVutQ9Uj0nUQlh6Ykz1A=s96-c | 1,690,934,340,000 | Will a non-Covid, non-Monkeypox infectious disease be the top news item in BBC Health on August 1, 2023? | will-a-noncovid-nonmonkeypox-infect-5354dc8578af | https://manifold.markets/brp/will-a-noncovid-nonmonkeypox-infect-5354dc8578af | {
"NO": 761.1881643402876,
"YES": 4272.400867232624
} | 0.042061 | 0.197718 | 1,130 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 5,884.395964 | 0 | true | NO | 1,690,988,005,610 | 0.04 | 57 | 1,690,929,147,868 | 1,690,929,147,745 | 1,690,917,678,922 | [
"health"
] | To resolve with a load of bbc.com/news/health.
In order to maintain trust in market resolution, I will not trade in this market. | N/A | null | |
KzfzIV8F7BGnsFMTOpXz | hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2 | AmmonLam | Ammon Lam | 1,707,190,976,073 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c | 1,710,076,468,821 | Will any of the videos uploaded to Lex Fridman's YouTube channel in Mar 2024 surpass 300k views? | will-any-of-the-videos-uploaded-to-c26e1fc849a3 | https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-any-of-the-videos-uploaded-to-c26e1fc849a3 | {
"NO": 51421.57738248365,
"YES": 49.238060775118356
} | 0.9998 | 0.827022 | 190 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 53,610.101944 | 0 | true | YES | 1,710,076,468,821 | 1 | 9 | 1,710,076,471,158 | 1,710,076,463,470 | -1 | [
"youtube",
"lex-fridman"
] | Resolution base on the video view counts on Lex Fridman's youtube channel AT THE END OF THE MONTH
https://www.youtube.com/@lexfridman/videos
Resolves YES if one of the video uploaded to Lex Fridman's YouTube channel in Mar 2024 received over 300k views at the end of the month
(Go to the individual video page to get ... | N/A | hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2 | |
aE6yx91qHp97GirxFmlF | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | strutheo | chris (strutheo) | 1,701,707,691,534 | 1,711,117,815,363 | The poodle was one of the AKC's top 5 most popular dog breeds in 2021 and 2022. Will it still be for 2023? | the-poodle-was-one-of-the-akcs-top | https://manifold.markets/strutheo/the-poodle-was-one-of-the-akcs-top | {
"NO": 1287.8441733224545,
"YES": 56.21773815635083
} | 0.969684 | 0.582687 | 210 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,109.780359 | 0 | true | YES | 1,711,117,815,363 | 0.97 | 11 | 1,711,117,815,363 | 1,711,117,797,340 | -1 | [
"dogs-cats",
"united-states",
"animals",
"culture-default",
"dog-markets"
] | Info: https://www.akc.org/most-popular-breeds/ | N/A | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | ||
SjBJopn3bwQ8Z2pL4D2E | BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2 | Haws | Haws | 1,702,921,663,354 | 1,703,026,800,000 | Will DOT close higher on December 19 than it closed on December 18? | will-dot-close-higher-on-december-1-a803ef3cf8de | https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-dot-close-higher-on-december-1-a803ef3cf8de | {
"NO": 100.57479717737613,
"YES": 868.6315889861767
} | 0.055289 | 0.33575 | 230 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 881.457566 | 0 | true | NO | 1,703,035,279,267 | 0.06 | 10 | 1,703,035,270,939 | 1,703,025,587,060 | 1,703,035,270,207 | [
"economics-default",
"hawsbollah",
"crypto-prices",
"sccsq4"
] | Question closes an hour before 12 UTC.
View the live price
Resolves based on Coingecko Historical Data page
Previous Close: $6.87
Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.
DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)
SIMILAR MARKETS
LEADERBOARD ... | N/A | BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2 | ||
KcfmuWlSF1r8RPuBvNfY | uglwf3YKOZNGjjEXKc5HampOFRE2 | SirSalty | David Chee | 1,681,854,068,438 | 1,699,300,079,051 | Will I push a change that is destructive to Manifold Markets 2023? | will-i-push-a-change-that-is-destru | https://manifold.markets/SirSalty/will-i-push-a-change-that-is-destru | {
"NO": 14168.081106743455,
"YES": 93.46801300590269
} | 0.993812 | 0.514428 | 1,330 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 83,289.528263 | 0 | true | YES | 1,699,300,079,051 | 0.99 | 87 | 1,699,405,679,727 | 1,699,299,061,424 | 1,699,405,677,983 | [
"chatgpt",
"manifold-6748e065087e"
] | I've recently started coding with the help of GPT. I have essentially 0 background in programming aside from 3 months of using python to do trivial plotting in a biology course a few years ago.
That being said, I have started to become more familiar with a lot of technical terms due to being surrounded by a team of SW... | N/A | null | ||
3cyeuYPvpIbdnD5noGB3 | zPHQcxyXADVDAp0Km9ZSYdj2ti03 | CquilPromp | Cquil Promp | 1,693,926,836,657 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtduBMX-RGqTEB45Q03dKPvo7uMLGtOUNTXlg5R5gv9k4Q=s96-c | 1,693,940,400,000 | Will the temperature in Central Park September 5th at 3:51pm be in the 83-85° range? | will-the-temperature-in-central-par-30ce8149d86c | https://manifold.markets/CquilPromp/will-the-temperature-in-central-par-30ce8149d86c | {
"NO": 184.51391034766513,
"YES": 420.93838997064523
} | 0.063474 | 0.133914 | 230 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 642.203059 | 0 | true | NO | 1,693,952,380,870 | 0.06 | 10 | 1,693,944,613,092 | 1,693,937,675,701 | 1,693,944,612,618 | [
"climate",
"weather",
"new-york"
] | Will the air temperature in Central Park, New York, be in the 83-85° range at 3:51pm (15:51) on Sept 5, 2023 ?
Question closes 3:00pm ET
Resolves according to:
https://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KNYC.html
| N/A | null | null |
sOt10oViKCGsTNPdaOY7 | GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1 | RemNi | RemNi | 1,713,050,853,467 | 1,717,319,322,361 | Will Iran detonate a nuclear weapon before Jun 2024? | will-iran-detonate-a-nuclear-weapon-4751ee3f64a2 | https://manifold.markets/RemNi/will-iran-detonate-a-nuclear-weapon-4751ee3f64a2 | {
"NO": 849.3604192533206,
"YES": 4678.058602384084
} | 0.010793 | 0.056685 | 1,000 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 3,729.502982 | 0 | true | NO | 1,717,319,322,361 | 0.01 | 14 | 1,717,319,322,361 | 1,716,473,269,552 | -1 | [
"nuclear-risk",
"middle-east",
"iran"
] | Resolves as YES if Iran has detonated a nuclear device by June 1st 2024
Questions with the same criteria:
@/RemNi/will-iran-detonate-a-nuclear-weapon-b6e20bc9f777
@/RemNi/will-iran-detonate-a-nuclear-weapon-4751ee3f64a2 (this question)
@/RemNi/will-iran-detonate-a-nuclear-weapon-54454f6bc6fa
@/RemNi/will-iran-de... | N/A | GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1 | ||
rHk3cMs2N6UYu1vWWG0s | VSjqA9XwaVWYhuEkLSpFMOsjbkY2 | daniel | Daniel | 1,673,613,487,055 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp6BUIjYnmW6EiqrrA4hT1XZlEHaS15rTBLx8sXC-g=s96-c | 1,676,381,400,000 | Will inflation in the US be between 5-6% in January 2023? | will-inflation-in-the-us-be-between | https://manifold.markets/daniel/will-inflation-in-the-us-be-between | {
"NO": 367.4335848079785,
"YES": 290.29483332147475
} | 0.39 | 0.335601 | 370 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 2,410.514937 | 0 | true | NO | 1,676,382,882,549 | 0.39 | 18 | 1,676,381,903,652 | 1,676,380,408,568 | 1,676,381,899,977 | [
"global-macro",
"inflation",
"economics-default",
"finance"
] | YES if CPI-U is in the interval [295.206, 298.016] at next publication. Market can be used to arb related markets below.
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUUR0000SA0
Related markets:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/Daniel1901/will-inflation-stay-above-60-in-jan)(https://manifold.markets/embed/Daniel1901/will-inflati... | N/A | null | null |
Lh5dhEtStAREe7YG6VB5 | BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2 | Haws | Haws | 1,700,258,551,991 | 1,700,506,800,000 | Will the TSX close higher on November 20 than it did on November 17? | will-the-tsx-close-higher-on-novemb-4484657eef31 | https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-the-tsx-close-higher-on-novemb-4484657eef31 | {
"NO": 459.9181077820108,
"YES": 108.77445284932318
} | 0.89 | 0.656778 | 190 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 577.557152 | 0 | true | YES | 1,700,518,590,733 | 0.89 | 11 | 1,700,518,587,478 | 1,700,506,528,943 | 1,700,518,586,791 | [
"economics-default",
"sccsq4",
"hawsbollah",
"stocks",
"finance"
] | Question closes at 2pm EST, the Toronto Stock Exchange closes at 4pm EST.
Resolves based on Google Finance reporting: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/OSPTX:INDEXTSI
Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.
DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info,... | N/A | null | null | |
aInCujKBxFjldG9s59Cq | QPw915xrcfcPZ6Q14V5J3I3twP33 | ianminds | ianminds | 1,693,859,120,573 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJz4sOwgc--JVmwpCvgc2lcYgi17CQkkmgBdXCiK=s96-c | 1,697,839,525,944 | Will Vincent Van Quickenborne resign as Minister of Justice of Belgium? | will-vincent-van-quickenborne-resig | https://manifold.markets/ianminds/will-vincent-van-quickenborne-resig | {
"NO": 1501.7997660564731,
"YES": 3.061869753469636
} | 0.997253 | 0.425382 | 110 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,908.958609 | 0 | true | YES | 1,697,839,525,944 | 1 | 5 | 1,697,839,516,132 | 1,697,839,515,809 | 1,697,827,647,778 | [
"belgian-politics",
"politics-default"
] | A little context:
https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/en/2023/09/05/justice-minister-says-he-acted-after-guests-at-his-home-urinated/
https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/en/2023/09/05/justice-minister-called-to-give-explanation-to-mps-about-urinati/
Clarification:
Resolves YES if he resigns at any time during his term (including when ... | N/A | null | null |
0UZHlbTZevvwlUKuLVuG | CrPGjKJkCMd2MxE2spQ6aWMJh2P2 | oh | Sundry | 1,699,197,533,609 | 1,712,980,740,000 | Will Central Park, NYC get more than 25 inches of snowfall this winter? | will-central-park-nyc-get-more-than | https://manifold.markets/oh/will-central-park-nyc-get-more-than | {
"NO": 68.01791461096393,
"YES": 3099.133252550728
} | 0.007925 | 0.266853 | 230 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 2,997.073441 | 0 | true | NO | 1,713,252,977,031 | 0.01 | 14 | 1,714,334,740,419 | 1,712,962,148,630 | 1,714,334,738,903 | [
"new-york",
"weather",
"nyc"
] | Resolves as soon it gets at least 25in, otherwise resolves NO in April. Ugly graph for your convenience:
[image] | N/A | EJQOCF3MfLTFYbhiKncrNefQDBz1 | null | |
TiHyABqxKVFxkg9iY24d | CoeMNUk0b7WouGke4R8dCMXg7Ox2 | Carrotcake | Supreme Carrot | 1,708,460,015,794 | 1,713,058,532,652 | Will Aljamain Sterling beat Calvin Kattar at UFC 300? | will-aljamain-sterling-beat-calvin | https://manifold.markets/Carrotcake/will-aljamain-sterling-beat-calvin | {
"NO": 2173.4409631079434,
"YES": 26.579026681822462
} | 0.99 | 0.547649 | 230 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 2,721.812964 | 0 | true | YES | 1,713,058,532,652 | 0.99 | 10 | 1,713,058,532,652 | 1,713,058,156,732 | 1,713,058,127,682 | [
"ufc-300",
"mma-mixed-martial-arts",
"fighting",
"combat-sports"
] | •This market will resolve in a YES if Aljamain Sterling wins the fight.
•A draw will resolve in a NO.
•A defeat of Aljamain Sterling will result in a NO.
•A disqualification of Aljamain Sterling will be considered a loss.
• The market will resolve NO if the fight gets cancelled
• The market will resolve in a YE... | N/A | CoeMNUk0b7WouGke4R8dCMXg7Ox2 | ||
2HG9hYxaROScIwuUKwD9 | 4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2 | BTE | Brian T. Edwards | 1,668,620,970,878 | 1,708,828,287,938 | Will Trump win the South Carolina Primary? | will-trump-win-the-north-carolina-p | https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-trump-win-the-north-carolina-p | {
"NO": 23291.341150102377,
"YES": 227.43828184387664
} | 0.997805 | 0.816172 | 870 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 32,880.335952 | 0 | true | YES | 1,708,828,287,938 | 1 | 48 | 1,708,828,288,567 | 1,708,821,534,762 | 1,708,823,944,009 | [
"us-politics",
"2024-gop-primaries",
"magaland",
"donald-trump"
] | Nov 16, 1:05pm: Will Trump win the North Carolina Primary? → Will Trump win the Sorth Carolina Primary?
Nov 16, 1:06pm: Will Trump win the Sorth Carolina Primary? → Will Trump win the South Carolina Primary? | N/A | 4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2 | ||
WBHwymLuPnrFdooJUwhM | N7Cto6nExlWhEEvaTTkU3LbaLZV2 | BigChungus | Big Chungus | 1,664,225,726,502 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AItbvml980-A_7MMgiiaLKrtjU9wpNeszPqd-_ea2-Dm=s96-c | 1,664,780,340,000 | Will Anthony Fantano rate Bladee's next album Spiderr a 6 or higher? | will-anthony-fantano-rate-bladees-n | https://manifold.markets/BigChungus/will-anthony-fantano-rate-bladees-n | {
"NO": 249.19136877222155,
"YES": 40.129800840496614
} | 0.861297 | 0.5 | 100 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 164.528006 | 0 | true | YES | 1,665,275,654,860 | 0.861297 | 5 | 1,673,758,203,508 | 1,664,761,901,473 | 1,673,758,200,339 | [
"music-f213cbf1eab5"
] | Spiderr will be released September 30. The market closes October 2. I will resolve it once Anthony Fantano drops a rating or N/A if he doesn't rate it within a few weeks. Hopefully this gives people a chance to bet only on their own impression of the album.
Single from the album that he shared: https://www.youtube.co... | N/A | null | null |
xURuWchEqhLUdabHuWDn | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | SirCryptomind | SirCryptomind | 1,700,416,919,263 | 1,702,580,400,000 | Will the Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) close higher on Thu. December 14th than it closed on Wed. December 13th? {DAILY} | will-the-nasdaq-composite-ixic-clos-d1e3e76095c8 | https://manifold.markets/SirCryptomind/will-the-nasdaq-composite-ixic-clos-d1e3e76095c8 | {
"NO": 101.90597614301824,
"YES": 476.96915109531426
} | 0.250418 | 0.60993 | 290 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 766.474874 | 0 | true | YES | 1,702,595,806,114 | 0.25 | 13 | 1,702,595,803,266 | 1,702,580,028,847 | 1,702,595,799,647 | [
"sccsq4",
"stocks",
"economics-default",
"finance"
] | Nasdaq Composite (IXIC)
Nasdaq closes at 4pm ET (9pm UTC)
Predictions close at 2pm ET (7pm UTC)
Resolves YES or NO ; N/A May Occur At My Discretion If Markets Crash
Resolves NO If Closes Flat (Same close price as prior day)
Resolves according to the display at *Google Finance at the end of the day.
Previous Close... | N/A | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | null | |
buCpbHKZUkDAqrywHcYT | acvO0NAsghTTgGjnsdwt94O44OT2 | vluzko | Vincent Luczkow | 1,664,845,037,619 | 1,677,657,600,000 | Will any new proof about the safety of transferring RL agents from one environment to another be published by March 2023? | will-any-new-proof-about-the-safety-e539a3b0b971 | https://manifold.markets/vluzko/will-any-new-proof-about-the-safety-e539a3b0b971 | {
"NO": 159.56034191490025,
"YES": 157.41575565066634
} | 0.500613 | 0.49723 | 160 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 365.644878 | 0 | true | YES | 1,692,737,740,154 | 0.5 | 9 | 1,692,737,737,994 | 1,677,646,325,070 | 1,692,737,735,910 | [
"technical-ai-timelines",
"technical-ai-safety",
"ai-alignment"
] | "Published" means in some kind of peer-reviewed outlet, OR by some established research group in whatever outlet they use, OR at my discretion. This rule is here to save me from checking someone's 100 page wordpress proof claiming to solve alignment, not because I care about the proof going through proper academic chan... | N/A | null | null | |
yqdtmlYpCttjk4c8PeS0 | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | SirCryptomind | SirCryptomind | 1,699,834,526,274 | 1,703,272,500,000 | Will the VIX (INDEXCBOE: VIX) close higher on December 22nd than it closed on December 15th? {WEEKLY} | will-the-vix-indexcboe-vix-close-hi-13274207f09c | https://manifold.markets/SirCryptomind/will-the-vix-indexcboe-vix-close-hi-13274207f09c | {
"NO": 1066.921541857309,
"YES": 205.57316737122503
} | 0.92 | 0.689036 | 370 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,243.452464 | 0 | true | YES | 1,703,284,205,877 | 0.92 | 20 | 1,703,284,196,824 | 1,703,272,123,751 | 1,703,284,196,125 | [
"sccsq4",
"vix",
"cboe"
] | VIX (INDEXCBOE: VIX)
VIX closes at 4pm ET (9pm UTC) and reports on an up to hour delay.
Predictions close at 215pm (715pm UTC)
Resolves YES or NO ; N/A May Occur At My Discretion If Markets Crash
Resolves NO If Closes Flat (Same close price as prior day)
Resolves according to the display at *Google Finance at the ... | N/A | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | null | |
Ccu05FLJp8Vswdo7GJN9 | ZjyCGOOFwnQzbPvO0Jq8CIEz4Zq1 | Alana | Alana | 1,670,232,725,914 | 1,704,095,940,000 | Anthropic publicly commits to actively monitor and look for evidence of deceptive alignment in their models by the end of 2023 | anthropic-publicly-commits-to-activ | https://manifold.markets/Alana/anthropic-publicly-commits-to-activ | {
"NO": 114.08091790334531,
"YES": 3194.271603256217
} | 0.020753 | 0.37241 | 470 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 3,854.625489 | 0 | true | NO | 1,704,098,472,702 | 0.02 | 24 | 1,704,098,473,031 | 1,704,091,925,511 | 1,703,153,625,319 | [
"ai-alignment",
"new-years-resolutions-2024"
] | See Evan Hubinger's post:
https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/Km9sHjHTsBdbgwKyi/monitoring-for-deceptive-alignment
Close date updated to 2025-12-31 3:59 pm
Close date updated to 2025-12-31 11:59 pm
Dec 5, 1:32am: Anthropic publicly commits to actively monitor and look for evidence of deceptive alignment in their... | N/A | ZjyCGOOFwnQzbPvO0Jq8CIEz4Zq1 | ||
jfRf9nOXi8brd48Z7T5p | YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2 | CamillePerrin | Camille | 1,703,678,660,686 | 1,703,806,200,000 | Will flight DL 224 from Boston to Paris departing on 2023-12-29 arrive with 30+ minute delay (YES) | will-flight-dl-224-from-boston-to-p-4ba47e3618d1 | https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-dl-224-from-boston-to-p-4ba47e3618d1 | {
"NO": 50,
"YES": 50
} | 0.066667 | 0.066667 | 50 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0 | true | NO | 1,703,955,949,705 | 0.07 | 0 | 1,703,955,949,967 | 1,703,678,665,836 | -1 | [
"flight-delays"
] | YES on arrival delay of flight Delta Air Lines DL 224 from Boston (BOS) to Paris (CDG), NO if on time.
Market close time: 2023-12-28 23:30 (UTC)
Scheduled departure: 2023-12-29 - 01:30 (UTC)
17:30 (Los Angeles)
20:30 (New York)
02:30 (Paris)
Scheduled duration: 07:00
Fine print:
Res... | N/A | YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2 | ||
OqmUIx9yacUn22M61Nxn | zgCIqq8AmRUYVu6AdQ9vVEJN8On1 | _deleted_ | ~deleted~ | 1,700,497,171,865 | 1,701,308,396,942 | Will Emmett Shear, the interim CEO of OpenAI, no longer be in this position within a month? | will-emmett-shear-the-interim-ceo-o | https://manifold.markets/_deleted_/will-emmett-shear-the-interim-ceo-o | {
"NO": 14334.72596539194,
"YES": 88.97811732165974
} | 0.998274 | 0.782133 | 390 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 15,646.982551 | 0 | true | YES | 1,701,308,396,942 | 0.99 | 22 | 1,710,206,910,293 | 1,701,308,391,382 | 1,701,308,344,554 | [
"openai",
"openai-crisis"
] | within a month = 30 days from when he was appointed CEO of OpenAI.
He says
I have a three point plan for the next 30 days: -
Hire an independent investigator to dig into the entire process leading up to this point and generate a full report.
Continue to speak to as many of our employees, partners, investors, and ... | N/A | null | null | |
KgHETkYIwX02NXYvvipH | H8mXkmJcikfoYF0rQQ83qsHEWRn1 | MP | MP | 1,677,501,648,753 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMP%2FJMyU-Pb-y4.51?alt=media&token=445f6754-d875-41a9-ad73-c272a1e866bf | 1,701,866,134,506 | Will the hike cycle that begun in 2022 have a 50bps rate hike in 2023 or 2024? | will-the-hike-cycle-that-begun-in-2 | https://manifold.markets/MP/will-the-hike-cycle-that-begun-in-2 | {
"NO": 257.0860933558913,
"YES": 2127.8548740991264
} | 0.036357 | 0.237965 | 500 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 16,896.18065 | 0 | true | NO | 1,701,866,134,506 | 0.04 | 19 | 1,701,866,123,495 | 1,694,031,643,338 | 1,701,866,121,711 | [
"federal-reserve",
"economics-default",
"global-macro"
] | This market resolves to no by Dec 31st 2024 or when the Fed either cut rates or spends 90 days not hiking.
This market resolves to YES if they hike by 50bps in a meeting. I will sum special meetings if necessary (a special meeting + a regular one with 25bps each). | N/A | null | |
G6y1zKaYixsXsNbLwfFJ | mezmUpPpyxarKrHxAs0k07Y1bVc2 | StopPunting | Stop Punting | 1,701,727,628,930 | 1,703,995,873,983 | Will Manifold correctly predict the The Destiny Awards 2023 (TDA2023) - Frenemy of the year? | will-manifold-correctly-predict-the-a8bd6f989316 | https://manifold.markets/StopPunting/will-manifold-correctly-predict-the-a8bd6f989316 | {
"NO": 47.77144037658888,
"YES": 185.3448004327331
} | 0.16 | 0.424962 | 110 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 575.004352 | 0 | true | NO | 1,703,995,873,983 | 0.16 | 4 | 1,703,996,044,627 | 1,703,994,964,931 | 1,703,996,043,930 | [
"debate",
"the-destiny-awards-2023-e70b6f70a125",
"the-destiny-awards-2023",
"destinygg",
"new-years-resolutions-2024"
] | Using this market for reference as it has the most traders as of creating this question:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/SkepticIC/who-will-be-destinys-frenemy-of-the)Let me know if anybody has an issue with using that Market instead of another.
This will be resolved by looking at what the final percentages are befor... | N/A | mezmUpPpyxarKrHxAs0k07Y1bVc2 | ||
KzbRvMuwCoKYvG2KEuE0 | hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2 | AmmonLam | Ammon Lam | 1,705,631,010,082 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c | 1,712,980,789,950 | Will the S&P 500 Index close higher on Apr 12, 2024 compared to the previous trading day? | will-the-sp-500-index-close-higher-3d7ea3987fe5 | https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-the-sp-500-index-close-higher-3d7ea3987fe5 | {
"NO": 29.35277618602845,
"YES": 2437.8195938380336
} | 0.01 | 0.456201 | 230 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 3,003.010099 | 0 | true | NO | 1,713,037,101,465 | 0.01 | 11 | 1,712,980,789,950 | 1,712,950,885,945 | -1 | [] | Resolves to Yes if the S&P 500 Index close higher on Apr 12, 2024 compared to the previous trading day.
Resolves to No otherwise.
Resolution base on Yahoo! Finance Historical Data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/history?p=%5ESPX | N/A | hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2 | |
dgVAQExp1OGqlokv4CID | 9GSWaFCPsaguZwima6TxzyFWup13 | johnleoks | johnleoks | 1,678,925,977,779 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1fEWiQZNBclZJIqG3iTleWTsdH5ReWs20Omf7ktA=s96-c | 1,679,508,647,520 | Will Vaush's video "Some Teachers Aren't Allowed To Say If Slavery Is Bad Or Not" reach 50k views by 3/22 9 A.M. PST? | will-vaushs-video-some-teachers-are | https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/will-vaushs-video-some-teachers-are | {
"NO": 10645,
"YES": 14.817893126182753
} | 0.999761 | 0.853242 | 70 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 10,575 | 0 | true | YES | 1,679,508,647,520 | 1 | 2 | 1,679,508,644,411 | 1,679,508,644,250 | -1 | [
"vaush",
"us-politics",
"destinygg"
] | https://youtu.be/Udp31GpJWzI
If no screenshots are posted showing the viewcount of this video after the market has closed, then as the market creator, I will at my earliest convenience (since I can't always be there at time of closing) look at the current viewcount number and use that figure to determine how the marke... | N/A | null | |
5KCs7RicEYblsWAsxfo4 | fjH3IfE5jYRePCRM08KptMMwiKu1 | ForexDude | Forex Dude | 1,686,393,002,986 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtexf-1VDsOLJgffV39h2gmfns88xkHq1R8Pn3gq=s96-c | 1,687,046,340,000 | Will Real Clear Politics RCP have Trump +2 or more over Biden by Jun 17th EOD | will-real-clear-politics-rcp-have-t | https://manifold.markets/ForexDude/will-real-clear-politics-rcp-have-t | {
"NO": 328.30089821740387,
"YES": 68.94317761542331
} | 0.885525 | 0.618969 | 150 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 440.078414 | 0 | true | YES | 1,687,046,620,377 | 0.89 | 8 | 1,687,047,056,839 | 1,687,045,096,791 | 1,687,047,053,261 | [] | General Election Matchup
This will resolve to Yes if RCP resolves to +2 or more for Trump over Joe Biden by June 17th, EOD (24:00 Eastern Time) in the general election matchup for Trump vrs Biden.
As of June 10th, it was +1.8 for Trump over Joe Biden.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/
[link preview] | N/A | null | |
O2y8GFiKmjpwA47tD4i0 | NNse8ZFTtZaZGHPIgVZMmYK0noz1 | array_wake | array_wake | 1,701,881,499,058 | 1,707,402,086,818 | Will Google Gemini(Ultra) be released before April 1, 2024? | will-google-geminiultra-be-released | https://manifold.markets/array_wake/will-google-geminiultra-be-released | {
"NO": 7843.128235882982,
"YES": 335.9977770641071
} | 0.995067 | 0.896279 | 510 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 7,883 | 0 | true | YES | 1,707,402,086,818 | 1 | 21 | 1,707,402,088,162 | 1,707,401,104,404 | 1,707,402,080,147 | [
"google-ef2cf716540e",
"google-gemini"
] | -The model should be publicly available in some form(integration with bard would be reasonable).This is the condition under which I will resolve the market to YES.
-If you have any other suggestions on what to add to this to make the market more reasonable,then please comment
-If real world throws a curveball so inte... | N/A | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | ||
QwFbyrYPINhdEkMdl9kO | VutNSM1pulf0iLjFlNUtgVLKUzr2 | meh | mjh | 1,707,593,756,864 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fmeh%2F-FCJ_xuzNs.59?alt=media&token=6f5d7b9a-38c0-4956-b7fc-6f1795ead647 | 1,716,045,832,227 | Will Bayer Leverkusen complete the 2023-24 Bundesliga season unbeaten? | will-bayer-leverkusen-complete-the | https://manifold.markets/meh/will-bayer-leverkusen-complete-the | {
"NO": 7262.0873102174655,
"YES": 176.32203362953584
} | 0.98044 | 0.548942 | 1,000 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 24,273.629021 | 0 | true | YES | 1,716,045,832,227 | 0.98 | 67 | 1,716,045,832,227 | 1,716,045,618,877 | 1,716,045,742,507 | [
"soccer",
"bundesliga-c6b3a5db36d2",
"sports-default"
] | Resolves NO if Bayer Leverkusen loses to any team in any Bundesliga matches for the remainder of the 2023-2024 season. Resolves YES otherwise.
Domestic cup match losses or Europa League losses are not contemplated by this question. | N/A | VutNSM1pulf0iLjFlNUtgVLKUzr2 | |
uNQzy4gbZKaS86Eitb0F | rehzwDqU0MYBPeNuROMa0NNCbax1 | thesash | Sash Catanzarite | 1,694,365,711,388 | 1,704,095,940,000 | Will more acres burn during the 2023 California wildfire season than burned in 2022? | will-more-acres-burn-during-the-202 | https://manifold.markets/thesash/will-more-acres-burn-during-the-202 | {
"NO": 302.2242797828428,
"YES": 5188.424386029328
} | 0.039189 | 0.41184 | 1,040 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 17,823.871846 | 0 | true | NO | 1,704,581,686,677 | 0.04 | 65 | 1,704,581,687,026 | 1,704,093,545,747 | 1,704,581,678,631 | [
"us-wildfires",
"california",
"climate",
"new-years-resolutions-2024"
] | 2022: 331,360 acres burned according to
https://www.fire.ca.gov/incidents/2022
[link preview] | N/A | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | null | |
kj5T1xnQCDqeP5etOHef | qytaXO6YY0Q5Tj870GzuZtp3VW03 | BaryLevy | Bary Levy | 1,690,228,968,396 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxbcwWMs55-wIceMJtEvxpuu3xTCVXg4cI9Ev6UrxIA=s96-c | 1,693,601,940,000 | Will an Israeli protester be killed by police forces before September 1? | will-an-israeli-protester-be-killed | https://manifold.markets/BaryLevy/will-an-israeli-protester-be-killed | {
"NO": 550.1035212685953,
"YES": 4691.087273233326
} | 0.034188 | 0.231867 | 950 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 5,790.248493 | 0 | true | NO | 1,693,679,110,258 | 0.03 | 49 | 1,693,656,039,995 | 1,693,595,748,700 | 1,693,656,039,640 | [
"protest-477e21b09291",
"violence",
"israel",
"israeli-politics"
] | This question resolves to Yes if an Israeli protester, in any protest in the country, is confirmed to be killed because of actions taken by police forces, or related to injury caused by the police, before September 1st 2023.
for the sake of this market, an Israeli protester is an Israeli citizen, Jewish or not, partic... | N/A | null | null |
DiIiDHhbJmmOoioX9AL2 | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | KeenenW | Keenen W | 1,707,543,227,629 | 1,707,687,000,000 | 🏒Will the St. Louis Blues beat Montreal Canadiens on Feb 11? | will-the-st-louis-blues-beat-montre | https://manifold.markets/KeenenW/will-the-st-louis-blues-beat-montre | {
"NO": 9518.81260726488,
"YES": 159.05014184949826
} | 0.997254 | 0.858539 | 410 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 9,439.145331 | 0 | true | YES | 1,707,719,587,128 | 1 | 20 | 1,707,719,587,606 | 1,707,686,292,676 | 1,707,719,578,579 | [
"st-louis-blues",
"montreal-canadiens",
"nhl",
"fun",
"sports-betting",
"technology-default",
"yuna-league-beta",
"sports-default",
"entertainment",
"hockey"
] | St. Louis Blues vs Montreal Canadiens @12pm CST
Resolves YES or NO .
Resolves Yes if St. Louis Blues win.
Hockey games don't tie. Shootout is to the death.
I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE
Market Inspired by Haws | N/A | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | ||
ReY9r7w7iQLw1U4Yz2ll | EB38gVKAlYQHulWNFyZ7pnyT7Um1 | HelenD | Helen D | 1,696,627,701,441 | 1,696,730,400,000 | Will Philadelphia Phillies beat Atlanta Braves ⚾️ 10/7/2023? | will-philadelphia-phillies-beat-atl | https://manifold.markets/HelenD/will-philadelphia-phillies-beat-atl | {
"NO": 1937.050550135827,
"YES": 73.51965832414825
} | 0.994622 | 0.875312 | 190 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 2,870.051952 | 0 | true | YES | 1,696,745,945,800 | 0.99 | 8 | 1,696,728,165,604 | 1,696,728,165,314 | 1,696,720,655,723 | [
"mlb",
"baseball",
"sports-default"
] | Game Oct 7 @ATL 6:07PM Eastern Time | N/A | null | null | |
plibnZ8lIAg0asygxq3L | HhZi7R3RRHWeS5tRvomftREwRWf2 | breck | breck | 1,699,318,771,970 | 1,712,602,380,000 | Will the weather be “Mostly Cloudy” or worse over Dallas, Texas, during Great American Eclipse? | will-the-weather-be-mostly-cloudy-o | https://manifold.markets/breck/will-the-weather-be-mostly-cloudy-o | {
"NO": 309.14047637178174,
"YES": 403.532719574248
} | 0.626022 | 0.686036 | 410 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,806.923621 | 0 | true | NO | 1,712,604,344,679 | 0.63 | 25 | 1,712,605,349,020 | 1,712,600,506,089 | 1,712,605,348,184 | [
"eclipse",
"texas",
"meteorology"
] | Resolves YES if Dallas Love Field reports "Mostly Cloudy" or worse conditions during the April 8, 2024 eclipse.
Official conditions: https://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KDAL.html
See definitions here: https://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/189/
[link preview] | N/A | HhZi7R3RRHWeS5tRvomftREwRWf2 | null | |
9QnylCR7gunJ8jptqMu7 | I2bVfkY49dQ54suiyzZ2SN15QZA3 | Kraalnaxx | Kraalnaxx | 1,694,013,062,272 | 1,702,875,540,000 | Will Super Mario Bros Wonder or Super Mario RPG have the higher Metascore? | will-super-mario-bros-wonder-or-sup | https://manifold.markets/Kraalnaxx/will-super-mario-bros-wonder-or-sup | {
"NO": 2202.290366019779,
"YES": 89.34104750896205
} | 0.984745 | 0.723658 | 230 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 2,434.240767 | 0 | true | YES | 1,702,891,594,665 | 0.98 | 14 | 1,710,206,717,214 | 1,702,636,877,391 | -1 | [
"gaming",
"video-games",
"metacritic",
"mario",
"the-super-mario-bros-movie"
] | If Wonder has the higher score, resolve to YES. If Super Mario RPG has the higher score, resolve to NO. If Metacritic no longer exists or has not offered Metascores for either game before market close, resolve to N/A. This is based on the Metascore for both games exactly one month after they release, so Wonder's score ... | N/A | I2bVfkY49dQ54suiyzZ2SN15QZA3 | null | |
LsGXxI7J7mfl5Gqesvk6 | JRjIaIdYFlPWBVyekmAG4JNXUw82 | poppinfresh | poppinfresh | 1,664,294,994,151 | 1,668,949,200,000 | Will Harry Maguire be in the starting 11 for England's first game of the 2022 World Cup? | will-harry-maguire-be-in-the-starti | https://manifold.markets/poppinfresh/will-harry-maguire-be-in-the-starti | {
"NO": 280.51945755539015,
"YES": 153.9400649968888
} | 0.73358 | 0.601755 | 200 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 509.876829 | 0 | true | YES | 1,669,040,444,069 | 0.73358 | 16 | 1,697,622,884,264 | 1,668,801,421,072 | 1,697,622,883,142 | [
"sports-default",
"2022-fifa-world-cup",
"fifa-2022-world-cup-1000-competitio"
] | This question resolves "Yes" if Harry Maguire starts for England in their first game of the 2022 World Cup. That game is scheduled to be against Iran on November 21, 2022. | N/A | null | null | |
M7c9gFpFrRaSAD86qebe | IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2 | Manifold | Manifold | 1,670,455,356,116 | 1,670,616,000,000 | Will Messi score before Depay? | will-messi-score-before-depay | https://manifold.markets/Manifold/will-messi-score-before-depay | {
"NO": 820.6584332295906,
"YES": 618.2624617011629
} | 0.687975 | 0.624215 | 690 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 203.655911 | 0 | true | YES | 1,670,623,586,544 | 0.69 | 8 | 1,670,615,981,027 | 1,670,615,980,881 | -1 | [
"fifa-2022-world-cup-1000-competitio",
"2022-fifa-world-cup"
] | This is for Argentina vs the Netherlands Quarterfinals.
Messi, who plays for Argentina, has never scored against the Netherlands even though he has played against them at two previous World Cups. He has 38 goal contributions in his last 39 international appearances.
Depay, who plays for the Netherlands, has been invo... | N/A | null | ||
rwGU8xIJ240ABtHsHbMb | J611lCgdyQdv306O7QPCWtAL0Gc2 | SteveSokolowski | Steve Sokolowski | 1,693,746,589,301 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtc1UM2wtQThBuAPyurW8TD4Y7ydKGRN-eB7Xv8txFEH_g=s96-c | 1,695,959,940,000 | Will Vivek Ramaswamy be attacked the most during the September 27, 2023 Republican Presidential debate? | will-vivek-ramaswamy-be-attacked-th | https://manifold.markets/SteveSokolowski/will-vivek-ramaswamy-be-attacked-th | {
"NO": 429.7202572626705,
"YES": 982.747513048773
} | 0.352172 | 0.554214 | 710 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 2,998.169604 | 0 | true | NO | 1,695,990,390,916 | 0.35 | 36 | 1,710,207,193,112 | 1,695,958,942,557 | 1,695,992,337,507 | [
"us-politics",
"politics-default",
"ai",
"donald-trump",
"magaland",
"debate",
"2024-republican-primaries",
"vivek-ramaswamy"
] | A GOP debate will be held on September 27, 2023.
During the August 23, 2023 debate, businessman Vivek Ramaswamy was the center of attention, being attacked multiple times by the other candidates. This market resolves to YES if Ramaswamy is again attacked more often than everyone else, and NO otherwise.
To resolve th... | N/A | null | null |
kbuXm5wwpLReR6xgmLft | XuMUlOX0CsNLXrirPX51rkt2dtJ2 | RJPerez | RJ Perez | 1,698,506,427,758 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3Cti_GLdR5IHn98aJujYSK9Sx_6EJN_4Jc5K3L0g=s96-c | 1,698,623,051,002 | Will the Arizona Cardinals beat the Baltimore Ravens in their Week 8 matchup in the 2023 NFL Season? | will-the-arizona-cardinals-beat-the-5e865000cf21 | https://manifold.markets/RJPerez/will-the-arizona-cardinals-beat-the-5e865000cf21 | {
"NO": 107.8931991809419,
"YES": 17211.80860458057
} | 0.001464 | 0.189543 | 350 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 20,807.812969 | 0 | true | NO | 1,698,623,065,138 | 0 | 19 | 1,698,622,562,884 | 1,698,622,562,685 | -1 | [
"sports-default",
"arizona-cardinals",
"baltimore-ravens",
"football",
"nfl"
] | Yes - Cardinals win
No - Ravens win or tie
N/A - Game gets canceled | N/A | null | null |
Ieyi3D8dsqDUiG9bCvlU | ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2 | Predictor | Predictor 🔥 | 1,667,246,635,321 | 1,667,329,200,000 | Will the Bed Bath & Beyond Inc (BBBY) stock price close over $4.75 on November 1, 2022? | will-the-bed-bath-beyond-inc-bbby-s-878cb5ab2721 | https://manifold.markets/Predictor/will-the-bed-bath-beyond-inc-bbby-s-878cb5ab2721 | {
"NO": 130.1811597922422,
"YES": 851.9903384684577
} | 0.059466 | 0.29268 | 300 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,713.969051 | 0 | true | NO | 1,667,333,195,690 | 0.059466 | 13 | 1,667,325,601,796 | 1,667,325,601,654 | 1,667,323,216,205 | [
"wall-street-bets"
] | This market resolves YES if BBBY stock is at or over the stated amount in the question.
Betting closes at 3pm ET, and question is resolved after 4pm ET stock market close.
Excellent short-term play, offering quick daily resolutions, and depending on the trading day, easy profits for putting into long-term markets.
... | N/A | null | ||
ZFxAM3IaZD9gePGeQ0p1 | YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2 | CamillePerrin | Camille | 1,706,390,004,194 | 1,706,542,500,000 | Will flight AF 1281 from London to Paris departing on 2024-01-29 arrive with 30+ minutes delay (YES) | will-flight-af-1281-from-london-to-9ac1ae49aa2f | https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-1281-from-london-to-9ac1ae49aa2f | {
"NO": 65.82499603228008,
"YES": 97.99999999999999
} | 0.103297 | 0.146396 | 70 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 28 | 0 | true | NO | 1,706,594,586,778 | 0.1 | 2 | 1,706,594,587,050 | 1,706,540,187,646 | -1 | [
"flight-delays"
] | YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 1281 from London (LHR) to Paris (CDG), NO if on time.
Market close time: 2024-01-29 15:35 (UTC)
Scheduled departure: 2024-01-29 - 17:35 (UTC)
09:35 (Los Angeles)
12:35 (New York)
18:35 (Paris)
Scheduled duration: 01:20
Fine print:
Resolut... | N/A | YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2 | ||
XIZSPc2UIgJlloZifrE7 | YOILpFNyg0gGj79zBIBUpJigHQ83 | SneakySly | SneakySly | 1,660,420,265,180 | 1,662,015,540,000 | Will Manifold have 225 active daily users by the end of the month? | will-manifold-have-225-active-daily | https://manifold.markets/SneakySly/will-manifold-have-225-active-daily | {
"NO": 20.99673887309191,
"YES": 476.2644361318113
} | 0.042225 | 0.5 | 100 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 687.23631 | 0 | true | NO | 1,667,981,019,093 | 0.042225 | 13 | 1,667,981,041,494 | 1,662,014,531,030 | 1,667,981,039,729 | [
"manifold-6748e065087e"
] | As the last two markets resolved NO as Manifold's growth has seemed to stall, we will be using a very conservative estimate and give a little longer for this market.
IF Manifold at any point has 225 or more daily active users as measured by https://manifold.markets/stats this market resolves YES.
ELSE this market re... | N/A | null | null | |
E6TEvf423pg1hhJY8aNS | vLtn8uwcjYUBpKm7DArlsKkEfYs2 | Nosaix | Nosaix | 1,695,035,274,256 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtdPudNpzMO0HcW1ttfXyblhSxwmqcDW2o_jk88lKNFXug=s96-c | 1,695,100,608,023 | Will the lost F35 be found under water? | will-the-lost-f35-be-found-under-wa | https://manifold.markets/Nosaix/will-the-lost-f35-be-found-under-wa | {
"NO": 170.88986440531403,
"YES": 2663.8773699778885
} | 0.027258 | 0.304012 | 770 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 3,776.684885 | 0 | true | NO | 1,695,190,823,563 | 0.03 | 39 | 1,695,100,955,463 | 1,695,099,007,617 | 1,695,100,954,813 | [
"military",
"technology-default",
"south-carolina"
] | Will resolve as YES if it is at least partially submerged in a lake, river or other significant body of water when it is located. If it has broken up, then it will resolve YES of any significant part of the plane is under water (I will use my own judgement).
Edit: Question will close after two months. If the plane ha... | N/A | null | null |
m8PsaAccnGQEoH0o1FdU | 8HDws7JfX9hgphuXyPxYJ1INpCq1 | wingman_web3 | Wingman | 1,693,790,419,073 | 1,694,016,000,000 | Will LX flight 1111 from Munich to Zurich on 2023-09-06 arrive on-time (YES) or with delay >= 30 mins (NO)? | will-lx-flight-1111-from-munich-to-24afa207d440 | https://manifold.markets/wingman_web3/will-lx-flight-1111-from-munich-to-24afa207d440 | {
"NO": 366.28040612306387,
"YES": 270.24501790353384
} | 0.873993 | 0.836534 | 290 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 412.562928 | 0 | true | YES | 1,694,034,532,721 | 0.87 | 15 | 1,694,015,178,541 | 1,694,015,178,425 | -1 | [] | Track flight arrival here: http://tinyurl.com/2p8ps4hp | N/A | null | null | |
DRcQ6XX76jsKJfMyQ6KI | 4xOTMCIOkGesdJft50wVFZFb5IB3 | Tripping | Tripping | 1,683,099,727,586 | 1,697,328,315,345 | Will New Zealand make it to the 2023 Rugby World Cup Semi-finals? | will-new-zealand-make-it-to-the-202-58c9e9567401 | https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-new-zealand-make-it-to-the-202-58c9e9567401 | {
"NO": 11032.023850700276,
"YES": 20.83517909959529
} | 0.998732 | 0.598 | 430 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 27,857.062898 | 0 | true | YES | 1,697,328,315,345 | 1 | 21 | 1,697,317,098,965 | 1,697,317,098,340 | -1 | [
"2023-rugby-world-cup",
"rugby-union",
"rugby"
] | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Rugby_World_Cup
The 2023 Rugby World Cup semi-finals are scheduled to take place on the 20th and 21st of October, 2023, at Stade de France, Saint-Denis. | N/A | null | ||
IUwnzGLhObjwk4TKsj68 | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | SirCryptomind | SirCryptomind | 1,711,365,508,071 | 1,712,635,140,000 | 💲🥚 Will The Average Price Of A Dozen Eggs Be Below $2.50 At The End Of March 2024? | -will-the-average-price-of-a-dozen-e96db22b01d4 | https://manifold.markets/SirCryptomind/-will-the-average-price-of-a-dozen-e96db22b01d4 | {
"NO": 172.54220149787892,
"YES": 1213.1619679275093
} | 0.04 | 0.226582 | 300 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,760.51102 | 0 | true | NO | 1,712,796,467,945 | 0.04 | 13 | 1,712,796,534,438 | 1,712,621,528,823 | 1,712,796,533,342 | [
"economics-default",
"international-monetary-fund",
"federal-reserve",
"fred-data",
"eggs"
] | 💲🥚 Will The Average Price Of A Dozen Eggs Be Below $2.50 At The End Of March 2024?
Resolution Criteria
Will Resolve Yes If The Official Data Shows The Cost Was Less Than $2.50
Will Resolve No If The Official Data Shows The Cost Was $2.50 Or Higher.
Data Source
FRED Economic Data | St. Louis Fed (Source: Internat... | N/A | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | null | |
REk2ZlTGodf0zv5Lbjcx | YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2 | CamillePerrin | Camille | 1,707,429,077,446 | 1,707,540,600,000 | Will flight LO 331 from Warsaw to Paris departing on 2024-02-10 arrive with 30+ minutes delay (YES) | will-flight-lo-331-from-warsaw-to-p-4ce32b3fc3ef | https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-lo-331-from-warsaw-to-p-4ce32b3fc3ef | {
"NO": 69.82497344116538,
"YES": 71.17249190464976
} | 0.107971 | 0.109826 | 70 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 11 | 0 | true | NO | 1,707,558,799,836 | 0.11 | 2 | 1,707,558,800,133 | 1,707,530,414,452 | -1 | [
"flight-delays"
] | YES on arrival delay of flight LOT Polish Airlines LO 331 from Warsaw (WAW) to Paris (CDG), NO if on time.
Market close time: 2024-02-10 04:50 (UTC)
Scheduled departure: 2024-02-10 - 06:50 (UTC)
22:50 (Los Angeles)
01:50 (New York)
07:50 (Paris)
Scheduled duration: 02:10
Fine print:
... | N/A | YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2 | ||
dVYc8XL2JWODgMiHbSQH | BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2 | Haws | Haws | 1,703,083,084,978 | 1,703,458,800,000 | Will BNB close higher on December 24 than it closed on December 23? | will-bnb-close-higher-on-december-2-4b9b01134fc3 | https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-bnb-close-higher-on-december-2-4b9b01134fc3 | {
"NO": 150.30445759416767,
"YES": 402.9213335276015
} | 0.259327 | 0.484158 | 250 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 475.163366 | 0 | true | NO | 1,703,468,004,164 | 0.26 | 11 | 1,703,467,999,858 | 1,703,456,011,179 | 1,703,467,999,170 | [
"sccsq4",
"crypto-prices",
"hawsbollah"
] | Question closes an hour before 12 UTC.
Resolves based on Google Finance reporting
Previous Close: $
Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.
DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)
SIMILAR MARKETS
LEADERBOARD STATS$ | N/A | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | ||
1UKReeWafmtuzzml7rH5 | HnyzqGs3sdhBeabLBhGhPgP4i3y2 | NGK | NGK | 1,705,710,625,668 | 1,710,449,235,451 | Will SpaceX launch IFT-3 by July AND successfully demonstrate in-orbit propellant transfer? | will-spacex-launch-ift3-in-july-and | https://manifold.markets/NGK/will-spacex-launch-ift3-in-july-and | {
"NO": 39.42252765978333,
"YES": 3979.358922825337
} | 0.005433 | 0.355411 | 230 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 4,370.279225 | 0 | true | NO | 1,710,449,235,451 | 0.01 | 13 | 1,710,449,236,276 | 1,710,428,145,532 | 1,705,933,071,323 | [
"rockets",
"spacex",
"space"
] | Resolves Yes if IFT-3 launches by July and successfully demonstrates propellant transfer.
Defining reaching orbit as a stable orbit and completing at least one revolution around Earth
Defining successful propellant transfer based on how SpaceX/NASA report
Elon Musk stated IFT-3 goals here:
https://youtube.com/clip/... | N/A | HnyzqGs3sdhBeabLBhGhPgP4i3y2 | ||
teEJnGEWAmmA9tGPG5PG | KWPeZvwJRqP0uvKGvI6S1F6AOmh2 | LukeW | LukeW | 1,682,714,977,474 | 1,683,874,740,000 | Was Olivia the most popular girls name in the U.S. in 2022? | was-olivia-the-most-popular-girls-n-17c2b708bb1b | https://manifold.markets/LukeW/was-olivia-the-most-popular-girls-n-17c2b708bb1b | {
"NO": 669.8954286222871,
"YES": 133.61152355341707
} | 0.966579 | 0.852254 | 190 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 2,674.43136 | 0 | true | YES | 1,683,902,520,305 | 0.97 | 9 | 1,683,872,411,204 | 1,683,872,411,082 | 1,682,715,477,429 | [
"culture-default"
] | Traditionally, on the Friday before Mother's Day, the US Social Security Agency releases the list of the most popular names of the previous year. This market resolves to "YES" if and only if more girls were named Olivia than any other name in 2022, according to the SSA. https://www.ssa.gov/oact/babynames/
Olivia has b... | N/A | null | ||
2SD3bGSgh71pJmgzIN3z | mezmUpPpyxarKrHxAs0k07Y1bVc2 | StopPunting | Stop Punting | 1,701,729,106,341 | 1,703,995,396,988 | Will Manifold correctly predict the The Destiny Awards 2023 (TDA2023) - DuckerZ of the Year? | will-manifold-correctly-predict-the-a8690dfca102 | https://manifold.markets/StopPunting/will-manifold-correctly-predict-the-a8690dfca102 | {
"NO": 468.3164544420157,
"YES": 47.38842188387788
} | 0.938783 | 0.608114 | 130 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 835.235452 | 0 | true | YES | 1,703,995,396,988 | 0.94 | 6 | 1,703,995,397,619 | 1,703,995,109,190 | 1,703,995,391,596 | [
"debate",
"the-destiny-awards-2023-e70b6f70a125",
"the-destiny-awards-2023",
"destinygg",
"new-years-resolutions-2024"
] | Using this market for reference as it has the most traders as of creating this question:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/UFTG/tda23-duckerz-of-the-year)Let me know if anybody has an issue with using that Market instead of another.
This will be resolved by looking at what the final percentages are before the results a... | N/A | mezmUpPpyxarKrHxAs0k07Y1bVc2 | ||
y3o3rjKowsdMLtDYqNys | jXKysyvsCIgiBUHgbszrJTeAKsV2 | Ehteidgs | Ehteidgs | 1,692,139,880,426 | 1,692,991,780,117 | Will there be more than 50 protestors when Trump turns himself in in Georgia? | will-there-be-more-than-50-protesto | https://manifold.markets/Ehteidgs/will-there-be-more-than-50-protesto | {
"NO": 343.2262585724039,
"YES": 210.3927368484959
} | 0.672032 | 0.556748 | 270 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 373.149482 | 0 | true | YES | 1,692,991,784,512 | 0.67 | 13 | 1,692,991,810,755 | 1,692,922,074,079 | 1,692,991,807,437 | [
"politics-default",
"donald-trump",
"magaland",
"us-politics"
] | N/A | null | null | ||
YPRYtMBSZp8WQYbrbMVF | RENPmnXDYmbTnIzOBdoy8QiOWHH3 | BlueDragon | Archibald Crone | 1,714,588,597,501 | 1,714,603,937,956 | Will Arizona legalize abortion before Florida does? | will-arizona-legalize-abortion-befo | https://manifold.markets/BlueDragon/will-arizona-legalize-abortion-befo | {
"NO": 393.2176976671059,
"YES": 25.431205307717107
} | 0.939254 | 0.5 | 100 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 297 | 0 | true | YES | 1,714,603,937,956 | 0.94 | 7 | 1,714,606,157,009 | 1,714,602,496,492 | 1,714,606,155,695 | [
"florida",
"arizona",
"abortion",
"us-politics"
] | Resolved when either state eases access to abortion, when a rule change is made via courts, ballot propositions or legislation, not when it goes into effect.
Close date will be extended as needed. | N/A | RENPmnXDYmbTnIzOBdoy8QiOWHH3 | null | |
LAK0nyt2dc5o8eg5ZstL | bBkMmdrsu4dsy0Yguic0QvdN1o52 | GoncaloM | Gonçalo M | 1,707,157,506,733 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtdtRkT2LCncUT9PVlZ18slyb_JQHvRVem9W57YLGpj8r7CQ=s96-c | 1,707,599,890,997 | Will AMD's (NASDAQ Ticker: $AMD) stock price close above $177.66 per share on February 9, 2024? | will-amds-nasdaq-ticker-amd-stock-p-841509e212b1 | https://manifold.markets/GoncaloM/will-amds-nasdaq-ticker-amd-stock-p-841509e212b1 | {
"NO": 127.62560066759977,
"YES": 15340.867948416437
} | 0.001922 | 0.188004 | 410 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 16,333.532195 | 0 | true | NO | 1,707,599,890,997 | 0 | 23 | 1,707,599,948,388 | 1,707,566,081,178 | 1,707,599,947,692 | [
"technology-default",
"tech-stocks",
"wall-street-bets",
"gpu",
"amd",
"stocks"
] | AMD Weekly prediction
Will resolve YES if AMD's stock closes above $177.66 USD on the closing price of 9 of February, 2024. Any moves above that price during the week will not count towards this market.
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/AMD:NASDAQ | N/A | bBkMmdrsu4dsy0Yguic0QvdN1o52 | |
gWtpDJD5WyefHvF6lAOK | rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2 | SimonGrayson | Simon Grayson | 1,702,054,106,620 | 1,702,312,200,000 | Will the UK's FTSE 100 close higher on 11th December than it closed on 8th December? | will-the-uks-ftse-100-close-higher-ab3535c321cd | https://manifold.markets/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-close-higher-ab3535c321cd | {
"NO": 141.56163689620485,
"YES": 498.57731538898753
} | 0.09978 | 0.280769 | 250 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,730.22947 | 0 | true | NO | 1,702,313,674,061 | 0.1 | 13 | 1,710,462,512,596 | 1,702,312,167,067 | -1 | [
"stocks",
"uk",
"ftse-100",
"sccsq4",
"short-fuse"
] | Will the FTSE 100 close higher on Monday 11th December than it did on Friday 8th December?
The market closes at 16:30 UK time when trading stops on the FTSE.
The official source of truth is the official FTSE 100 page but this is delayed by around 15 minutes so many traders use Google to track up to the minute prices,... | N/A | rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2 | ||
F2ra5l6CFhuZx4pCQzLI | bs7dM1kvxVcePD0BgxPBqh2JgE32 | LiamScott1 | Liam Scott | 1,691,620,664,563 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FJoshuaGage%2FJSBifiwpsY.supabase?alt=media&token=93a94bdb-520d-4784-8932-a1b88086c8e4 | 1,691,693,463,498 | Will the rapper Lil Tay's reported death be revealed to be fake by Jan 1st 2024? | will-the-rapper-lil-tays-reported-d | https://manifold.markets/LiamScott1/will-the-rapper-lil-tays-reported-d | {
"NO": 1851.3570420763954,
"YES": 112.39337858116151
} | 0.945955 | 0.515175 | 490 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 3,714.523924 | 0 | true | YES | 1,691,693,463,498 | 0.95 | 25 | 1,691,696,073,017 | 1,691,692,906,132 | 1,691,696,070,561 | [
"music-f213cbf1eab5",
"death-markets",
"celebrities",
"music-artists"
] | Rapper Lil Tay has been reported dead at 14 in several outlets. In my sole opinion, will Lil Tay's death be revealed to be faked by the 1st of the year, 2024?
https://ew.com/celebrity/lil-tay-the-sensation-dies-at/
[link preview] | N/A | null | null |
MWj8eCIUPEZaITcGkVpi | XuMUlOX0CsNLXrirPX51rkt2dtJ2 | RJPerez | RJ Perez | 1,703,613,061,090 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3Cti_GLdR5IHn98aJujYSK9Sx_6EJN_4Jc5K3L0g=s96-c | 1,704,068,589,339 | Will the Kansas City Chiefs beat the Cincinnati Bengals in their Week 17 matchup in the 2023 NFL Season? | will-the-kansas-city-chiefs-beat-th-84ca79250102 | https://manifold.markets/RJPerez/will-the-kansas-city-chiefs-beat-th-84ca79250102 | {
"NO": 8664.845550679438,
"YES": 40.80400441047003
} | 0.998056 | 0.707408 | 230 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 10,934.976071 | 0 | true | YES | 1,704,068,595,178 | 1 | 15 | 1,704,068,595,562 | 1,704,068,432,825 | -1 | [
"sports-default",
"cincinnati-bengals",
"football",
"nfl",
"kansas-city-chiefs"
] | Yes - Chiefs win
No - Bengals win or tie
N/A - Game gets canceled | N/A | XuMUlOX0CsNLXrirPX51rkt2dtJ2 | |
jhzvMqqy7DTjC5jA9dvh | 4ihJJze0FJbYecf5SRdekxG3qXj2 | JakubLipinski | Jakub Lipinski | 1,678,996,709,702 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxaZUVaiILSbPNGu2YksBwDRHoVHqSsLtu41CVetoSE=s96-c | 1,697,539,536,489 | Will Law and Justice (PiS) win the parliamentary elections in Poland in 2023? | will-law-and-justice-pis-win-the-pa | https://manifold.markets/JakubLipinski/will-law-and-justice-pis-win-the-pa | {
"NO": 4977.704176246781,
"YES": 258.9516799453328
} | 0.984274 | 0.765042 | 550 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 8,659.376344 | 0 | true | YES | 1,697,539,536,489 | 0.98 | 30 | 1,697,538,294,394 | 1,697,437,343,227 | 1,697,538,293,618 | [
"politics-in-poland"
] | I will resolve this market based on the official results published by the State Election Commission (PKW).
[image] | N/A | null | |
QqFNeFdL3UcluYfht6vW | rSxMtWUlLOaEAQfJUAFk6bw2A6K2 | Orimos | Christian | 1,699,636,916,927 | 1,699,891,200,000 | Will Deutsche Bank AG close higher november 13th than the close of november 10th? (Daily Market) | will-deutsche-bank-ag-close-higher-60097c420e95 | https://manifold.markets/Orimos/will-deutsche-bank-ag-close-higher-60097c420e95 | {
"NO": 544.5198712860541,
"YES": 67.62882865321565
} | 0.92 | 0.588187 | 210 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 843.692086 | 0 | true | YES | 1,699,895,109,473 | 0.92 | 10 | 1,710,222,343,809 | 1,699,890,807,060 | 1,699,895,102,525 | [
"stocks",
"sccsq4"
] | Deutsche Bank AG closes 6:30 PM MEZ.
Predictions ends 5 PM MEZ.
Previous close:
[image]Resolves according to the display at https://g.co/finance/DBK:ETR at the end of the day.
Resolves NO if closes Flat (Same Close Price As Prior Day) regardless of color of % & Chart on Google Finance as the close value is the fi... | N/A | null | null | |
oAD6uEQDk2ID3GrVDi11 | GPse71VnBSenORNq7iSUzo2svKW2 | eppsilon | eppsilon | 1,701,639,085,521 | 1,702,781,100,000 | 🏈 2023 NCAAF: Will Fresno State beat New Mexico State in the New Mexico Bowl? | -2023-ncaaf-will-fresno-state-beat-033551f4cf7e | https://manifold.markets/eppsilon/-2023-ncaaf-will-fresno-state-beat-033551f4cf7e | {
"NO": 3378.6410206591495,
"YES": 22.27048505069335
} | 0.996838 | 0.675097 | 170 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 3,511.972487 | 0 | true | YES | 1,702,782,681,709 | 1 | 9 | 1,702,778,494,238 | 1,702,778,493,675 | -1 | [
"sports-default",
"football",
"college-football",
"mountain-west-conference"
] | 2023-12-16 at 5:45 PM ET in Albuquerque, NM. Line: NM State -3.0. | N/A | GPse71VnBSenORNq7iSUzo2svKW2 | ||
q6ZRAoDMukhiYzBXdYiE | Slc2bMfwsXVO6KnwMBWk7a8f4iG3 | kheidi | kheidi | 1,697,750,263,710 | 1,699,509,540,000 | Will Survivor legend Cirie Fields win season 25 of Big Brother? | will-survivor-legend-cirie-fields-w | https://manifold.markets/kheidi/will-survivor-legend-cirie-fields-w | {
"NO": 58.902276093694155,
"YES": 256.01997595996664
} | 0.111199 | 0.352248 | 110 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 189.842548 | 0 | true | NO | 1,699,914,565,463 | 0.11 | 6 | 1,699,507,171,280 | 1,699,507,171,112 | -1 | [
"entertainment-12ba84d9b720",
"tv",
"entertainment"
] | Cirie Fields is known as the greatest Survivor player to never win. She has been on four seasons of survivor and won season 1 of The Traitors. Cirie is now in the Big Brother house, and as of posting this question, has survived 78/100 days.
[image] | N/A | null | null | |
5zIjH4BxXkbcCdUL2DU9 | rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2 | SimonGrayson | Simon Grayson | 1,712,992,511,939 | 1,714,393,215,305 | Will the great Manifold Pivot result in Mana having a real value? | will-the-great-manifold-pivot-resul | https://manifold.markets/SimonGrayson/will-the-great-manifold-pivot-resul | {
"NO": 381.93656410273326,
"YES": 1804.987032939692
} | 0.122708 | 0.397958 | 760 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 2,494.506691 | 0 | true | NO | 1,714,393,215,305 | 0.12 | 37 | 1,714,393,215,305 | 1,714,138,235,249 | 1,714,393,207,700 | [
"mana",
"manifold-investors",
"manifold-6748e065087e",
"manifold-features-25bad7c7792e",
"pivot-predictions"
] | Manifold have announced some major changes to the way that we can earn Mana by trading in the name of creating a "sustainable Mana economy":
https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/Announcement-A-sustainable-mana-economy-08b86e8937554cc7a4608371f66ecb10
This includes having users pay fees to trade and paying market creat... | N/A | rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2 | null | |
CLqUhz4grwZP44BHDh3k | 8HDws7JfX9hgphuXyPxYJ1INpCq1 | wingman_web3 | Wingman | 1,693,200,219,981 | 1,693,278,600,000 | Will SU flight 1860 from Moscow to Yerevan on 2023-08-29 arrive on-time (YES) or with delay >= 30 mins (NO)? | will-su-flight-1860-from-moscow-to | https://manifold.markets/wingman_web3/will-su-flight-1860-from-moscow-to | {
"NO": 498.21781082086824,
"YES": 159.98395258224915
} | 0.966776 | 0.903326 | 190 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 513.513008 | 0 | true | YES | 1,693,321,936,010 | 0.97 | 9 | 1,693,273,629,306 | 1,693,273,628,538 | -1 | [] | Track flight arrival here: https://tinyurl.com/yfu7j99z | N/A | null | null | |
QiFXd0kxElrRgaFoYRWo | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | SirCryptomind | SirCryptomind | 1,700,418,321,144 | 1,703,704,500,000 | Will the VIX (INDEXCBOE: VIX) close higher on Wed. December 27th than it closed on Tue. December 26th? {DAILY} | will-the-vix-indexcboe-vix-close-hi-bd2a99d24dbe | https://manifold.markets/SirCryptomind/will-the-vix-indexcboe-vix-close-hi-bd2a99d24dbe | {
"NO": 87.26774936880955,
"YES": 432.05590044144776
} | 0.15024 | 0.466764 | 190 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 383.75627 | 0 | true | NO | 1,703,718,310,039 | 0.15 | 8 | 1,703,718,310,416 | 1,703,698,791,232 | 1,703,718,303,141 | [
"sccsq4"
] | VIX (INDEXCBOE: VIX)
VIX closes at 4pm ET (9pm UTC) and reports on an up to hour delay.
Predictions close at 215pm (715pm UTC)
Resolves YES or NO ; N/A May Occur At My Discretion If Markets Crash
Resolves NO If Closes Flat (Same close price as prior day)
Resolves according to the display at *Google Finance at the ... | N/A | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | null | |
NQ2zzCSFD9ODbQHgdzVp | rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2 | SimonGrayson | Simon Grayson | 1,710,524,915,615 | 1,713,307,999,945 | Champions League quarter finals - will Atletico Madrid qualify over Borussia Dortmund? | champions-league-quarter-finals-wil-55891440528d | https://manifold.markets/SimonGrayson/champions-league-quarter-finals-wil-55891440528d | {
"NO": 104.51668480964656,
"YES": 2866.98458434422
} | 0.01 | 0.216963 | 380 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 4,607.856915 | 0 | true | NO | 1,713,307,999,945 | 0.01 | 17 | 1,713,308,034,248 | 1,713,300,891,599 | 1,713,308,033,506 | [
"football",
"uefa-champions-league",
"uefa"
] | The draw for the quarter finals of the Champions League has been made:
Arsenal vs Bayern Munich @/SimonGrayson/champions-league-quarter-finals-wil
Atlético Madrid vs Borussia Dortmund @/SimonGrayson/champions-league-quarter-finals-wil-55891440528d
Real Madrid vs Manchester City @/SimonGrayson/champions-league-quar... | N/A | rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2 | null | |
8Mgs1LHDHuFfPstit5G1 | hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2 | AmmonLam | Ammon Lam | 1,704,139,147,573 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c | 1,704,517,140,000 | Will Biden 2024 Democratic Nominee Market be in [86%,87%] at the end of Jan 05, 2024? | will-biden-2024-democratic-nominee-fc90a7759eb8 | https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-biden-2024-democratic-nominee-fc90a7759eb8 | {
"NO": 139.9537116881118,
"YES": 218.29717447509756
} | 0.308341 | 0.410151 | 170 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 72.169049 | 0 | true | NO | 1,704,549,512,667 | 0.31 | 8 | 1,704,549,512,953 | 1,704,514,055,085 | -1 | [] | Resolves to Yes if the referenced market is at [86%,87%] (inclusive) at the end of Jan 05, 2024.
Resolves to No otherwise.
Referenced Market: https://manifold.markets/NathanpmYoung/will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n
Note:
-Resolution base on the displayed rounded probability
-Base on ET time zone
| N/A | hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2 | null |
1pDaecG5tC09P4QWbqP8 | YDvfEB2gLIfMz3Agxq3qLr6GCIA2 | Arinbjorn | Arinbjörn | 1,695,568,350,133 | 1,716,159,540,000 | Will Mauricio Pochettino be the manager of Chelsea at the end of the 23/24 season? | will-mauricio-pochettino-be-the-man | https://manifold.markets/Arinbjorn/will-mauricio-pochettino-be-the-man | {
"NO": 1418.2147669577466,
"YES": 85.68975104185631
} | 0.962283 | 0.606534 | 1,000 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 4,098.959994 | 0 | true | YES | 1,716,189,578,762 | 0.96 | 18 | 1,716,159,540,000 | 1,716,158,512,248 | 1,697,666,734,127 | [
"sports-default",
"premiere-league",
"football"
] | For the final premier league match of the 23/24 season, will Mauricio Pochettino be the manager (head coach) of Chelsea FC? | N/A | YDvfEB2gLIfMz3Agxq3qLr6GCIA2 | null | |
n6sRCgbDSs25qnMeKSlI | TVbBrEXvrLfttgh5OtxGz84wWsn2 | carl | carl | 1,668,971,329,881 | 1,696,009,112,834 | Will Destiny Talk to Vaush in 2023? | will-destiny-talk-to-vaush-in-2023 | https://manifold.markets/carl/will-destiny-talk-to-vaush-in-2023 | {
"NO": 18725.33195812535,
"YES": 81.21384823540518
} | 0.993947 | 0.415937 | 1,990 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 88,078.213984 | 0 | true | YES | 1,696,009,112,834 | 0.99 | 239 | 1,696,009,491,346 | 1,696,009,058,578 | 1,696,009,489,679 | [
"destinygg"
] | Will Destiny (Steven Kenneth Bonnell II) talk to Vaush (Ian Kochinsky) in the year 2023?
Edit: Title Edit was just for testing reasons, this Market will close on December 31st 2023!
Talk: Be in the same (discord) call, or talk face to face, and exchange a couple of sentences. | N/A | null | ||
PzBki2fpNAruf0XHf9Fk | QMDpexcLP5NUeIHiNMS2LtIgFs42 | Molari | Jameson | 1,696,775,526,636 | 1,697,828,108,733 | Will Nikki Haley pass Ron Desantis in any national poll by November 1 2023 | will-nikki-haley-pass-ron-desantis-6a0608d75517 | https://manifold.markets/Molari/will-nikki-haley-pass-ron-desantis-6a0608d75517 | {
"NO": 5533.3986874736975,
"YES": 163.96752690943228
} | 0.971427 | 0.501855 | 1,015 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 13,093.544523 | 0 | true | YES | 1,697,828,108,733 | 0.97 | 60 | 1,697,829,028,108 | 1,697,827,337,449 | 1,697,829,027,584 | [
"nikki-haley",
"ron-desantis",
"2024-us-presidential-election",
"us-politics",
"polls",
"2024-republican-primaries",
"florida"
] | Any national poll by nonpartisan polling firm currently polling the Republican primary. Resolves to yes if Haley has any numerical proportion greater than Desantis to .1 percent precision
No if Haley is tied or Desantis leads | N/A | null | null | |
3rMO6tIlZnEnZ9BjcERV | uIA81X2m3aVLEl1DqDBJfR1nJ0n2 | NicoDelon | Nico | 1,690,061,002,527 | 1,699,616,455,095 | Will the 80,000 hours podcast release an episode about COVID origins by end 2024? | will-the-80000-hours-podcast-releas | https://manifold.markets/NicoDelon/will-the-80000-hours-podcast-releas | {
"NO": 708.2112332971101,
"YES": 43.61764150722235
} | 0.927146 | 0.439394 | 230 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 817.051576 | 0 | true | YES | 1,699,616,455,095 | 0.93 | 12 | 1,699,597,399,045 | 1,699,597,398,918 | 1,699,575,724,851 | [
"covid-origins",
"effective-altruism",
"science-default",
"80000-hours"
] | 80,000 Hours believes in pandemic preparedness and has released several episodes on COVID, pandemics, and biosecurity. They have not, to date, done an episode engaging (fully or partly) with the origins controversy. Will they do one and release it before the end of 2024?
cc @RobertWiblin | N/A | null | null | |
4tCYifn6EotPftaGIFT7 | 4ITHRRx3y3SR9Qj9RnyEEQ9qO863 | suzanne | suzanne | 1,706,844,821,105 | 1,709,276,340,000 | Will Dua Lipa announce the title and release date of her new album by the end of February 2024? | will-dua-lipa-announce-the-title-an | https://manifold.markets/suzanne/will-dua-lipa-announce-the-title-an | {
"NO": 75.7264541952937,
"YES": 2815.396671438032
} | 0.01 | 0.273013 | 290 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 3,442.813478 | 0 | true | NO | 1,709,303,581,174 | 0.01 | 14 | 1,709,303,581,515 | 1,709,274,851,457 | 1,709,298,493,619 | [
"music-f213cbf1eab5"
] | her first single for this album was released nov 9 2023 with the second single set to release feb 15 2024.
not going to count leaks, must be an official statement from her and/or her team | N/A | 4ITHRRx3y3SR9Qj9RnyEEQ9qO863 | ||
pH11M00z93lPyRGJexrC | uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2 | BoltonBailey | Bolton Bailey | 1,645,312,032,880 | 1,668,652,345,050 | Will Democrats maintain control of the House in the 2022 midterms? | will-democrats-maintain-control-of | https://manifold.markets/BoltonBailey/will-democrats-maintain-control-of | {
"NO": 1140.9811329046051,
"YES": 36064.7524329353
} | 0.005491 | 0.148591 | 1,923.416682 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 157,560.101759 | 0 | true | NO | 1,668,652,345,050 | 0.005491 | 230 | 1,668,649,429,127 | 1,668,649,428,960 | 1,668,644,872,229 | [
"politics-default",
"us-2022-elections",
"us-2022-midterms"
] | This market resolves to YES if, in the 2022 midterm elections for the U.S. House of Representatives, members of the Democratic party win a strict majority of seats. If I decide that the number of seats won by Democrats is ambiguous as of the resolution date, the market resolves to N/A.
Close date updated to 2022-11-0... | N/A | null | null |
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