id int64 28.1k 30.8k | title stringlengths 18 192 | description stringlengths 0 5.49k | resolution stringclasses 29
values | close stringlengths 20 20 | open stringlengths 20 20 | status stringclasses 1
value | __index_level_0__ int64 23 696 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
30,813 | Which state will have the highest real GDP growth rate in Q3 2024: California, Texas or Illinois? | [UCLA Forecast: Trump Deportations, Tariffs Create ‘Shadow of Uncertainty’ for California Economy](https://timesofsandiego.com/business/2024/12/11/ucla-forecast-trump-deportations-tariffs-create-shadow-of-uncertainty-for-california-economy/) | [Texas overcomes mid-summer doldrums as economic prospects improve](https://... | Texas | 2024-12-19T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-18T15:30:00Z | resolved | 23 |
30,809 | How many books on the New York Times Best Sellers list will be tagged as "New this week" for the week of January 5, 2024? | The New York Times Bests Sellers list has been published regularly since 1931 making it, from a forecasting standpoint, itself an example of the [Lindy Effect](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2308.09045) in forecasting. According to [Book History, Volume 3](https://books.google.com/books?id=PEZkkbohbtoC\&pg=PA290#v=onepage\&q\&f... | 0-2 | 2024-12-21T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-20T15:30:00Z | resolved | 24 |
30,807 | How many unique posters will Bluesky have on December 29, 2024? | The Hollywood Reporter December 13, 2024: [Bluesky Hits 25M Users As Exodus From X Continues](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/business/digital/bluesky-25-million-users-milestone-1236086109/)
> Bluesky, the upstart social media platform, hit the important milestone of 25 million users early Friday morning.
>
> The ... | 828408.0 | 2024-12-21T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-20T15:30:00Z | resolved | 25 |
30,766 | What will be the U.S. International Investment Position in the 3rd Quarter of 2024? | According to [the BEA]():
> The international investment position (IIP) is a statistical balance sheet that presents the dollar value of U.S. financial assets and liabilities with respect to foreign residents at a specific point in time. BEA presents IIP statistics at the end of a quarter or year (March, June, Septemb... | -23.6 | 2024-12-19T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-18T15:30:00Z | resolved | 44 |
30,740 | Will the cheapest new Tesla Model Y be listed as under $44,990 on December 30, 2024? | As of December 11, 2024, this price was $44,990 | no | 2024-12-13T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-12T15:30:00Z | resolved | 46 |
30,726 | Will the Grouse Mountain ski resort be listed as Open by On the Snow's Ski Report on December 20, 2024? | Vancouver Sun February 2024: ['Feels like a ripoff': Ski pass holders expecting discounts as some B.C. mountains remain closed](https://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/ski-pass-holders-expecting-discounts-as-bc-mountains-remain-closed) | yes | 2024-12-12T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-11T15:30:00Z | resolved | 51 |
30,724 | Will the domestic opening weekend box office revenue of Homestead, scheduled to open December 20, 2024, exceed $7,000,000? | Box Office Mojo generally [defines](https://help.imdb.com/article/imdbpro/industry-research/box-office-mojo-by-imdbpro-faq/GCWTV4MQKGWRAUAP#domesticinternational) "domestic" as gross box-office revenue from North America (U.S., Canada, and Puerto Rico). According to the [Box Office by IMDbPro Glossary](https://help.imd... | no | 2024-12-12T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-11T15:30:00Z | resolved | 53 |
30,659 | How much will A Complete Unknown earn in domestic gross earnings during the 5-day period from its Christmas 2024 opening through Sunday December 29, 2024? | [A Complete Unknown](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Complete_Unknown) is an upcoming biographical film about Bob Dylan by James Mangold, who also directed the 2005 biographical film *Walk the Line* about musician Johnny Cash. The movie stars Timothée Chalamet as Bob Dylan, Edward Norton as Pete Seeger and Monica Barb... | annulled | 2024-12-17T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-14T15:30:00Z | resolved | 55 |
30,638 | Will the year-over-year increase in rent in Dallas, TX in November 2024 be greater than or equal to 0.0%, according to Zillow? | According to Zillow, housing data is updated on the 12th of each month. | yes | 2024-12-11T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-10T15:30:00Z | resolved | 63 |
30,637 | Will the year-over-year increase in prices of homes in Virginia Beach, VA in November 2024 be greater than or equal to 4.0%, according to Zillow? | According to Zillow, housing data is updated on the 12th of each month. | yes | 2024-12-11T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-10T15:30:00Z | resolved | 64 |
30,616 | Will Climeworks still exist on December 31, 2024?
| annulled | 2024-12-10T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-09T15:30:00Z | resolved | 67 | |
30,586 | Will France have a new Prime Minister before January 1, 2025? | [Politico](https://www.politico.eu/article/france-prime-minister-michel-barnier-is-facing-the-chop-what-happens-next-crisis-emmanuel-macron/):
> On Monday, Barnier, the EU’s former chief Brexit negotiator, used a controversial constitutional maneuver to bypass parliament and force through a social security financing b... | yes | 2024-12-07T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-06T15:30:00Z | resolved | 77 |
30,579 | Will Joe Biden sign 4 or more executive orders after Election Day and before January 1, 2025? | According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_order):
>In the United States, an executive order is a directive by the president of the United States that manages operations of the federal government.The legal or constitutional basis for executive orders has multiple sources. Article Two of the Un... | yes | 2024-12-07T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-06T15:30:00Z | resolved | 84 |
30,578 | Will Joe Biden sign 3 or more executive orders after Election Day and before January 1, 2025? | According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_order):
>In the United States, an executive order is a directive by the president of the United States that manages operations of the federal government.The legal or constitutional basis for executive orders has multiple sources. Article Two of the Un... | yes | 2024-12-07T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-06T15:30:00Z | resolved | 85 |
30,577 | Will Joe Biden sign 2 or more executive orders after Election Day and before January 1, 2025? | According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_order):
>In the United States, an executive order is a directive by the president of the United States that manages operations of the federal government.The legal or constitutional basis for executive orders has multiple sources. Article Two of the Un... | yes | 2024-12-07T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-06T15:30:00Z | resolved | 86 |
30,534 | Will Miami have at least 5 days of rain in December 2024? | At the time of this question, Miami is Abnormally Dry according to Drought.gov at [this link](https://www.drought.gov/states/florida/county/miami-dade). | yes | 2024-12-06T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-05T15:30:00Z | resolved | 94 |
30,532 | Will Ghana declare a winner in its presidential election before January 1, 2025? | [Ghana’s December 2024 elections put the resilience of the country’s vaunted democracy to the test](https://afripoli.org/ghanas-december-2024-elections-put-the-resilience-of-the-countrys-vaunted-democracy-to-the-test) | [Ghana 2024 Elections: A Risk Assessment of the Online Information Space](https://www.iri.org/resour... | yes | 2024-12-06T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-05T15:30:00Z | resolved | 96 |
30,504 | Will the Alpental ski resort be listed as Open by On the Snow's Ski Report on December 6, 2024? | From the resolution source: "Alpental (German for alpine valley) is one of four base areas at the Summit at Snoqualmie, separated from the other three by Interstate 90. Alpental offers the most advanced and expert terrain at the area with runs like Upper International and Shot Six. The area provides some of the steepes... | no | 2024-12-05T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-04T15:30:00Z | resolved | 111 |
30,503 | Will the US national average retail price of regular gasoline between $3.020 and $3.080 (inclusive) for the week of December 9, 2024? | According to [EIA](https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/gas_proc-methods.php), "Every Monday, EIA collects information on retail prices for regular, midgrade, and premium grades of gasoline from a sample of retail gasoline outlets across the United States using Form EIA-878, Motor Gasoline Price Survey Schedule A. T... | no | 2024-12-05T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-04T15:30:00Z | resolved | 112 |
30,502 | Will the US national average retail price of regular gasoline be less than $3.020 for the week of December 9, 2024? | According to [EIA](https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/gas_proc-methods.php), "Every Monday, EIA collects information on retail prices for regular, midgrade, and premium grades of gasoline from a sample of retail gasoline outlets across the United States using Form EIA-878, Motor Gasoline Price Survey Schedule A. T... | yes | 2024-12-05T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-04T15:30:00Z | resolved | 113 |
30,501 | Will the US national average retail price of regular gasoline be greater than $3.080 for the week of December 9, 2024? | According to [EIA](https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/gas_proc-methods.php), "Every Monday, EIA collects information on retail prices for regular, midgrade, and premium grades of gasoline from a sample of retail gasoline outlets across the United States using Form EIA-878, Motor Gasoline Price Survey Schedule A. T... | no | 2024-12-05T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-04T15:30:00Z | resolved | 114 |
30,500 | Will November 2024 have a global temperature increase of greater than or equal to 1.25 degrees and less than or equal to 1.31 degrees? | According to [NOAA](https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/global-temperature-anomalies), "The term temperature anomaly means a departure from a reference value or long-term average. A positive anomaly indicates that the observed temperature was warmer than the reference value, while a negative anomaly indicates t... | no | 2024-12-05T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-04T15:30:00Z | resolved | 115 |
30,499 | Will November 2024 have a global temperature increase of <1.25 degrees? | According to [NOAA](https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/global-temperature-anomalies), "The term temperature anomaly means a departure from a reference value or long-term average. A positive anomaly indicates that the observed temperature was warmer than the reference value, while a negative anomaly indicates t... | no | 2024-12-05T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-04T15:30:00Z | resolved | 116 |
30,498 | Will November 2024 have a global temperature increase of >1.31 degrees? | According to [NOAA](https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/global-temperature-anomalies), "The term temperature anomaly means a departure from a reference value or long-term average. A positive anomaly indicates that the observed temperature was warmer than the reference value, while a negative anomaly indicates t... | yes | 2024-12-05T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-04T15:30:00Z | resolved | 117 |
30,474 | Will France have a new Prime Minister before January 1, 2025? | [Politico](https://www.politico.eu/article/france-prime-minister-michel-barnier-is-facing-the-chop-what-happens-next-crisis-emmanuel-macron/):
> On Monday, Barnier, the EU’s former chief Brexit negotiator, used a controversial constitutional maneuver to bypass parliament and force through a social security financing b... | yes | 2024-12-13T05:01:00Z | 2024-12-06T15:30:00Z | resolved | 123 |
30,447 | Will Candy Meehan survive the recall vote in Norwood, Colorado, scheduled for December 10, 2024? | Ballotpedia: [Candy Meehan recall, Norwood, Colorado (2024)](https://ballotpedia.org/Candy_Meehan_recall,_Norwood,_Colorado_(2024)) | yes | 2024-12-04T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-03T15:30:00Z | resolved | 129 |
30,442 | Will be Donald Trump's net favorability rating on December 27, 2024 be less than -6? | [FiveThirtyEight](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/) aggregates polling data from various pollsters to calculate a weighted favorability rating. After winning the US election, Trump's net favorability (% of people that have a favorable opinion - % that have an unfavorable one) has in... | no | 2024-12-04T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-03T15:30:00Z | resolved | 134 |
30,441 | Will be Donald Trump's net favorability rating on December 27, 2024 be greater than or equal to -6 and less than or equal to -4? | [FiveThirtyEight](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/) aggregates polling data from various pollsters to calculate a weighted favorability rating. After winning the US election, Trump's net favorability (% of people that have a favorable opinion - % that have an unfavorable one) has in... | no | 2024-12-04T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-03T15:30:00Z | resolved | 135 |
30,440 | Will be Donald Trump's net favorability rating on December 27, 2024 be greater than -4? | [FiveThirtyEight](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/) aggregates polling data from various pollsters to calculate a weighted favorability rating. After winning the US election, Trump's net favorability (% of people that have a favorable opinion - % that have an unfavorable one) has in... | yes | 2024-12-04T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-03T15:30:00Z | resolved | 136 |
30,436 | Will a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah be active on January 1, 2025? | Tensions between Israel and Hezbollah, a Lebanese militant group, have escalated dramatically. In July 2024, Hezbollah [launched over 200 rockets](https://apnews.com/article/lebanon-hezbollah-israel-rocket-5358640d72d7bbbe59b1a0f21dc713ba) into Israel in retaliation for the killing of one of its senior commanders by an... | annulled | 2024-12-03T22:43:00Z | 2024-12-03T15:30:00Z | resolved | 140 |
30,396 | Will the US Federal Reserve's balance sheet have under $4.3 trillion in U.S. treasury securities at the end of December 2024? | Forbes: [The Fed’s SVB Like Woes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/shivaramrajgopal/2024/07/08/the-feds-svb-like-woes/) | annulled | 2024-12-03T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-02T15:30:00Z | resolved | 143 |
30,395 | Will the US Federal Reserve's balance sheet have under $550 billion in reverse repurchase agreements at the end of December 2024? | TrendForce: [Fed’s Reverse Repo Shrinks Significantly: Is Market Liquidity at Risk ?](https://www.trendforce.com/news/2024/11/11/news-feds-reverse-repo-shrinks-significantly-is-market-liquidity-at-risk/) | no | 2024-12-03T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-02T15:30:00Z | resolved | 144 |
30,394 | Will the US Federal Reserve's balance sheet have less than $6.8 trillion in assets at the end of December 2024? | Reuters: [Fed's Powell says balance sheet drawdown continues amid rate cuts](https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/feds-powell-says-balance-sheet-drawdown-continues-amid-rate-cuts-2024-09-18/) | no | 2024-12-03T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-02T15:30:00Z | resolved | 145 |
30,391 | Will Ghana declare a winner in its presidential election before December 17, 2024? | [Ghana’s December 2024 elections put the resilience of the country’s vaunted democracy to the test](https://afripoli.org/ghanas-december-2024-elections-put-the-resilience-of-the-countrys-vaunted-democracy-to-the-test) | [Ghana 2024 Elections: A Risk Assessment of the Online Information Space](https://www.iri.org/resour... | annulled | 2024-12-02T23:04:00Z | 2024-12-02T15:30:00Z | resolved | 148 |
30,390 | Will Nancy Pelosi's stock portfolio beat the return of Congressman Donald Beyer's portfolio in 2024? | Benzinga: [Edward Snowden Contrasts Warren Buffett's Investment Skills with Nancy Pelosi, Dan Meuser: 'Fortunate to Be Represented by Extraordinary Talents](https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/03/38016319/edward-snowden-contrasts-warren-buffetts-investment-skills-with-nancy-pelosi-dan-meuser-fortunate-to) | annulled | 2024-12-03T13:41:00Z | 2024-12-02T15:30:00Z | resolved | 149 |
30,387 | Will the BLS report an increase in nonfarm payroll numbers of ≥175,000 for November 2024? | TrendForce: [Has the U.S. Labor Market Truly Deteriorated Amid the Sharp Decline in Nonfarm Payrolls?](https://www.trendforce.com/news/2024/11/05/news-has-the-u-s-labor-market-truly-deteriorated-amid-the-sharp-decline-in-nonfarm-payrolls/): "The recently released U.S. nonfarm payroll data showed unusually weak growth, ... | yes | 2024-12-03T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-02T15:30:00Z | resolved | 152 |
30,386 | Will the BLS report an increase in nonfarm payroll numbers of ≥75,000 for November 2024? | TrendForce: [Has the U.S. Labor Market Truly Deteriorated Amid the Sharp Decline in Nonfarm Payrolls?](https://www.trendforce.com/news/2024/11/05/news-has-the-u-s-labor-market-truly-deteriorated-amid-the-sharp-decline-in-nonfarm-payrolls/): "The recently released U.S. nonfarm payroll data showed unusually weak growth, ... | yes | 2024-12-03T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-02T15:30:00Z | resolved | 153 |
30,385 | Will the BLS report an increase in nonfarm payroll numbers for November 2024? | TrendForce: [Has the U.S. Labor Market Truly Deteriorated Amid the Sharp Decline in Nonfarm Payrolls?](https://www.trendforce.com/news/2024/11/05/news-has-the-u-s-labor-market-truly-deteriorated-amid-the-sharp-decline-in-nonfarm-payrolls/): "The recently released U.S. nonfarm payroll data showed unusually weak growth, ... | yes | 2024-12-03T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-02T15:30:00Z | resolved | 154 |
30,351 | Will the median person on Bloomberg's Billionaires Index be from the United States on December 20, 2024? | On Nomember 22, 2024, of the 10 individuals ranked 246-255 on Bloomberg's list, 6 were from the United States. On the entire list, 190 out of 500 indivduals were from the United States. | yes | 2024-11-30T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-29T15:30:00Z | resolved | 159 |
30,319 | Will the CDC report less than 50 cases of H5N1 in persons tested in the United States before January 1, 2025? | According to CDC at the resolution source, "Several recent A(H5) cases have been reported in the U.S. The CDC has been unable to isolate the virus from the recent human cases. As a result, CDC has been unable to determine the virus's neuraminidase subtype or whether it is likely an N1." | annulled | 2024-11-28T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-27T15:30:00Z | resolved | 177 |
30,316 | Will Calin Georgescu win the second round of the 2024 presidential election in Romania? | The first round of the 2024 Presidential Elections in Romania was full of surprises. None of the candidates that were favourites at the beginning of the year, judged by two different [Metaculus](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21495/romanian-president-2024/) [questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/22905/rom... | annulled | 2024-11-28T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-27T15:30:00Z | resolved | 180 |
30,315 | Will Elena Lasconi win the second round of the 2024 presidential election in Romania? | The first round of the 2024 Presidential Elections in Romania was full of surprises. None of the candidates that were favourites at the beginning of the year, judged by two different [Metaculus](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21495/romanian-president-2024/) [questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/22905/rom... | annulled | 2024-11-28T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-27T15:30:00Z | resolved | 181 |
30,289 | Will the temperature in Phoenix, AZ remain below 80 degrees F in the entire month of December 2024? | In December 2022, the highest High was 74 F and in December 2023 it was 84. According to [Iowa State University](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/), "The Iowa Environmental Mesonet (IEM) collects environmental data from cooperating members with observing networks. The data are stored and made available on this website... | no | 2024-11-27T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-26T15:30:00Z | resolved | 185 |
30,285 | Will the temperature in New York, NY ever go below 25 degrees F in the entire month of December 2024? | In December 2022, this occurred, but in December 2023 it did not. According to [Iowa State University](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/), "The Iowa Environmental Mesonet (IEM) collects environmental data from cooperating members with observing networks. The data are stored and made available on this website." | yes | 2024-11-27T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-26T15:30:00Z | resolved | 189 |
30,270 | How many executive orders will Joe Biden sign after Election Day and before January 1, 2025? | According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_order):
>In the United States, an executive order is a directive by the president of the United States that manages operations of the federal government.The legal or constitutional basis for executive orders has multiple sources. Article Two of the Unit... | 4 or more | 2024-12-20T05:01:00Z | 2024-12-06T15:30:00Z | resolved | 194 |
30,266 | Who will win the second round of the 2024 presidential election in Romania? | The first round of the 2024 Presidential Elections in Romania was full of surprises. None of the candidates that were favourites at the beginning of the year, judged by two different [Metaculus](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21495/romanian-president-2024/) [questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/22905/rom... | annulled | 2024-12-06T19:44:00Z | 2024-11-26T15:30:00Z | resolved | 198 |
30,257 | Will the year-over-year increase in rent in Providence, RI in November 2024 be greater than or equal to 5.0%, according to Zillow? | According to Zillow, housing data is updated on the 12th of each month. | yes | 2024-11-26T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-25T15:30:00Z | resolved | 199 |
30,256 | Will the year-over-year increase in rent in Los Angeles, CA in November 2024 be greater than or equal to 2.0%, according to Zillow? | According to Zillow, housing data is updated on the 12th of each month. | yes | 2024-11-26T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-25T15:30:00Z | resolved | 200 |
30,255 | Will the year-over-year increase in rent in Orlando, FL in November 2024 be greater than or equal to 1.0%, according to Zillow? | According to Zillow, housing data is updated on the 12th of each month. | yes | 2024-11-26T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-25T15:30:00Z | resolved | 201 |
30,254 | Will the year-over-year increase in prices of homes in Baltimore, MD in November 2024 be greater than or equal to 2.0%, according to Zillow? | According to Zillow, housing data is updated on the 12th of each month. | yes | 2024-11-26T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-25T15:30:00Z | resolved | 202 |
30,253 | Will the year-over-year increase in prices of homes in Dallas, TX in November 2024 be greater than or equal to 0.0%, according to Zillow? | According to Zillow, housing data is updated on the 12th of each month. | no | 2024-11-26T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-25T15:30:00Z | resolved | 203 |
30,252 | Will the year-over-year increase in prices of homes in Hartford, CT in November 2024 be greater than or equal to 7.0%, according to Zillow? | According to Zillow, housing data is updated on the 12th of each month. | no | 2024-11-26T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-25T15:30:00Z | resolved | 204 |
30,250 | Will the domestic opening weekend box office revenue of Y2K, scheduled to open December 6, 2024, exceed $5,000,000? | [BoxOfficeTheory](https://boxofficetheory.com/5-week-tracking-forecasts-kraven-the-hunter-lord-of-the-rings-the-war-of-the-rohirrim-and-a-big-moana-2-update/), a movie forecasting company, is withholding forecasts on Y2K until more information is available. IMDB [describes](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt27218960/) the m... | no | 2024-11-26T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-25T15:30:00Z | resolved | 206 |
30,249 | Will SpaceX fail to make any new posts on its Updates page before January 1, 2025? | As of November 22, 2024, SpaceX's most recent post was timestamped September 10, 2024. | annulled | 2024-11-26T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-25T15:30:00Z | resolved | 207 |
30,200 | Will Virgin Galactic fail to make make any new posts on its News page before January 1, 2025? | As of November 20, 2024, Virgin Galactic's most recent post was timestamped July 10, 2024. | no | 2024-11-23T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-22T15:30:00Z | resolved | 213 |
30,195 | Will Ukraine use ATACMS to strike deep within Russia before 1 January 2025? | On November 17, 2024, Joe Biden [authorised](https://apnews.com/article/biden-ukraine-long-range-weapons-russia-52d424158182de2044ecc8bfcf011f9c) Ukraine to utilise the MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) for strikes deep within Russian territory. This marks a significant shift in US policy, as previous restr... | ambiguous | 2024-11-23T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-22T15:30:00Z | resolved | 218 |
30,193 | Will the domestic opening weekend box office revenue of Mufasa: The Lion King exceed that of Sonic the Hedgehog 3? | [*Mufasa: The Lion King*](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt13186482/) is an upcoming American musical drama film directed by Barry Jenkins. It serves as a prequel to the 2019 adaptation of *The Lion King*, which grossed $191 million domestically in its opening weekend, ranking among the top 10 of all time. [*Sonic the Hedg... | no | 2024-11-23T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-22T15:30:00Z | resolved | 220 |
30,162 | Will the Mt Seymour ski resort be listed as Open by On the Snow's Ski Report on December 13, 2024? | Vancouver Sun: [PSA: Metro Vancouver ski hills just received the first snow of the season](https://vancouversun.com/news/psa-metro-vancouver-ski-hills-just-received-the-first-snow-of-the-season) "Weather experts are also betting on a snowier winter this year compared to last year" | no | 2024-11-22T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-21T15:30:00Z | resolved | 224 |
30,159 | Will the yield curve be non-inverted on Friday December 27, 2024? | As of Wednesdays November 20, 2024, the value shown was 0.10. | yes | 2024-11-22T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-21T15:30:00Z | resolved | 227 |
30,158 | Will Comex Gold Spot prices remain below $2,800 per ounce through December 27, 2024, according to Yahoo Finance? | According to [CBS News](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/the-best-gold-investments-to-make-before-2025-experts-say/): "Gold shattered historic records in 2024, hitting $2,790 per ounce in October, its upward price trajectory stemming from heavy central bank buying, ongoing inflation concerns and expected Federal Reserve ra... | yes | 2024-11-22T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-21T15:30:00Z | resolved | 228 |
30,156 | Will lithium carbonate (CNY/T) prices continuously remain above 70,000 before December 21, 2024? | According to TradingEconomics: "Lithium carbonated rose to CNY 79,000 per tonne after having traded near the three-year low of CNY 71,000 through late October, benefiting from supply curbs and an uptick in demand. The Chinese government enacted subsidies allowing people to trade older cars for electric vehicles in thei... | yes | 2024-11-22T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-21T15:30:00Z | resolved | 230 |
30,155 | Will the domestic opening weekend box office revenue of The Lord of The Rings: The War of the Rohirrim, scheduled to open December 13, 2024, exceed $20,000,000? | According to [BoxOfficeTheory](https://boxofficetheory.com/5-week-tracking-forecasts-kraven-the-hunter-lord-of-the-rings-the-war-of-the-rohirrim-and-a-big-moana-2-update/), a movie forecasting company, The Lord of The Rings: The War of the Rohirrim is expected to have an opening weekend of $20 million. Box Office Mojo ... | no | 2024-11-22T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-21T15:30:00Z | resolved | 231 |
30,124 | Will the domestic opening weekend box office revenue of Kraven the Hunter, scheduled to open December 13, 2024, exceed $20,000,000? | According to [BoxOfficeTheory](https://boxofficetheory.com/5-week-tracking-forecasts-kraven-the-hunter-lord-of-the-rings-the-war-of-the-rohirrim-and-a-big-moana-2-update/), a movie forecasting company, Kraven the Hunter is expected to have an opening weekend of $20 million. Box Office Mojo generally [defines](https://h... | no | 2024-11-21T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-20T15:30:00Z | resolved | 239 |
30,105 | By how many billion USD will Elon Musk’s net worth differ from the highest other net worth on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires list as of January 1, 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/29608/how-much-richer-will-musk-be-than-everyone-on-jan-1-2025/ crosspost for Brown group | annulled | 2024-11-21T23:29:00Z | 2024-11-21T21:09:00Z | resolved | 244 |
30,104 | Will Bitcoin dominance exceed 63.0% on any single day in November or December 2024? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/29900/bitcoin-dominance-630-on-any-day-in-novdec-2024/ crosspost for Brown group | annulled | 2024-11-21T23:33:00Z | 2024-11-21T21:08:00Z | resolved | 245 |
30,103 | Will Astro Bot win the Game of the Year 2024 award? | crosspost of https://www.metaculus.com/questions/29902/will-astro-bot-win-the-game-of-the-year-2024-award/ for Brown | yes | 2024-12-13T05:20:00Z | 2024-11-21T21:06:00Z | resolved | 246 |
30,102 | Will the International Criminal Court issue any warrants in November or December 2024? | reference to https://www.metaculus.com/questions/29903/will-the-icc-issue-any-warrants-in-nov-or-dec-2024/, but for the Brown group | annulled | 2024-01-01T17:00:00Z | 2024-11-21T21:04:00Z | resolved | 247 |
30,091 | Will Astro Bot or Final Fantasy 7 Rebirth win Console Game of the Year in the 2024 Golden Joystick Awards?
| The 2024 nominees for Console Game of the Year are Astro Bot, Dragon’s Dogma 2, Final Fantasy VII Rebirth, Helldivers 2, Prince of Persia: The Lost Crown, and The Legend of Zelda: Echoes of Wisdom | no | 2024-11-20T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-19T15:30:00Z | resolved | 251 |
30,088 | Will the number of active US oil drilling rigs be less than 585 on December 27, 2024? | Baker Hughes [issues](https://rigcount.bakerhughes.com/) US oil rig counts every Friday, and issued oil rig counts to the petroleum industry since 1944. | no | 2024-11-20T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-19T15:30:00Z | resolved | 254 |
30,087 | Will the number of active US oil drilling rigs be greater than or equal to 585 and less than or equal to 590 on December 27, 2024? | Baker Hughes [issues](https://rigcount.bakerhughes.com/) US oil rig counts every Friday, and issued oil rig counts to the petroleum industry since 1944. | yes | 2024-11-20T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-19T15:30:00Z | resolved | 255 |
30,086 | Will the number of active US oil drilling rigs exceed 590 on December 27, 2024? | Baker Hughes [issues](https://rigcount.bakerhughes.com/) US oil rig counts every Friday, and issued oil rig counts to the petroleum industry since 1944. | no | 2024-11-20T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-19T15:30:00Z | resolved | 256 |
30,084 | Will the number of FBI firearms background checks initiated through the NICS exceed 3.0M for November 2024? | In the long term (since the turn of the 21st Century), firearms sales in the US have risen, surging in 2020, with numbers trending downward since. Starting in July 2024, year-over-year monthly numbers have again begun trending upward. | no | 2024-11-20T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-19T15:30:00Z | resolved | 258 |
30,083 | Will the number of FBI firearms background checks initiated through the NICS exceed 2.8M for November 2024? | In the long term (since the turn of the 21st Century), firearms sales in the US have risen, surging in 2020, with numbers trending downward since. Starting in July 2024, year-over-year monthly numbers have again begun trending upward. | no | 2024-11-20T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-19T15:30:00Z | resolved | 259 |
30,082 | Will the number of FBI firearms background checks initiated through the NICS exceed 2.6M for November 2024? | In the long term (since the turn of the 21st Century), firearms sales in the US have risen, surging in 2020, with numbers trending downward since. Starting in July 2024, year-over-year monthly numbers have again begun trending upward. | no | 2024-11-20T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-19T15:30:00Z | resolved | 260 |
30,081 | Will the number of FBI firearms background checks initiated through the NICS exceed 2.4M for November 2024? | In the long term (since the turn of the 21st Century), firearms sales in the US have risen, surging in 2020, with numbers trending downward since. Starting in July 2024, year-over-year monthly numbers have again begun trending upward.` | yes | 2024-11-20T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-19T15:30:00Z | resolved | 261 |
30,059 | Will Ukraine use ATACMS to strike deep within Russia before 1 January 2025? | On November 17, 2024, Joe Biden [authorised](https://apnews.com/article/biden-ukraine-long-range-weapons-russia-52d424158182de2044ecc8bfcf011f9c) Ukraine to utilise the MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) for strikes deep within Russian territory. This marks a significant shift in US policy, as previous restr... | ambiguous | 2024-12-19T23:44:00Z | 2024-11-21T15:30:00Z | resolved | 265 |
30,012 | Will the domestic opening weekend box office revenue of Mufasa: The Lion King exceed that of Sonic the Hedgehog 3? | [*Mufasa: The Lion King*](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt13186482/) is an upcoming American musical drama film directed by Barry Jenkins. It serves as a prequel to the 2019 adaptation of *The Lion King*, which grossed $191 million domestically in its opening weekend, ranking among the top 10 of all time. [*Sonic the Hedg... | no | 2024-12-19T23:00:00Z | 2024-11-21T15:30:00Z | resolved | 266 |
29,998 | Will Lainey Wilson or Chris Stapleton win the 2024 CMA Award for Single of the Year? | [58th Annual Country Music Association Awards](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/58th_Annual_Country_Music_Association_Awards) | yes | 2024-11-19T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-18T15:30:00Z | resolved | 267 |
29,996 | Will the Federal Register list 3 or more executive orders by President Joe Biden for December 2024? | Ballotpedia: [Joe Biden's executive orders and actions](https://ballotpedia.org/Joe_Biden%27s_executive_orders_and_actions) | yes | 2024-11-19T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-18T15:30:00Z | resolved | 269 |
29,995 | Will the Federal Register list 1 or 2 executive orders by President Joe Biden for December 2024? | Ballotpedia: [Joe Biden's executive orders and actions](https://ballotpedia.org/Joe_Biden%27s_executive_orders_and_actions) | no | 2024-11-19T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-18T15:30:00Z | resolved | 270 |
29,994 | Will the Federal Register list exactly zero executive orders by President Joe Biden for December 2024? | Ballotpedia: [Joe Biden's executive orders and actions](https://ballotpedia.org/Joe_Biden%27s_executive_orders_and_actions) | no | 2024-11-19T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-18T15:30:00Z | resolved | 271 |
29,993 | Will the USDA-posted recall affecting Dearborn Sausage Company, Inc be closed before December 1, 2024? | According to Dayton Daily News on [September 12, 2024](https://www.daytondailynews.com/local/beef-pork-wiener-label-mix-up-leads-to-recall-undeclared-allergen/OU4NXTZP7VGX5KFQD64OPADGFE/), About 1,944 pounds of ready-to-eat wieners have been recalled by the Dearborn Sausage Company Inc. because beef products were label... | no | 2024-11-19T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-18T15:30:00Z | resolved | 272 |
29,986 | Will South Carolina have 400,000 or more residents living in drought on December 31, 2024? | [Nearly four weeks without rain, drought conditions creeping back in South Carolina](https://www.foxcarolina.com/2024/10/24/nearly-four-weeks-without-rain-drought-conditions-creeping-back-south-carolina/) | annulled | 2024-11-18T19:05:00Z | 2024-11-18T15:30:00Z | resolved | 279 |
29,952 | Before January 1, 2025, will the International Criminal Court issue an arrest warrant for Benjamin Netanyahu? | In April 29, 2024, Axios [reported](https://www.axios.com/2024/04/29/netanyahu-biden-icc-arrest-warrants-war-crimes) that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu asked US President Joe Biden to help prevent the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague from issuing arrest warrants for Israeli cabinet officials ... | yes | 2024-11-16T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-15T15:30:00Z | resolved | 284 |
29,951 | Will Violet be the closest color to the 2025 Pantone Color of the Year? | Each December, the Pantone Color Institute reveals its "[Color of the Year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pantone#Color_of_the_Year)", which influences design, fashion, and product development for the following year. This tradition of annual color selection has become a widely anticipated event in creative industries, ... | no | 2024-11-16T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-15T15:30:00Z | resolved | 285 |
29,950 | Will Blue be the closest color to the 2025 Pantone Color of the Year? | Each December, the Pantone Color Institute reveals its "[Color of the Year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pantone#Color_of_the_Year)", which influences design, fashion, and product development for the following year. This tradition of annual color selection has become a widely anticipated event in creative industries, ... | no | 2024-11-16T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-15T15:30:00Z | resolved | 286 |
29,949 | Will Green be the closest color to the 2025 Pantone Color of the Year? | Each December, the Pantone Color Institute reveals its "[Color of the Year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pantone#Color_of_the_Year)", which influences design, fashion, and product development for the following year. This tradition of annual color selection has become a widely anticipated event in creative industries, ... | no | 2024-11-16T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-15T15:30:00Z | resolved | 287 |
29,948 | Will Yellow be the closest color to the 2025 Pantone Color of the Year? | Each December, the Pantone Color Institute reveals its "[Color of the Year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pantone#Color_of_the_Year)", which influences design, fashion, and product development for the following year. This tradition of annual color selection has become a widely anticipated event in creative industries, ... | no | 2024-11-16T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-15T15:30:00Z | resolved | 288 |
29,947 | Will Orange be the closest color to the 2025 Pantone Color of the Year? | Each December, the Pantone Color Institute reveals its "[Color of the Year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pantone#Color_of_the_Year)", which influences design, fashion, and product development for the following year. This tradition of annual color selection has become a widely anticipated event in creative industries, ... | yes | 2024-11-16T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-15T15:30:00Z | resolved | 289 |
29,946 | Will Red be the closest color to the 2025 Pantone Color of the Year? | Each December, the Pantone Color Institute reveals its "[Color of the Year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pantone#Color_of_the_Year)", which influences design, fashion, and product development for the following year. This tradition of annual color selection has become a widely anticipated event in creative industries, ... | no | 2024-11-16T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-15T15:30:00Z | resolved | 290 |
29,944 | Will Astro Bot win the Game of the Year 2024 award? | [The Game Awards](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Game_Awards), launched in 2014 and founded by video game journalist Geoff Keighley, are widely recognized as one of the most prestigious annual events in the video game industry. The Game of the Year (GOTY) award honors a game that delivers the best experience across ... | yes | 2024-11-16T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-15T15:30:00Z | resolved | 292 |
29,943 | Will the International Criminal Court issue any warrants in November or December 2024? | The [International Criminal Court (ICC)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Criminal_Court) was founded in 2002 following the wars in Rwanda and the former Yugoslavia, and it is [intended](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/04/29/icc-israel-warrants-gaza/) as a permanent court to investigate war crimes,... | yes | 2024-11-16T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-15T15:30:00Z | resolved | 293 |
29,911 | Will Kelsea Ballerini or Lainey Wilson win the 2024 CMA Award for Female Vocalist of the Year? | [58th Annual Country Music Association Awards](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/58th_Annual_Country_Music_Association_Awards) | yes | 2024-11-15T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-14T15:30:00Z | resolved | 303 |
29,833 | Will Chris Stapleton win an award in any of these 2024 CMA Awards categories? | [58th Annual Country Music Association Awards](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/58th_Annual_Country_Music_Association_Awards) | yes | 2024-11-14T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-13T15:30:00Z | resolved | 314 |
29,831 | Will the Hudson Bay Mountain ski resort be listed as Open by On the Snow's Ski Report on December 8, 2024? | In 2023 a [historic drought](https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/el-nino-drought-bc-interior-ski-hills-1.7043016) caused [delays](https://www.interior-news.com/local-news/lack-of-snow-forces-hudson-bay-mountain-resort-to-delay-opening-7116185) in opening. | yes | 2024-11-14T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-13T15:30:00Z | resolved | 316 |
29,830 | Will Dogecoin close at $0.420 a share before January 1, 2025? | Dogecoin's intraday price reached $0.43457 on November 12, 2024. See also The Economic Times: [Dogecoin outperforms Bitcoin and Ether, rises 145% since Trump's US election victory](https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/cryptocurrency/dogecoin-outperforms-bitcoin-and-ether-rises-145-since-trumps-us-election-victo... | yes | 2024-11-14T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-13T15:30:00Z | resolved | 317 |
29,829 | Will Lainey Wilson or Luke Combs win the 2024 CMA Award forEntertainer of the Year? | [58th Annual Country Music Association Awards](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/58th_Annual_Country_Music_Association_Awards) | no | 2024-11-14T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-13T15:30:00Z | resolved | 318 |
29,782 | Will the US sanction Venezuelan oil again by 2025?
| According to [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/us-easing-venezuela-oil-sanctions-response-election-deal-official-2023-10-18/):
> The Biden administration...broadly eased sanctions on Venezuela's oil sector in response to a deal reached between the government and opposition parties for the 2024 election ... | annulled | 2024-11-12T22:34:00Z | 2024-11-12T15:30:00Z | resolved | 323 |
29,779 | Will Morgan Wallen win an award in any of these 2024 CMA Awards categories? | [58th Annual Country Music Association Awards](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/58th_Annual_Country_Music_Association_Awards) | yes | 2024-11-13T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-12T15:30:00Z | resolved | 326 |
29,778 | Will Helldivers 2 win in any of these categories at the 2024 Golden Joystick Awards?
| [All the Golden Joystick Award 2024 Nominees](https://www.gfinityesports.com/article/all-the-golden-joystick-award-nominees-2024) | yes | 2024-11-13T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-12T15:30:00Z | resolved | 327 |
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